Scribd
Upload
20 views

COSM

Uploaded by

saitambarapu2316
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
20 views

COSM

Uploaded by

saitambarapu2316
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 10

Introduction to

Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' Theorem is a fundamental concept in probability and
statistics that provides a way to update the probability of a
hypothesis as new evidence becomes available. This powerful tool
has applications across a wide range of fields, from medical
diagnostics to machine learning.

preencoded.png
Understanding Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability Bayes' Theorem Application

Conditional probability is the Bayes' Theorem uses conditional Conditional probabilities are crucial
likelihood of an event occurring probabilities to update the for making informed decisions and
given that another event has already probability of a hypothesis as new predictions in a wide range of fields.
occurred. evidence is observed.

preencoded.png
Statement and Proof
1 Axioms
Bayes' Theorem is derived from the fundamental
axioms of probability theory.

2 Derivation
The theorem can be rigorously proved by
manipulating the definitions of conditional and joint
probabilities.

3 Significance
The theorem provides a powerful way to update beliefs
in light of new evidence.

preencoded.png
Bayes' Theorem Formula
and Explanation
Formula Explanation
Bayes' Theorem states that The formula allows us to
P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / calculate the probability of a
P(B). hypothesis (A) given some
evidence (B).

Interpretation Applications
The theorem helps us reason Bayes' Theorem has a wide
about the likelihood of range of applications in
causes given observed fields like medicine, machine
effects. learning, and economics.

preencoded.png
Application of Bayes' Theorem
in Real-World Scenarios

Medical Diagnostics Spam Filtering


Bayes' Theorem is used to calculate Bayes' Theorem helps classify emails
the probability of a disease given test as spam or not based on message
results. content.

Financial Forecasting Machine Learning


Bayesian methods are used to Bayesian inference is a powerful tool
predict stock prices and market for training and updating machine
trends. learning models.

preencoded.png
Bayesian Inference and
Decision Making
Prior Beliefs
Bayesian inference starts with an initial set of beliefs or
probabilities.

New Evidence
As new data becomes available, Bayes' Theorem is used to
update the probabilities.

Posterior Beliefs
The updated probabilities inform decision making and
lead to revised beliefs.

preencoded.png
Advantages and Limitations of Bayes' Theorem
Advantages Limitations

• Allows for updating beliefs as new evidence • Requires accurate prior probabilities, which can
becomes available be difficult to obtain

• Provides a principled way to reason about uncertainty • Computationally intensive for complex problems

• Has a wide range of applications in various fields • Assumes independence between events, which
may not always hold

preencoded.png
Comparing Bayes'
Theorem to Classical
Statistics
1 Classical Statistics 2 Bayesian Approach
Relies on frequentist Focuses on updating
probabilities and probabilities based on new
hypothesis testing. evidence.

3 Key Difference 4 Applications


Bayesian methods Both approaches have
incorporate prior beliefs, their strengths and are
while classical statistics do used in different domains.
not.

preencoded.png
Conclusion and Key
Takeaways
Powerful Tool Updating Beliefs
Bayes' Theorem is a The theorem provides a
fundamental concept with a systematic way to update
wide range of applications. probabilities as new evidence
becomes available.

Practical Implications Continuous Learning


Bayes' Theorem has Understanding Bayes'
important implications for Theorem is an essential part
decision-making in fields like of becoming a more
medicine, finance, and informed and rational
machine learning. decision-maker.
preencoded.png
THANK YOU

preencoded.png

You might also like