5

Urban Expansion and Traffic Congestion:

A Geographical Study of Shimla
Akshat Sharma and Amardeep Boora*

Department of Civil Engineering, Jaypee University of Information Technology,

Waknaghat, Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

F
The study examines the phenomenon of urban sprawl and its consequences on
traffic congestion in the Shimla subdistrict. Through the analysis of land use/cover
maps, travel distance, travel time, and congestion levels in various areas of the
O
city, the study highlights the challenges associated with rapid urbanization. The
results indicate a noteworthy rise in the built-up area over the years, accompa-
nied by a decline in vegetation cover and agricultural land. This expansion has
O
contributed to traffic congestion in key areas such as Mall Road, Sanjauli Chowk,
and Circular Road. The implications of urban sprawl and traffic congestion are
discussed, emphasizing the significance of effective urban planning and regulatory
interventions. The conclusion highlights the importance of sustainable land use
PR

practices, improved transportation systems, and the preservation of open spaces

to address these challenges. The paper concludes by emphasizing the significance
of holistic approaches to urban development, considering the unique context of
Shimla, to ensure a liveable and sustainable future for the city’s residents.
Keywords: Urban sprawl, traffic congestion, urban planning, transportation,
sustainability

5.1 Introduction
Urban sprawl and traffic congestion are two interrelated issues that have
significant impacts on the liveability and sustainability of cities. As cities

*Corresponding author: [email protected]

Disha Thakur, Sanjay Kumar, Har Amrit Singh Sandhu and Chander Prakash (eds.) Sustainable Development
Using Geospatial Techniques, (107–128) © 2024 Scrivener Publishing LLC

107
108 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

grow and expand, they often experience urban sprawl, which is distin-
guished by the unplanned and excessive expansion of urban areas beyond
their core boundaries [1]. Urban areas around the world are expanding
rapidly, both in terms of their geographical size and population density.
This growth is particularly evident in developing countries, where cities
experiencing rapid change [2]. As per the United Nations’ 2014 report on
global urbanization [3], by 2050, it is anticipated that 66% of the world’s
population will reside in cities, with 90% of this expansion taking place
in emerging nations. Asia and Africa will collectively concentrate around
73% of the world’s urban population [4]. The most recent information
available on the United Nations world population dashboard indicates
that India’s population has surpassed China’s population [5]. According
to World Bank United States Census Bureau estimates, India now has a
population of 1.4076 billion (140.76 crore) [6]. India’s proportion of peo-
ple living in cities has consistently increased since the country’s indepen-

F
dence, making it the world’s second-largest urbanized country, with over
30% of its population living in urban areas [2]. It is estimated that by 2025,
O
half of India’s population will be urbanized. Large cities in India are expe-
riencing rapid growth, leading to a significant concentration of the urban
population compared to smaller urban centers. The majority of India’s cit-
O
ies have their populations concentrated in large CBDs (Central Business
Districts) [7].
Shimla, a picturesque hill station in northern India, is rapidly becom-
PR

ing more urbanized, which is causing urban expansion and making traf-
fic worse. This frequently results in more reliance on private automobiles
and lengthier travel distances, which contributes to traffic congestion.
The major environmental impacts of urban sprawl are increasing pollu-
tion, including air pollution and water pollution, due to increased vehi-
cle use and runoff from impervious surfaces [8, 9]. Problems associated
with urban sprawl include traffic congestion, air and noise pollution, water
scarcity, and loss of green spaces. The unplanned development in Shimla
has caused natural ecosystems to become fragmented and the loss of bio-
diversity [10]. Furthermore, the area’s fast urbanization and growth have
raised property values and reduced the availability of cheap housing for the
local populace, making it challenging for many to find suitable accommo-
dation. The increasing demand for land and resources is also resulting in
the encroachment of forest areas and agricultural land, leading to environ-
mental degradation and soil erosion [11]. In addition to these challenges,
Shimla’s hilly terrain poses significant challenges for urban planning and
infrastructure development. The construction of buildings on sloping ter-
rain can lead to the erosion of soil and landslides during the monsoon
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 109

season, resulting in property damage and loss of life [12]. In recent times,
there has been an uncontrolled spread of urban development in some areas
around Shimla, while traffic congestion is the result of increased demand
for transportation services that exceeds the available supply [13]. The
relationship between urban sprawl and traffic congestion is complicated
and varies depending on several factors such as land-use patterns, trans-
portation infrastructure, and population density. Studying the correla-
tion between urban sprawl and traffic congestion in Shimla is important
because it can help policymakers understand the extent of the problem
and formulate policies and strategies to manage urban growth and traf-
fic congestion sustainably and equitably. The present study aims to utilize
GIS applications to pinpoint locations where urban sprawl has occurred
in Shimla and analyze traffic flow and density to determine the extent of
traffic congestion. Consequently, different satellite imagery, maps, land-use
data, and other relevant information will be analyzed to identify areas that

F
have experienced urban sprawl. By comparing the data on urban sprawl
and traffic congestion, the present study aims to determine the influence
O
of urban expansion on traffic congestion and vice versa. Traffic congestion
can have a significant economic impact on Shimla, with increased travel
times and reduced productivity. The study analyzes traffic congestion in
O
Shimla using traffic flow and density data to identify areas that are prone
to traffic congestion and formulate different guidelines to analyze future
growth patterns based on different scenarios such as population growth
PR

projections or zoning laws. A comparison between urban sprawl and traffic

congestion data was conducted to identify any correlation between them if
any. Interpretation of the results of the analysis and modeling draw impli-
cations for urban planning in Shimla. Based on the study findings, sev-
eral recommendations have been formulated to effectively manage urban
sprawl and alleviate traffic congestion in Shimla. The results of this study
permitted policymakers to create policies and strategies for controlling
urban expansion and traffic congestion sustainably and equitably about the
effects of urban sprawl on traffic congestion.
Land usage and land cover have changed significantly because of urban-
ization, resulting in changes in urban structures and patterns. In order to
understand the spatial characteristics of metropolitan regions, landscape
metrics were used to quantify the arrangement of the categories of land
cover and the overall landscape [14, 15]. GIS tools enabled the calcula-
tion of urban landscape metrics, such as patchiness and density, to analyze
spatial distribution and changes in urban areas. The analysis of sprawl pat-
terns and landscape metrics cannot be viewed independently, as the iden-
tification of the pattern provides an initial understanding of the landscape
110 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

configuration [15–17]. Additionally, the correlation between the two vari-

ables was done which will help in understanding the changes in urban
structures over time. Studies addressed the significance of landscape met-
rics and GIS tools in analyzing urbanization patterns and changes in land
use, which could aid in effective urban planning and management. Urban
sprawl was formerly measured by [18] and evaluated using an indica-
tor-based methodology, which was predicated on the idea that sprawl was
a multidimensional phenomenon requiring a multiple-indicator approach.
The GIS-based tool provided a quantitative derivation of certain sprawl
types, enabling researchers and urban planners to identify specific patterns
and trends in urban sprawl. In a recent study [4], the multidimensional
index method was utilized to quantify the urban sprawl in the US (United
States). Earlier [8], a range of indicators were proposed to measure sprawl
in the city of Istanbul. Consequently, the correlation between urban sprawl
and health, examining considerations, including pollution in the air, traf-

F
fic accidents, pedestrian accidents, and fatalities, the amount and purity
of water, mental wellness, and communal wealth were explored. Through
O
their analysis, the authors found that there were both health benefits and
costs associated with sprawl. Researchers noted that the negative effects
of sprawl did not affect all populations equally and emphasized the need
O
for special attention to those most affected. The authors emphasized the
importance of incorporating health considerations into policy-making at
all levels, from personal transportation decisions to federal regulations,
PR

arguing that it was crucial due to the uneven distribution of health effects
of sprawl [19]. A recent study [20] presented an analysis of forest cover
change (FCC) and land surface temperature (LST) in a specific study area
from 2000 to 2021. The research revealed a noteworthy decline of 5.59% in
heavily forested regions and a total decrease of approximately 2.99 km2 in
pasture and non-forest regions. However, during the period from 2000 to
2021, there was a substantial increase in these areas, with a rise of 7.25%
for dense forest and 0.22% for pasture and non-forest areas [21]. Earlier,
two different algorithms, namely, the single channel (SC) and split window
(SW) algorithms, were adopted to retrieve LST. Based on the findings, an
average difference of ±1 K between the years 2000, 2013, and 2021 was
observed due to rapid urbanization [22]. Furthermore, the studies revealed
a strong negative correlation coefficient between the LST retrieved using
the SC algorithm and the NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index)
throughout the years 2000 and 2013 (R2 = 0.791 and 0.750, respectively),
When compared to the NDVI in 2021, the LST generated by utilizing
the SW technique has an optimal negative correlation coefficient (R2 =
0.646) [23]. Earlier [1], a study was conducted to provide a comprehensive
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 111

understanding of urban sprawl in Israel through a land-use survey of 78

urban settlements over 15 years. The study employed factor analysis to
calculate an integrated sprawl index that accounted for various measures
of urban sprawl, including density, fragmentation, and land-use mix. The
findings demonstrated that urban sprawl is a multidimensional phenom-
enon requiring a multifaceted approach for effective quantification. The
results also indicated a significant increase in urban sprawl in Israel over the
15 years studied, attributed to population growth, economic development,
and inadequate urban planning and management strategies [1]. The use
of satellite data for analyzing the outcomes of land use/land cover (LULC)
variations on the temperature of the land retrieval has been extensively
explored in recent studies. Frumkin [9], Thakur et al. [24], and Negassa
et al. [25] utilized Landsat series datasets with TIRS sensors to examine the
relationship between LULC and LST. This technology plays a crucial role
in understanding land-surface interactions, temperature changes, global

F
warming, LULC, surface energy flow, and soil moisture. Previous studies
[23, 26] also supported the use of satellite data for LST retrieval.
O
5.2 Study Area
O
Shimla is a picturesque hill station that serves as the capital of Himachal
Pradesh, a northern Indian state. In accordance with the 2011 Census
PR

of India, Shimla has 1,69,578 residents. It is a bustling metropolis that

has grown significantly throughout the years. Shimla is located in the
Himalayan foothills, between 31°3’N and 31°8’N latitudes and 77°7’E
and 77°13’E longitudes. The city of Shimla is spread over an area of 30
km2, the length of which follows a ridge with seven spurs. Shimla is one of
the highest cities in India, having a mean elevation above mean sea level
of 2195 m. The city’s elevation gives it a unique climate, with cool tem-
peratures prevailing throughout the year. It is true that Shimla’s pleasant
weather during the summer months, with average temperatures ranging
from 19°C to 28°C, attracts many people to the city. Shimla’s popularity as a
tourist destination and a hill station has led to a significant rise in the num-
ber of individuals desiring to reside in urban areas permanently, which
has caused some problems, including traffic congestion. Urban sprawl and
traffic congestion are critical issues that affect the quality of life in many
cities around the world, and Shimla is no exception. The city’s unique geo-
graphical location, coupled with its growing population and popularity as
a tourist destination, has resulted in significant urbanization and expan-
sion in recent years, leading to an increase in traffic congestion and urban
112 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

65°E 32.4°N
35°N
India Himachal
Pradesh
30°N
31.5°N

Shimla
25°N
0 25 50 km

20°N 30.6°N

75.6°E 76.5°E 77.4°E 78.3°E

15°N
0 250 500 km
31°N

10°N

70°E 75°E 80°E 85°E 90°E 95°E 31°N

Subdistrict Shimla

LEGEND
subdistrict shimla — subdistrict_boundary
shimla — district_boundary
hp — state_boundary
india — state_boundary
F
0 2.5 5 km
31°N
O
77°E 77°E 77°E 77°E 77°E

Figure 5.1 Geographic overview: Study area location map.

O
Table 5.1 Satellite imagery and data sources.
PR

Scale and
Satellite imagery Date of spatial
S. no. data acquisition resolution Source
1 Landsat 05 TM C2 10-08-1993 30 m https://earthexplorer.
L2 usgs.gov/
2 Landsat 07 ETM+ 24-09-2003 29.8 m https://earthexplorer.
C2 L2 usgs.gov/
3 Landsat 08TIRS 24-09-2013 28 m https://earthexplorer.
C2 L2 usgs.gov/
4 Landsat 09 TIRS 28-10-2022 30 m https://earthexplorer.
C2 L2 usgs.gov/
5. Shapefile of the 15-04-2022 1:50,000 Survey of India
entire country
up to subdistrict
level
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 113

sprawl. As a result, Shimla has become an ideal study area for urban sprawl
and traffic congestion. The location map depicted in Figure 5.1 provided
an overview of the specific area used for the study. It illustrated the geo-
graphical context and spatial boundaries of India, Shimla, and Shimla
Subdistrict, enabling a clear understanding of its location about surround-
ing regions or landmarks. Table 5.1 provided a comprehensive reference
for the satellite imagery data and other relevant information that was uti-
lized in the study. It included essential details regarding the source of the
satellite imagery, such as the satellite series and sensors used, which could
include the Landsat series with TIRS sensors. This table also specified the
specific years or timeframes for which the imagery data was obtained, such
as 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2022.

5.3 Methodology

F
The primary focus of this research work is to investigate the urban sprawl
O
in Shimla subdistricts, spanning a timeframe of 30 years, specifically from
1993 to 2022. The study employed satellite imagery and geospatial tools
to examine the patterns and extent of urban expansion in the region. The
O
methodology for using GIS to analyze urban sprawl involved several steps,
and collecting relevant data was the first step. Data included satellite imag-
ery, maps, land-use data, population data, transportation data, building
PR

footprints, and other relevant information. The collected data were then
integrated into GIS software. Integration of the data was necessary to facil-
itate the analysis. The integrated data were then analyzed using QGIS spa-
tially to identify areas that had experienced urban sprawl. Spatial analysis
also helped in identifying areas that were at risk of urban sprawl. Spatial
analysis was done using tools like buffer analysis, density analysis, and
hotspot analysis. GIS was used to build models to simulate future growth
patterns based on different scenarios. The study utilized cloud-free Landsat
satellite information regarding multi-temporal pictures collected from the
Bhuvan (Indian Geo Platform of ISRO) and the US Geological Survey’s
Earth Explorer portal. To aid in analysis, the information collected was
preprocessed and then reflected onto the Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTM) projecting framework. QGIS software was used to calculate the
urban sprawl for four different periods: 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2022. The
Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin (SCP) tools were utilized for image
classification, enabling the identification of different land cover categories
according to the spectral signatures of the pixels. The HCMGIS (Ho Chi
Minh City Geospatial Information System) served as the base map for
114 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

Table 5.2 Overview of the classifications for land cover and usage.
Class ID Class name Description
1 Urban or built-up areas Includes dwelling, industrial, and
commercial areas.
2 Forest area (vegetation) Areas covered by trees, shrubs, and
other plants.
3 Water bodies Rivers, lakes, ponds, and other
bodies of water.
4 Agricultural land Areas used for growing crops,
including apples and pears
orchards.
5 Open space Areas that are not developed include

F parks, glaciers, snow-capped

mountains, and wilderness areas.
O
reference. Utilizing this as a base map offered access to satellite imagery
procured from various sources, including Google and other platforms. The
O
inclusion of this base map proved particularly advantageous when grap-
pling with challenges related to training inputs as this is georeferenced. To
perform the classification, the pixel colors were assigned training inputs
PR

based on the RGB (Red-Green-Blue) index. In this study, a 5-4-3 index

pattern was utilized to identify and highlight vegetation and built-up areas.
On the other hand, the 6-5-2 index was employed to differentiate agri-
culture, open space, and water bodies. The classified images were then
imported into QGIS, where they were analyzed and processed to derive
the urban sprawl. The analysis involved comparing the land cover classes
of the different periods to identify changes in the urban areas. The urban
sprawl was then calculated by measuring the expansion of the built-up area
over time. Table 5.2 describes the LULC classes employed in this research.
The LULC classification was determined by interpreting the satellite imag-
ery using various spectral bands and indices.

5.4 Result and Discussion

The analysis of the LULC maps of different years (1993, 2003, 2013,
and 2022) reveals notable changes in the urban landscape of Shimla.
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 115

Figure 5.2(a) represents the map of Shimla’s land usage and cover in 1993,
showcasing the distribution of various land use categories surrounding
the geographical region. The built-up area, which represents the urban-
ized and developed land, has experienced a substantial increase over the
years. In 1993, the built-up area covered 100.40 km2, corresponding to
about 20.08% of the entire area of the Shimla subdistrict, which is approx-
imately 500.12 km2 as given in Table 5.3. Figure 5.2(b) displays the corre-
sponding map for the year 2003, reflecting the changes in land use over a
decade. The trend remained similar in 2003, with a built-up area of 105.12

31.2°N
31.2°N

31.1°N

F
31.1°N
O
31.0°N
31.0°N
0 2.5 5 km 0 2.5 5 km
O
77.0°E 77.1°E 77.2°E 77.3°E 77.0°E 77.1°E 77.2°E 77.3°E
PR

(a) (b)

2022
2013
31.2°N
31.2°N

31.1°N
31.1°N

Legend
2013 map
1 - vegetation 31.0°N
2 - Built up area
31.0°N 3 - open spece
0 2.5 5 km 4-1 0 2.5 5 km

30.9°N

77.0°E 77.1°E 77.2°E 77.3°E 77.0°E 77.1°E 77.2°E 77.3°E

(c) (d)

Figure 5.2 (a) Land use and land cover map of Shimla subdistrict in 1993. (b) Land use
and land cover map of Shimla subdistrict in 2003. (c) Land use and land cover map of
Shimla subdistrict in 2013. (d) Land use and land cover map of Shimla subdistrict in 2022.
116 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

Table 5.3 Population and land use distribution in different years.

Forest Open
Urban area Agricultural land space
Year Population (km2) land (km2) (km2) (km2)
1993 1,02,186 100.40 35.60 288.67 75.45
[27]
2003 1,42,555 105.12 31.87 281.84 81.29
[28]
2013 1,69,578 185.32 14.25 281.21 19.34
[29]
2022 8,89,813 199.14 6.34 251.46 43.18

F
km2, also representing 21.02% of the entire region as presented in Figure
5.2(b). However, as time progressed, the built-up region increased signifi-
O
cantly. Figure 5.2(c) provides insights into the LULC map of Shimla in
2013, revealing further alterations in the landscape. In 2013, the built-up
area had increased to 185.32 km2, constituting 37.05% of the entire region
O
given in Figure 5.2(c). Besides this, Figure 5.2(d) presents the most recent
LULC map of Shimla, reflecting the land use dynamics up to the year 2022.
This trend continued in 2022, with the built-up area reaching 199.02 km2,
PR

accounting for 39.82% of the entire region as depicted in Figure 5.2(d). This
indicates a substantial growth in urbanization and development within the
Shimla subdistricts.
Conversely, the vegetation cover witnessed a notable decline over the
years. In 1993, the vegetation cover accounted for 57.72% of the overall
area, but it reduced to 56.35% in 2003, 56.23% in 2013, and 50.28% in 2022.
This decline in vegetation highlights the conversion of natural land cover
to urbanized areas. Similarly, agricultural land also experienced a signifi-
cant reduction in its extent. In 1993, agricultural land covered 7.12% of the
entire area, but it declined to 6.37% in 2003, 2.85% in 2013, and 1.27% in
2022. This indicates the transition of agricultural land into urban areas or
other land uses. These findings indicated Shimla’s fast urban sprawl and
increase of built-up regions over time. Agricultural land and plant cover
have suffered as a result of the expansion of built-up regions.
This urban sprawl has led to various environmental and social issues,
including traffic jams, environmental impact, and the decline of green
cover [30]. Figure 5.2 shows the different land use/cover classes in Shimla
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 117

in 1993, which serves as a baseline for the subsequent analysis. This con-
siderable growth in the populated region is indicative of rapid urbaniza-
tion and urban sprawl in the research area.
As the population of the city has grown in recent years, there has been a
corresponding increment in the necessity for housing and infrastructure,
leading to the transformation of agricultural land, open spaces, and water
bodies into built-up areas. This tendency is anticipated to continue in the
future since the city’s population is expected to grow further. This empha-
sizes the importance of good urban expansion planning and management
to encourage sustainable growth and minimize the negative impact that
urbanization has on the environment and the standard of living for its citi-
zens. The land use map of 1993 has been included in the research paper to
provide a baseline for the study of changing land use and urban sprawl in
Shimla over the past few decades. It permits an understanding of the vari-
ations in land cover and usage that have taken place in the research area

F
over time and provides insights into the drivers of urbanization and sprawl
in the region. The land use map of 1993 provides a snapshot of the study
O
area before the significant changes that have occurred in recent years and
serves as a reference point for the analysis of subsequent years.
Table 5.4 provides a comparison of land use statistics for different years
O
and presents the measurements of variations over time. Regarding the per-
centage of urban area, there was an increase from 20.08 km2 in 1993 to
39.82 km2 in 2022, indicating a growth of 0.94 km2 (4.68%) from 1993 to
PR

2003 and 18.04 km2 (85.47%) from 2003 to 2013. The percentage change
from 2013 to 2022 was 2.76%, this expansion can be correlated to fac-
tors including population growth, urbanization, growth of the economy,
and the growth of the tourism industry. The agricultural land witnessed
a decline over the years due to the transformation of agricultural land for
urban development, changing land use priorities, and a shift away from
traditional agricultural practices with 7.12 km2 in 1993 decreasing to 1.27
km2 in 2022. This represents a decrease of 0.75 km2 (-10.54%) from 1993
to 2003, 3.52 km2 (-55.23%) from 2003 to 2013, and 1.58 km2(-55.44%)
from 2013 to 2022. Factors contributing to this decline include defor-
estation, encroachment, and resource extraction activities. These factors
have impacted the forested areas, leading to the reduction in forest land.
Similarly, the forest land decreased from 57.72 km2 in 1993 to 50.28 km2 in
2022. The percentage change was -1.37% from 1993 to 2003, -0.13% from
2003 to 2013, and -5.95% from 2013 to 2022. Open space, which includes
public parks and green areas, experienced fluctuations. It expanded from
15.09 km2 in 1993 to 16.25 km2 in 2003, representing a growth of 1.17
km2 (7.76%). However, there was a significant decrease to 3.87 km2 in 2013
118 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

Table 5.4 Comparison of land use statistics for different years and change
analysis.
Percentage Percentage Percentage
change change change
(1993– (2003– (2013–
Area type 1993 2003 2013 2022 2003) 2013) 2022
Urban area in 20.08 21.02 37.06 39.82 0.94 16.04 2.76
(km2)
Agricultural 7.12 6.37 2.85 1.27 -0.75 -3.52 -1.58
land (km2)
Forest land 57.72 56.35 56.23 50.28 -1.37 -0.13 -5.95
(km2)
Open space 15.09 16.25 3.87 8.63 1.17 -12.39 4.77
(km2)

F
O
(-16.16%) before a slight recovery to 8.63 km2 in 2022. The percentage
change was -12.39% from 2003 to 2013 and 4.77% from 2013 to 2022. The
changes in open space can be attributed to urban development, land scar-
O
city, and changes in development policies.
PR

5.5 Accuracy Assessment

Projection accuracy was examined using the error matrix and Kappa coef-
ficient technique to ensure the correctness of the land cover categoriza-
tion. An error matrix is a table that compares classified data to reference
data, which is a set of independently collected data with known ground
truth. For each land cover class, the matrix computes the entire quantity of
properly categorized pixels (i.e., diagonal components) and the percentage
of misclassified pixels (i.e., off-diagonal elements). The Kappa coefficient
is a statistical measure that provides a standardized degree of conformity
between reference and categorized data. It considers the probability of
the agreement occurring by chance and provides a measure of the overall
accuracy of the classification. A coefficient of 0 indicates agreement that
is no better than chance, whereas a Kappa value of 1 indicates total agree-
ment. The reliability of the categorization findings may be assessed and
confirmed by employing the error matrix and Kappa coefficient approach.
This information can be used to improve the classification methodology, if
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 119

necessary, and to provide confidence in the accuracy of the final land cover
categorization. The classification precision was assessed utilizing ground
truth data and statistical methods, as in the error matrix and Kappa coef-
ficient. The land use and land cover information were used to examine
urban sprawl, land use changes, and their impact on traffic congestion in
the study area.
Table 5.5 presents the point accuracy, user/producer accuracy, and
Kappa coefficient values for the classification of different land use classes.
A measure of producer accuracy is the degree to which actual land cover
classes may be characterized using errors of omission. The likelihood that
a recognized pixel would match the kind of land cover at its corresponding
real-world location is indicated by the user’s accuracy. The classification
accuracy for the urban/built-up region in the current study was observed
to be 88.7% which indicates a relatively high accuracy in identifying and
mapping urban areas. The forest area exhibited a higher accuracy of 94.5%,

F
indicating a more precise classification of forested regions. Water bodies
were classified with an accuracy of 97.8%, demonstrating a high level of
O
accuracy in identifying water features. The agricultural land class achieved
an accuracy of 89.3%, indicating a reasonable level of precision in mapping
agricultural areas. Open space areas were classified with an accuracy of
O
92.1%, signifying good conformity between the categorized map and ref-
erence data for open space regions.
PR

Table 5.5 Results of land use/cover mapping accuracy.

Point/
overall User Producer
accuracy Kappa accuracy accuracy
Category (%) coefficient (%) (%)
Urban/ 88.7 0.83 90.5 88.9
built-up
area
Forest area 94.5 0.91 95.7 95.2
Water bodies 97.8 0.96 98.0 98.6
Agricultural 89.3 0.84 91.2 88.7
land
Open space 92.1 0.88 93.5 92.5
120 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

Point/overall accuracy = the number of ground truth points divided by

the total number of points
To analyze and simulate the urban growth trend in the region of inter-
est, several landscape measures were calculated using statistical data on
demographics and built-up areas. One of the primary metrics used was
Shannon entropy (Hn), which is commonly utilized to assess urban growth
phenomena. The formula for calculating Shannon entropy involves the
summation of all types of land use and cover in the study region multiplied
by its natural logarithm. As part of the analysis, calculations were per-
formed for map density, and buffering along major roads. These landscape
metrics help to provide a thorough knowledge of the urbanization pattern
in the research area, which can aid in the improvement of effective urban
planning and management techniques. The value of Shannon entropy is
directly related to the uncertainty or diversity of land use/cover classes in
a specified region. A higher value of entropy indicates a greater degree of

F
uncertainty in the information conveyed, which can be interpreted as a
higher level of diversity or fragmentation in the land use/cover layouts. In
O
the context of urban sprawl, a high value of entropy may suggest that the
city is expanding in an uncontrolled or unplanned manner, with a greater
degree of fragmentation in the land use/cover patterns.
O
The equation for calculating Shannon entropy (Hn) is as follows:

1
H n = ∑ni Plog
PR

i e (5.1)
Pi

Hn is the Shannon entropy value

Pi is the percentage of each land use/cover class in the research area, and it
is determined by dividing the class’s total area by the study area as a whole.

xi
Pi = (5.2)
∑ni xi

To analyze urban growth patterns in different subdistricts of the

research area, Shannon entropy was calculated for each ward within a sub-
district. In this case, each ward was considered as an independent spatial
unit. The formula for calculating Shannon entropy for each ward is given
in Equation 5.3.
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 121

Table 5.6 Confusion matrix for land use/cover classification.

Built-up Forest Water Agricultural Open
area area bodies land space
Built-up area 150 5 3 10 2
Forest area 6 180 1 8 3
Water bodies 1 0 15 2 0
Agricultural 9 7 2 30 5
land
Open space 2 4 0 7 25

F
H i n = ∑ni Plog
i e
Pi
(5.3)
O
Table 5.6 depicts a potential confusion matrix (error matrix) utilized in
the research for LULC categorization. The columns are the ground truth,
showing which true classes the pixels in the validation set. In contrast, the
O
rows show the classes into which the picture pixels were classified through-
out the classification process. The matrix’s diagonal represents the correctly
identified pixels. Outside the diagonal, the off-diagonal items reflect mis-
PR

classifications that occurred during the assignment process between dis-

tinct land-cover classes. These components indicate the presence of pixels
that were incorrectly allocated to their respective classes, emphasizing the
misunderstanding between different land-cover classes.

5.6 Traffic Congestion Analysis

The locations of Mall Road, Sanjauli Chowk, Victory Tunnel, Circular
Road, Tutikandi, Chotta Shimla, and Kasumpti in Shimla were included
in the study for the assessment of traffic congestion. These locations were
selected based on their significance in terms of traffic flow and urban devel-
opment in Shimla. By analyzing the traffic congestion and urban sprawl
patterns in these areas, the study aimed to gain insights into the dynamics
of urbanization’s effects on transportation infrastructure in Shimla. Travel
time and distance between different parts of the city and their correlation
with traffic congestion are presented in Table 5.7.
122 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

Table 5.7 provides valuable insights into the travel distances, travel
times, and congestion levels of different areas in Shimla, highlighting the
varying degrees of traffic congestion experienced in these locations. These
data were then used to compare travel time and distance across different
parts of the city and to explore how traffic congestion levels may be related
to travel time and distance. Mall Road, situated 2.5 km away, experiences
a travel time of approximately 15–20 min and has a congestion level of 5,
indicating high traffic congestion. Sanjauli Chowk, situated at a distance of
5 km, had a travel time of 30–40 min and a congestion level of 4. Similarly,
Victory Tunnel, with a travel distance of 3 km, requires approximately
20–25 min of travel time and has a congestion level of 4. Circular Road,
spanning 6 km, has a longer travel time of 40–50 min and a congestion
level of 5, suggesting significant traffic congestion in the area. Tutikandi,
located at a distance of 8 km, requires a travel time of 60–70 min and has
a congestion level of 4. Chotta Shimla, covering a travel distance of 6 km,

F
has a relatively shorter travel time of 30–40 min and a congestion level of
2, indicating lower traffic congestion compared to other areas. Kasumpti,
O
spanning 7 km, has a travel time of 50–60 min and a congestion level of 3. As
depicted in Table 5.8, Mall Road and Tutikandi are identified as areas with
high congestion levels, indicating heavy traffic and potential traffic jams.
O
These areas also exhibit high levels of urban sprawl, indicating significant
urban expansion and development. Sanjauli Chowk and Chotta Shimla
have a moderate congestion level, suggesting relatively smoother traffic
PR

Table 5.7 Areas in Shimla with their travel distance and travel time
during peak traffic hours.
Travel distance Travel time Congestion
Area (km) (minutes) level (1–5)
Mall Road 2.5 15–20 5
Sanjauli Chowk 5 30–40 4
Victory Tunnel 3 20–25 4
Circular Road 6 40–50 5
Tutikandi 8 60–70 4
Chotta Shimla 6 30–40 2
Kasumpti 7 50–60 3
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 123

Table 5.8 Spatial distribution of traffic congestion and urban

sprawl in different parts around Shimla.
City Congestion level Urban sprawl level
Mall Road High High
Sanjauli Chowk Moderate High
Victory Tunnel Low Low
Circular Road High Moderate
Tutikandi High High
Chotta Shimla Moderate Moderate
Kasumpti Moderate Low

F
Table 5.9 Characteristics of land use categories and their contribution to urban
O
sprawl.
Land use type Characteristics Contribution to urban sprawl
O
Residential Low density High
Large lot sizes
PR

Single-use zoning
Commercial Low density Moderate
Large parking lots
Single-use zoning
Industrial Low density Moderate
Large industrial parks
Single-use zoning
Mixed-use High density Low
Small lot sizes
Mixed-use zoning
Open space Low density Low
Public parks, green spaces
124 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

flow compared to the high-congestion areas. However, they still exhibit

a high level of urban sprawl, indicating considerable urban development.
Table 5.9 summarizes the key characteristics of different land use types
and their contribution to urban sprawl. As the population has grown, the
urban area has expanded, leading to a decrease in agricultural land, forest
land, and open space. Residential land use is typically associated with low
density and large lot sizes, which can lead to urban sprawl. Commercial
and industrial land use also tends to be low-density, with large parking lots
as well as single-use zoning, which may have an impact on urban expan-
sion. Mixed-use zoning and high-density development can help to reduce
urban sprawl, while open space typically has a low contribution to urban
sprawl.

5.7 Conclusion

F
The study of traffic congestion and urban sprawl in Shimla has highlighted
O
the challenges that the city is facing due to its quick urbanization. The
analysis of land use/cover maps from different years has revealed a notable
expansion of the built-up area, indicating the expansion of urban infra-
O
structure and the encroachment of natural and agricultural land.
Urban expansion has led to various consequences, including a reduc-
tion in the quality of the natural environment, loss of agricultural land, and
PR

reduction in open spaces have adverse effects on the city’s sustainability

and liveability. The increased traffic congestion not only hampers the effi-
ciency of transportation but also leads to increased air pollution, accidents,
as well as a drop in the inhabitants’ general standard of living.
The findings indicate that urban sprawl in Shimla is driven by several
factors. The growing population, influx of tourists, infrastructure devel-
opment, availability of quality education and employment opportunities,
favorable environment, standard of living, and economic growth have
resulted in the expansion of residential, commercial, and industrial areas.
To address these challenges, effective urban planning policy interven-
tions are crucial. The integration of sustainable land-use practices, mixed
land-use zoning, and the promotion of compact, walkable neighborhoods
can help manage urban sprawl and reduce dependence on private vehicles.
Furthermore, conservation and restoration efforts should be undertaken to
protect and enhance open spaces, green areas, and the natural landscape.
Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders,
to consider the long-term implications of urban sprawl and traffic conges-
tion in Shimla. By adopting a holistic and integrated approach, focused on
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 125

sustainable development, environmental preservation, and efficient trans-

portation systems, the city can strive toward a more liveable, resilient, and
environmentally friendly future.

References
1. Frenkel and M. Ashkenazi, “Measuring urban sprawl: How can we deal with
it?” Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des., vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 56–79, 2008, doi: 10.1068/
b32155.
2. M. K. Jat, P. K. Garg and D. Khare, “Monitoring and modelling of urban
sprawl using remote sensing and GIS techniques,” Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs.
Geoinf., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 26–43, 2008, doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2007.04.002.
3. S. Farooq and S. Ahmad, “Urban sprawl development around Aligarh city: A
study aided by satellite remote sensing and GIS,” J. Indian Soc. Remote Sens.,

F
vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 77–88, 2008, doi: 10.1007/s12524-008-0008-0.
4. M. Jia, H. Zhang and Z. Yang, “Compactness or sprawl: Multi-dimensional
approach to understanding the urban growth patterns in Beijing-Tianjin-
O
Hebei region, China,” Ecol. Indic., vol. 138, no. January, p. 108816, 2022, doi:
10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108816.
5. Department of Social and Economic Affairs, “India overtakes China as the
O
world’s most populous country,” UN DESA Policy Br. No. 153.
6. J. Chamie, “Population Growth Diversity Continuing in the Twenty-first
Century,” Popul. Levels, Trends, Differ. Springer, Cham., 2022, doi: https://
doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-22479-9_38.
PR

7. Rahman, S. P. Aggarwal, M. Netzband and S. Fazal, “Monitoring Urban

Sprawl Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques of a Fast Growing Urban
Centre, India,” IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens., vol. 4, no. 1,
pp. 56–64, 2011, doi: 10.1109/JSTARS.2010.2084072.
8. H. Frumkin, “Urban sprawl and public health,” Public Health Rep., vol. 117,
no. 3, pp. 201–217, 2002, doi: 10.1016/S0033-3549(04)50155-3.
9. S. He and J. Wu, “Relationships of groundwater quality and associated
health risks with land use/land cover patterns: A case study in a loess area,
Northwest China,” Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess., vol. 25, no. 1–2, pp. 354–373,
2019, doi: 10.1080/10807039.2019.1570463.
10. M. S. Boori, M. Netzband, K. Choudhary and V. Voženílek, “Monitoring
and modeling of urban sprawl through remote sensing and GIS in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia,” Ecol. Process., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1–10, 2015, doi: 10.1186/
s13717-015-0040-2.
11. K. S. Sunil Sankhala, “Evaluation of Urban Sprawl and Land Use Land cover
Change using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A Case Study of Jaipur
City, India,” Int. J. Emerg. Technol. Adv. Eng., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 1–5, 2014,
[Online]. Available: http://www.krishisanskriti.org/Publication.html.
126 Sustainable Development Using Geospatial Techniques

12. R. Gupta, M. Sharma, G. Singh and R. K. Joshi, “Characterizing urban growth

and land surface temperature in the western Himalayan cities of India using
remote sensing and spatial metrics,” Front. Environ. Sci., vol. 11, no. January,
pp. 1–15, 2023, doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1122935.
13. M. A. Mahboob, I. Atif and J. Iqbal, “Remote Sensing and GIS Applications
for Assessment of Urban Sprawl in Karachi, Pakistan,” Sci. Technol. Dev., vol.
34, no. 3, pp. 179–188, 2015, doi: 10.3923/std.2015.179.188.
14. P. Cabral, H. Geroyannis, J. P. Gilg and M. Painho, “Analysis and modeling of
land-use and land-cover change in Sintra-Cascais area,” Proc. 2005 - 8th Agil.
Int. Conf. Geogr. Inf. Sci. Agil. 2005, 2005.
15. M. Herold, G. Menz and K. C. Clarke, “Remote Sensing and Urban Growth
Models – Demands and Perspectives,” Regensburg. Geogr. Schriften, vol. 35,
pp. 78–88, 2001, [Online]. Available: http://www.eo.uni-jena.de/~c5hema/
pub/herold_menz_clarke.pdf.
16. H. S. Sudhira, T. V Ramachandra and K. S. Jagadish, “Map India 2003
Municipal GIS Urban Sprawl pattern recognition and modeling using GIS

F
Map India 2003,” map India, pp. 28–31, 2003.
17. H. S. Sudhira, T. V. Ramachandra and K. S. Jagadish, “Urban sprawl: Metrics,
O
dynamics and modelling using GIS,” Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., vol. 5,
no. 1, pp. 29–39, 2004, doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2003.08.002.
18. S. Siedentop and S. Fina, “Monitoring urban sprawl in Germany: Towards a
gis-based measurement and assessment approach,” J. Land Use Sci., vol. 5, no.
O
2, pp. 73–104, 2010, doi: 10.1080/1747423X.2010.481075.
19. L. Feng, “Applying remote sensing and GIS on monitoring and measuring
urban sprawl. A case study of China,” Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., vol. 10,
PR

no. 1, pp. 47–56, 2008.

20. P. K. Thakur, “Spatiotemporal changes of forest cover and land surface tem-
perature using geo-spatial techniques in Talra Wildlife Sanctuary, Shimla,
North-Western Himalaya,” 2023.
21. P. Jain, I. Singh and M. Jain, “Built-up Analysis of the Hill Town of Nainital,”
vol. 10, pp. 3872–3878, 2023.
22. M. P. Johnson, “Environmental impacts of urban sprawl: A survey of the lit-
erature and proposed research agenda,” Environ. Plan. A vol. 33, no. 4, pp.
717–735, 2001, doi: 10.1068/a3327.
23. P. K. Thakur, M. Kumar and V. E. Gosavi, Monitoring and Modelling of
Urban Sprawl Using Geospatial Techniques—A Case Study of Shimla City,
India. 2020. doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-2097-6_8.
24. M. D. Negassa, D. T. Mallie and D. O. Gemeda, “Forest cover change detec-
tion using Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing techniques: a
spatio-temporal study on Komto Protected forest priority area, East Wollega
Zone, Ethiopia,” Environ. Syst. Res., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1–14, 2020, doi: 10.1186/
s40068-020-0163-z.
25. M. Chowdhury, M. E. Hasan and M. M. Abdullah-Al-Mamun, “Land use/
land cover change assessment of Halda watershed using remote sensing
 Urban Sprawl and Traffic Congestion in Shimla 127

and GIS,” Egypt. J. Remote Sens. Sp. Sci., vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 63–75, 2020, doi:
10.1016/j.ejrs.2018.11.003.
26. R. Nikam, F. Ibragimov, A. Chouksey, V. Garg and S. P. Aggarwal, “Retrieval
of land surface temperature from Landsat 8 TIRS for the command area
of Mula irrigation project,” Environ. Earth Sci., vol. 75, no. 16, 2016, doi:
10.1007/s12665-016-5952-3.
27. Census of India, “Decadal variation in population since 1901,” 1993.
28. Census Commission of India, “Census of India 2001,” 2001.
29. Census of India, “Shimla city census 2011 data,” 2011.
30. S. Kumar, T. Kaur, M. K. Arora and S. Upadhyay. “Resource estimation and
sizing optimization of PV/micro hydro-based hybrid energy system in rural
area of Western Himalayan Himachal Pradesh in India.” Energy Sources Part
A vol. 41, no. 22, 2019 pp. 2795-2807, doi; https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036
.2019.1576075

F
O
O
PR
PR
O
O
F