Project Management

Effort and size Estimation

Part -1

Chapter 1

•Systems Analysis and Design in a

•1
Changing World, 6th Edition
Fundamental estimation questions

Time? Effort?

Cost?

How Much?
 Fundamental estimation questions
• How much effort is required to complete an activity?
• How much calendar time is needed to complete an
activity?
• What is the total cost of an activity?
• Project estimation and scheduling are interleaved
management activities.
 Software Project Estimation Effort
Estimation

It Is the process of predicting Effort, productivity,

time and cost required to develop software
projects.
It uses Software metrics to estimate size of
projects
Software Metrics refers to measurements relating
to computer software
Software Estimation Process
Software Estimation process…

•6
 Software Effort Estimation
• It Is the process of predicting Effort,
productivity, time and cost required to
develop software projects.
• Effort can be calculated as Staff or Person per
day/Week/Month/Year.
• For small project it is common to use Staff-
Weeks while for large project it is common to
use Staff-months
 are:
Software
The four Estimation
basic steps in Process
software project estimation

1) Estimate the size of the development product.

This generally ends up in either Lines of Code (LOC)
or Function Points (FP), but there are other possible
units of measure. A discussion of the pros & cons of
each is discussed in some of the material referenced
at the end of this report.
2) Estimate the effort in person-months or person-
hours.
3) Estimate the schedule in calendar months.
4) Estimate the project cost in dollars (or local
currency)
•8
 Effort
• Effort can be calculated as Staff or Person per day/Week/Month/Year
• For small project it is common to use Staff-Weeks while for large project
it is common to use Staff-months
• Example 30 staff-month means that you need 30 staff to finish it in one
month
• For two months you need only 15 staff per month (30/2) you have more
time so you need less people
• To calculate staff-month in weeks you need to multiply by 4 30*4 = 120
staff-week; to calculated in years /12 (30/12= 2.5 staff-year)
• To calculate effort phase percentage (e.g. 10% of total effort) 10% of 30 =
3 staff-month. If for example the phase last for 3 months then you need
1 staff for each month 3/3)
Software Estimation process…

> Size Estimation

> Environmental attribute Effort
> Product Attribute

•10
 A taxonomy of estimating
methods
• Bottom-up - activity based, analytical
• Parametric or algorithmic models e.g.
function points
• Expert opinion - just guessing?
• Analogy - case-based, comparative
• Parkinson and ‘price to win’ ?? (Search it)

•11
 Bottom-up versus top-down
• Bottom-up
– use when no past project data
– identify all tasks that have to be done – so quite time-consuming
– use when you have no data about similar past projects
• Top-down
– produce overall estimate based on project cost drivers
– based on past project data
– divide overall estimate between jobs to be done

•12
 Bottom-up estimating
1. Break project into smaller and smaller
components
[2. Stop when you get to what one person can
do in one/two weeks]
3. Estimate costs for the lowest level activities
4. At each higher level calculate estimate by
adding estimates for lower levels

•13
 Bottom-up estimating

• Produce overall
Estimate estimate using effort
overall
100 days driver(s)
project
• distribute proportions of
overall estimate to
components
design code test
30% 30% 40%
i.e. i.e. i.e. 40 days
30 days 30 days

•14
 Sizing the project
• Size is a primary cost factor in most models.

– Development time is a function of program size

– the time it takes to develop a program depends upon the
size (and the complexity) of the program

– Product size measures should correlate to the effort/

hours you need to develop them.

– There are several common types of code size

as shown in the next diagram.

•15
 Sizing Models / Techniques

Source Lines Of Code Function Points

Objects Points

Analogy Banker
Traditional

Expert
Judgment Variants PRINCE
Object points
Real Time
Functionality(bott
Adaptations
om-up) SEER – SEM
Object points
Parametric

•16
 Source Line of Code (LOC)
• LOC = NCLOC + CLOC
– NCLOC : non- commented Line of code.
– CLOC :commented Line of code.

• KLOC is used to denote thousands of Line of code.

• Blank lines - not usually counted

•17
 Example

for (i = 0; i < 100; i++) printf("hello"); /* How many lines of code is this? */

In this example we have:

• 1 Physical Line of Code (LOC)
• 2 Logical Lines of Code (LLOC) (for statement
and printf statement)
• 1 comment line
 Example 2

/* Now how many lines of code is this? */

for (i = 0; i < 100; i++)
{
printf("hello");
}
In this example we have:
•5 Physical Lines of Code (LOC): is placing braces work to be
estimated?
•2 Logical Line of Code (LLOC): what about all the work writing non-
statement lines?
•1 comment line: tools must account for all code and comments
regardless of comment placement.
 SLOC

• Physical LOC: counts text lines • Example 1

• Logical LOC: counts language 1. If A>B
elements(if, then, else, begin, 2. then A - B
end, …) : 3. else A + B;
• First example
– Logical LOC : 3 LOC • Example 2
1. If A>B
– Physical LOC: 3 LOC
2. then
3. begin
4. A-B
• Second example:
5. end
– Logical LOC: 7 LOC 6. Else
– Physical lines :9 LOC 7. begin
8. A+B
9. end;
•20
 SLOC
How many physical source lines are there in this C language
program?

#define LOWER 0 /* lower limit of table */

#define UPPER 300 /* upper limit */
#define STEP 20 /* step size */

main() /* print a Fahrenheit->Celsius conversion

table */
{
int fahr;
for(fahr=LOWER; fahr<=UPPER; fahr=fahr+STEP)
printf(“%4d %6.1f\n”, fahr, (5.0/9.0)*(fahr-32));
}

21
SLOC.. Expert judgment model

S = (a + 4m + b ) / 6

– “S” is SLOC,
– “a’ is the smallest possible size (optimistic)
– “m” is the most likely size
– “b” is the largest possible size. (Pessimistic)
– “a”,”m”,”b” is determined by experts.
 Estimation of LOC
Consider the following software
project
S/W Component a m b LOC
User interface and control
facilities UICF 1,500 2,300 3,100 2,300
Two-dimensional geometric
analysis 2DGA 3,800 5,200 7,200 5,300
Three-dimensional geometric
analysis 3DGA 4,600 6,900 8,600 6,800
Database management DBM 1,600 3,500 4,500 3,350
Computer graphics display
features CGDF 3,700 5,000 6,000 4,950
Peripheral control PC 1,400 2,200 2,400 2,100
Design analysis modules DAM 7,200 8,300 10,000 8,400
Estimated lines of code 23,800 33,400 41,800 33,200
23
What are the drawbacks of SLOC?
 Function Points
• A measure of the size of computer applications
• The size is measured from a functional, or user, point of
view.
• It is independent of the computer language,
development methodology, technology or capability of
the project team used to develop the application.
• Can be subjective
• Can be estimated EARLY in the software development
life cycle.

25
 The Function Point Methodology
Five key components are
• Inputs identified based on logical user view
• Outputs
• Inquiries
Input Inquiry Output
• Internal Logical Files
• External Interface Files
Internal
Logical
Files

External Application
Interface
File
 Function Points - continued
Five function types
1. Logical interface file (LIF) types – equates
roughly to a datastore in systems analysis
terms. Created and accessed by the target
system.

2. External interface file types (EIF) – where

data is retrieved from a datastore which is
actually maintained by a different
application. •27
 Function Points - continued
3. External input (EI) types – input transactions which
update internal computer files.

4. External output (EO) types – transactions which

extract and display data from internal computer files.
Generally involves creating reports.

5. External inquiry (EQ) types – user initiated

transactions which provide information but do not
update computer files. Normally the user inputs
some data that guides the system to the information
the user needs.
•28
 FP complexity multipliers

External user Low complexity Medium High

types complexity complexity
EI _____x3 _____x4 _____x6
EO _____x4 _____x5 _____x7
EQ _____x3 _____x4 _____x6
LIF _____x7 _____x10 _____x15
EIF _____x5 _____x7 _____x10

• Unadjusted FP Count (UFPC)= Sum

(sum of product for each type).
•29
 Example(1)
Payroll application has:
1. Transaction to input, amend and delete employee details – an EI that
is rated of medium complexity
2. A transaction that calculates pay details from timesheet data that is
input – an EI of high complexity
3. A transaction of medium complexity that prints out pay-to-date
details for each employee – EO
4. A file of payroll details for each employee – assessed as of medium
complexity LIF
5. A personnel file maintained by another system is accessed for name
and address details – a simple EIF
What would be the FP counts for these?

•30
 FP counts
1. Medium EI 4 FPs
2. High complexity EI 6 FPs
3. Medium complexity EO 5 FPs
4. Medium complexity LIF 10 FPs
5. Simple EIF 5 FPs

Total 30 FPs

If previous projects delivered 5 FPs a day, implementing the above should

take 30/5 = 6 days

•31
 Example (2)
• LIF 4 easy 5 average 3 Hard
• EI 7 easy 6 average 2 Hard
• EO 6 easy 2 average 3 Hard
• EQ 3 easy 4 average 2 Hard

External user Easy Average Hard UFP

types
EI 7x3 6x4 2x6 57
EO 6x4 2x5 3x7 55
EQ 3x3 4x4 2x6 37
LIF 4x7 5x10 3x15 123
EIF 0x5 0x7 0x10 0
Unadjusted Function Point Counts (UFPC) 272
 Calculate Degree of Influence (DI)
0 1 2 3 4 5

No influence Incidental Moderate Average Significant Essential

1. Does the system require reliable backup and recovery? 3

2. Are data communications required? 4
3. Are there distributed processing functions? 1
4. Is performance critical? 3
5. Will the system run in an existing, heavily utilized operational environment? 2
6. Does the system require on-line data entry?
7. Does the on-line data entry require the input transaction to be built4 over multiple screens or
operations?
8. Are the master files updated on-line? 3
9. Are the inputs, outputs, files, or inquiries complex? 3
10. Is the internal processing complex? 2
11. Is the code designed to be reusable? 1
12. Are conversion and installation included in the design? 3 5
13. Is the system designed for multiple installations in different organizations?
14. Is the application designed to facilitate change and ease of use by the user?
1
1
 The FP Calculation:
• Inputs include:
– Count Total
– DI = S Fi (i.e., sum of the Adjustment factors F1.. F14)

• Calculate Function points using the following

formula:
FP = UFPC X [ 0.65 + 0.01 X S Fi ]
TCF: Technical
complexity factor
• In this example:
FP = 345 X [0.65 + 0.01 X (3+4+1+3+2+4+3+3+2+1+3+5+1+1)
FP = 345 X [0.65 + 0.01 X (36)
FP = 345 X [0.65 + 0.36]
FP = 345 X [1.01]
FP = 348.45
 Reconciling FP and LOC
AVERAGE SOURCE
LANGUAGE STATEMENTS PER FUNCTION
POINT
1032/AF 16
1st Generation default 320
2nd Generation default 107
3rd Generation default 80
4th Generation default 20
5th Generation default 5
Assembly (Basic) 320
BASIC 107
C 128
C++ 53
COBOL 107
JAVA 53
Visual Basic 5 29

What would be LOC for the pervious example in JAVA: 348.45

348 x 53 = 18457 LOC