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Additive and Multiplicative

ĐÂSĐASA

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thuykhanh1811
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16 views

Additive and Multiplicative

ĐÂSĐASA

Uploaded by

thuykhanh1811
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question 2:

In a time-series decomposition of sales (in millions of units), the following trend has been estimated:
CMAT = 4.7 + 0.37(T)
Quarter Seasonal Index, Time Index, Cycle Index, Actual Sales,
1 1.24 21 1.01 17.2
2 1.01 22 1.04 13.2
3 0.76 23 1.06 10.8 St->SI
4 0.99 24 1.04 14.2 Tt->CF
a. Prepare a forecast (find Y^-expected Y) for each quarter of the coming year using multiplicative
decomposition model.
b. Prepare a forecast for each quarter of the coming year using additive decomposition model.
c. Use the actual sales along with your forecasts to calculate the root-mean-squared error (RMSE)
for the forecast period.
Et -> CMAT

Quarter Seasonal Index, Time Index, Cycle Index, CMAT = 4.7 + 0.37(T) Forecast-Y^ = Forecast =
1 1.24 21 1.01 12.47 15.62 14.72
2 1.01 22 1.04 12.84 13.49 14.89
3 0.76 23 1.06 13.21 10.64 15.03
4 0.99 24 1.04 13.58 13.98 15.61

Forecast = CMAT*CF*SI, Actual Sales, (A-F)^2 MSE RMSE


15.62 17.2 2.50 0.6649 0.8154
13.49 13.2 0.08
10.64 10.8 0.02
13.98 14.2 0.05

Forecast = CMAT+CF+SI, Actual Sales, (A-F)^2 MSE RMSE


14.72 17.2 6.15 7.2219 2.6874
14.89 13.2 2.86
15.03 10.8 17.89
15.61 14.2 1.99

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