UNIT-5

THEORITECAL DISTRIBUTIONS
 UNIT-V: THEORITECAL DISTRIBUTIONS
Theoretical Distribution: Importance – Conditions –
Constants
Binomial Distribution: Importance – Conditions –
Constants - Fitting of Binomial Distribution
Poisson Distribution: Importance – Conditions –
Constants - Fitting of Poisson Distribution.
Normal Distribution: Importance - Central Limit
Theorem - Characteristics – Fitting a Normal
Distribution (Areas Method Only).
 THEORITECAL DISTRIBUTIONS
• In the real world, we rarely come across experiments
with single outcomes like heads or tails.
• Mostly a set of events are present and we may carry
out the same experiment for n no. of times.
• As a result, we get a collection of outcomes which we
can represent in the form of theoretical (or
probability) distribution.
• We can further categorize it into continuous or
discrete distribution.
• Furthermore, the representation of probabilities as
distribution also helps in making predictions for the
future outcomes.
 TYPES OF THEORITECAL DISTRIBUTIONS

THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS

DISCRETE CONTINUOUS
DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION

BINOMIAL POISSON NORMAL

DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION
• A discrete distribution describes the probability
of occurrence of each value of a discrete random
variable. A discrete random variable is a random
variable that has countable values, such as age of
a person.
• With a discrete probability distribution, each
possible value of the discrete random variable
can be associated with a non-zero probability.
• Thus, a discrete probability distribution is often
presented in tabular form.
 DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION
For example, you can use the discrete distribution
to describe the number of customer complaints
within a day. Suppose the average number of
complaints per day is 10 and you want to know the
probability of receiving 5, 10, and 15 customer
complaints in a day.
 TYPES OF THEORITECAL DISTRIBUTIONS

THEORITECAL
DISTRIBUTIONS

DISCRETE
DISTRIBUTION
BINOMIAL POISSON
DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The binomial distribution gives the discrete
probability distribution of obtaining
exactly n successes out of N trials.
where the result of each trial is true with
probability p and false with probability q=1-p.
The binomial distribution is therefore given by
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• Where number of trails are too large but finite
• Every trial is independent
• Event are mutually exclusive and exhaustive
• Every trial has only two outcomes , occurrence of
one will be known as SUCCESS represented by
“p” and occurrence of another is known as
FAILURE represented by “q”
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION PROPERTIES

Note: Variance is always less than the mean

 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION PROBLEM
1Q. Hospital records show that of patients
suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it.
What is the probability that of 6 randomly
selected patients, 4 will recover?
Find the frequencies of the distribution of
recovery and tabulate the results and also
calculate (i) MEAN (ii) STANDARD DEVIATION of
fitted distribution.
Solution:
This is a binomial distribution because there are
only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does not).
 SOLUTION:
This is a binomial distribution because there are
only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does not).
Let r = number who recover.
Here, n=6 and r=4.
Let p=0.25 (success, that is, they live)
q=0.75 (failure, i.e. they die).
Using Binomial distribution the probability
that 4 will recover is given by the formula:
 SOLUTION:

n = 6 , r=4 , p = 0.25 , q = 0.75

 SOLUTION:
Histogram of this distribution:
SOLUTION:
 SOLUTION:
It means that out of the 6 patients chosen, the
probability that:
None of them will recover is 0.17798,
One will recover 0.35596, and
All 6 will recover is extremely small.
(i) = 6X0.25 = 1.5

(ii)
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION PROBLEM
2Q. A manufacturer of metal boxes finds that on
the average, 12% of his boxes are rejected because
they are either oversize or undersize. What is the
probability that a batch of 10 boxes will contain
(a) not more than 2 rejects? (b) at least 2 rejects?
Solutions:
Let r = number of rejected pistons

(In this case, "success" means rejection)

Here, n=10, p=0.12, q=0.88.

 SOLUTION:
(a)
No rejects. That is, when r = 0
n=10, p=0.12, q=0.88.
 SOLUTION:
One reject.
That is, when r = 1
n=10, p=0.12, q=0.88.
 SOLUTION:
Two reject.
That is, when r = 2
n=10, p=0.12, q=0.88.
 SOLUTION:
So the probability of getting not more than 2
rejects is given as
Probability = P(X ≤ 2)
= 0.2785+ +0.37977+ 0.23304
= 0.89131

b) Probability of at least 2 rejects

=1− P(X ≤ 1)
=1−(P(0​)+P(1​))
=1−(0.2785+0.37977)
=0.34173
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• The Poisson distribution is the discrete probability
distribution that results from a Poisson
experiment of the number of events occurring in
a given time period, given the average number of
times the event occurs over that time period.
• The experiment results in outcomes that can be
classified as successes or failures.
• The Poisson distribution has applications in
biology (especially mutation detection), finance,
disaster readiness, and any other situation in
which events are time-independent.
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION PROPERTIES
• An event can occur any number of times during a
time period.
• Events occur independently. In other words, if an
event occurs, it does not affect the probability of
another event occurring in the same time period.
• The rate of occurrence is constant; that is, the rate
does not change based on time.
• The probability of an event occurring is very small.
• The probability of an event occurring is proportional
to the length of the time period. For example, it
should be twice as likely for an event to occur in a 2
hour time period than it is for an event to occur in a
1 hour period.
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The probability of any successful event using poisson
distribution is given by

μ= Average or Mean = np
n= Number of trails
r= Number of success required
p= Probability of success in one trail
q= Probability of failure in one trail
e= 2.71828
 Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution
If μ is the average number (Mean) of successes
occurring in a given time interval or region in the
Poisson distribution, then the mean and the
variance of the Poisson Distribution are both equal
to μ.
E(r) = μ
and
V(r) = σ2 = μ
NOTE: In a Poisson distribution,
only one parameter μ is needed to determine the
probability of an event.
 When to apply
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
or
POISSON DISTRIBUTION ?
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION  PROBLEM
1Q. A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3
life insurance policies per week. Use Poisson's law
to calculate the probability that in a given week he
will sell
(i) Some policies
(ii) 2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.
(iii) Assuming that there are 5 working days per
week, what is the probability that in a given day he
will sell one policy?
SOLUTION:
 SOLUTION:
Given average life insurance policies per week
(Mean μ) = 3
(i) "Some policies" means "1 or more policies".
We can work this out by finding 1 minus the "zero
policies" probability:
 SOLUTION:
Therefore the probability of 1 or more policies is
given by:
Probability
 SOLUTION:
(ii) 2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.
The probability of selling 2 or more, but less than 5
policies is: P(2 ≤ X <5)
 SOLUTION:
(iii) Assuming that there are 5 working days per
week, what is the probability that in a given day he
will sell one policy?

Average number of policies sold per day:

So on a given day
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION  PROBLEM
2Q. Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were
examined for surface flaws. The frequency of the
number of sheets with a given number of flaws per
sheet was as follows:

What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen at

random which contains 3 or more surface flaws?
 SOLUTION:
The total number of flaws is given by:

So the average number of flaws for the 20 sheets is

given by:

The required probability P(r) is:

Probability = P(r ≥ 3)
 SOLUTION:

The probability of finding a sheet chosen at random

which contains 3 or more surface flaws is 0.40396
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION  PROBLEM
3Q. If electricity power failures occur according to a
Poisson distribution with an average of 3failures
every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that
there will not be more than one failure during a
particular week.
Solution:
The average number of failures per week is:
 SOLUTION:
Not more than one failure, means we need to
include the probabilities for “0 failures" plus “
1 failure".
Which is given by
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION  PROBLEM
4Q. Vehicles pass through a junction on a busy road
at an average rate of 300per hour.
(i) Find the probability that none passes in a given
minute.
(ii) What is the expected number passing in two
minutes?
(iii) Find the probability that this expected number
actually pass through in a given two-minute period.
Solution: The average number of cars per minute is:
 SOLUTION:
(i) The probability that none passes in a given
minute is given by
 SOLUTION:
(ii) The probability of expected number passing in
two minutes is given by
 SOLUTION:
(iii) The probability that this expected number
actually pass through in a given two-minute period
is given as

Now, with μ = 10, we have:

 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTION
• A continuous distribution describes the
probabilities of the possible values of a
continuous random variable. A continuous
random variable is a random variable with a set
of possible values (known as the range) that is
infinite and uncountable.

• The probability that a continuous random

variable equals some value is always zero.
CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTION
 NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• The normal distribution is a continuous
probability distribution that is symmetrical
on both sides of the mean, so the right side
of the center is a mirror image of the left
side.
• The area under the normal distribution curve
represents probability and the total area
under the curve sums to one.
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS CURVE
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS CURVE
 NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
CURVE FEATURES
• Symmetric bell shape
• Mean and Median are equal; both located at
the center of the distribution
• ≈68% of the data falls within 1 standard
deviation of the mean
• ≈95% of the data falls within 2 standard
deviations of the mean
• ≈99.7% of the data falls within 3 standard
deviations of the mean
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
CURVE FEATURES
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
CURVE FEATURES
NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
CURVE FEATURES
 DRAWING A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION - EXAMPLE
1Q. The trunk diameter of a certain variety of pine
tree is normally distributed with a mean of
μ=150cmm and a standard deviation of σ=30cm.
Solution: Step 1: Sketch a normal curve.
Step 2: The mean of 150cm goes in the middle.
Step 3: Each standard deviation is a distance of
30cm.
DRAWING A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION - EXAMPLE
END OF UNIT-5