CHAPTER SEVEN

POPULATION OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN

 Introduction

 Population Data: Uses and Sources

Population Dynamics: Fertility, Mortality and Migration
Population Distribution and Composition
Sociocultural Aspects of Ethiopian Population: Education,
Health and Languages
Settlement Types and Patterns
 Population Data: Uses and Sources
Population data are vital for effective socioeconomic development planning
and administration.
Such data are needed to plan for the provision of infrastructures such as
schools, hospitals, roads, water and sewerage facilities, housing,
establishing voting district boundaries, estimating future tax revenue and
designing public programs.
Hence, demographic data are crucial to administrators, businessmen,
researchers, academicians and planners.
as well as a beneficiary of any planned socio-economic development
undertaken. There are three conventional sources of obtaining population
data namely census, sample survey and vital registration.
 Census
• A census could be defined as the total process of collecting, compiling and
publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time
(s) to all persons in a defined territory. Its major characteristics include:

Universality:

inclusion of all persons in a given area during the count,

Periodicity:

census undertaking at regular time intervals with reference to a defined point of time
usually 10 years and 5 years,

Simultaneity:

undertaking census in a very limited time duration called the census day/night,
 Cont..
• Government sponsorship being an expensive endeavour, and
publication. There are two procedures for collecting census data:
dejure and defacto approaches

• Dejure approach: it involves counting people according to their usual

place of residence (where he/she lives most of the time). This system
gives a picture of the total permanent population of an area thereby
making it suitable for planning and administrative purposes.

• Defacto approach: Under this approach each individual is recorded at

the place where he/she was found at the time of the census. The
defacto enumeration may give enlarged totals to holiday resorts.
 B.Sample Survey
• This is a method in which a defined population/sample/ is selected with the view
that information acquired would represent the entire population. This method is
advantageous over census as costs can be greatly reduced; and it is simple to
administer and taken much faster.

• Sampling may also be used with censuses in order to obtain more detailed
information to supplement census data. However, sample surveys have the
inherent weaknesses related to sampling errors and inadequate coverage.
• Data from most censuses and sample surveys include

• geographic location, age, sex,

• marital status, citizenship, and place of birth,

• relationship to the head of household,

 Cont..
religion, educational characteristics,
occupation, fertility,

income, language,

 ethnic characteristics, disabilities and migration.

C.Vital Registration
• Vital registration is a system of continuous, permanent, compulsory and legal
recording of the occurrence and the characteristics of vital events like births,
deaths, marriages, divorces, and adoptions.
 Population Dynamics:
Fertility, Mortality and Migration
Demographic Measurements

• In Ethiopia, fert0ility and mortality are the two principal determinants of

population growth as international migration is insignificant. Some of the
basic demographic measurements include: 1. Crude Birth Rate refers to the
number of live births per 1000 population

• General Fertility Rate refers to the total number of live births per women
of reproductive age

• GFR is a relatively specific measure of fertility as it specifically relates

births to women in the reproductive age.
 Total Fertility Rate (T.F.R.)
 refers to the average number of children that a woman would have at the end of her reproductive period if
the current age specific fertility rate remains unchanged.

 Where, Bi = Total live births in age group i,

 Wi =Total number of women in age group

i =age group i.e.

1= 15-19,

2=20-24

3=25-29,

4 = 30-34,

5 = 35-39,

6=40-44,

7 = 45-49)
 cont..
Crude Death Rate
refers to the number of deaths per one thousand population in a year
Infant Mortality rate
 refers to the total number of deaths of infants per one thousand live Birth
Infant mortality
draws special attention because of its large size and the heavy impact it
has on the crude death rate.
The 2016 demographic and health survey result showed that infant
mortality in Ethiopia has decreased from 97 deaths per 1,000 live births in
2000 to 48 in 2016.
 Cont..
Maternal Mortality Rate:

• refers to death of mothers in connection from pregnancy and birth complications

per hundred thousand live birth.

Life Expectancy at birth:

• refers to the average number of years that a newly born baby is expected to live. It
is used as a summary measure of the mortality experience of the whole population.

Natural Rate of Increase:

• is the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate expressed in
percentage.

• NRI= (C.B.R. - C.D.R.)

 Cont..
Levels and trends in Fertility and Mortality rates in Ethiopia
Birth and death rates show significant spatiotemporal variation. Clear differences in birth and
death rates are emerging between rural and urban areas of Ethiopia.

Urban areas have lower birth and death rates compared to rural areas implying that living and
health conditions are better and, perhaps, family planning programme is gaining ground.
Women in rural areas have an average of 5.2 children, compared to 2.3 children among
women in urban areas.

Looking at TFR by region, in 2016 fertility was the lowest in Addis Ababa (1.8 children per
woman) followed by Dire Dawa (3.1), Gambella (3.5), and Amhara (3.7).

while regions that have TFR rates more than the national average are Somali (7.2), Afar (5.5),
Oromia (5.4), and Tigray.

Recently, fertility is showing a declining trend. Total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 7.52 in
1984 to 6.74 in 1994, and currently, women in Ethiopia have an average of 4.6 children.
 Cont..
Similarly, mortality rates are also showing a declining trend. Before 2000, almost
all regional states recorded more than 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births.

But by 2011 infant mortality in all regions was lower than 100, except for
Benishangul Gumuz. Mortality rates also show considerable variation by reigns.

 In 2016, IMR at the country level was 54 where it was 48 in urban areas and 62
in rural Ethiopia.

Accordingly, lower than national average infant mortality rate was recorded in
Addis Ababa followed by Somali and Gambella; while higher IMR was recorded
in Benishangul, followed by SNNPR and Tigray.
Cont..
 Cont…
Obvious difference between developed and developing countries in the

demographic rates. All demographic rates are high and life expectancies are low

for developing countries.

Even among the five neighbouring countries as part of the developing world,

Ethiopia's infant mortality rate is higher than Kenya, Eritrea and Djibouti, giving

Ethiopia the lowest life expectancy among the counties.

 It is wise to note that Ethiopia’s crude birth rate, crude death rate, and infant

mortality rates are about 5.5, 4.7 and 27.5 times greater than the countries that

have the lowest crude birth rate, crude death rate and infant mortality rates in the

world respectively.
As opposed to declining death rates, birth rates have remained high due to
Little family planning practices and lack of population education;

Lower status of women

Early marriage, particularly of females;

Parents consideration of children as assets, though little obliged for

their education, health;

The relatively high infant and child mortality rates, that trigger
couples to have more births to compensate for the loses
Some of the consequences of this rapid population growth under conditions of slowly
growing economy include:
low per capita GNP

increased unemployment and under -employment

mounting social ills such as destitution, begging, theft, prostitution

continuous inflation that erodes purchasing power of the currency

shortage of cultivated land and food shortages

overcrowding of infrastructural and social facilities; housing problems and increase in urban
slums and squatter settlements

Environmental problems such as deforestation, soil erosion, loss of biodiversity and pollution.
 Migration in Ethiopia and the Horn
• Migration is an old and inevitable phenomenon, although human
mobility has accelerated these days as a result of economic and
technological progress especially in the fields of communication and
transportation.

• It is considered as a form of geographic mobility involving a

permanent or semi-permanent change of residence between clearly
defined geographic units.
 Some of the multifaceted implications of migration are indicated hereunder:
Migration yields an increased level of urbanization;

It enhances rural-urban linkages in creating an integrated economy

It influences spatial population distribution

Migration negatively influences human fertility and mortality patterns and levels;

And migration negatively influences affects age and sex composition of the population.

It is a means of achieving economic efficiency.

It can also be a cause and consequence of inequality and unequal development

It is cause and consequence of diversity; and a mechanism of spreading cultures

It is a necessary condition for the creation and strengthening of a sense of national unity

It creates a creative and open society to new ideas than a homogenous group of people.
 A.Internal Migration in Ethiopia
Ethiopia is an ancient original abode of human migration before the various parts of the
world are occupied.

 In Ethiopia, both short and long migratory movements have been going on for millennia
in time and space influenced by demographic, environmental, socio-economic and
political factors.

Population movement in Ethiopia accelerated in the early 20th with the rise in urban
centers as well as the Italian occupation.

However, voluntary and individual rural out migration during the Derg Regime was low
for the following reasons.
 The 1976/77 ‘land to the tiller’ granted land to the rural landless farmers, which in turn reduced
their motivation for out migration.
 Cont..
Establishment of urban dwellers association and rural peasant associations that
demanded a person to be either a member of an urban kebele that did not
encourage rural-urban or urban-rural migration.
The 1975 urban land nationalization that dispossessed landlords’ rights to own
more than one house that further led to a chronic shortage of urban housing which
in turn discouraged migration.
The high level of urban unemployment and underemployment coupled with
declining real incomes and growing poverty was a disincentive for potential
migrants.
The Derge was also taking away whoever is scrounging around in the city as
soldiers to the warfront that kept the youth from moving to the urban areas.
 B.International migration
International migration in Ethiopia accelerated after the 1974 revolution where many
refugees were attempting to escape political conflict, persecution and famine.

Attempt of political centralization and oppression; the independence struggle of Eritrea

from 1961-1991 that led to violent clashes and period of Red Terror b/n 1976-79
generated massive emigration from Ethiopia.

Today, Ethiopia could be considered as one of the countries that has a large number of
emigrants overseas.

Ethiopia’s diaspora, estimated to be about four million, is also considered one of the
largest of all African countries.

Large numbers of Ethiopian migrants are found in the Middle East, USA, Canada, Europe
and African countries such as Sudan, Kenya, South Africa and Botswana.
 The causes of cross-border migration include:
Lack of employment and livelihood opportunities, and negative attitudes attached with low
paying and informal job and poor work ethics amongst the youth.

Rural underemployment and lack of resources

Unfavorable political context and insecurity, civil war and political turmoil,

Ethiopia’s location in the fragile region of the Horn of Africa and its long boundary that
extends over 5,328 km which makes border management difficult

Existence of large number of local brokers with networks extending to countries of

destination;

Misinformation and false promises by brokers/traffickers; success stories of pioneering

migrants; family and peer pressure

Emergence of ‘culture of migration’ and migration networks

 Cont..
• Demand-side factors of migration (shortage of labour in low-paying, informal, and
perilous jobs, such as domestic work, construction, agriculture in destination
countries) .

Age and Sex Structure of Ethiopian Population

• Age Structure refers to the distribution of population by age groups. The most
used age groups are five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 60-64, 65 and above)
and broad age groups. broad age groups in the three consecutive censuses (1984, 1994 and 2007).
Census Broad Age Groups Dependency ratio
year Youth dependency Old age Total
dependency dependency

O – 14 15 – 64 65 +
1984 49.8 50.2 3.4 107.8 16.2 124.0
1994 45.4 51.4 3.2 92.0 10.7 102.7
2007 45.0 51.9 3.2 86.7 6.1 92.8
 Cont..
• Age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65 and above are known as young age,
working age and old age, respectively.

• Our young age population is very large, about half of the population,
while the old age population is very small. Because of the
predominance of young age population, the median age of the
population is about 17 years.

• On the contrary most developed countries have working age

population of about 60 percent or more, and old age population of
about 10 percent or more.
 Cont..
 It is generally accepted that people in the young and old ages are dependent on the
working age population. Age dependency ratio (A.D.R.) can roughly be used to show the
magnitude of dependency. It is expressed as:

Another ratio that can be calculated out of the broad age groups of the population is the
old age index. This index expresses the old age population as the percentage of the
working age population as follows:

Youth dependency ratio and old age index for Ethiopia's population in 2007 were about
93 and 6 respectively. This means that for every 100 persons in the working age there
were about 93 young dependents and 6 old persons of 65+.

In 2015 the total dependency ratio declined to82.1; and youth dependency ratio was 75.8.
Population Primed of Ethiopia, 2017
 Cont…
• In general population pyramids of developing countries like Ethiopia have very broad bases
showing the preponderance of young age population, and become thinner and thinner
upwards as age advances.

• So the percentages of population in upper age groups are very small.

• The age distribution of the population of Ethiopia shows that the country has a youthful
population resulting in heavy youth dependency. Heavy youth dependency has many serious
implications on socioeconomic development, which include:

i. Imposition of heavy burden on the working population

ii. Allocation of most of the household budget to food and other household needs with

little/nothing left for saving; which then affects investment

iii. Diversion of limited resources on social services