ECO 1421 Week 21
ECO 1421 Week 21
Part 1
Ajaz Hussain, Economics, University of Toronto (STG)
(ECO101) “Theory”: Market Structure by # of Firms
Source: Soren T. Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, and Stephen W. Salant, "Hotelling under
Pressure," Journal of Political Economy 126, no. 3 (June 2018): 984-1026.
2
“Practice”: Two Metrics of Market Structure
Define “Market” Boundary and let 𝑇 = Total # of firms in market
“Tricky” – see next slide
Hardest
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑖 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒𝑠
Calculate each firm’s % share of market revenues (𝑠𝑖 = 100)
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒
Is
É
Concentration Ratio Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index
𝐶𝑅𝑛 𝐻𝐻𝐼
not
1,500 < 𝐻𝐻𝐼 < 2,500
𝐶𝑅1 ≥ manage 𝐶𝑅4 < 40 𝐻𝐻𝐼 ≤ 1,500
If the III.ly
90
on
“Monopoly” “Competition” “Not Concentrated”
“Moderately
Concentrated” raisins
4
Defining Market Boundary is Easier Said Than Done CRN ES
HH E's
Example #1: Proposed Sirius and XM Satellite Radio “Merger” (2008)
euger
Satellite Radio Market “All” Radio Market
FewerFirm
lessent competition
pi
efficiency
You'll notice a couple of sectors stand out somewhat. In theory, diversity offers investors
some protection. That may hold true to some degree in the basic industries sector, which
encompasses everything from construction to chemicals alongside metals and mining
companies. Yet metals feature prominently in that sector, with the top five issuers by
amount being ArcelorMittal, Alcoa, Peabody Energy, Teck Resources and Fortescue
Metals Group. All are exposed to the bear market in commodities tied largely to fears of
a slowdown in Chinese demand. Similarly, energy issuers may be legion, but they are all
Source: “Resource Monopolies” tied to the oil price, which sank to a new multi-year low on Monday.
6
HHI: Examples #2
Source: Here’s How They Play Monopoly in America, and Who Wins, Bloomberg, April 5, 2017 Source: Economist Magazine, Corporate Concentration
Source: Are Index Funds Evil? A growing chorus of experts argue that
they’re strangling the economy—and must be stopped
The Atlantic, Sept. 2017
8
rewind IUD
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(US) Horizontal M&A Guidelines
𝐻𝐻𝐼
He
𝐻𝐻𝐼 ≤ 1,500 1,500 < 𝐻𝐻𝐼 < 2,500 𝐻𝐻𝐼 ≥ 2,500
“Unconcentrated” “Moderately Concentrated” “Concentrated”
Small Change in Concentration: Mergers involving an increase in the HHI of less than 100 points are unlikely to have
adverse competitive effects and ordinarily require no further analysis.
Unconcentrated Markets: Mergers resulting in unconcentrated markets are unlikely to have adverse competitive
effects and ordinarily require no further analysis.
Moderately Concentrated Markets: Mergers resulting in moderately concentrated markets that involve an increase in
the HHI of more than 100 points potentially raise significant competitive concerns and often warrant scrutiny.
Highly Concentrated Markets: Mergers resulting in highly concentrated markets that involve an increase in the HHI of
between 100 points and 200 points potentially raise significant competitive concerns and often warrant scrutiny.
Mergers resulting in highly concentrated markets that involve an increase in the HHI of more than 200 points will be
presumed to be likely to enhance market power. The presumption may be rebutted by persuasive evidence showing
that the merger is unlikely to enhance market power.
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Calculating Change in 𝐻𝐻𝐼 from a Proposed Merger
𝐻𝐻𝐼𝑝𝑟𝑒−𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑟 = 𝑠12 + 𝑠22 + … + 𝑠𝑖2 + … + 𝑠𝑗2 + … + 𝑠𝑇2
2quagggreabive
2
𝐻𝐻𝐼𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑−𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑟 = 𝑠12 + 𝑠22 + … + 𝑠𝑖 + 𝑠𝑗 + … + 𝑠𝑇2
If the proposed merger is “approved” and companies 𝑖 and 𝑗 become one company:
Δ 𝐻𝐻𝐼 =
N a sits sits
p
z sis
If g
attJan hove
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“Firm with 𝐶𝑅1 ≥ 90: “Pricing Mechanisms”
Part 1
Ajaz Hussain, Economics, University of Toronto (STG)
Companies with Market Power: Some Applications
Pricing
“Organization” (In ECO204 2022-2023, we
focus on some aspects of
pricing)
“Competitive Strategy”
Marketing, Branding,
Exogenous and Endogenous
Advertising
Barriers to Entry
15
“Price Neglect” p TUC TFC Pla E TUCCE TFC
McKinsey Consulting: Price changes have the biggest, fastest impact on profits
+1% price = profits up 8.6% LARGEST IMPACT
-1% variable cost = profits up 5.9%
+1% volume = profits up 2.8%
-1% fixed cost = profits up 1.7%
Survey of professional pricing society members:
40% match online prices to those offline
30% set all prices by matching rivals
“Amazon typically relies on algorithms that scrape competitors’ prices before automatically matching or
narrowly undercutting them on its website”
At Whole Foods, Amazon Takes Rare Lead in Cutting Prices, Wall Street Journal, August 28, 2017
28% have no Internet pricing strategy
22% set all prices only to recover costs and tack on profit (Cost-Plus) Not OPTIMAL
18% do customer research to determine value to buyer
16
Firm with Market Power: Some Static Pricing Mechanisms
Pricing Scheme in Each Period Independent of Other Periods (i.e. no inter-temporal demand/production linkages)
Ra3 Qo
Firm with Market Power: Pricing Mechanisms
P'g
price
same p per out var waseca
Two-Part Tariff
Customized Pricing
(2nd Degree Price Discrimination with an access fee
(1 Degree Price Discrimination)
st
and a usage price)
17
Data for Pricing Decisions
Basic Data Relevance Comment
Price/demand data B2C Helps construct price-response function
Bid-price data B2B Helps construct bid-response function
Pricing guidance and business rules B2C, B2B Specifies constraints in pricing decision
Market segmentation and intelligence B2C, B2B Supports price customization (price discrimination)
Advanced Data Relevance Comment
Product and location hierarchies B2C Supports tier pricing
Special event data B2C Supports timing of special events
Inventory data B2C Helps estimate effect of inventory on sales
Out-of-stock data B2C Helps “un-constrain” demand
Promotion data B2C Supports timing of special promotion
Competitive data B2C, B2B Links own performance with rivals’ prices
Click data B2C Supports segmentation and price customization
Source: Bodea and Ferguson, Pricing Segmentation and Analytics, Harvard Business Publishing
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“Firm with 𝐶𝑅1 ≥ 90: “Pricing Mechanisms”
Part 2
Ajaz Hussain, Economics, University of Toronto (STG)
Firm with Market Power: Some Static Pricing Mechanisms
Pricing Scheme in Each Period Independent of Other Periods (i.e. no inter-temporal demand/production linkages)
Two-Part Tariff
Customized Pricing
(2nd Degree Price Discrimination with an access fee
(1 Degree Price Discrimination)
st
and a usage price)
20
𝐶𝑅1 ≥ 90 Firm Charging a Uniform Price
p in
dieters Cesbulkus sins
que
“Profit Maximizer” “Revenue Maximizer”
Exercise: What is the “market size” for linear, concave, convex demand curves?
22
Week 21: Demand Models Excel File
23
Some Price-Response and Respective Revenue Functions
CONVEX
Linear
concave
SEMI LOCt
q
Linear Demand Curve 𝑃 = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑞 = 100 − 𝑞
Concave Demand Curve 𝑃 = 𝑎 − 𝑏 𝑞 = 100 − 10 𝑞
4 Classic
MEI
mon Convex Demand Curve ሶ 2 = 100 − 0.01𝑞 2
𝑃 = 𝑎 − 𝑏𝑞
Into
thes
Semi-Log Demand Curve 𝑃 = 𝑎𝑞 −𝛼 = 100𝑞 −0.1
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Examples: “Linear” Demand Models
Source: Gamsi, Laffont, Vuong, “Econometric Analysis of Collusive Behavior in a Soft−Drink Market”,
Journal of Economics and Management Strategy
1 if spring/summer
∎ 𝐴 = square root of quarterly real advertising expenses ∎ 𝑆 = ቊ
0 if winter/fall
Source: HBS Case The Prestige Telephone Company
𝑃𝑐 = 1,466.67 − 4.83𝑞𝑐
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Examples: Semi-Log Demand Models
Source: Bodea and Ferguson, Pricing Source: Demand Function of Beef per capita (Ajaz’s
Segmentation and Analytics, Harvard calculations using USDA data)
Business Publishing)
𝛽 𝛽
𝑞𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑓 = 𝛽0 × 𝑃𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑥
1
× 𝑃𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑓
2
× 𝑌𝛽3
𝑞 = 𝛽0 𝑃𝛽1
I
ln 𝑞 = ln 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ln 𝑃
ln 𝑞𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑓 = ln 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ln 𝑃𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑥 + 𝛽2 ln 𝑃𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑓 + 𝛽3 ln 𝑌
o
Bo
É “Log-Log” Regression:
“Log-Log” Regression:
0.83 0.33
a
Tutorial: 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐸, 𝐶𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐸, 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐸?
Tutorial: Notice that 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐸 = −3.44
In
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A Beautiful & Practical Result for Profit Maximizing Companies
A Simple Rule for Pricing with Limited Knowledge of Demand. MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5145-15
𝑃
Assumption 1: Company knows max 𝑊𝑇𝑃
𝑀𝐶 = 𝐴𝑉𝐶
𝑞Π∗
Assumption 3: Firm can produce any amount and can dispose of unsold units at zero cost
ANY DEMAND CURVE 28
p
𝐶𝑅1 ≥ 90 Firm Charging Uniform Prices
Need 𝑃 𝑞 : “Price
Assume linear price- Assume linear cost
Response Function” (i.e.
response function function
demand function/curve)
Coke and Pepsi Concentrate Syrup Demand models. All pecuniary variables are in constant dollars
1 if spring/summer
∎ 𝐴 = square root of quarterly real advertising expenses ∎ 𝑆 = ቊ
0 if winter/fall
Source: Gamsi, Laffont, Vuong, “Econometric Analysis of Collusive Behavior in a Soft−Drink Market”,
Journal of Economics and Management Strategy
30
Example 2: Linear Price-Response and 𝑇𝑉𝐶 𝑞 Functions
Recall from The Prestige Telephone Company case
Commercial Data Service Demand Curves Jan 2003 – March 2003 and the “Breakeven Month”
𝑃𝑐 ($/hr)
𝑀𝐶𝑐 = 𝐴𝑉𝐶𝑐 = 28
𝜕L 𝑑𝑅 𝑑𝑇𝑉𝐶 𝑑𝑇𝐹𝐶
= − − − 𝜆1 + 𝜆2 = 0 With constant returns FOC:
𝜕𝑞 𝑑𝑞
ด 𝑑𝑞 𝑑𝑞 𝑀𝑅(𝑞) = 𝑀𝐶 + 𝜆1 − 𝜆2
𝑀𝑅(𝑞) 𝑀𝐶(𝑞) 0
𝜆1 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐, 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 = 0
PMP FOC and KT conditions Next, split this into 2 cases
𝑀𝑅(𝑞) = 𝑀𝐶 + 𝜆1 − 𝜆2
𝜆1 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐, 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 = 0 𝜆2 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≥ 0, 𝜆2 𝑞 = 0 First, split this into 2 cases
𝜆2 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≥ 0, 𝜆2 𝑞 = 0
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The “General” Uniform Price PMP
PMP FOC and KT conditions
𝑀𝑅(𝑞) = 𝑀𝐶 + 𝜆1 − 𝜆2
𝜆1 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐, 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 = 0
𝜆2 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≥ 0, 𝜆2 𝑞 = 0
𝜆2 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≥ 0, 𝜆2 𝑞 = 0
Suppose 𝑞 = 0 Suppose 𝜆2 = 0
If so, 𝜆2 ≥ 0 If so, 𝑞 ≥ 0
𝜆1 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐, 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 = 0 𝜆1 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐, 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 = 0
𝑀𝑅 0 = 𝑀𝐶 + 0 − 𝜆2 𝑀𝑅 𝑐 = 𝑀𝐶 + 𝜆1 − 0 𝑀𝑅 𝑞 = 𝑀𝐶 + 0 − 0
⇒ 𝜆2 = −𝑀𝑅 0 + 𝑀𝐶 ≥ 0 ⇒ 𝜆1 = 𝑀𝑅 𝑐 − 𝑀𝐶 ≥ 0 ⇒ 𝑀𝑅 𝑞 = 𝑀𝐶
⇒ 𝑀𝑅 0 ≤ 𝑀𝐶 ⇒ 𝑀𝑅 𝑐 ≥ 𝑀𝐶
Make sure you Interpret and truly
Make sure you Interpret and truly Make sure you Interpret and truly understand this statement (this is
understand this statement understand this statement what you saw in ECO 101)
35
The “General” Uniform Price PMP: Lagrange Multipliers
PMP FOC and KT conditions max Π = 𝑅 − 𝑇𝑉𝐶 − 𝑇𝐹𝐶 𝑠. 𝑡. 𝑞𝑚𝑖𝑛 ≤ 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐
𝑀𝑅(𝑞) = 𝑀𝐶 + 𝜆1 − 𝜆2 𝑞
𝜆1 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≤ 𝑐, 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 = 0
𝜆2 ≥ 0, 𝑞 ≥ 0, 𝜆2 𝑞 = 0 L = Π − 𝜆1 𝑞 − 𝑐 − 𝜆2 −𝑞 + 𝑞𝑚𝑖𝑛
∗ ∗
L ∗ = Π𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 − 𝜆1∗ 𝑞∗ − 𝑐 − 𝜆∗2 −𝑞∗ + 𝑞𝑚𝑖𝑛 = Π𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑
0 0
∗ ∗
L = Π𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑
$ $ $
𝑀𝐶(0) 𝑀𝑅(0)
𝑀𝑅(𝑐) 𝑀𝑅 𝑞 = 𝑀𝐶
𝑀𝐶
B 𝑀𝐶(𝑐)
𝑐 𝑞
𝑀𝐶 𝑀𝐶
Demand Demand
Demand C D
0 0 𝑐 𝑞 0 𝑐 𝑞
𝑀𝑅 𝑀𝑅
𝑀𝑅
Real life example? Should company expand capacity? Should company reduce capacity?
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