Monte Carlo Sample for 'Six Sigma for Powerful Improvement'

This is NOT a standalone worksheet or tool. It is intended to be used with the section on Monte Carlo simulations w
in Chapter 19 of 'Six Sigma for Powerful Improvement.'
This worksheet provides a link to the sample worksheets in this workbook along with a reminder on configuring Exc
to work with workbooks that have data tables on multiple worksheets.

Links to Explanations Links to Worksheets

1. Working with data tables on multiple worksheets GoTo

in the same workbook.

2. Investment Analysis (Deterministic) example GoTo GoTo

3. Card Sales (Stochastic) example GoTo GoTo

4. Magazine Sales (Stochastic) example GoTo GoTo

Working with data tables on multiple worksheets in the same workbook.

If you are using multiple data tables within the same workbook, you might have a problem with the time it takes
Excel to update every one of them every time there is any change anywhere within the workbook. The solution
to this problem is to configure Excel to NOT automatically update all of the data tables.

Excel 2007 – Restricting

automatic recalculation on
data tables
Excel 97-2003 – Restricting
automatic recalculation on
data tables
 data tables
Excel 97-2003 – Restricting
automatic recalculation on
data tables

Excel has global options that you are probably familiar with. They differ in the two versions. Both are easy to
work with, however. The figure above shows how to disable the automatic calculation of data tables. If you do
this in Excel 2007, you still may want to uncheck the box to automatically re-calculate all of the data tables
when saving.
If you choose to go "manual," select Shift+F9 whenever you want to re-calculate and you will only affect the
data tables on the active worksheet. If you select F9, you will still re-calculate all of the data tables.
Return to Link

Investment analysis (deterministic) model

This is a very simple worksheet with a single model and explanations.
Return to Link

Card sales (stochastic) model

2 3
1 5
4

1. 400 detailed stat trials

2. Detailed stat setup and lookup This is the mechanism that translates
3. Baseline function the random number into a card
4. Final stats for 4 production choices production number for each trial.
5. 400 generalized stat trials
6. Bins and dynamic graph

Selected random number interval

translates into occurrence percentage
and actual result of a trial

Return to Links

Magazine sales (stochastic) model

2 6
5
3
 2 6
5
3
1

1. Function baseline. Return to Links

2. Mechanism to turn random
numbers into magazine dmd.
3. Results of 100 trials across 5 options
of magazines ordered.
4. Results of 100 trials with top choices
highlighted in each statistical item row.
5. Frequencies of option profits charted
against equivalent bins.
6. Graphical results of 100 trials.
mprovement'
onte Carlo simulations with Excel that is

inder on configuring Excel 97-2003 or 2007

Worksheets

time it takes
The solution

icting
on on
icting
on on

s. If you do

anism that translates

ber into a card
ber for each trial.
 Return on Investment Analysis - Deterministic Simulation

This is, essentially, a "Future Value" analysis. The basic formula is:
Given that the "Present Value" is in B7, interest rate is in B9 and period of investment is in B9, the formula is:
'=$B$8*((1+(B9/12))^B10)
Solved
Function Investment Periods (months)
Principle $100,000 $ 128,335.87 36 48 60 72
Rate 5% 5% $ 116,147.22 $ 122,089.54 $ 128,335.87 $ 134,901.77
Rates

Periods 60 5.50% $ 117,894.86 $ 124,545.06 $ 131,570.38 $ 138,991.98

6% $ 119,668.05 $ 127,048.92 $ 134,885.02 $ 143,204.43
Basic 6.50% $ 121,467.16 $ 129,602.04 $ 138,281.73 $ 147,542.72
Components
of the Press Shift+F9 or F9 to update Return to Home
Function
, the formula is:
 Card Sales - Stochastic Simulation Example
Return Home
Stats Dmd 4 cards %
Trial Rand() Dmd DetailDmd 0 10,000 0.1 mean
1 0.940638 60000 55,602 0.1 20,000 0.35 sigma
2 0.235755 20000 32,800 0.45 40,000 0.3
3 0.021864 10000 19,833 0.75 60,000 0.25
4 0.867542 60000 51,148 Detailed proportion
5 0.052684 10000 23,806 0.1075
6 0.020116 10000 19,487 0.3725
7 0.649491 40000 43,839 0.2825
8 0.911038 60000 53,472 0.2375
9 0.411894 20000 37,773 This is the probability of having a
10 0.145431 20000 29,438 demand for 10,000; 20,000; 40,000
11 0.265716 20000 33,742 or 60,000 cards independent of
12 0.451242 40000 38,775 the number made.
13 0.471617 40000 39,288 Stats Dmd for cards
14 0.024883 10000 20,380 0 10,000
15 0.994097 60000 65,179 0.1 20,000
16 0.349379 20000 36,130 0.45 40,000
17 0.514801 40000 40,371 0.75 60,000
18 0.318072 20000 35,269
19 0.890634 60000 52,299 400 Trials demonstrating
20 0.962657 60000 57,824 detailed demand
21 0.322616 20000 35,396
22 0.296963 20000 34,668
23 0.525216 40000 40,632
24 0.210017 20000 31,936
25 0.854628 60000 50,565
26 0.205358 20000 31,774
27 0.274372 20000 34,004
28 0.510394 40000 40,261
29 0.676881 40000 44,590
30 0.404962 20000 37,595
31 0.169771 20000 30,449
32 0.872174 60000 51,367
33 0.830749 60000 49,571
34 0.094943 10000 26,891
35 0.242031 20000 33,002
36 0.348553 20000 36,108
37 0.403252 20000 37,551
38 0.565704 40000 41,654
39 0.410455 20000 37,736
40 0.337322 20000 35,802
41 0.111334 20000 27,805
42 0.36568 20000 36,567
43 0.557627 40000 41,450
44 0.093652 10000 26,814
45 0.183933 20000 30,995
46 0.916562 60000 53,823
47 0.361022 20000 36,443
48 0.760536 60000 47,080
49 0.253946 20000 33,379
50 0.079603 10000 25,923
51 0.199214 20000 31,556
52 0.269621 20000 33,860
53 0.516045 40000 40,402
54 0.435524 20000 38,377
55 0.963136 60000 57,883
56 0.97547 60000 59,681
57 0.431323 20000 38,270
58 0.116707 20000 28,084
59 0.599927 40000 42,532
60 0.653072 40000 43,936
61 0.245143 20000 33,101
62 0.173202 20000 30,584
63 0.989561 60000 63,102
64 0.498714 40000 39,968
65 0.803019 60000 48,525
66 0.745605 40000 46,607
67 0.689624 40000 44,948
68 0.509081 40000 40,228
69 0.522797 40000 40,572
70 0.054764 10000 23,997
71 0.692269 40000 45,023
72 0.584067 40000 42,123
73 0.977529 60000 60,052
74 0.630489 40000 43,331
75 0.127943 20000 28,638
76 0.311097 20000 35,073
77 0.286138 20000 34,353
78 0.766271 60000 47,266
79 0.138192 20000 29,115
80 0.533682 40000 40,845
81 0.806866 60000 48,664
82 0.860814 60000 50,840
83 0.342605 20000 35,946
84 0.147389 20000 29,523
85 0.553895 40000 41,355
 86 0.773633 60000 47,509
87 0.36139 20000 36,453
88 0.546837 40000 41,177
89 0.210452 20000 31,951
90 0.003701 10000 13,218
91 0.810612 60000 48,802
92 0.881613 60000 51,831
93 0.597314 40000 42,464
94 0.409328 20000 37,707
95 0.796957 60000 48,308
96 0.291167 20000 34,500
97 0.162693 20000 30,165
98 0.59241 40000 42,337
99 0.893546 60000 52,456
100 0.495963 40000 39,899
101 0.100324 20000 27,203
102 0.444951 20000 38,616
103 0.124528 20000 28,474
104 0.772161 60000 47,460
105 0.026176 10000 20,598
106 0.935634 60000 55,191
107 0.504449 40000 40,112
108 0.307713 20000 34,977
109 0.007818 10000 15,827
110 0.217501 20000 32,193
111 0.117845 20000 28,142
112 0.547393 40000 41,191
113 0.451322 40000 38,777
114 0.741069 40000 46,466
115 0.563193 40000 41,591
116 0.935793 60000 55,204
117 0.625024 40000 43,187
118 0.092824 10000 26,764
119 0.959237 60000 57,419
120 0.936268 60000 55,242
121 0.461486 40000 39,033
122 0.047129 10000 23,267
123 0.015015 10000 18,303
124 0.88322 60000 51,912
125 0.523037 40000 40,578
126 0.262356 20000 33,639
127 0.142779 20000 29,321
128 0.862409 60000 50,912
129 0.341807 20000 35,925
130 0.197404 20000 31,491
131 0.093476 10000 26,803
132 0.781985 60000 47,789
133 0.328031 20000 35,546
134 0.599503 40000 42,521
135 0.828936 60000 49,500
136 0.519545 40000 40,490
137 0.812308 60000 48,864
138 0.633569 40000 43,413
139 0.494733 40000 39,868
140 0.1128 20000 27,882
141 0.707282 40000 45,455
142 0.266204 20000 33,757
143 0.279334 20000 34,152
144 0.993517 60000 64,847
145 0.779506 60000 47,705
146 0.371043 20000 36,709
147 0.693314 40000 45,053
148 0.649047 40000 43,827
149 0.347404 20000 36,077
150 0.637456 40000 43,517
151 0.221925 20000 32,343
152 0.313677 20000 35,145
153 0.19434 20000 31,380
154 0.513349 40000 40,335
155 0.855876 60000 50,620
156 0.715524 40000 45,696
157 0.864285 60000 50,998
158 0.822268 60000 49,240
159 0.638024 40000 43,532
160 0.630847 40000 43,341
161 0.785703 60000 47,916
162 0.986671 60000 62,165
163 0.62635 40000 43,222
164 0.051548 10000 23,700
165 0.648193 40000 43,804
166 0.402373 20000 37,528
167 0.175869 20000 30,688
168 0.848163 60000 50,286
169 0.648329 40000 43,808
170 0.501545 40000 40,039
171 0.132028 20000 28,831
172 0.489374 40000 39,734
173 0.299438 20000 34,740
174 0.984102 60000 61,470
175 0.43354 20000 38,326
176 0.130865 20000 28,777
177 0.136567 20000 29,041
178 0.393387 20000 37,295
179 0.147207 20000 29,515
180 0.396855 20000 37,385
181 0.616359 40000 42,959
182 0.836109 60000 49,786
183 0.023989 10000 20,224
184 0.233098 20000 32,713
185 0.357408 20000 36,346
186 0.913738 60000 53,641
187 0.509896 40000 40,248
188 0.650584 40000 43,869
189 0.865451 60000 51,051
190 0.873635 60000 51,437
191 0.002265 10000 11,613
192 0.820977 60000 49,191
193 0.186003 20000 31,073
194 0.568763 40000 41,732
195 0.05064 10000 23,613
196 0.812429 60000 48,869
197 0.08784 10000 26,458
198 0.558549 40000 41,473
199 0.178385 20000 30,785
200 0.042314 10000 22,756
201 0.669327 40000 44,381
202 0.903606 60000 53,024
203 0.699693 40000 45,235
204 0.716265 40000 45,718
205 0.695059 40000 45,102
206 0.290474 20000 34,480
207 0.796993 60000 48,309
208 0.83183 60000 49,614
209 0.030825 10000 21,312
210 0.197003 20000 31,476
211 0.273477 20000 33,977
212 0.598214 40000 42,487
213 0.690876 40000 44,983
214 0.534461 40000 40,865
215 0.859112 60000 50,763
216 0.727693 40000 46,059
217 0.726899 40000 46,035
218 0.898712 60000 52,742
219 0.715491 40000 45,695
220 0.389013 20000 37,181
221 0.134618 20000 28,952
222 0.04386 10000 22,924
223 0.822215 60000 49,238
224 0.937272 60000 55,323
225 0.689739 40000 44,951
226 0.265969 20000 33,749
227 0.286781 20000 34,372
228 0.210925 20000 31,968
229 0.452152 40000 38,798
230 0.78693 60000 47,958
231 0.67142 40000 44,438
232 0.459062 40000 38,972
233 0.831402 60000 49,597
234 0.668737 40000 44,364
235 0.926079 60000 54,472
236 0.43084 20000 38,258
237 0.401457 20000 37,504
238 0.721618 40000 45,877
239 0.644839 40000 43,714
240 0.838917 60000 49,900
241 0.084748 10000 26,262
242 0.356171 20000 36,313
243 0.352927 20000 36,226
244 0.755645 60000 46,924
245 0.499245 40000 39,981
246 0.315458 20000 35,196
247 0.944226 60000 55,913
248 0.247945 20000 33,190
249 0.364899 20000 36,546
250 0.714871 40000 45,677
251 0.836004 60000 49,782
252 0.83626 60000 49,792
253 0.198534 20000 31,531
254 0.186556 20000 31,093
255 0.502489 40000 40,062
256 0.765233 60000 47,232
257 0.830867 60000 49,576
258 0.229498 20000 32,595
259 0.105682 20000 27,502
260 0.324934 20000 35,461
261 0.189697 20000 31,210
262 0.346196 20000 36,044
263 0.678975 40000 44,648
264 0.581931 40000 42,068
265 0.303984 20000 34,870
266 0.479095 40000 39,476
267 0.00401 10000 13,488
268 0.701824 40000 45,297
269 0.397233 20000 37,395
270 0.197725 20000 31,502
271 0.567245 40000 41,694
272 0.99039 60000 63,412
273 0.89629 60000 52,607
274 0.020297 10000 19,523
275 0.282111 20000 34,234
276 0.061628 10000 24,587
277 0.539599 40000 40,994
278 0.061275 10000 24,558
279 0.150788 20000 29,669
280 0.044458 10000 22,989
281 0.271452 20000 33,916
282 0.813726 60000 48,917
283 0.320033 20000 35,324
284 0.229594 20000 32,598
285 0.675697 40000 44,557
286 0.334885 20000 35,735
287 0.354807 20000 36,276
288 0.494374 40000 39,859
289 0.83558 60000 49,765
290 0.21356 20000 32,059
291 0.965877 60000 58,234
292 0.791934 60000 48,132
293 0.659168 40000 44,102
294 0.507344 40000 40,184
295 0.540814 40000 41,025
296 0.179846 20000 30,840
297 0.323017 20000 35,407
298 0.367069 20000 36,604
299 0.812153 60000 48,859
300 0.595644 40000 42,421
301 0.696424 40000 45,141
302 0.228477 20000 32,561
303 0.655813 40000 44,011
304 0.035751 10000 21,977
305 0.409781 20000 37,719
306 0.1595 20000 30,035
307 0.019444 10000 19,346
308 0.541124 40000 41,033
309 0.063048 10000 24,703
310 0.409161 20000 37,703
311 0.572948 40000 41,839
312 0.322605 20000 35,396
313 0.241586 20000 32,988
314 0.637314 40000 43,513
315 0.342939 20000 35,955
316 0.41084 20000 37,746
317 0.485922 40000 39,647
318 0.195212 20000 31,412
319 0.243243 20000 33,041
320 0.872634 60000 51,389
321 0.756567 60000 46,953
322 0.275176 20000 34,028
323 0.832149 60000 49,627
324 0.054333 10000 23,958
325 0.154635 20000 29,832
326 0.724798 40000 45,972
327 0.522733 40000 40,570
328 0.50025 40000 40,006
329 0.110006 20000 27,735
330 0.194003 20000 31,368
331 0.971743 60000 59,070
332 0.255681 20000 33,433
333 0.174988 20000 30,654
334 0.681932 40000 44,731
335 0.392172 20000 37,263
336 0.492056 40000 39,801
337 0.664963 40000 44,260
338 0.18552 20000 31,055
339 0.841372 60000 50,001
340 0.839645 60000 49,930
341 0.465217 40000 39,127
342 0.087409 10000 26,431
343 0.778495 60000 47,671
344 0.402394 20000 37,528
345 0.676563 40000 44,581
346 0.370701 20000 36,700
347 0.959654 60000 57,467
348 0.103221 20000 27,366
349 0.544183 40000 41,110
350 0.861368 60000 50,865
351 0.069348 10000 25,193
352 0.230144 20000 32,616
353 0.8067 60000 48,658
354 0.867641 60000 51,153
355 0.567776 40000 41,707
356 0.066717 10000 24,993
357 0.125008 20000 28,497
358 0.733202 40000 46,225
359 0.184555 20000 31,019
360 0.236823 20000 32,834
361 0.287695 20000 34,399
362 0.220647 20000 32,300
363 0.968157 60000 58,544
364 0.459195 40000 38,975
365 0.629767 40000 43,312
366 0.980536 60000 60,649
367 0.946285 60000 56,099
368 0.906542 60000 53,198
369 0.894309 60000 52,498
370 0.594465 40000 42,390
371 0.001598 10000 10,517
372 0.184039 20000 30,999
373 0.502717 40000 40,068
374 0.76173 60000 47,119
375 0.528064 40000 40,704
376 0.350278 20000 36,154
377 0.358819 20000 36,384
378 0.08615 10000 26,351
379 0.888581 60000 52,190
380 0.976683 60000 59,896
381 0.7997 60000 48,405
382 0.079006 10000 25,882
383 0.558938 40000 41,483
384 0.131511 20000 28,807
385 0.28048 20000 34,186
386 0.923899 60000 54,318
387 0.683742 40000 44,782
388 0.755849 60000 46,930
389 0.02656 10000 20,661
390 0.237097 20000 32,843
391 0.049799 10000 23,532
392 0.404279 20000 37,577
393 0.739899 40000 46,430
394 0.208422 20000 31,881
395 0.101995 20000 27,297
396 0.126967 20000 28,592
397 0.080053 10000 25,953
398 0.384391 20000 37,060
399 0.089248 10000 26,546
400 0.209336 20000 31,913
 Produced 40,000
40,000 rand# 0.23384506592272
10,000 demand 55,602
unit cost $1.50
unit price $4.00
unit disp $0.30

revenue $160,000.00
tot var cost $60,000.00
tot disp cost $0.00
bility of having a profit $100,000.00
00; 20,000; 40,000
ndependent of blank >>
10K 20K 40K
mean $ 25,000.00 $ 50,000.00 $ 100,000.00
StDev $ - $ - $ -
m + s $ 25,000.00 $ 50,000.00 $ 100,000.00
m - s $ 25,000.00 $ 50,000.00 $ 100,000.00
95% + $ 25,000.00 $ 50,000.00 $ 100,000.00
95% - $ 25,000.00 $ 50,000.00 $ 100,000.00
Profit/Loss results of producing 10,000; 20,000; 40,000
or 60,000 cards averaged over the 1,000 trials
 TRIAL PROFIT
L12 >> $100,000.00 10,000 20,000 40,000 60,000
1 25000 50000 100000 131086.5 Trial Profit/Loss
2 25000 50000 100000 131086.5 for # cards made
3 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
4 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
1,000 Trials 5 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
6 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
7 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
8 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
9 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
10 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
11 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
12 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
60K 13 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
$ 131,086.52 14 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
$ - 15 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
$ 131,086.52 16 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
$131,086.52 17 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
$ 131,086.52 18 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
$ 131,086.52 19 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
20 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
21 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
22 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
23 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
24 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
25 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
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37 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
38 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
39 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
40 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
41 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
42 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
43 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
44 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
45 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
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50 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
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56 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
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 87 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
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743 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
744 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
745 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
746 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
747 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
748 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
749 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
750 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
751 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
752 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
753 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
754 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
755 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
756 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
757 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
758 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
759 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
760 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
761 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
762 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
763 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
764 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
765 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
766 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
767 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
768 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
769 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
770 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
771 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
772 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
773 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
774 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
775 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
776 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
777 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
778 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
779 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
780 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
781 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
782 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
783 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
784 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
785 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
786 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
787 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
788 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
789 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
790 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
791 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
792 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
793 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
794 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
795 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
796 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
797 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
798 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
799 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
800 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
801 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
802 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
803 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
804 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
805 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
806 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
807 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
808 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
809 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
810 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
811 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
812 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
813 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
814 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
815 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
816 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
817 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
818 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
819 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
820 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
821 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
822 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
823 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
824 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
825 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
826 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
827 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
828 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
829 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
830 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
831 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
832 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
833 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
834 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
835 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
836 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
837 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
838 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
839 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
840 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
841 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
842 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
843 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
844 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
845 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
846 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
847 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
848 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
849 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
850 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
851 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
852 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
853 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
854 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
855 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
856 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
857 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
858 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
859 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
860 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
861 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
862 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
863 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
864 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
865 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
866 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
867 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
868 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
869 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
870 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
871 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
872 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
873 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
874 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
875 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
876 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
877 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
878 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
879 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
880 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
881 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
882 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
883 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
884 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
885 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
886 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
887 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
888 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
889 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
890 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
891 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
892 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
893 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
894 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
895 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
896 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
897 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
898 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
899 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
900 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
901 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
902 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
903 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
904 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
905 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
906 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
907 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
908 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
909 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
910 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
911 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
912 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
913 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
914 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
915 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
916 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
917 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
918 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
919 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
920 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
921 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
922 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
923 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
924 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
925 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
926 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
927 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
928 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
929 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
930 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
931 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
932 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
933 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
934 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
935 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
936 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
937 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
938 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
939 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
940 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
941 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
942 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
943 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
944 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
945 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
946 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
947 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
948 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
949 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
950 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
951 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
952 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
953 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
954 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
955 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
956 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
957 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
958 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
959 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
960 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
961 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
962 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
963 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
964 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
965 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
966 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
967 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
968 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
969 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
970 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
971 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
972 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
973 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
974 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
975 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
976 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
977 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
978 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
979 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
980 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
981 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
982 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
983 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
984 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
985 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
986 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
 987 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
988 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
989 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
990 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
991 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
992 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
993 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
994 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
995 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
996 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
997 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
998 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
999 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
1000 25000 50000 100000 131086.5
 Cards made Statistics, Bin table and Chart for Profit/Loss when 40,00
Trial Profit/Loss $100,000.00 MIN

% of Trials Profit Experienced

for # cards made $100,000.00 MAX

BIN Count %
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0% 60.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0% Greeting Card Pr
$100,000.00 0 0.0% 50.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0% 40.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0% 30.0%

$100,000.00 1000 100.0%

$100,000.00 0 0.0% 20.0%

$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0% 10.0%

$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0% 0.0%

$100,000.00 0 0.0%
$100,000.00 0 0.0%
t for Profit/Loss when 40,000 cards are made

Greeting Card Profit @ 40K Production

Profit ($)
 Magazine Sales Stochastic Model example

mean3 Range Mag Dmd % mean $ 14.25

st_dev3 0.00 15 10% stdev $ -
ordr_qty3 35 0.10 20 20% $ 4.25 15
cost3 $ 1.00 0.30 25 30% 1 14.25
sell_price3 $ 1.95 0.60 30 25% 2 14.25
rtn_price $ 0.50 0.85 35 15% 3 14.25
random 0.0630578 Translate random number 4 14.25
demand3 15 into magazine demand 5 14.25
sell_nr3 15 6 14.25
return_nr3 20 7 14.25
profit3 $ 4.25 8 14.25
Baseline Function for profit 9 14.25
=-(ordr_qty3*cost3)+(sell_nr3*sell_price3)+(return_nr3*rtn_price) 10 14.25
11 14.25
12 14.25
100 Trials showing wkly profit 13 14.25
14 14.25
15 14.25
16 14.25
17 14.25
18 14.25
19 14.25
20 14.25
21 14.25
22 14.25
23 14.25
24 14.25
25 14.25
26 14.25
27 14.25
28 14.25
29 14.25
30 14.25
31 14.25
32 14.25
33 14.25
34 14.25
35 14.25
36 14.25
37 14.25
38 14.25
39 14.25
40 14.25
41 14.25
42 14.25
43 14.25
44 14.25
45 14.25
46 14.25
47 14.25
48 14.25
49 14.25
50 14.25
51 14.25
52 14.25
53 14.25
54 14.25
55 14.25
56 14.25
57 14.25
58 14.25
59 14.25
60 14.25
61 14.25
62 14.25
63 14.25
64 14.25
65 14.25
66 14.25
67 14.25
68 14.25
69 14.25
70 14.25
71 14.25
72 14.25
73 14.25
74 14.25
75 14.25
76 14.25
77 14.25
78 14.25
79 14.25
80 14.25
81 14.25
82 14.25
83 14.25
84 14.25
85 14.25
 86 14.25
87 14.25
88 14.25
89 14.25
90 14.25
91 14.25
92 14.25
93 14.25
94 14.25
95 14.25
96 14.25
97 14.25
98 14.25
99 14.25
100 14.25
 Return Home

$ 11.75 $ 9.25 $ 6.75 $ 4.25

$ - $ - $ - $ - Frequency of profit by card numbers b
20 25 30 35 15 cards 20 cards
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 Max 14.25 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 Min 14.25 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 BINS Freq. Freq.
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0

minimum to maximum qtys

11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0

Equal Profit Bins from

11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 4.25 0 0
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 Statistical results to show best c
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 15 cards 20 cards
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 mean $ 14.25 $ 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 StDev $ - $ -
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 µ+s $ 14.25 $ 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 µ-s $ 14.25 $ 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 95% + $ 14.25 $ 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25 95% - $ 14.25 $ 11.75
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
11.75 9.25 6.75 4.25
 y of profit by card numbers by profit bins
25 cards 30 cards 35 cards
9.25 6.75 4.25
100
Magazine Sales Pro
9.25 6.75 4.25

Frequency
90
Freq. Freq. Freq.
80
0 0 0
0 0 0 70
0 0 0 60
0 0 0 50
0 0 0 40
0 0 0 30
0 0 0 20
0 0 0 10
0 0 100 0
0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2
0 0 0 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $4
0 0 0 Weekly Profit

atistical results to show best choice Graphic results of 100 Trials

25 cards 30 cards 35 cards
$ 9.25 $ 6.75 $ 4.25
$ - $ - $ -
$ 9.25 $ 6.75 $ 4.25
$ 9.25 $ 6.75 $ 4.25
$ 9.25 $ 6.75 $ 4.25
$ 9.25 $ 6.75 $ 4.25
 Magazine Sales Profits

15 cards
20 Cards
25 cards
30 cards
35 cards

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Weekly Profit

Graphic results of 100 Trials