Multivariate Fréchet Copulas and Conditional Value-At-Risk
Multivariate Fréchet Copulas and Conditional Value-At-Risk
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WERNER HÜRLIMANN
and the upper conditional value-at-risk (CVaR+ ) to the confidence level α, defined by
CVaR+
α [X] = E X | X > VaRα [X] . (1.2)
The VaR quantity represents the maximum possible loss, which is not exceeded with
the probability α. The CVaR+ quantity is the conditional expected loss given that the
loss strictly exceeds its value-at-risk. Next, consider the α-tail transform X a of X with
distribution
0, x < VaRα [X],
FX α (x) = FX (x) − α (1.3)
, x ≥ VaRα [X].
1−α
Rockafellar and Uryasev [44] define conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) to the confidence
level α as the expected value of the α-tail transform, that is, by
The obtained measure is a coherent risk measure in the sense of Artzner et al. [4, 5] and
coincides with CVaR+ in the case of continuous distributions. It is well known that the
VaR measure is not coherent. For simplicity, we restrict throughout the attention to the
case of continuous distributions and identify CVaR with CVaR+ . For portfolios of risks,
we define a multivariate conditional value-at-risk vector measure, whose components
coincide for the multivariate linear Spearman copula with the CVaR measures of the
risk components of the portfolio (Theorem 6.1). This yields a “fair” risk allocation in the
sense that each risk component becomes allocated to its coherent univariate conditional
value-at-risk measure.
A more detailed outline of the content follows. Based on the method of copulas
summarized in Section 2.1, we recall in Section 2.2 the construction of parametric fam-
ilies of multivariate copulas using mixtures of independent conditional distributions.
Following this approach, it is first necessary to focus on a simple but sufficiently flex-
ible one-parameter family of bivariate copulas, called linear Spearman copula, which
is similar but not identical to the convex family of Fréchet [23] and is introduced in
Section 3.1. The analytical evaluation of the distribution and stop-loss transform of
MULTIVARIATE FRÉCHET COPULAS AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK 347
2.1. The method of copulas. Though copulas have been introduced since Sklar [48],
their use in insurance and finance is more recent. Textbooks treating copulas include
those by Hutchinson and Lai [29], Joe [30], Nelsen [41], and Drouet Mari and Kotz [17].
Recall that the copula representation of a continuous multivariate distribution al-
lows for a separate modeling of the univariate margins and the dependence struc-
ture. Denote by Mn := Mn (F1 , . . . , Fn ) the class of all continuous multivariate random
variables (X1 , . . . , Xn ) with given marginals Fi of Xi . If F denotes the multivariate dis-
tribution of (X1 , . . . , Xn ), then the copula associated with F is a distribution function
C : [0, 1]n → [0, 1] that satisfies
F (x) = C F1 x1 , . . . , Fn xn , x = x1 , . . . , x n ∈ R n . (2.1)
1 1
ρS = 12 · C(u, v) − uv du dv. (2.5)
0 0
The latter parameter will completely describe the bivariate dependence in our construc-
tion. When extreme values are involved, tail dependence should also be measured.
Definition 2.2. The coefficient of (upper) tail dependence of a couple (X, Y ) of con-
tinuous random variables is defined by
provided a limit λ ∈ [0, 1] exists. If λ ∈ (0, 1], this defines the asymptotic dependence
(in the upper tail), while if λ = 0, this defines the asymptotic independence.
Tail dependence is an asymptotic property. Its calculation follows easily from the
relation
1 − 2u + C(u, u)
λ = λX,Y = lim . (2.7)
u→1− 1−u
∂Cij
Fj|i xj xi = F i xi , F j xj (2.8)
∂ui
MULTIVARIATE FRÉCHET COPULAS AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK 349
are well defined. The n-variate distribution such that the random variables Xj , j = i,
are conditionally independent, given Xi , is contained in F Ci and is defined by
xi
F (i) (x) = Fj|i xj t · dFi (t). (2.9)
−∞
j=i
n
n
C u1 , . . . , u n = λi C (i) u1 , . . . , un , 0 ≤ λi ≤ 1, λi = 1, (2.10)
i=1 i=1
is again an n-variate copula, which, by appropriate choice, may satisfy the desirable
properties.
For θ ∈ [0, 1], this copula is family B11 in Joe [30, page 148]. It represents a mixture
of perfect dependence and independence. If X and Y are uniform (0, 1), Y = X with
probability θ, and Y is independent of X with probability 1 − θ, then (X, Y ) has the
linear Spearman copula. This distribution has been first considered by Konijn [34] and
motivated by Cohen [9] along Cohen’s kappa statistic (see Hutchinson and Lai [29,
Section 10.9]). For the extended copula, the chosen nomenclature linear refers to the
350 WERNER HÜRLIMANN
piecewise linear sections of this copula, and Spearman refers to the fact that the grade
correlation coefficient ρS by Spearman [49] coincides with the parameter θ. This follows
from the calculation
1 1
ρS = 12 · Cθ (u, v) − uv du dv = θ. (3.2)
0 0
The linear Spearman copula, which leads to the linear Spearman bivariate distribution,
has a singular component, which, according to Joe, should limit its field of applicabil-
ity. Despite this, it has many interesting and important properties, and is suitable for
computation. Moreover, it is a good competitor in fitting bivariate cumulative returns,
as shown by Hürlimann [28].
For the reader’s convenience, we describe first two extremal properties. Kendall’s tau
for this copula is defined as follows:
1 1
∂ ∂
τ = 1−4· Cθ (u, v) · Cθ (u, v)du dv
0 0 ∂u ∂v
(3.3)
1
= ρS · 2 + sgn ρS ρS .
3
√
−1 + 1 + 3τ, τ ≥ 0,
ρS =
1 − √1 − 3τ,
(3.4)
τ ≤ 0.
Since ρS = α − β and τ = ((α − β)/3)(2 + α + β) for this copula, one has the inequalities
τ ≤ ρS ≤ −1 + 1 + 3τ, τ ≥ 0,
(3.6)
1 − 1 − 3τ ≤ ρS ≤ τ, τ ≤ 0.
The linear Spearman copula satisfies the following extremal property. For τ ≥ 0, the
upper bound for ρS in Fréchet’s copula is attained by the linear Spearman copula, and
for τ ≤ 0, it is the lower bound, which is attained.
In case τ ≥ 0, a second more important extremal property holds, which is related to a
conjectural statement. Recall that Y is stochastically increasing on X, written SI(Y |X), if
Pr(Y > y | X = x) is a nondecreasing function of x for all y. Similarly, X is stochastically
increasing on Y , written SI(X|Y ), if Pr(X > x | Y = y) is a nondecreasing function of
y for all x. (Note that Lehmann [36] speaks instead of positive regression dependence.)
If X and Y are continuous random variables with copula C(u, v), then one has the
MULTIVARIATE FRÉCHET COPULAS AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK 351
∂
SI(Y |X) ⇐⇒ C(u, v) is nonincreasing in u for all v,
∂u
(3.7)
∂
SI(X|Y ) ⇐⇒ C(u, v) is nonincreasing in v for all u.
∂v
3
−1 + 1 + 3τ ≤ ρS ≤ min τ, 2τ − τ 2 . (3.8)
2
The upper bound 2τ −τ 2 is attained for the one-parameter copula introduced by Kimel-
dorf and Sampson [33] (see also Hutchinson and Lai [29, Section 13.7]). The lower bound
is attained by the linear Spearman copula, as shown already by Konijn [34, page 277].
Alternatively, if the conjecture holds, the maximum value of Kendall’s tau given by ρS
is attained for the linear Spearman copula. Note that the upper bound ρS ≤ (3/2)τ
has been disproved recently by Nelsen [41, Exercise 5.36]. The remaining conjecture
√
−1 + 1 + 3τ ≤ ρS ≤ 2τ − τ 2 is still unsettled (however, see Hürlimann [27] for the case
of bivariate extreme value copulas).
As an important modeling characteristic, we show that the linear Spearman copula
leads to a simple tail dependence structure. Using (2.7), one obtains
1 − 2u + Cθ (u, u)
λ(X, Y ) = lim = lim (1 − u + θu) = θ. (3.9)
u→1− 1−u u→1−
Therefore, unless X and Y are independent, a linear Spearman couple is always asymp-
totically dependent. This is a desirable property in insurance and financial modeling,
where data tend to be dependent in their extreme values. In contrast to this, the ubiq-
uitous Gaussian copula always yields asymptotic independence, unless perfect correla-
tion holds (Sibuya [47], Resnick [43, Chapter 5], and Embrechts et al. [20, Section 4.4]).
3.2. Distribution and stop-loss transform of bivariate sums. For several purposes
in actuarial science and finance, it is of interest to have analytical expressions for the
distribution and stop-loss transform of dependent sums S = X + Y , denoted respec-
tively by FS (x) = Pr(S ≤ x) and πS (x) = E[(S − x)+ ]. If (X, Y ) follows a linear Spearman
bivariate distribution, we show in Theorem 3.4 that the evaluation of these quantities
depends on the knowledge of the quantiles and stop-loss transform of the independent
sum of X and Y , denoted by S ⊥ = X ⊥ + Y ⊥ , where (X ⊥ , Y ⊥ ) represents an independent
version of (X, Y ) such that X ⊥ and Y ⊥ are independent and X ⊥ and Y ⊥ are identi-
cally distributed as X and Y . Similarly, if (X + , Y + ) is a comonotone version of (X, Y )
with bivariate distribution F(X + ,Y + ) (x, y) = min{FX (x), FY (y)}, the sum is denoted by
S + = X + + Y + , while if (X − , Y − ) is a countercomonotone version such that (X − , −Y − )
is a comonotone couple, the sum is denoted by S − = X − + Y − . We assume throughout
that the margins have continuous and strictly increasing distribution functions, hence
the quantile functions are uniquely defined. A linear Spearman random couple (X, Y )
with Spearman coefficient θ is denoted by LSθ (X, Y ).
352 WERNER HÜRLIMANN
Lemma 3.1. For each LSθ (X, Y ), θ ∈ [−1, 1], the distribution and stop-loss transform
of the sum S = X + Y satisfy the relationships
FS−1 −1 −1
+ (u) = FX (u) + FY (u), FS−1 −1 −1
− (u) = FX (u) + FY (1 − u), (3.11)
−1 −1 −1
πS + FS + (u) = πX FX (u) + πY FY (u) , (3.12)
−1
πS − FS − (u) = πX FX−1 (u) + E[Y ] − FY−1 (1 − u) − πY FY−1 (1 − u) . (3.13)
∞
FX+Y (s) = FY |X=x (s − x)dFX (x) (3.14)
−∞
us
FX+Y (s) = du = us , (3.15)
0
where us solves the equation FX−1 (us ) + FY−1 (us ) = s. Therefore, (3.15) is equivalent to
−1
FX+Y (us ) = FX−1 (us ) + FY−1 (us ), and since s is arbitrary, the first part of (3.11) is shown.
The second part of (3.11) follows similarly using the copula C(u, v) = max(u+v −1, 0).
To show (3.13), consider the “spread” function of a random variable X defined by
∞
TX (u) := πX FX−1 (u) = x − FX−1 (u) dFX (x)
−1 (u)
FX
1
(3.16)
= FX−1 (t) − FX−1 (u) dt.
u
TS + (u) = πS + FS−1
+ (u)
1 1
= FX−1 (t) − FX−1 (u) dt + FY−1 (t) − FY−1 (u) dt (3.17)
u u
= πX FX−1 (u) + πY FY−1 (u) ,
MULTIVARIATE FRÉCHET COPULAS AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK 353
which shows the first part of (3.13). For the second part of (3.13), one similarly obtains
TS − (u) = πS − FS−1
− (u)
1 1
= FX−1 (t) − FX−1 (u) dt + FY−1 (1 − t) − FY−1 (1 − u) dt
u u
1
= πX FX−1 (u) + FY−1 (z) − FY−1 (1 − u) dz (3.18)
0
1
− FY−1 (z) − FY−1 (1 − u) dz
1−u
= πX FX−1 (u) + E[Y ] − FY−1 (1 − u) − πY FY−1 (1 − u) .
Remark 3.3. In case of continuous and strictly increasing margins, the first additive
relations in (3.11) and (3.13) extend easily to n-variate sums S + = X1+ + · · · + Xn+ of
mutually comonotonic random variables:
n
n
FS−1
+ (u) = FX−1
i
(u), πS + FS−1
+ (u) = πXi FX−1
i
(u) . (3.19)
i=1 i=1
For the quantile, this is already found by Landsberger and Meilijson [35]. Both relations
are given by Dhaene et al. [16], Kaas et al. [32], and Hürlimann [26]. Our elementary
approach has the advantage to yield the additional result for S − . These relations are of
great importance in economic risk capital evaluations using the value-at-risk and con-
ditional value-at-risk measures. They imply that the maximum CVaR for the aggregate
loss L = L1 +· · ·+Ln of a portfolio L = (L1 , . . . , Ln ) with fixed marginal losses is attained
at the portfolio with mutually comonotone components, and it is equal to the sum of
the CVaR of its components (Hürlimann [26, Theorems 2.2 and 2.3]):
n
max CVaRα [L] = CVaRα L+ = CVaRα Li . (3.20)
i=1
In contrast to this, the maximum VaR of a portfolio with fixed marginal losses is not
attained at the portfolio with mutual components. This assertion is related to Kol-
mogorov’s problem treated by Makarov [38], Rüschendorf [45], Frank et al. [22], Denuit
et al. [13], Durrleman et al. [18], Luciano and Marena [37], Cossette et al. [10], and Em-
brechts et al. [19]. In the comonotonic situation, one has with (3.19) only the additive
relation
n
VaRα L+ = VaRα Li . (3.21)
i=1
Theorem 3.4. For each LSθ (X, Y ), θ ∈ [−1, 1], the distribution and stop-loss trans-
form of the sum S = X + Y are determined as follows. For each u ∈ [0, 1], one has with
354 WERNER HÜRLIMANN
Though not always of simple form, analytical expressions for one of density, distri-
bution, and stop-loss transform of the independent sum S ⊥ = X ⊥ +Y ⊥ from parametric
families of margins often exist. A numerical evaluation using computer algebra systems
is then easy to implement. For example, this is possible for the often encountered mar-
gins from the normal, gamma, and lognormal families of distributions (see Johnson et
al. [31] and Hürlimann [25]).
where θij ∈ [0, 1], and by symmetry, θji = θij . Applying the method of mixtures of
independent conditional distributions, one considers the conditional distributions
∂Cij
Fj|i xj |xi = F i xi , F j xj
∂ui (4.2)
= 1 − θij · Fj xj + θij · 1{xi ≤F −1 [Fj (xj )]} .
i
This representation shows that each C (i) is a convex combination of the n different
elementary copulas
n
r
EC u1 , . . . , un = min uj · ui , r = 0, 2, 3, . . . , n. (4.4)
1≤j≤r
i=r +1
(i)
It follows that the Spearman correlation coefficient of Cr s is equal to
θr s , i = r or i = s,
(i)
ρS r s = (4.6)
θ θ , i = r , s.
ir is
Therefore, for r = i or s = i, the distribution F (i) has the desired linear Spearman
bivariate margins Fr s with Spearman’s rho θr s . Unfortunately, for the other indices
r , s = i, the bivariate margin Fr s has the Spearman correlation coefficient θir θis , which
in general differs from the parameter θr s . To construct an n-variate distribution F ,
whose linear Spearman bivariate margins Fr s may have more general Spearman’s rho
ρrSs ∈ [0, 1], we consider the convex combination of the copulas C (i) , i ∈ {1, . . . , n},
defined for all θ = (θij ), θij = 1, by
1
n 1
C(u1 , . . . , un ) = · · C (i) u1 , . . . , un ,
cn (θ) i=1 j=i 1 − θij
(4.7)
n
1
cn (θ) = .
i=1 j=i
1 − θij
If θij = 1 for all i, j, one sets C(u1 , . . . , un ) = min1≤j≤n (uj ), which is the copula of n
comonotone random variables. Using (4.6), one sees that the linear Spearman bivariate
margins Fr s have Spearman’s rho determined by
1
n 1
ρrSs = · · θr s εir + εis + θir θis 1 − εir 1 − εis , (4.8)
cn (θ) i=1 j=i 1 − θij
j j j
where εi is a Kronecker symbol such that εi = 1 if j = i and εi = 0 if j = i. Though it
S
has not been shown that the functions (4.8), which map θ = (θij ), θij = 1, to ρ S = (ρij ),
S
ρij = 1, are one-to-one, the constructed copula (4.7) is sufficiently general and simple to
yield tractable positive dependent n-variate distributions with bivariate margins equal
356 WERNER HÜRLIMANN
or at least close to given linear Spearman bivariate margins. By appropriate choice of the
univariate margins, say gamma or lognormal margins, the obtained parametric family
of n-variate copulas satisfies the four desirable properties in Section 2.
To obtain expressions which can be implemented, insert (4.3) into (4.7) and rearrange
terms to get the formula
1
C u1 , . . . , u n =
cn (θ)
n
· n· ui
(4.9)
i=1
n
r
θi1 ij
+ · min uij · uk .
r =2 i1 =···=ir j=2
1 − θi1 ij 1≤j≤r
k∉{i1 ,...,ir }
In particular, this shows that the constructed n-variate copula is a convex combination
of elementary copulas of the type defined in (4.4). Regrouping these terms further, one
obtains simpler expressions. For example, if n = 3, one has
θij
C u1 , u2 , u3 = c3 (θ)−1 · 3u1 u2 u3 + 2 min ui , uj uk
i<j
1 − θij k=i,j
(4.10)
θij θik
+ min u1 , u2 , u3 .
k=j=i
1 − θij 1 − θik
Theorem 5.1. Suppose (X1+ , . . . , Xr+ , Xr⊥+1 , . . . , Xn⊥ ) is a random vector whose distri-
bution belongs to the copula EC r , 2 ≤ r ≤ n − 1. Assume that the continuous and
strictly increasing marginal distributions Fi (x) with support [0, ∞) have densities fi (x),
n
1 ≤ i ≤ n, and set X = i=r +1 Xi⊥ . Then the distribution and stop-loss transform of the
r
sum S = X + i=1 Xi+ are determined by the formulas
us
r
r
−1
FS (s) = ufX s − Fi−1 (u) · fi Fi−1 (u) du, (5.1)
0
i=1 i=1
us
r
r
−1 −1
πS (s) = E[S] − s + uFX s − Fi−1 (u) · fi Fi (u) du, (5.2)
0
i=1 i=1
r
Fi−1 us = s. (5.3)
i=1
r
Proof. Set Y = i=1 Xi+ and use Dhaene and Goovaerts [15, Lemma 2] to obtain the
formulas πS (s) = E[S] − s + I(s) and FS (s) = 1 + (d/ds)πS (s) = I (s), with
s
I(s) = F(X,Y ) (x, s − x)dx. (5.4)
0
s FY (s)
I(s) = FX (s − t)FY (t)dt = uFX s − QY (u) · QY (u)du
0 0
r (5.5)
us r
= uFX s − Fi−1 (u) · fi Fi−1 (u) du,
0
i=1 i=1
r
where the last equality follows from the fact that Y = i=1 Xi+ is a comonotone sum,
and the definition of us in (5.3). The formula (5.2) is shown. Formula (5.1) follows from
s
FS (s) = I (s) = FX (0) · FY (s) + fX (s − t)FY (t)dt
0
s (5.6)
= fX (s − t)FY (t)dt
0
Next, taking pattern from the recent contributions by Denuit et al. [12, Theorem
3.1] and Hürlimann [26, Remark 2.1], it is important to know if the constructed n-
variate “positive dependent” distributions associated to random vectors (X1 , . . . , Xn ) are
n
such that the dependent sums S = i=1 Xi are always bounded in convex order by the
n n
corresponding independent sum S ⊥ = i=1 Xi⊥ and the comonotone sum S + = i=1 Xi+ .
EC r u1 , . . . , un · un+1 , r ∈ {0, 2, 3, . . . , n},
r n
ECn+1 u1 , . . . , un+1 = (5.7)
min u , . . . , u · u r = n + 1,
1 n n+1 ,
n
which shows that Xn+1 is independent of (X1 , . . . , Xn ), hence also of Sn = i=1 Xi . Since
the stop-loss order is preserved under convolutions, it follows from the induction as-
⊥ ⊥ ⊥ +
sumption Sn⊥ ≤sl ≤ Sn ≤sl Sn+ that Sn+1 = Sn⊥ + Xn+1 ≤sl ≤ Sn + Xn+1 = Sn+1 ≤sl Sn+1 .
CVaRα [X] = E X | X > VaRα [X]
= VaRα [X] + mX VaRα [X]
(6.1)
1
= VaRα [X] + πX VaRα [X] .
1−α
In the multivariate situation, the conditional value-at-risk vector to the confidence level
α, denoted by CVaRα [X] = (CVaR1α [X], . . . , CVaRn
α [X]), satisfies similarly the defining
MULTIVARIATE FRÉCHET COPULAS AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK 359
relations
CVaRiα [X] = E Xi | Xj > VaRα Xj , j = 1, . . . , n
i
= VaRα [Xi ] + mX VaRα [X]
(6.2)
π i VaRα [X]
= VaRα Xi + X , i = 1, . . . , n,
SX VaRα [X]
where VaRα [X] = (VaRα [X1 ], . . . , VaRα [Xn ]) defines a value-at-risk vector.
We point out the usefulness of this multivariate extension to the evaluation of the
economic risk capital of a portfolio of risks X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ). It is natural to define the
n
economic risk capital of the aggregate risk S = i=1 Xi as a multivariate conditional
value-at-risk vector to the confidence level α by setting
CVaRα S|X = E S | Xj > VaRα Xj , j = 1, . . . , n . (6.3)
Allocating to the risk Xi the ith component of the conditional value-at-risk vector (6.2)
defines the multivariate conditional value-at-risk allocation principle, which by (6.3)
turns out to be an additive allocation principle, which satisfies the identity
n
n
CVaRα Xi |X = CVaRiα Xi . (6.4)
i=1 i=1
The proposed risk allocation rule yields a simple solution to the difficult risk allocation
problem (e.g., Tasche [50] and Denault [11]).
For continuous univariate marginals, the univariate conditional value-at-risk mea-
n
sures CVaRα [ i=1 Xi ] and CVaRα [Xi ], i = 1, . . . , n, are coherent risk measures in the
sense of Artzner et al. [4, 5] (e.g., Acerbi [1] and Acerbi and Tasche [2, 3]). In view of
this fact, it seems important to derive connections between these risk measures and
their multivariate counterparts. The following main result yields an interesting and
surprising result.
Proof. In a first step, we show the result for X with elementary copula (4.4). For
simplicity, set xi,α = VaRα [Xi ], i = 1, . . . , n, xα = (x1,α , . . . , xn,α ), and ε = 1−α. From the
form of the survival copula (4.4), one obtains the survival function
n
SX (x) = min SXi xi S Xi xi . (6.5)
1≤j≤r
i=r +1
360 WERNER HÜRLIMANN
Using that SXi (xi ) = ε and the definition of the stop-loss transform components, one
obtains
Inserted in (6.2) one gets, CVaRiα [X] = xi,α + (1/ε)πXi (xi,α ) = CVaRα [Xi ], which shows
the result in this special case. The copula (4.9) is a convex combination of elemen-
tary copulas EC r (up(1) , . . . , up(n) ) with appropriate permutations (p(1), . . . , p(n)) of
(1, . . . , n), for which (6.6) still holds. Since multivariate survival functions and stop-
loss transforms are preserved under convex combinations, one sees that ε · πXi (xα ) =
πXi (xi,α ) · SX (xα ) for all X with copula (4.9), which implies the desired result.
Example 6.2 (a bivariate distribution with the property of Theorem 6.1). Consider
a random couple (X, Y ) with survival function S(X,Y ) (x, y) = (1/2)e−x−y + e− max(x,y) ,
1 −y
x, y ≥ 0. One has π(X,Y ) (x, y) = S(X,Y ) (x, y) + (1/2)(y − x)+ e , SX (x) = πX (x) =
(1/2)e−x , and SY (y) = πY (y) = (1/2)e−y . An elementary calculation shows that
CVaR1α (X, Y ) = CVaRα [X] = CVaR2α (X, Y )
(6.7)
= CVaRα [Y ] = 1 − ln 2(1 − α) .
dependence. The conditional value-at-risk measures of the margins are CVaRα [X] =
(1 − ln ε)µX , CVaRα [Y ] = (1 − ln ε)µY , with ε = 1 − α. Formulas for the other risk mea-
sures are derived in a straightforward way. For the dependent sum S = X +Y , we use the
formula CVaRα [S] = FS−1 (α) + (1/ε)πS [FS−1 (α)], which requires expressions for FS (s)
and πS (s). Pearson’s rho is denoted by ρ. A typical numerical example is summarized
in Table 6.1, where µX = 0.85715 and µY = 0.75.
Bivariate exponential Gumbel [24]. The survival distribution of this model and
the required formulas to evaluate Table 6.1 are summarized by the following formulas:
1
CVaR1α (X, Y ) = − ln ε µX ,
1 − θµX µY ln ε
1
CVaR2α (X, Y ) = − ln ε µY
1 − θµX µY ln ε
FS (x) = 1 − e−αx − e−βx
θ α−β θ α−β 2
+ g (x) − β + x+ g(x) exp −βx − x+ ,
4 θ 4 θ
−αx −βx θ α−β 2
πS (x) = µX e + µY e + g(x) exp −βx − x+ ,
4 θ
∞
θk 1 α − β 2k+1 α − β 2k+1
2k+1
g(x) = x − − (−1) x + .
k=0
k! (2k + 1)22k+1 θ θ
(6.9)
1 1
µX = , µY = ,
α β (6.10)
∞
1 1
ρ = θ 1+ 1 − sgn(θ) 2 y ln(1 − e−βy )e−βy dy ,
2 µY 0
CVaR1α (X, Y ) = CVaRα [X], CVaR2α (X, Y ) = CVaRα [Y ] (Theorem 6.1).
The quantities FS (x) and πS (x) are calculated using Theorem 3.4.
Some comments and recommendations are in order. By positive dependence, the
multivariate conditional value-at-risk for the Marshall-Olkin is greater than for the lin-
ear Spearman, while by negative dependence, it is smaller for the Gumbel than for the
linear Spearman. If the risk measure should be invariant with respect to the depen-
dence structure, or if the diversification effect should vanish (additive risk allocation),
we recommend the use of the multivariate conditional value-at-risk for the linear Spear-
man. A discrimination of the risk measure with respect to the dependence structure is
obtained by using either CVaR[S] or CVaR[S|X] for copulas different from the linear
Spearman one. A maximal diversification effect is obtained by using CVaR[S] with the
Marshall-Olkin by positive dependence and with the Gumbel by negative dependence. A
more stable diversification effect is obtained with the linear Spearman. Whether these
observations generalize to other bivariate distributions and extend to the multivariate
situation is left to future investigations.
Finally, we want to mention that the approach of the present paper has a lot of alter-
native significant applications including very recent ones like Cherubini and Luciano
[6, 7].
MULTIVARIATE FRÉCHET COPULAS AND CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK 363
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E-mail address: [email protected]
URL: www.geocities.com/hurlimann53