MATH 270 Chapter 8: Sampling Distributions Fall 2024

Sampling Distributions

Definitions: The entire group of individuals or objects to be studied is called the

population. An individual is a person or object that is a member of the population
being studied. A sample is a subset of the population that is being studied.

Two types of statistical methods are used in analyzing data:

i. Descriptive statistics consists of organizing and summarizing data.

Descriptive statistics describe data through numerical summaries, tables, and graphs.
ii. Inferential statistics uses methods that generalize results obtained
from a sample to the population and measure their reliability.
• A parameter is a numerical summary of a population.
• A statistic is a numerical summary based on a sample.
Example:
• Suppose the percentage of ALL students on your campus who have a job is
84.9%. This value represents a parameter because it is a numerical summary of a
population.
• Suppose a sample of 250 students is obtained, and from this sample we find that 86.4% have a job. This
value represents a statistic because it is a numerical summary based on a sample.
Definition: If x1 , x2 ,..., xn are n observations of a variable from a sample, then the sample mean, x , and the
sample standard deviation, s, are given by
Mean Variance Standard Deviation Proportion
Population Parameter  2  p

Sample Statistic x s2 s p̂

• If the information (data) collected is from the entire population, we can use descriptive statistics to draw
conclusions about the population being studied and the statistical process is over.
• However, it is often difficult or impossible to gain access to populations. The sample data are used to make
inferences about the population. For example, we might compute a sample mean x from the data and use
this information to draw conclusions regarding the population mean .
• In this chapter, we continue our discussion of probability distributions where statistics, such as x , will be
the random variable. Statistics are random variables because the value of a statistic varies from sample to
sample. For this reason, statistics have probability distributions associated with them. For example, there
is a probability distribution for the sample mean x , sample proportion p̂ , and so on. We use probability
distributions to make probability statements regarding the statistic.
• Our goal in this chapter is to describe the distribution of a statistic such as x and p̂ . Remember, when we
describe a distribution, we do so in terms of its shape, center (mean), and spread (standard deviation).

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(1) Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean, x

Let’s look at the following example:

Suppose the government wanted to determine the mean income of all U.S. households. One approach the
government could take is to survey every U.S. household to determine the population mean, . This would be a
very expensive and time-consuming survey! A second approach the government could (and does) take is to
survey a random sample of U.S. households and use the results to estimate the mean household income.
The Current Population Survey is administered to approximately 250,000 randomly selected households each
month. Among the many questions on the survey, respondents are asked to report the income of each individual
in the household. From this information, the federal government obtains a sample mean household income for
U.S. households. For example, in 2013 the mean annual household income in the United States was estimated to
be x = $72,641. The government might infer from this survey that the mean annual household income of all
U.S. households in 2013 was  = $72,641.
The households in the Current Population Survey were determined by chance (random sampling). A second
random sample of households would likely lead to a different sample mean, such as x = $71,849, and a third
random sample of households would likely lead to a third sample mean, such as x = $72,978.
Because the households selected will vary from sample to sample, the sample mean x of household income
will also vary from sample to sample. For this reason, the sample mean x is a random variable, so it has a
probability distribution. Our goal in this section is to describe the distribution of the sample mean. Remember,
when we describe a distribution, we do so in terms of its shape, center, and spread.
What is a sampling distribution?
The sampling distribution of a statistic is a probability distribution for all possible values of the statistic
computed from a sample of size n.
The sampling distribution of the sample mean x is the probability distribution of all possible values of the
random variable x computed from a sample of size n from a population with mean  and standard deviation
.
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean: Normal Population vs. Nonnormal Population
• The probability distribution of the sample mean is determined from statistical theory. We will use
simulation to help justify the result that statistical theory provides.
The following applet helps use to ‘see’ Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean:
https://www.statcrunch.com/applets/type3&samplingdist
We can draw the following conclusions:
• Center: The mean of the distribution of the sample mean equals the mean of the population.
• Spread: The standard deviation of the sample mean is less than the standard deviation of the population.
What role do you think n, the sample size, plays in the standard deviation of the distribution of the sample
mean?
As the sample size n increases, the standard deviation of the distribution of x decreases.

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The Mean and Standard Deviation of the Sampling Distribution of x

Suppose that a simple random sample of size n is drawn from a population with mean  and standard deviation
 . The sampling distribution of x has mean  x =  and standard deviation  x =  . The standard deviation
n
of the sampling distribution of x ,  x , is called the standard error of the mean.

Summary
Suppose a random sample of size n is drown from a population with mean 𝜇 and standard deviation 𝜎. Then, we
can describe the distribution of the sample mean based on the following two situations:
(a) If the population distribution is Normal:
x will be normal for any sample size n with mean  x =  and standard deviation  x =  .
n
(b) If the population distribution is Nonnormal:
(i) When the sample size n is sufficiently large (n  30):
x will be approximately normal with mean  x =  and standard deviation  x =  .
n
(ii) When the sample size n is small (n  30):
Although it is still true that  x =  and  x =  , unfortunately there is no general result about the shape
n
of the distribution of x (usually x has similar distribution shape as the population).

Example1. A simple random sample of size n = 36 is obtained from a population with  = 89 and  = 18.

(a) Describe the sampling distribution of x .

Answer:

(b) What is P( x  94.4)?

Answer:

(c) What is P( x  82.25)?

Answer:

(d) What is P(84.65  x  95.45)?

Answer:

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Example 2. Answer the following questions for the sampling distribution of the sample mean shown to the
right.
(a) What is the value of  x ? Answer:

(b) What is the value of  x ?

Answer:

(c) If the sample size is n = 16, what is likely true about the shape of the population?
Answer: Look at the graph to the right. The shape of x is normal even the sample size is small (n = 16  30).
Therefore, the population that we were sampling from must be normal.
(d) If the sample size is n = 16, what is the standard deviation of the population from which the sample was
drawn?
Answer:

Example 3. The upper leg of 20 to 29 year old males is normally distributed with a mean length of 43.7cm and
a standard deviation of 4.2cm.
 = 43.7 and  = 4.2

(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected 20- to 29-year old male has an upper leg length that is less
than 40 cm?

Answer:

(b) A random sample of 9 males who are 20 to 29 years old is obtained. What is the probability that the mean
upper leg length is less than 40 cm?

Answer:

(c) What is the probability that a random sample of 12 males who are 20–29 years old results in a mean upper
leg length that is less than 40 cm?

Answer:

(d) What effect does increasing the sample size have on the probability? Provide an explanation for this result.

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Answer: Increasing the sample size n ______________ the probability that x  40 . This is because the
standard deviation of the sample mean  x =  _______________ as the sample size increases.
n

(e) A random sample of 15 males who are 20 to 29 years old results in a mean upper leg length greater than 46
cm. Do you find the result unusual? Why?

Answer: P( x  46) = 0.0169. Since 0.0169 is smaller than 0.05, finding a random sample of 15 males who are
20 to 29 years old results in a mean upper leg length greater than 46 cm is unusual.

(2) Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion, p̂

Of course, gaining access to all the individuals in a population is rare, so we usually obtain estimates of
population parameters such as the population proportion p using the sample proportion p̂ .
Definition: Suppose that a random sample of size n is obtained from a population in which each individual
either does or does not have a certain characteristic. The sample proportion, denoted p̂ (read “p-hat”), is
x
given by pˆ = where x is the number of individuals in the sample with the specified characteristic. The sample
n
p̂
proportion, , is a statistic that estimates the population proportion, p.
Note that x can be thought of as the number of successes in n trials of a binomial experiment.
Example 1. The Harris Poll conducted a survey of 1200 adult Americans who vacation during the summer and
asked whether the individuals plan to work while on summer vacation. Of those surveyed, 552 indicated that
they plan to work while on vacation. Find the sample proportion of individuals surveyed who plan to work
while on summer vacation.
Note that a second survey of 1200 American adults would likely have a different estimate of the proportion
of Americans who plan to work while on summer vacation because different individuals would be in the
sample. Because the value of p̂ varies from sample to sample, it is a random variable and has a probability
distribution (shape, center, and spread).

Using Simulation to Describe the Distribution of the Sample Proportion

Example: Based on a study conducted by the Gallup organization, 76% of Americans believe that the state of
moral values in the United States is getting worse. Describe the sampling distribution of the sample proportion
for samples of size (a) n = 10, (b) n = 25, (c) n = 60.

Figure (a) shows the histogram of 2000 sample proportions p̂ from samples of size n = 10. Notice that the shape
of the distribution is skewed left. The mean of the 2000 sample proportions is 0.76 and the standard deviation is
0.136. Notice that the mean of the sample proportions equals the population proportion.
Figure (b) shows the histogram for 2000 sample proportions p̂ from samples of size n = 25. Notice that the
histogram is slightly skewed left (although not as skewed as the histogram with n = 10). The mean of the 2000
sample proportions for a sample of size n = 25 is 0.76 and the standard deviation is 0.086.
Figure (c) shows the histogram for 2000 sample proportions p̂ from samples of size n = 60. Notice that the
histogram is approximately normal. The mean of the 2000 sample proportions is 0.76 and the standard deviation
is 0.054.

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Notice the following points regarding the sampling distribution of the sample proportion:

• Shape: As the size of the sample increases, the shape of the distribution of the sample proportion becomes
approximately normal.
• Center: The mean of the distribution of the sample proportion equals the population proportion, p.
• Spread: The standard deviation of the distribution of the sample proportion decreases as the sample size
increases.

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion, p̂

For a simple random sample of size n with a population proportion p,
• The shape of the sampling distribution of p̂ is approximately normal provided np(1 – p) ≥ 10.
• The mean of the sampling distribution of p̂ is  p̂ = p .
p(1 − p)
• The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p̂ is  pˆ =
n

Conditions/Requirements:
1. Simple Random Sampling (SRS): Any sample we take needs to be a simple random sample. Often, we’ll be
told in the problem that sampling was random.
2. The normality condition: np(1 – p) ≥10.
3. The independence condition: the sample size n is no more than 5% of the population size N.

Example 2. Based on a study conducted by the Gallup organization, 76% of Americans believe that the state of
moral values in the United States is getting worse. Suppose we obtain a simple random sample of n = 60
Americans and determine which believe that the state of the moral values in the United States is getting worse.
Describe the sampling distribution of the sample proportion for Americans with this belief.

Answer:

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Example 3. A simple random sample of size n = 75 is obtained from a population whose size is N = 10,000 and
whose population proportion with a specified characteristic is p = 0.8.
(a) Describe the sampling distribution of p̂ .
Answer:
✓ Simple Random Sample (SRS). Shape: p̂ is approximately normal
✓ np(1 − p) = 75(0.8)(1 − 0.8) = 12  10
✓ n / N = 75 /10000 = 0.0075  0.05 Center:  pˆ = p = 0.8 .
p(1 − p) 0.8(1 − 0.8)
Spread:  pˆ = = = 0.046.
n 75
(b) What is the probability of obtaining x = 63 or more individuals with the characteristic?
Answer:

(c) What is the probability of obtaining x = 51 or fewer individuals with the characteristic?
Answer:

Example 4. According to creditcard.com, 29% of adults do not own a credit card.

(a) Suppose a random sample of 500 adults is asked, “Do you own a credit card?” Describe the sampling
distribution of p̂ , the proportion of adults who do not own a credit card.

Answer:

✓ Simple Random Sample (SRS). Shape: p̂ is approximately normal

✓ np(1 − p) = 500(0.29)(1 − 0.29) = 102.95  10 Center:  pˆ = p = 0.29 .
p(1 − p) 0.29(1 − 0.29)
✓ n = 500  0.05 N (Adults) Spread:  pˆ = = = 0.0203.
n 500

(b) What is the probability that in a random sample of 500 adults more than 30% do not own a credit card?
Answer:

(c) What is the probability that in a random sample of 500 adults between 25% and 30% do not own a credit
card?
Answer:

(d) Would it be unusual for a random sample of 500 adults to result in 125 or fewer who do not own a credit
card? Why?
Answer: