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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

Collapse and Pull – Down Analysis of High Voltage Electricity

Transmission Towers Subjected to Cyclonic Wind

Ammar Ahmed, Craig Arthur and Mark Edwards

Risk and Impact Analysis Group, Geospatial and Earth Monitoring Division,
Geoscience Australia, Canberra ACT Australia.

[email protected]

Abstract. Bulk electricity transmission lines are linear assets that can be very exposed to wind
effects, particularly where they traverse steep topography or open coastal terrain in cyclonic
regions. Interconnected nature of the lattice type towers and conductors also, present complex
vulnerabilities. These relate to the direction of wind attack to the conductors and the cascading
failure mechanisms in which the failure of a single tower has cascading effects on
neighbouring towers. Such behaviour is exacerbated by the finely tuned nature of tower design
which serves to minimize cost and reserve strength at design wind speeds. There is a clear
need to better quantify the interdependent vulnerabilities of these critical infrastructure assets
in the context of the severe wind hazard. This paper presents a novel methodology developed
for the Critical Infrastructure Protection Modelling and Analysis (CIPMA) capability for
assessing local wind speeds and the likelihood of tower failure for a range of transmission
tower and conductor types. CIPMA is a program managed by the Federal Attorney-General’s
Department and Geoscience Australia is leading the technical development. The methodology
then involves the development of heuristically derived vulnerability models that are consistent
with Australian industry experience and full-scale static tower testing results, considering
isolated tower loss along with three interdependent failure mechanisms to give overall
likelihoods of failure.

1. Background
Natural hazards present risk to critical infrastructure and utilities that communities depend up on.
There are abundant examples of framework for gathering national level data for risk analysis and
disaster prevention in communities. The extent of information included is usually land use data,
infrastructure, topography and morphology (DEM), hydrology, geology and soil types (Rivereau,
1995). Ayyub, et.al. and McGill et.al. provide a methodology for analyzing impacts of hazards on
community utilizing this data for community preparedness in the United States of America (Ayyub et
al., 2007, McGill et al., 2007). Similar examples of national efforts for risk analysis are available
through out the world. In Australia, the Critical Infrastructure Protection Modelling and Analysis
(CIPMA) project is an example of national inventory of data and modeling capability for the benefit of
the community.
Cyclones produce devastating effects on communities as presented by Conner, et al., Edwards, et
al. and Reed. These post disaster studies provide an insight into community devastation, reconstruction
efforts and conflicts between national/local priorities. These studies clearly highlight the need for
better understanding cyclone impacts on infrastructure and formulation of preservation and recovery


c 2010 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1
WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

strategies (Conner et al., 2006, Edwards et al., 2007, Reed et al., 2007). The risk assessment process
consists of three stages – system observation, condition diagnosis and treatment identification
(Crandell, 1998, Li and Ellingwood, 2006, Moser, 1998, Shen and Grivas, 1996). Within this
framework, infrastructure is diagnosed under stress through vulnerability analysis (Huang et al., 2001,
Stewart, 2003). With a narrow focus on risk analysis for high voltage electricity transmission lines,
this paper presents a probabilistic methodology in evaluating damage to high voltage electricity
transmission lines following a detailed wind fields simulation from a tropical cyclone model and
intersecting these simulations with points of interest in a geographic information system (GIS) model
for the Australian community.

2. Literature Survey
Yao proposed a schema for analysis of structures and their response to impacts of severe wind using
instrumentation (Yao, 1979, Yao, 1980), however impacts from natural hazards are difficult to
replicate and need elaborate experimental set ups to be practicable. Many researchers have
subsequently applied methods for uncertainty analysis to make up for lack of data on system response
of structures to wind. Fuzzy sets have been used to handle uncertainties in the knowledge about
structural behavior due to impacts of cyclones(Murlidharan et al., 1997). Neural networks have also
been applied to analyze unknown structural systems through structural system response(Chassiakos
and Masri, 1996). These methodologies involve development of a hierarchical model for dependencies
of various parameters that affect damage and vulnerability of structures, where some system data is
available. Other efforts involve modeling of component behavior to evaluate strength under wind
pressure. Towards these efforts, 2D shell models of structures using Fourier series were developed to
account for reinforced concrete behavior, crack distribution and geometrical imperfections(Baillis et
al., 2000). Mathematical models of important infrastructure components such as cooling towers, tall
chimneys, industrial structures and their interaction with surrounding buildings to evaluate strength
under dynamic wind loads have also been investigated, mainly as a design input (Gorshi and
Chmielewski, 2007, Zhao and Ge, 2007). These methods are a motivation for the work presented in
this paper and evaluation of wind behavior of high voltage electricity lattice type towers are a
component of interest in the electricity transmission sector, due to a general lack of data.
Overhead transmission lines are a key element of the electrical power system for transferring bulk
power from generators to communities and industry. Lattice type transmission towers carrying
conductors form the physical back bone of the power transmission system. Transmission tower safety
and reliability assessment is necessary to plan for minimization of the risk of disruption of power
supply resulting from in-service tower failure. Lattice type transmission towers are constructed using
angle section members and are eccentrically connected. They are regarded as one of the most difficult
forms of lattice structures to analyze for dynamic loads. Analysis is difficult due to fabrication errors,
inadequate joint details and material properties being hard to quantify as a combination. Hence, proof
loading and full-scale tower testing is a traditional form of design validation for lattice type towers
(Albermani and Kitipornchai, 2003). In full scale tower testing, the loading conditions are static and
progressively increased to design loads and beyond until the structure fails. Mathematical models have
been developed for analyzing fatigue damage accumulation due to fluctuating stresses and the
methodology presented in the literature is directly applicable for determining reduced wind bearing
capacity of structures with age(Repetto and Solari, 2001). However this methodology is not suitable
for analyzing catastrophic failures encountered in wind events where wind load exceeds the reduced
load bearing capacity. Moreover, the loading conditions experienced by structures in severe wind
events are dynamic and relatively short term loads. Damage assessments of collapsed towers have
been conducted to a limited extent, highlighting the fact that even newly installed lattice type
transmission towers may collapse catastrophically(Xie et al., 2007). In most instances, mathematical
models are developed for dynamic wind loads impacting on lattice type structures through scaled
model wind tunnel tests where force spectra is determined and provides an estimation of base loads for
full scale tower design. Wind tunnel tests have only been able to confirm the complex behavior under

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

strong wind (Fujimura et al., 2007). It has also been observed in field that, depending on the cross-
sectional shape of the tower structure, the tower vulnerability is in an angular zone surrounding the
normal direction taken at the centre of the tower horizontally. scaled measurements of aero-elastic
models of lattice type transmission towers in wind tunnels have shown that wind induced dynamic
response is in the direction of the wind but. The direction of across wind flow has also been
extensively studied providing similar conclusions(Liang et al., 2007). Finite element and risk analysis
models to represent behavior of transmission lines to down burst and micro-burst winds have been
developed(Chay et al., 2006, Chay et al., 2007, Oliver et al., 2000, Savory et al., 2001, Shehata et al.,
2005). In down bursts and micro-bursts, winds move almost vertically on the transmission line and act
as dynamic dead weight on the transmission tower/line system. On the other hand, cyclonic winds are
almost horizontal and swing in direction in the duration of cyclone impact. Literature review has
established that uncertainty in mathematical models for wind loads impacting on transmission line
design has lead to uncertainty in behavior of lattice type transmission towers under cyclonic winds.
This uncertainty in turn has significantly influenced the computed failure probabilities under dynamic
wind loads. These conclusions have been confirmed through analysis of transmission tower damage
data gathered under the auspices of CIGRE(Miguel et al., 2007). Hence, a novel methodology is
required for vulnerability analysis of lattice type transmission towers using heuristic knowledge of
experts and validating the outcomes with known data points. The methodology presented in this paper
is an attempt towards this end. The vulnerability methodology is further extended to pull-down effects
from other connected towers in a transmission line.

3. Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM)

The tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) is a modular software package developed at Geoscience
Australia for assessing the impact and risk of cyclones on Australian communities. TCRM consists of
four modules – an input module, a statistical analysis module, a synthetic track generation module and
a wind-field calculation module.
The input module converts data into a single format to be used by the other modules. The statistical
analysis module allows generation of distributions of a tropical cyclone’s (TC) parameters – genesis,
location, speed, bearing, rate of intensification and magnitude (where applicable). Autocorrelation
coefficients and variances of the TC are also calculated by this module. The module uses kernel
density estimation method to derive one-dimensional and two-dimensional TC parameters on a grid
fitting the region of interest. The synthetic track generation module relies on observations of TC
behavior in the region of interest to generate changes in TC speed and direction modeled as an
autoregressive process based on a methodology described elsewhere (Arthur et al., 2008). Return
period for wind hazard is determined from historical records as outlined by (Hall and Jewson, 2007)
and the return period for wind hazard in Australia is discussed in more detail in (Arthur et al., 2008).

4. Methodology
Lattice type transmission towers are highly tuned structures and design engineers have a wealth of
practical experience with the strength and weaknesses of various designs, gained through structural
models, wind tunnel tests, static load tests and in-service failures. Tower failures in the field provide a
very valuable feed back as to the mode and threshold of failure. However, definite wind velocities
resulting in failures are not readily available due to a general lack of instrumentation and records of
local wind gusts at tower locations. The wind velocity is estimated from some structural damage in
many cases, rather than the reverse. To compensate for the lack information on wind measurements
corresponding with tower failure, heuristic methods were found to be an appropriate method for
determining the vulnerability of transmission towers in this study. The sorts of information the
methodology uses in determining limit of failure of a tower are structural design, age, wind spans,
levels of containment and maintenance levels. Conductor types were also considered in pull-down
analysis. The material properties of the conductor connected to the tower is an important factor in
determining its pulling behavior. For example, aluminum conductors tend to snap off under load, so

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

preventing transfer of load to other towers. The tower/conductor/tower cluster introduces further
complexities in the analysis. The following subsections describe the methods in determining failure
capacity of towers, developed for a pragmatic assessment of tower vulnerabilities, followed by
principles of pull-down analysis. Computational details are not presented due to space limitations.

4.1. Conductor Load Savings in Electricity Transmission Towers

Tower assets are designed to a specified design wind speed (Vd) and design wind span (Sd). However
due to conductor length being shorter in installation in most cases, than the designed wind span, the
actual wind span (Sw) could be significantly lower than Sd. This increases its wind resistance and
hence its actual wind capacity is a higher than the designed wind capacity. A utilization factor (u) is
defined to account for the conductor load savings and is used in determining its loading capacity in
reference to its designed capacity. The wind speed at nominal height of the tower is further adjusted to
the wind speed to a 10 m reference height, using boundary layer wind profile for terrain categories 3/4
for Cyclonic regions C & D as specified in the Australian Standard (AS/NZS1170.2:2002, 2002). This
adjusted wind speed is called the adjusted capacity of tower (Vc) in m/s.

sw
Figure 1. Schematic showing the
designed wing span and actual wind span
sd in a lattice type double circuit suspension
tower.

The utilization factor is dependent on the type of circuit being carried by towers in the transmission
line, the designed wind span and the actual wind span. Utilization factor, is calculated from the
equation:
⎛ S ⎞
u = 1 − k ⎜⎜1 − w ⎟⎟ (1)
⎝ Sd ⎠

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

where, u is percentage utilization, Sw is the actual wind span on either side of a tower in m, Sd is the
design wind span in m, and k is proportion of conductor load borne by a tower based on the type of
circuit being carried, k=0.33 for a single circuit and k=0.5 for a double circuit.
The adjusted tower capacity with correction factor for height from nominal height to 10 m height of a
tower is calculated by the equation:
Vd ( h = Z ) M Z ,cat ( h =10 m )
Vc = × (2)
u M Z ,cat ( h = Z )
where, Vc is adjusted failure wind speed for a transmission tower in m/s, Mz,cat(h=10m) is boundary layer
flow factor at 10m read from the Australian Standard for cyclonic winds in regions C or D, Mz,cat(h=Z) is
boundary layer flow factor at Z read from the Australian Standard for cyclonic winds in region C or D,
Z is the nominated height of the transmission tower, u is percentage utilization of the transmission
tower, and Vd is the design wind speed of the transmission tower in m/s at the nominated height.
The adjusted tower capacity differs in different directions and the wind velocity generated in a
cyclone needs to be compared to directional components. The methodology involves computation of
directional orientation of each tower with respect to wind direction at the given location at each time
step in the simulation. Probability of collapse was then computed using heuristically derived
vulnerability curves. Maximum probability of collapse for the tower was then taken over the complete
duration of the simulation.

4.2. Mechanisms of transmission tower failure

The primary mechanism of failure for towers under wind loads is due to the direct action of wind in
extreme wind events such as cyclones. The electricity transmission line consists of suspension towers
where the transmission line travels in a straight line and strain or angled towers where there are
changes in direction. Strain towers are additionally reinforced with guys in comparison to suspension
towers. The primary mechanisms of transmission tower failure are – failure of suspension towers and
failure of strain or angled towers. The secondary mechanisms of failure arise from connectivity with
neighbors through conductors and through proximity to other transmission lines. Collapse of one
tower leads to additional pulling load on other towers connected to it in addition to dynamic wind
loads. A cluster of transmission towers fail from initiation of a primary failure due to wind and then
subsequent pull down of others neighbors, the phenomenon is referred to as cascade failure (Abdallah
et al., 2008). Other mechanisms of failure are towers falling on parallel or intersecting transmission
lines in close proximity. Only the cascade failures are addressed in this paper.

4.3. Directional wind effects on rectangular based suspension towers

Lattice type high voltage electricity transmission towers are designed to resist wind loads directed
towards a direction normal to the transmission line. The towers are stronger along the transmission
line by virtue of conductors connecting them to their neighbors. Rectangular base suspension towers
are weaker at an oblique angle in a narrow sectored band around the normal direction (Fujimura et al.,
2007). Figure 2 shows cross-section of a rectangular based suspension tower and the weaker sector
referred to in this paper as ‘vulnerable direction’. This zone lies within sectors covered by 11.5o to
28.75o and 191.5o to 208.75o as shown in figure 2. On the other hand, square based suspension towers
and strain towers have only two zones to be considered – conductor direction and the normal direction,
by virtue of the symmetry of square towers. Reinforcements in strain towers makes them stronger than
suspension towers and their directional vulnerabilities are also dependent on shape – rectangular or
square base.

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

o
o 41.25
138.75
Conductor Direction Normal 2
o
28.75
o
151.5

Vulnerable

o
11.5
o
168.5

Normal

o
191.5
o
348.5

Vulnerable

Conductor Direction
208.75O o
321.25

Normal 2
o
221.25
o
318.75

Figure 2. Schematic showing vulnerability zones defined for a rectangular based suspension
tower.

4.4. Vulnerability of transmission towers

The concept of fragility functions is well established in assessing building damage due to natural
hazards such as earthquakes and severe wind. Fragility functions are probabilistic mapping between a
physical hazard parameter impacting on an asset, to a level of damage. In this research, the concept of
fragility functions has been applied to high voltage electricity transmission towers being impacted by
severe wind. Probability of collapse for a transmission tower was mapped against the ratio of wind
speed from a wind event to the adjusted capacity of a tower. Other damage states for transmission
towers such as partial collapse, equipment damage and conductor breakage were not mapped in this
study, as tower collapse imparts a greater impost on the electricity system recovery. In a series of four
workshops, industry experts consisting of wind engineers and design engineers nominated threshold of
wind speeds for tower collapse for different types of towers and types of conductors. These thresholds
were plotted as series of log-normal curves for different vulnerability directions and then adjusted with
data from a past cyclonic event for which regional wind speeds were available. Sample curves for
rectangular based suspension towers are presented in figure 3.

4.5. Pull-down analysis

High voltage lattice type transmission towers often collapse in groups. A falling tower tends to pull its
neighbour as it is connected to it through conductors. If the tower being pulled is close to its installed
capacity to bear load, then it is likely to collapse as well. This phenomenon is represented if figure 4.
Each pull-down event is treated as independent and the following law of survival is applied,
Pc = 1 − ((1 − Pd ) × (1 − PS 1 ) × (1 − PS 2 ) × (1 − PS 3 ) × K) (3)

where, Pc is the probability of collapse from all mechanisms, Pd is the probability of collapse from the
direct action of wind, Ps1, Ps2, Ps3, … are the probabilities of collapsed from being pulled down by
neighbors. Factors such as type of neighboring towers and conductor types on transmission line were
accounted for in determining probability of pull-down. The analysis takes location factors and

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

connection characteristics for determining probability of collapse from each mechanism and then
combines it into an overall probability of collapse.
For discrete tower collapse outcomes required for a scenario analysis, a threshold probability of
collapse is applied on the overall probability of collapse, above which towers are deemed to collapse.
The summation of probabilities for a section of transmission line needs to be justified within the
discrete outcomes, and hence the threshold is naturally constrained.

Vulnerability of Rectangular Based Suspension

Towers to Cyclonic Winds

1
0.9
Probability of Collapse

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1
Ratio of Event Wind Speed to Adjusted Design Capacity of
Towers

Normal angle of attack Vulnerable angle of attack

Figure 3. The graph shows fragility curves for rectangular based suspension towers for wind
blowing in the normal and vulnerable directions.

a-4 a-3 a-2 a-1 a a+1 a+2 a+3 a+4

Figure 4. A tower ‘a’ is likely to be pulled by its collapsing neighbours on either side – ‘a+1’,
‘a+2’, ‘a+3’, ‘a+4’, ‘a-1’, ‘a-2’, ‘a-3’ and/or ‘a-4’.

5. Results and Discussion

The tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to simulate a cyclone at a location in Australia to
evaluate a scenario of damage for electricity transmission network. The objective was to evaluate the
response of the Transmission Network Service Provider (TNSP) and local civic authorities to muster
resources for recovery and subsequently analyse the impacts of shortfall in electricity on community
and industry. The cyclone model generated wind velocities for a selected cyclone track, in a grid of
10m × 10m resolution. The cyclone model also determined the return period or frequency of the

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

expected event based on historical regional wind data. The transition of winds was translated into 3
second peak gusts for the duration of the cyclone at each transmission tower location. The peak gusts
were then sampled to analyse the magnitude and direction of wind impacting on each tower under
consideration through code written in Python. The collapse probability for individual towers was then
estimated using heuristically derived vulnerability curves for the type of tower and peak wind gust
impacting of the defined sectors of tower cross-section using information derived from GIS. Influence
of neighbouring collapsing towers connected through conductors was then analysed to provide an
overall probability of collapse for each tower. The outcomes were then put through a threshold value
to provide discrete collapse outcomes for each tower. Figures 5 and 6 present an example of the
collapse probability for each tower and discrete outcomes respectively for selected sections of 275 kV
lines.

Figure 5. Overall probability of collapse Figure 6. Discrete collapse outcomes for

transmission towers analysed in a cyclone transmission towers analysed in a
scenario. cyclone scenario.

The outcomes from this analysis enabled determination for recovery times and resource
requirements for the TNSP. The computational capability enabled simulation of various scenarios with
different return period cyclones for a particular cyclone track. This enabled evaluation of the threshold
of a resource constrained recovery of the electrical system. The results are then graphically presented
to display the location of the expected tower collapse and line feeders affected. The outcomes from
this analysis was used as an input into further analysis of electrical system dynamic models and
economic models to evaluate community and industry impacts.

6. Conclusions
The paper outlines a methodology for analyzing vulnerability of lattice type high voltage electricity
transmission towers using heuristic information. There are often reports of actual tower collapse in
media and industry journals, however this information cannot be directly used to develop vulnerability
relationships to wind due to the fact that reliable wind speeds impacting on towers is not readily
available at the location in question. Weather stations are usually located several hundred kilometres
from the incident from which regional wind speeds are difficult to estimate due to topographic
shielding effects. The methodology presented in the paper enables evaluation of scenarios for a TNSP
to develop an envelope for their capability to recover from a cyclonic event with resource constraints,
study flow on consequences on other utilities, communities and business due to lack of power
availability. This information may then be used to either provide contingencies or devise
reinforcement strategies to reduce impacts on community and industry.
The electricity industry has extensive expertise in modelling, designing and testing of lattice type
towers, however the dynamic behaviour in severe wind is not well understood. By combining different

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WCCM/APCOM 2010 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 10 (2010) 012004 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/10/1/012004

expertise in wind engineering and structural design of towers, this research developed a reliable
method for analysing wind vulnerability of towers. Future research in this area will be focussed on
extending the methodology to primary failure in different types of towers, extending the methodology
for analysing other mechanisms of secondary collapse due to parallel and intersecting lines. Some
improvements in the cyclone model are also being incorporated such as smoothening of multipliers
within grids to provide smoother transitions for cyclone impact parameters.

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