Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

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Finance Research Letters

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/frl

The role of large shareholder holdings in customer concentration

and stock price volatility
Xiaolong Li a, b, *, Xue Shi c
a
School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Chaoyang 100029, Beijing, China
b
Business School, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471023, Henan, China
c
Foreign Languages School, Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology, Luoyang, 471023, Henan, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This paper study of the relationship between customer concentration and stock price volatility
Customer concentration using a sample of China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022. It is found that the in­
Stock price volatility crease in customer concentration has a significant negative impact on stock price volatility. The
Major shareholder shareholding
share price of companies with state-owned backgrounds is relatively less affected by customer
concentration. Increased customer concentration in companies with a high proportion of shares
held by principal shareholders leads to increased share price volatility. The results of this study
have important implications for understanding the impact of firm-customer relationships on stock
price stability.

1. Introduction

Currently, numerous upstream and downstream listed companies in the A-share market that have close cooperation relationships
with major manufacturers such as Apple, Huawei, and Tesla have formed various concept stocks. Whenever there are significant
changes in the business conditions or strategic directions of manufacturers like Apple and Huawei, the business conditions and stock
prices of these manufacturers’ upstream suppliers are often greatly affected. Therefore, within a certain period, the stocks of the entire
related concept sector often exhibit clear upward or downward trends (Lee et al., 2020). From this perspective, under the backdrop of
gradually improving collaborative development between upstream and downstream industry chains, the close relationships between
customers and suppliers have had a significant impact on the macro economy and financial markets (Dong et al., 2021). This impact is
particularly evident for companies with a high degree of customer concentration.
In the market environment, the supplier-customer relationship is an important economic resource for the development of a
company’s business. Against the backdrop of upstream and downstream division of labor and cooperation, suppliers and customers
cooperate closely in important areas of enterprise daily operations such as management, production, sales, and research and devel­
opment. Through long-term tacit cooperation, they contribute economic benefits to each other (Cao et al., 2021). To better bring
benefits to each other through cooperation, both parties will adopt more means such as long-term agreements and cross-shareholding
to deepen the depth of cooperation, achieve more interest binding, and effectively promote the process of specialized division of labor
in the industrial chain and economic globalization (Ma et al., 2020). Long-term cooperation has continuously deepened the trust
between customers and suppliers, which has gradually reduced transaction costs and brought considerable economic benefits to both

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (X. Li).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105643
Received 17 January 2024; Received in revised form 22 May 2024; Accepted 22 May 2024
Available online 27 May 2024
1544-6123/© 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.
X. Li and X. Shi Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

parties (Huang et al., 2016).

Through reviewing the literature, it is found that many scholars have paid attention to the fact that cooperation between the
upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is expected in the economic field and carried out in-depth research on the problems
in this field, thus proposing the theories and concepts such as the theory of transaction costs, the theory of negotiating power, and the
theory and concepts such as the relationship-specific investment, which have made a large number of contributions to the exploration
of the reasons for, ways of, and impacts of the cooperation between the customer and the supplier. However, the integration and
development of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is a double-edged sword for both the social economy and the en­
terprises themselves. From the macroeconomic level, in China, the increase in production capacity brought about by economic
development has gradually transformed the domestic market from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market and finally evolved into the
phenomenon of overcapacity (Li et al., 2023). On this basis, many enterprises that are deeply tied to customers lose bargaining power,
which puts them in a weak position in business cooperation with customers, and thus are forced to adopt defensive business strategies
and increase cash holdings, which reduces the company’s investment in innovation, and ultimately makes it more challenging to get
rid of the dependence on large customers, and undermines the vitality of technological innovation.
Based on this, this paper selects China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022 as a research sample to explore the impact of
customer concentration and stock price volatility. It is found that the increase in customer concentration has a significant negative
effect on stock price volatility; the stock price of companies with state-owned backgrounds is relatively less affected by customer
concentration; companies with a high proportion of shares held by principal shareholders with, the listing of customer concentration
increases the level of stock price volatility.
Although the previous literature has discussed customer concentration and stock price volatility in more detail, more relevant
literature must be combined with customer concentration in listed company stock price volatility for research. This paper summarizes
the research results in these two areas and, on this basis, combines the two to provide a new perspective for exploring the influencing
factors of listed companies’ stock price volatility.

2. Theoretical analysis and research hypotheses

First, consider the impact of customer concentration on the business situation of listed companies. An increase in customer con­
centration will lead to firms choosing conservative business strategies, thereby reducing the risk of business operations. As the daily
operation activities of such firms are more oriented to a few significant customers, their routine operations include production, R&D,
and sales. It will be centred around a relatively limited group of customers, making the firm’s operation results deeply bound to some
large customers with an essential voice in the industry (Liu et al., 2023). Such large customers tend to have a certain degree of stability
in their operations, which makes the upstream suppliers’ performance relatively stable, with a relatively low probability of incurring
significant losses (Cao et al., 2022). However, a high degree of customer concentration also leads to the influence of listed companies’
power of speech when facing customers, making it difficult for them to achieve explosive growth in performance through price in­
creases and the development of new customers (Li et al., 2021). Therefore, the increase in customer concentration will likely stabilise
the operation of listed companies, affecting investors’ investment behaviours in these stocks. For investors with a large amount of
capital, lower operational risk allows them to hold stocks for a more extended period, reduce the frequency of trading, and gain returns
from the long-term development of listed companies. From this perspective, the increase in customer concentration of listed companies
can prevent the emergence of large-scale market buying or selling phenomenon brought about by significant fluctuations in operating
results from ah by reducing the business risk of enterprises, which in turn reduces the level of volatility of listed companies’ stock prices
(Bendig et al., 2018). Secondly, the effect of customer concentration on market information is considered. The research results of (Shi
et al., 2022) illustrate the relationship between the amount of information about listed companies and the stability of share prices, and
it is found that more information about listed companies will be conducive to reducing the volatility of share prices. From the results of
literature combing and analysis, although the increase in customer concentration has both positive and negative impacts on the
transmission of information about listed companies to the market, more research results show that the increase of customer con­
centration will reduce the synchronisation of stock price, indicating that in general customer concentration has a positive effect on the
transmission of information about listed companies’ idiosyncrasies (Moser et al., 2017). Therefore, this paper argues that customer
concentration can increase the publicly available idiosyncratic information of listed companies, stabilising the level of stock price
volatility (Wang et al., 2022).
Based on this, this paper proposes the following hypotheses.
H1. As customer concentration rises, the stock price volatility of listed companies will decrease.
China’s primary economic system emphasises public ownership as the main body and the joint development of a multiple-
ownership economy (Zhanget al., 2023). Hence, enterprises with state-owned backgrounds have a rather important position in
China’s economic operation (Vidal-Llana et al., 2023). Many large SOEs and central enterprises are burdened with more social re­
sponsibilities while achieving profitability goals (Zhang et al., 2022). Thus, the marketisation level of SOEs is more limited than that of
private enterprises, especially in some critical economic sectors that concern the country’s economy and people’s livelihood. In this
context, many state-owned enterprises have a lot of economic transactions with each other, forming an upstream and downstream
relationship in the industrial chain that is different from that of private enterprises (Lang et al., 2023). This economic cooperation
between SOEs is sometimes not only for economic sense but also needs to consider the impact of corporate behaviour on social
development, so the correlation between customer-supplier relationships between SOEs and their operating performance is weakened,
which leads to a weaker level of correlation between changes in customer concentration and their stock price volatility in SOEs

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X. Li and X. Shi Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

Table 1
Variable definition table.
Variable type Variable name Variable Definition
symbol

Dependent Stock price volatility vola Standard deviation of stock returns

variable
Independent Customer Concentration Coustom Measure of the ratio of sales to revenue of a listed company’s top five
variable customers
Control variable Earnings per share level eps Earnings per share level
Ratio of outstanding shares to total shr Total number of outstanding shares of each class as a percentage of the
share capital company’s total share capital
Gearing lev The ratio of total liabilities to total assets
Systemic risk beta Beta coefficients for individual stocks
Company size size Natural logarithm of total assets
Annual stock turnover Volu Natural logarithm of annual stock transaction value
Percentage of cash holdings Cash Cash and cash equivalents/total assets

compared to that in private enterprises (Wen et al., 2023).

Based on this, this paper proposes the following hypothesis.
H2. Compared with listed companies with state-owned backgrounds, the share price volatility of listed companies without state-
owned backgrounds is relatively more significantly affected by changes in customer concentration.
China’s socialist market economy since the reform and opening up has been external. In the process, several enterprises emerged
through independent entrepreneurship to achieve great success, mastering many company stakes to have the identity of the majority
shareholder. By analysing the history of significant shareholders’ entrepreneurship, it can be found that their entrepreneurial process is
essential to their mastery of social relationship resources. Su et al., (2024) show that the social relationship ability of manufacturers has
a significant impact on pull marketing and corporate performance. When a firm establishes closer social relationships with its cus­
tomers, the two parties are likely to transact because of such social relationships, which affects business performance. Chen et al.(2022)
found that firms with more frequent relationship-specific investments report revenues tied to vendors with deep relationships. Ding
et al. (2021) analysed that the inter-firm transactional exchanges established based on social relationships will affect changes in firm
fundamentals, leading to changes in the valuation level of its stock. Therefore, such social relationship resources from large share­
holders can obtain downstream customers for firms, thus affecting firms’ operational performance. By studying large shareholders ’
shareholding ratio, Yost et al. (2020) found a positive correlation between large shareholders’ shareholding and firms’ operational
effectiveness. Comprehensive analysis of the above, this paper argues that in companies with a high proportion of large shareholders’
shareholding, the large shareholders have a more significant impact on business operations, so their social resources street may be
transformed into resources utilised in the daily operation of the enterprise, the study of the impact of customer concentration on the
volatility of listed companies’ share price household resources is one of the most representative resources. The customers acquired
through shareholders’ social resources depend to a certain extent on the social relationship between shareholders and customers, so
there is a certain instability.
Based on this, this paper proposes the following hypotheses.
H3. Other conditions remain unchanged; the increase in customer concentration in companies with a high proportion of significant
shares in the shareholding will exacerbate the volatility of the company’s share price.

3. Study design

3.1. Sample selection

The research data in this paper mainly comes from the CSMAR database and Wind database; to obtain sufficient and complete
samples, this paper includes the period of 2012–2022, covering most of the A-share listed companies. By processing the data as follows:
(1) excluding real estate and financial listed companies; (2) excluding ST companies; (3) excluding companies with data outliers.
Finally, 69,976 research samples were obtained.

3.2. Definition of variables

3.2.1. Dependent variable

Stock price volatility (Vola): The article selects the standard deviation of semi-annual weekly returns of listed companies as a proxy
for stock price volatility. According to the half-yearly cycle, n weeks are split in half a year, obtaining the closing price epi of the last
trading day of each week and the previous closing price bpi of the initial trading day, and taking "epi/bpi − 1" as the return ri in the
interval, and finally calculate the volatility of the stock price according to the formula.
{ ∑ [( ∑ ) ]/ }
vola = ri − ri / n ∧ 2 (n − 1) ∧ 0.5

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X. Li and X. Shi Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

Table 2
Descriptive statistical analysis.
N Mean Std Min Max

vola 69,976 0.031 0.025 0.000 2.398

Coustom 69,976 0.326 0.253 0.001 0.634
eps 69,976 0.215 0.487 -0.149 0.328
shr 69,976 0.825 0.316 0.047 1.000
lev 69,976 0.427 0.218 0.189 0.779
beta 69,976 0.558 0.313 -0.695 2.274
size 69,976 22.379 1.576 18.786 26.808
Volu 69,976 23.975 1.464 23.997 28.995
Cash 69,976 0.147 0.907 0.075 0.529

Table 3
Results of the main regression test.
(1) vola (2) vola

Coustom -0.313*** -0.175***

(-3.79) (-2.97)
eps -3.559***
(-4.26)
shr -0.475***
(-31.26)
lev 0.023***
(3.97)
beta 13.259***
(27.53)
size 0.826***
(5.89)
Volu -0.072*
(-1.73)
Cash -0.783**
(2.21)
Cons -13.325*** -12.394***
(-11.95) (-13.56)
Ind No Yes
Year No Yes
N 69,976 69,976
Adj-R2 0.476 0.335

t statistics in parentheses.
*
p < 0.10.
**
p < 0.05.
***
p < 0.01.

3.2.2. Independent variables

Customer Concentration (Coustom): This paper chooses the ratio of sales to operate revenues of listed companies to their top five
customers as an indicator to measure the customer concentration of listed companies. The data can be obtained from listed companies’
annual and semi-annual reports, so the customer concentration index is based on a 6-month cycle.

3.2.3. Control variables

This paper controls for the following variables: net interest rate on total assets (rate), shares outstanding as a percentage of total
equity (shr), gearing (lev), systematic risk (beta), firm size (size), book-to-market ratio (Mta), annual trading volume of the stock (Volu),
and percentage of cash holdings (Cash), as well as dummies for industry (Ind) and year (Year).
See Table 1 for the definitions of specific variables:

3.3. Model construction

The basic model constructed in this paper is as follows:

∑ ∑
volait = α + β1 Coustomit + βControlit + Year + Ind + εit (1)

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X. Li and X. Shi Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

Table 4
Heterogeneity analysis.
vola

State-owned enterprise Non state-owned enterprises

Coustom -0.087 -0.416***

(-1.27) (-3.09)
eps -3.275*** -2.993***
(-2.97) (-3.63)
shr 1.157*** 1.529***
(8.59) (7.43)
lev 0.116*** 0.207***
(3.53) (3.87)
beta 0.046*** 0.037***
(3.29) (3.96)
size 0.582*** 0.639***
(3.82) (4.25)
Volu -0.116* -0.133
(-1.72) (-0.97)
Cash -0.352** -0.497**
(2.21) (2.18)
Cons -16,214*** -23.389***
(-9.37) (-12.46)
Ind Yes Yes
Year Yes Yes
N 20,102 49,874
Adj-R2 0.373 0.386

t statistics in parentheses.
*
p < 0.10.
**
p < 0.05.
***
p < 0.01.

4. Empirical analysis

4.1. Descriptive statistical analysis

Table 2 presents the results of the descriptive statistics analysis. The mean value of stock price volatility is 0.031, the maximum
value is 2.398, and the minimum value is 0, indicating significant differences in the level of stock price volatility of different stocks
under specific extreme conditions. The mean value of customer concentration is 0.326, indicating that the level of customer con­
centration of major listed companies in China is relatively high.

4.2. Main test regression results

Table 3 presents the results of the correlation between customer concentration and stock price volatility. From the results, it can be
seen that the coefficients of customer concentration are all significantly negative at the 1 % level, indicating that with the increase of
customer concentration, listed companies tend to be more conservative in their business strategies and their business performance is
more stable, which leads to a decrease in the level of stock price volatility, and hypothesis H1 is confirmed. When customer con­
centration is high, it means that the company’s main source of income relies on a few major customers. In this case, in order to maintain
long-term cooperative relationships with major customers, the company usually adopts a more robust business strategy and avoids
risky behaviors to prevent disruptions to its business relationships with major customers. In the capital market, investors usually pay
attention to a company’s profitability and risk level. When a company’s operating performance is stable, investors will have more
confidence in the company’s future development, which helps reduce the volatility of stock prices. Conversely, if a company’s
operating performance is unstable, investors may have doubts about the company’s future development, leading to an increase in stock
price volatility.

4.3. Heterogeneity

The results of testing hypothesis H2 are presented in Table 4. The results of column (1) show that the correlation coefficient be­
tween customer concentration and share price volatility for listed companies with state-owned backgrounds is negative but not sig­
nificant. This indicates no significant correlation between customer concentration and stock price volatility for companies with state-
owned backgrounds. According to China’s current economic development, state-owned enterprises often dominate the industrial
chain. In some critical economic sectors, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are mainly composed of state-owned
enterprises. The results of column (2) show that the customer concentration of listed companies without state-owned background
has a significant negative correlation with the level of stock price volatility. The operation of enterprises with non-state-owned

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X. Li and X. Shi Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

Table 5
Intermediary effect.
(1) vola (2) vola

Coustom -0.083** -0.397***

(-2.09) (-2.97)
Share -0.029** -0.117***
(-2.26) (-3.95)
Coustom*Share 0.273***
(7.97)
Controls Yes Yes
Ind Yes Yes
Year Yes Yes
N 69,976 69,976
Adj.R2 0.334 0.295

t statistics in parentheses.
*p< 0.10.
**
p < 0.05.
***
p < 0.01.

Table 6
Endogeneity test.
Phase I Phase II
Coustom vol

Coustom -0.293***
(-3.91)
Coustom_IV 0.076***
(5.57)
Controls Yes Yes
N 62,784 62,784
Adj.R2 0.416 0.293
F-test 179.082
LM statistic 327.595***
Wald F statistic 264.337***

t statistics in parentheses.
*p< 0.10, **p< 0.05.
***
p < 0.01.

backgrounds is more dependent on market-oriented factors, which in turn makes them face more incentive competition. When the
operating ability of the firms is insufficient, they may face the risks of losing customers and failing to expand their business. The
increase in customer concentration allows such enterprises to develop themselves to a certain extent by relying on vital large cus­
tomers, thus relatively avoiding the risk of market competition and obtaining capital for the enterprise’s long-term development
through relationship-specific investment in large customers. Hypothesis H2 is confirmed.

4.4. Analysis of moderating effects

Table 5 presents the role of the interaction of significant shareholder ownership (Share) and customer concentration on stock price
volatility. The results show that the coefficient of the interaction term between large shareholders’ shareholding and customer con­
centration is significantly positive. This indicates that in listed firms with a more significant proportion of shareholding by the majority
shareholder, the firm’s share price volatility rises accordingly with the listing of customer concentration. This is because companies
with a large proportion of shares held by large shareholders will utilize the social resources at their disposal to bring essential cus­
tomers to the firm. There is a certain degree of instability in such social resources, which makes the impact of customer concentration
on the company’s business situation more intense, making the company’s share price prone to more dramatic volatility. Hypothesis H4
is confirmed.

4.5. Endogenous

There may be a mutual causal relationship between customer concentration and stock price volatility, so this paper introduces
instrumental variables to solve possible endogenous problems. In the endogeneity test, this paper adopts the mean customer con­
centration of various industries (Coustom_IV) as an instrumental variable. Firstly, there is a clear correlation between customer
concentration and the mean customer concentration of the industry. This is because the level of customer concentration in an industry
is often influenced by a variety of common factors, such as market demand, competitive landscape, and industry rules. There is no
conclusive evidence to show a direct correlation between industry customer concentration and stock price volatility. This means that

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X. Li and X. Shi Finance Research Letters 65 (2024) 105643

the mean customer concentration of the industry, as an instrumental variable, should be exogenous in theory, that is, it does not
directly affect stock price volatility, but indirectly affects it by influencing a company’s customer concentration. Then the 2SLS method
is used to conduct an endogeneity test. The specific results are shown in Table 6, and the results are still robust.

5. Conclusion

This paper selects China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022 as a research sample to explore the impact of customer
concentration and share price volatility. It is found that the increase in customer concentration has a significant negative effect on stock
price volatility; the stock price of companies with state-owned backgrounds is relatively less affected by customer concentration;
companies with a high proportion of shares held by principal shareholders with, the listing of customer concentration increases the
level of stock price volatility.
Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes the following implications:
For enterprises, understanding the impact of customer concentration on stock price volatility can help them better consider the
reaction of the financial market when formulating supply chain management strategies. For enterprises with high customer con­
centration, they can stabilize their stock prices and enhance investor confidence by optimizing supply chain management and reducing
business risks. For investors, this study provides a new perspective to evaluate the investment value of listed companies. When in­
vestors pay attention to the fundamentals of a company, they can combine supply chain indicators such as customer concentration to
more comprehensively evaluate the company’s business risks and future development potential.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Xiaolong Li: Validation, Supervision, Resources, Project administration, Investigation, Funding acquisition. Xue Shi: Writing –
original draft, Visualization, Supervision, Software, Resources, Investigation, Funding acquisition.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Data availability

The authors do not have permission to share data.

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