Scribd
Upload
155 views

Geometric Increase Method

Uploaded by

Eyosias Birhanu
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
155 views

Geometric Increase Method

Uploaded by

Eyosias Birhanu
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 11

Methods Of Forecasting Population

geometric increase method.


Examples

2024/25
By: Eyosias B. ( PhD candidate)
1# The census figure of a city shows population as follows

Work out the probable population after one, two and three
decades using geometric increase method.

geometric increase method


n
 AGR 
Pn = Po 1 + 
 100 

Solution
𝐴𝑉𝐺
where =K= percentage (geometric) increase 2
100
Example 1.1

Decades Population Increase Rate of Growth [k]

0 41000 ---
1 43500 43500 – 41000 = 2500 2500/41000 = 0.061

2 47100 47100 - 43500= 3600 3600/43500 = 0.0826

3 50000 50000 – 47100 = 2900 2900/47100 = 0.0616

K - Could be found as arithmetic mean (i.e., (k1 + k2 + k3 ... kn)/n)


or as a geometric mean (i.e., nth root of (k1 * k2 * k3 ... kn))
𝒏
K= 𝒌𝟏 ∗ 𝒌𝟐 ∗ 𝒌𝟑 … 𝒌𝒏 =
𝟑
𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟏 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟐𝟔 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟏𝟔 =0.068
3
Example 1.1

P after 1st decade


= 50,000 (1 + 0.068)1 = 53,400
P after 2nd decade
= 50,000 (1 + 0.068)2 = 57,031
P after 3rd decade
= 50,000 (1 + 0.068)3 = 60,909

Eyosias B. 4
Example 1.2

2# A rapidly growing city has 420,000 present population and the following
recorded annual growth rate data for the past four years calculate the
population of the city after 10 years using geometric increase methods.

Eyosias B. 5
Example 1.2

Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4


Population 40% 35.7% 31.6% 28%

Solution:
Geometric Increase Method:
For the geometric increase method, Calculate the annual growth rate (k) mean
using the formula
𝑛 4
K= 𝑘1 ∗ 𝑘2 ∗ 𝑘3 … 𝑘𝑛 = 0.4 ∗ 0.357 ∗ 0.316 ∗ 0.28 = 0.335
Now we have the annual growth rate, we can use the geometric increase formula to
forecast the population after 10 years

Pn = Po (1 + K )
n

Eyosias B. 6
Example 1.3

Example 1.3
2# The Annual Growth Rate of a town in Ethiopia is 3.5%. Assuming
the present population of the town (in 2010) is 4500, what would be the
population in 2025?

Solution
Annual Growth Rate of a town = K = 3.5% = 0.035; Po = 4500
n = 2025-2010 = 15
Pn = Po (1+k) n
P15 = 4500(1+0.035)15 = 7540

Eyosias B. 7
Example 1.4

4# The following data shows the variation in population of a


town from 1944 to 2004.
Estimate the population of the city in the year 2014 and 2019 by
arithmetic and geometric increase methods.

Solution

Eyosias B. 8
Example 1.4

Years Population Increase Rate of growth

1944 40185 ---

1954 44522 44522-40185=4337 4337/40185= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟎𝟖

1964 60395 60395-44522=15873 15873/44522 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟓𝟔

1974 75614 75614-60395=15219 15219/60395= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟐

1984 98886 98886-75614=23272 23272/75614= 𝟎. 𝟑𝟎𝟖

1994 124230 124230-98886=25344 25344/98886= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟔

2004 158800 158800-124230=34570 34570/124230= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟖

Total 118615

Average 118615/6=19769

Eyosias B. 9
Example 1.4

K - Could be found as arithmetic mean


(k1 + k2 + k3 ...kn) 118615
(i.e., 𝑛
= 6
=19769
or as a geometric mean (i.e., nth root of (k1 * k2 * k3 ... kn))
𝑛
K= 𝑘1 ∗ 𝑘2 ∗ 𝑘3 … 𝑘𝑛
6
= 0.108 ∗ 0.356 ∗ 0.252 ∗ 0.308 ∗ 0.256 ∗ 0.278 = 0.2442

i. Using Arithmetic Method


Pt = Po + k ∆t ∆t= 1 Decade (2014-2004)
∆t = 1.5 Decade (2019-2004)
P2014 = 158800+ 19769*1 =178569

P2019 = 158800+ 19769*1.5 =188453

Eyosias B. 10
Example 1.4

ii. Using Geometric Method

Pn = Po (1 + K )
n

P2014 = 158800(1 + 0.2442 )


1
= 197,579

P2019 = 158800(1 + 0.2442 )


1.5
= 220,387

Eyosias B. 11

You might also like