Weather analysis and forecasting

Weather Forecasting History

❖ The history of atmospheric sciences begins with weather forecasting.

❖ Forecasting originally grew out of three needs: for farmers to produce crops, sailors to
survive at sea and populations to avoid weather related disasters such as flood, cyclones,
hurricanes etc.
❖ Every society has forecasted wind, rain and other weather events.

❖ In 1870 forecasting based on observations and experience became a profession.

❖ Initial data required for forecasting where gathered by observers who used instruments
that measured winds, pressure, temperature, humidity and rainfall.

Weather forecast
❑ It is a scientific estimate of the weather condition at some future time.

❑ Forecast are usually expressed in terms of weather variables like temperature,

cloudiness, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and direction.
❑ Weather forecasts also include hazardous weather like thunderstorm, flooding,
hurricane, tornadoes, winter weather and extreme heats

Weather Analysis
• Assessing current atmospheric conditions. It involves collecting, transmitting and
compiling millions of observational data
Weather forecasting involves a combination of computer models, observations, and a
knowledge of trends and patterns.

Weather Forecasting Methods (details are available in pdf format)

1) Persistence forecasting– a forecast identical to the previous day’s conditions
2) Climatological forecasting–a forecast identical to the average conditions for that day
3) Numerical Weather Prediction -through numerical calculation
4)Ensemble Forecast- because of the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere, number of forecasts
are produced by using same comuter model but slightly altering the initial conditions.
5)Analog Method- forecast is done by comparing with a weather patterns from past
6)Trend Forecasting-Extrapolation of speed and direction of weather phenomena (like cyclone,
fronts, areas of clouds and precipitation etc).

Time ranges of weather forecast (details are available in pdf format)

1. Nowcasting- for a few hours (e.g., short lived severe weather conditions like hailstorm,
tornadoes, microbrusts etc)
2. Very short range forecast - 0 to 12 hrs
3. Short range forecast - 12 to a few days
4. Medium range forecast - a few days to two weeks
5. Extended range forecast - two weeks and beyond
6. Monthly and seasonal forecasts

Use of advance predicted weather information in

•Transportation
• Aviation
•Agriculture
•National planning
•Warming against extreme weather conditions
•Solar and wind power sectors

To forecasts we need to model the

(i) dynamics of the atmosphere (e.g., winds),
(ii) the physical processes (e.g., the formation of clouds, Polar Startospheric clouds, rain
etc)
(iii) the processes that control the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g., emissions
and chemical reactions).
In addition, the model simulations are merged with satellite observations of the atmosphere to
ensure the forecasts are as accurate as possible.
 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES

Source: Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling

Mark Z Jacobson

(For additional knowledge only, not for exams)

Some terminology
Hydrometeor: An ensemble of liquid, solid or mixed phase pre-dominantly water containing
particles suspended or falling through the air.
A hydrometeor particle is a single particle within a hydrometeor. Examples: cloud drops, ice
crystals, raindrops, snowflakes, hailstone.
In brief, Meteorologists use equations to create mathematical models of the atmosphere.
Thus by utilising data on initial atmospheric conditions, they solve these equations to
predict a future state.
WHAT IS A MODEL
A model is a mathematical representation of a process.
An atmospheric (computer) model is a computer coded representation of dynamical, physical,
chemical and radiative processes in the atmosphere.
 ❖ Here, the time dependent processes are mathematically described by ordinary
differential equations and known as prognostic equations.
❖ The Space and time dependent processes are described by partial differential
equations.
❖ The time independent equations are known as diagnostic equations.

❖ Ordinary and partial differential equations are replaced with finite difference or other
approximations, then computerized and solved.
❖ Modelling requires solutions to ordinary differential equations, partial differential
equations, parameterized equations, and empirical equations.
❖ Parameterized equation is an equation in which one parameter is expressed in terms of
at least two other parameters full stop the equation of state with which relates pressure to
temperature in air density is a parameterized equation.
❖ Empirical equation is an equation in which one parameter is expressed as an empirical
function (for example a polynomial fit) of at least one other parameter.
❖ Parameterized equations are derived from insight, empirical equation does not always
make physical sense, instead reproduce observed results under a variety of conditions

Atmospheric computer modelling :-

❖ The Science of atmospheric computer modelling started in 1948 where models have
been applied to study weather, climate and air pollution.
❖ Historically, meteorological models were used to simulate weather, climate and climate
change on urban, regional and global scales and photochemical models to study urban
regional and global air pollution, emission, chemistry and processes and transport of
pollutants.
❖ Now a days, both the meteorological and photochemical models are combined together
to study atmospheric chemistry and dynamical meteorology. Such models are generally
termed as climate models. For example: WRF-Chem model.
❖ In 1950s laboratory work was undertaken to understand better information of
photochemical and London type smog. In 1970 atmospheric pollution problems
aside from urban air pollution were increasingly recognised. Such problems
included regional acid deposition, global ozone reduction, Antarctic ozone depletion
and global climate change.
❖ In 1966 and 1970 air pollution models termed as air quality models where expanded to
two and three dimensions. Before that box models simulating atmospheric chemical
reactions were readily implemented.
 (For additional knowledge only, not for
exams)

•
Equations are solved to predict the future state, using data on initial atmospheric condition.
 SATELLITES IN WEATHER FORECASTING
The Weather Satellite is a type of satellite that is used to monitor the weather and climate
of the earth.
 SATEL
LITE S IN
WEATHER FORECASTING
Orbiting satellites are platforms from which the atmosphere and surfaces below can be
observed from the outside. satellites can be polar orbiting covering the entire earth
asynchronously or geostationary hovering over the same spot of the equator .

Characteristics of a Weather Satellite

1. Weather satellites are orbiting platforms from which onboard instruments can sense light
and heat energy from the atmosphere and underlying surfaces.
2. Because weather satellites can view a large area at one time, anywhere on Earth, they
provide meteorological information over the oceans and sparsely populated land regions.
3. Weather satellite pictures are received as pixels (composites of tiny blocks) of varying
energy intensities, often shown in shades of gray. The area each block covers determines
how detailed the image can be. The smaller the block, the greater the detail in a satellite
image.
4. In addition to sending back pictures of Earth, weather satellites can determine the
temperature and water vapor content at different heights in the atmosphere. They can also
monitor the ozone layer and detect energetic particles in the space environment.

Courtesy American Meteorological Society

 TYPES OF WEATHER SATELLITES

Polar Orbiting Weather Satellites

❑ One type of weather satellite orbit passes near Earth’s poles making north and south
journeys at an altitude of about 800 kilometers (500 miles).
❑ Polar orbiting satellites scan a strip of Earth, taking less than 2 hours to complete an
orbit. With each pass, they survey a strip approximately 1900 km (1200 mi.) wide that is
further west because of Earth’s eastward rotation. Many hours elapse between passes
over the same mid or low latitude location.
❑ These satellites provide us with information on the condition of the ozone “hole” and
composite pictures of snow cover and ocean surface temperatures.

Geostationary Weather Satellites

❖ A second type of weather satellite orbit is located 35,800 kilometers (22,300 miles)
directly over the equator. These satellites make one revolution, moving in the same
direction as Earth’s rotation, in the time it takes Earth to make one rotation. This keeps
them above the same spot on the equator, making them appear stationary, hence their
name, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES).

Satellite Images: Types

Visible Satellite Images
⮚ Visible satellite images are views produced from reflected sunlight. Thus, these pictures
look like pictures made with an ordinary camera, available during daylight hours only.
⮚ On visible satellite imagery, clouds appear white and the ground and water surfaces are
dark gray or black.
⮚ Low clouds and fog are usually distinguishable from nearby land surfaces. In addition,
the hazy conditions associated with air pollution can be tracked.
 ⮚ The shadows of thunderstorm clouds can be seen cast on lower clouds in the late
afternoon. Snow cover can be monitored because it does not move as clouds do. Land
features, such as streams, can be visible.

Infrared Satellite Images

⮚ Infrared satellite images are produced by the infrared (heat) energy Earth radiates to
space. Since Earth is always radiating heat, infrared images are available both during day
and night.
⮚ On infrared images, warm land and water surfaces appear dark gray or black. The cold
tops of high clouds are white and lower-level clouds, being warmer, are gray.
⮚ Low clouds and fog are difficult to detect in the infrared when their temperatures are
nearly the same as the nearby Earth surfaces.
⮚ The enhanced images make it possible to keep track of land and oceanic surface
temperatures. These temperatures play major roles in making and modifying weather.
The high, cold clouds associated with severe weather are also easily monitored.
⮚ Enhanced imagery can be interpreted to produce rainfall rate estimates. This information
is used in flash-flood forecasting.

(Courtesy American Meteorological Society)

Water Vapor Images

⮚ Solid, liquid and vapor forms of water interact with specific ranges of infrared energy.
Specially tuned geostationary weather satellite sensors can detect water vapor in the
atmosphere, in addition to clouds.
⮚ The water vapor sensors aboard weather satellites reveal regions of high atmospheric
water vapor concentration in the troposphere between altitudes of 3 and 7 km (10,000 to
22,000 ft). These regions, sometimes resembling gigantic swirls or plumes, can be seen to
flow within and through broad-scale weather patterns.
⮚ Recent studies suggest that, at any one time, atmospheric water vapor may be found
concentrated in several large flowing streams forming the equivalent of “rivers in the
sky”.

(Courtesy American Meteorological Society)

Weather Features in Satellite Imagery :-
⮚ Hurricanes look like pinwheels of clouds. More often than not, the beginnings of
hurricanes are detected from satellite views, because they occur over broad expanses of
oceans.
⮚ Large comma-shaped cloud shields give shape and form to mid-latitude Lows (wave
cyclones).
⮚ Clouds from which showers fall can look like grains of sand, especially on visible
satellite pictures. Thunderstorms appear as blobs or chains of blobs. Their high tops
spread downwind from them as wispy cirrus clouds. They may have neighboring lower
clouds appearing as tiny curved “tails” to the southwest. Such “tails” can also be
indicators of the possibility of tornadoes.
⮚ Movements of cloud patterns detected by viewing sequential satellite images, indicate
the circulations of broad-scale weather systems.
⮚ Wind speeds can be estimated at different levels and even upper-air jet streams can be
identified.
⮚ Meteorologists use satellite images to determine cloud shapes, heights, and type.
Changes in these cloud properties, along with cloud movement, provide valuable
information to weather forecasters to determine what is happening and what is likely to
happen to weather in the hours and days ahead.
⮚ Visible, infrared, and water vapor satellite imagery complement one another. There are
weather features that can be clearly seen in one kind of image that are difficult to see in
the others.

(Courtesy American Meteorological Society)

SATELLITES IN WEATHER FORECASTING:-

Meteorologists use satellite information to report current weather status and predict future
weather/climate
▪ The meteorological satellites provide a synoptic measurement of weather parameters at
frequent intervals.
▪ The satellite images on cloud cover and various parameters such as winds, rainfall, sea
surface temperature etc., have become an integral part of weather forecasting.
▪ The satellite also provides data for forecasting of sea state, sea surface wind vector,
coastal climate and weather.
 Weather forecasting basics using satellite images (examples)
• Using satellite images at a particular time, one can predict based on the wind direction,
where the clouds will move to form precipitation.
• Satellite can very nicely identify low pressure region (triggering of a cyclone) in water
bodies (Ocean), through images, whose movement can be predicted easily based on wind
direction again.
• Positioning of ITCZ is also well captured through satellite imageries.
• Information on SST is another advantage of satellite information used for weather
forecasting.

Additionally
For live updates on weather and forecasting and many more information (including jobs) please
visit Indian Meteorological Department’s, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt of India, Websites
below
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/
https://www.isro.gov.in/applications/weather-forecasting
Also read the Article in following link
https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/spinoff/
NASA_Satellite_Data_and_Analysis_Make_Earth_Better