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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HUMAN SETTLEMENT AND THEIR

POSSIBLE ADAPTIVE MEASURES: AN OVERVIEW FROM PAKISTAN

Article · December 2011

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 ISSN 2227-1015
Rajshahi University journal of environmental science, Vol. 1, 62-72, December 2011

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HUMAN SETTLEMENT AND

THEIR POSSIBLE ADAPTIVE MEASURES: AN OVERVIEW FROM
PAKISTAN

S. Noor* and M. Fatima

Department of Geography, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan

Abstract
This research article examines the impacts of climate change on human settlement
particularly in Pakistan; it does not rely on quantitative data analysis of specific emission
or climate change, however, it based on the available scientific literature on climate
change and its relation with settlement in Pakistan. Firstly, this paper describes the
vulnerability of Pakistan toward climate change along with the determinants of exposure,
sensitivity and capacity to adapt this issue. Next to it, the paper explains the key climate
change impacts especially on the human settlements, health, water resources, urban
infrastructure, economic competency, social and political structure, energy requirement
and vulnerable regions. Finally, the paper gives a brief description of some adaptive
measures which should be opted by the government of Pakistan and communities to
tackle the aftermaths of climate change.

Key words: Climatic change, Human settlements, Adaptation, Pakistan

Introduction
Climate change in IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) usage refers to “a change
in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the
mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity”. This usage differs from that in the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate
change refers to “a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (Houghton, 2001). The
world’s climate is changing and will continue to change into the coming century at rates
projected to be unprecedented in recent human history. The risks associated with these
changes are real but highly uncertain and sometime unpredictable. Societal vulnerability to
the risks associated with climate change may exacerbate ongoing social and economic
challenges, particularly for those parts of societies dependent on resources that are more
sensitive to changes in climate. Risks are apparent in agriculture, fisheries and many other
components that constitute the livelihood of rural populations in developing
countries.(Adger et al. 2003). In addition this is a major threat for water resources.

*
E-mail: [email protected]
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

Human settlements are where people live and work, including all population centers
ranging from small rural communities to densely developed metropolitan areas. Settlements
are important in considering prospects for adaptation to climate change, both because they
represent concentrations of people and because buildings and other infrastructures offer
ways to manage risk and monitor/control threats associated with climate extremes and other
non-climate stressors. There are two basic options to respond to such concerns. One
response is to contribute to climate change mitigation strategies, i.e., by taking actions to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and by showing leadership in encouraging others to
support such actions. The second response is to consider strategies for adaptation, i.e.,
finding ways either to reduce sensitivity to projected changes or to increase the settlement’s
coping capacities. Adaptation can rely mainly on anticipatory actions to avoid damages and
costs, such as “hardening” coastal structures to sea level rise; or adaptation can rely mainly
on response potentials, such as emergency preparedness; or it can include a mix of the two
approaches. Research to date suggests that anticipatory adaptation may be more cost-
effective than reactive adaptation (Janet, 2008).
Pakistan stands among the group of developing countries which are extremely vulnerable
to the adverse impacts of climate change. The most serious concerns for Pakistan are the
threats to its water, food and energy security and the vulnerability of its coastal areas.
Other climate change related particular concerns include increased risks of extreme
events (floods, droughts and cyclones) and adverse impacts on forests, biodiversity,
human health and vulnerable regions (mountainous areas, rangelands, arid regions and
coastal areas etc.) (Shams, 2010). Climate change represents an additional stress over
already resource stressed country like Pakistan (Farooqi and Mir, 2005).
Vulnearability of Pakistan
There may be different determinants of vulnerability, however Clark (Clark and McCarthy,
2000), classified the vulnerability determinants into three categories including exposure to
climate change, sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity. This classification
could be effective to understand the impacts of Climate Change in Case of Pakistan.
a. Exposure to Climate Change
It refers that to what climate change are settlement likely to be exposed changes in
temperature or precipitation, changes in storm intensities and changes in sea level. The
vulnerability or security of individuals and of societies is determined, not only by the
likely responses of the resources on which individuals depend, but by the availability of
resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these
resources(Adger et al. 2003). According to this determinant Pakistan is particularly
vulnerable, because it has generally a warm, sub tropical climate. The IPCC assessments
based on the projection of future global climate with the help of various Global
Circulation Models (GCM) predicts slightly higher temperature increases in the region
where Pakistan is located as compared to average global temperature increase. The

63
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

average mean annual temperature over Pakistan has increased by 0.57 °C over the period
1901-2000 (in agreement with the global trend) (Shams, 2010).Similarly average mean
annual rainfall in Pakistan increase to 25% during the previous century. Moreover
Pakistan’s rivers are predominantly fed by the Hindukush-Karakrum-Himalaya glaciers
which are reported to be retreating rapidly due to recent global warming. The glacier
melting in the Himalayas is expected to increase flooding of Indus and its tributaries for
the next two to three decades which will be followed by decreased river flows as the
glaciers recede (IPCC, 2007). In addition, increase in the sea level and cyclonic activity
in the coastal areas of Pakistan has increased its exposure to climate change.
Sensitivity to Climate Change
In current economic and geographical conditions, Pakistan seems to be very sensitive
toward climate change. Its economy is largely based on agriculture hence faces
increasingly large risks of variability in monsoon rains, floods and extended droughts
(Table 1). Due to all these threats, water security, food security and energy security of the
country are under serious risks. Related with this fact, 60% of the land area of Pakistan is
arid and semi-arid which can be suffering most by such determinants of climate change.

Table 1 Salient Climate Change Events in Pakistan since 1990

Extreme Events Frequency
Floods 6
Cyclones 2
High Temperature 2
Heat wave 1
Drought 1
Sources: The Task Force on Climate Change, Planning Commission of Pakistan
b. Adaptive Capacity
Low- and middle-income countries also have a far greater deficit in adaptive capacity than
do high-income countries, because of the backlogs in protective infrastructure and services
and the limitations in urban government. Similarly, being a developing country, Pakistan
lacks technical capacity and financial resources to address climate change related issues.
Secondly like all the other developing countries, Pakistan does not have adequate
monitoring system for the prediction of likelihood of occurrence of extreme events, or the
assessment of possible changes in weather, and detailed vulnerability studies.
Principle Impacts of Climate Change on Human Settlement
Impacts of Climate Change on human settlement vary regionally, but some of the main
impacts remain the same (Fig 1). Pakistan with a population of about 140 million which
is expected to rise to 210 million by 2025 is the eighth most populous country in the
world. During the last 25 years, Pakistan’s urban population has been growing at the rate
more than 3% per annum (HDC, 1999b). Urban settlements have grown at such a rapid

64
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

pace that today nearly 30% of Pakistan’s population is contained in less than 0.75% of its
area (HDC, 1999b). While these settlements have developed, basic infrastructure
facilities have not kept pace with it. As a Consequence of this, about one third of
Pakistan’s urban population lives in squatter settlements or slums (Katchi Abadis) that
lack clean drinking water, sanitation, health, education, and employment opportunities
(HDC, 1999b). According to estimates the proportion of houses in urban areas that have
access to piped drinking water has actually gone down from 68% in 1989 to less than
60% in 1997 (FBS, 1998). As climate change is likely to have a detrimental impact on
rural livelihoods, therefore, more people are likely to be forced to seek employment in
urban areas. Such conditions of developing phase of settlements leading them to be more
vulnerable toward climate change.
1. Effect on Human Health
Climate change effect the health of human population in many ways. The climate-health
relationships that are the easiest to define and study are those in relation to heat waves,
the physical hazards of floods, storms, and fires, and various infectious diseases
(especially those that are vector-borne). Other important climatic risks to health, from
changes in regional food yields, disruption of fisheries, loss of livelihoods, and
population displacement (because of sea-level rise, water shortages, etc) are less easy to
study than these factors and their causal processes and effects are less easily quantified
(Janet, 2008). In Pakistan, warmer temperatures and higher humidity increase the months
of the year in which mosquitoes are active and thus aggravation of malaria is to be
expected. This can also be anticipated to be a major new hazard in northern areas of
Pakistan where the mosquito season is currently limited by low temperatures in winter.
Malaria is only one of the vector-borne diseases expected to expand northwards. Higher
air and water temperatures are favorable to reproduction rates of many types of flies and
other vectors of disease and thus an increase in infectious diseases are to be expected,
particularly in the northern half of Pakistan. The recent outbreak of dengue fever in many
parts of Pakistan might be having its origin in the change of climate. Various other health
impacts are expected to result from the increase in extreme weather conditions caused by
climate change; the most feared are: increased incidences of pneumonia, heat stokes,
cholera, heart attacks etc. Another climate change related impact of particular concern to
Pakistan is the ‘winter smog’, which has been seriously affecting almost entire Punjab in
December and January for the last several years. Believed to be due to the continental
scale air pollution known as Atmospheric Brown Cloud (UNEP, 2008), it is expected to
increase as the use of coal and petroleum increases in India, China and Pakistan over the
coming decades. Climate change will not only affect human health, the overall social
development would suffer from outbreak of the heat related and vector borne diseases,
coupled with malnutrition caused by food and water insecurity.

65
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

Recently, flood began in Pakistan in July 2010 caused by monsoon rains. The National
Disaster Management Authority reports that almost 20 million people and 62,000 square
miles land have been affected by this disaster. Almost 1,600 people have been reported
killed while more than 2,366 injured. Major disease outbreak in these areas include Acute
Flaccid Paralysis, Acute Respiratory Infections, skin infections, Bloody Diarrhea,
Cholera, Dengue, malaria, Measles and viral Hepatitis (Table 2).

Table 2 Disease Outbreak in Flood affected areas of Pakistan (2010)

Diseases Total Cases Reported
Skin Diseases 1,243,346 (17%)
Acute Respiratory Infection 1,177,886 (16%)
Acute Diarrhea 963,326 (13%)
Bloody Diarrhea 74,033 (1%)
Suspected Malaria 343,481 (<5%)
Unexplained Fever 367,488 (5%)
Source: WHO- Pakistan Health clusters, Flood 2010

Human Health
Vulnerable Water
Regions resources

Impacts of
Climate Change
on Human
Energy Urban
Requirements Settlement infrastructure

Economic
Social and Urban Opportunities,
political Metabolism Competitive
structure and risks

Fig. 1: Principle Impacts of Climate Change on Human Settlement

66
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

2. Effects on Water Resources

Changes in precipitation patterns may lead to reductions in melt water, river flows,
groundwater levels, and in coastal areas may lead to saline intrusion in rivers and
groundwater, affecting water supply. Meanwhile, warming may increase water demands
(Gleick, 2000). Similarly, in Pakistan, the effect of climate change on water resources is
expected to be significant. An analysis of changes in the hydrological regime can provide
a basis for estimating the impacts of climate change on water resources, and can be used
as a tool to recommend changes in the water management regimes. In general, increase in
temperature would not only increase water demand because of higher evaporation rates,
but may also increase rainfall due to additional moisture supplied to the clouds because of
higher evaporation from the sea surface. Similarly, increased rainfall may cause increase
in magnitude of flood (Environment, 2003). Sea level rise would also enable saltwater to
ingress farther inland, and upstream in to the rivers, wetlands, and aquifers, which would
be harmful to aquatic flora and fauna, and would threaten human uses of water. Increased
salinity has already been cited in most of the coastal areas especially in the lower deltaic
plain region. A rising sea level, combined with decreased river flow and sediments
dispersal, would mean a land ward penetration of the salt water wedge within the
groundwater column, which would have significant implications for communities living
in the coastal regions. On the other hand, the river flows are expected to decrease after a
few decades due to reduced glacier mass to a level that would be determined by the
precipitation input at that time. According to the World Bank (WB, 2006) report:
“Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry”, the western Himalayan glaciers will retreat
for next 50 years causing increase in Indus River flows. Therefore, the glacier reservoirs
will be empty, resulting in decreases of 30% to 40% in river flows in the Indus Basin. All
these impacts of climate change are the clear threats to the water resources of Pakistan.

3. Urban Infrastructure
Storms, floods, and other severe weather events may affect other infrastructure, including
sanitation systems, transportation, supply lines for food and energy, and communication.
Exposed structures such as bridges and electricity transmission networks are especially
vulnerable. In many cases, infrastructures are interconnected; an impact on one can also
affect others (Kirshen, 2007). Pakistan, which has a coast extending over approximately
a thousand kilometers, is one of the countries classified by UNEP (United Nations
Environment Program) through its OCA/PAC regional seas program, as being
particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. The country’s largest city, Karachi,
which houses almost 10% of the total population, and about 40% of all manufacturing
units, is situated on the coast. A rise in sea level would raise the water table, further
reducing drainage in coastal areas. All these effects could have possibly devastating
socioeconomic implications, particularly for infrastructure in low-lying deltaic areas. On
the west, Makran coast erosion already threatens coastal property, coastal agriculture land

67
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

and habitats, and such effects may be intensified in the event of further sea level rise.
Loose sediments produced by erosion, and in some places accretion, would be a serious
threat for the fisheries sector and to navigation. Similarly, The United Nations has related
the recent flood (2010) in Pakistan as the greatest humanitarian crisis in recent history
with more people affected than the South-East Asian tsunami and the recent earthquake
of Kashmir and Haiti combined.

4. Economic Opportunities, Competitive and Risks

Climate change has the potential not only to affect settlements directly but also to affect
them through impacts on other areas linked to their economies at regional, national, and
international scales (Rosenzweig, 2006). In addition, it can affect a settlement’s economic
base if it is sensitive to climate, especially in areas where settlements are based on
agriculture, forestry, water resources, or tourism (IPCC, 2001a). Agriculture and Livestock
sector is the mainstay of the national economy in Pakistan. Particularly, its economy
dependent mainly on agriculture makes it particularly susceptible to the effects of climate
change. It contributes 22% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), accounts for 60% of
country’s exports, provides livelihood to about 68% of the country’s population living in
rural areas and employs 43% of the national labor force. The foremost challenge before the
sector is to adequately provide for the food and fiber needs of a growing population without
irreversibly damaging the fragile ecosystem. Being open to vagaries of nature, this sector is
highly vulnerable to climate change phenomena. The climate change will impact the food
security of the country mainly through reduced crop productivity and adverse impacts on
livestock health, productivity and reproducibility as well as through increased production
losses caused by extreme events (floods, droughts and cyclones).

5. Urban Metabolism
An urban area is a living complex mega-organism, associated with a host of inputs,
transformations, and outputs: heat, energy, materials, and others (Decker, 2000). A
climate change phenomenon which has become a serious cause for concern over the past
decade is the occurrence of dense fog in winter months around Lahore and a major part of
northern Punjab. Several studies have documented high concentrations of sulfates, black
carbon and toxic metals in air sampled in fog in Lahore (Hameed, 2000). Such factors
catalyze vulnerability of cities toward climate change.

6. Social and Political Structure

Climate change can add to stress on social and political structures by increasing
management and budget requirements for public services such as public health care,
disaster risk reduction, and even public security. As sources of stress grow and combine,
the resilience of social and political structures that are already somewhat unstable is
likely to suffer, especially in areas with relatively limited resources (Sherbinin, 2006). In

68
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

Pakistan, due to climate change impacts, a growing population may lead to increased
displacement of rural communities, human migration, and rapid, haphazard urbanization.
Hundreds of thousands of people particularly from the low lying areas are uprooted
during floods, houses were destroyed, means of communications were damaged and
disrupted, standing crops were wiped out and thousands of livestock were drowned. The
people and animals have to survive are faced with starvation because foodstuffs and
forage may not be immediately available in sufficient quantities. The displacement and
upheaval has significant health impacts, with diseases such as cholera and dysentery
generally becoming rampant in temporary shelters and camps set up for the homeless.
The coastal areas of Pakistan have great potential to develop as tourist resorts. However,
many of the coastal resources, which meet recreational and tourism needs, are already
under significant pressure from pollution, industrial and residential development, ports
and shipping. Moreover, these coastal zones have a rich history and culture. A number of
prominent archaeological sites can be found scattered along the coast, some of which
may be under threat from temporary or permanent inundation. The loss of cultural
heritage may thus be another consequence of climate change effects.

7. Energy Requirements
The per capita commercial energy and electricity consumption in Pakistan is projected to
increase from 0.36 toe and 400 kWh in 2005 to about 1.5 toe and 2,000 kWh in 2030,
while the corresponding change in energy intensity of the economy will be from 0.51
toe/1,000 $ to 0.48 toe/1,000$ (Shams ul Mulk, 2010). Climate change will affect the
energy sector directly as well indirectly through the ripple effect from its impacts on
other sectors. Climate change can affect the energy requirement directly and indirectly,
for example reductions in river flow rates with consequent reduction of hydropower
generation will necessitate an increase in fossil fuel capacity and a commensurate
increase in water cooling needs. Secondly, higher temperature will result in increased
demand of energy for pumping ground water to meet higher irrigation requirements due
to increased evapotranspiration, and to compensate for water losses due to evaporation. In
addition, higher temperatures will increase electricity demand for space cooling, thereby
increasing the peak demand and hence requiring additional generation capacity.

8. Vulnerable Regions
Pakistan has been grouped by the UNEP’s Oceans and Coastal Areas Program Activity
Centre among the countries which are among the most vulnerable to the effects of sea
level rise (Environment, 2003).These coastal areas are vulnerable for two reasons: rise in
sea level and increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Similarly, the vast
Indus plains are under threat of floods and deserts are susceptible toward existing
droughts.

69
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

Adaptive Measures
Adaptation is an automatic or planned response to change that minimizes the adverse
effects and maximizes any benefits. Adaptation is necessary because climate change is
already happening and the long lag time in the climate system make further climate
change, especially sea-level rise, inevitable (Pittock, 2009). There are two types of
adaptations which help to cope with the negative impacts of climate change: autonomous
and planned. Autonomous adaptations generally refer to those adjustments that are
carried out irrespective of the knowledge of climate change, while planned adaptations
are those made deliberately in order to address the expected climate change impacts. So
far most of the adaptation effort undertaken in Pakistan falls in the category of
autonomous adaptations. As discussed earlier, Pakistan has a low institutional and
financial capacity to adapt to climatic changes; therefore improving the adaptation
capability should be of the highest priority at this stage. Suggested adaptation strategies
for Pakistan will have to concentrate on reducing vulnerability to current climatic events,
as well as adopting policies for ensuring long-term ecological and human development
(Environment, 2003). Some of the key adaptive measures as suggested by Pittock, (2009)
can also be use in context of Pakistan’s climate change scenario.

Modify the Threats

For some risks it is possible to exercise a degree of control over the specific
environmental threats. For natural events such as a flood or drought, possible measures
include flood control works (dams, dykes, levees) or water storages, and to slow down
the green house gas emission. Pakistan government should develop mass transit system in
large cities, further more use of CNG (compressed natural gas) as a fuel for urban
transportation. Renewable energy technologies, e.g. wind, solar, small hydro, geothermal,
bio fuel, can be use as an alternate power generation sources as compare to fossil fuel
combustion.

Prevent Effects
A frequently used set of adaptation measures involve steps to prevent the effects of
climate change and variability. Examples for agriculture would be change in crop
management practice such as increased irrigation, additional fertilizer, and pest and
disease control.

Change Use
This adaptive measure is chosen when the threats or reality of climate change makes the
continuation of an economic activity impossible or extremely risky; hence to avoid such
condition an alternative activity can be adopted.

70
Impacts of Climate Change on the Human Settlement Noor and Fatima

Changing Location
A more extreme response is to change the location of economic activities. For example,
major crops and farming regions could be relocated away from areas increased aridity
and heat that are currently cooler and which may become more attractive for some crops
in the future.

Research Possibilities
Possibilities of adaptation can also be opened up by research into new technologies and
methods of adaptation, such as greater water use efficiently, or new crop cultivation,
alternate energy use validity etc.

Education, Information, and Behavioral Changes

Dissemination of Knowledge through education and public information campaign can
lead to adaptive behavioral change. Such activities have been little recognized and given
little priority in the past, but likely to assume increased importance as the need to involve
more communities, sectors, and regions in adaptation becomes apparent.

Conclusion
Climate Change has many direct and indirect impacts on the quality of human
settlements. Pakistan is a developing country under the extreme threats of climate
change; main extreme climatic events include floods, heat waves, droughts, cyclone and
rise in sea level. These conditions not only given a big blow to the economy of the
country but also affect number of settlements in many ways and ultimately put the quality
of life in danger for people of Pakistan. To cope up with all these challenges there is a
need to design the adaptive and mitigation measures along with proper implementation
particularly in vulnerable areas; otherwise these threats will multiply over the coming
decades.

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