Accounting For Employee Stock Options - Accelerating Convergence
Accounting For Employee Stock Options - Accelerating Convergence
convergence.
Brian Byrne, Qianru Shang and Yinqiu Zhang
January, 2018
Hull and White (2004) have developed a lattice pricing model that makes explicit reference to
parameters that are not available in Black Scholes (1973) yet are important for the valuation of
Employee Stock Options (ESOs). Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) point out that a key
weakness of the lattice approach, when applied to valuing ESOs, is the sluggish convergence
not generally experienced in trees configured to estimate plain vanilla options. Cvitanic,
Wiener and Zapatero (2008) propose a very useful closed form solution which may or may not
be endorsed by a whole host of regulatory and professional bodies. In this paper, we propose a
small refinement to Hull and White (2004), based on insights developed by Boyle and Lau
(1994) which ensures faster convergence in lattice estimation when barriers occur. Our model
provides estimates consistent with Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008). The proposed model
should also neatly fit into the rubric currently prescribed by the American Financial Accounting
Standards Board (FASB) and endorsed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
We also apply a number of truncation techniques to the lattice which removes the zero region
of the tree. We truncate the ESO lattice above the early exercise boundary, peculiar to Hull
White (2004), and dynamically specify the lattice array to spare memory and reduce estimation
time.
Email Adresses:
[email protected]
[email protected]
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1. Introduction
Rubinstein (1995) identified key hallmark features that distinguish Employee Stock Options
(ESOs) from other plain vanilla options. ESOs usually have longer maturities of 10 years. They
have vesting periods when the option cannot be exercised. The option structure is a hybrid with
a blend of European and American exercise rights.1 Departure by executives from the company
prior to vesting leads to forfeiture.2 Recipients of ESOs cannot hedge their option position
using dynamic replication or put options. ESOs cannot be viewed as trading in “complete
Hull and White (2004) developed a binomial tree approach to determine the fair value of
Employee Stock Options at the time of their issuance. Their model explicitly considered the
vesting period, the possibility that the optionee will leave the company prior to maturity and/or
vesting. The Black and Scholes (1973) model was originally developed to value European
options. SAB 107, SAB 1103 and FASB 123R all permit the use of Black and Scholes (1973)
to estimate fair value or time value when preparing company financial reports. ESOs however
typically proffer (a) a vesting period during which the call options cannot be exercised but can
be forfeited (b) that a post-vesting exercise of the option is possible even though in some
instances suboptimal (c) non-transferability of the option to third parties and (d) as being non-
hedgeable by taking a short stock position in the company stock. Optionees are not permitted
to sell their ESOs. They can however exercise the option and subsequently sell the company’s
shares to crystallise a cash pay-out. ESOs are necessarily by construction call options: to align
the interests of all stakeholders. Hull and White (2004) makes explicit conditions under which
optionees will exercise early. In practice, this behaviour is not atypical and in part may be
1
We will argue that ESOs have significant features in common with barrier options.
2
The vesting period can run up to 4 years.
3
https://www.sec.gov/interps/account/sab110.htm and more recently SAB 114.
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explained by the desire to obviate the build-up of portfolio imbalances. Hull and White (2004)
append to the Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) framework much of the guidance set forth by
FAS 123 that encouraged fair value accounting. FASB ASC 718 instructs the accountancy
profession to implement option pricing models that are consistent with (1) fair value
measurement (2) established principles of financial theory and (3) reflect all the substantive
characteristics of option remuneration. Subsequently, S.E.C. staff expressed support for the
flexibility embedded in FASB ASC 718. The Black Scholes (1973) and lattice models are
viewed as the appropriate valuation tools that comply with (1) – (3). Lattice models are
commonly rely on Black and Scholes (1973) because considerable costs are incurred in
switching to a binomial framework.4 One cost, in particular, has been well documented by
Binomial trees that embed Hull and White (2004) parameters inputs are slow to converge and
are much slower than conventional Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) trees. This imposes
nontrivial costs on analysts who wish to expedite valuation. Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero
(2008) estimate a Hull and White (2004) tree and found that even after 40,000 steps the tree
had not converged to “True”.5 In this paper, we propose a small refinement to Hull and White
(2004) based on insights developed by Boyle and Lau (1994) which ensures faster convergence
using lattice techniques. Our lattice model provides estimates that are consistent with Cvitanic,
Wiener and Zapatero (2008) without the computational costs associated with the lattice
4
Companies are permitted to choose between Black and Scholes (1973) and lattice techniques.
5
The execution speed of 3,000 steps with 2011 Mac Book pro Core i7 was clocking less than one minute. 40,000
steps was clocking close to one hour using C++ and Apple’s proprietary Xcode IDE. In comparison, Black Scholes
(1973) is not computationally intensive and executes generally without any observable lag. In the appendix, we
outline some techniques to truncate the ESO lattice and we dynamically define the binomial array.
The original pricing model proposed by Hull and White (2004) was conceived as an
“Enhanced FASB 123” model. Adhering to the notation developed by Hull and White (2004),
e was explicitly applied as an estimate of employee turnover (exit) which was used in both the
pre-vesting and the post-vesting period. The “Enhanced FASB 123” model incorporated early
exercise by assuming that this would occur automatically when the stock price was a certain
multiple M of the exercise price K. The Hull and White (2004) model reconfigures the Cox,
Ross and Rubinstein (1979) binomial tree to incorporate added conditions for calculating the
value of the option at each node.6 𝑣 denotes the vesting period expressed in years. There are N
(i) the option can be exercised in the post vesting period (𝑖𝛿𝑡 > 𝑣)
(ii) the vested option is exercised when the stock price S ≥ M*K, (𝑖𝛿𝑡 > 𝑣)
(iii) the product of the time step 𝛿𝑡 and e can be used to estimate the probability of
forfeiture in the vesting period moving from node to node (𝑖𝛿𝑡 < 𝑣).
(iv) in the post vesting period the probability 𝑒𝛿𝑡 captures the probability that the option
strike or exercise.
These conditions are imposed on the conventional Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) tree. See
Figure 2. Here again, we follow the notation set out by Hull and White (2004). At each node
of the tree, there is a specific array reference (i, j) for the respective stock price 𝑆𝑖,𝑗 in the
6
For a very intuitive approach for understanding the array mapping of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) read Gilli
and Schumann (2009), p. 4. Figure 1 here is a slightly more elaborate representation of the binomial tree
structure. We also recommend Hull (2015) to get an overview of the ESO and lattices techniques. Haug (2007)
provides VBA code to estimate a variety of binomial and trinomial trees. Benninga (2014) also provides an
overview of ESO estimation and VBA code for estimation. In the Appendix, the first C++ snippet provides a simple
Hull White (2004) implementation based on Gilli and Schumann (2009) array mapping and Benninga (2014).
7
𝑆𝑖,𝑗 denotes the stock price at node (i, j). 𝑆𝑖,𝑗 = 𝑆𝑢 𝑗 𝑑 𝑖−𝑗 can be used to estimate iteratively the node values
on the tree grid. 𝛿𝑡 = 𝑇/𝑁 where T is the full ESO maturity.
is given by 𝑓𝑖,𝑗 .
If (𝑖𝛿𝑡 ≤ 𝑣) then
The Hull and White (2004) model nests (1) – (4) in a Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979)
framework. Figure 2 deconstructs the Hull and White (2004) model, into varying domains
mapped to a standard binomial tree. (1) – (4) can be mapped to vesting and post vesting periods
with an early exercise boundary K*M posited here as a barrier. We proceed by estimating plain
vanilla trees to largely gauge the typical speeds of convergence that can be expected. In the
absence of (1) – (4), backward induction can be handled comfortably even within an
unsophisticated spreadsheet. In what follows, plain vanilla European options are juxtaposed
against a standard implementation of Hull and White (2004). A routine execution of Hull and
White (2004) can however be slow to converge (see Figure 12), so much so, the binomial tree
computational costs incurred that are likely to deter extensive use of lattice techniques.8
8
We make use of Boyle Lau (1994) specifications to improve the feasibility of ESO lattice estimation. A straight
application of Hull and White (2004) in spreadsheets can be largely impractical when a high level of accuracy is
required. The barrier produces nonlinearity error which can not be easily overcome by relentlessly increasing
the step size. In the Appendix, we add some additional improvement in terms of estimation using truncation
and by redefining the two-dimensional tree to being one dimensional. One dimensional arrays absorb much less
computer processing. In the Appendix, we elaborate somewhat on how some computer science concepts find
useful application in estimating the ESO lattice.
Estimating the binomial model using a Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) tree is quite
straightforward and convergence to a “true value” does not typically present any particular
estimation issues. 9 This type of estimation can be made in a spreadsheet or any standard
Integrated Development Environment (IDE).10 For a European option where the regular Black-
Scholes assumptions apply, we have an exact closed form solution. This is important because
Scholes. Selecting N that produces an acceptable proximity to true can be gauged by reference
to the closed form solution. Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) embeds all the main assumptions
of Black and Scholes (1973) and establishes risk neutral conditions in discrete time. Notable
contributions to the lattice literature include Boyle (1986) and Leisen and Reimer (1996). Boyle
(1986) introduced the Trinomial tree which is more flexible in structure because it permits
stock movements of up, down and no change. All else being equal, we would expect the
trinomial tree to converge with fewer steps. Also, Leisen and Reimer (1996) implement
approximations to the normal distribution using Peizer-Pratt inversions. Leisen and Reimer
(1996) work with an odd number of steps and we write our code to convert even numbers to
We set out, here initially, to estimate the value of a plain European option using a variety of
lattice models and observe the pattern of convergence to the “True” value. The Black and
8
See https://goo.gl/TU68co and https://goo.gl/BkpHbL. Valuation of Plain Vanilla options using trees does not
pose any particular difficulties in terms of slow convergence. Accuracy can be assured with a relatively low
specification for time steps.
9
We estimated our models using Excel VBA, Visual C++ and Xcode C++. We also developed a number MFC C++
apps which we will make available on request.
tree specifications and to determine convergence speed. The focus here initially will be on the
Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) tree (CRR) because it will be applied here extensively to
value the European Call, the ESO using Hull and White (2004) and Hull and White (2004)
refined for barriers. Leisen-Reimer (1996) and Trinomial trees are also developed as
analogues. 11 The CRR construction and array mapping is consistent with the structure
explained by Gilli and Schumann (2009). This will be true for the CRR, Leisen-Reimer vanilla
European and ESO trees. The latter are estimated using the Hull and White (2004) model and
subsequently we refine the Hull and White (2004) model by applying insights developed by
Boyle and Lau (1994) relating to valuing barrier options. We initially estimate the value of the
European Option with the following parameter inputs: S (Stock Price) = 100, K (Strike) = 100,
T (Maturity) = 10 years, Sigma (Volatilty) = 0.2, r (risk free rate) = 0.06.12 In Table 1, we
report the values of the Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (CRR), Leisen-Reimer (LR) and Trinomial
trees. Boyle (1986) originally proposed a Trinomial lattice.13 We note that convergence to
Black Scholes (at a low number of steps) is fastest using Leisen and Reimer (1996).
A CRR Recombining Tree is presented in Figure 1. This is consistent with the structure and
array mapping explained by Gilli and Schumann (2009).14 Each of the nodes can be obtained
by calculating iteratively:
11
Roauh and Vainberg (2007) provide a full explanation of these techniques. Also the Volopta website
http://www.volopta.com/ provides a large number of executable code implementations of tree techniques.
12
We do not however use R or Matlab code provided by Gilli and Schumann (2009). Instead, we use VBA and
C++. Benninga (2014) provides sample VBA code for estimating ESOs based on Hull White (2004). We found this
to be a good starting point. It also converges slowly to “True” based on Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008).
13
Implementations of Leisen Reimer and Trinomial models are available in Haug (2007) and Rouah and Vainberg
(2007). Hull (2015) also explains in depth Lattice estimation procedures and has a full chapter devoted to
Employee Stock Options.
14
Gilli and Schumann (2009) provide a useful primer for understanding lattices and array mapping.
Hull and White (2004) trees.15 The modified Hull and White (2004) model, we introduce later,
will also be nested in a CRR tree that follows initially the same array mapping explained by
Gilli and Schumann (2009). The main finding of interest in Table 1 relates to the convergence
behaviour of each of the trees relative to Black-Scholes: (which we take as “True”). Using a
criterion of two decimal places accuracy, we find in Table 1 that each of the trees will all round
to a value of 49.29 for the European call by 2,500 steps. N represents the number of steps. Tree
that the Leisen and Reimer (1996) tree results are visually indistinguishable from Black-
Scholes with a relatively small number of steps and only in Figure 4 when we adjust the vertical
axis can the outline of both be really observed. The Trinomial and CRR models converge in a
less rapid fashion. Applying an arbitrary criterion of 2 decimal place accuracy the Trinomial
model converges at around 1,200 steps and CRR at around 2,500 steps. This can also be
observed in Figure 5. Again, note the vertical axis has been adjusted. The convergence
behaviour of a plain vanilla option as reported in Table 1 is marked by relatively fast progress.16
In the next section, we can contrast this with the results reported in Tables 2 and 3 where ESO
convergence using Hull and White (2004) is significantly slower and spreadsheet estimation
4. Estimating the value of Employee Stock Options based on Hull and White (2004)
Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) point out that Hull and White (2004) rely on CRR
numerical methods to compute the value of the Employee Stock Option. They find that the
15
The Leisen and Reimer (1996) trees have the same array mapping. The Trinomial model has a different array
mapping.
16
Excel estimation is entirely feasible and only small lags are noted time wise in running estimations. The
much higher step range engendered in Table 2 impose longer lags and as step size increase we experienced
growth in time lags. Excel and most commercial software will tend to crash as the larger step size is invoked.
creates problems for hedging computations). Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) p. 39 of
their paper reveal that convergence to “True” of a standard binomial implementation of Hull
and White (2004) to be remarkably slow. In fact, at 40,000 steps the binomial ESO estimate
Cvitanic et al (2008) obtained was 27.9291, when the “True” value was 27.8551. That would
appear to be well beyond the 2,500 steps order of convergence we reported in Table 1 of this
paper based on CRR trees.17 This finding may help explain why in practice Accountants and
other actors subjected to current American and European regulatory regimes may be slow to
switch from using a Black Scholes type framework despite the latter being acknowledged as
flawed for the purposes of estimating the value of ESOs. To give some scale of the estimation:
when the number of time steps is equal N (counting from 0), the number of nodes in the CRR
18
tree is equal to (𝑁 + 1)(𝑁 + 2)/2 . Estimation beyond 20,000 steps becomes
computationally intensive for regular desktop computing resources and likely unrealistic for
those who have multiple option issues to frequently synthesize into Financial Reports within
short time frames. 19 This may, in part, explain the reluctance of the FASB and SEC to
ESOs. The SEC point to some theoretical evidence when providing this latitude.20
17
Direct comparisons in terms of convergence is not completely feasible. Broadie and Detemple (1996) when
estimating American options set out a benchmark of 15,000 steps to approximate true. It is clear from Figures
12 and 13 that convergence of Hull and White (2004) requires a relatively higher benchmark number of steps.
18
See Haug (2007) p.286. N = 40,000 steps would imply in excess of 800 million (i, j) nodes!!
19
In our version of Microsoft Visual Studio Community 2017, C++ code did not execute at 30,000 steps without
requests to reconfigure software specifications. Excel VBA crashed at 20,000 steps however some additional
tweaking of code would have allowed higher specifications. In the Appendix, we pursue this approach. We
provide three snippets of code that followed the evolution of our project to estimate Hull and White (2004) and
then added refinements through optimization. Our initial coding was plagued by an inability to get to an
appropriate level of accuracy within reasonable runtimes.
20
SAB Topic 14 provides some guidance “The staff notes the existence of academic literature that supports the
assertion that the Black-Scholes-Merton closed-form model, with expected term as an input, can produce
reasonable estimates of fair value.” See: https://www.sec.gov/interps/account/sabcodet14.htm
In what follows, we graft on to the Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) tree the Hull and White
(2004) conditions (i) – (iv) outlined from Section 2. We also amend the backward induction
process in the tree to embed (1) – (4) from Section 2. This is not trivial. The effect on the value
of the option is by no means inconsequential.21 In Table 2, we report the value of the Hull and
White (2004) tree using the Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) parameters S = 100, K =
100, T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06, Vesting = 2 years, M = 1.5 and e = 0.04. In contrast
to Table 1, convergence in Table 2 is much slower.22 The “True” value of 27.8551 is only
reached with a criterion of two decimal places accuracy when the number of steps in the tree
is raised to 100,000 steps. The large number of steps required to get close to convergence is
problematic.23 Figures 7, 8 and 9 make clear that convergence is slow and non-monotonic. We
also believe that this type of erratic behaviour may influence practitioners to rely more on Black
Scholes type framework despite the latter being only reliable for valuing options with European
expiry/exercise privileges. Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) point out that convergence is
not uniform, thus many estimations of the same tree are typically required to confirm that
convergence has actually taken place.24 The familiar saw tooth pattern commonly associated
with Barrier Options is evidenced in Figure 12. The Hull White (2004) ESO model is estimated
from 10 to 10,000 steps in intervals of 10. It is clear that convergence is difficult to attain, and
a very large step magnitude tree would be required to remove persistent error which manifests
21
See Figure 6. Early exercise and exit leading to forfeiture would all else being equal tend to reduce the value
of an ESO relative to a plain vanilla option.
22
We use the same notation as Hull and White (2004).
23
An accountant or financial analyst would not easily devote the necessary computing resources and time to
extract fair value if the requisite tree step size was of the order of 100,000 nodes.
24
We don’t quite know when we have got there and analysts could be conceivably forced to repeat a number
of implausibly elevated step magnitude trees to confirm actual convergence. Accountants and other
practitioners understandably may feel obliged to accept Black Scholes (1973) based methodologies to estimate
the fair value of option compensation even though the model is not entirely appropriate for ESOs. Perhaps,
“better the devil you know”.
4.2 Hull and White (2004) model specifications in Leisen-Reimer and Trinomial Trees
Likewise, from Table 3, a similar pattern of slow convergence is discernible from Leisen-
Reimer and Trinomial trees that were also adapted to embed conditions (i) – (iv) from Section
2. These adaptations reconfigure the Leisen and Reimer (1996) and Trinomial lattice structures
to take on board Hull and White (2004) ESO specifications. All else being equal, one might
expect that convergence would be swifter in these trees given their performance in Table 1 for
plain vanilla valuation. In Table 3, where Hull and White specifications are appended to each
tree, it can be noted that at 3,000 steps the ESO values are far removed from the “True” value
of 27.8551; based on Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008). The suggested parameters
common to Tables 2 and 3 do not yield “True” or close to “True” irrespective of tree
configuration. It might also be noted that the rapid convergence of Leisen and Reimer (1996)
observed in Table 1 has vanished from Table 3. It would appear that the persistent error, in this
Derman et al (1995) point out that there at least two sources of inaccuracy when modelling
options using a lattice. 26 The first derives from the fact that the lattice is a discrete time
representation of a continuous time process. As the mesh becomes finer, the level of inaccuracy
can be reduced. This we observed in Table 1, as we increased the number of steps. The second
25
The trinomial model nested with Hull and White (2004) specifications would appear to perform best. The
trinomial model has however a finer mesh and takes longer to compute relative to Cox, Ross and Rubinstein
(1979) and Leisen Reimer (1996) of the same step size.
26
Derman et al (1995) refer to “quantization error” and “specification error”. We address the latter using the
Boyle and Lau (1994) procedure.
option. 27 The Hull and White (2004) model embeds a specification for early exercise. As
mentioned previously, in Section 2: when the stock price S ≥ M*K, the vested option is
We argue here that M*K represents a form of barrier in the Hull and White (2004) model which
can be triggered at any time in the post vesting period.28 Derman et al (1995) point out that if
a barrier does not coincide with a series of horizontal nodes on the recombining tree then
systematic biases emerge in estimation. This type of ‘specification error’ is identified in Figure
10. One solution proposed by Boyle and Lau (1994) would involve aligning the tree or a series
of horizontal nodes given by 𝑆𝑖,𝑗 = 𝑆𝑢 𝑗 𝑑𝑖−𝑗 to M*K. This necessitates some manipulation of
the array mapping to produce recombined equivalent values that plot close to or at the barrier.
To correct for tree misalignment Boyle and Lau (1994) recommend that the lattice is designed
so that the barrier falls on a series of successive recombining nodes, see Figure 11. This has
the effect of placing the barrier on the nodes and ‘specification error’ as described by Derman
Boyle and Lau (1994) found that the effect of the barrier was to render convergence to be saw
tooth shaped. Typically for barrier options: a consistently increasing step size does not produce
a consistent diminution in error. Boyle and Lau (1994) advocate that the step size be restricted
to values that produce nodes that match the barrier. In other words, N, the number of steps,
should be selected so that an array of recombining nodes, in the tree, line up or nearly line up
27
Derman et al (1995) refer to this as specification error.
28
We interpret the ESO as configured by Hull and White (2004) to embed American barrier exercise privileges.
1 2
𝑁 = [(𝑚2 𝜎 2 𝑇)/ln (𝑀) ] for 𝑚 = 1,2 … … (6)
(6) should be re-estimated until a given m produces the desired or close to the desired number
of time steps consistent with M*K. The intuition behind this method is presented in Figure 11.
The Hull and White (2004) model is nested in a Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) tree. Boyle
and Lau (1994) state that for a Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) tree with N periods to maturity,
𝑇
𝑀 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝(m𝜎√𝑁 ) (7)
If the barrier does not coincide with a specified locus of nodes, monitoring will in the American
option’s framework be repetitively out of sync. (6) applies most effectively where there is a
single barrier and volatility is constant. If M varies or if the tree is not consistent with Cox,
Ross and Rubinstein (1979) then Boyle and Lau (1994) may not be appropriate.30
In Table 4, we re-estimate the Hull and White (2004) model by taking into account the
American barrier using (6). The same Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) parameters are
used as Table 2: S = 100, K = 100, T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06, Vesting = 2 years, M
= 1.5 and e = 0.04. Otherwise the only difference relative to Table 2 stems from the
relative to Table 2. At a step size of 3,000, there would appear to be a relatively stable pattern
29
For a new issuance of ESO where initially S = K i.e. the option is written at-the-money. This is typical for
ESOs.
30
The Leisen Reimer (1996) tree does not recombine iteratively to a fixed range of values. Their model tilts the
lattice so that the terminal stock prices centre towards the exercise. Placing the barrier in the Leisen Reimer
(1996) tree to rest on the recombined nodes is not straight forward.
12 seems to have been largely resolved. In Figure 13, the relatively parsimonious refinement
introduced by Boyle and Lau (1994) seems to mostly mitigate the sluggish convergence issues
identified by Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) when implementing Hull and White (2004)
in a traditional Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979) setting. The Boyle and Lau (1994)
specification outlined in (7) offers some scope particularly for actors in the professional and
regulatory bodies who default to the Black and Scholes (1973) framework by virtue of lower
computational cost. In Table 5, we alter the standard values we used so far: S = 100, K = 100,
T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06, Vesting = 2 years, M = 1.5 and e = 0.04. The third column
contains the estimations for original values. We compare the Hull White estimation relative to
size. For each successive column we re-compute these values amending a single variable e.g.
S’ denotes that we amend just a single variable in this case S moves from 100 to 120. The true
values we estimated using Cvitanic, Wiener and F. Zapatero (2008).31 Again it is clear that
HWBL values are clearly closer to True relative to the unadjusted Hull and White (2004).
Standard setters by and large have not been unquestionably rigid in asserting a specific
valuation framework for those charged with preparing company accounts and expensing
Employee Stock Options. Choice of model and parameter inputs however have nontrivial
effects and varying estimates of valuation can be asserted. This may be a source of disquiet for
the accounting profession and to regulatory actors such as the SEC.32 In this paper, we consider
the impact of step size, valuation and convergence. The inability to reach convergence within
a feasible number of steps may render lattice techniques impracticable for most practitioners.
31
We thank Professor Zvi Wiener for confirming the true values.
32
The margin of error produced may be acceptable for producing Financial Statement in the same way that
depreciation of asset estimations also necessarily must reside with a margin of error.
size. The ability of shareholders and bondholders to appraise the incentives propelling senior
executives can also be easily circumscribed by arbitrary choices within the valuation process.
In this paper, we address the problem of slow convergence and develop an efficient framework
to help make the valuation process achieve greater accuracy with smaller computational costs.
We develop the Employee Stock Option as an American Barrier and borrow established
techniques in the literature to improve implementation. In the Appendix, we improve the Hull
White Boyle Lau algorithm by making better use of computer memory. 33 The software
implementation can be made more efficient by defining the array mapping differently for the
lattice. This will involve truncating both the zero region and barrier region. We minimise the
runtime required for binomial pricing by taking the two-dimensional tree as outlined in Figure
1 and storing it as a one-dimensional array. This software implementation dispenses with the
33
Some readers may prefer to read the appendix separately from the rest of the paper or not at all. The
biggest improvement in estimation comes from adapting the Boyle Lau (1996) specification to Hull White
(2004). We attempt in the appendix, to squeeze out some additional efficiencies in terms of run-time by
making better use of memory. Some practitioners may appreciate these additional gains in efficiency
particularly where the humble spreadsheet is the main pricing engine.
Employee Stock Options have greatly expanded the way corporations can remunerate
employees. The popularity of these exotic instruments, in part, can be explained by a desire of
firms to more deftly craft incentives to maximise shareholder value and retain staff with
strategic skills and know-how. Employee Stock Options moreover provide a useful resonance
in terms of compensation: they permit staff to enjoy windfall gains when corporations are best
placed to share the spoils of stock price increases. As the corporation’s stock price declines,
this largess can be removed without overtly spiting personnel: reducing pay where the key
catalyst is a market response rather than a vindictive boss. This expanded remuneration toolbox
however brings with it, the necessity to determine value and communicate contingency costs
that are likely to be incurred by shareholders. Valuing the potential costs to corporations is
complicated because ESOs are highly exotic with a blend of European, American and barrier
exercise features that alter during different phases of vesting and post vesting. A large number
of Regulatory and Accounting actors effectively agree that fair value is a fundamental norm
that should be adhered to and conveyed in Financial Reports. The standard techniques endorsed
by the SAB 107, SAB 110 and FAS 123R include Black Scholes (1973) and lattice
frameworks. Black Scholes (1973) was developed, in principle, to value only European
Options. Employee Stock Options however feature a highly idiosyncratic blend of exercise
privileges. All else being equal, one might expect a lattice approach would be relied upon
because trees putatively model the many nuances embedded in the granting and vesting of
ESOs. Hull and White (2004) have expounded a lattice pricing model, (they referred to it as
“our Enhanced FASB 123 model”) that makes explicit reference to parameters omitted from
Black Scholes (1973). In this paper, we examined a key weakness identified by Cvitanic,
Wiener and Zapatero (2008) in relation to the lattice approach when applied to ESOs. Lattice
models when applied to ESO valuation can be extremely sluggish in terms of convergence. If
Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) propose a very useful closed form solution which may
be ultimately endorsed by the standard setters. In the meantime, we propose a small refinement
to Hull and White (2004), based on insights developed by Boyle and Lau (1994) which ensures
faster convergence in lattice estimation. Our model provides estimates consistent with
Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) and consistent with a tree developed with a much finer
mesh of up to 100,000 steps. The proposed model we develop in this paper has the advantage
of neatly fitting into the rubric currently prescribed by the American Financial Accounting
Standards Board (FASB) and endorsed by staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC). It is also a practicable model that can be programmed into spreadsheets or any standard
IDE, executed and converges within a moderate number of steps. This small refinement can
help obviate the need to apply Black and Scholes (1973) and heroically hope for the best. It
furthermore reduces the potential risk that an arbitrary time step can be introduced to yield a
desired fair value for the option. In the Appendix, we identify a small number of techniques
that help make better use of computer resources and this further enhances the viability of
Table 1: Convergence occurs gradually as we increase the number of steps. We compare the
value of the Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (CRR) and Leisen Reimer (LR) trees using the
parameters S = 100, K = 100, T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06. We also use the same
parameters for the Trinomial tree (Tri) and Black and Scholes method (BS). We note that
convergence to Black and Scholes is fastest using Leisen Reimer. The Black Scholes (1973) is
developed here as being at the limit ‘true’ because it constitutes a continuous time model.
Table 2: Convergence occurs at a much slower pace when compared to the results for the
regular CRR type estimation in Table 1. We compare the value of the original Hull and White
(2004) HW with Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) (i.e. the True Value benchmark) using
parameters S = 100, K = 100, T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06, Vesting = 2 years, M = 1.5
and e = 0.04. The results of Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008) serve as a yardstick. To
implement Hull and White (2004), we graft onto the CRR tree conditions (i) - (iv) from Section
2. To provide some sense of how slow convergence is: note that even with an onerous 100,000
steps, we still have not reached two decimal places of accuracy. The first snippet of C++ code
in the Appendix can be used to generate the estimates above.
Table 3: We re-compute table 2 with the same parameters as Table 1 but we adapt Leisen
Reimer (HW LR) and Trinomial lattices (HW Tri) to embed condition (i) – (iv) from Section
2, as before. Here again it is noticeable that convergence is very slow to the True Value
27.8551. Interestingly, although Leisen Reimer had previously converged quickly, here it
appears to converge at a much slower pace.
Table 4: We re-compute Table 2. Our key insight here is to interpret the Hull and White (2004)
model as incorporating an American Barrier Option Specification. In this instance, the Hull
and White (2004) tree is adapted so that M*K, sits as close as possible on the locus of
recombining nodes. See Figures 10 and 11. We use a Boyle Lau (1994) procedure to achieve
Hull-White-Boyle-Lau (HWBL). See (6) below. The same Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero
(2008) parameters are used as before: S = 100, K = 100, T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06,
Vesting = 2 years, M = 1.5 and e = 0.04. Otherwise the only difference relative to Table 2
stems from the specification outlined by Boyle and Lau (1994). Convergence noticeably
improves relative to Table 2.
1 2
𝑁 = [(𝑚2 𝜎 2 𝑇)/ln (𝑀) ] for 𝑚 = 1,2 … … (6)
Table 6: The root mean squared RMS relative error is presented above. We apply the same
measurement as developed by Broadie and Detemple (1996). The estimation error of HW and
and HWBL are obtained from the data presented in Table 5. Average relative deviation is
defined as the arithmetic mean of relative deviations of 100 samples.
Figure 4: Leisen Reimer binomial trees speedily converges to Black Scholes with four decimal
place accuracy within 50 steps. The same parameter input values as Table 1 are used. The
horizontal axis measures the number of steps.
49.286
49.282
49.28
49.278
49.276
49.274
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Number of steps
CRR LR Trinomial BS
Figure 5: (CRR) and Trinomial trees converge to Black Scholes more slowly than Leisen and
Reimer (1996). We use the same parameter values as Table 1. The Leisen and Reimer (1996)
estimates are subsumed into the Black Scholes estimates as they bear no discernible difference
in the graph.
50
40
Value of BS and HW
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Years of Vesting
Figure 6: The Hull and White (2004) ESO model is estimated using the Cvitanic, Wiener and
Zapatero (2008) parameters S = 100, K = 100, T = 10 years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06, M = 1.5.
However e ≠ 0.04, rather e = 0 and Vesting = 1,2,3,4…..10 years. As the Vesting approaches
maturity (i.e. T = 10 years), we find that the Hull and White (2004) ESO model reduces to a
CRR tree or Black Scholes value. Early exercise and exit leading to forfeiture, would all else
being equal, tend to reduce the value of an ESO relative to a plain vanilla European option
where the dividend is zero. The Hull and White (2004) model can vary substantially from Black
and Scholes (1973) owing to early exercise and forfeiture.
30.5000
30.0000
29.5000
29.0000
28.5000
28.0000
27.5000
0 100 200 300 400 500
Number of steps
HW True Value
Figure 7: convergence of Hull and White (2004) to “True” is not clear-cut. This graph
illustrates the output reported in Table 2. The non-monotonic nature of convergence implies
that Hull and White (2004) has to be re-estimated many times with an ever-higher number of
steps to determine fair value. Convergence within the 500-step range looks unlikely.
28.5000
28.4000
28.3000
ESO values
28.2000
28.1000
28.0000
27.9000
27.8000
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Number of steps
HW True Value
Figure 8: The Hull and White (2004) ESO model is estimated with the parameters provided in
Table 2. Convergence does not appear feasible with N < 3,000 steps. The values for the ESO
reported would appear to converge and then subsequently diverge. This non-monotonic
behaviour confounds because it becomes difficult to determine the relative proximity to “True”
without imposing a shift in the scale of steps. We will shortly see that even at 100,000 steps it
may not be possible to assume that convergence is guaranteed.
30
29.5
ESO Values
29
28.5
28
27.5
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
HW True Value Steps
Figure 11: If the M*K barrier falls on the grid nodes i.e. falls on successive recombining nodes
then ‘Specification error’ as explained by Derman et al (1995) can be reduced. In estimating
the value of the ESO using the CRR tree we tweak the step size by choosing N to fuse the
barrier as close as possible to a horizontal locus of tree nodes. If array mappings are designed
so that a series of 𝑆𝑖,𝑗 line up with M*K, then bias can be reduced. Boyle and Lau (1994)
iteratively re-estimate for successive values of m to yield the desired N or integer closest to the
desired N:
1 2
𝑁 = [(𝑚2 𝜎 2 𝑇)/ln (𝑀) ] for 𝑚 = 1,2 … … (6)
which is shown as red marked points in the line chart.
Black, F. and M. Scholes (1973): “The pricing of options and corporate liabilities.” The Journal
of Political Economy, pp. 637–654.
Boyle, P. and S. Lau (1994): “Bumping up against the barrier with the binomial method.”
Journal of Derivatives, 1, pp. 6–14.
Cox, J., S. Ross, and M. Rubinstein (1979): “Option Pricing: A Simplified Approach.” Journal
of Financial Economics, Volume 7, Issue 3, pp. 229–263.
Cvitanic, J., Z. Wiener, and F. Zapatero (2008): “Analytic pricing of executive stock options.”
Review of Financial Studies, 21, pp. 683–724.
Derman, E., I. Kani, D. Ergener, and I. Bardhan. (1995): ‘‘Enhanced Numerical Methods for
Options with Barrier.’’ Financial Analysts Journal, November–December, pp. 65–74.
Hull, J. (2015): Options, futures, and other derivatives. Pearson Education, New York.
Hull, J. and White, A. (2004): “How to value employee stock options.” Financial Analysts
Journal, 60, pp. 114–119.
Kim, I. J., and S. J. Byun, (1994): “Optimal Exercise Boundary in a Binomial Option Pricing
Model.” Journal of Financial Engineering, 3, pp. 137-158.
Leisen, D., and M. Reimer, (1996): “Binomial models for option valuation – examining and
improving convergence.” Applied Mathematical Finance, 3(4), pp. 319–46.
Rouah, F. and, G. Vainberg, (2007): Option Pricing Models and Volatility Using Excel VBA.
John Wiley & Sons, London.
Rubinstein, M. (1995): “On the accounting valuation of employee stock options,” Journal of
Derivatives, 3, pp. 8-24.
In this Appendix, we follow in part the techniques outlined by Curran (1995) to define,
demarcate and ultimately truncate regions within the binomial lattice. In particular, we identify
a zero region and the barrier region of the Hull White ESO lattice that can be used to leverage
some efficiency. We also implement a technique suggested by Broadie and Detemple (1996)
to optimise the mapping array. Most implementations of binomial trees including Benninga
(2014) define a two-dimensional lattice.34 This approach is the most intuitive and can be easily
expounded because it follows the tree mapping and grid references observed in Figure 1.
Broadie and Detemple (1996) in their Appendices B.1 and B.2 state however that it is not
necessary to store the entire tree in memory. They stress that only information related to the
contemporaneous time-period/time-step is required marked out by the Green Oval shapes in
Figure A2. It is possible to enhance the Hull White Boyle Lau procedure by configuring the
backward recursion such that at any one-time computer memory is only being used to estimate
a single column of option time values. Consider the static binomial option tree below
Figure A1
34
See the first snippet of code below.
The static Hull White Boyle Lau of Figure A1 defines a two-dimensional Static Binomial
Option Pricing Tree, which allocates an independent storage space for the option time values
of every node.35 The dynamic Hull White Boyle Lau model in Figure A2 is a one-dimensional
Dynamic Binomial Option Pricing Tree, which exhibits a Dynamic Substitution Process.36 In
the option pricing process of backward induction, the option values we calculate at any time
step would substitute the option values at its previous time steps to be stored in the same
space.37 Consider a n-step binomial tree. The static binomial tree requires (𝑛 + 1)(𝑛 + 2)/2
storage spaces. The dynamic binomial tree only needs 𝑛 + 1 storage spaces which reduces by
decrements of one with each successive backward recursion. This optimization effectively
reduces the unnecessary data storage.
35
We provide a C++ implementation for the Static Two-Dimensional tree without Boyle Lau below. This code is
slow and is only recommended here to serve as a benchmark for the faster Dynamic Truncated HWBL model. It
may additionally serve as a didactic tool to help illuminate the main steps of setting out and estimating ESOs
within the binomial framework.
36
We provide VBA and C++ code to run this Dynamic One-Dimension tree with the Boyle Lau specification. This
code is optimised with lower runtimes and faster convergence.
37
Each step time period can be identified above by the passing from one green ovoid to the previous.
Figure A3
We truncate the “Redundant early exercise” region (i.e. the upper triangle) in which option
values of nodes are equal to their intrinsic values and the “zero” region (lower triangle) in
which the option value of each node is zero. The valuation in these two regions are unnecessary
since they will not influence materially the backward induction or values passing back through
to produce the present value of the option. In Figure A3, we identify four different valuation
regions. This similarly follows the logic proposed by Curran (1995). Curran (1995) proposed
the Diagonal method which draws on the Kim and Byun (1994) deduction that the early
boundary of an American option can be identified in the binomial structure. Pinpointing exactly
the early exercise boundary speeds up estimation time because it removes the necessity to
constantly test each node. The stopping region and continuing region can be defined around
the boundary.38 Curran notes that once the option is exercised, it cannot be exercised again.
Importantly, here with Hull White (2004), we know the early exercise because this is made
explicit in the model. Note that in Figure A3 above X marks the location of the exercise (K).
Hull and White (2004) posit that early exercise occurs once the Stock price passes through the
M*K boundary where M is defined as the multiple parameter. This simplifies the analysis and
allows the lattice to be segmented. The option value of the horizontal layer of red nodes is
captured by the intrinsic value defined by M*K. The option values of the diagonal layer of
green nodes are all zero. This leaves the blue nodes and yellow nodes to be valued by backward
induction. The blue nodes still possess the passive early exercise condition applying by virtue
of employees terminating employment. The vesting period does not permit early exercise: only
forfeiture.
In the table below, we provide some insight into how these optimisations speed up computation
times in Excel™ for both the Dynamic Hull White Boyle Lau implementation relative to the
static Hull White Boyle Lau tree.
38
We borrow these terms form Kim and Byun (1994).
Table A1
We take again parameters values for the ESO we used before. We set S = 100, K = 100, T = 10
years, Sigma = 0.2, r = 0.06, Vesting = 2 years, M = 1.5 and e = 0.04. The computation time
generated in Excel™ at different number of steps is shown using the format mm:ss.00. The
laptop we used for computation was a DELL Latitude E5470 with Intel’s Core i3 processors.
As can be seen from Table A1, the dynamic Hull White Boyle Lau implementation is
approximately four to five times faster than the static Hull White Boyle Lau implementation.
The main gain in terms convergence is obtained by imposing Boyle Lau. Nevertheless, a
significant reduction in runtime can be engineered by optimizing the code. The Dynamic
Truncated HWBL estimation can potentially afford some relative improvement which should
facilitate work flow. There is respectively a VBA and C++ implementation of the Dynamic
Truncated HWBL model below. Excel™ spreadsheets can be automated using VBA and
spreadsheet modelling is relied upon heavily by industry practitioners. C++ permits higher
speed but also permits some robustness to be established. A number of online C++ compilers
expand the scope of implementation.39 Finally, the code below can be used as a check for
Cvitanic, Wiener and Zapatero (2008). To date, this closed form solution has not been
referenced in the Accounting Standards. We feel it is worthy of a second look and practitioners
may perhaps feel comfortable with making some further use of their contribution if a relatively
cheap testing technology were available. The VBA and C++ code presented below for the
Dynamic trees go some way to provide an additional test of robustness.
39
https://www.onlinegdb.com/online_c++_compiler
double ESOs_Binomial(void)
{
double Spot = 100; // Spot Price
double K = 100; // Strike Price
double Vest = 2; // Vesting period (in years)
double T = 10; // Maturity in Years
double Sigma = 0.2; // Volatility
double DivRate = 0.0; // Dividend rate
double ExitRate = 0.04; // Exit rate
double Multiple = 1.5; // Multiple: Stock/strike ratio
double InterestR = 0.06; // Interest Rate
double n = 500; // no longer subdivision
int i, j;
int NT = (int)(n); //the depth of binomial tree, also means the dimension of the array.
//Early exercise when: stock price > (multiple * exercise after vesting)
//Calculate the option price from second last period
for (i = (NT - 1); i >= 0; i--)
{
for (j = 0; j <= i; j++)
{
// Main program
int main()
{
clock_t start_time, end_time;
start_time = clock();
cout << "The ESO value of Binomial is: " << ESOs_Binomial() << endl;
end_time = clock();
cout << " " << start_time << " " << end_time << " " << (end_time - start_time) << endl;
cout << " " << start_time << " " << end_time << " " << (end_time - start_time) / (double)CLOCKS_PER_SEC << " seconds" << endl;
system("PAUSE");
ReDim Opt(n)
dt = T / n
r = Exp(Interest * dt)
u = Exp(Sigma * Sqr(dt))
d = 1 / u
p = (Exp((Interest - Divrate) * dt) - d) / (u - d)
VestInt = Int(Vest / dt) 'The last column in the vesting period
NumZero = Int((Log(X / Stock) / Log(u) + n) / 2) 'The last zero node from the bottom at the maturity
NumStopping = Application.Ceiling((Log(X * Multiple / Stock) / Log(u) + n) / 2, 1) 'The first early exercise node at the maturity
Finish = NumStopping - 1
Dyn_Trun_HWBL = Opt(0)
End Function
dt = T / n;
r = exp(Interest * dt);
u = exp(Sigma * sqrt(dt));
d = 1 / u;
p = (exp((Interest - Divrate) * dt) - d) / (u - d);
VestInt = int(Vest / dt); //The last column in the vesting period
NumZero = int((log(K / S) / log(u) + n) / 2); //The last zero node from the bottom at the maturity
NumStopping = ceil((log(K * Multiple / S) / log(u) + n) / 2); //The first early exercise node at the maturity
Finish = NumStopping - 1;
vector<double> Opt;
//resize the column
Opt.resize(n + 1);
cout << "The ESO price is " << DynTrunHWBL(S, K, T, Vest, Interest, Sigma, Divrate, Exitrate, Multiple, n) << endl;
end_time = clock();
cout << " " << start_time << " " << end_time << " " << (end_time - start_time) << endl;
cout << " " << start_time << " " << end_time << " " << (end_time - start_time) / (double)CLOCKS_PER_SEC << " seconds" << endl;
//system("PAUSE");
// https://www.youtube.com/c/BrianByrneFinance
}