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SEPTEMBER 2024
ENERGY, METALS & AGRICULTURE Commodity Price
Surveys Since 1995
CONSENSUS FORECASTS®
WTI Al Cu Ni Pb Zn Sn Fe Au Ag Pt $

Survey Date: September 16, 2024

Energy, Metals and Agriculture Consensus Forecasts surveys up to 40 energy, metals and agriculture analysts every
month for their commodity price forecasts. The results cover almost 50 commodities and include reference data,
analysis, special surveys, and coverage of the global economic outlook.

Page Overview
Several industrial metals (pages 10-15) saw price increases in the
Overview ................................................ 2 run up to our September 16 survey, aided by speculation that the US
Fed would implement a significant rate cut at its September 18 policy
Long-Term Forecasts ............................ 3 meeting. Anticipation of this had the dual benefit of reducing the risks
of a sharp growth slowdown in the world’s largest economy and the
Individual Commodity Forecasts value of the US dollar. A depreciation in the US dollar makes com-
Crude Oil - Brent .................................. 4 modities priced in it cheaper in local currency terms, which could
Crude Oil - WTI .................................... 5 boost demand. As expected, the US Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut
Gasoline, Heating Oil, Gas Oil ............. 6 rather than 25bps, its first reduction since March 2020, allowing met-
Natural Gas (US, EU, UK, and LNG) .... 7 als prices to maintain their recent upward trajectory after our survey
Coal (Lump and Fine) ........................... 8 date. Precious metals (pages 20-23) are also benefitting in the cur-
Uranium, Carbon .................................. 9 rent environment, as rate cuts in the US and elsewhere (and the pros-
pect of further rate reductions) are driving down global bond yields.
Aluminium .......................................... 10 This reduces the cost of holding non-yielding gold (page 20) and
Alumina.............................................. 11 other precious metals, bolstering their appeal as an alternative in-
vestment. Furthermore, investor demand for this asset class also
Copper ............................................... 12
reflects nagging doubts about the health of the global economy, and a
Nickel ................................................ 13
desire to diversify risk. Several major geo-political flashpoints add to
Lead ................................................... 14
investor uncertainty. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to escalate,
Zinc ................................................... 15
with both countries launching long-range attacks into each other’s ter-
ritory, damaging essential infrastructure. In the Middle East the world
Steel .................................................. 16 is anxiously waiting to see whether Hezbollah (which is funded by
Iron Ore (China and Australia) ............ 17 (continued on page 2)
Tin, Cobalt, ........................................ 18
Lithium Carbonate, Lithium Hydroxide, Oil Supply and Demand Volumes:
Lithium Spodumene, Manganese, This month we have updated our Survey on Crude Oil Vol-
Molybdenum, Rutile, Ilmenite, Zircon...19 umes - Supply and Demand (page 4), with consensus
forecast updates through to Q2 2025.
Gold ................................................... 20 Selected Commodity Price Trends
Silver ................................................. 21 Index
140 European Natural
Platinum ............................................ 22 January 1, 2024 = 100
Gas (EU TTF)
Palladium ........................................... 23 130
Copper
Wheat, Corn ....................................... 24 120
Crude Oil
Soybeans, Sugar ............................... 25 (Brent)
Gold
Cocoa, Cotton, Palm Oil .................... 26 110

100
Chart of Commodity Forecasts........... 28
90

80 Wheat
Our next issue of Energy, Metals & Agriculture
Consensus Forecasts will be available at the 70
end of the day October 18, 2024 (GMT). Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024

Energy, Metals & Agriculture Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 2756-0406) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Editors: Che-Wing Pang
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom [email protected] Suyin Kan
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 www.consensuseconomics.com Richard Potts
Assistant Editor: Jack Watson
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, photocopying, digitization or otherwise without the publisher’s prior written permission. The Editors and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take any
© Copyright Consensus
responsibility Economics
for the information Inc.
set forth herein, 2024
including the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, suitability or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis. 1
 OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 2024
(continued from front page)
Iran) will retaliate against Israel’s alleged pager blasts in Leba- most exposed to construction activity, namely steel and iron
non, escalating the conflict. In addition, the result of the US ore (pages 16-17) are amongst the worst performers in re-
Presidential election on November 5 is also high in investors’ cent months, and failed to take advantage of the boost re-
considerations, as the radically different policy platform of lated to US rate expectations. Crude Oil (page 4) has also
Republican nominee Donald Trump could produce a signifi- been adversely affected by pessimism over China, as reduc-
cant shift in the industrial and international diplomatic rela- tions in global demand expectations (see our updated survey
tions policies, with potential ramifications for the rest of the on crude oil volumes, page 4) have seen crude prices (Brent
world. Elsewhere, the health of China’s economy remains a and WTI) slump to 3 year lows. This has led OPEC+ to post-
concern, as some believe that the true extent of the country’s pone planned increases in output, despite pressures from
economic slowdown in being understated. A crisis in confi- some members to finally loosen its grip on supply. Ultimately,
dence has been instigated by a collapse in the real estate whilst some commodities have received a boost recently,
sector, for which Beijing is being criticised for doing too little several major headwinds and unknowns continue to loom over
to turn it around. It is no coincidence that the commodities the market, making it difficult to call the next few months.
SUMMARY OF SELECT ENERGY, METALS & AGRICULTURE CONSENSUS FORECASTS
See individual commodity pages Forecast %
% change Spot Price (Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
for mineral specifications Change to
See since end Sep. 16 Consensus Forecasts Sep. 2025
1
Consensus Forecasts for Q4 2024 page Dec. 2023 2024 Mar. 2025 Jun. 2025 Sep. 2025 Quarter

Crude Oil - Brent (US$/bbl) 4 -4.8% 73.96 78.30 77.67 77.68 +5.0%
- WTI (US$/bbl) 5 -1.1% 71.10 74.21 73.82 73.85 +3.9%
US Natural Gas (US$/MMBtu) 7 -5.6% 2.373 3.119 3.203 3.366 +41.8%
1
Coal (Steaming, US$/tonne) 8 -7.0% 134.3 126.0 123.2 121.9 -9.2%
Uranium (US$/lb) 9 -2.4% 79.50 91.61 92.47 93.13 +17.1%

Aluminium (US$/tonne) 10 +7.3% 2505 2495 2511 2540 +1.4%

Copper (US$/tonne) 12 +9.9% 9216 9688 9742 9852 +6.9%
Nickel (US$/tonne) 13 -1.8% 15950 17154 17325 17434 +9.3%
Lead (US$/tonne) 14 -0.6% 2019 2098 2097 2085 +3.3%
Zinc (US$/tonne) 15 +9.7% 2897 2766 2753 2746 -5.2%
Tin (US$/tonne) 18 +26.9% 31895 29857 29647 29177 -8.5%

Steel (HRC, Europe, US$/tonne) 16 -4.4% 700.0 690.4 691.2 685.6 -2.1%
1
Iron Ore (N. China. Fine, US$/tonne) 17 -15.6% 100.8 101.7 98.9 97.8 -3.0%

Gold (US$/troy oz.) 20 +25.3% 25841 2529 2534 2532 -2.0%

Silver (US$/troy oz.) 21 +29.9% 30.91 31.10 31.18 30.95 +0.1%
Platinum (US$/troy oz.) 22 -1.1% 989.0 1094 1110 1137 +14.9%
Palladium (US$/troy oz.) 23 -4.6% 1068.0 1026 1025 1022 -4.3%

Wheat (USc/bu.) 24 -8.4% 578.5 570.6 576.6 571.9 -1.1%

Corn (USc/bu.) 24 -13.5% 410.3 406.0 411.6 414.3 +1.0%

NOTES, ABBREVIATIONS, WEIGHTS AND MEASURES SEPTEMBER 2024

❒ EIA – Energy Information Agency (USA) ❒ e – Estimate
LME – London Metal Exchange na – Not Available
LBMA – London Bullion Market Association fob – Free On Board
LPPM – London Platinum and Palladium Market bbl – Barrel
NYMEX – New York Mercantile Exchange dmtu – Dry metric tonne unit (1/100 of a dry metric tonne)
COMEX – New York Commodities Exchange MMBtu – Millions of British Thermal Units (Btu)
ICE – Intercontinental Exchange
❒ Commodity forecasts on pages 6-28 (pages 4-26 in abridged versions) are listed in descending order of their approximate
1-year percentage change estimates. Consensus forecasts are mean averages of individual quarterly average forecasts.

❒ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and Industrial Production are expressed
as average percentage changes over the previous calendar year unless otherwise indicated.
❒ 1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces ❒ 1 short ton = 0.907 metric tonnes = 2000 pounds

❒ 1kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds ❒ 1 barrel = 42 US gallons

❒ 1,000 kilograms = 1 metric tonne = 2204.6 pounds ❒ 10 Therms of Natural Gas = 1 million Btu = 1MMBtu

❒ 1 long tonne = 1.016 metric tonnes = 2240 pounds ❒ 1 metric/long tonne unit (MTU/LTU) = 1/100 of a metric/long tonne

2 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024

 SEPTEMBER 2024 LONG TERM FORECASTS
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Long-term price forecasts provide a foundation for expected returns from both existing production facilities and those under
development. In addition to their annual forecasts for the years 2024 to 2028 the table below summarises our panel’s
Long-Term 5-10 year average estimates (2029-2033) in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) current year dollar terms.

Consensus Forecasts
See individual commodity US$
Average Long-Term
pages for mineral (US$ Nominal, Annual Averages)
(2029-2033 Average)
specifications
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Nominal Real
Crude Oil - Brent 82.49 81.66 77.64 77.16 76.88 77.00 80.81 70.51
- WTI 77.55 77.69 73.77 73.15 72.94 73.16 76.88 66.34
Natural Gas - US, $ 2.663 2.332 3.310 3.737 3.540 3.587 3.994 3.427
- LNG, $ 14.57 11.61 12.28 11.47 12.11 11.89 14.50 12.05
Coking Coal - Contract 234.9 267.4 242.0 232.7 225.4 215.7 203.1 186.0
Thermal Coal - Contract 203.5 159.9 133.9 121.5 114.9 114.6 124.9 99.43
- Spot 275.6 135.0 123.0 109.2 107.1 105.05 116.3 90.23
Uranium 59.38 89.87 92.47 89.39 86.17 82.82 61.20 59.57

Aluminium 2250 2382 2523 2543 2585 2596 2596 2379

Alumina 345.0 427.2 389.8 379.3 376.9 381.3 386.6 344.0
Copper 8480 9220 9795 9845 10058 10233 9542 8393
Nickel 21483 17014 17351 18032 18787 19135 19914 17700
Lead 2137 2096 2091 2078 2142 2189 2249 1946
Zinc 2646 2703 2752 2670 2740 2757 2891 2570
Cobalt 17.47 15.32 14.01 16.35 18.08 18.60 21.81 20.22
Tin 25880 30111 29505 28980 28803 29271 25800 24024
Manganese 4.771 6.895 6.316 5.163 5.291 5.443 5.273 4.720
Molybdenum 24.71 21.05 19.24 17.33 16.38 15.69 15.02 14.46
Lithium - Carbonate 36.62 13.31 15.22 16.54 17.31 17.49 18.42 17.10
Lithium - Spodumene 3627 1016 1164 1251 1267 1227 1173 1124

Steel - HRC, Europe 774.1 713.3 688.9 707.0 693.4 698.0 519.6 480.7
HRC, USA 918.3 803.0 770.7 779.5 760.3 759.7 691.1 654.3
HRC, China 495.6 449.2 472.2 504.9 522.9 524.8 na 425.0
Iron Ore - Lump (Aust) 116.1 112.7 103.9 95.87 93.03 93.18 90.10 82.00
Fine (Aust) 103.6 99.1 90.53 84.21 81.68 81.86 85.51 66.48
Fine (China) 115.6 109.5 99.0 92.36 89.67 90.29 93.16 80.60

Gold 1943 2338 2531 2427 2336 2317 2407 1985

Silver 23.39 27.94 31.17 30.13 29.42 28.78 28.59 23.67
Platinum 972 978 1121 1166 1240 1269 1348 1205
Palladium 967 984 1022 1001 1012 1062 1264 1011

Wheat - US¢ 646.6 576.7 575.4 583.1 609.5 623.1 652.7 531.1
Corn - US¢ 565.3 420.1 412.1 435.9 459.2 461.0 511.5 419.9

% Change Between 2024 and 2028 % Change Between 2028 and Long-Term Average
(Nominal Prices) (Nominal Prices)
Crude Oil (WTI) Crude Oil (WTI)
Coking Coal Coking Coal
Aluminium Aluminium
Copper Copper
Nickel Nickel
Lead Lead
Zinc Zinc
Iron Ore-Lump (Aus) Iron Ore-Lump (Aus)
Steel - (USA) Steel - (USA)
Gold Gold
Silver Silver
Wheat Wheat

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 3

CRUDE OIL - BRENT SEPTEMBER 2024
Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel
Survey Date Spot
Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 % change Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 Sep-26
(Sep. 16): US$ 73.96
from spot
Standard Chartered 87.00 89.00 92.00 95.00 28.4% 93.00 91.00 93.00 na
ANZ 78.00 87.80 93.60 94.60 27.9% 95.00 95.00 95.00 na
BMO 84.97 85.00 85.00 87.50 18.3% 87.50 87.50 87.50 87.50
Investec 86.00 87.00 87.00 87.00 17.6% 87.00 86.50 86.50 na
Natixis CIB 81.00 80.00 78.00 81.00 9.5% 80.00 74.00 76.00 na
Panmure Liberum 83.00 83.00 81.00 81.00 9.5% 80.00 76.00 79.00 80.00
Australia Dept of Industry 83.64 82.13 81.66 80.92 9.4% 81.07 78.83 78.00 76.55
Deloitte Access Economics 79.35 81.59 80.74 80.35 8.6% 79.89 78.29 77.75 77.75
BNP Paribas 82.00 79.00 75.00 80.00 8.2% 77.00 79.00 82.00 84.00
Budapest Bus. School 75.00 78.00 80.00 80.00 8.2% 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Commerzbank 75.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 8.2% 80.00 na na na
Deutsche Bank 85.00 83.00 80.00 80.00 8.2% 77.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
ISGR 80.00 83.00 85.00 80.00 8.2% 82.00 82.00 77.00 76.00
UBS 83.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 8.2% 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Moody's Analytics 81.39 82.01 80.38 79.88 8.0% 77.37 76.90 76.03 75.48
ICIS 78.21 77.60 78.33 78.51 6.2% 77.44 73.41 74.38 72.57
E2 Economia 75.67 77.50 77.50 77.50 4.8% 77.50 76.88 75.97 75.10
Econ Intelligence Unit 78.00 78.00 77.00 77.00 4.1% 76.00 75.00 74.00 76.00
ING Bank 82.00 80.00 78.00 77.00 4.1% 77.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
Oxford Economics 79.08 78.57 77.84 76.91 4.0% 76.60 76.54 76.56 76.60
Pezco Economics 76.48 75.84 76.04 76.19 3.0% 76.50 76.18 75.55 74.90
BoA Securities 74.00 74.00 76.00 76.00 2.8% 74.00 na na na
Goldman Sachs 77.00 77.00 76.00 75.00 1.4% 75.00 73.00 73.00 73.00
Morgan Stanley 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 1.4% 75.00 na na na
JP Morgan 80.00 82.00 77.00 73.00 -1.3% 69.00 na na na
Capital Economics 74.50 74.50 73.50 72.50 -2.0% 71.00 69.00 66.50 64.00
Bank Julius Baer 75.00 75.00 72.50 70.00 -5.4% 70.00 na na na
Commonwealth Bank 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 -5.4% 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00
P K Verleger 65.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 -5.4% 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00
Macquarie 73.00 70.00 64.00 69.00 -6.7% 72.00 63.82 64.04 64.59
Societe Generale 70.00 70.00 67.50 65.00 -12.1% 62.50 na na na
Citigroup 74.00 65.00 60.00 60.00 -18.9% 55.00 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 78.17 78.30 77.67 77.68 5.0% 76.92 77.55 77.51 75.43
High 87.00 89.00 93.60 95.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 87.50
Low 65.00 65.00 60.00 60.00 55.00 63.82 64.04 64.00
Standard Deviation 5.07 5.63 6.97 7.28 7.77 6.93 7.20 5.53
As of September 16, 2024 Crude Oil Volumes - Supply and Demand Consensus Forecasts
(millions of
World barrels 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2025 Q1 Q2
per day)
Demand 100.50 102.17 103.24 102.43 101.68 102.73 103.50 103.41 103.12 103.86
Supply 101.90 101.90 102.00 102.90 101.70 102.46 103.16 103.28 103.30 103.97
of which:
OPEC 37.70 33.20 32.40 32.50 32.40 32.88 32.90 32.91 33.26 33.50
Russia 11.06 10.68 10.58 10.70 10.86 10.69 10.64 10.67 10.70 10.66
USA 21.05 21.69 22.27 22.60 19.47 21.13 21.29 21.26 20.83 21.57

Supply-Demand Balance 1.40 -0.27 -1.24 0.47 0.02 -0.27 -0.34 -0.14 0.19 0.11
Supply Disruption Lends Support to Oil
Total Oil Supply and Demand Balances Consensus
(millions of barrels per day) Forecasts ² Soft labour market data in the US and China’s
105 10.0 sluggish economy both weighed on crude prices
Supply this month amid concerns over lower demand.
(left scale)
8.0 OPEC+ recently cut its forecast again for global
100
oil demand for this year and next. The Interna-
6.0 tional Energy Agency also lowered its estimate
95 for global oil demand for 2024, but maintained
Implied Stock Change 4.0
(right scale)
its 2025 forecast. Reflecting bearish sentiment
2.0 towards oil, the price of Brent briefly fell below
90
US$70/bbl for the first time since December 2021.
0.0 ² In recent days oil prices have rebounded some-
85 what, supported by disruption to production in
Demand (left scale) -2.0
the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricane Francine.
80 -4.0 However, downward pressure on crude prices
could resume as concerns over weak global de-
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
mand persist. Furthermore, OPEC’s two month
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25
delay to unwinding output restraints has done
Source: International Energy Agency for Historical Data. little to challenge weak market sentiment.
4 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 CRUDE OIL - WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE
WTI Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel
Survey Date Spot Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
(Sep. 16): US$ 71.10 from spot
Standard Chartered 84.00 86.00 89.00 92.00 29.4% 90.00 88.00 90.00 na
ANZ 73.06 82.96 88.98 90.40 27.1% 91.00 91.00 91.00 na
BMO 79.96 80.00 80.00 82.50 16.0% 82.50 82.50 82.50 82.50
Investec 81.00 82.00 82.00 82.00 15.3% 82.00 81.50 81.50 na
Budapest Bus. School 72.00 75.00 78.00 78.00 9.7% 78.00 78.00 78.00 78.00
CIBC 76.30 78.00 78.00 78.00 9.7% 78.00 na na na
Natixis CIB 78.50 77.00 75.00 78.00 9.7% 77.00 71.00 73.00 na
TD Securities 80.00 78.00 78.00 78.00 9.7% 76.00 na na na
Australia Dept of Industry 78.72 77.98 77.15 77.36 8.8% 77.18 74.06 74.59 73.20
Banco de Credito del Peru 77.00 77.00 77.00 77.00 8.3% 77.00 77.00 77.00 77.00
Panmure Liberum 79.00 79.00 77.00 77.00 8.3% 76.00 72.00 75.00 76.00
Moody's Analytics 77.49 77.91 76.49 76.10 7.0% 73.84 73.31 72.61 72.09
UBS 79.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 6.9% 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00
BNP Paribas 78.00 74.00 72.00 75.00 5.5% 73.00 73.00 76.00 79.00
Commerzbank 70.00 70.00 75.00 75.00 5.5% 75.00 na na na
Deutsche Bank 80.00 78.00 75.00 75.00 5.5% 72.00 70.00 70.00 70.00
ISGR 75.00 77.00 80.00 75.00 5.5% 77.00 77.00 72.00 72.00
E2 Economia 71.67 73.75 74.13 74.50 4.8% 74.88 74.61 74.02 73.42
ICIS 73.95 73.30 74.13 74.25 4.4% 72.58 69.10 70.29 67.85
Econ Intelligence Unit 74.00 73.00 73.00 73.00 2.7% 73.00 71.00 70.00 72.00
BoA Securities 70.00 70.00 72.00 72.00 1.3% 70.00 na na na
Oxford Economics 75.08 73.90 72.36 71.49 0.6% 71.21 71.15 70.80 70.47
Pezco Economics 71.37 70.09 70.26 70.40 -1.0% 70.69 70.29 69.58 68.84
Goldman Sachs 72.00 72.00 71.00 70.00 -1.5% 69.00 na na na
Morgan Stanley 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 -1.5% 70.00 na na na
JP Morgan 76.00 78.00 73.00 69.00 -3.0% 69.00 na na na
Capital Economics 71.00 70.50 69.50 68.50 -3.7% 67.00 65.00 62.50 60.00
Bank Julius Baer 72.50 72.50 70.00 67.50 -5.1% 67.50 na na na
Commonwealth Bank 66.00 67.00 67.00 67.00 -5.8% 67.00 67.00 67.00 67.00
P K Verleger 61.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 -8.6% 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00
Macquarie 68.00 66.50 60.00 64.50 -9.3% 67.50 59.63 59.84 60.36
Societe Generale 66.50 66.50 64.00 61.50 -13.5% 59.00 na na na
Citigroup 70.00 61.00 56.00 56.00 -21.2% 51.00 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 74.18 74.21 73.82 73.85 3.9% 73.21 73.79 73.84 71.62
High 84.00 86.00 89.00 92.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 82.50
Low 61.00 61.00 56.00 56.00 51.00 59.63 59.84 60.00
Standard Deviation 5.06 5.51 6.87 7.26 7.64 7.24 7.55 5.96
13 0
Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
Crude Oil (Brent and WTI) 95 As of survey date 95
11 0
Prices, US$/barrel Brent Brent Energy Information.
90 90 90
Admin.,USA (Sep. 5)
85 Consensus 85
70
(Brent)
WTI 80 80
50
75 75
30
70 70
10 US$/bbl ICE Futures (Brent)
Ja n 2 0 2 0 Jan 20 21 Jan 202 2 Ja n 2 0 2 3 Jan 20 24 65 65
US$ Crude Oil Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
95 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
Brent, 3 Month Contract 90 90
90
(ICE) Daily High/Low/Close WTI
85 Energy Information 85
85 Admin., USA, WTI, (Sep. 5)
80 80
80
75 75
75
WTI, Daily Close,
3 MonthContract 70 Consensus 70
70 (NYMEX) (WTI)
65 65
65
NYMEX
US$/bbl
Mar 2024 A pr 2024 Ma y 20 24 Jun 2 02 4 Jul 20 24 A ug 2024 Sep 2024 60
Futures (WTI) 60

70
US Crack Spread Crude oil is refined into numerous saleable products
60 including gasoline and Gas Oil (or heating oil). The crack
US$ per barrel (based on spot prices)
50 spread is used to estimate the profitability of refining
40 the raw material. When the spread is positive, the price
30 of the refined products is above that of crude oil. The
20 chart opposite (based on spot prices) shows a com-
monly used 3:2:1 crack spread, reflecting a ratio of re-
10
finery output of 2 barrels of RBOB gasoline and 1 barrel
0
of US heating oil from 3 barrels of WTI crude oil.
Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 5

 RBOB & EUROPEAN GAS OIL SEPTEMBER 2024
RBOB Gasoline (US) Forecasts, US$/gallon, fob
Survey Date Spot
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
(Sep. 16): US$1.968 from spot
Budapest Bus. School 2.000 2.100 2.200 2.500 27.0% 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500
Goldman Sachs 2.220 2.290 2.480 2.330 18.4% 2.110 na na na
ICIS 2.160 2.190 2.350 2.330 18.4% 2.140 2.220 2.370 2.160
P K Verleger 1.720 1.970 1.970 1.820 -7.5% 1.820 1.820 1.820 1.820
BoA Securities 1.929 1.762 1.810 1.810 -8.1% 1.762 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 2.006 2.062 2.162 2.158 9.6% 2.066 2.180 2.230 2.160
High 2.220 2.290 2.480 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500
Low 1.720 1.762 1.810 1.810 1.762 1.820 1.820 1.820
Standard Deviation 0.198 0.205 0.273 0.321 0.295 0.342 0.361 0.340

US$ Consensus Forecasts for RBOB Gasoline

RBOB Gasoline (US), Spot Price US$/gallon 3.0 3.0
4.5 As of survey date
Energy Information
4.0
Admin.,USA, (Aug. 1)
3.5
2.5 2.5
3.0
Consensus
2.5
2.0
2.0 2.0
1.5
RBOB
1.0
NYMEX Futures
0.5
1.5 1.5
0.0
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Ja n 2 02 0 Ja n 2 02 1 Ja n 2 022 Jan 20 23 Jan 20 24 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

US$RBOB/Heating Oil Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (NYMEX)

Futures Prices For RBOB and Heating Oil
3 .0 As of survey date
3.0 3.0
Heating Oil, Daily Close, US$/gallon
2 .8 Heating Oil
3 Month Contract NYMEX Futures
2 .6 2.5 2.5

2 .4

2 .2 2.0 2.0
RBOB
2 .0
RBOB Gasoline, 3 Month NYMEX Futures
Contract, Daily High/Low/Close 1.5 1.5
1 .8
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Ma r 2 0 2 4 A p r 2 0 2 4 A p r 2 0 2 4 Ma y 2 0 2 4 Ju n 2 0 2 4 Ju l 2 0 2 4 A ug 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

European Gas Oil Forecasts, US$/tonne, fob

Survey Date Spot
(Sep. 16): US$ 642.3 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Budapest Bus. School 680.0 700.0 720.0 720.0 12.1% 720.0 720.0 720.0 720.0
Commerzbank 680.0 690.0 710.0 710.0 10.5% 730.0 na na na
P K Verleger 641.0 682.0 678.0 678.0 5.6% 682.0 682.0 678.0 678.0
BoA Securities 692.9 551.3 566.2 566.2 -11.8% 551.3 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 673.5 655.8 668.6 668.6 4.1% 670.8 701.0 699.0 699.0
High 692.9 700.0 720.0 720.0 730.0 720.0 720.0 720.0
Low 641.0 551.3 566.2 566.2 551.3 682.0 678.0 678.0
Standard Deviation 22.5 70.1 70.5 70.5 82.3 26.9 29.7 29.7

US$ Gas Oil, Europe, Spot Price US$/tonne Gas Oil Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
1700 800 900
1500 As of survey date

1300 Consensus
700 800
1100
900
Gas Oil
700 600 700
Futures (ICE)
500
300 US$/tonne
500 600
100 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
6 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas (US, Henry Hub) Forecasts, US$/MMBtu
Survey Date Spot
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
(Sep. 16): US$ 2.373 from spot
Citigroup 2.600 3.200 4.300 4.600 93.8% 4.600 na na na
Panmure Liberum 3.300 3.800 4.000 4.200 77.0% 4.500 4.700 4.600 4.500
Moody's Analytics 2.850 3.530 4.000 4.130 74.0% 4.240 4.400 4.508 4.514
Capital Economics 2.900 3.200 3.600 4.000 68.6% 4.300 4.400 4.400 4.400
Goldman Sachs 3.100 3.250 4.000 4.000 68.6% 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000
BNP Paribas 2.700 3.500 3.800 3.800 60.1% 4.700 6.000 5.100 4.900
JP Morgan 2.750 3.750 3.300 3.750 58.0% 4.000 na na na
BMO 3.000 3.250 3.250 3.500 47.5% 3.500 4.000 4.000 4.000
Standard Chartered 2.700 3.200 3.500 3.500 47.5% 2.800 3.200 3.700 na
BoA Securities 2.900 3.100 3.000 3.300 39.1% 4.000 na na na
Macquarie 2.300 2.844 2.615 3.236 36.4% 3.709 3.923 3.937 3.971
ICIS 2.720 3.000 2.950 3.210 35.3% 3.510 3.660 3.440 3.400
TD Securities 2.800 3.000 3.100 3.100 30.6% 3.200 na na na
Bank Julius Baer 2.750 3.000 3.000 3.000 26.4% 3.000 na na na
Natixis CIB 2.900 3.300 3.000 3.000 26.4% 3.300 na na na
E2 Economia 2.279 2.448 2.601 2.839 19.6% 2.849 3.016 3.306 3.488
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.280 3.210 2.630 2.740 15.5% 2.950 3.290 2.960 3.230
Budapest Bus. School 2.400 2.500 2.500 2.500 5.4% 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500
Investec 2.200 2.350 2.350 2.500 5.4% 2.500 2.750 2.750 na
Oxford Economics 2.850 2.950 2.560 2.406 1.4% 2.856 3.143 3.042 2.992
Consensus (Mean) 2.714 3.119 3.203 3.366 41.8% 3.551 3.784 3.732 3.825
High 3.300 3.800 4.300 4.600 4.700 6.000 5.100 4.900
Low 2.200 2.350 2.350 2.406 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500
Standard Deviation 0.295 0.387 0.589 0.626 0.710 0.917 0.769 0.713
Asia LNG (Japan Korea Marker) Forecasts, US$/MMBtu
Survey Date Spot Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
(Sep. 16): US$13.674 from spot
Consensus (Mean) 12.84 12.79 11.98 12.00 -12.3% 12.36 11.78 11.34 10.84
High 14.05 15.10 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00
Low 11.00 9.00 8.00 9.00 9.30 8.80 8.30 7.80
Standard Deviation 1.05 1.84 2.53 2.44 2.15 2.58 2.81 2.91
EU Natural Gas Forecasts, Dutch TTF Euro/MWh Individual forecasts available in the Excel Spreadsheet Service
Survey Date Spot Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
(Sep. 16): Eur 34.081 from spot
Consensus (Mean) 37.45 37.93 33.78 33.32 -2.2% 35.72 35.81 34.50 33.69
High 45.00 50.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 46.00
Low 25.00 25.00 22.50 22.50 25.00 24.50 23.50 22.00
Standard Deviation 5.76 6.92 7.04 7.74 7.52 8.42 9.72 10.94
UK Natural Gas Forecasts, UK pence/therm in the Excel. Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
5 .0
US$/MMBtu Euro/MWh US Natural Gas NYMEX
Natural Gas Prices By Region
60.0 350 Futures
4 .0
50.0 300 Consensus
EU Natur al Gas
(right scale) 250 3 .0
40.0 As ia LNG
200 Energy Information
(left scale) 2 .0
30.0 Admin., USA, (Aug. 1)
US Natur al Gas
150
(left scale) As of survey date
20.0 1 .0
100 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
10.0 2024 2025 2025 2 025 2025 2026 2026 202 6
50
Hurricane Francine Disrupts Output
0.0 0
Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
² Excess supply has kept US natural gas prices
low, with prices breaching the US$3.0/MMBtu
US$/MMBtu Natural Gas Futures Daily High/Low/Close US$/MMBtu
1 7 .5 1 7 .5 level on only a few occasions this year. This has
followed a mild winter, reducing a need for the
1 5 .0 1 5 .0
fuel in power generation, and also a reduction in
1 2 .5 1 2 .5 export capacity, keeping gas supplies onshore.
1 0 .0 NYMEX LNG JKM 1 0 .0 ² Hurricane Francine led to supply disruptions in
3 Month Futures, Close the Gulf of Mexico last week, providing a mo-
7 .5 7 .5
NYMEX Henry Hub 3 Month
mentary lift to prices.
5 .0 5 .0
Futures, Daily High/Low/Close ² EU natural gas prices have been volatile in re-
2 .5 2 .5 cent weeks as weak demand, owing to unsea-
0 .0 0 .0 sonably warm weather, counters concerns over
Ma r 2 0 2 4 A p r 2 0 2 4 Ma y 2 0 2 4 Ju n 2 0 2 4 Ju l 2 0 2 4 A u g 2 0 2 4 S e p 2 0 2 4 Russian supply, keeping the market in flux.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 7
COAL SEPTEMBER 2024
Consensus Price for Australian Coking Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
Q4 2024: US$ 254.7 e Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
Q4 from Q4 2024
UBS 275.00 275.00 275.00 275.00 8.0% 275.00 250.00 225.00 225.00
Investec 260.00 255.00 255.00 250.00 -1.8% 250.00 250.00 250.00 na
Macquarie 250.00 250.00 250.00 250.00 -1.8% 250.00 320.00 320.00 320.00
BMO 245.00 245.00 250.00 245.00 -3.8% 240.00 235.00 230.00 227.50
Morgan Stanley 290.00 280.00 250.00 240.00 -5.8% 270.00 260.00 220.00 na
Commonwealth Bank 230.00 230.00 230.00 230.00 -9.7% 230.00 230.00 230.00 230.00
Deutsche Bank 220.00 240.00 230.00 230.00 -9.7% 240.00 230.00 230.00 230.00
Panmure Liberum 245.00 235.00 230.00 225.00 -11.6% 220.00 215.00 210.00 205.00
RBC Capital Markets 280.00 280.00 225.00 225.00 -11.6% 280.00 200.00 200.00 200.00
Australia Dept of Industry 250.87 241.82 230.76 219.91 -13.6% 219.94 209.40 208.96 208.61
BoA Securities 290.00 290.00 200.00 210.00 -17.5% 220.00 na na na
Citigroup 220.00 230.00 220.00 210.00 -17.5% 215.00 na na na

Consensus (Mean) 254.66 254.32 237.15 234.16 -8.0% 242.50 239.94 232.40 230.76
High 290.00 290.00 275.00 275.00 280.00 320.00 320.00 320.00
Low 220.00 230.00 200.00 210.00 215.00 200.00 200.00 200.00
Standard Deviation 24.89 21.41 19.69 18.82 22.92 33.97 33.85 38.00

Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Spot Price
Q4 2024: US$134.28 e Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
#NAME? from Q4 2024
RBC Capital Markets 145.00 135.87 145.00 140.43 4.6% 135.00 135.00 135.00 145.00
Citigroup 145.00 140.00 130.00 135.00 0.5% 135.00 na na na
Deutsche Bank 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 0.5% 135.00 109.90 109.90 109.90
Panmure Liberum 140.00 130.00 135.00 135.00 0.5% 140.00 130.00 132.00 120.00
Investec 134.85 133.38 133.38 127.40 -5.1% 127.40 123.48 123.48 na
Australia Dept of Industry 138.93 136.13 128.13 126.53 -5.8% 124.25 123.13 112.53 111.25
BoA Securities 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 -6.9% na na na na
E2 Economia 132.88 129.51 126.14 122.76 -8.6% 119.39 116.02 112.65 113.99
Goldman Sachs 121.00 122.00 126.00 120.00 -10.6% 115.00 110.00 112.00 105.00
ISGR 136.00 135.00 130.00 120.00 -10.6% 100.00 104.00 102.00 94.00
Morgan Stanley 130.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 -10.6% 120.00 115.00 115.00 na
Commonwealth Bank 150.00 105.00 100.00 117.10 -12.8% 127.74 110.00 90.00 70.00
Macquarie 140.00 120.00 115.00 115.00 -14.4% 120.00 105.00 105.00 110.00
BMO 120.00 110.00 100.00 100.00 -25.5% 100.00 95.00 95.00 95.00
Capital Economics 120.50 112.50 100.00 90.00 -33.0% 92.50 93.50 90.00 86.00

Consensus (Mean) 134.28 125.96 123.24 121.95 -9.2% 120.81 113.08 110.35 105.47
High 150.00 140.00 145.00 140.43 140.00 135.00 135.00 145.00
Low 120.00 105.00 100.00 90.00 92.50 93.50 90.00 70.00
Standard Deviation 9.43 10.72 13.85 13.36 14.62 12.50 14.28 19.49

Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
Q4 2024: US$ 144.3 e 1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
1
Consensus (Mean) 144.34 143.09 131.65 130.40 -9.7% 130.40 129.73 118.39 116.08
High 148.03 148.03 142.00 142.00 142.00 142.00 139.00 139.00
Low 140.00 137.50 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 100.00 100.00
Standard Deviation 2.67 3.81 9.92 9.50 9.50 9.67 15.55 19.39
US$/metric Consensus Forecasts
tonne Coking Coal and Steaming Coal Prices
US$/tonne As of survey date
500
350
450 Aus tr alian Cok ing Coal
300
Australian Coking Coal
400
– Consensus
350
250
300
250 200
Australian Steaming
200 Coal (Spot) – Consensus
150
150
100 100
50
Australian Steam ing Coal Australian Steaming Coal (Contract) 50
0
(Spot) Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

8 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024

 SEPTEMBER 2024 URANIUM & CARBON
Survey Date Spot Uranium U3O8 Forecasts, US$/lb
(Sep. 16): US$ 79.50
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
BoA Securities 120.00 115.00 120.00 125.00 57.2% 120.00 na na na
Citigroup 98.00 105.00 110.00 110.00 38.4% 115.00 na na na
Australia Dept of Industry 94.24 95.85 97.30 98.77 24.2% 100.26 100.96 101.26 101.57
Investec 90.00 94.00 94.00 98.00 23.3% 98.00 105.00 105.00 na
RBC Capital Markets 85.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 19.5% 95.00 95.00 95.00 95.00
BMO 90.00 85.00 85.00 90.00 13.2% 90.00 85.00 85.00 85.00
ICIS 86.48 87.22 88.39 89.56 12.7% 88.43 86.69 86.21 86.83
UBS 85.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 0.6% 80.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
Panmure Liberum 84.00 82.00 80.00 75.00 -5.7% 70.00 65.00 60.00 58.00
Morgan Stanley 79.00 77.00 75.00 70.00 -11.9% 70.00 70.00 60.00 na

Consensus (Mean) 91.17 91.61 92.47 93.13 17.1% 92.67 85.33 83.43 83.57
High 120.00 115.00 120.00 125.00 120.00 105.00 105.00 101.57
Low 79.00 77.00 75.00 70.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 58.00
Standard Deviation 11.49 11.86 14.09 16.39 16.83 14.55 17.31 15.46

US$ Uranium U3O8, Spot Price US$/lb Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
120
Uranium futures began trading on NYMEX in May 105
As of survey date

100
2007 to introduce greater price transparency. Vol- US$/lb
ume is thin due to off-market trading, regulations, 100
Consensus
and its specialised and limited use. 95
80
90
60
85
NYMEX Futures
40 80

75
20 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Carbon Prices, European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS),

Survey Date Spot Euro/tonne, Spot Price
(Sep. 16): EUR 63.2 D e c '2 4 M ar '2 5 J un '2 5 Se p '2 5 % c ha nge D e c '2 5 Ma r '26 J un '2 6 Se p '2 6
from s pot
BNP Parib as 77.00 82.00 85.00 86.00 36.1% 88.00 89.00 91.00 92.00
Co m m erz ban k 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 34.5% 90.00 na na na
Macq u arie 75.00 75.00 75.00 80.00 26.6% 80.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
Pan m u re L ib eru m 70.00 75.00 75.00 80.00 26.6% 80.00 84.00 84.00 88.00
ANZ 78.00 80.00 80.00 77.00 21.8% 75.00 75.00 75.00 na
Citigro u p 65.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 18.7% 75.00 na na na
ISG R 70.00 72.00 74.00 75.00 18.7% 77.00 77.00 79.00 83.00
Natixis CIB 70.00 70.00 68.00 68.00 7.6% 73.00 na na na
P K Verleg er 67.00 67.00 67.00 67.00 6.0% 67.00 68.00 69.00 69.00
Cap ital Eco n om ics 58.00 56.00 60.00 62.00 -1.9% 64.00 66.00 66.00 68.00
Co n sensu s (Mean ) 70.00 72.70 73.90 75.50 19.4% 76.90 78.43 79.14 81.67
Hig h 78.00 82.00 85.00 86.00 90.00 90.00 91.00 92.00
Low 58.00 56.00 60.00 62.00 64.00 66.00 66.00 68.00
Stan d ard Deviatio n 5.93 7.30 7.28 7.85 8.17 9.61 9.79 10.63

Carbon, EU ETS, Spot Price Euro/tonne Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

120
90
EUR/T As of survey date
100
Consensus
80 80

60
70
40 To cut emissions to 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, the
EC has tightened its Carbon Trading System, including a
20 border adjustment tax for imports. The increase in the ICE Futures (EUA)
cost of ‘polluting’ globally is reflected in a surge in the EU 60
0 ETS spot price beginning in 2021. Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

In the current fourth trading phase of the EU ETS, the EU Com- each tonne of CO2 emitted is required, which can either be used
mission sets a cap for the total amount of greenhouse gas emis- or freely traded on various exchanges. The overall emissions cap
sions generated by industries covered by the scheme, and ei- is set to be reduced by 2.2% each year between 2021-2030,
ther allocates or auctions off permits to cover these. A permit for progressively reducing the permits in circulation.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 9
 ALUMINIUM SEPTEMBER 2024
Survey Date Spot Price Aluminium Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US$ 2505 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
BoA Securities 2750 3000 3000 3000 19.8% 3000 na na na
BNP Paribas 2670 2750 2775 2825 12.8% 2950 na na na
Citigroup 2400 2600 2800 2800 11.8% 2800 na na na
Comm erz bank 2600 2700 2700 2800 11.8% 2800 na na na
JP Morgan 2560 2650 2750 2800 11.8% 2750 na na na
Investec 2469 2590 2590 2690 7.4% 2690 2756 2756 na
Macquarie 2450 2550 2580 2650 5.8% 2700 2750 2800 2800
Deutsche Bank 2300 2400 2400 2600 3.8% 2600 2669 2669 2669
UBS 2550 2600 2600 2600 3.8% 2600 2756 2756 2756
Standard Chartered 2560 2580 2575 2590 3.4% 2600 2585 2620 na
Prometeia 2300 2355 2475 2561 2.2% 2602 2635 2632 2639
ANZ 2440 2530 2520 2561 2.2% 2601 2661 2701 na
G oldman Sachs 2500 2500 2520 2552 1.9% 2587 2620 2675 2728
ISG R 2450 2400 2450 2550 1.8% 2660 2475 2499 2600
TD Securities 2425 2469 2469 2535 1.2% 2535 na na na
ICIS 2447 2485 2502 2535 1.2% 2536 2533 2549 2599
BDO Advisory 2500 2520 2550 2520 0.6% 2470 2520 2550 2580
S&P G lobal Mkt Intel 2409 2495 2525 2512 0.3% 2521 2580 2612 2599
Australia Dept of Industry 2440 2460 2480 2510 0.2% 2530 2550 2570 2590
ING Bank 2500 2550 2500 2500 -0.2% 2500 2550 2550 2550
Pez co Economics 2325 2358 2408 2456 -2.0% 2509 2510 2486 2461
Morgan Stanley 2750 2600 2450 2450 -2.2% 2350 2400 2400 na
RBC Capital Markets 2425 2425 2425 2425 -3.2% 2425 2535 2535 2535
Bank Julius Baer 2400 2400 2400 2400 -4.2% 2400 na na na
BMO 2400 2500 2500 2400 -4.2% 2400 2500 2500 2500
O xford Economics 2349 2353 2358 2376 -5.2% 2395 2419 2444 2461
Capital Economics 2430 2375 2325 2275 -9.2% 2225 2175 2125 2075
Moody's Analytics 2274 2216 2239 2223 -11.2% 2194 2186 2173 2150
Panmure Liberum 2100 1950 1950 1950 -22.2% 1950 1960 1960 1960
Consensus (Mean) 2454 2495 2511 2540 1.4% 2548 2515 2525 2514
High 2750 3000 3000 3000 3000 2756 2800 2800
Low 2100 1950 1950 1950 1950 1960 1960 1960
Standard Deviation 137 182 190 203 218 196 209 230

US$/
Aluminium Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
metric tonne As of survey date
4000 2700

3500 LME Futures

2600
3000

2500
2500
Consensus
2000
2400
1500
US$/metric tonne
2300
1000
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
Aluminium 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Prices Bounce Back Ahead of Fed’s Cut
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close ² Aluminium prices have started to bounce back,
US$ tonnes, 000s
2800 LME Warehouse Stocks, 400
reaching US$2505/MT on our survey date. The
Daily (rhs, inverted) resurgence was stimulated by a depreciation
2700 3-Month Future Daily
High/Low/Close (lhs) in the US dollar and bullish investor sentiment
600
2600 in the run up to the US Fed’s interest rate cut
2500
on September 18.
800 ² Moreover, additional upward pressure on prices
2400
is being exerted by an alumina shortage (next
2300
1000
page), raising costs for Aluminium smelters.
2200
² Conversely, disappointing manufacturing and
construction data from China indicates that
2100 1200 there is no immediate signs of a rebound in
Mar 2024 A pr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 Jul 2024 A ug 2024 Sep 2024
domestic demand, after prior data had shown
World Aluminium Supply and Demand May 2024 a clear loss of momentum in the economy.
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Aluminium: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Supply 66.4 67.1 68.3 69.8 70.57 71.34 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 64.8 68.5 68.4 69.2 70.42 71.13 for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Balance 1.58 -1.35 -0.13 0.58 0.15 0.22 Wednesday for 7 months out to 123 months. Con-
tracts Traded: 57,691,693 (2023).
Historical Estimates Source: Australian Government Department of Industry
10 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 ALUMINA & ALUMINIUM ALLOY
Survey Date Spot Price Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Alumina Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Sep. 16): US$ 532.2
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Macquarie 485.0 480.0 480.0 470.0 -11.7% 470.0 465.0 465.0 460.0

RBC Capital Markets 420.0 380.0 440.0 420.5 -21.0% 380.0 380.0 360.0 370.0

Investec 400.0 401.5 401.5 414.2 -22.2% 414.2 421.6 421.6 na

Australia Dept of Industry 396.8 394.0 396.0 398.0 -25.2% 402.0 393.9 397.9 403.0

UBS 400.0 380.0 380.0 380.0 -28.6% 380.0 390.0 390.0 390.0

Morgan Stanley 460.0 400.0 400.0 370.0 -30.5% 370.0 340.0 340.0 na

Panmure Liberum 380.0 355.0 355.0 350.0 -34.2% 350.0 330.0 330.0 330.0

BoA Securities 450.0 348.0 348.0 348.0 -34.6% 348.0 na na na

BMO 357.0 371.0 371.0 344.3 -35.3% 344.3 356.4 356.4 343.2

Consensus (Mean) 416.5 390.0 396.8 388.3 -27.0% 384.3 384.6 382.6 382.7

High 485.0 480.0 480.0 470.0 470.0 465.0 465.0 460.0

Low 357.0 348.0 348.0 344.3 344.3 330.0 330.0 330.0

Standard Deviation 41.1 38.6 41.7 41.7 40.1 44.3 45.3 46.8

Alumina, Metallurgical Grade, Spot Price Alumina Consensus Forecasts v Futures

US$ US$/metric tonne US$/metric tonne
800
600
As of survey date
700 LME Futures
600
500
500

400 Consensus
400
300

200
300
100
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

World Production of Alumina

Alumina is derived from bauxite ore and is used to produce primary alu- (138.6 million tonnes, 2021)
minium at a ratio of two tonnes of alumina per tonne of aluminium. Prices can Producer % of world total
be linked to the LME primary aluminium price. 1. China 54.3%
2. Oceania 15.1%
Aluminium Alloy prices provide a reference basis for the secondary alu-
3. Africa & Asia (ex. China) 9.5%
minium market. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
4. South America 8.7%
20 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
5. Europe (inc. Russia) 7.5%
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7 months
6. North America 1.8%
out to 27 months. Contracts Traded: 888 (2023).
Source: International Aluminium Institute
Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price, LME Aluminium vs Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price Differential
US$/metric tonne US$/metric tonne
2950 1200

Price on Survey 1000

2700
Date: US$2190 800
2450
600
2200
400
1950
200
1700 0
1450 -200
1200 -400

950 -600
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 11

 COPPER SEPTEMBER 2024
Survey Date Spot Price Copper, Grade A, Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US$ 9216 D e c '2 4 M a r '2 5 Jun '2 5 Se p '2 5 % cha nge D e c '2 5 M ar '2 6 J un '2 6 Se p '2 6
from spot
JP Mo rg an 10400 10700 11000 11500 24.8% 11000 na na na
B an k Ju liu s B aer 10000 10250 10750 11250 22.1% 11500 na na na
B o A Secu rities 10250 10500 10500 11000 19.4% 11000 na na na
C itigro u p 9000 9500 10500 10500 13.9% 10500 na na na
In vestec 10251 10362 10362 10472 13.6% 10472 10582 10582 na
UBS 10472 10472 10472 10472 13.6% 10472 11023 11023 11023
G o ld m an Sach s 9210 9210 9690 10400 12.8% 11097 na na na
ANZ 9681 9922 10122 10382 12.7% 10502 10502 10502 na
Mo rg an Stanley 10800 11000 10500 10000 8.5% 9500 9500 9500 na
Eco n In tellig en ce U nit 9220 9550 9800 10000 8.5% 10250 10800 10600 10600
ISG R 9100 9950 9950 10000 8.5% 10000 10000 9970 9990
So ciete G en erale 9250 9500 9500 10000 8.5% 11000 na na na
Stan d ard Ch artered 10120 10125 10100 9990 8.4% 9975 9960 10050 na
R B C C ap ital Markets 9370 9921 9921 9921 7.6% 9921 11023 11023 11023
A u stralia D ep t o f In du stry 9950 9832 9828 9877 7.2% 9898 10011 10023 10019
B N P Parib as 9625 9750 9755 9805 6.4% 10125 na na na
C o m m erz ban k 9500 9500 9500 9800 6.3% 9800 na na na
D eu tsch e B an k 9000 9200 9400 9800 6.3% 10000 10465 10465 10465
IN G B an k 9600 9800 9850 9800 6.3% 9800 9800 9875 9875
Mo o d y's A n alytics 9448 9395 9561 9728 5.6% 9747 9771 9808 9791
IC IS 9679 9709 9686 9687 5.1% 9586 9615 9623 9728
T D Secu rities 9921 9811 9590 9590 4.1% 9480 na na na
O xfo rd Eco no m ics 9250 9347 9453 9495 3.0% 9611 9743 9880 9979
B an co d e C red ito d el Peru 9259 9480 9480 9480 2.9% 9480 9921 9921 9921
Pez co Eco n o m ics 9000 9131 9295 9452 2.6% 9628 9626 9538 9447
Pro m eteia 8967 9039 9117 9305 1.0% 9548 9821 9784 9865
B MO 9000 9000 9000 9000 -2.3% 9000 9250 9250 9250
Macq u arie 9400 9700 9200 9000 -2.3% 8800 8500 8200 8000
C ap ital Eco no m ics 9250 9160 8975 8790 -4.6% 8600 8440 8315 8190
Pan m u re L iberum 9000 9000 8900 8600 -6.7% 8200 7800 7200 6800
S& P G lo b al Mkt In tel 8551 8503 8246 8310 -9.8% 8359 8588 8519 8521
C o n sen su s (Mean ) 9533 9688 9742 9852 6.9% 9898 9761 9711 9583
H ig h 10800 11000 11000 11500 11500 11023 11023 11023
Low 8551 8503 8246 8310 8200 7800 7200 6800
Stan d ard Deviatio n 538 560 606 713 798 848 947 1092

US$ Copper, Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) 10000

Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
11000 US$/metric tonne
US$/metric tonne
10000 Consensus COMEX Futures
9800
9000

8000 9600

7000
LME Futures
9400
6000

5000 As of survey date

9200
4000 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
US Policy Easing Spurs Demand Optimism
Copper 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME
²Copper prices have rallied 2.0% since the start
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
US$ 000s of September, as a weaker dollar and interest
1 1 ,0 0 0 50
3-Month Future,
rate cuts at several major central banks bolstered
1 0 ,5 0 0
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) 100 demand prospects. Yet some uncertainty remains
1 0 ,0 0 0 over the questionable state of the Chinese
150
economy, and potential changes in US indus-
9 ,5 0 0
200 trial policy after November’s election.
9 ,0 0 0
² On the supply front, copper production in Peru is
250
8 ,5 0 0 set to fall short of target this year, according to
LME Warehouse Stocks,
8 ,0 0 0 Daily (rhs, inverted) 300 the goverment. In Chile, the recent agreement
with workers at the Escondida mine should ease
7 ,5 0 0 350
Ma r 20 2 4 A p r 2 0 2 4 Ma y 2 02 4 Ju n 2 0 2 4 Ju l 2 0 2 4 A u g 2 0 2 4 S e p 2 0 2 4
the likelihood of industrial action there, reducing
immediate threats to output.
World Copper Supply and Demand May 2024 Copper: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month
Supply 24.6 24.9 25.3 26.5 27.17 27.58 to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday
Demand 24.9 25.2 25.8 26.5 26.98 27.35 for 7 months out to 123 months. Contracts Traded:
33,883,556 (2023). US Futures Market: COMEX
Balance -0.36 -0.27 -0.53 0.00 0.18 0.23 Pricing: USc/lb Lot Size: 25,000lbs Deliverability:
Historical Estimates Source: International Copper Study Group (ICSG) 24 consecutive months.
12 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 NICKEL
Survey Date Spot Price Nickel Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US$ 15950 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 M ar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
ISG R 16500 19000 20000 20500 28.5% 22500 21920 22066 23278
JP Morgan 18500 19000 19700 20500 28.5% 20000 na na na
Com m erz bank 17000 18000 19000 19000 19.1% 19000 na na na
Australia Dept of Industry 18000 18000 18100 18600 16.6% 18800 18800 18800 18800
Macquarie 17000 17500 18000 18500 16.0% 19000 20000 20000 20000
ANZ 17103 17804 18304 18204 14.1% 18125 18385 18805 na
Prom eteia 16246 17572 17775 18078 13.3% 18430 18736 18828 19000
Investec 17196 17637 17637 18078 13.3% 18078 18739 18739 na
Morgan Stanley 16000 16000 17000 18000 12.9% 18000 19000 19000 na
E2 Econom ia 15978 16665 17280 17895 12.2% 18510 19096 19474 19746
BMO 17000 17500 17500 17500 9.7% 17500 18000 18000 18000
BoA Securities 18000 18000 17500 17500 9.7% 17500 na na na
ING Bank 17000 17500 17500 17400 9.1% 17400 17800 17800 17800
ICIS 17056 17060 17199 17330 8.7% 17451 17787 17938 18202
Standard Chartered 18000 17350 17400 17300 8.5% 17000 17000 16900 na
Econ Intelligence Unit 16900 17100 17300 17250 8.2% 17500 18000 18500 19600
O xford Econom ics 16918 16994 16950 17163 7.6% 17254 17439 17644 17821
BDO Advisory 16200 16498 17000 17120 7.3% 17150 17480 17780 17900
Citigroup 15500 16000 17000 17000 6.6% 16000 na na na
Deutsche Bank 16000 17000 17000 17000 6.6% 17000 17268 17268 17268
TD Securities 17527 16976 16976 16976 6.4% 16976 na na na
S&P G lobal Mkt Intel 16314 17105 16748 16666 4.5% 16514 17281 16886 16711
Capital Econom ics 17115 17315 16940 16565 3.9% 16190 16000 16000 16000
UBS 16535 16535 16535 16535 3.7% 16535 17637 17637 17637
Pez co Econom ics 16328 16402 16454 16497 3.4% 16575 16476 16293 16105
BNP Paribas 16900 16625 16250 15915 -0.2% 16005 na na na
G oldm an Sachs 16650 16387 16137 15873 -0.5% 15600 na na na
RBC Capital Markets 15432 15432 15432 15432 -3.2% 15432 17637 17637 17637
Panm ure Liberum 17000 16500 15800 15200 -4.7% 15200 15000 15000 15000
Consensus (Mean) 16824 17154 17325 17434 9.3% 17490 17976 18045 18139
High 18500 19000 20000 20500 22500 21920 22066 23278
Low 15432 15432 15432 15200 15200 15000 15000 15000
Standard Deviation 737 821 1019 1244 1505 1410 1477 1846

US$ Nickel Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
50000 US$/metric tonne
18500

40000
Consensus
30000 17500

20000
16500
10000 LME Futures

As of survey date
0 15500
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Nickel 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Swelling Stockpiles Soften Sentiment
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close ² In contrast to other base metals, Nickel prices
US$ tonnes have slumped in the run up to our survey date,
2 2 ,0 0 0 70000
3-Month Future Daily to US$15,950/MT.
2 0 ,0 0 0
High/Low/ Close (lhs) 80000 ² Whilst sentiment may be improving in some
90000
aspects of the global economy following US
1 8 ,0 0 0 rate cuts, industries that are heavy users of
10000 0 Nickel (steel, and large batteries) remain un-
1 6 ,0 0 0
11000 0
der pressure, dulling demand for the metal.
1 4 ,0 0 0
LME Warehouse Stocks, ² Swelling LME stockpiles are indicative of wors-
Daily (rhs, inverted) 12000 0 ening market dynamics. Strong Chinese in-
1 2 ,0 0 0 13000 0 flows have followed the arrival of the first ever
Ma r 2 0 2 4 A p r 2 0 2 4 Ma y 2 0 2 4 Ju n 2 0 2 4 J u l 2 0 2 4 A u g 2 0 2 4 S e p 2 0 2 4 delivery of Indonesia origin nickel, as the coun-
try seeks to boost its control of the market.
World Nickel Supply and Demand May 2024
Nickel prices are closely related to demand from
(in thousands of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts
stainless steel producers who account for about
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 two-thirds of total demand. Futures Market: LME
Supply 2490 2610 3060 3356 3514 3650 Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 6 tonnes Deliv-
Demand 2390 2779 2963 3193 3335 3502 ery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Wednesdays for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then
Balance 100.0 -169.0 97.0 163.0 179 149 every third Wednesday for 7 months out to 63
Historical Estimates Source: International Nickel Study Group (INSG) months. Contracts Traded: 10,357,664 (2023).
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 13
 LEAD SEPTEMBER 2024
Survey Date Spot Price Lead Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US$ 2019
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
UBS 2205 2315 2315 2315 14.7% 2315 2315 2315 2315
Commerzbank 2300 2300 2300 2300 13.9% 2300 na na na
Investec 2205 2227 2227 2249 11.4% 2249 2293 2293 na
ICIS 2231 2211 2207 2201 9.0% 2146 2124 2129 2195
Econ Intelligence Unit 2140 2190 2200 2190 8.5% 2240 2250 2340 2380
ING Bank 2200 2300 2200 2188 8.4% 2188 2150 2150 2150
S&P Global Mkt Intel 2114 2157 2158 2171 7.5% 2181 2189 2186 2187
Standard Chartered 2195 2190 2160 2170 7.5% 2180 2145 2120 na
Banco de Credito del Peru 2161 2138 2138 2138 5.9% 2138 2138 2138 2138
Prometeia 2086 2119 2137 2134 5.7% 2136 2170 2160 2169
Oxford Economics 2070 2085 2106 2113 4.7% 2121 2128 2135 2143
Morgan Stanley 2100 2100 2100 2100 4.0% 2100 2094 2094 na
Citigroup 2000 2000 2100 2100 4.0% 2100 na na na
RBC Capital Markets 2094 2094 2094 2094 3.7% 2094 2094 2094 2094
ANZ 2030 2050 2050 2050 1.5% 2050 2020 1999 na
Macquarie 2100 2050 2050 2050 1.5% 2050 2100 2100 2100
E2 Economia 2013 2022 2030 2022 0.1% 2017 2024 2044 2064
Pezco Economics 2006 2008 2002 1996 -1.2% 1993 1966 1927 1887
Capital Economics 1995 1975 1925 1875 -7.1% 1825 1775 1725 1675
Panmure Liberum 1890 1875 1875 1875 -7.1% 1875 1875 1875 1875
BMO 2100 2000 2000 1800 -10.8% 1800 1700 1700 1700
BoA Securities 2000 1750 1750 1750 -13.3% 1750 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 2102 2098 2097 2085 3.3% 2084 2082 2080 2072
High 2300 2315 2315 2315 2315 2315 2340 2380
Low 1890 1750 1750 1750 1750 1700 1700 1675
Standard Deviation 98 139 134 151 156 161 174 203

US$ Lead Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$/metric tonne
2800 2200

2600 Consensus
2400
2100
2200

2000 LME Futures

2000
1800

1600
As of survey date
1400 1900
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Lead 3-Month Future Prices and Warehouse Stocks,LME Recent Price Swings
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
² Although lead prices have fallen by -1.3% since
US$ 000s their recent high on August 27, there has been
2400 0
some bounceback in the past week, driven by
2300
3-Month Future Daily 50 seasonal demand in the batteries market. A
High/Low/Close (lhs)
weaker US dollar in the run up to the US Fed’s
2200 100
September 18 rate cut has also helped.
2100 150 ² Some price volatility over the past few months
has been caused by stricter regulations imposed
2000 200 on Chinese battery makers. Authorities have low-
ered the targeted bismuth content in the batter-
1900 250
LME WarehouseStocks, Daily ies to reduce pollution. This has led to supplies
1800 (rhs, inverted) 300 that do not meet the specifications being di-
Mar 2024 A pr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 Jul 2024 A ug 2024 Sep 2024 verted to alternative markets.
World Lead Supply and Demand May 2024 The price of Lead, which is used mainly for batter-
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts ies, can be related to that of zinc as the metals are
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 co-produced. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
Supply 12.3 12.7 12.5 13.5 14.27 14.52 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
12.1 12.7 12.6 13.4 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 14.15 14.61
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Balance 0.16 0.06 -0.13 0.04 0.13 -0.09 Wednesday for 7 months out to 63 months.
Historical Estimates Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) Contracts Traded: 15,151,467 (2023).
14 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 ZINC
Survey Date Spot Price Zinc, Special High Grade, Forecasts, US$/MT, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US$ 2897 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Citigroup 2800 2900 3000 3000 3.6% 2900 na na na
JP Morgan 2900 2900 2950 3000 3.6% 3100 na na na
Investec 2822 2910 2910 2976 2.8% 2976 3031 3031 na
Standard Chartered 3000 3015 3090 2960 2.2% 2810 2800 2800 na
BNP Paribas 2920 2955 2930 2950 1.8% 3075 na na na
Commerzbank 2800 2900 2900 2900 0.1% 2900 na na na
BDO Advisory 2770 2820 2800 2850 -1.6% 2750 2800 2830 2880
Deutsche Bank 2700 2800 2800 2800 -3.3% 2800 2669 2669 2669
ISGR 2800 2850 2850 2800 -3.3% 2850 2970 2860 2880
Australia Dept of Industry 2805 2795 2793 2796 -3.5% 2799 2761 2753 2755
Prometeia 2655 2765 2811 2791 -3.6% 2784 2847 2879 2934
ING Bank 2850 2850 2800 2775 -4.2% 2775 2650 2650 2650
UBS 2650 2550 2646 2756 -4.9% 2756 2756 2756 2756
Pezco Economics 2736 2751 2752 2752 -5.0% 2757 2748 2733 2717
BoA Securities 3000 2750 2500 2750 -5.1% 2750 na na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 2870 2950 2900 2720 -6.1% 2600 2520 2450 2670
Morgan Stanley 3000 2800 2750 2700 -6.8% 2700 2800 2800 na
BMO 2700 2700 2700 2700 -6.8% 2700 2725 2725 2725
S&P Global Mkt Intel 2775 2767 2710 2689 -7.1% 2664 2640 2627 2622
Banco de Credito del Peru 2690 2646 2646 2646 -8.6% 2646 2712 2712 2712
RBC Capital Markets 2646 2646 2646 2646 -8.7% 2646 2646 2646 2646
Oxford Economics 2676 2625 2608 2608 -10.0% 2619 2633 2655 2668
ANZ 2740 2641 2601 2601 -10.2% 2630 2680 2701 na
ICIS 2522 2515 2513 2502 -13.6% 2628 2666 2674 2680
Macquarie 2900 2800 2700 2500 -13.7% 2500 2450 2450 2450
Panmure Liberum 2600 2500 2500 2500 -13.7% 2500 2450 2450 2450
Capital Economics 2670 2575 2525 2475 -14.6% 2425 2375 2325 2275
Consensus (Mean) 2778 2766 2753 2746 -5.2% 2742 2697 2690 2674
High 3000 3015 3090 3000 3100 3031 3031 2934
Low 2522 2500 2500 2475 2425 2375 2325 2275
Standard Deviation 125 141 159 157 161 158 162 160

US$ Zinc, Special High Grade Spot Price (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
3000
5000 US$/metric tonne
4500
2900
4000
LME Futures
3500
2800
3000
2500 Consensus
2700
2000
1500 As of survey date
2600
1000 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Zinc Rallys on Fed Easing Cycle

Zinc 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME
² Zinc prices have rallied sharply recently, sur-
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
US$ 000s passing the $2800/mt mark as a weakening
3200 0
3-Month Future Daily High/ US$ and expectations of a US rate cut pro-
3000 Low/Close (lhs) vided upside price momentum.
100 ² Russia’s largest zinc mine, Ozernoye, recently
2800 opened its processing plant after the start of
production was delayed last year because of
2600 200
damage to machinery caused by a fire. West-
2400 ern sanctions also delayed the plant’s open-
LME Warehouse Stocks, 300 ing. Ozernoye is expected to help to ease glo-
2200 Daily (rhs, inverted) bal supply tightness of zinc raw materials. A
2000 400 downturn in sectors like construction has weak-
Mar 2024 A pr 2024 May 2024 Jun 2024 Jul 2024 A ug 2024 Sep 2024 ened demand for refined zinc.
World Zinc Supply and Demand May 2024
Zinc’s primary use is in galvanising steel. Futures
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts
Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 25 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Dates: Daily for cash
Supply 13.8 13.9 13.4 14.0 14.28 14.52 to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Demand 13.3 14.0 13.4 14.0 14.35 14.59 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7
Balance 0.49 -0.13 -0.07 0.05 -0.07 -0.07 months out to 63 months. Contracts Traded:
Historical Estimates Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) 22,919,206 (2023).
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 15
 STEEL OCTOBER2024
SEPTEMBER 2007
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (Europe, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Sep. 16): US$ 700.0 e
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
MEPS 630.0 725.0 775.0 755.0 7.9% 750.0 820.0 860.0 840.0
S&P Global Mkt Intel 675.0 695.0 730.0 737.0 5.3% 739.7 779.9 792.9 781.6
ISGR 695.0 700.0 710.0 705.0 0.7% 700.0 690.0 690.0 690.0
Capital Economics 630.0 660.0 675.0 690.0 -1.4% 700.0 710.0 725.0 740.0
Macquarie 620.0 680.0 680.0 680.0 -2.9% 680.0 720.0 720.0 720.0
BoA Securities 756.0 782.0 698.0 679.0 -3.0% 714.0 na na na
Oxford Economics 634.2 629.0 635.3 637.5 -8.9% 647.7 654.9 662.7 666.0
Panmure Liberum 679.2 652.0 626.0 600.9 -14.2% 576.9 553.8 531.7 510.4

Consensus (Mean) 664.9 690.4 691.2 685.6 -2.1% 688.5 704.1 711.7 706.8

High 756.0 782.0 775.0 755.0 750.0 820.0 860.0 840.0

Low 620.0 629.0 626.0 600.9 576.9 553.8 531.7 510.4
Standard Deviation 46.1 47.8 48.8 49.9 55.4 86.3 103.4 104.2

Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (USA, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/short ton, fob
(Sep. 16): US$ 755.0 e Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 737.1 792.3 779.6 756.8 0.2% 753.9 792.3 783.5 779.0
High 775.0 870.0 910.0 850.0 850.0 960.0 1020.0 1000.0
Low 700.0 695.9 668.1 641.3 615.7 591.1 567.4 544.7
Standard Deviation 27.7 66.4 74.3 59.6 66.9 100.4 118.9 121.4

Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (China, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Sep. 16): US$395.0 e Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Consensus (Mean) 1 448.1 465.3 470.0 474.5 20.1% 479.1 497.8 503.2 497.5
High 504.0 510.0 510.0 510.0 510.0 560.0 600.0 580.0
Low 385.0 400.0 425.0 448.0 450.2 445.0 425.0 410.0
Standard Deviation 43.3 42.9 32.0 23.8 23.2 51.0 66.2 64.6
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.

Steel – Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices (Estimates from MEPS) Downbeat Industry Sentiment Drags Demand
US$/tonne
² Chinese steel prices continued to tumble in
2000
September, to US$395/MT, an 8 year low. The
1750
1 metric tonne = 1.1023 short tons HRC - USA country’s growing stockpiles after a collapse in
(short ton) demand have seen the market flooded with
1500 HRC - Europe
(metric tonne) cheap metal. This is feeding through to the rest
HRC - China of the world as Chinese steel exports look set
1250
(metric tonne)
to reach an 8 year high.
1000
² Iron ore prices have also fallen sharply, trading
750 near US$90/MT - its lowest level since 2022.
The growing steel supply glut has stemmed the
500
need for continued flows of inputs into the steel-
250 making process, such as Iron ore.
0
Steel Scrap - USA (short ton) ² Elsewhere - despite this week’s interest rate
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan cut by the US Fed, the U.S. construction sec-
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 tor remains hampered by still-high interest rates.
This has led to a downturn in residential and
Steel Production and Consumption (2021) commercial projects that need steel inputs.
Steel Prices are generally set in contracts be-
Producers % of world total Consumers % of world total tween major producers and their clients. How-
1. China 52.9 1. China 51.9 ever, the London Metal Exchange offers a
2. India 6.1 2. India 5.8 number of steel billet contracts for delivery to lo-
3. Japan 4.9 3. United States 5.3 cations across Europe, Asia and North America.
4. United States 4.4 4. Japan 3.1 While there are many varieties of steel, Hot Rolled
Coil (HRC) is a commonly referenced price, but
EU (27) 7.8 EU (27) 8.3 regional complexities prevent the emergence of
Source: World Steel Association a clear benchmark at present.
16 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 IRON ORE
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Consensus Price for North China Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, cfr
Q4 2024: US$100.78 e
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
Q3 from Q4 2024
Investec 115.00 118.00 118.00 116.00 15.1% 116.00 114.00 114.00 na
Commerzbank 90.00 100.00 100.00 110.00 9.2% 110.00 na na na
S&P Global Mkt Intel 103.60 112.68 108.29 105.63 4.8% 105.30 113.79 108.92 105.03
Pezco Economics 101.34 103.06 104.15 105.16 4.4% 106.40 107.45 108.44 109.35
ANZ 93.00 95.00 101.00 105.00 4.2% 102.00 94.00 90.00 na
Deutsche Bank 100.00 110.00 105.00 100.00 -0.8% 105.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Morgan Stanley 125.00 115.00 100.00 100.00 -0.8% 105.00 110.00 95.00 na
UBS 100.00 105.00 100.00 100.00 -0.8% 95.00 95.00 95.00 95.00
Oxford Economics 99.18 97.92 95.73 95.11 -5.6% 94.84 94.11 93.86 92.93
Commonwealth Bank 105.00 100.00 95.00 95.00 -5.7% 95.00 90.00 90.00 85.00
RBC Capital Markets 100.00 100.00 95.00 95.00 -5.7% 90.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
ICIS 98.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 -6.7% 94.00 94.00 91.00 90.00
Australia Dept of Industry 98.84 97.00 95.23 93.60 -7.1% 91.90 89.41 87.88 na
BMO 110.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 -10.7% 90.00 100.00 100.00 90.00
Capital Economics 95.00 94.00 92.00 90.00 -10.7% 87.00 83.00 79.00 75.00
Citigroup 90.00 95.00 100.00 90.00 -10.7% 95.00 na na na
Macquarie 100.00 95.00 90.00 90.00 -10.7% 90.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Panmure Liberum 90.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 -15.7% 85.00 75.00 70.00 70.00
Consensus (Mean) 100.78 101.70 98.91 97.75 -3.0% 97.64 94.99 92.69 89.36
High 125.00 118.00 118.00 116.00 116.00 114.00 114.00 109.35
Low 90.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 75.00 70.00 70.00
Standard Deviation 8.94 8.56 7.32 8.13 8.66 12.10 11.97 11.98

Consensus Price for

Australian Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Q4 2024: US$ 93.35 e Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from Q4 2024
Consensus (Mean)1 93.35 92.84 90.56 89.90 -3.7% 88.84 84.59 83.71 79.72
High 105.50 108.70 108.70 106.70 106.70 105.38 105.94 106.51
Low 80.00 75.50 75.50 75.70 75.70 66.20 61.10 61.10
Standard Deviation 8.29 10.51 11.30 10.96 11.28 15.48 16.78 17.33

Q4 2024: US$103.68e Australian Lump Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Consensus (Mean) 1 103.68 106.34 103.84 103.30 -0.4% 102.05 97.28 95.76 85.83
High 123.90 129.94 129.94 127.58 127.58 125.52 125.52 97.40
Low 85.95 92.50 90.00 90.00 90.00 81.20 75.10 75.10
Standard Deviation 15.57 17.12 18.28 17.12 17.34 20.06 21.84 11.17
1
Brazil fines and Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet service.
Consensus Forecast Prices
US$/T As of survey date
Until April 2014, Iron ore was traded in world markets under contracts, with
110
prices set by negotiation between iron ore producers and steel manufacturers. Aust. Lump, fob
Three suppliers, Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton account for most ocean trade
in iron ore, of which China remains by far the largest consumer. Fines are the 100
most heavily traded category, while lump has generally traded at a premium China Fines, cfr
price. The annual benchmark price system has been dropped in favour of 90
quarterly prices based on prior average daily spot prices.

US$ Fines and Lump Iron Ore Prices 80

220
US$ per dry metric tonne Aust. Fines, fob
Australia Lump 70
200 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
180 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
North China Fines
160
Baltic Capesize Index of Shipping Rates
140 11000
120 9000
100 7000
80 5000
60 3000
Brazil Fines Australian Fines
40 1000
20 -1000
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 17
 ADDITIONAL METALS OCTOBER2024
SEPTEMBER 2007
Forecasts for the metals shown on this and the next page are nominal, quarterly averages and were provided to us by the
following leading commodity price forecasters:

ANZ Australia Dept of Industry Bank of America Securities

BMO BNP Paribas Capital Economics

Economist Intelligence Unit Investec ICIS

Macquarie Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics

Panmure Liberum Pezco Economics Prometeia

S&P Global Mkt Intel Standard Chartered UBS

Individual panellist forecasts for the minerals below and others are in the Excel spreadsheet.

SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER2024
2007
US$/T
50000
TIN (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Tin has its physical spot market
centred in Kuala Lumpur with the
Forecast Range
US$/metric Consensus % change 40000 LME recognised as the principal
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low Tin, Spot Price, hedging market.
Spot price 31895 LME, fob
-5.3% 33000 26000 30000 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Dec 2024 30192
-6.4% 35000 24000 US$/tonne Contract Size: 5
Mar 2025 29857
-7.0% 35500 22000 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Options:
Jun 2025 29647 20000
Sep 2025 29177 -8.5% 34000 21000 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Dec 2025 29340 -8.0% 35500 21000 Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Mar 2026 28758 -9.8% 34000 21000 10000 month contracts; then every third
Jun 2026 28600 -10.3% 34000 21000 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Wednesday for 7 months out to 15
Sep 2026 28492 -10.7% 35000 20773 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 months.

COBALT (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/lb Cobalt, Cobalt, principally used as a su-
50 Spot Price, per alloying agent because of its
Forecast Range
Consensus % change fob anti-corrosive properties, is a by-
US$/lb (Mean) from spot High Low 40 product of nickel. High demand
Spot price 14.80 has come from electric car mak-
Dec 2024 13.60 -8.1% 18.00 11.00 30 ers. The LME launched futures
Mar 2025 13.71 -7.4% 19.00 11.05 contracts in cobalt in 2010.
Jun 2025 13.98 -5.5% 20.00 10.80 20
-5.9% 20.00 10.60 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Sep 2025 13.93
-2.6% 20.00 10.65 10
US$/tonne Contract Size: 1 tonne
Dec 2025 14.42
Delivery Options: 1 tonne lots in
Mar 2026 15.37 3.8% 21.00 12.00
0
100-500kg drums of uniform size
Jun 2026 15.76 6.5% 21.00 12.00
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan and weight.
Sep 2026 15.86 7.1% 21.00 12.00
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Tin - Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices Cobalt - Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$/metric tonne US$/lb
18
LME Futures
32000 16
Consensus
14

30000 12
LME Futures
Consensus
10

28000 8
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

18 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024

 SEPTEMBER 2024 ADDITIONAL METALS
US$/kg Lithium Carbonate
LITHIUM – CARBONATE 100
Lithium Carbonate (battery
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Battery Grade grade) has the highest electric out-
(min 99.5%, Li2CO3
Consensus % change Forecast Range put per unit weight of any battery
80 Battery Grade, cif,
US$/kg (Mean) from spot High Low China, Japan and South
material.
Spot price 10.22 Korea) Lithium-based batteries are used
60
Dec 2024 13.48 32.0% 18.00 10.00 in applications such as electric ve-
Mar 2025 15.01 46.9% 25.00 10.00 hicles. The largest producers are
40
Jun 2025 14.94 46.2% 22.00 10.70 Australia, Chile and Argentina.
Sep 2025 15.16 48.4% 23.00 10.80
Dec 2025 15.76 54.3% 24.00 10.80 20 LITHIUM HYDROXIDE
(min 56.5%, LiOH.H2O Battery
Mar 2026 16.13 57.8% 24.00 11.00
Grade, cif, China, Japan and S. Ko-
Jun 2026 16.18 58.3% 24.00 11.20 0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan rea) forecasts can be found in the
Sep 2026 16.67 63.1% 24.00 11.50 Excel spreadsheet.
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

LITHIUM – SPODUMENE US$/T A slowdown in brine operations in

6000
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) South America has meant that the
Forecast Range
US$/metric Consensus % change 5000 bulk of new lithium capacity is
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low derived from hard rock mines.
Spot price 750 4000
Lithium, Spodumene (Ore, min 5-6%, Li20,
Dec 2024 1109 47.9% 1384 875 Spodumene
50.3% 1583 875
3000 cif, China), a pyroxene mineral
Mar 2025 1127
consisting of lithium aluminium
Jun 2025 1146 52.8% 1500 850 2000 inosilicate, provides the largest
Sep 2025 1163 55.0% 1500 875 proportion of all mineral-derived
Dec 2025 1221 62.8% 1750 875 1000 lithium.
Mar 2026 1149 53.2% 1570 875 Futures: Futures contract for
0
Jun 2026 1154 53.9% 1570 900 Jan Jan Jan J an Jan Lithium Hydroxide CIF launched
Sep 2026 1198 59.8% 1570 925 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 by the LME on July 19, 2021.

MANGANESE (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/dmtu Manganese is not exchange-

Manganese, Spot Price
Forecast Range 12.0 traded so prices are established
(1/100 of a tonne) of
US$/metric Consensus % change by negotiation between buyers
44% Manganese Ore
tonne unit (Mean) from spot High Low 10.0
and sellers. Negotiations occur in
Spot price 6.235 8.0 line with the beginning of the
Dec 2024 9.133 46.5% 15.000 5.000 Japanese fiscal year in April. Fol-
Mar 2025 8.417 35.0% 15.000 4.500 6.0 lowing the setting of prices with
Jun 2025 6.217 -0.3% 8.000 4.300 Japanese manufacturing compa-
4.0
Sep 2025 5.467 -12.3% 6.500 4.300 nies, similar settlement prices are
Dec 2025 5.163 -17.2% 6.500 4.180 2.0 set worldwide.
Mar 2026 5.180 -16.9% 6.250 4.200 The price is based upon a bench-
Jun 2026 5.180 -16.9% 6.250 4.200 0.0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan mark ore of 44% manganese con-
Sep 2026 4.900 -21.4% 5.500 4.200 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 tent, Cif, Tianjin, China.

MOLYBDENUM (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Molybdenum is principally used as

50 US$/lb an alloying agent in steel. As a by-
Forecast Range Molybdenum,
Consensus % change product of copper, production costs
Spot Price, fob
US$/lb (Mean) from spot High Low 40 are low. Prices can be influenced
Spot price 21.53 by demand for nickel and stainless
Dec 2024 20.83 -3.2% 22.00 19.87 30 steel, as well as molybdenum
Mar 2025 20.00 -7.1% 22.00 18.00 roasting capacity.
-8.8% 22.00 15.00 20
Jun 2025 19.64 Futures Market: LME (since Feb-
Sep 2025 18.83 -12.5% 21.97 13.00 ruary 2010) Pricing: US$/tonne
10
Dec 2025 18.50 -14.1% 21.97 12.00 Contract Size: 6 tonnes Mo (+/-5%
Mar 2026 17.54 -18.5% 20.00 11.00 (Mo content 57-63%) Delivery Op-
0
Jun 2026 17.50 -18.7% 20.00 11.00 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan tions: 10 tonnes (RMC), deliverable
Sep 2026 17.34 -19.5% 20.00 11.00 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 in 200 or 250kg drums.

Ilmenite, Rutile and Zircon Forecasts, US$/Metric Tonne available in the Excel spreadsheet service.

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 19

GOLD SEPTEMBER 2024
Survey Date Spot Price Gold Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce Nominal, Quarterly Averages
D e c '2 4 M a r '2 5 Jun '2 5 Se p '2 5 % cha nge D e c '2 5 M ar '2 6 J un '2 6 Se p '2 6
(Sep. 16): US$ 2584 from spot
Citigro u p 2550 2700 2800 3000 16.1% 3000 na na na
So ciete G en erale 2700 2725 2750 2850 10.3% 2900 na na na
ANZ 2650 2730 2780 2830 9.5% 2880 2870 2820 na
JP Mo rg an 2650 2700 2750 2800 8.4% 2850 na na na
Bo A Secu rities 2750 2750 3000 2750 6.4% 2500 na na na
G o ld m an Sach s 2560 2643 2700 2700 4.5% 2700 na na na
ING Ban k 2580 2650 2750 2700 4.5% 2700 2680 2680 2680
UBS 2580 2650 2700 2700 4.5% 2750 2800 2800 2800
Stan d ard Ch artered 2500 2575 2625 2650 2.6% 2700 2600 2500 na
Co m m erz ban k 2500 2550 2600 2600 0.6% 2550 na na na
Deu tsch e Ban k 2400 2450 2450 2600 0.6% 2600 2302 2302 2302
ISG R 2550 2600 2600 2600 0.6% 2600 2600 2590 2590
Mo o d y's An alytics 2455 2515 2543 2587 0.1% 2615 2638 2663 2680
Ban k Ju liu s Baer 2500 2525 2550 2575 -0.3% 2600 na na na
Pez co Eco n o m ics 2585 2611 2589 2565 -0.7% 2548 2536 2529 2520
Cap ital Eco no m ics 2295 2270 2410 2550 -1.3% 2685 2760 2775 2790
O CBC 2465 2495 2515 2535 -1.9% 2550 2560 2561 2565
Eco n In tellig en ce Unit 2490 2500 2515 2530 -2.1% 2540 2530 2520 2500
ICIS 2508 2528 2532 2525 -2.3% 2527 2616 2626 2790
O xfo rd Eco no m ics 2454 2476 2494 2503 -3.1% 2507 2518 2531 2543
In vestec 2425 2475 2475 2500 -3.3% 2500 2550 2550 na
Mo rg an Stanley 2600 2650 2500 2500 -3.3% 2500 2200 2200 na
E2 Eco n om ia 2533 2526 2523 2481 -4.0% 2447 2407 2373 2359
BNP Parib as 2545 2595 2515 2475 -4.2% 2410 na na na
Ban co d e Cred ito d el Peru 2300 2400 2400 2400 -7.1% 2400 2400 2400 2400
Macq u arie 2500 2600 2500 2400 -7.1% 2350 2250 2250 2250
RBC Cap ital Markets 2530 2640 2480 2342 -9.4% 2640 2660 2690 2655
T D Secu rities 2350 2350 2325 2275 -12.0% 2175 na na na
Au stralia Dep t o f In du stry 2240 2225 2220 2200 -14.9% 2180 2125 2075 2025
BMO 2350 2300 2200 2200 -14.9% 2100 2100 2100 2100
S&P G lo b al Mkt In tel 2413 2316 2210 2107 -18.5% 2053 1990 1928 1880
Pan m u re L iberum 2300 2200 2100 2000 -22.6% 1900 1850 1800 1750
Co n sen su s (Mean ) 2494 2529 2534 2532 -2.0% 2530 2458 2446 2430
Hig h 2750 2750 3000 3000 3000 2870 2820 2800
Low 2240 2200 2100 2000 1900 1850 1800 1750
Stan d ard Deviatio n 121 151 194 218 248 267 278 310

US$/troy ounce Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

2800
2600 Gold, Spot Price (PM Fixing), US$/troy oz As of survey date
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)
2400 2700

2200 COMEX Futures

2600
2000
1800 2500
1600 Consensus
2400
1400
1200
2300
1000 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Gold Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (COMEX) Gold Hits Fresh All-Time High
US$ Index ² Gold hit an all time high of US$2584/troy oz
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
2,600 100
Gold Futures, 3 Month on our survey date, following a string of fresh
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) highs this year. The metal’s latest rally has
2,500
102 been driven by soft US labour market data,
2,400 bolstering expectations of an imminent Fed-
fund rate cut of 25 or 50bps, while increased
2,300 104 safe-haven demand has also helped. Support
US$ Index for the metal should continue amid a sustained
2,200
(rhs, inverted scale) downward trend in global interest rates.
106
² China, the largest single buyer of gold, ex-
2,100
tended its purchasing pause for a 4th month
2,000 108 in August. Prior to this, it had bought gold for
M ar 2024 Apr 2024 M ay 2024 J un 2024 J ul 2024 Aug 2024 Sep 2024 18 straight months to diversify its reserves.
World Gold Supply and Demand 1
Total Gold Supply May 2024 Gold prices are fixed twice daily by the LBMA provid-
(in tonnes) 2
Total Gold Demand Consensus Forecasts ing a benchmark price for trades on various ex-
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 changes and over-the-counter trades.
Supply 1 4736 4707 4760 4930 4935 4947 US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3 cal-
Demand 2 3677 4003 4699 4468 4644 4739
endar months; any February, April, August and October
Balance 1059 705 60 463 290 208 within 23 months; and any June and December within
Historical Estimates Source: World Gold Council 72 months. Contracts Traded: 56,460,012 (2023).
20 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 SILVER
Survey Date Spot Price Silver Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US$ 30.91
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
UBS 36.30 37.00 38.00 38.00 22.9% 39.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
Citigroup 35.00 35.00 36.00 37.00 19.7% 40.00 na na na
JP Morgan 34.00 35.10 35.70 36.40 17.8% 37.00 na na na
ANZ 32.66 34.13 35.29 36.28 17.4% 36.92 36.79 36.15 na
Morgan Stanley 30.95 33.13 33.33 33.33 7.8% 33.33 31.43 31.43 na
Bank Julius Baer 31.50 32.00 32.50 33.00 6.8% 33.50 na na na
BoA Securities 31.00 34.00 37.50 33.00 6.8% 37.00 na na na
Commerzbank 30.00 31.00 32.00 33.00 6.8% 33.00 na na na
Investec 30.70 31.33 31.33 32.05 3.7% 32.05 32.69 32.69 na
Pezco Economics 29.57 30.25 30.68 31.09 0.6% 31.56 31.44 31.02 30.59
Macquarie 30.50 33.00 32.00 31.00 0.3% 30.00 29.00 29.00 27.00
ICIS 30.87 31.13 31.02 30.83 -0.3% 31.03 31.41 31.66 32.73
BNP Paribas 30.30 31.05 30.85 30.70 -0.7% 30.85 na na na
Oxford Economics 29.54 29.79 29.98 30.11 -2.6% 30.25 30.35 30.44 30.54
Deutsche Bank 28.00 29.00 29.00 30.00 -2.9% 30.00 26.20 26.20 26.20
OCBC 28.33 28.68 29.24 29.82 -3.5% 30.72 30.84 30.86 30.90
ING Bank 29.00 29.50 30.00 29.50 -4.6% 29.50 28.50 28.50 28.50
Standard Chartered 30.00 31.00 30.00 29.00 -6.2% 28.00 30.00 32.00 na
TD Securities 31.00 31.00 30.00 29.00 -6.2% 28.00 na na na
RBC Capital Markets 31.00 33.00 30.50 28.30 -8.5% 33.00 34.00 35.00 34.25
Capital Economics 28.00 27.00 27.50 27.50 -11.0% 27.50 27.50 27.50 27.50
BMO 28.50 27.00 26.00 26.00 -15.9% 26.00 26.00 25.00 25.00
Panmure Liberum 28.00 26.50 25.00 24.00 -22.4% 23.00 22.50 22.00 21.50
S&P Global Mkt Intel 27.31 25.93 24.96 23.94 -22.6% 23.19 22.51 21.78 21.08
Consensus (Mean) 30.50 31.10 31.18 30.95 0.1% 31.43 30.07 30.07 28.91
High 36.30 37.00 38.00 38.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
Low 27.31 25.93 24.96 23.94 23.00 22.50 21.78 21.08
Standard Deviation 2.24 2.89 3.53 3.72 4.44 4.53 4.75 5.17

US$/troy Silver, Spot Price (Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

Ratio
ounce London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) 34.0
US$/troy oz COMEX Futures
40.0 125 As of survey date
Gold/Silver Spot 32.0
Price Ratio (rhs)
100
30.0
30.0
75
Consensus
20.0
50 28.0

Silver Spot Price (lhs)

10.0 25 26.0
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Silver Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (COMEX) Support From Strong Industrial Demand
US$ US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close ² On our survey date silver exceeded the US$30/
34.0 troy oz level, boosted by expectations of a US
rate cut and similar rises in Gold. Silver’s grow-
32.0 ing use in industrial applications is adding to
the metal’s bullish momentum, especially amid
30.0
tight supply. Rising demand from tech indus-
28.0 tries (car electronics, 5G communications and
AI), along with China’s shift to renewable en-
26.0 ergy is driving the robust industrial demand.
² Tight supply and solid demand have contrib-
24.0
uted to a supply deficit every year since 2021,
22.0 and this trend is likely to continue in 2024 and
M ar 20 24 Ap r 202 4 M ay 2024 J un 2 024 J u l 202 4 Aug 2024 Se p 20 24 2025, which should lend support to the metal.
World Silver Supply and Demand 1 Total Silver Supply May 2024 Silver, like gold, has a price set by members of the
(in millions of ounces) 2
Total Physical Silver Demand Consensus Forecasts LBMA which is used as a benchmark for over-the-
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 counter trades.
Supply
1
957 1004 1015 1011 1005 992 US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
2 Contract Size: 5,000 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3
Demand 927 1100 1279 1195 1306 1294
calendar months; any January, March, May and Sep-
Balance 31 -95 -264 -184 -301 -301 tember within 23 months; and any July and December
Historical Estimates Source: World Silver Survey, The Silver Institute within 60 months. Contracts Traded: 18,129,593(2023).
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 21
 PLATINUM SEPTEMBER 2024
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Platinum Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Sep. 16): US$ 989.0
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Commerzbank 1100 1150 1200 1250 26.4% 1250 na na na
Macquarie 1075 1150 1200 1250 26.4% 1200 1175 1175 1150
Oxford Economics 1129 1169 1197 1212 22.5% 1223 1230 1237 1244
Investec 1043 1139 1139 1200 21.3% 1200 1262 1262 na
JP Morgan 1050 1100 1150 1200 21.3% 1190 na na na
UBS 1085 1150 1150 1200 21.3% 1200 1235 1235 1235
ANZ 1030 1080 1130 1180 19.3% 1230 1220 1200 na
Deutsche Bank 1100 1150 1150 1150 16.3% 1150 1256 1256 1256
Morgan Stanley 1050 1075 1100 1150 16.3% 1200 1250 1300 na
Panmure Liberum 1150 1150 1150 1150 16.3% 1150 1175 1175 1190
RBC Capital Markets 1100 1150 1150 1150 16.3% 1150 1200 1200 1200
Standard Chartered 1065 1100 1120 1150 16.3% 1190 1210 1220 na
BNP Paribas 1070 1095 1100 1120 13.2% 1165 na na na
BMO 1000 1050 1050 1100 11.2% 1100 1150 1150 1150
S&P Global Mkt Intel 991 1036 1066 1079 9.1% 1093 1132 1151 1164
Citigroup 1000 1025 1050 1075 8.7% 1075 na na na
ICIS 1017 1037 1047 1063 7.5% 1073 1097 1129 1112
BoA Securities 1100 1000 1000 1000 1.1% 1000 na na na
Capital Economics 995 985 950 915 -7.5% 875 840 815 790
Consensus (Mean) 1061 1094 1110 1137 14.9% 1143 1174 1179 1149
High 1150 1169 1200 1250 1250 1262 1300 1256
Low 991 985 950 915 875 840 815 790
Standard Deviation 47 58 68 84 91 108 115 134

Platinum, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) As of survey date
US$/troy ounce Ratio 1300
US$/troy oz
2500 1.4 Consensus
Platinum/Gold Spot 1200
Price Ratio (rhs) 1.2
2000
1.0 1100

1500 0.8 1000

0.6 NYMEX Futures
1000 900
0.4
Platinum Spot Price (lhs)
500 0.2 800
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
Platinum Nears US$1000/troy oz
Platinum Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (NYMEX)
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
² Prices for platinum were just shy of touching
US$ US$1000/troy oz this month, as precious
1,200 metal prices rallied across the board. The
looming shift to lower global interest rates –
1,100 after the US Fed kicked off its easing cycle
on September 18 – is bolstering the appeal of
precious metals as alternative investments.
1,000 ² However, platinum faces a number of chal-
lenges, including a likely reduction in demand
due to the rise in electric vehicles. On the
900
supply side, production of the metal in South
Africa – the world biggest supplier of plati-
800 num – has been waning. Lack of investment
M ar 2024 Apr 2024 M ay 2024 J un 2024 J ul 2024 Aug 2024 Sep 2024 in new mines and infrastructure has contrib-
uted to production problems in the country.
World Platinum Supply and Demand 1
Total Platinum Supply
Platinum prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM
2
(in thousands of ounces) Total Platinum Demand
to provide a benchmark price in a practice similar to
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 that used for gold and silver.
1
Supply 6900 8309 7327 7172 US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/troy
Demand
2
7763 6936 6372 8023 ounce Lot Size: 50 troy ounces Deliverability: Over
15 months including the next 3 calendar months;
Balance -863 1373 955 -851 then a January, April, June and October cycle.
Historical Estimates Source: World Platinum Investment Council Contracts Traded: 6,178,332 (2023).
22 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 PALLADIUM
Nominal, Quarterly Averages

Survey Date Spot Price Palladium Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Sep. 16): US$1068 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Commerzbank 1050 1100 1150 1200 12.4% 1200 na na na
Panmure Liberum 1500 1200 1200 1200 12.4% 1200 1200 1200 1200
Macquarie 1125 1200 1175 1150 7.7% 1100 1050 1000 1000
Investec 1012 1105 1105 1132 6.0% 1132 1191 1191 na
RBC Capital Markets 1000 1100 1100 1100 3.0% 1100 1000 1000 1000
UBS 1079 1125 1115 1100 3.0% 1100 1100 1100 1050
S&P Global Mkt Intel 983 1034 1070 1091 2.1% 1106 1119 1131 1142
ANZ 1030 1020 1030 1080 1.1% 1100 1100 1100 na
Capital Economics 1100 1095 1085 1075 0.7% 1060 1045 1035 1025
ICIS 1009 1011 1015 1017 -4.8% 1028 1042 1044 1058
BMO 1000 1000 1000 1000 -6.4% 1000 1000 1000 1000
BNP Paribas 985 995 1005 1000 -6.4% 985 na na na
JP Morgan 1100 1100 1100 1000 -6.4% 1000 na na na
Morgan Stanley 975 1000 1000 1000 -6.4% 975 950 900 na
Oxford Economics 966 960 953 946 -11.5% 936 927 918 909
Citigroup 975 950 925 900 -15.7% 875 na na na
Standard Chartered 980 950 900 875 -18.1% 850 800 750 na
Deutsche Bank 900 850 850 850 -20.4% 850 1151 1151 1151
BoA Securities 800 700 700 700 -34.5% 700 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 1030 1026 1025 1022 -4.3% 1016 1048 1037 1054
High 1500 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200
Low 800 700 700 700 700 800 750 909
Standard Deviation 136 119 122 127 130 109 124 88

Palladium, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) As of survey date
US$/troy ounce Ratio 1300
3000 3.0 US$/troy oz NYMEX Futures
Palladium Spot 1200
2500 2.5
Price (lhs)
2000 2.0 1100

1500 1.5
1000
Platinum/Palladium
1000 1.0 Consensus
Spot Price Ratio (rhs)
900
500 0.5

0 0.0 800
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Russian Commodities Curbs Lift Prices

Palladium Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (NYMEX)
US$ US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close ² Like its sister metals in the precious space, pal-
ladium has enjoyed a strong run since our Au-
1,200
gust survey. Unique to palladium, though, are
threats by Russia – the world’s largest palla-
1,100 dium producer – to limit exports of uranium, ti-
tanium and nickel in retaliation for Western sanc-
tions. This will impact palladium as it is a by-
1,000
product of nickel mining.Speculation that its
price could subsequently surge spurred a sharp
900 rise in holdings by Exchange Traded Funds.
² Palladium is used by the automative industry in
catalytic converters to curb emssions. Yet, lower
800 vehicle production and the rise in platinum for
Mar 2024 Apr 2024 May 2024 J un 2024 J ul 2024 Aug 2024 Sep 2024
palladium substitution could limit the potential
for palladium to rebound to previous heights.
World Palladium Supply and Demand 1
Total Palladium Supply
2
Total Palladium Demand Palladium prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM to
(in thousands of ounces)
provide a benchmark price in a practice used for other
World 2020 2021 2022 2023 precious metals. Most palladium is used in catalytic
1
Supply 9323 10184 9219 9354 converters. US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/
2
Demand 10005 10268 9975 10371 troy ounce Lot Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability:
Over 15 months including the next 3 calendar months;
Balance -682 -84 -756 -1017 then a March, June, September and December cycle.
Historical Estimates Source: Johnson Matthey Platinum Group Metals Survey Contracts Traded: 918,175 (2023).
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 23
WHEAT AND CORN SEPTEMBER 2024

Survey Date Spot Price Wheat Forecasts, US¢/Bushel Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US¢ 579 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Prometeia 599 619 619 621 7.3% 623 626 627 630
ICIS 602 603 606 607 4.9% 613 616 620 637
TD Securities 620 600 600 600 3.7% 600 na na na
E2 Economia 578 587 593 598 3.3% 604 613 621 629
Commerzbank 550 570 580 580 0.3% 600 na na na
Pezco Economics 535 547 563 578 0.0% 595 596 589 582
BoA Securities 540 560 560 560 -3.2% 550 550 na na
ISGR 560 550 580 540 -6.7% 610 560 570 604
Citigroup 525 550 550 525 -9.2% 525 na na na
Capital Economics 535 520 515 510 -11.8% 505 500 500 500
Consensus (Mean) 564 571 577 572 -1.1% 582 580 588 597
High 620 619 619 621 623 626 627 637
Low 525 520 515 510 505 500 500 500
Standard Deviation 33 31 31 37 41 46 48 52

US¢/Bushel Wheat, Spot Price, CBOT Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

1500 700
US¢/Bushel
1300
CME Futures
1100 650

900
600
700
Consensus
500
550
300 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026
Survey Date Spot Price Corn Forecasts, US¢/Bushel Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US¢ 410 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Oxford Economics 416 432 440 447 8.9% 450 454 458 461
E2 Economia 423 439 443 445 8.4% 449 455 461 466
ICIS 416 427 431 433 5.5% 436 445 468 478
Pezco Economics 370 379 396 413 0.7% 431 429 419 408
Prometeia 376 392 402 412 0.4% 420 428 434 441
BoA Securities 390 390 400 400 -2.5% 390 380 na na
Capital Economics 405 400 395 390 -4.9% 380 375 375 375
Citigroup 390 390 385 375 -8.6% 375 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 398 406 412 414 1.0% 416 424 436 438
High 423 439 443 447 450 455 468 478
Low 370 379 385 375 375 375 375 375
Standard Deviation 20 23 23 26 31 33 35 39

US¢/Bushel Corn, Spot Price, CBOT Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

900 500
US¢/Bushel
800
CME Futures
700 450
600

500 Consensus
400
400

300
350
200
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024
2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Corn: CBOT No.2 at contract price.Corn’s main use is as an

animal feed. The USA is the largest producer accounting for ² Grains Make Ground as Supply Tightens
41% of gloabal production. Corn prices have recorded an upswing of +2.5% since our
US Futures Market: CBOT Pricing: US 1 bushel = .0254 August survey date, as global supply appears to have tight-
metric ton. 1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels. Contract Size: ened. EU Farmers are reporting a gloomier outlook as unfa-
5,000 bushels. 9 monthly contracts of Mar, May, Sep and 8 vourable growing conditions yield relatively poor harvests
monthly contracts of Jul and Dec listed annually. this season. Higher export demand for ethanol has also
Wheat: Soft Red Winter at contract price. Wheat is used pri- boosted demand for corn, further tightening the market.
marily in the food industry. The most important wheat prod- ² Wheat prices have also proven more upbeat over the same
uct is flour, but wheat also plays an important role in the
period, witnessing an increase of +4.8%, as this foodstuff
production of beer, whiskey and cooking oil.
is facing similar supply difficulties to corn. In addition, a
Futures Market: CBOT Pricing: US¢/Bushel - 1 metric ton =
36.7437 bushels. Contract Size: 5000 Bushels. 15 monthly
Russian attack on a grain shipment in the Black Sea has
contracts of Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec listed annually. raised concerns over this vital transport corridor once more.
24 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024
 SEPTEMBER 2024 SOYBEANS AND SUGAR

Survey Date Spot Price Soybeans Price Forecasts, US¢/Bushel Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
(Sep. 16): US¢ 1002 from spot
JP Morgan 1200 1200 1250 1250 24.7% 1250 na na na
Pezco Economics 1003 1034 1073 1111 10.8% 1150 1153 1138 1123
Econ Intelligence Unit 1116 1116 1143 1089 8.6% 1089 1116 1143 1089
Oxford Economics 1044 1055 1065 1079 7.7% 1093 1108 1122 1133
E2 Economia 1029 1048 1048 1074 7.2% 1104 1134 1158 1176
ICIS 1055 1064 1074 1064 6.2% 1069 1079 1116 1133
Prometeia 986 1014 1030 1045 4.3% 1059 1071 1082 1094
Capital Economics 1070 1070 1030 990 -1.2% 950 925 925 925
Citigroup 1000 1000 1000 975 -2.7% 975 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 1056 1067 1079 1075 7.3% 1082 1084 1098 1096
High 1200 1200 1250 1250 1250 1153 1158 1176
Low 986 1000 1000 975 950 925 925 925
Standard Deviation 67 60 75 79 89 76 80 81

US¢/Bushel Soybeans, Spot Price, CBOT Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

2000 1150
US¢/Bushel
1800
Consensus
1100
1600

1400
1050
1200 CME Futures
1000 1000

800
950
600 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Survey Date Spot Price Sugar Price Forecasts, US¢/lb Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Sep. 16): US¢ 19.18 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 % change Dec '25 Mar '26 Jun '26 Sep '26
from spot
Citigroup 20.00 21.00 21.00 20.50 6.9% 20.50 na na na
E2 Economia 19.32 19.06 18.74 18.56 -3.2% 18.51 18.52 18.53 18.54
Econ Intelligence Unit 19.32 19.28 18.83 18.38 -4.2% 18.19 18.81 18.73 18.26
ICIS 19.20 19.30 18.50 18.20 -5.1% 18.10 18.00 17.40 17.20
ISGR 20.50 20.00 19.00 18.00 -6.2% 17.00 17.00 16.00 17.00
Prometeia 17.12 16.87 16.66 16.59 -13.5% 16.53 16.43 16.29 16.24
Consensus (Mean) 19.24 19.25 18.79 18.37 -4.2% 18.14 17.75 17.39 17.45
High 20.50 21.00 21.00 20.50 20.50 18.81 18.73 18.54
Low 17.12 16.87 16.66 16.59 16.53 16.43 16.00 16.24
Standard Deviation 1.16 1.37 1.38 1.26 1.39 1.01 1.25 0.95

US¢/lb Sugar, Spot Price, ICE Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

30
20.0
US¢/lb
25

19.0
20 ICE Futures

15 18.0

10 Consensus
17.0
5 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 2026 2026

Soybeans: #2 Yellow at contract price. Mainly used in the Sugar Prices Stirred Up by Speculators
production of natural oils such as vegetable oil. ² The price of sugar has jumped since our last survey, to
US Futures Market: CBOT Pricing: US¢/Bu - 1 metric ton = US¢19.18/lb. Speculators have been driving up the price in
36.7437Bu Contract Size: 5000Bu 15 monthly contracts of a bid to capitalise on the growing damaged caused by
Jan, Mar, May, Aug, Sep and 8 monthly contracts of Jul and wildfires after recent dry weather in Brazil, which will nega-
Nov listed annually. tively impact crop yields. A similar supply shock in India
Sugar: No. 11 contract is the world benchmark contract last year contributed to the decade high prices seen in 2023.
for raw sugar trading. Produced primarily in Brazil, India ² Soybean prices have climbed owing to a surge in Chinese
and China, Sugar (sucrose) is a product of sugar beet soybean imports in August, which marked a record-high of
and sugar cane.
12.14MT. This represented a rise of 29.7% (y-o-y). The ro-
US Futures Market: ICE Pricing: US¢/lb Contract Size:
bust demand comes off the back of rising demand for live-
112,000 pounds Contract Series: March, May, July and
October. stock feed from farmers, and fears of fresh US tariffs.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 25
 ADDITIONAL AGRICULTURE SEPTEMBER 2024

Forecasts for the commodities shown on this page are nominal, quarterly averages and were provided to us by the following
leading commodity price forecasters:

Capital Economics Citigroup E2 Economia

Economist Intelligence Unit Goldman Sachs ICIS

ISGR JP Morgan Prometia

Individual panellist forecasts for the items below are in the Excel spreadsheet.

(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Cocoa, Spot Price, ICE

COCOA 13000
Forecast Range US$/T Cocoa: The Cocoa con-
Consensus % change
11000 tract is the world bench-
US$/T (Mean) from spot High Low
mark for the global cocoa
Spot price 7767 9000 market. Cocoa is the name
Dec 2024 7387 -4.9% 8600 6500 given to the seeds of the
Mar 2025 6818 -12.2% 8800 5976 7000 cocoa tree and the pow-
Jun 2025 6426 -17.3% 8600 5500 der produced from these.
5000 US Futures Market: ICE
Sep 2025 6051 -22.1% 8200 5000
Pricing: US$/T Contract
Dec 2025 5637 -27.4% 8100 4500 3000 Size: 10 Metric Tonnes
Mar 2026 5604 -27.8% 8000 4150 Contract Series: March,
Jun 2026 5461 -29.7% 7800 4200 1000 May, July, September, De-
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan cember
Sep 2026 5336 -31.3% 7500 4100
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Cotton, Spot Price, ICE

COTTON (Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
180 Cotton: ICE Cotton No.2.
Forecast Range US¢/lb Contract calls for physical
Consensus % change 160 delivery of cotton of certain
US¢/lb (Mean) from spot High Low minimum standards of ba-
Spot price 72.82 140
sis grade and staple
Dec 2024 73.19 0.5% 86.00 62.13 length. the world’s most
120
Mar 2025 75.86 4.2% 88.00 65.84 important textile raw ma-
6.9% 89.00 68.71 100 terial.
Jun 2025 77.85
US Futures Market: ICE
Sep 2025 79.18 8.7% 90.00 71.35 80
Pricing: USc/lb Contract
Dec 2025 81.41 11.8% 95.00 73.61
60 Size: 50,000 pounds net
Mar 2026 77.60 6.6% 82.76 75.00 weight Contract Series:
Jun 2026 78.70 8.1% 84.29 75.82 40 March, May, July, October,
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan December.
Sep 2026 78.77 8.2% 85.61 74.00
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Palm Oil, Spot Price, Bursa

(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Palm Oil: Crude Palm Oil
PALM OIL 8500
MYR/T has several applications
Consensus % change Forecast Range 7500 including cooking, lubri-
MYR/T (Mean) from spot High Low cants, candle-making,
6500 cosmetics,
Spot price 3930
Futures Market: Bursa
Dec 2024 4201 6.9% 4452 4052 5500
Malaysia Derivatives Pric-
Mar 2025 4294 9.3% 4499 4083 ing: MYR/T Contract Size:
4500
Jun 2025 4335 10.3% 4537 4067 25 Metric Tonnes Con-
Sep 2025 4257 8.3% 4563 4008 3500 tract Series: Spot month
Dec 2025 4308 9.6% 4550 3975 and the next 11 succeed-
2500
5.0% 4524 3729 ing months, and thereafter,
Mar 2026 4127
1500 alternate months up to 36
Jun 2026 4111 -2.1% 4490 3732
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan months ahead
Sep 2026 4106 -4.4% 4478 3734 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

26 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024

 SEPTEMBER 2024

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© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024 27

 SEPTEMBER 2024
Consensus Forecasts Percentage Changes From Spot Price
During the Next Eight Quarters

% Change

15.0

10.0

Crude Oil, Brent

5.0

Wheat

0.0
EU Steel Aluminium

-5.0

Gold

-10.0

Tin

-15.0
Spot Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 Sep-26

CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC.

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28 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2024