INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE

METHODS

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga

9th September, 2024

The sky is not the Limit

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Random Variables
Definition
A Random variable is a function that assigns a real number to
each outcome of an experiment. recall the probability of
rolling a die:

Figure: random variable

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Random Variables
Definition
A Random variable is a function that assigns a real number to
each outcome of an experiment. recall the probability of
rolling a die:

Figure: random variable

toss 2 coins, toss 3 coins

Think about tossing 2 coins, With reference to the sample
space assign values to the outcomes. Refer to outcomes of
getting Heads.
Think about tossing 3 coins, With reference to the sample
space assign values to the outcomes. Refer to outcomes of
Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Types of Random Variables

We have Two types of random variables namely Discrete and

Continuous random variables.
Discrete random variable
A random Variables is said to be discrete of it takes up
counting numbers that is if we can assign either Natural or
Whole numbers to it. The three above examples are examples
of discrete random variable.
Examples
(a) number of complaints per day
(b) number of TV’s in a household
(c) number of rings before the phone is answered

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Continuous

Continuous random variable

A random Variables is said to be continuous if it takes up
values in an interval, that is if we can assign a value from the
set of real numbers. For example the height of students in a
particular class lies between 5 meters to 7 meters.
Examples
(a) thickness of an item
(b) time required to complete a task
(c) temperature of a solution
(d) height, in inches

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Probability Mass Function (PMF)
refer to the tossing of 3 coins examples:

Figure: random variable

The probability mass function is: P(X = x). i.e

1 3 3 1
P(X = 0) = , P(X = 1) = , P(X = 2) = , P(X = 3) =
8 8 8 8
.Note: PMF is strictly for Discrete Random Variable.
Note: PDF is strictly for Continuous Random Variable.
Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Probability Distribution

Def
A probability distribution refers to a list of a random variable
with the corresponding probability. Similar to a frequency
distribution a probability distribution shows as how
probabilities are spread for a random variable.

Figure: random variable

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

 Figure: random variable

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Discrete random Variable

A Discrete random variable X has the following distribution:

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) k 2k 3k 3k 5k k
(a) Find the vale of k.
(b) Draw a table giving the probability distribution of X .

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Questions

Task
Consider the Discrete Probability Distribution:
x 1 2 3 4
P(X=x) 0.2 0.16 0.128 t
(a) Complete the probability distribution.
(b) Find:
(i) P(X = 1).
(ii) P(X = 3).
(iii) P(X ≥ 2).
(iv) P(X > 3).
(v) P(X ≤ 4).

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Questions
Task
Consider the Discrete Probability Distribution:
x 0 2 4 6 8
P(X=x) 0.17 0.34 t 0.20 0.05
(a) Complete the probability distribution.
(b) What is the probability that the random variable X is
greater than 4?
(c) What is the probability that the random variable X is less
than 6?
(d) Find:
(i) P(X = 4).
(ii) P(X ≤ 2).
(iii) P(X ≥ 4).
(iv) P(2 ≤ X ≤ 6).

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Expected Value and Standard Deviation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution

Expected Value (E(X))

This is the weighted average:
n
X
E (x) = xi P(xi ),
x=1

Where: where:
E (x) = Expected value of the random variable,
xi = Values of the random variable.
P(xi ) = Probability of the random variable having the value of
xi

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Continuation

The standard deviation (E(X))

This is the weighted average:
n 
X 2
σx = xi − E (x) P(xi ),
x=1

where:
σx = This is the standard deviation for the random variable x.
E (x) = Expected value of the random variable,
xi = Values of the random variable.
P(xi ) = Probability of the random variable having the value of
xi

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Examples

(1) At a fair, tickets are drawn to win or lose money. Here is

the probability distribution that represents the situation:

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Discrete Probability Distributions
There are several types of discrete probability distributions,
but will focus on these:
(a) Binomial Distribution.
(b) Poison Distribution.
Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution is obtained from a probability
experiment called a binomial experiment. The experiment
must satisfy these conditions:
(1) Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that
can be reduced to two outcomes. The outcomes are
usually considered as a success or a failure.
(2) There is a fixed number of trials.
(3) The outcomes of each trial are independent of each other.
(4) The probability of a success must remain the same for
each trial. Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Continuation

Formula
In order to determine the probability of a success for a single
trial of a probability experiment, the following formula can be
used.
P(X ) =n Cx × p x × (1 − p)n−x
where
n = the total number of trials (sample size).
x = the number of successes (1, 2, 3, ..., n).
p = the probability of a success.
q = (1 − p) probability of failure.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Example

Example
(1) A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting
two heads and a tail in any given order.
(2) A die is rolled 3 times; find the probability of getting
exactly one five.
(3 ) An archer hits the bull’s eye 80% of the time. If he shoots
5 arrows, find the probability that he will get 4 bull’s eyes.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Other Questions

Task
(1) A student takes a 5-question true–false quiz. Since the
student has not studied, he decides to flip a coin to
determine the answers. What is the probability that the
student guesses exactly 3 out of 5 correctly?
(2)

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

The Mean and Standard Deviation for a Binomial
Distribution
The Mean and Standard Deviation for a Binomial Distribution
expected value or the mean of a binomial distribution.

µ = E (x) = np
. The standard deviation of the binomial distribution is given
by:
√
σ= npq
The Variance of the binomial distribution is given by:

σ 2 = npq

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Examples
Twelve cards are selected from a deck and each card is
replaced before the next one is drawn. Find the average
number of diamonds.

Questions
A die is rolled 180 times. Find the standard deviation of the
number of threes.
Task
An archer hits the bull’s eye 80% of the time. If he shoots 100
arrows, find the mean, Variance and standard deviation of the
number of bull’s eyes.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Poison Distribution
This distribution is used when the variable occurs over a
period of time, volume, area, etc. It is also used to model rare
events.
(1) The number of blinds born in a town in a particular year.
(2) Number of mistakes committed in a typed page.
(3) The number of students scoring very high marks in all
subjects
(4) The number of plane accidents in a particular week.
(5) The number of defective screws in a box of 100,
manufactured by a reputed company.
(6) Number of suicides reported in a particular day.
(7) It can be used to describe the arrivals of airplanes at an
airport.
(8) the number of phone calls per hour for a 911 operator.
(9) or the number of white blood cells on a fixed area.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

To find the Probability
The probability of x successes is:

e −λ λx
P(X ) =
x!
where e is a mathematical constant e = 2.7183 and λ is the
mean or expected value of the variable (i.e the average
number of successes). x is the number of successes

Example
(1) If there are 150 typographical errors randomly distributed
in a 600-page manuscript, find the probability that any
given page has exactly two errors.
(2) A hotline with a toll-free number receives an average of 4
calls per hour. For any given hour, find the probability
that it will receive exactly 6 calls.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Continuous Distributions Functions

Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is one of the most widely used
distribution and it has the following properties.
(1) It is bell-shaped (It has a single peak).
(2) The mean, median, and mode are at the center of the
distribution.
(3) It is symmetric about the mean. (This means that it is a
reflection of itself if a mean was placed at the center (i.e
at the peak).)
(4) It is continuous; i.e., there are no gaps.
(5) It never touches the x axis (i.e it is asymptotic).
(6) The total area under the curve is 1 or 100%.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Refer to the figure below:

Figure: Normal Distribution

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Different Normal distributions depending on the value of µ
and σ.

Figure: Different Normal Distributions

The Probability is measured as the Area under the Curve as

shown below:

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Same Mean different Standard Deviations

Figure: Normal Distribution

Same Standard Deviations and different Means.

Figure: Normal Distribution

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS
 Figure: Normal Distribution

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below

Figure: Normal Distribution

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

What can we say about the distribution of values around the
mean? There are some general rules:

Figure: Normal Distribution

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

 Figure: Normal Distribution

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Important Rules

(1) If a value is about 2 or more standard deviations away

from the mean in a normal distribution, then it is far from
the mean.
(2) The chance that a value that far or farther away from the
mean is highly unlikely, given that particular mean and
standard deviation.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Standard Normal Distribution

Standard Normal
Let X be random variable which follows normal distribution
with mean µ and variance s 2 . The mean is zero and the
standard deviation is one. This is the standard normal
distribution that is used to solve real problems. It is defined by:
x −µ
Z=
σ
, Where Z ∼ N(0, 1)

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

How to Read the Z Table
(1) Z > 0.0.
(2) 0 < Z < 2.5.
(3) −2.5 < Z < 0.
(4) 1.25 < Z < 2.38.
(5) Z > 1.86.
(6) Z < −1.25.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Questions
(1) A normal population has a mean of 12.2 and a standard
deviation of 2.5:
(i) Compute the z value associated with 14.3.
(ii) What propotion of the population is between 12.2 and
14.3?
(iii) What proportion of the population is less than 10.0?
(2) A recent study of the wages of maintenance crew for a
major company showed that the mean hourly wages was
K165, with a standard deviation of K35. If we select a
crew member at random, what is the probability that the
crew members earns:
(i) Between K165 and K200 per hour?
(ii) More than K200 per hour.
(iii) Less than K150 per hour.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS

Task
The mean of a normal distribution is K400. The standard
deviation is K10:
(i) What is the area between K415 and the mean of K400.
(ii) What is the area between the mean and K395.
(iii) What is the probability of selecting a value at random and
discovering that it has a valueof less than K395.
(iv) What is the probability of selecting a value at random and
discovering that it has a value of more than K450.

Lecturer: Ms Mtonga INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS