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Assignments For Week 2-Revised Version

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11 views

Assignments For Week 2-Revised Version

Uploaded by

aishwaryaanand2003
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment for week 2

1. Please respond to the weekly forum 2 provided in Week 2.


2. Forecast demands using weighted moving average. Please apply weights of 0.3 for the most
recent period, then 0.4, then 0.3
Period Demand Forecast
1 6
2 12
3 14
4 18
5 22
6 25
7 28

3. Given the following data:

Prepare a forecast using smoothing constant a = 0.40.


a) Subjective estimate (for this example, use 60).
b) First actual value (naïve approach).
Period Actual Forecast
1 63
2 52
3 56
4 62

4. Given the following data:


c) What are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-5 using a =0.7?
d) Use naïve approach for 1st week
Week Demands
1 830
2 765
3 630
4 640
5

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5. Predict quarterly demand for a certain loveseat. The series has both trend and seasonality and
the Quarterly relatives are: Q1= 1.20, Q2 = 1.10, Q3 = 0.75, Q4 =0.95. If the trend equation equals
to yt=124+7.5t (t = quarter 15), Predict demand for quarter 2 (where t 15 = quarter 2).

6. Given the following data, compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the following data. Then, please
compute the standard deviation of forecast error using the first eight months.

Months Demand Forecast


1 210 222
2 240 235
3 230 225
4 240 245
5 280 265
6 222 250
7 220 220
8 250 273

7. Below are a pharmacy’s actual sales and forecasted demand for a certain prescription drug for 5
months. How accurate is their forecast? Calculate MAD and MSE and create a control chart.

Months Actual sales Forecasted demand


1 215 n/a
2 235 255
3 200 203
4 305 325
5 310 320

8. Freight car loadings during a 14-week period at a port are:


Week Number Week Number
1 232 8 385
2 250 9 420
3 270 10 465
4 262 11 485
5 320 12 498
6 352 13 520
7 375 14 555

a) Compute a linear trend line for freight car loadings using of Excel’s Trendline, with display
Equation on chart option.
b) Use the trend equation to predict loadings for weeks 15 and 16.

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9. Given the following data, determine the total annual cost of making with each of process A
and B and of buying. Estimated demand is 8,500 units a year. The operations manager has said
that it would be possible to achieve a 12 percent reduction in the fixed cost of Process B and a
12 percent reduction in B’s variable cost per unit. Would that be enough to change your answer
if the estimated annual cost to achieve those savings was $5,000?
Make
Process A Process B Process C
Variable cost per unit $49 $51 $50
Annual fixed cost $42000 $34000
Transportation cost per unit $2

10. A manager must decide on delivery alternatives. There are two carriers, A and B. Both offer a
two-day rate. In addition, A offers a three-day rate and a nine-day rate, and B offers a four-day
rate and a seven-day rate. Three hundred boxes are to be delivered and the freight cost for the
whole lot for each option is given below. Annual holding cost is 20 percent of unit cost, and
each box has a cost of $120. Assume 365 days per year. Which delivery alternative would you
recommend?
Cashier A Cashier B
Options Freight Cost Options Freight Cost
2 days $580 2 days $510
3 days $520 4 days $440
9 days $450 7 days $400

11. Analyze the following data to determine the total annual cost of making or buying a part.
Freight Cost Make Buy
Expected annual quantity 20,000 units 20,000 units
Variable cost per unit $5.00 $6.00
Annual fixed costs $30,000

12. Multiple choice question: The use of simpler linear regression analysis assumes that:
a) Variations around the line are non-random.
b) A straight line will be determined that maximizes the sum of deviations of the data points.
c) Predictions are to be made only within the range of observed values of the predictor
variable.

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d) Deviations around the line are not normally distributed.
e) Predictions can be made outside the range of observed values of the predictor variable.

13. Please answer the following True or False questions.


a) When error values fall outside the limits of a control chart, this signals a need for corrective
action. (True/False)
b) When all errors plotted on a control chart are either all positive or all negative, this shows
that the forecasting technique is performing adequately. (True/False)
c) A random pattern of errors within the limits of a control chart signals a need for corrective
action. (True/False)

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