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Probablity Course Outline

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Probablity Course Outline

Uploaded by

ipm06devanshagandhi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Course Title : Probability

Credits : 1 (20 Sessions)


Type : Compulsory
Session Duration : 75 minutes
Term : Term-II-IPM06
Year : 2024
Faculty : Dr. Prashant Gupta
_________________________________________________________________

Introduction:

The course starts with discussion on Principles of Counting and Axioms of Probability. It
focusses on understanding Random Variables and its type. It discusses characteristics of
few types of Discreet random variable and Continuous random variables; and their
respective probability distributions. Joint distribution, Conditional distribution and
Properties of Expectations are also discussed. It also introduces concepts of Uncertainty,
Surprise and Entropy.

Course Objectives:

The objective of the course is to see the relevance of concepts of theory of probability
and understand its application using examples from daily life. It aims to make
participants familiar that business problems having risk components are using tools of
probability and there are a few occasions when it’s easier to get solutions using simple
logic and such solution matches with those which are obtained using mathematics of
probability. It intends to link common sense to calculations.

Pedagogy:

The course will be lecture driven but at the same time, it will be highly interactive. The
class participation aims to link the concepts of probability using happenings of the day to
day life. The participants are expected to prepare themselves for the session as per the
scheduled topic from any resources which they are able to understand easily. It can be
video or text or graphics. There will be enough opportunity for class participation
including in-class problem-solving exercises.

Evaluation Scheme

Class Participation 20%


Surprise Quizzes 20%
Mid Term Exam 30%
End Term Exam 30%

1
Text Book:

● Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences


https://faculty.cengage.com/titles/9781305251809

References

1. A First Course in Probability, 9/e by Sheldon Ross. Publisher: Pearson Education.


ISBN: 9789353065607.
2. Introduction to Probability Models, 9/e by Sheldon Ross. Publisher: Pearson
Education. ISBN-13: 978-0-12-598062-3

Learning Outcomes:

Students will be able to conceptualize the importance of probability in the area of


economics, finance and business related activities.They will be able to describe situations
in which humans are bad at probabilistic reasoning. It will lay foundations in probability
and distribution theory, data analysis and the axioms (laws) of probability. Able to define
the sample space, probabilities using conditional probability, rule of total probability and
Bayes’ theorem, Central limit Theorem, and Markov Chains.

Session Plan

Session Topic Reference


No.
1-2 Combinatorial Analysis- Basic Principles of Counting, Permutations Chapter 1 “A First
and Combinations, Multinomial Coefficients, The number of integer Course in Probability”
solutions of equations by Sheldon Ross

3 -4 Axioms of Probability- Sample Space and Events; Simple Chapter 2 “A First


Propositions, Probability as a Continuous Set Function Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross
5-6 Conditional Probability and Independence- Baye’s Formula, Chapter 3 “A First
Independent events Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross
7-8 Discreet Random Variables – Bernoulli random variable, Binomial Chapter 4 “A First
random variable, Geometric random variable and Poisson random Course in Probability”
variable by Sheldon Ross
9-10 Continuous Random Variables- Uniform random variable, Chapter 5 “A First
Exponential random variable, Gamma random variable and Normal Course in Probability”
random variable by Sheldon Ross
11-12 Jointly Distributed Random Variables- Joint Distribution Functions, Chapter 6 “A First
Independent Random Variables, Sums of Independent Random Course in Probability”
Variables, by Sheldon Ross

2
13-14 Conditional Distributions: Discrete Case and Continuous Case, Chapter 6 “A First
Order Statistics, Joint Probability Distribution of Functions of Course in Probability”
Random Variables, Exchangeable Random Variables by Sheldon Ross
15-16 Properties of Expectation- Expectations of Sums of Random Chapter 7 “A First
Variables; Moments of the Number of Events that Occur; Course in Probability”
Covariance, Variance of Sums, and Correlations; Conditional by Sheldon Ross
Expectation and Prediction,
Moment Generating Functions
17-18 Limit Theorems- Chebyshev’s Inequality and the Weak Law of Chapter 8 “A First
Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorem, Course in Probability”
The Strong Law of Large Numbers by Sheldon Ross
19-20 Introduction to - Poisson Process, Markov Chains, Surprise, Chapter 9 “A First
Uncertainty, and Entropy Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross

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