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PLANETARY CONFIGURATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

N.Venkatanathan1, N. Rajeswara Rao1, K. K. Sharma1, and P.PeriaKalli1

1
Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras, Guindy Campus, A.C.College Buildings,
Chennai – 600 025, India.

Abstract The hazards of earthquakes are avoidable if prediction can be made early, which would
enable their mitigation, reduce damage to life and property drastically and facilitate precautionary
measures by government and NGOs. This attempt aims at establishing planetary configurations as a
definitive means of earthquake prediction. Also this study aims to establish the occurrence of
earthquake precursors like fore shocks and change in ground water level with respect to planetary
configurations. When two or more than two planets, Sun and Moon are aligned more or less in line (0o
or 180o) with the Earth, then the Earth would be caught in the middle of a huge gravity struggle
between the Sun and the planets. The gravitational stresses would change the speed of the Earth in
its orbit. When the speed of rotation of the earth changes the tectonic plate motion also gets affected.
The total angular momentum of planets involving in earthquake triggering mechanism can be
calculated and the total force acting at the epicenter in the opposite direction to the rotation of the
earth can also be determined. The planetary forces acting in the opposite direction to the rotation of
earth act as a triggering mechanism for the accumulated stress at faults and plate boundaries, to be
released abruptly. This does not, however, mean that earthquakes will occur at all edges of the plate
boundaries. In order to trigger an earthquake in one particular place, two conditions should be
satisfied. They are a) distance of epicenter from the planet position and b) Direction of force acting at
the possible epicenter. From the analysis of “Significant earthquakes” over past 100 years, it is
inferred that the latitude, longitude and magnitude of the tremor is related to the distance from the
planet and direction of planetary forces acting at any particular point. By correlating the planetary
positions and their forces with geology of that area, earthquakes can be predicted with fair accuracy
with regard to latitude, longitude and magnitude at least a month before.

INTRODUCTION

Earthquakes:

The earth’s crust is made up of several pieces, called plates. These plates are moved around
by the motion of a deeper part of the earth that lies underneath the crust. (Watson, 1999). The plates
are always bumping into each other, pulling away from each other (or) past each other. Earthquakes
usually occur along the edges of these plates, but can also occur far from the edges of plates, along
faults. Faults are cracks in the earth where sections of a plate are moving in different directions.

Devastation due to earthquakes:

Earthquakes really pose little direct danger to a person. But due to earthquakes there are
some effects like ground shaking, ground displacement, liquefaction, flooding (tsunami), and fire
which are hazardous to human beings (Walker, 1982).For example, the most destructive earthquake
occurred in Shansi, China, on January 23, 1556 (magnitude ~8 on the Richter Scale), kill 830,000
people. The Ganshu earthquake in China on December 16, 1920 (magnitude 8.6), killed 200,000
people, in which destruction was mainly due to landslides. On September 1, 1923, disaster struck
Kwanto, Japan in the form of an earthquake (magnitude 7.9) that killed 143,000 people; the
destruction was mainly due to fire, famously known as “Great Tokyo fire”. In Messina, Italy on
December 28, 1908, about 100,000 people, lost their lives, mostly due to flooding by giant sea waves
(tsunamis) that were generated by an earthquake of magnitude 7.2.(Abe.K,1988).
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Significance of Earthquake Prediction:

The hazards mentioned above are avoidable if prediction can be made early, which would
enable mitigation of the natural hazard, reduce damage to life and property drastically and facilitate
precautionary measures by government and NGOs.

History of Earthquake Prediction:

People across the world have attempted to predict tremors, by observing animal behaviour
patterns or studying the changing colour of water in natural springs. Chinese and Japanese use
warning signs like a) Fore shocks, b) Strain in rocks, c) Ground water levels, d) Chemical changes in
ground water, e) Radon gas in ground water, f) Thermal anomaly, g) Ground tilting, and h) P – wave
velocity.(Ranjit, 2001).
One well-known successful prediction was for Haicheng earthquake, (China) of 1975 (M 7.3).
Evacuation warning was issued the day before. In the preceding months changes in land elevation
and ground water levels, widespread reports of peculiar animal behaviour, and many fore shocks had
led to a lower level warning. An increase in fore shock activity triggered the evacuation warning
(Ludwin, 1990).
In spite of innumerable warning signs at our disposal, most earthquakes unfortunately do not
have such obvious precursors. For example, there was no warning of the 1976 Tang Shan
earthquake (magnitude 7.6), which caused an estimated 250,000 fatalities. Some times these early
warning signs may even be misleading. For example, from August 12 – 19, 2003, in and around the
Jamnagar taluk in Gujarat some minor tremors of magnitude 3.0 were recorded. The Gujarat
government geared itself to face another major disaster, but fortunately nothing happened.
If a fault segment is known to have broken in a past major earthquake, recurrence time and
probable magnitude can be estimated based on fault segment size, rupture history, and strain
accumulation. This forecasting technique can only be used for well-understood faults, such as the San
Andreas. No such forecasts can be made for poorly-understood faults, such as those that caused the
1994 Northridge, California and 1995 Kobe, Japan quakes. Along the San Andreas fault, the segment
considered most likely to rupture is near Parkfield, California. Using a set of assumptions about fault
mechanics and the rate of stress accumulation, the United States Geological Survey made a more
precise Parkfield prediction - of a M 6.0 earthquake between 1988 and 1992. Though that prediction
was not fulfilled, a M 6.0 earthquake is still expected at Parkfield. (Ludwin, 1990).

Significance of Planetary Position in Earthquake Prediction:

Though there have been several attempts at Earthquake prediction from different
perspectives, this attempt aims at establishing planetary configurations as a definitive means of
earthquake prediction with fair accuracy with regard to latitude, longitude and magnitude.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

Methodology:

If two or more than two planets, Sun and Moon are aligned more or less in line (0o or 180o)
with the Earth, then the Earth would be caught in the middle of a huge gravity struggle between the
Sun and the planets. The gravitational stresses would change the speed of the Earth in its orbit, and
shift the centre of the solar system.(Karl,1990). When the speed of rotation of the earth changes, the
tectonic plate motion is also affected, just as people collide with each other when the bus driver
suddenly applies the brake. So planetary forces act as a triggering mechanism for the accumulated
stress to be released abruptly.
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Force of attraction by planets, Sun and Moon:

Fp1 = GMm/r2; Fp2= GMm/r2;

Total Force = Fp1 + Fp2 N; L = GMm / v kgm2s-1
Where, L is angular momentum of planets, Moon and Sun.
With this total angular momentum, the total force acts at the epicenter in the opposite direction
to the rotation of the earth. At the epicenter, the speed of rotation of earth can be calculated with help
of software available.
This does not, however, mean that earthquakes will occur at all edges of the plate boundaries.
In order to trigger an earthquake in one particular place two conditions should be satisfied. They are
a) distance and b) direction of force acting at the possible epicenter.

Distance:

When the planets (up to Saturn), Sun and Moon pull the Earth, two bulges are created along
the circumference of the earth. If these bulges are imagined as crests of the sine wave, there would
then be two waves along the circumference of the earth (~40,072 km), whose wave length (λ) =
20,036 km, which is approximately equal to half of the circumference of the earth. The planetary
positions with regard to the Earth are decided by their shortest distance to a particular point on its
surface, which is normally measured as Right Ascension (Longitude) and Declination (Latitude). The
peak of the sine wave represents the position of the planets (fig 1). The possible epicenters would
then be at 1252.25 km (0.25λ/4), 2504.5 km (0.5λ/4), 3756.75 km (0.75λ/4), 5009 km (λ/4), 6261.25
km (1.25λ/4), 7513.5 km (1.5λ/4), and 8765.75 km (1.75λ/4) from the projected planet position on the
earth (Table: 1).

Fig 1
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Distances and Energy at respective distances:

Table 1
Wave length K.E P.E Distance (km)

λ/4 0 1 0

0.125 λ/4 1/8 7/8 626.125

0.25 λ/4 1/4 3/4 1252.25

0.375 λ/4 3/8 5/8 1878.375

0.5 λ/4 1/2 1/2 2504.5

0.625 λ/4 5/8 3/8 3130.625

0.75 λ/4 3/4 1/4 3756.75

0.875 λ/4 7/8 1/8 4382.875

λ/2 1 0 5009

1.125 λ/4 1/8 7/8 5635.125

1.250 λ/4 1/4 3/4 6261.25

1.375 λ/4 3/8 5/8 6887.375

1.5 λ/4 1/2 1/2 7513.5

Direction of force:

Fault lines (or) plate boundaries should be at a particular angle, so that the forces can
effectively trigger the earthquake. 1) For the convergent plates, the forces should act in order to give
more convergence for one plate, so as to enough stress create to trigger the earthquake. 2) For the
divergent plates, the forces should act so that they interfere the divergence of one plate that would
create sudden drop of support and lead to a collapse. 3) In the case of Normal and reverse faults the
direction of forces should act perpendicular to the fault line; for slip and strike faults, the direction of
forces should act and parallel to the fault line.

Areas selected and criteria used for selection:

For preliminary studies, the following past earthquakes were selected:

a) Haicheng, China earthquake of 1975 (M – 7.3), b) Tang Shan, China earthquake of 1976 (M –
7.6), c) Bhuj, India earthquake of 2001 (M – 7.7) and d) Mild tremors in Jamnagar, India of
2003. (Ludwin, 1990).
The most successfully predicted earthquake so far is Haicheng, China earthquake using warning
signs; the Tang Shan earthquake, however, occurred without warning signs. So to what extent the
planetary positions were different in both cases (fig 2a & 2b) and their relation to early signs or
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otherwise was analysed. Similarly, how the planetary position at the time of Bhuj earthquake (which
had some early warning signs) differed from the planetary positions related to mild tremors at
Jamnagar were analysed.
From the analysis, it was observed that for Haicheng earthquake, Mars and Saturn both of
them outer orbit planets were more or less in straight line, while for Tang Shan earthquake, Moon,
Mercury and Venus inner orbit planets and nearer to the earth were more or less in straight line, The
inner orbit planets are having relative higher angular velocity in comparison with outer orbit planets.
The alignment of Mercury, Venus and Moon in a more or less straight line was comparatively for a
short duration thereby triggering the Tang Shan earthquake. Since Mars and Saturn are outer orbit
planets and relatively at farther distance from earth, the Haicheng earthquake was triggered with
sufficient warning signs.

A comparison between the Bhuj and Jamnagar quakes revealed some interesting
observations. Although the planetary configuration in both instances was favourable for triggering
earthquakes, and the distances from the projected planetary positions were the same ( 5635.125 km
≡ 1.125λ/4), the magnitude of Bhuj earthquake was relatively much higher (7.7). This is attributable to
the action of planetary forces in north easterly direction, perpendicular to the fault line (Fig 3a). For the
Jamnagar tremors, however, the action of planetary forces was towards west, and not normal to the
fault line at that place (Fig 3b), resulting in relatively less magnitude (~3).

Haicheng Tang Shan Bhuj Jamnagar

Planets Sun, Venus &

Mars & Saturn Mercury & Venus Mars & Saturn
Involved Jupiter

1.25 λ/4 1.5 λ/4 0.625 λ/4

Distance No coincidence
6261.25 km 7513.5 km 3130.625 km

K.E. – 5/8
Energy K.E – ¼ ; P.E – ¾ K.E – ½ ; P.E – ½ -
P.E. – 3/8

Total Force 1.5488 x 1023 N 3.4509 x 1028 N 1.38 x 1023 N -

Total Angular 23.78 x 1036

23.8 x 1036 kgm2s-1 2.7 x 1040 kgm2s-1 -
Momentum kgm2s-1

EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS:

Using the aforesaid calculations for past events, attempts at prediction were undertaken and
favourable dates for possible earthquake occurrences identified, i.e. those days when the planetary
configuration would be in a straight line. Among the several dates available, January 20 and 22, 2004
were selected.

Planets in straight line and their positions on 20 January, 2004:

Planets aligned Right Ascension Declination

Moon 276.11835o -27.05549o
Mercury 276.12115o -22.31291o
Saturn 098.91447o 22.55384o
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These positions marked in a map and the distances from the planetary positions were
calculated. The possible places where the earthquake could be triggered by the planets were
identified by analyzing the direction of the planetary forces acting. They were:
1) Indonesia, 2) Solomon Islands, 3) Loyalty Islands, 4) Italy, 5) Kodak Islands and Aleutian
Islands., Alaska, 6) California, USA, 7) Costa Rica, and 8) Colombia.

Whether earthquakes occurred in the predicted areas on the expected dates with the USGS, 2004
website. It was observed that except Indonesia and Solomon Islands, quakes had occurred in all
areas on January 20, 2004. California had experienced 9 tremors with a maximum magnitude of 3.2,
while Alaska has experienced 2 tremors, the maximum magnitude being 5.0.

Planets in straight line and their positions on 22 January, 2004:

Planets aligned Right Ascension Declination

Moon 304.28840o -24.65213o
Sun 303.37110o -19.90497o
Jupiter 169.84027o 05.79012o
Venus 340.81702o -09.60768o
Mercury 278.29801o -22.48068o
Saturn 098.77836o 22.56544o

These positions marked in a map and the distances from the planetary positions were calculated.
The possible places where the earthquake could be triggered by the planets were identified by
analyzing the direction of the planetary forces acting. They were:
a) Sulwesi, Flores, Indonesia, b) Mindanao, Philippines, c) Turkey, d) Cyprus, e) Loyalty Islands,
f) Fiji Region and g) Chile – Peru border.
Whether earthquakes occurred in the predicted areas on the expected dates with the USGS, 2004
website. It was observed that except Turkey, Cuprus and Loyalty Islands, quakes had occurred in all
areas on January 22, 2004. Indonesia had experienced 3 tremors with a maximum magnitude of 5.1.

CONCLUSION:

The Earth is often caught in a huge gravitational web due to the alignment of major planets
and other celestial bodies such as Moon and Sun. The gravitational stresses thereby created
indirectly lead to variations in tectonic plate motion that are capable of acting as a triggering
mechanism for an earthquake. It is inferred that the magnitude of the tremor is related to the direction
of planetary forces acting at any particular point.
By correlating the planetary positions and geology of that area, earthquakes can be predicted
with fair accuracy with regard to latitude, longitude and magnitude.

Reference:

Abe. K, 1988, Earthquakes in China and California, v. 27, p. 72 – 92.

Karl S., 1990Planetary Alignment - Part 2,Great Moments in Science, Kruszelnicki Pty Ltd.
Ludwin.R, 1990 Earthquake Research at Parkfield, California, for 1993 and Beyond U.S. Geological
Survey Circular 1116, 14 p.
Ranjit. B, 2001, The Quake Manual, Out look Magazine, v. XLI, No: 5, p 26 and 27.
Watson. J. M, 1999, Plate Tectonics, Environmental Volunteers, v. 10, p. 1 – 5.
Walker. N, 1982, Earthquake Hazards.
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Fig 2(a): Haicheng Earthquake 1975

Fig 2(b) Tang Shan Earthquake 1976

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Fig 3(a) Bhuj Earthquake 2001

Fig 3(b) Jamnagar Mild Tremors 2003

Legend

p- Epicenter of corresponding earthquakes; • - Planetary Position