Tutorial 5 – Questions and solutions

Section A

Question 1

In a batch of 15 jars of instant coffee, 5 have been under filled. Suppose 6 of these jars are
selected without replacement. If more than 1 of these selected jars are under filled, the
whole batch is sent back for refill. What is the probability of the batch being sent back for
refill?

Q1 solution:

𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙) = 𝑃(1 𝑜𝑟 2 𝑜𝑟 3 𝑜𝑟 4 𝑜𝑟 5 𝑗𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑)

= 1 − 𝑃(0 𝑜𝑟 1 𝑗𝑎𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑)

= 1 − 𝑃(0 𝑗𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑) − 𝑃(1 𝑗𝑎𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑)

5 10 5 10
( )( ) ( )( )
=1− 0 6 − 1 5
15 15
( ) ( )
6 6

= 0.70629 …

≈ 0.71

Question 2

An anonymous caller told the police that he saw a hit and run incident and had briefly seen
the number plate of the car. He knew that the number plate started with two letters – a B
and an E – but could not remember the order. After the letters were four digits – 3, 4, 8 and
9 – but again he could not remember the order. The four numbers were followed by the
letter V. How many number plates will the police have to check to be sure of including the
car involved in the hit and run incident?
Q2 solution:
(2 × 1) × (4 × 3 × 2 × 1) × (1) = 48
Questions 3 to 6 are based on the following information:
A company has 5 products in it’s Basics range, 5 products in it’s Standard range and 4
products in it’s Premium range. The company wishes to advertise in a local newspaper, but
due to space constraints, it can only advertise 6 products.

Question 3
How many possible 6-prouct groupings/selections are possible?
Q3 solution:
14
( ) = 3003
6

Question 4
What is the probability that an advert of 6 randomly selected products contains an equal
number of products from each of the ranges?
Q4 solution:
𝑃(2 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚)
5 5 4
( )( )( )
= 2 2 2
14
( )
6
= 0.199800 …
≈ 0.2

Question 5
What is the probability that an advert of 6 randomly selected products contains the whole
Basics range and one item from the Standard range?
Q5 solution:
𝑃(5 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑)
5 5
( )( )
= 5 1
14
( )
6
= 0.001665 …
= 0.002
Question 6
What is the probability that an advert of 6 randomly selected products contains the whole
Basics range?
Q6 solution:
𝑃(5 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠)
= 𝑃(5 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 )
+ 𝑃(5 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚)
5 5 5 4
( )( ) ( )( )
= 5 1 + 5 1
14 14
( ) ( )
6 6
= 0.0029970 …
≈ 0.003

Section B
Let K denote the event that a person knows how to knit and let N denote the event that a
person does not know how to do needle-work.

Question 7
Describe in words the event that is represented by the shaded area on the diagram below.

Q7 Solution:

A person does not know how to knit.

̅
This is 𝐾

Question 8
Describe in words the event that is represented by the shaded area on the diagram below.

Q8 Solution:

A person does not know how to knit but does know how to do needle-work.

̅∩𝑁
This is 𝐾 ̅
Question 9
Describe in words the event that is represented by the shaded area on the diagram below.

Q9 solution:

A person does not know how to knit or do needle-work.

̅
This is 𝑁 ∩ 𝐾

Section C

Question 10

Let A and B be events defined on the same sample space. Identify which of the statements
below are true and which are false.

a) If A and B are mutually exclusive then they are independent. False

b) If A and B are independent then they are not mutually exclusive. True
c) If A and B are independent, then the following is definitely true: 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 False

Questions 11 and 12 are based on the following information:

Suppose A and B are mutually exclusive events defined on the same sample space such that
𝑃(𝐴)=0.37 and 𝑃(𝐵)=𝑐.

Question 11
What is the maximum value of 𝑐?
Q11 solution:
Max value of c = 1 – 0.37 = 0.63

Question 12
What is 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)?
Q11 Solution:
A and B are mutually exclusive so 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = { } . So, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

Questions 13 and 14 are based on the following information:

Suppose A and B are two events defined on the same sample space such that
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.8 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑝
where 0<p<1.

Question 13
What is the value of p if A and B are mutually exclusive?
Q13 solution:

0.8 0.4 p 0

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Rearrange:
p = 0.4

Question 14
What is the value of p if A and B are independent?
Q14 solution:

0.8 0.4 p 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = 0.4 𝑝

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Rearrange:
0.8 = 0.4 + 𝑝(1 − 0.4)
0.4 = 0.6 𝑝
0.4
𝑝= = 0.666 … ≈ 0.67
0.6

Section D

Questions 15, 16 and 17 are based on the following information:

Ms Pitts and Mr Oduse are statistics lecturers. Ms Pitts spends 62% of her day in the stats
department. Mr Oduse spends 57% of his day in the stats department. Forty-two (42)
percent of the time Ms Pitts and Mr Oduse can both be found in the stats department.

Q15, Q16 and Q17 solution:

Define
𝐴 = 𝑀𝑠 𝑃𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐵 = 𝑀𝑟 𝑂𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.62, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.57, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.42

Question 15
What is the probability that only one of these lecturers will be in the stats department when
you go to have a consultation?
Q15 solution:
P(only Ms Pitts in the stats dept. ) + P(only Mr Oduse in the stats dept. )
= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) + 𝑃( ̅𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Use the Theorem of total probability for
= [ 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ] + [ 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ] each term.

= [0.62 − 0.42] + [0.57 − 0.42]

= 0.35

Alternatively: From the diagram (shaded area) 0.2 + 0.15 = 0.35

Question 16
What is the probability that neither of the two lecturers will be in the stats department?
Q16 solution:

𝑃( ̅𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ )
De Morgan’s Law
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
= 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 1 − [𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)]
= 1 − [0.62 + 0.57 − 0.42]
= 0.23
Question 17
What is the probability that only Mr Oduse will be in the stats department?
Q17 solution:

𝑃( ̅𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 0.57 − 0.42
= 0.15

Questions 18, 19 and 20 are based on the following information:

A businessman has two secretaries. The probability that the one hired most recently will be
absent on any given day is 0.08 and the probability that the other secretary will be absent
on any given day is 0.07. The probability that both secretaries will be absent on any given
day is 0.01.

Q18, Q19, Q20 solution:

Define
𝐴 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐵 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.08, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.07, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.01

Question 18
What is the probability that at least one of the secretaries is absent on any given day?
Q18 solution:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 0.08 + 0.07 − 0.01
= 0.14

Question 19
What is the probability that at least one of the secretaries comes to work on any given day?
Q19 solution:
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 1 − 0.01
= 0.99

Question 20
What is the probability that only one of the secretaries comes to work on any given day?
Q20 solution:
𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 1 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘)
= 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 1 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡)
= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) + 𝑃( ̅𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= [𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)] + [𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)]
= [0.08 − 0.01] + [0.07 − 0.01]
= 0.13

Section E

Questions 21 and 22 are based on the following information:

In a study about eating habits, 150 people were randomly selected and asked their annual
household income and the number of times that they ate take-away food each month. The
information is summarized in the table below.
Question 21
Suppose you randomly select a person and their annual household income is from R120000
to R240000. What is the probability that they eat take-away food at least 5 times a month?

Q21 solution:
0 to 4 5 to 10 more than 10
Under R120000 27 7 2 36
R120000 to R240000 14 17 46 77
over R240000 15 12 10 37
56 36 58 150

(17 + 46)⁄
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 5 | 𝑅120000 𝑡𝑜 𝑅240000) = 77 = 0.818

Question 22
If a person who eats take-away twice a month is chosen, what is the probability that their
annual household income is at most R240000?

Q22 Solution:
We can only calculate an approximate probability for this. We know the person selected is
in in the “0 to 4” take-away category so we can focus on only the 56 people in that category.
(27 + 14)⁄
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑅240000 | 0 𝑡𝑜 4) = 56 = 0.732

Section F

Question 23
It has been found that 82% of land developers are currently experiencing financial
difficulties. Of those experiencing financial difficulties, 28% say that tax issues are a major
concern. If a land developer is randomly selected, what is the probability that he/she is
currently experiencing financial difficulties and says that tax issues are a major concern?
Q23 solution:
Define
𝐹 = 𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠
𝑇 = 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎 𝑚𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑛
𝑃(𝐹) = 0.82, 𝑃(𝑇|𝐹) = 0.28
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝑇)
Use the multiplication
rule for probabilities.
= 𝑃(𝐹) 𝑃(𝑇 | 𝐹)
= (0.82)(0.28)
= 0.2296

Question 24
An urn contains 5 red balls, 3 white balls and 8 blue balls. You randomly select 3 balls to give
to a friend. What is the probability that the first ball you draw is blue, the second is red and
the third is white?
Q24 solution: Subscripts denote order and letter denotes colour.
𝑃(𝑏1 ∩ 𝑟2 ∩ 𝑤3 )
= 𝑃(𝑏1 ) 𝑃(𝑟2 | 𝑏1 ) 𝑃(𝑤3 | 𝑏1 ∩ 𝑟2 ) (multiplication rule for probabilities)
8 5 3
=( )( )( )
16 15 14
= 0.0357 …
= 0.036

Questions 25 to 29 are based on the following information:

Sleep apnoea is a disorder that interrupts breathing and can awaken sufferers as often as
five times an hour. Sleep apnoea is not easily diagnosed because it usually causes loud
snoring. It is known that 13% of adults have sleep apnoea. Eighty-five (85) percent of adults
that suffer from sleep apnoea snore loudly, whereas only 42% of adults without sleep
apnoea snore loudly.

Solution:
Define
𝐴 = ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑠𝑙𝑒𝑒𝑝 𝑎𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑒𝑎
𝐿 = 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑𝑙𝑦
Given: 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.13, 𝑃(𝐿 | 𝐴) = 0.85, 𝑃(𝐿 | ̅̅̅
𝐴 ) = 0.42

Question 25
What is the probability that an adult does not have sleep apnoea?
Q25 solution:
𝑃(𝐴̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.13 = 0.87

Question 26
What is the probability that an adult snores loudly?
Q26 solution:
𝑃(𝐿)
= 𝑃(𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑𝑙𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑠𝑙𝑒𝑒𝑝 𝑎𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑒𝑎) Theorem of total
+ 𝑃(𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑𝑙𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑙𝑒𝑒𝑝 𝑎𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑒𝑎) probability.

= 𝑃(𝐿 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐿 ∩ 𝐴̅ )
Use the multiplication rule on each term.
= 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐿|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴̅ )𝑃(𝐿|𝐴̅ )
= (0.13)(0.85) + (0.87)(0.42)
= 0.4759

Question 27
What is the probability that an adult doesn’t snore loudly if it is known that he/she has sleep
apnoea?
Q27 solution:
𝑃(𝐿̅|𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐿|𝐴) = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15

Question 28
What is the probability that an adult doesn’t snore loudly if it is known that he/she doesn’t
have sleep apnoea.
Q28 solution:
𝑃(𝐿̅| ̅𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐿| ̅𝐴) = 1 − 0.42 = 0.58

Question 29
Suppose an adult complains to his/her doctor that his/her loud snoring is waking him/her up
often. What is the probability that this person has sleep apnoea?
Q29 solution: This is Bayes’
𝑃(𝐴|𝐿) Theorem.
Definition of conditional probability
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐿)
=
𝑃(𝐿) Numerator: Using the multiplication rule.
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐿|𝐴)
= Denominator: Calculated in Question 26.
0.4759
(0.13)(0.85)
=
0.4759
= 0.23219 …
≈ 0.232

The quiz will include Excel questions for Section 3.4.