Reliability Assessment of Wind Farm Capacity for Electricity Demand

Abstract

This report examines the reliability of a wind farm in meeting the dynamic electricity
demand of a small town. The study aims to analyze the wind farm's capacity to
consistently generate power despite seasonal and daily fluctuations in wind speed, as well
as varying electricity consumption patterns. A detailed analysis was conducted to
determine optimal wind turbine configurations, balancing the need for reliable energy
supply with economic considerations such as installation and maintenance costs. The
methodology includes statistical modeling of wind patterns using Normal and Weibull
distributions, simulation of turbine performance across seasons, and a thorough cost
analysis to assess the financial viability of different configurations. Key findings
highlight the strengths and limitations of wind energy, demonstrating its potential as a
sustainable energy source during high-wind seasons and its challenges during periods of
low wind speeds. The report underscores the importance of strategic turbine placement,
potential integration with hybrid systems, and energy storage solutions to enhance overall
reliability. In conclusion, the study supports wind energy as a feasible and competitive
alternative to traditional power sources, with recommendations for improving reliability
and efficiency based on the data.

Objective

To assess the reliability of a wind farm in consistently meeting the fluctuating electricity
demand of a small town. This includes analyzing the system's ability to maintain a
consistent power supply despite variations in wind speed and power demand. The goal is
to identify optimal configurations for achieving reliable energy generation while
managing costs and risks.

Parameters

1. Demand Reliability Requirements

● Minimum and Maximum Demand:

 ○ The wind farm must meet a minimum electricity demand of 1,687 kW and
handle peak demands up to 6,000 kW.
● Demand Variations:
○ There are daily and seasonal variations in electricity demand. This includes
identifying peak demand periods that require increased power generation
capacity.
● Target Reliability Levels:
○ The system aims to achieve high reliability standards, with a target of 99%
availability of the required power, ensuring that electricity supply meets
demand consistently.

2. Wind Turbine System

● Number of Turbines:
○ The study considers a range of 2 to 9 turbines to determine their impact on
power reliability. Increasing the number of turbines may enhance reliability
but involves higher costs.
● Wind Speed Operational Range:
○ Wind turbines are optimized for wind speeds between 3 m/s and 14 m/s.
Speeds below or above this range significantly affect power output and
overall efficiency.
● Contribution to Power Reliability:
○ Each turbine's performance is analyzed to understand its contribution to the
overall system's ability to meet power demand, balancing the trade-off
between the number of turbines and system reliability.

3. Environmental Factors and Variability

● Wind Speed Fluctuations:

○ Wind speeds vary both daily and seasonally, impacting the farm's capacity
to generate consistent energy. Seasonal patterns indicate periods of high and
low wind speeds, affecting power reliability.
● Randomized Wind Changes:
○ The model accounts for random fluctuations in wind speed, simulating
real-world conditions that influence power generation unpredictably. This
highlights the importance of robust system design to handle variability and
maintain consistent output
Constraints
1. Limitations in Turbine Capacity and Variability in Power Generation

● Turbine Capacity:
○ Each turbine has a maximum energy output capacity based on its design
specifications. This limits the maximum power generation that a single
turbine or a group of turbines can provide, impacting the ability to meet
peak electricity demand.
● Wind Speed Dependence:
○ The efficiency and output of wind turbines are directly dependent on wind
speed. Variability in wind conditions means that power generation can
fluctuate, especially outside the optimal wind speed range of 3 m/s to 14
m/s. Lower-than-expected wind speeds may result in insufficient power,
while high speeds may exceed turbine safety limits, leading to operational
challenges.

2. Reliability Trade-offs When Adjusting Turbine Numbers to Match Demand

● Impact of Increasing Turbines:

○ Adding more turbines can increase power reliability and capacity to handle
peak demand, but this comes with diminishing returns, especially during
low-wind periods. There’s a balance between increasing turbine numbers
for reliability and managing higher costs.
● Efficiency vs. Cost:
○ Increasing the number of turbines may ensure higher reliability but will
involve increased initial installation costs, ongoing maintenance, and
operational complexity. The trade-off between higher reliability and the
financial feasibility of adding more turbines must be carefully assessed.

3. Installation, Operational, and Maintenance Cost Constraints

● Installation Costs:
○ The initial costs for installing turbines vary based on their capacity, ranging
from $50,000 for small turbines to over $2.2 million for large-scale utility
turbines. This creates a budget limitation when choosing the number and
type of turbines.
● Operational and Maintenance Costs:
 ○ Each turbine requires ongoing maintenance, averaging between $42,000 to
$48,000 annually. Over a 20-year lifespan, this can accumulate to
substantial amounts, impacting the overall cost-effectiveness of the wind
farm.
● Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE):
○ The LCOE, a key economic indicator, needs to be minimized while
maintaining power reliability. It includes all costs over a turbine's lifespan,
highlighting the importance of cost-efficient installation and maintenance
strategies.

4. Risk of Power Insufficiency and System Overloading

● Power Insufficiency:
○ There is a risk that the wind farm may not generate enough power to meet
demand during low-wind periods, leading to potential power shortages.
This requires a contingency plan, such as energy storage or hybrid systems.
● System Overloading:
○ High wind speeds or an increase in turbine count without proper
management can lead to overloading of the power system. This could strain
the grid infrastructure and cause stability issues, necessitating robust
control mechanisms to handle excess power generation.

Assumptions
1. Consistent Output Characteristics of Turbines

● Standardized Performance:
○ All turbines are assumed to operate with consistent output characteristics,
meaning each turbine delivers a predictable power output under given wind
conditions. This assumption simplifies the analysis by treating all turbines
of the same type as having uniform efficiency and reliability.
● Fixed Operational Range:
○ Turbines are optimized to perform within a set wind speed range of 3 m/s to
14 m/s. Output outside this range is considered negligible or unsafe for
sustained operation. This ensures that turbines will consistently produce
power when within the optimal wind conditions.

2. Costs are Representative of Real-World Scenarios

 ● Installation Costs:
○ The costs for installing wind turbines are assumed to align with current
market prices, based on real-world scenarios. This includes a price range
from $50,000 for small-scale turbines to $2.2 million per megawatt for
larger utility-scale turbines.
● Maintenance Costs:
○ Annual maintenance and operational costs per turbine are estimated based
on industry averages, ranging from $42,000 to $48,000, with expectations
that these costs remain consistent over a turbine’s typical 20-year lifespan.
● Economic Viability:
○ The economic analysis incorporates the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE),
assuming the costs accurately reflect current trends in wind energy markets,
including expected inflation and technological advancements.

3. Reasonable Modeling of Wind and Demand Patterns

● Seasonal and Daily Variability:

○ Wind speeds are modeled to fluctuate seasonally and daily, representing
realistic wind patterns based on historical data. This includes high wind
speeds during winter and summer, and lower speeds in autumn and spring,
affecting the output of the wind farm accordingly.
● Normal and Weibull Distributions:
○ Wind speeds are assumed to follow statistical distributions (Normal and
Weibull), providing a reasonable approximation of natural wind behavior
over different periods. This helps predict the reliability and performance of
the wind farm under varying conditions.
● Electricity Demand:
○ Electricity demand is modeled with seasonal and daily variations, reflecting
typical consumption trends in a small town. Peak and off-peak demand
periods are reasonably estimated to assess how well the wind farm can
handle fluctuations in power needs.
Methodology

1. Seasonal Analysis: Electricity Demand vs. Hour

● Objective:
○ To understand how electricity demand varies over time, particularly on a
seasonal and hourly basis, providing insights into peak and off-peak
demand periods.
● Data Sources:
○ Historical electricity consumption data was analyzed to capture seasonal
trends. Demand data is segmented by hours to identify peak demand
periods during different seasons.
● Key Focus:
○ Identifying how daily and seasonal variations in electricity demand
correlate with wind speeds, ensuring that the wind farm can adequately
meet varying power requirements throughout the year.
● Insights:
○ This analysis highlights the need for increased capacity during
high-demand periods, particularly in winter evenings and summer
afternoons when consumption peaks.

2. Cost Analysis per Turbine

● Objective:
○ To evaluate the financial implications of installing and maintaining wind
turbines of different capacities, ensuring that the system is both reliable and
economically viable.
● Installation Costs:
○ Costs for various turbine sizes were gathered, with estimates ranging from
$50,000 to $80,000 for small-scale turbines (up to 100 kW), $300,000 to
$1.3 million for mid-sized turbines (100 kW to 1 MW), and $1.3 million to
$2.2 million per MW for large utility-scale turbines.
● Operational and Maintenance Costs:
○ Annual maintenance and operational expenses were considered, averaging
between $42,000 to $48,000 per turbine. This includes routine maintenance,
repairs, and operational monitoring over a 20-year turbine lifespan.
 ● Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE):
○ The LCOE calculation incorporates both installation and operational costs
over the turbine's lifespan to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of wind energy
compared to traditional power sources.

3. GoLab Wind Energy Simulation Results (Winter)

● Objective:
○ To simulate wind turbine performance in varying seasonal conditions,
focusing particularly on winter when wind speeds tend to be higher.
● Simulation Setup:
○ GoLab simulation was utilized to model the impact of wind speed on
turbine output during winter. Multiple scenarios were tested, varying the
number of turbines and wind speeds within the operational range (3 m/s to
14 m/s).
● Key Metrics:
○ Power output was analyzed for different turbine configurations to determine
the optimal setup for meeting winter demand. Simulations included
scenarios for under-performance during low wind conditions and
over-performance during periods of excess wind speed.
● Reliability Analysis:
○ Results provided estimates on how effectively the system meets energy
requirements, with a focus on identifying the number of turbines needed to
achieve 99% reliability during high-demand winter months.

4. Descriptive Statistics

● Objective:
○ To provide a statistical overview of the collected data, summarizing wind
speeds, power output, and electricity demand across seasons.
● Data Analysis:
○ Descriptive statistics, including mean, median, standard deviation, and
range, were used to understand the variability in wind speed and electricity
consumption. This provides a clear picture of the expected performance of
the wind farm under different seasonal conditions.
● Statistical Distributions:
○ Wind data was analyzed using both Normal and Weibull distributions to
model seasonal wind speed variations accurately. These models were
 essential for predicting power generation reliability and understanding the
probability of meeting energy demands.
● Visual Data Representation:
○ Graphs and charts were utilized to visualize the relationship between wind
speeds, turbine performance, and electricity demand, aiding in the
identification of patterns and anomalies across seasons.

Data Collection and Research : Seasonal Analysis

Winter Season :
Spring Season :

Autumn Season :
Summer Season :

Code for generating the Electricity Demand Data

Cost Analysis per turbine
1. Installation Costs per Turbine

● Small Turbines (Up to 100 kW):

○ The installation costs for small turbines, which have a capacity of up to 100
kW, are assumed to range from $50,000 to $80,000 per turbine. This range
includes the costs for equipment, installation, and basic infrastructure
necessary for smaller-scale wind energy projects.
● Mid-Size Turbines (100 kW to 1 MW):
○ For mid-sized turbines, which cover capacities between 100 kW to 1 MW,
installation costs are estimated between $300,000 to $1.3 million per
turbine. This assumes that mid-size turbines require more robust
infrastructure, such as enhanced foundations and advanced electrical
systems.
● Large Utility-Scale Turbines (1–3 MW):
○ Large turbines, typically used in utility-scale projects, have a significantly
higher installation cost due to their size and complexity. The assumption is
that installation costs will range from $1.3 million to $2.2 million per
megawatt (MW) of capacity. For example, a 2 MW turbine might cost
between $2.6 million and $4.4 million for installation.

2. Operations and Maintenance Costs

● Annual Maintenance Costs:

○ The annual maintenance and operational costs for large turbines (1–3 MW)
are assumed to average between $42,000 to $48,000 per turbine. This
estimate covers routine inspections, parts replacement, repairs, and the
costs of maintaining infrastructure like electrical connections and control
systems.
● 20-Year Lifespan Cost Projections:
○ Over the expected 20-year lifespan of a typical utility-scale turbine, the
operational and maintenance costs are assumed to accumulate to a total of
$800,000 to $1 million per turbine. This long-term view is essential for
understanding the total cost of ownership and the financial viability of wind
energy investments.

3. Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)

 ● Utility-Scale Wind Turbines:
○ The LCOE for utility-scale turbines, which considers all costs over the
turbine's life (including installation, maintenance, and operational
expenses), is assumed to be between $26 to $50 per MWh in regions with
high wind potential. This range indicates that wind energy is
cost-competitive compared to conventional power sources in suitable
locations.
● LCOE Calculation Assumptions:
○ The LCOE calculations are based on an assumption that wind patterns,
installation costs, and maintenance expenses remain relatively stable over
the lifespan of the turbines. Inflation and technological advancements that
could influence costs are factored conservatively to provide a realistic
estimation.
● Impact of High Wind Potential:
○ Assumptions are made that regions with high wind potential (sustained
wind speeds within the optimal range) will yield a lower LCOE due to the
higher efficiency and output of turbines. This makes wind energy
particularly attractive in locations where average wind speeds are
consistently high.

4. Economic Assumptions for Cost Viability

● Installation Costs Reflect Current Market Trends:

○ The installation costs provided are assumed to reflect current market trends
and standard practices for the wind energy industry. These estimates are
based on historical data and industry benchmarks for wind farm projects of
similar scale.
● Maintenance Costs Remain Consistent:
○ It is assumed that maintenance costs will remain relatively stable over time,
with only minor variations due to inflation or advancements in technology
that might reduce maintenance requirements.
● Energy Market Stability:
○ The LCOE estimates assume that the energy market remains stable over the
lifespan of the turbines, with no drastic fluctuations in energy prices that
would significantly impact the financial outlook of wind projects.
GoLab Wind Energy Simulation Results
Reliability of Wind Farm
The reliability factor represents the percentage of the total required power that was either
met or exceeded by the wind farm’s output. The range of reliability factors depends on
how well the wind farm is able to meet the demand.

Normal Distribution :
The Normal (Gaussian) distribution is used to model random variables with a
symmetrical distribution around the mean. Its probability density function (PDF) is given
below

where x represents wind speed, μ is the mean wind speed, and σ is the standard deviation
of wind speed for each season.
Weibull Distribution :

x is the wind speed, k is the shape parameter, which determines the spread and tail of the
distribution, λ is the scale parameter, which adjusts the distribution’s spread along the
x-axis. Where
σ is the standard deviation and μ is the mean wind speed for each season and
Descriptive Statistics

Conclusion

Seasonal and Daily Variability Assumptions

1. Wind Speed Variations by Season

● Seasonal Wind Patterns:

○ It is assumed that seasonal wind patterns are consistent, with winter and
summer experiencing higher average wind speeds (10.04 m/s in winter and
8.05 m/s in summer) compared to autumn and spring. These patterns are
based on historical data, and it’s assumed that future seasonal trends will
mirror these observations.
● Daily Wind Speed Fluctuations:
○ Within each season, daily fluctuations in wind speed are expected. It’s
assumed that wind speeds will vary throughout the day, typically peaking in
the early afternoon or late evening. These daily variations are critical for
assessing the ability of the wind farm to meet hourly demand changes.

2. Electricity Demand Variability

● Demand Trends by Season:

 ○ Electricity demand is assumed to follow predictable seasonal trends, with
higher consumption during cold winter months and hot summer periods due
to increased heating and cooling needs. Conversely, lower demand is
expected in milder seasons like autumn.
● Peak and Off-Peak Demand:
○ The model assumes a clear distinction between peak demand (higher usage
during mornings and evenings) and off-peak demand (lower usage at night
and midday), allowing for better scheduling of wind energy production.

Wind Farm Reliability and Capacity Assumptions

3. Wind Farm Output Reliability

● Performance Consistency:
○ It is assumed that the wind farm’s performance is consistent across turbines
of similar specifications, with output primarily influenced by seasonal and
daily wind variations. This consistency simplifies reliability calculations
and allows the study to focus on seasonal impacts rather than
turbine-specific anomalies.
● Diminishing Returns During Low-Wind Seasons:
○ The study assumes that increasing the number of turbines results in
diminishing returns, particularly during low-wind seasons (like autumn).
This suggests that simply adding more turbines is not the most effective
solution for improving reliability during these periods.

4. Hybrid and Energy Storage Systems

● Supplementary Power Sources:

○ It is assumed that integrating hybrid systems (such as solar or biomass) or
energy storage solutions (like batteries) could compensate for the reduced
reliability of wind energy during low-wind periods. This is based on the
assumption that storage and hybrid systems can be effectively coupled with
the existing wind infrastructure.
● Energy Storage Efficiency:
○ The efficiency of energy storage systems is assumed to be high enough to
justify their inclusion during low-wind seasons, ensuring that surplus power
generated during high-wind periods (winter and summer) can be stored and
utilized when needed.
Economic Feasibility Assumptions

5. Cost of Turbine Installation and Maintenance

● High Initial Installation Costs:

○ It is assumed that the upfront costs for turbine installation are high,
reflecting real-world scenarios of infrastructure development. These costs
are assumed to be mitigated over the turbine’s lifespan due to relatively low
maintenance expenses.
● Stable Maintenance Costs:
○ Maintenance costs are assumed to remain stable over the turbine’s expected
20-year lifespan, with minimal increases due to inflation or unforeseen
repairs. This assumption allows for a clear calculation of long-term
economic feasibility.

6. Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)

● Impact of Wind Speed on LCOE:

○ It is assumed that the LCOE will decrease during high-wind seasons (winter
and summer) due to increased energy output and better efficiency. This
makes wind energy more competitive with traditional power sources during
these periods.
● Economic Competitiveness:
○ The assumption is that wind energy remains economically viable even with
initial high costs, particularly in regions with strong wind potential. The
study assumes that improvements in technology and economies of scale
will continue to lower the LCOE over time, making wind power a more
attractive option.
● Minimal Influence of External Economic Factors:
○ External factors, such as changes in global energy prices or economic
instability, are assumed to have a minimal impact on the financial viability
of wind projects. The focus is on regional wind potential and local
economic conditions for assessing cost-effectiveness.