China Brief
China Brief
Goals
China seeks to negotiate a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that can limit climate risks but also seeks the
best outcome for our economy and vital national interests. At the 2015 UN climate negotiations in Paris, nations agreed to a
goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” You must now decide on the following:
1. Actions to reduce China’s greenhouse gas emissions, if any. Without action, China’s emissions are expected to grow
significantly by 2100. You can decide when your emissions will stop growing, when they will begin declining, and at
what annual rate emissions decline, if at all. See the gray boxes on the next page for additional guidance.
2. Whether to make commitments to reduce deforestation or plant new forest area.
3. How much you will contribute to, or request from, a global climate fund, which is intended to provide at least $100
billion/year for developing countries to reduce their emissions and adapt to climate change.
Context
The scientific consensus on climate is clear: over 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is happening, that it is
caused primarily by use of fossil fuels, and that the impacts could be devastating. China is vulnerable to climate change, as the
country’s water, food, and energy systems are already stressed and expected to face increasing pressure due to rising sea levels,
droughts, water scarcity, and heat waves.
Developed by Climate Interactive, MIT Sloan, and the UML Climate Change Initiative. Updated: Mar 2022
Global Landscape
• The developed nations created the climate crisis and so should take responsibility for addressing it. These nations built
their economies on fossil fuels, and now, while we are finally raising our own people out of poverty and manufacturing
the bulk of their consumer goods, we cannot shoulder an unfair burden of reductions. Our emissions per person are
still only about 40% of those of the US. Our average standard of living, though rising, is still far lower than that in the
US, Europe, Japan, and other developed nations.
• China may face pressure to contribute to the global climate fund since we are now the world’s second largest economy.
Any commitments we make should require significant commitments to action by the US, EU, and other developed
nations.
• The developed nations fear the rapid economic development we are now, finally, enjoying, and may seek to use a global
climate agreement to slow our growth, limit our markets, and constrain our diplomatic and military influence around
the world. Meanwhile, the US had pledged to reduce their emissions by only 26-28% by 2025 from 2005 levels but
several years of inaction by the Trump Administration makes success in fulfilling their pledge seem difficult.
10
Sweden sustained annual CO2
8
emissions reductions of 4.5% to
Other Developed reduce their dependence on oil
6 US (1976-1986). France and
India Belgium saw similar reductions
4 around this time. Otherwise,
EU most significant historical
2 emission reductions have come
Baseline projections from financial or political crises.
0 if no action taken More recently, the UK reduced
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 emissions by an average 3.5%
Year annually between 2007-2017.
GDP per person in 2018 Population Wealth and Emissions from energy use
(2017 PPP US Dollars) Cumulative Emissions per person
$61,461 2018 (tons CO2 per year)
100%
Other Developing
16.9
India
80%
$43,985 China
China
EU
7.4
7.4
$32,383 60% Other
Developed 9.7 Other
Developed
40% 7.3 7.0
EU 10.5
$14,870
$10,305 20%
$6,497 1.9 2.5
US
0%
Population GDP in 2018 Cumulative CO2
China
US
EU
India
Developed
Other
Developing
Other
EU
China
Developed
Developing
India
Other
US
Other