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Lecture Note 15

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Lecture Note 15

lectoral

Uploaded by

rdx.dad8
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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4.

6
Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution gives the probability of a number of


events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events happen
with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last
event.
For example, a book editor might be interested in the number of words
spelled incorrectly in a particular book. It might be that, on the average,
there are five words spelled incorrectly in 100 pages. The interval is the 100
pages.

The random variable ! = the number of occurrences in the interval of


interest.

Poisson distribution is discrete since the values of the random variable can
be listed.

2
Example

Examples where Poisson distribution would be appropriate:

• Demand for a product within a given time interval.


• Number odf accidents within a given time interval.
• Number of takeoffs and landings per hour at Vancouver International Airport.
• Number of bacteria per petri dish.
• Number of white blood cells in cubic centimeter of blood.
• Number of flat tires in 10000 kilometers of driving.

3
Poisson Distribution Formula

When the Poisson distribution is appropriate, the probability of observing exactly !


number of occurrences per unit of measure (hour, minute, cubic centimeter,
kilometer, etc.) can be found using this formula:

% ! & "# X X X l X 2 I
" #=! =
!!
Where
" # = ! = the probability of exactly x number of occurrences
% = the mean number of occurrences per unit of time, distance, area, or volume
& = a constant value of 2.718
D
Notation for the Poisson: P = Poisson Probability Distribution Function
# ~ "(%)
Read this as "X is a random variable with a Poisson distribution." The parameter
is % (01 2); % (01 2) = the mean for the interval of interest. The standard deviation
of the Poisson distribution with mean µ is σ = %

63µF
4
Example
µ interval of a
interest
An average of three cars arrived at a highway tollgate every minute.yWhat is the
probability that exactly five cars will arrive in a one-minute period? What is the
standard deviation?
b what is the probability that more than 2 cars arrive in a one minute period
Answer:
M
M e
P X x
XT 3
35 bg 243 0498

l008 6
7l8 0
p X 5
a Cz0o

TM fJ 1.7320
2
pCX 5 1 l P X
b P X 2 p X 3 p X 4 30 1
PIX L z
I P X o p
342
L 3012 85
Iif
I 0.0498 1 3 0.0498 91020498 1 57671
0 5
Poisson Distribution Table

There is a table of Poisson probabilities for specified value of % and x, and it gives an
easier way to solve the problems. The columns in the table represent selected
values of %, so our first step is to locate the column with a % value of 3. Having
located that column, we next identify the row with an x value of 5 that corresponds
to the arrival of five cars in our example . The answer to our problem, then, is the
value of 0.1008 that’s found at the intersection of the identified column and row.

mean

O puts

6
Example
M
Getrich Bank records show that an average of 20 people arrive at a teller’s counter
an hour.ofWhat
during interval interest
is the probability that:
I
(a) Exactly 30 will arrive during a one-hour period? X The number of people
(b) Less than five will arrive during a one-hour period? arrive at a teller's counter
(c) More than two will arrive during a one-hour period?
(d) Find the standard deviation. during an hour
X p 20
Answer:
a pfX 3O 0.0083
D 1 D
o do
b p XL 5 plXE4
3
o p X o1 p1X l pCX 2 pCX
p X 4 O 10 0 0 0 01
c p X 21 1 p XE2
2
L pCX O pCX 1 11261
L 0 0 0 2
d 6 TM J 20 4.422 7
Homework J
Police records show that there has been an average of four accidents per week on a
new highway. What is the probability that there are:

a Exactly six accidents in a week?


b Fewer than 3 accidents in a week?
C
What is the variance and standard deviation?

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