Program Evaluation and

Review Technique (PERT)

 PERT

● PERT considers three duration estimates:

○ Optimistic (ta)

○ Most Likely (tm)

○ Pessimistic (tb)
 PERT

● Expected duration (te):

 Example
● If the three estimate from an engineer for a
concrete pouring activity for big foundation are:
○ ta: 4 days

○ tm: 7 days

○ tb: 12 days

○ te ?

○ te= [4 + 4*7 + 12]/6 = 7.33 days = 8 working days

 Normal Distribution
● Normal distribution is defined by:
○ Mean Value “x”

○ Standard deviation “σ”

○ Variance “V” or “σ2”

Normal Distribution

te
 Example 1

A D H

F Finish
Start
G

C I
 Example 1
Activity tm ta tb te σ2
A 3 1 5 3 0.44
B 6 3 9 6 1.00
C 12 9 18 12.5 2.25
D 9 3 12 8.5 2.25
E 3 1 8 3.5 1.36
F 9 8 16 10 1.77
G 7 4 13 7.5 2.25
H 6 3 9 6 1.00
I 3 1 8 3.5 1.36
• ADH: 3+8.5+6 = 17.5 • BF: 6+10 = 16 What is the
• AEF: 3+3.5+10 = 16.5 • BGI: 6+7.5+3.5 = 17 critical path of
• AEGI:3+3.5+7.5+3.5 = 17.5 • CI: 12.5+3.5 = 16 the project?

A D H
3 8.5 6
E
3.5
F
Finish
Start 10
G
7.5
B
6

C I
12.5 3.5
• ADH: 3+8.5+6 = 17.5 • BF: 6+10 = 16 What is the
• AEF: 3+3.5+10 = 16.5 • BGI: 6+7.5+3.5 = 17 critical path of
• AEGI:3+3.5+7.5+3.5 = 17.5 • CI: 12.5+3.5 = 16 the project?

A D H
3 8.5 6
E
3.5
F
Finish
Start 10
G
7.5
B
6

C I
12.5 3.5
● For A-D-H:
○ Duration = 3 + 8.5 + 6 = 17.5
○ V1= 0.444 + 2.25 + 1.0 = 3.694

● For A-E-G-I:
○ Duration = 3+3.5+7.5+3.5= 17.5
○ V2 = 0.444 + 1.361 + 2.25 +1.361=5.416

● V2>V1 → Take the greater spread!

● Then, the Standard Deviation (σ):

○ σ = SQRT (5.416) = 2.33
??

What is the probability of

completing the project
in 19 days?
 Z Probability Probability Z
What is the probability of -2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
completing the project -1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
in 19 days? -1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
1. Calculate the z value:
-0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
z = (T – Mean) / σ -0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
z = (19 - 17.5) / 2.33
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
= 0.644 -0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
2. Find the probability for -0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
the z value (0.644) from -0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
the z tables -0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1

0.739 or 74% 0 0.50 0.50 0

 Example 2
Critical Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Duration Duration Duration
A 2 4 7
G 4 6 8
F 4 7 12
H 5 8 14

1. What is the probability of completing the project

before 24 days?
2. What is the probability of completing the project
before 26 days?
3. What is the probability of completing the project
beyond 30 days?
4. What is the probability of completing the project
between 24 and 30 days?
 Expected Duration Variance
Activity ta tm tb

A 2 4 7 4.17 ((7-2)/6)2
G 4 6 8 6.00 ((8-4)/6)2
F 4 7 12 7.33 ((12-4)/6)2
H 5 8 14 8.50 ((14-5)/6)2

Σ critical path activities 26 5.166

σ = 2.27
 Expected Duration Variance
Activity ta tm tb

A 2 4 7 4.17 ((7-2)/6)2
G 4 6 8 6.00 ((8-4)/6)2
F 4 7 12 7.33 ((12-4)/6)2
H 5 8 14 8.50 ((14-5)/6)2

Σ critical path activities 26 5.166

σ = 2.27
1. Probability of completing Z Probability Probability Z

the project before 24 -2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0

-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
days (T ≤ 24)
-1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
-0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
-0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
1. Probability of completing Z Probability Probability Z
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
the project before 24
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
days (T ≤ 24) -1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
● Z =(24-26) / 2.27 -0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
-0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
= -0.88
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
● From the z Tables
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
● Pr (T ≤ 24) = 18.9%
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
 Z Probability Probability Z
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
-1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
2. Probability of completing the -0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9

project before 26 days (T ≤ 26) -0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8

-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
 Z Probability Probability Z
2. Probability of completing the
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
project before 26 days (T ≤ 26)
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
-1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
● Mean = T → z = 0
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
-0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
● Pr (T ≤ 26) = 50%
-0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
 Z Probability Probability Z
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
-1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
3. Probability of completing the -0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9

project beyond 30 days (T ≥ 30) -0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8

-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
 Z Probability Probability Z
3. Probability of completing
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
the project beyond 30
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
days (T ≥ 30) -1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
● Z =(30-26) / 2.27 -0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
-0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
= 1.76
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
● From z Tables
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
● Pr (T ≤ 30) = 96%
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3

● Pr (T ≥ 30) = 1-0.96 = 4% -0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2

-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
4. Probability of completing the
project between 24 and 30 days

● From 3) Pr (T ≤ 30) =96%

● From 1) Pr (T ≤ 24) =18.9%

● Pr = 0.96 - 0.189 = 0.771 = 77%

 PERT Limitations

● Three duration estimates!

● The values are all estimates.

● Critical path vs. near-critical paths.

 Range Estimating
● Three cost Estimates:
○ L : Optimistic
○ H : Pessimistic
○ M: Most Likely

● Total Project Estimate (E or μ) = Σ E (Activities)

● Variance of Project Estimate (V)= Σ s2
● Standard deviation of Project Estimate (SD) = SQRT (V)
 Example
Most Expected
Activity Lowest Highest σ Variance
Likely Value
1 6,909 9,782 17,800 10,640 1,815 2,294,830

2 2,300 9,003 10,402 8,119 1,350 1,823,400

3 1,800 3,106 3,654 2,980 309 95,481

4 8,790 9,485 13,200 9,641 619 383,367

5 2,600 5,589 6,450 5,234 642 411,736

… … … … … … …

100 … … … … … …

Total 350,000 530,000 650,000 520,000 14,142 200,000,000

 Example
Most Expected
Activity Lowest Highest σ Variance
Likely Value
1 6,909 9,782 17,800 10,640 1,815 2,294,830

2 2,300 9,003 10,402 8,119 1,350 1,823,400

3 1,800 3,106 3,654 2,980 309 95,481

4 8,790 9,485 13,200 9,641

9,988.33 619
735 383,367
540,225

5 2,600 5,589 6,450 5,234 642 411,736

… … … … … … …

100 … … … … … …

Total 350,000 530,000 650,000 520,000 14,142 200,000,000

 Example
● Based on Range Estimating, it was found that Expected
Project Cost (E or μ) = $520,000
● Standard Deviation of Project Cost (SD) =
SQRT(200,000,000) = 14,142

1. What is the probability of completing the project at a cost

under $540,000?
2. What is the project cost that can be achieved with 84%
confidence?
1. Probability of completing the Z Probability Probability Z
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
project under $540,000
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
-1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
-0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
-0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
● From the z Tables: -0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
Pr (z ≤ 1.41) = 92% -0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0
 Z Probability Probability Z
2. Project cost that can be
-2.0 0.02 0.98 +2.0
achieved with 84%
-1.5 0.07 0.93 +1.5
confidence. -1.3 0.10 0.90 +1.3
-1.0 0.16 0.84 +1.0
○ 84% confidence, z? -0.9 0.18 0.82 +0.9
-0.8 0.21 0.79 +0.8
○ z=1
-0.7 0.24 0.76 +0.7
-0.6 0.27 0.73 +0.6
-0.5 0.31 0.69 +0.5
-0.4 0.34 0.66 +0.4
-0.3 0.38 0.62 +0.3
-0.2 0.42 0.58 +0.2
-0.1 0.46 0.54 +0.1
0 0.50 0.50 0