Section

 4.4  –  Conditional  Probability  

MDM4U  
Jensen  
 
Refer  to  part  1  of  4.4  lesson  for  help  with  the  following  questions  
 
1)  Joel  surveyed  his  class  and  summarized  responses  to  the  question,  “Do  you  like  school?”  
 
  Liked   Disliked   No  Opinion   Total  
Males   12   5   2   19  
Females   10   3   1   14  
Total   22   8   3   33  
 
Find  each  of  the  following  probabilities:  
 
a)  𝑃 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑠  𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙    𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡  𝑖𝑠  𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)    
b)  𝑃 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡  𝑖𝑠  𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒    𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡  𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑠  𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)  
 
 
2)  A  person  is  chosen  at  random  from  shoppers  at  a  department  store.  If  the  person’s  probability  of  
! !
having  blonde  hair  and  glasses  is  !"  and  the  probability  of  wearing  glasses  is  !",  determine  the  probability  
that  a  person  has  blonde  hair  given  that  they  wear  glasses.    
 
3)  From  a  medical  study  of  10  000  male  patients,  it  was  found  that  2500  were  smokers;  720  died  from  
lung  cancer  and  of  these,  610  were  smokers.  Determine:  
 
a)  𝑃 𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔  𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚  𝑙𝑢𝑛𝑔  𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟    𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑟)  
b)  𝑃 𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔  𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚  𝑙𝑢𝑛𝑔  𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟    𝑛𝑜𝑛 − 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑟)  
 
4)  The  table  shows  the  results  of  a  survey  in  which  146  families  were  asked  if  they  own  a  computer  and  if  
they  will  be  taking  a  summer  vacation  this  year.    
 
 
Does  not  
Takes  a  
  Take  a   Total  
Vacation  
Vacation  
Owns  a  
46   11   57  
Computer  
Does  Not  Own  
55   34   89  
a  Computer  
Total   101   45   146  
 
a)  Find  the  probability  a  randomly  selected  family  is  taking  a  summer  vacation  this  year  given  that  they  
own  a  computer.    
b)  Find  the  probability  a  randomly  selected  family  is  taking  a  summer  vacation  this  year  and  owns  a  
computer.  
 
 
 
Refer  to  part  2  of  4.4  lesson  for  help  with  the  following  questions  
 
4)  What  is  the  probability  of  being  dealt  two  clubs  in  a  row  from  a  well-­‐shuffled  deck  of  52  playing  cards  
without  replacing  the  first  card  drawn?  
 
5)  A  bag  contains  three  red  marbles  and  five  white  marbles.  What  is  the  probability  of  drawing  two  red  
marbles  at  random  if  the  first  marble  drawn  is  not  replaced?  
 
6)  A  road  has  two  stop  lights  at  two  consecutive  intersections.  The  probability  of  getting  a  green  light  at  
the  first  intersection  is  0.6,  and  the  probability  of  getting  a  green  light  at  the  second  intersection,  given  
that  you  got  a  green  light  at  the  first  intersection,  is  0.8.  What  is  the  probability  of  getting  a  green  light  at  
both  intersections?  
 
7)  Suppose  the  two  joker  cards  are  left  in  a  standard  deck  of  cards.  One  of  the  jokers  is  red  and  the  other  
is  black.  A  single  card  is  drawn  from  the  deck  of  54  cards  but  not  returned  to  the  deck,  and  then  a  second  
card  is  drawn.  Determine  the  probability  of  drawing:  
 
a)  one  of  the  jokers  on  the  first  draw  and  an  ace  on  the  second  draw  
b)  a  numbered  card  of  any  suit  on  the  first  draw  and  the  red  joker  on  the  second  draw  
c)  a  queen  on  both  draws  
d)  any  black  card  on  both  draws  
 
Refer  to  part  3  of  4.4  lesson  for  help  with  the  following  questions  
 
8)  Tennis  great  Roger  Federer  made  63%  of  his  first  serves  in  2011  season.  When  Federer  made  his  first  
serve,  he  won  78%  of  the  points.  When  Federer  missed  his  first  serve  and  had  to  serve  again,  he  won  only  
57%  of  the  points.  Suppose  we  randomly  choose  a  point  on  which  Federer  served.    
 
a)  Start  by  creating  a  tree  diagram  to  model  the  situation.  
b)  What  is  the  probability  that  Federer  makes  the  first  serve  and  wins  the  point?  
c)  What  his  the  probability  the  he  loses  the  point?  
 
9)  Many  employers  require  prospective  employees  to  take  a  drug  test.  A  positive  result  on  this  test  
indicates  that  the  prospective  employee  uses  illegal  drugs.  However,  not  all  people  who  test  positive  
actually  use  drugs.  Suppose  that  4%  of  prospective  employees  use  drugs.  Of  the  employees  who  use  
drugs,  90%  would  test  positive.  Of  the  employees  who  don’t  use  drugs,  5%  would  test  positive.    
 
a)  Start  by  creating  a  tree  diagram  to  model  the  situation.    
b)  A  randomly  selected  prospective  employee  tests  positive  for  drugs.  What  is  the  probability  that  he  
actually  took  drugs?