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China Brief

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China Brief

Uploaded by

James Balleras
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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China

To: Negotiators for China at United Nations World Climate Summit


Subject: Briefing on Negotiating Goals

Goals
China seeks to negotiate a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that can limit climate risks but also seeks the
best outcome for our economy and vital national interests. At the 2015 UN climate negotiations in Paris, nations agreed to a
goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” You must now decide on the following:

1. Actions to reduce China’s greenhouse gas emissions, if any. Without action, China’s emissions are expected to grow
significantly by 2100. You can decide when your emissions will stop growing, when they will begin declining, and at
what annual rate emissions decline, if at all. See the gray boxes on the next page for additional guidance.
2. Whether to make commitments to reduce deforestation or plant new forest area.
3. How much you will contribute to, or request from, a global climate fund, which is intended to provide at least $100
billion/year for developing countries to reduce their emissions and adapt to climate change.

Context
The scientific consensus on climate is clear: over 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is happening, that it is
caused primarily by use of fossil fuels, and that the impacts could be devastating. China is vulnerable to climate change, as the
country’s water, food, and energy systems are already stressed and expected to face increasing pressure due to rising sea levels,
droughts, water scarcity, and heat waves.

Public Opinion National Action


Our people, like everywhere else, want to live in a Above all, we must defend our right to develop. Nevertheless,
healthy environment, but they also want to increase we recognize that our reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal,
their standard of living; this includes having decent jobs, is causing negative health impacts. We have promised to peak
housing, food, healthcare, mobility and national our carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and have stated a goal
security. There is widespread acknowledgement in our of achieving net-zero emissions before 2060. Meeting these
country that climate change is real, though few support goals requires more than doubling electricity production by
agreements to address the associated risks.
2060, with most of that increase coming from renewable and
zero-carbon energy sources.
Opportunities
Besides slowing climate change, reaching an agreement Forests and Land Use
to limit emissions would also reduce local air pollution, We have some opportunities to make reductions in emissions
which is affecting the health of our people and, in some from deforestation and land degradation. Most of the world’s
cases, creating political unrest. In addition, our remaining tropical forests are in developing countries, and,
economy is growing rapidly, and we are emerging as a unfortunately, there is substantial deforestation occurring.
superpower that can leverage business opportunities
Programs to protect forests can reduce emissions.
associated with an energy transition away from fossil
fuels.

Developed by Climate Interactive, MIT Sloan, and the UML Climate Change Initiative. Updated: Mar 2022
Global Landscape
• The developed nations created the climate crisis and so should take responsibility for addressing it. These nations built
their economies on fossil fuels, and now, while we are finally raising our own people out of poverty and manufacturing
the bulk of their consumer goods, we cannot shoulder an unfair burden of reductions. Our emissions per person are
still only about 40% of those of the US. Our average standard of living, though rising, is still far lower than that in the
US, Europe, Japan, and other developed nations.
• China may face pressure to contribute to the global climate fund since we are now the world’s second largest economy.
Any commitments we make should require significant commitments to action by the US, EU, and other developed
nations.
• The developed nations fear the rapid economic development we are now, finally, enjoying, and may seek to use a global
climate agreement to slow our growth, limit our markets, and constrain our diplomatic and military influence around
the world. Meanwhile, the US had pledged to reduce their emissions by only 26-28% by 2025 from 2005 levels but
several years of inaction by the Trump Administration makes success in fulfilling their pledge seem difficult.

CO2 Emissions from Energy Use China is the world’s largest


emitter of CO2. Without action,
16
Other Developing developing countries’ emissions
from fossil fuels are projected
14 China to double by 2100.
12
Billions of Tons CO2 /year

10
Sweden sustained annual CO2
8
emissions reductions of 4.5% to
Other Developed reduce their dependence on oil
6 US (1976-1986). France and
India Belgium saw similar reductions
4 around this time. Otherwise,
EU most significant historical
2 emission reductions have come
Baseline projections from financial or political crises.
0 if no action taken More recently, the UK reduced
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 emissions by an average 3.5%
Year annually between 2007-2017.

GDP per person in 2018 Population Wealth and Emissions from energy use
(2017 PPP US Dollars) Cumulative Emissions per person
$61,461 2018 (tons CO2 per year)
100%
Other Developing
16.9
India
80%
$43,985 China
China
EU
7.4
7.4
$32,383 60% Other
Developed 9.7 Other
Developed
40% 7.3 7.0
EU 10.5
$14,870
$10,305 20%
$6,497 1.9 2.5
US

0%
Population GDP in 2018 Cumulative CO2
China
US

EU

India
Developed
Other

Developing
Other

EU

China
Developed

Developing
India
Other
US

Other

(2018) (2017 PPP US Emissions from


Dollars) Fossil fuels
(1850 - 2018)

Since 1980, emissions from energy per


While cumulative emissions so far have been higher in the developed countries (i.e., the
person have risen dramatically in
US, EU, and other developed countries), the growth of population, GDP per
China and India (by 380% and
person, and emissions in the developing nations far outpaces growth in the developed
360%, respectively) but have fallen in
countries. If no action is taken, cumulative emissions of all developed countries (US,
the US and Europe (by 20% and 28%
EU, and other developed) are expected to fall to 42% of total by 2100.
respectively).

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