Lecture-2

Probability and Statistics

1/7
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(B ∩ C) − P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

2/7
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(B ∩ C) − P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

Problem: A problem in statistics is given to three students A,B, and C

whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 3/4 and 1/4, respectively.
What is the probability that the problem will be solved if all of them try
independently?

2/7
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(B ∩ C) − P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

Problem: A problem in statistics is given to three students A,B, and C

whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 3/4 and 1/4, respectively.
What is the probability that the problem will be solved if all of them try
independently?

Solution: P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 3/4, and P(C) = 1/4, then

2/7
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(B ∩ C) − P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

Problem: A problem in statistics is given to three students A,B, and C

whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 3/4 and 1/4, respectively.
What is the probability that the problem will be solved if all of them try
independently?

Solution: P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 3/4, and P(C) = 1/4, then

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(B ∩ C) − P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C) =
P(A)+P(B)+P(C)−P(A)P(B)−P(B)P(C)−P(C)P(A)+P(A)P(B)P(C)
= 29/32.
Aliter:

2/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

At least four successes means four successes, five successes or six
successes.

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

At least four successes means four successes, five successes or six
successes.
6
(2/3)4 (1/3)2 .


The probability of four successes = 4

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

At least four successes means four successes, five successes or six
successes.
6
(2/3)4 (1/3)2 .


The probability of four successes = 4

The probability of five successes = 65 (2/3)5 (1/3)

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

At least four successes means four successes, five successes or six
successes.
6
(2/3)4 (1/3)2 .


The probability of four successes = 4

The probability of five successes = 65 (2/3)5 (1/3)

The probability of six successes = 66 (2/3)6

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

At least four successes means four successes, five successes or six
successes.
6
(2/3)4 (1/3)2 .


The probability of four successes = 4

The probability of five successes = 65 (2/3)5 (1/3)

The probability of six successes = 66 (2/3)6

Only one case is possible, and hence all the above events will mutually
exclusive, so

3/7
Problem: An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the
chance that in the next six trials, there will be at least four successes.

Solution: p = 2/3, q = 1/3.

At least four successes means four successes, five successes or six
successes.
6
(2/3)4 (1/3)2 .


The probability of four successes = 4

The probability of five successes = 65 (2/3)5 (1/3)

The probability of six successes = 66 (2/3)6

Only one case is possible, and hence all the above events will mutually
exclusive, so
the required probability is
6
(2/3)4 (1/3)2 + 65 (2/3)5 (1/3) + 6
(2/3)6 = 496




4 6 36
.

3/7
1 Problem 1: A computer program is tested by 3 independent events.
When there is an error, these tests will discover it with probabilities 0.2,
0.3, and 0.5, respectively. Suppose that the program contains an error.
What is the probability that it will be found by at least one test?
Ans: 0.72

2 Problem 2: Suppose that after 10 years of service, 40% of computers

have problems with motherboards (MB), 30% have problems with hard
drives (HD), and 15% have problems with both MB and HD. What is the
probability that a 10 year old computer still has fully functioning MB and
HD?
Ans: 0.45

4/7
Law of Total Probability

It relates the unconditional probability of an event with its conditional

probabilities.

5/7
Law of Total Probability

It relates the unconditional probability of an event with its conditional

probabilities.

If S is a sample space with a mutually exclusive and exhaustive events

B1 , B2 , . . . , Bk , then
k
P
P(A) = P(A|Bi )P(Bi ).
i=1

for some event A in S.

5/7
Problems

Problem: Forest A occupies 50% of the total land in a certain park and
20% of the plants in the forest are poisonous. Forest B occupies 30% of
the total land and 40% of the plants in it are poisonous. Forest C
occupies the remaining remaining 20% of land and 70% plants there are
poisonous. If we randomly enter the park and pick a plant from the
ground, what is the probability that it will be poisonous?

6/7
Problems

Problem: Forest A occupies 50% of the total land in a certain park and
20% of the plants in the forest are poisonous. Forest B occupies 30% of
the total land and 40% of the plants in it are poisonous. Forest C
occupies the remaining remaining 20% of land and 70% plants there are
poisonous. If we randomly enter the park and pick a plant from the
ground, what is the probability that it will be poisonous?

Solution: P(A) = 50/100, P(P|A) = 20/100;

6/7
Problems

Problem: Forest A occupies 50% of the total land in a certain park and
20% of the plants in the forest are poisonous. Forest B occupies 30% of
the total land and 40% of the plants in it are poisonous. Forest C
occupies the remaining remaining 20% of land and 70% plants there are
poisonous. If we randomly enter the park and pick a plant from the
ground, what is the probability that it will be poisonous?

Solution: P(A) = 50/100, P(P|A) = 20/100;

P(B) = 30/100, P(P|B) = 40/100;

6/7
Problems

Problem: Forest A occupies 50% of the total land in a certain park and
20% of the plants in the forest are poisonous. Forest B occupies 30% of
the total land and 40% of the plants in it are poisonous. Forest C
occupies the remaining remaining 20% of land and 70% plants there are
poisonous. If we randomly enter the park and pick a plant from the
ground, what is the probability that it will be poisonous?

Solution: P(A) = 50/100, P(P|A) = 20/100;

P(B) = 30/100, P(P|B) = 40/100;
P(C) = 20/100, P(P|C) = 70/100.

6/7
Problems

Problem: Forest A occupies 50% of the total land in a certain park and
20% of the plants in the forest are poisonous. Forest B occupies 30% of
the total land and 40% of the plants in it are poisonous. Forest C
occupies the remaining remaining 20% of land and 70% plants there are
poisonous. If we randomly enter the park and pick a plant from the
ground, what is the probability that it will be poisonous?

Solution: P(A) = 50/100, P(P|A) = 20/100;

P(B) = 30/100, P(P|B) = 40/100;
P(C) = 20/100, P(P|C) = 70/100.

P(P) = P(P|A)P(A) + P(P|B)P(B) + P(P|C)P(C).

6/7
Problems

Problem: Forest A occupies 50% of the total land in a certain park and
20% of the plants in the forest are poisonous. Forest B occupies 30% of
the total land and 40% of the plants in it are poisonous. Forest C
occupies the remaining remaining 20% of land and 70% plants there are
poisonous. If we randomly enter the park and pick a plant from the
ground, what is the probability that it will be poisonous?

Solution: P(A) = 50/100, P(P|A) = 20/100;

P(B) = 30/100, P(P|B) = 40/100;
P(C) = 20/100, P(P|C) = 70/100.

P(P) = P(P|A)P(A) + P(P|B)P(B) + P(P|C)P(C).

P(P) = 0.36

6/7
Problems of Law of Total Probability

Problem 1: Suppose there are three bags containing 2 white and 3

black, 3 white and 2 black, and 4 white and 1 black balls respectively.
There is equal probability of each bag being chosen. One ball is drawn
from a bag chosen at random. What is the probability that a white ball is
drawn?
Ans: 3/5.

Problem 2: Under good weather conditions, 80% of flights arrive on

time. During bad weather, only 30% of flights arrive on time. Tomorrow,
the chance of good weather is 60%. What is the probability that your
flight will arrive on time?
Ans: 0.6

7/7