Financial Once You Upload An Approved Shares
Financial Once You Upload An Approved Shares
WP MRE 2019.8
†
Corresponding author : [email protected] ; [email protected]
Abstract
Possibility, Necessity and Credibility measures are used in the liter-
ature in order to deal with imprecision. Recently, Yang and Iwamura
[11] introduced a new measure as convex linear combination of possi-
bility and necessity measures and they determined some of its axioms.
In this paper, we introduce characteristics (parameters) of a fuzzy vari-
able based on that measure, namely, Expected value, Variance, Semi-
Variance, Skewness, Kurtosis and Semi-Kurtosis. We determine some
properties of these characteristics and we compute them for trapezoidal
and triangular fuzzy variables. We display their application for the de-
termination of optimal portfolios when assets returns are described by
triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy variables.
1
1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Uncertainty can be viewed as an aspect of randomness or ambiguity in real
life phenomena. Thereby, one needs a measure on fuzzy events (fuzzy mea-
sure) to analyze questions and problems dealing with such uncertainty. After
Zadeh’s work [12] introducing possibility and necessity measures, a vast liter-
ature appeared on fuzzy theory and fuzzy logic based on the aforementioned
measures. Twenty years later, Liu [6] introduced credibility measure as the
arithmetic mean of the two first measures. This measure has been used to
address other questions dealing with uncertainty (see Liu [7], Li et al. [5],
Huang et al. [4], Sadefo et al. [9] and Tassak et al. [10]). More recently,
Yang and Iwamura [11] introduced a new measure, denoted mλ , as a convex
linear combination of possibility and necessity measures (the weight λ of the
possibility measure in the combination is a real parameter in the interval
[0; 1]) and they determined some of its axioms. This new measure general-
ized the three previous ones and has been used in fuzzy chance-constrained
programming (Yang and Kakuzo [11], Dai et al. [1]) as a more generalized
approach compared with credibility constrained programming ones to find
optimal strategies for carbon capture. We used it in our recent conference
paper to determine Expected value and Variance of a fuzzy variable (Dzuche
et al. [2]).
This paper focuses on the recent measure for two major findings that
might be useful. First, the weight λ can be considered as the the decision
maker confidence on the fuzzy event degree of realization such that degree
1 means a complete confidence and degree 0 means no confidence. The
mλ − measure can become either possibility measure,or necessity measure or
credibility measure respectively for the decision marker who is self confident,
unconfident and neutral (the weight is equal to 12 ). It is a comprise of the
two first measures and this finding is similar to the idea of Hurwicz decision
criteria in Microeconomics which is a compromise of maximax and maximin
criteria. On the other hand, due to the fact that the new measure generalizes
the three previous ones in technical point of view, many theoretical results
already solved with one of the three first measures can be generalized with
the new measure. In addition, some specific results will be outlined.
The modest contribution of this paper is to study, by means of mλ , fuzzy
variables characteristics and to implement obtained results for portfolio op-
timization models with fuzzy returns. More specifically, in the continuation
of our recent work (Dzuche et al. [2]), we propose some new axioms of
mλ , and we introduce fuzzy variables characteristics w.r.t. to this measure.
We determine four first moments (expected value, variance, skewness and
kurtosis) and two first semi-moments (semi-variance and semi-kurtosis)of
trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy variables. We establish some properties
of these characteristics and the obtained theoretical results are applied in
2
2 Preliminaries
2 Preliminaries
Throughout this paper, X is a nonempty set, namely, the universal set. A
fuzzy subset A of X is defined by its membership function: µA : X → [0, 1]
such that, to each x ∈ X, is associated µA (x) representing the membership
grade of x to A. A is denoted by {(x, µA (x)), x ∈ X}. If ∀x ∈ A, µA (x) ∈
{0, 1}, then A becomes a crisp subset of X.
3
2 Preliminaries
or equivalently, we have:
1.
λmλ (B) + (1 − λ)mλ (B c ) = λ
or (2)
(1 − λ)mλ (B) + λmλ (B ) = λ
c
4
3 Characteristics of a fuzzy variable with respect to the mλ -measure
When λ = 12 , the Axiom defined by (2) becomes the duality axiom of credi-
bility measure defined by Liu [6] as Cr(B) + Cr(B c ) = 1.
5
3.1 Expected value and Variance
with the condition that, at least one of the two integrals is finite.
and ∫ ∫
+∞ 0
E[ξ] = N ec{ξ ≥ r}dr − P os{ξ ≤ r}]dr. (5)
0 −∞
We have:
6
3.1 Expected value and Variance
7
3.2 Skewness and Kurtosis
{
Eλ [ξ + η] = Eλ [ξ] + Eλ [η]
1. .
Eλ [µξ] = µEλ [ξ]
2. Vλ [µξ + ν] = µ2 Vλ [ξ].
Proof: 1) The proof of the linearity is given in the Section Appendix.
2) Since αξ + β is a fuzzy variable; on the other hand, by Definition 2 and
the first Proposition 2 , we have:
Vλ [µξ + ν] = Eλ [(µξ + ν − Eλ [µξ + ν])2 ] = Eλ [(µξ + ν − µEλ [ξ] − ν)2 ]. Thus,
we have: Vλ [µξ + ν] = Eλ [(µξ − µEλ [ξ])2 ] = Eλ [µ2 (ξ − Eλ [ξ])2 ]. Finally, by
the first result of Proposition 2, we have: Vλ [µξ + ν] = µ2 Eλ [(ξ − Eλ [ξ])2 ] =
µ2 Vλ [ξ].
8
3.3 Semi-variance and semi-kurtosis
t4 ) − 45 ((c − eλ )5 − t5 )]
+ αλ [ 15 (eλ − a)5 + 45 (c − eλ )5 − (c − eλ )4 (eλ − a)].
Proof : The proof of this Proposition is similar to the proof of the sec-
ond result of Proposition 2.
9
3.3 Semi-variance and semi-kurtosis
2. If c ≤ eλ ≤ d then:
- VλS [ξ] increases with respect to λ when λ ≤ 34 .
- KλS [ξ] increases with respect to λ when λ ≤ 56 .
Remark 2.
10
3.4 Some properties of fuzzy variables characteristics
11
4 Application for portfolio selection
12
4.2 Implementation of the two models with Huang’s data
(−0.6, 1.8, 3.0) and the second family of ten assets returns described by the
following trapezoidal fuzzy variables proposed by Hasuike et al. [3] (written
as (a, b, c, d)): ξ1 = (−0.362, −0.123, 0.005, 0.873), ξ2 = (−0.37, −0.069, 0.069, 0.536),
ξ3 = (−0.329, −0.129, 0.025, 0.738), ξ4 = (−0.193, 0.005, 0.177, 0.412), ξ5 =
(−0.299, −0.082, 0.114, 0.437), ξ6 = (−0.342, −0.052, 0.108, 0.49) ,
ξ7 = (−0.292, −0.056, 0.067, 0.436), ξ8 = (−0.25, 0.060, 0.193, 0.649), ξ9 =
(−0.405, −0.093, 0.130, 0.756) , ξ10 = (−0.554, 0.009, 0.236, 0.5). In addi-
tion, we set for each family of assets, three targets values t1 , t2 , t3 considered
respectively as the minimum benefit (expected value), the maximum risk
(variance) and the minimum skewness that the investor can bear. The two
proposed selection models for best portfolios of those assets are:
minimize Kλ [xi1 ξi1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ]
subject to
λ i1 i1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ] ≥ t1
E [x ξ
Vλ [xi1 ξi1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ] ≤ t2 (12)
S [x ξ
λ i1 i1 + x ξ
i2 i2 + ... + x ξ
ik ik ] ≥ t 3
xi1 + xi2 + ... + xik = 1
xik ≥ 0, k ∈ {7; 10}
and
minimize KλS [xi1 ξi1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ]
subject to
Eλ [xi1 ξi1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ] ≥ t1
Vλ [xi1 ξi1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ] ≤ t2 (13)
Sλ [xi1 ξi1 + xi2 ξi2 + ... + xik ξik ] ≥ t3
x + xi2 + ... + xik = 1
i1
xik ≥ 0, k ∈ {7; 10}
In the following paragraph, we implement the two models by using Huang’s
data.
13
4.2 Implementation of the two models with Huang’s data
the seven securities for a given value of λ and for either K, either K S as
objective function and, (ii) Table 2 gives characteristics (parameters) of best
portfolios of Table 1.
14
4.2 Implementation of the two models with Huang’s data
15
4.3 Implementation of the two models with Tokyo stock exchange data
Asset i 1 (%) 2 (%) 3 (%) 4 (%) 5 (%) 6 (%) 7 (%) 8 (%) 9 (%) 10 (%)
(Kλ= 1 ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.69 0.00 0.00
4
S
(Kλ= 1) 0.05 0.04 0.05 43.77 0.06 0.05 0.07 55.84 0.04 0.03
4
(Kλ= 1 ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.16 0.00 0.00
3
S
(Kλ= 1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.16 0.00 0.00
3
(Kλ= 1 ) 48.51 0.00 0.00 28.78 0.00 0.00 18.87 3.75 0.00 0.00
2
S
(Kλ= 1) 48.37 0.00 0.00 31.71 0.00 0.00 17.56 2.25 0.00 0.00
2
16
5 Concluding Remarks
The following histogram provides for Tokyo stock exchange data, clear ob-
servations of those characteristics variations according to the model and the
parameter λ.
5 Concluding Remarks
In this paper, we have determined two useful axioms of the mλ − measure of
fuzzy events combining possibility and necessity measures with an optimistic
parameter which describes investor attitude to make a decision in uncertain
situations. By means of the mλ -measure and its axioms, we have defined and
determined properties of some characteristics (four first moments and two
first semi-moments) of a fuzzy variable. These moments and semi-moments
have been determined and analyzed for trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy
variables. The obtained results generalize those obtained earlier by Liu [6],
Li et al. [5], Huang et al. [4] and Sadefo et al. [9]. Those theoretical results
have been illustrated in portfolio selection with fuzzy returns in Finance.
We have proposed and implemented two models which led to a huge variety
of solutions in portfolio selection according to some given target values. We
have displayed the impact of the variation of the optimistic parameter on
the investment’s risk and the benefit: the benefit and the risk increase with
respect to the optimistic parameter.
For further research, we propose to tackle some interesting questions among
17
6 Appendix
6 Appendix
Proof of Proposition 2 (linearity of the mean): According to the ex-
pressions recalled in relations (4) and (5) and the notions of optimistic and
pessimistic functions respectively given by:
Xsup (α) = sup{r/P os{x ∈ X/ξ(x) ≥ r} ≥ α} and Xsup (α) = sup{r/P os{x ∈
X/ξ(x) ≥ r} ≥ α} with α ∈ (0, 1], Liu and Liu [7] proved that:
∫1 ∫1
1. E[ξ] = 0 Xsup (α)dα and E[ξ] = 0 Xinf (α)dα.
18
6 Appendix
2) Let ξ be a symmetric fuzzy variable. Let us prove that VλS [ξ] = Vλ [ξ].
∫ +∞
Let us write: VλS [ξ] = Eλ [[(ξ − eλ )− ]2 ] = 0 ⇕λ {[(ξ − eλ )− ]2 ≥ r}dr =
∫ +∞ √ √
⇕λ {(ξ − eλ )− ∈] − ∞; − r] ∪ [ r; +∞[}dr and
0 ∫ +∞ ∫ +∞
Vλ [ξ] = Eλ [(ξ − eλ )2 ] = 0 ⇕λ {(ξ − eλ )2 ≥ r}dr = 0 ⇕λ {(ξ − eλ ) ∈
√ √
] − ∞; − r] ∪ [ r; +∞[}dr.
If µ and ν are respectively membership { functions of fuzzy variables ξ − eλ
µ if ξ − eλ ≤ 0
and (ξ − eλ )− , then we have ν = . Let us observe that
0 otherwise
ξ is symmetric with respect to eλ if and only if ξ − eλ is symmetric with
respect to 0. We have, ∀r > 0:
√ √
Mλ {(ξ−eλ ) ∈]−∞; − r]∪[ r; +∞[} = λ supx∈]−∞;−√r]∪[√r;+∞[ µ(x)+(1−
λ)(1−supx∈]−√r;−√r[ µ(x)) = λ max(supx∈]−∞;−√r] µ(x), supx∈[√r;+∞[ µ(x))+
(1 − λ)[1 − max(supx∈]−√r;0] µ(x), supx∈[0;√r[ µ(x))].
Let us notice that by fact that ξ is symmetric, we have: supx∈]−∞;−√r] µ(x) =
supx∈[√r;+∞[ µ(x) and supx∈]−√r;0] µ(x) = supx∈[0;√r[ µ(x). so, we have:
√ √
⇕λ {(ξ − eλ ) ∈] − ∞; − r] ∪ [ r; +∞[} = λ supx∈]−∞;−√r] µ(x) + (1 − λ)[1 −
supx∈]−√r;0] µ(x)).
However, supx∈]−∞;−√r] µ(x) = supx∈]−∞;−√r] ν(x) and supx∈]−√r;0] µ(x) =
supx∈]−√r;0] ν(x), that is:
√ √
⇕λ {(ξ − eλ ) ∈] − ∞; − r] ∪ [ r; +∞[} = λ supx∈]−∞;−√r] ν(x) + (1 − λ)[1 −
supx∈]−√r;0] ν(x)).
19
6 Appendix
√ √
By the fact that ν is null on the intervals [ r; +∞[ and [0; r[, we finally
have:
√ √
⇕λ {(ξ −eλ ) ∈]−∞; − r]∪[ r; +∞[} = λ supx∈]−∞;−√r]∪[√r;+∞[ ν(x)+(1−
√ √
λ)[1 − supx∈]−√r;−√r[ ν(x)) = ⇕λ {(ξ − eλ )− ∈] − ∞; − r] ∪ [ r; +∞[}.
Therefore, we get VλS [ξ] = Vλ [ξ].
By a similar way, one can prove that KλS [ξ] = Kλ [ξ].
mλ (Ac ) = 1.
Finally,
for λ = 1, we obtain by Axiom 3:
0=1
or . However, 0 = 1 is wrong. So, λmλ (Ac ) = 1.
c
mλ (A ) = 1
20
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