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M O D E L I N G CROP PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Principles a n d A p p l i c a t i o n
 Modeling Crop
Production Systems
Principles and Application

PHOOL SINGH
E m e r i t u s Professor o f P l a n t P h y s i o l o g y
C o l l e g e o f Basic Sciences a n d H u m a n i t i e s
CCS H a r y a n a A g r i c u l t u r a l U n i v e r s i t y , H i s a r
India

CRC Press
Taylor &. Francis Group
Boca Raton London New York

CRC Press is an imprint of the

Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

A SCIENCE PUBLISHERS BOOK

CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742

First issued in hardback 2017

© 2008, Copyright reserved
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

No claim to original U.S. Government works

ISBN 13: 978-1-138-40153-2 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-1-57808-418-0 (pbk)
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. While all reasonable efforts have
been made to publish reliable data and information, neither the author[s] nor the publisher can accept any legal respon¬
sibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publishers wish to make clear that any views or
opinions expressed i n this book by individual editors, authors or contributors are personal to them and do not neces¬
sarily reflect the views/opinions of the publishers. The information or guidance contained i n this book is intended for
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Singh, Phool.
M o d e l i n g c r o p p r o d u c t i o n s y s t e m s : p r i n c i p l e s and a p p l i c a t i o n / Phool Singh,
p . cm.
Includes bibliographical r e f e r e n c e s and i n d e x .
ISBN 1-57808-418-0
1. Food crops^Mat-hematical models. 2 . A g r i c u l t u r a l systemsHMathematical models. I . T i t l e .

SB175.S56 2006
631.501'5118-dc22
2006050610
Dedicated to m y professor

Dr. S.M. Welch

 Preface

Lord Kelvin had once stated, "When you cannot express it in numbers, your
knowledge is a meagre and unsatisfactory k i n d in this new era of
agricultural research and development, simulation partially substitutes for
experiments. Simulation can be instrumental in determining recommendations
for various agro-technology packages. Researchers and technologists are
convinced with the degree of accuracy achieved in simulating crop and soil
systems, thus enabling accurate prediction of the outcomes needed in
agricultural decision making.
Until recently, emphasis was more on food and feed production by way of
agronomic research and development. Now environmental concerns have
added another dimension. Our aim must be to maintain adequate food
production and minimize the level of environmental degradation. To achieve
this objective, we need to include simulation of all or part of the soil-plan t-
atmosphere systems. Arriving at these goals through experimental research only
will require huge resources. The use of simulation models is a necessity as also
an aide to help with the decision making progress in sustainable agricultural
systems. During these times of low funding for agricultural research and
extension, experimental research is both time consuming and expensive. For
the present, however, the evaluation of key simulated research must continue
along with field experimentation.
This book is directed at undergraduate and post-graduate students in the
disciplines of agronomy, plant breeding, agricultural meteorology, crop
physiology, agriculture economics, entomology, plant pathology, soil science
and ecology (environmental science). This book may also be useful for
administrators in various agricultural universities in order to direct research,
extension and teaching activities. Planners at national and state levels may also
benefit from this book.
A number of texts exist that deal with the application of mathematics in
the field of biology. A good book on modeling agricultural system should
examine the issue in sufficient depth to enable the reader to understand the
relation between an individual mathematical expression and its biological
intuition. Readers are advised that the relation between a certain pair of variables
viii Modeling Crop Production Systems

obeys a particular equation. The reader has to decide why such an equation
should be used, what physical and biological assumptions are implied by the
use of the equation, and when the equation should not be used.
The reader should also try to answer the query that why do certain physical
characteristics of a system lead to particular types of mathematical descriptions?
For example, the exponential growth of an organism is because of the fact that
the organism does not face any environmental resistance.
Crop production systems are among the most complex ones studied by
modern agricultural science. Organizing the experimental knowledge of crop
production system w i t h o u t the bookkeeping and deductive methods of
mathematics is very difficult. Research literature of experimental agriculture is
witness to the increasing use of mathematical methods. However, agricultural
scientists and students often lack the training to make proper use of these
methods, and agricultural scientists/students are often unable to grasp the
biological relevance of mathematical models encountered in literature.
This present book does possess the minimal mathematical prerequisites
necessary to familiarize oneself with the concepts of calculus, matrix algebra
and statistics. Here, the intention is to teach the students the process by which
the properties of the systems can be grasped in the framework of mathematical
structure. The primary concern is not with the manipulation of equations, but
the conceptual content of the relevant mathematical structure, A student whose
forma] mathematical background includes an elementary introduction to
calculus, matrix algebra and statistics, w i l l be able to comprehend the
conceptual content. It is essential for the student/reader to have a sufficient
grounding in those specific areas of crop production system to which the
concepts are applied.
In this book, two type of examples have been given: (1) those which are not
related to the agriculture; and (2) those which are related to the crop production
system. The former relates to prototypes and the latter deals w i t h the
complexities.
It is advisable to the students/readers to select the exercises which are
related to their field of specialization and apply the principles from their own
field of biology.
Modeling facility can be taken care of the experience of developing one's
own models and the critical study of models developed by others. If the reader
or student takes the first step in modeling, i.e he or she defines the problem or
system of his own interest, my objective is fulfilled. The first step will lead to
his or her destination if he continues the efforts till the problem is solved.
The book is based on course 'Entom 891, Sys. Modi. Biol' (Modeling of
Biological Systems, 3+1), taught to me by Professor S.M. Welch in 1980 at Kansas
State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA.
 Preface ix

This book consists of six chapters, namely:

1. Philosophy, role and terminology of system science;
2. Development of model structure;
3. Specification of component behavior;
4. Compu ter imp Lementa tion;
5. Model testing and validation; and
6. Biological application of models.
The author acknowledges the support of DST and USER Scheme, catalyzed
and supported by the Department of Science and Technology under the
utilization of scientific expertise of superannuated scientists scheme to
7

accomplishment of this project.

No man is an island into himself. This is particularly true in the field in
crop modeling which weaves together skeins from many sources; each worker
owes part of his intellectual development to many other peoples. I express my
gratitude to E.S. Pine and Steinlitz-Hammacher Co. New Jersy; B.F.J. Manly and
Chapman & Hall; PC. Muchow & J.A. Bellamy and CAB International; J. Sack
& J. Meadows and Science Research Associates, Inc.; R. Elmasri & S.B. Navathe
and Addison Wesley; K.R. Baker, C.C. Carter & J.N. Sasser, and North Carolina
State University Graphics; S.E. Jorgensen and Elsevier; C.H. Goulden and Asia
Publishing House; A.E. Lewis and East West Press Pvt. Ltd; W.J. Conover and
John Wiley & Sons; M.J. Kropff & H.H.V. Laar and CAB International; J. Hanks
and J.T. Ritchie and ASA, Inc., CSSA, Inc., SSSA Inc; K.F.E. Watt and McGraw-
Hill Book Co.; J.B. Dent and Blackie and Applied Science Publishers Ltd; R.W.
Poole and Mc Graw-Hill Book Co.; W.L. Quirin and Harper & Row publishers;
R.R. Sokal & F.J. Rohlf and W.H. Freeman & Co.; H.V. Keulen & J. Wolf and
PUDOC; R.M. Peart & R.B. Curry and Marcel Dekker, Inc.; J. France & J.H.M.
Thornley and Butterworths; C.R. Searle and John Wiley & Sons; J.D. Spain and
Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.; and L.J. Fritschen & L.W. Gay and Springer-
Verlag.
1 am deeply thankful to Regent Professor E.T. Kanemasu, Professor, G.M.
Paulsen and Professor S.M. Welch, who catalyzed and supported this project. I
also express my gratitude to UNESCO for the Fellowship at K.S.U. Manhattan,
without whose help, I could not write this book on modeling. I owe a great deal
to Prof. Maharaj Singh, the then Director of Research, CCS H A U , Hissar. I
express my gratitude to Dr D.P. Singh, the then Vice-ChancelJor, J1NKW Jabalpur
for the inspiration to complete this work.
I sincerely thank the distinguished Prof. J.W. Jones, Department of
Agricultural and Bio-Engineering, University of Florida, USA, for his valuable
comments to include the well thought out exercises and their solutions in this
text.
I shall always be in debt to CCS H A U , Hisar, the Departments of Botany,
Entomology, Plant Pathology, Soil Science, Agronomy Agril. Meteorology, Agril.
x Modeling Crop Production Systems

Economics and Directorate of Research. I also express my sincere thanks to

ISRO, Bangalore; Centre for Advanced Studies in Botany, Madras University;
NRSA, Hyderabad; IARI, New Delhi, SAC, Ahmedabad; CRR1, Cuttack for being
instrumental for improving the quality of the book.
I am extremely thankful to Dharmesh for formating of the manuscript and
Abhishek Saini for helping to review the literature.
I owe a continuing debt of gratitude to my family, particularly my wife, Uma,
for her forebearance during the long gestation of this book.
In the last but not the least, I express my gratitude greater than ever to
Valentina Chauhan, my daughter, for helping in correcting the proofs.

P H O O L SDMGH, Ph.D.
 Contents

Preface vii
1. PHILOSOPHY, R O L E A N D T E R M I N O L O G Y O F
SYSTEM SCIENCE 1
1.1 History of system science 1
1.1.1 Infancy 7
1.1.2 Juvenile phase 7
1.1.3 Adolescence 8
1.1.4 Maturity 9
1.2 General topology and terminology of systems 11
1.2.1 Variable 11
1.2.2 Parameter 12
1.2.3 System 13
1.2.4 Dynamic process/ model /system 14
1.2.5 Continuous versus discrete state spaces 15
1.2.6 Stochastic versus deterministic descriptions 16
1.2.6.1 Stochastic models of exponential growth 16
1.2.7 Modeling 19
1.2.8 Model 19
1.2.9 Steps in modeling 21
1.2.9.1 First Step: Define the problem 21
1.2.9.2 Second Step: Component identification 21
1.2.9.3 Third Step: Specify component behavior 22
1.2.9.4 Fourth Step: Computer implementation 22
1.2.9.5 Fifth Step: Validation 22
1.2.9.6 Sixth Step: Analysis 22
1.2.9.6.1 Sensitivity analyses 22
1.2.9.6.2 Stability analyses 22
1.3 Three problems 23
1.3.1 System management problem 23
1.3.2 Pure research problem 23
1.3.3 System design problem 24
References 24-26
xii Modeling Crop Production Systems

2. D E V E L O P M E N T OF M O D E L S T R U C T U R E 27
2.1 Variables and their classification 27
2.1.1 Individual observations 27
2.1.2 Sample of observations 27
2.1.3 Variables 27
2.1.4 Population 28
2.1.5 Variables and their classification 28
2.1.5.1 Measurement variables 28
2.1.5.2 Discontinuous variables 29
2.1.6 Ranked variables 29
2.1.7 Nomina] variables or attributes 30
2.1.8 Variate 30
2.1.9 Derived variable 30
2.1.10 Interval variable 33
2.1.11 Ratio variable 33
2.1.12 Rate-quantity variable 33
2.1.13 Example 34
2.1.13.1 Components 34
2.1.13.1.1 Person 34
2.1.13.1.2 Car 34
2.1.13.1.3 Highway 34
2.1.13.1.4 Environment 34
2.1.14 Exercise 36
2.2 Relationship between variables 37
2.2.1 Causal loop diagrams 38
2.2.1.1 Direct relations 38
2.2.1.2 Indirect relations 38
2.2.1.3 Relationship between rate and quantity variable 38
2.2.2 Types of relationship between variables 39
2.2.2.1 Direct (together) relations 39
2.2.2.2 Inverse relations 39
2.2.2.3 Indeterminate relations 39
2.2.2.4 Feedback relationship 39
2.2.3 Example of public address system 40
2.2.3.1 Step 1 40
2.2.3.2 Step 2. Qualitative description of the system 40
2.2.3.3 Step 3. Definition of relevant components, subsystems,
and interactions 40
2.2.3.4 Step 4. Definition of relevant variables 41
2.2.3.5 Step 5. Representation of the relations between the variables 42
2.2.3.6 Step 6. Description of the subsystems 43
2.2.3.7 Step 7. The model equations 44
2.2.3.8 Step 8. Studying the behaviour of the mode] 45
 Contents xiii

2.2.3.9 Example of feedback relationship: Simple public

address system 46
2.2.3.10 Example: Amplifier circuit with negative feedback 46
2.2.3.11 Effect of feedback on response to change in input 48
2.3 Structural (black box) model 51
2.4 Refinement in structural models 52
2.4.1 The structure of crop simulation models 52
References 56

3. SPECIFICATION O F C O M P O N E N T BEHAVIOR 57
3.1 Algebraic form 57
3.1.1 Matrix algebraic form for studying a specific behavior
of components 61
3.1.1.1 Use of matrix algebra in principal component analysis 73
3.1.1.2 Use of matrix algebra in linear programming
for optimization of the system 80
3.1.1.2.1 Remark 90
3.1.1.3 Use of matrix algebra for distance measurements 91
3.1.1.3.1 Calculation of group distances to make a dendogram 92
3.2 Integral-differential form 93
3.2.1 Example for formulating a differential equations 93
3.2.2 The absorption law of Lambert 95
3.3 Parameter estimation 96
3.3.1 Statistical procedure 96
3.3.1.1 Finding the best parameter values for linear equations 96
3.3.1.1.1 Useful characteristic of extrema 96
3.3.1.1.2 Expressions for parameters a and b 98
3.3.1.1.2.1 Derivative of a function of a funcrtion: The chain rule 98
3.3.1.1.2.2 Graphical representation 103
3.3.1.2 How good is the best fitting curve 103
3.3.1.3 Random versus systematic deviations 105
3.3.1.4 Linear approximations for quick estimating a
good fitting curve 105
3.3.1.5 Weighing of data 107
3.3.1.5.1 Example 108
3.3.1.6 Error due to data transformation 110
3.3.1.6.1 Example: Error due to data transformation 111
3.3.1.6.1.1 Graphical representation 117
3.3.1.7 Correlation between variables 117
3.3.1.7.1 Example 123
3.3.1.8 Forced correlation 124
3.3.1.8.1 Example 124
3.3.1.9 Statistical procedure for parameters estimation
of normal distribution curve 125
xiv Modeling Crop Production Systems

3.3.1.9.1 Practical uses of normal distribution curve and

table of normal distribution (double tail) 129
3.3.1.9.1.1 Example (Quirin 1978) 131
3.3.1.9.1.2 Example (Quirin 1978) 131
3.3.1.9.1.3 Differences between two population mean or proportions 131
3.3.1.9.1.4 Interval estimation 137
3.3.1.10 Parameter estimation of samples and the universe of discourse 145
3.3.1.11 Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing 147
3.3.1.11.1 Example (1) 150
3.3.1.11.2 Example (2) 155
3.3.1.11.3 Example (3) 156
3.3.1.11.4 Example (4) 157
3.3.1.11.5 Example (5) 160
3.3.1.11.6 Example (6) 160
3.3.1.11.7 Example (7) 161
3.3.1.12 Crop performance indices 165
3.4 Non-statistical procedure for estimating the parameters
(physical approach) 165
3.4.1 Non-statistical procedure of parameter estimation 165
3.4.1.1 Cuestimate of the intrinsic rate of increase 171
3.4.1.2 Computer language programming and simulation
studies on large computer as a non-statistical approach
for estimating parameters and for sensitivity analysis 175
3.4.1.3 Non-statistical approach for parameter estimate
in stochastic models 177
3.4.1.4 Estimation of binomial coefficient with non-statistical method 177
3.4.1.4.1 Example from Lewis (1971) 178
3.4.1.4.2 Binomial distribution (theorem) 179
3.4.1.5 Multinomial distribution 180
3.4.1.5.1 Example 180
3.4.1.6 Poisson distribution 181
3.4.1.7 O p t i m u m seeking designs as a non-statistical approach
in design of simulation experiments 181
3.4.1.8 Fitting model equations to experimental data 183
3.4.1.8.1 Selecting equations for fitting 185
3.4.1.8.2 Standard equation types 185
3.4.1.9 Mathematical formulation for solving the differentia]
equation (analytical solution) 194
3.4.1.10 Mathematical formulation for solving the difference
equation (numerical solution) 198
3.4.1.10.1 The finite difference approach 199
3.4.1.10.2 The Euler technique 200
3.4.1.10.3 An iterated second order Runge-Kutta method 202
References 203-204
 Contents xv

4. C O M P U T E R I M P L E M E N T A T I O N 205
4.1 Model software requirement 205
4.1.1 General purpose languages 207
4.1.2 Special-purpose simulation languages 207
4.1.3 Requirement of general-purpose or special purpose language 207
4.1.4 Requirement of special-purpose language 208
4.1.5 Recent softwares d eveloped 215
4.2 Generalized model 215
4.2.1 Specialization and generalization 219
4.2.2 Constraints and characteristics of specialization and
generaliza tion 225
4.3 Software specification 236
4.3.1 Command language 236
4.3.1.1 Data manipulating language for the hierarchial model 236
4.3.1.1.1 The GET command 237
4.3.1.1.2 THE GET PATH and GET NEXT W I T H I N PARENT
retrieval commands 238
4.3.1.1.3 H D M L commands for update 240
4.3.1.1.4 IMS: A hierarchial DBMS 241
4.3.2 Program 241
4.3.2.1 Flowcharting 243
4.3.2.1.1 General flowcharting rules 243
4.3.2.1.2 Flowchart symbols and their use 244
4.3.2.1.3 Examples of simple flowcharts 244
4.3.2.2 Introduction of basic programming 249
4.3.2.2.1 BASIC program 249
4.3.2.2.2 Line number 249
4.3.2.2.3 REM 249
4.3.2.2.4 READ and DATA 250
4.3.2.2.5 PRINT 250
4.3.2.2.6 LET 251
4.3.2.2.7 Variables 252
4.3.2.2.8 Constants 252
4.3.2.2.9 GOTO 253
4.3.2.2.10 STOP 253
4.3.2.2.11 IF. THEN 254
4.3.2.2.12 FOR and NEXT 254
4.3.2.2.13 Numeric functions 255
4.3.2.2.14 PRINT TAB 256
4.3.2.2.15 PRINT USING (TRS-80 only) 256
4.3.2.2.16 GOSUB and RETURN 257
4.3.2.2.17 GRAPH SUBROUTINE 261
4.3.2.2.18 Arrays and subscripted variables 265
xvi Modeling Crop Production Systems

4.3.22.19 Matrix subroutine 266

4.3.2.2.19.1 Inputting data to a matrix 266
4.3.2.2.19.2 Printing a matrix 267
4.3.2.2.19.3 Scalar multiplication by a constant, K 267
4.3.2.2.19.4 Post-multiplication of a matrix by a vector, X (C) 267
4.3.2.2.20 Important command mode instructions for apple 11
and TRS-80 267
4.3.2.2.20.1 Apple 0 plus 267
4.3.3 Data structure 269
4.3.3.1 Object data structure 269
4.3.3.2 The relational data structure 272
4.3.3.2.1 Relational model concepts 273
4.3.3.2.1.1 Domains, attributes, tupels, and relations 275
4.3.3.3 Network data structure 277
4.3.3.3.1 Network data modeling concepts 278
4.3.3.3.1.1 Records, record types, and data items 278
4.3.3.3.1.2 Set types and their basic properties 278
4.3.3.3.2 Special type of sets 282
4.3.3.3.3 Stored representations of set instances 282
4.3.3.3.4 Using sets to represent M : N relationships 285
4.3.3.4 Hierarchial data structure 288
4.3.3.4.1 Hierarchial database structures 288
4.3.3.4.1.1 Parent-child relationships and hierarchial schemas 288
4.3.3.4.1.2 Properties of a hierarchial schema 290
4.3.3.4.1.3 Hierarchial occurrence trees 291
4.3.3.4.1.4 Linearized form of a hierarchial occurrence tree 292
4.3.3.4.1.5 Virtual parent-child relationships 294
4.4 Data systems 297
4.4.1 Centralized data system 297
4.4.1.1 Centralized DBMS (Database Management System)
Architect 297
4.4.1.2 Client-server architecture 297
4.4.1.3 Client-server architectures for DBMSs 299
4.4.2 Hierarchial data system 301
4.4.2.1 Integrity constraints in the hierarchial model 301
4.4.2.2 Data definition in the hierarchial model 301
4.4.2.3 Data manipulation language for the hierarchial model 304
4.4.2.3.1 The get command 304
4.4.2.3.2 THE GET PATH and GET NEXT W I T H I N PARENT 306
4.4.2.3.3 H D M L commands for update 307
4.4.2.3.4 IMS: A hierarchial DBMS 308
References 309
 Contents xvii

5. M O D E L T E S T I N G A N D V A L I D A T I O N 310
5.1 Sensitivity analysis 310
5.2 Stability analysis 313
5.3 Validation 313
5.3.1 Types of goals of validation 313
5.3.2 Validation test based on confidence limits 314
5.3.2.1 Test for linearity of regression 320
5.3.3 Test based on least square procedure 322
5.3.3.1 Comparison between test based on confidence limit
and least square procedure 326
5.3.4 Tests based on probability distribution 327
5.3.4.1 The Smirnov test 328
5.3.4.1.1 Data 328
5.3.4.1.2 Assumption 328
5.3.4.1.3 Hypotheses 328
5.3.4.1.4 Test statisics 328
5.3.4.1.5 Decisonrule 329
5.3.4.2 Spearman's rho test (as quoted in Conover, 1980) 330
5.3.4.2.1 Data 330
5.3.4.2.2 Measure of correlation 331
5.3.4.3 Kendall's tau test (as quoted in Conover, 1980) 333
5.3.4.3.1 Data 333
5.3.4.3.2 Measure of correlation 334
5.3.5 Risk-to-user criteria 335
References 338-339

6. B I O L O G I C A L A P P L I C A T I O N O F M O D E L S 340
6.1 Ecological applications 341
6.1.1 Prey-predator system 341
6.1.1.1 Lotka-Voltara model for two-species prey-predator system 343
6.1.1.2 Prey-predator ecosystem 344
6.1.1.2.1 Representation of a simple prey-predator system 345
6.1.1.2.2 Component diagram for simple prey-predator system 345
6.1.1.2.3 Symbol arrow graph for simple prey-predator system 345
6.1.1.2.4 Variables for the prey-predator ecosystems 346
6.1.1.2.5 Parameters for the prey-predator ecosystem 346
6.1.1.2.6 The model equations of prey-predator ecosystem 346
6.1.1.2.7 Steady states of prey-predator ecosystem 347
6.1.1.2.8 Non-steady-state behavior 351
6.1.1.2.9 Simulation of prey-predator system 353
6.1.1.2.9.1 Exercise 354
6.1.1.2.10 Effects of time delay 355
6.1.1.2.11 Time required for developmental event 356
xviii Modeling Crop Production Systems

6.1.1.2.12 Delayed effects of environment 356

6.1.1.2.12.1 A n example of a system with delays 356
6.1.1.2.13 Models with age structure 358
6.1.1.2.14 A n example of a biological control model 360
6.1.1.2.15 Sensitivity analysis 362
6.1.2 Plant competition studies 362
6.1.2.1 Intraspecific competition in plants 362
6.1.2.1.1 Pielou's measures of intraspecific competition in plants 363
6.1.2.2 Competition among several plant species 365
6.1.3 Environmental management 368
6.1.3.1 Example: Energy flow and nutrient cycling in a grassland
ecosystem 369
6.1.3.1.1 Energy flow 370
6.1.3.1.2 Nutrient cycling 375
6.2 Agricultural application 378
6.2.1 Crop yield 378
6.2.1.1 Potential crop yield 378
6.2.1.2 Computer program for predicting water limited production 391
6.2.1.3 Sensitivity analysis of crop model as a help to crop
production research 397
6.2.1.4 Use of crop yield models for precision farming 398
6.2.1.5 Crop yield models using remote sensing DATA 400
6.2.1.6 Status of research and development on crop
simulation models 401
6.2.1.7 Models used for directing agricultural research 402
6.2.1.8 Models used in resource management 403
6.2.1.9 Models of crop growth (empirical and mechanistic models) 403
6.2.1.9.1 Empirical 403
6.2.1.9.2 Mechanistic models 403
6.2.1.9.2.1 Status of research and development on crop simulation
model in India 406
6.2.1.9.2.2 Status of research and development on crop simulation
model in India and abroad through remote sensing
technology 406
6.2.1.9.2.3 Models used as policy analysis tools 409
6.2.1.9.2.4 Advantages and limitations of crop models 410
6.2.2 Plant disease prediction 410
6.2.2.1 Event stepping module in the barley-leaf-rust model 412
6.2.2.1.1 The barley-leaf-rust-model construction 412
6.2.2.1.2 Validation of the barley-leaf-rust model 416
6.2.2.1.2.1 Statistical assessment 416
6.2.2.1.3 Computer-based experimentation of the
barley-leaf-rust model 420
6.2.2.1.4 Application of the barley-leaf-rust model 422
 Contents xix

6.2.2.1.4.1 Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the

barley-leaf-rust model 422
6.2.2.2 Other relevant literature on disease prediction 424
6.2.2.2.1 Estimation of crop losses 424
6.2.2.2.2 Disease prediction and control 425
6.2.2.2.3 Plant disease deductive model 426
6.2.3 Insect phenology 429
6.2.3.1 Development of an organism 430
6.2.3.1.1 Heat sums or the day-degree rule 431
6.2.3.1.2 Day length and other environmental factors 432
6.2.3.1.3 Calender days as a factor 433
6.2.3.1.4 Work done on insect phenology in India and aborad 433
6.2.4 Symbiosis between crop modeling and genomies 435
Appendix-A: Exercises on modeling crop production systems 438
Appendix-B: Discussion and solutions of exercises 459
References 490-506
Index 507-510
Epilog 513
 1
Philosophy, Role and Terminology of
System Science

1.1 H I S T O R Y O F S Y S T E M S C I E N C E

I n the post second w o r l d war scenario, system science remained

confined to the design of electrical circuits in laboratories under the aegis
of electrical engineering.
The concepts of p o t e n t i a l and transfer a p p l y d i r e c t l y to s i m p l e
electrical circuits. Ohm's law relates the applied voltage, £, in a circuit
to the product of the current, / and resistance R,

E = iR, (1.1)
where E is the potential difference or the w o r k done i n m o v i n g one charge
in the field of another charge. The unit of potential is volt, V, w i t h one
v o l t b e i n g e q u a l to 1 j o u l e per C o u l o m b . G e n e r a l l y the p o t e n t i a l
difference is expressed w i t h respect to some reference level. Often, the
level is called the g r o u n d , considered to be an infinite electrical sink.
The current represents the movement of electrons or charge. Since the
charge of an electron is 0.1603 x 10" Coulomb, A s , current is thought
18

of as the rate of movement of coulombs. Current is expressed in ampere,

A, where one ampere is equal to one coulomb per second.
The resistance of a circuit is the restriction to the flow of current
which is related to the electron field of the material used. Resistance here
is expressed in Ohms, Q. One O h m is equal to one volt per ampere.
Power, P, is used to express the dissipation of energy. It is the product
of volt and ampere, or joules per second. Other useful expressions are:

(1.2)

Resistors may be connected either in parallel or in series, g i v i n g rise

to parallel, series, and combination circuit. The series circuit is illustrated
in Figure 1.1.
2 Modeling Crop Production Systems

Fig. 1.1 The series circuit.

The same current flows through all of the resistors since they are
connected in the series. H o w e v e r , the total voltage d r o p across the
i n d i v i d u a l resistors is equal to the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l voltage drops.

£ = £, + £ + £ 2 3 (1.3)

By substitution, £ = z'R, + IR + /R 2 3 (1.4)

or y = R, + R + R = TR
2 3 (1.5)

Assuming R, = 20 Q, R = 50 Q, R
2 3 = 30 Q, and £ = 5 volts, we have

/=— = = 0.05 A (1.6)

(20+50+30)

£, - 0.05 x 20 = 1 V (1.7)

£ = 0.05 x 50 = 2.5 V
2 (1.8)

£ = 0.05 x 30 = 1.5 V
3 (1.9)
In contrast to a series circuit, the voltage across all the legs of a
parallel c i r c u i t is the same and the total c u r r e n t is the sum o f the
i n d i v i d u a l currents. Consider a parallel circuit in Figure 1.2.

Fig. 1.2 The parallel circuit.

(1.10)
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 3

(1.11)

(1.12)

where R is the parallel resistance of the n e t w o r k . The equation for

p

parallel resistance is

(1.13)

W h e n o n l y t w o resistances are in p a r a l l e l , the above e q u a t i o n

becomes

(1.14)

The parallel resistance in foregoing Figure 1.2 is

(1.15)

The current flow is

(1.16)

and

A combination series and parallel circuit, sometimes called a loaded

voltage divider, is used to illustrate one of the most common errors in
4 Modeling Crop Production Systems

environmentaJ measurements, 'the error of parallel resistors'. Consider

a combination circuit

Fig. 1.3 A c o m b i n a t i o n circuit.

If R, = 400 Q., R = 100 CL, and R is infinite, then unloaded o u t p u t

2 3

voltage £ is 1/5 of £ or 10 mv i f £ = 50 m v . As the resistance of R

Q 3

decreases, the parallel resistance of R and R decrease w i t h a resulting

2 3

decrease in the loaded output voltage £ . The difference between £ and L L

£ can be thought of as an output error and represented as 100 ( £ - £ ) / £

0 L 0 Q

for v a r i o u s values of R / R , w h i c h is s h o w n in the f o l l o w i n g table

3 2

indicating the error associated w i t h a loaded voltage:

T a b l e 1.1 T h e e r r o r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l o a d e d v o l t a g e d i v i d e r

R3 (F F \
-±- 100 L - L
0 L

ohms mv < £
o >
1 0.010 0.123 98.765
10 0.100 1.111 88.889
100 1.000 5.556 44.444
1000 10.000 9.259 7.407
10000 100.000 9.921 0.794
100000 1000.000 9.952 0.080
1000000 10000.000 9.999 0.008

Source: F r i t s c h e n , L.J. a n d L . W . G a y , S e p t e m b e r 1979, E n v i r o n m e n t a l I n s t r u m e n ­

tation. Springer-Verlag, New York, Heidelberg, Berlin, pp.216.

The error decreases w i t h a corresponding increase in the ratio R / R . 3 2

The error is approximately 0.1% when R / R is 1000 (Table 1.1). Either 3 2

the impedance of a measuring device, e.g. R , must be at least 1000 times 3

the resistance of the device being measured, or the resistance of a voltage

divider must be atleast 1000 times the resistance of the transducer.
A system ( c i r c u i t n e t w o r k ) m i g h t be h a v i n g many subsystems
(components, resistors). A component has its o w n i n p u t and output. The
o u t p u t of the system w i l l be decided by the i n p u t s and o u t p u t s of
i n d i v i d u a l components. The efficiency of the system w i l l be controlled
by (1) input, (2) output, and (3) component.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 5

Thus,
(1) represent the system as a network of components;
(2) describes the relationship between the input and o u t p u t of each
component;
(3) on this basis, it predicts the system behavior; and
(4) incorporates model results into a larger system.
The second discipline, aided by system science, is economical in cost
and reliability analyses.
Since the seventeenth century, biology has been using the principles
of systems science to study the p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h vis-a-vis b i r t h and
death rates. Ln the beginning of the nineteenth century, demographers
used the concepts of system science to predict the future population of
human beings.
The prediction of the spread of malaria has been made since the
beginning of twentieth century w i t h the help of the following equations:

dlh lh_Rh
=

d / f f

d Ih lh
where —— is the rate of increase of infected h u m a n , - is the number
-

dt t
of new infection per unit time; and Rh is the number of recovery per unit
time.
Similarly,

(1.18)

d im lm
where —— is the rate of increase of infected mosquitoes; ~ ~ is the

Dm
number of infection per unit time; and ~ ~ is the number of death of
infected mosquitoes.
The d i s c i p l i n e of c r o p science d i d not lag b e h i n d in u s i n g the
principles of systems science. In 1971, the first crop model came into
existence on cotton crop w i t h the emphasis on interfacing photosynthesis
w i t h other plant physiological processes.
International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer
(TBSNAT) project d i d a commendable job from September 1, 1982 to
6 Modeling Crop Production Systems

August 31, 1993, on modeling on varieties of cereals: wheat, maize, barley,

sorghum, millet and rice; grain legumes: soybean, peanut and dry bean;
root crops: cassava, a r o i d and potato; and other crops: s u n f l o w e r ,
sugarcane, pineapple, cotton (TBSNAT Decade, 1993).
A f t e r the c o m p l e t i o n of the I B S N A T project, the I n t e r n a t i o n a l
Consortium for A g r i c u l t u r a l Systems Applications (1CASA) came into
existence. 1CASA is an c o n s o r t i u m of i n d i v i d u a l s and organizations
i n v o l v e d in or interested i n systems research and a p p l i c a t i o n s . A
multidisciplinary effort is anticipated and expected in continuation of the
[ B S N A T p r o j e c t . ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l B e n c h m a r k Sites N e t w o r k for
Agrotechnology Transfer, November, 1993, The IBSNAT decade, IBSNAT,
Dept. of A g r o n o m y and SoiJ Science, College of Tropical Agriculture and
Human Resources, University of Hawaii, H o n o l u l u , Hawaii).
Sirotenko (2001) presented a brief history of crop modeling activities
in the former USSR. The author's view on the problems and perspective
of further development is delineated here. The history of crop-modeling
in the former Soviet Union is not tedious and monotonous. It started w i t h
the almost s i m u l t a n e o u s d e v e l o p m e n t of t w o c o m p e t i t i v e versions
(radiation and carbon dioxide) of the quantitative theory of plant canopy
photosynthesis. The first approach had been developed by Budagovsky
et al., (1964) and the second one was presented by Budyko (1964) and
Budyko and Gandin (1964). While y o u n g scientists were delighted w i t h
these works, the leading specialists rejected them as a mere mathematical
game. Still, an informal society called Weather-Yield Mathematics (WYM)
was established in 1968 to develop these new ideas under the leadership
of Professor Juhan Ross. In the following three decades, extensive and
rather effective activities on developing crop simulation models in the
former USSR have been carried out w i t h i n the f r a m e w o r k of W Y M ,
r e s u l t i n g in more than 20 m o n o g r a p h s and some 100 papers being
published.
Due to the economic crisis generated by the disintegration of the
USSR, the optimism of the participants of W Y M society has changed to
disappointment associated w i t h the lack of progress in the application
of mathematical models and computer in A g r o n o m y . Activities in this
field practically stopped for some years and only recently, there have
been some signs of reanimation. What are the conclusions that can be
d r a w n from an analysis of the experience gained in crop modeling in the
former USSR?
Sinclair and Saligman (1996) provided the historical aspects of the
crop modeling in describing the entire period of crop modeling into four
phases: (1) infancy, (2) juvenility, (3) adolescence, and (4) maturity.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 7

1.1.1 Infancy

Infancy refers to the period following World War 0 (1963-70), when

system analysis and computer science provided convenient and relatively
f r i e n d l y techniques to emulate the i n t e r a c t i o n of c o m p o n e n t s in a
complex system stimulated by the Cold War and space exploration. The
earliest models were d e v e l o p e d to estimate l i g h t i n t e r c e p t i o n and
photosynthesis in crop canopies (Loomis and W i l l i a m s , 1963; de W i t ,
1965; Duncan et ah, 1967; Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). These models
calculated the light profile in a canopy and made it possible to assess the
s e n s i t i v i t y of c r o p p h o t o s y n t h e t i c rates to solar angles, leaf angle
distribution, and the latitudinal position of the crop. These models were
relatively simple, but they opened the way to quantitative, mechanistic
estimates of the m a x i m u m attainable g r o w t h rates. Crop g r o w t h and
p o t e n t i a l y i e l d became q u a n t i t a t i v e l y and d e m o n s t r a b l y l i n k e d via
biochemical and biophysical mechanisms to the amount of solar energy
available for the accumulation of chemical energy and biomass by plants.

1.1.2 Juvenile Phase

In the juvenile phase, a further stimulus to crop modeling followed

by t r e m e n d o u s advances i n e q u i p m e n t s for field e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n
provided entirely new sets of data to use in models. These advances in
equipments included photocells to measure canopy light level, improved
anemometers to monitor the w i n d speed in and above the crop, and data
loggers w i t h m a g n e t i c data storage. The new e x p e r i m e n t a l data
encouraged a physico-chemical view of crop g r o w t h based on a detailed
description of the crop microclimate and the response of the plants to
this environment (Lemon et al., 1971; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).
Such models offered the promise of experimentation in the evaluation
of i m p r o v e d genetic material and new management techniques in the
context of a w i d e range of cropping environments (Bowen et al., 1973;
as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
I m p o r t a n t advances in describing the various subcomponents of
carbon assimilation were made d u r i n g this period and the significance
of stomatal conductance in regulating leaf gas exchange was q u a n t i ­
tatively described (Cowan, 1977; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996). The fate of photoassimilates in respiratory pathways was carefully
analyzed (Penning de Vries, 1975; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).
D e v e l o p m e n t a l processes of plants became an i m p o r t a n t consi­
deration as the time frame of models was lengthened to include the entire
8 Modeling Crop Production Systems

g r o w i n g season. Expressions for the partitioning of the assimilate among

various tissues, particularly to the grain, were important. The addition
of these various components led to a number of models of complexity
such as GOSSYM (Whisler et ah, 1986; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996), CERES (Ritchie et ah, 1985; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996), and SOYGRO (Wilkerson et al., 1985; as quoted in Sinclair and
Saligman, 1996).

1.1.3 Adolescence

The processes that determine the manner in w h i c h materials are

partitioned w i t h i n the plant are not well understood. In order to describe
these processes w i t h i n the p l a n t , m o d e l b u i l d e r s h a v e d e f i n e d
hypothetical pools of compounds that responded to supply and demand.
Such reductionism, w h e n inappropriately applied, can be misleading.
When a high level of plant organization is being modeled, its use may
well give a more distorted representation of organ g r o w t h than the use
of conservative allometric relationships (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). A
simple water balance model was found to be superior to C O T T A M and
GOSSYM in a p p r o x i m a t i n g crop water stress and field water balance
(Asare et al., 1992; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). A n empirical
equation was found to be superior to CERES in predicting the annual
potential wheat yields in Maxico (Bell and Fischer, 1994; as quoted in
Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). In simulating the water runoff from various
agricultural watersheds, Loague and Freeze (1985; as quoted in Sinclair
and S e l i g m a n , 1996) f o u n d a r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s u p e r i o r to a
quasi-physically-based model.
Increasing reductionism in models d i d not result in less variability
in predictions among the complex models (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
The practical consequence is that it is impossible to create universal crop
model (Spitters, 1990; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). N o t
surprisingly, it has been found that each new season or a new location
brings new challenges that were not foreseen in the original model, and
the expectation of u n i v e r s a l i t y fails (Sinclair and S e l i g m a n , 1996).
Attempts made to use the existing crop models developed for higher
latitudes failed an experiment to simulate crops in the semiarid tropics
of Australia (Carberry and Abrecht, 1991; as quoted in Sinclair and
Seligman, 1996). I m p o r t a n t deficiencies were found in each of three
complex wheat models even after they had been calibrated for a new set
of conditions in New Zealand (Porter et ah, 1993, as quoted in Sinclair
and Seligman, 1996).
This is a belief that crop model must be verified or validated. A l l
models are basically a collection of hypotheses, so they inherently cannot
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 9

be validated (Pease and Bull, 1992; Oreskes et al., 1994; as quoted in

Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). Not only can other collections of hypotheses
approximate the experimental results equally well, but the validation data
themselves are flawed by substantial experimental and observational
error (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
Despite all these shortcomings, crop models can be used effectively
to study the possible implications of various assumptions about a crop
or an environment. This v i e w p o i n t has been explicitly adopted by the
American Society of Agronomy towards publication of agronomic models
in the A g r o n o m y Journal. M o d e l i n g papers are desired that 'deal w i t h
both concepts and integration of agronomic information into model and 7

m o d e l ' V a l i d a t i o n ' is not to be considered as a major factor in the

acceptance of a paper (Hatfield, 1993, as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).
Overall, three of the original basic ideas of crop models have been
discredited: models are not necessarily i m p r o v e d by extensive reduc-
tionism; universal crop models can not be constructed; and models cannot
be validated. A l l of these changes have necessitated a new perspective
on the construction and benefits of crop models (Sinclair and Seligman,
1996).

1.1.4 Maturity

One can visualize crop models in teaching, research and applied

models as powerful aids where in reasoning about the performance of a
crop or about the relative benefits of alternative management strategies.
The crop models allow us to set our knowledge and assumptions about
the behavior of a crop in an organized, logical and dynamic framework.
After studying or using the models, faulty assumptions can be usually
identified and a more structural insight to the importance of specific
feedback effects acquired (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
The heuristic benefit of crop models in teaching is clear. Crop models
were i n t r o d u c e d i n t o the classroom more than 20 years ago, w i t h
c o n t i n u a l u p g r a d a t i o n (e.g. W a l d r e n , 1984; H a r t and Hanson, 1990;
Wullschleger et al., 1992; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). Crop
m o d e l i n g exercises are perceived by students as an effective tool for
teaching factors that influence crop production (Meisner et al., 1991; as
quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996). Relatively simple, transparent
models allow students to explore the major factors that influence crop
production under various circumstances. Learning is likely to be facili­
tated by using a model that is simple and transparent enough in its
structure to allow students to dissect it and to understand the logic
underlying behavior (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
10 Modeling Crop Production Systems

Research on crop systems or subsystems can use models to organize

concepts and information that reflect the current understanding of the
system as also to d e t e r m i n e their adequacy in e x p l a i n i n g relevant
phenomena. Shortcomings of the model can h i g h l i g h t i m p o r t a n t but
poorly understood aspects of the crop. The model needs to be structured
in such a manner that variables become physically or physiologically
meaningful and can be investigated either experimentally or by observing
the system behavior. Crop models can then prove to be quite useful in
analyzing experimental results by virtue of their ability to substantiate
possible causes of differences, thus p r o v i d i n g a level of interpretation
beyond the bounds of statistical significance that c u r r e n t l y guide the
analyses of crop experiments (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
Even the use of crop models in farm management has succeeded
more in an heuristic role rather than as an on-line decision aid. Examples
can be g i v e n of the S I R A T A C model for cotton pest management in
Australia (Ives and Hearn, 1987; as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996)
and the EPIPRE model for wheat pest management in the Netherlands
(Rabbinge and Rijsdijk, 1983, as quoted in Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
Each model requires the growers to pay for membership and supply field
observations to a central processing centre. A t the central processing
centre, model s i m u l a t i o n s p r o v i d e d the g r o w e r s w i t h u p d a t e d pest
management recommendations. In each case, there was an initial steady
increase in grower membership, which resulted in a general improvement
in pest m a n a g e m e n t . H o w e v e r , b o t h s y s t e m s s u f f e r e d a loss of
membership after the initial successes. The decline in participation has
been ascribed not to dissatisfaction w i t h the model results but to the fact
that the growers believed they had learned the lessons of the models and
could now manage on their o w n (Weiss, 1994, as quoted in Sinclair and
Seligman, 1996). The models were a success in the sense that they taught
the growers improved pest management by helping them interpret their
o w n field observations more effectively (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).
While crop models cannot produce all the answers to crop production
problems, when reasonably constructed, they can prove to be important
heuristic tools in teaching, research and in management and adminis­
trative applications. They can also be used to produce hypotheses and
knowledge, thereby a l l o w i n g the user to reason more consistently and
t r a n s p a r e n t l y about factors or c o n d i t i o n s that deserve t h o u g h t by
students, additional experimental study by researchers, or more attention
from growers. Intelligent, consistent, transparent reasoning—as well as
observations, experimentations and experience—cannot be replaced by
crop models, but they can be well supported by them. Because of the
large number of situations when the heuristics functions of crop models
can prove to be crucial, if not an indispensible tool, it is believed that
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 11

crop modeling can be expected to have a long and production maturity

(Sinclair and Seligman, 1996).

1.2. G E N E R A L T O P O L O G Y A N D T E R M I N O L O G Y O F S Y S T E M S

1.2.1 Variable

As is obvious, a variable w i l l vary w i t h times. A useful thumb ruJe

is to take the variables to be the inputs and outputs of the i n d i v i d u a l
components. A t the same t i m e , w h e n we define the variables, it is
convenient to assign them symbols so that we may refer to them later
w i t h o u t u n d u l y o v e r w o r k i n g ourselves.
A t the time, when the variables are listed, it is usually desirable to
specify their dimensions. The dimensions of a variable essentially reveal
what kind of physical entity the variable represents.
The overall i n p u t along w i t h the overall output represent the interac­
tion of the system w i t h its environment. In the investigation of a natural
system, the o v e r a l l i n p u t includes the e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s and
external stimuli applied to the system. The overall o u t p u t includes all
the observable responses. A n investigator often modifies the system so
as to obtain an o u t p u t not normally yielded by the system or to render
it abnormally sensitive to a particular type of input. When this is done,
the investigator must carefully consider the relationship between the
original system he or she wishes to learn about and the modified system
under study.
Even though most of the discussion is in terms of the rate of change
w i t h respect to time, the same consideration applies in discussing the rate
of change w i t h respect to any other variables taken as an independent
variable. Time is itself an independent variable; so is space may. M i n d ,
matter, energy may be classified as dependent variables.
Certain measurements increase by vanishingly small amounts, the
smallness being limited by one's ability to discriminate between corres­
pondingly fine differences. For example, if we were to take 1000 people,
all of them w e i g h i n g between 150 and 151 pounds, we could, if the scales
were sufficiently sensitive, arrange them in order of increasing weight.
O b v i o u s l y , i n o r d e r to d o t h i s , we w o u l d need a scale t h a t can
discriminate differences smaller than 1/1000 of a pound. Theoretically,
w i t h an unlimited population to draw from, we could take 1000 people
weighing people between 150.002 and 152.003 pounds and also arrange
them in order of weight if the scales were sensitive to less than 1/1000000
of a p o u n d . Needless to say, in real life, there w o u l d never be any
occasion to carry these measurements to such h a i r - s p l i t t i n g accuracy.
Nevertheless, a mean value of, say, 150.01 pounds has a conceptual
reality. Such variables are k n o w n as continuous variables.
12 Modeling Crop Production Systems

On the other hand, if a statistician states that the average family has
2.3 children, we hinder at the image of three tenths of a child. We do not
for a moment deny the utility of this mean for certain economic uses, but
we immediately realize that another class of values is i n v o l v e d . Such
measures are called discontinous variables. They can be arrived at by
counting rather than by measuring against a scale of some kind. Generally,
we enumerate progeny w i t h distinct characteristics; in studying epidemics,
we count cases; i n bacteriology, we count organisms, i n all of these
examples the units are indivisible, the count moves up, discontinues and
stops instead of rolling up a continuous slope.

1.2.2 Parameter

The distinction between parameters and overall inputs is not always

clear. Practically, quantities that display a great deal of variability are
usually treated as inputs, whereas those that are more nearly constant
are treated as parameters. So, for example, i f we have a g r o w i n g bacterial
population, the rate of g r o w t h as determined by temperature, nutrient
supply, acidity, and so on. The 'rate of g r o w t h ' , w h i c h is often treated
as a parameter, includes the dependence of the bacterial system upon its
environment.
A distinction may be made between inputs, outputs, parameters, and
state variables on the basis of their m u t u a l dependences, as accounted
for by the equations of the models. Inputs and parameters depend upon
none of the other quantities. Outputs depend upon inputs, parameters,
and state variables, while state variables depend upon inputs, parameters,
and each other.
The o v e r a l l o u t p u t depends on the instantaneous values of the
variables, that are to be taken as defining the instantaneous condition or
the state of the system and may be referred as state variables, i f we k n o w
the form of equations, the value of the i n p u t , and the values of the
parameters, then the model tells us how the state variables change.
Parameters may change w i t h the age. For example, the permeability
of the cell membrane may change w i t h time. The parameter value may
also depend upon the time of the day. For example, i n bee foraging, the
system parameters may depend upon time of the day.
The Gaussian or normal curve is described by the equation

For non-mathematics students, this equation w i l l certainly appear

i n c o m p r e h e n s i b l e , b u t i t is u s u a l l y not used d i r e c t l y i n b i o l o g i c a l
statistics. These are a few significant features of this equation, w h i c h can
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 13

be appreciated by even those w h o are relatively not comfortable w i t h

figures. In this equation, Y represents the relative frequency of some
variable quantity, x. The values for n and e are constant. % is the familiar
ratio of the circumference to the diameter of any circle, 3.1416; and e is
the base of the Neparian or natural logarithms. For those new to such
terminology, e may be taken as a constant in the same way that the value
of 7r is accepted.
The i m p o r t a n t features to be noted are the t w o parameters (i.e.,
numerical characteristics) j i and o, where j i is the arithmatic mean, and,
o the standard d e v i a t i o n . The standard deviation is a measure of the
spread of the data about the mean. Since the value for n and e are fixed
forever and constant, the entire curve is completely defined or charac­
terized by the t w o parameters, the mean and standard deviation. Thus,
parameters are the fixed values v a r y i n g from one population to another.
These are not fixed forever and, hence, are not constant.
In systems science, the topic of discussion m i g h t be the form of the
relationship between the variables and the manner in which this form
relates to behavior of the system and the hypothesized mechanisms
responsible for that p a r t i c u l a r behavior. These relationships i n v o l v e
parameters that can often be related to the expected frequency of occur­
rence of certain u n d e r l y i n g events.
For example, if the hypothesized equation is

where K is a parameter.
A single data point is enough to determine the value of K. Usually,
K w o u l d be estimated as the mean of at least t w o observations. Further­
more, if the difference between these two observations is more than what
could reasonably be ascribed to expected errors, additional observations
w o u l d have to be made in order to test the hypothesis that y is constant.
If the hypothesized relation is the straight Line.

the values of a and b can be determined from any t w o data points. If the
true relation is not a straight line, it cannot be determined from just t w o
points. Furthermore, even if the true relation is a straight line but one
(or both) of the points is appreciably in error, we get the w r o n g straight
line i.e. an erronous value for a and b.

1.2.3 System

A system may be any entity to w h i c h something comes in as exo­

genous i n p u t and s o m e t h i n g goes o u t as o u t p u t of the system. This
14 Modeling Crop Production Systems

o u t p u t may again influence the exogenous i n p u t , an aspect w h i c h is

completely ignored. System includes a component, state variables and
system parameters.
The levels of the biological system are:
(1) Molecule
( 2 ) Organell
(3) Cell
(4) Tissue
(5) Organ
(6) I n d i v i d u a l
(7) Population
(8) C o m m u n i t y
(9) Ecosystem
(10) Biosphere
Over the years, the concepts of system analysis have g r a d u a l l y
emerged into an accepted body of theory. Initially, system analysis was
conceived as an i n t e g r a t i n g f r a m e w o r k w h e r e i n c o m p l e x s y s t e m s -
possibly i n v o l v i n g several disciplines-could be studied (Boulding, K.E.
"General System Theory—The Skeleton Science', Man. Sci. Vol. 2, pp. 197¬
208, 1956, as quoted in Dent and Anderson, 1971). This inter disciplinary
function is even now of prime importance; major industrial, commercial
or military projects cannot be successfully handled w i t h i n the confines
of a single discipline. The system view is a holistic one, which implies
that an isolated study of parts of the system w i l l not be adequate to
understand the complete system. This is because the separate parts are
linked in an interacting manner. A system implies a complexity of factors
that interact; it implies an interaction between these factors and also that
a conceptual boundary may be erected around the complex as a limit to
its organizational autonomy (Dent, J.B. and J.R. Anderson, 1971). Fridgen
et al., (2004) defined the concept of identification and management of a
region w i t h i n the geographic area confined by field boundaries.

1.2.4 Dynamic Process/Mod el/System

D y n a m i c systems are systems or processes w h o s e state (state

variables of the system defined on the basis of inputs, parameters, and
each other) is constantly changing w i t h time. Even though most of the
discussion is in terms of the rate of change w i t h respect to time, the same
considerations apply in discussing the rates of change w i t h respect to any
other variable taken as independent. If the state of the system is specified
by the values of n state variables, it is convenient to represent it as a point
in ^-dimensional space, which is termed the state space for the system.
As the system changes in time, so does the position of the p o i n t that
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 15

represents the system. The change of the system in time is, therefore,
represented by the motion of a point in the ^-dimensional state space.
As the point moves, it traces out a path in the ^-dimensional state space,
which is referred to as the trajectory of the system. Thus, the system and
its progress in time can be represented either by a path (trajectory) in
state space or by an equation that describes the trajectory.
If the state is one- or t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l , then one can d r a w the
trajectory and visually exhibit the path in state space along w h i c h the
system 'moves'. However, such a d r a w i n g does not display how fast the
system moves along this path. It is like the map of a road on which an
automobile is travelling. The map shows how the automobile may travel,
but not how fast it moves, i f we wish to show the rate of motion of a
system in its state space (or of the automobile on the road), we must plot
the position of the system (or of the automobile) versus time. Time then
becomes (tf+l) dimension.
s1

Unfortunately, the ability to portray a curve in a ^-dimensional space

is lost when n is greater than three. The portrayal of a curve in three
dimensions is i n c o n v e n i e n t , b u t may be done either by means of a
projective d r a w i n g or by the physical construction of three-dimensional
curves, i n five or more dimensions, we have o n l y the mathematical
description, our power of imagination, and the possibility of constructing
two-dimensional projections as aids to the imagination.

1.2.5 Continuous versus Discrete State Spaces

The term 'continuous state space' implies that the state variables are
continuous, at least w i t h i n the regions of interest. A number of state
variables of interest in biology, including agriculture, are not continuous.
For example, the number of individuals in a population (whether of plant,
animals, m i c r o o r g a n i s m s , or molecules) can o n l y change by integer
amounts, in such a case, as the point that represents the system moves
through the state space, it moves in jumps rather than smoothly and
continuously. A differential equation to describe the direction and rate
of motion is not available unless the variables are continuous. However,
because the formalism is so convenient, discrete spaces are often treated
as continuous. The validity of such an approximation requires that the
sizes of the discrete jumps be small in relation to the ability w i t h which
we can or wish to measure changes in the system. To put it another way,
if the scale for which we observe the system is relative to the scale on
which the individual jumps occur, then the path of the system through
states space may appear to be continuous—just as a curve d r a w n on a
television screen appears to be continuous, even though it is composed
of many individual dots of light.
16 Modeling Crop Production Systems

1.2.6 Stochastic versus Deterministic Descriptions

In a d e t e r m i n i s t i c d e s c r i p t i o n , the b e h a v i o r of the system is

completely determined by its state and by the specified conditions. As a
result, a deterministic description of a dynamic system and its evolution
through time usually gives a description of a particular trajectory in a
state space. On the other hand, in a stochastic description, we have—for
each state that the system can be in—a distribution of probabilities on a
set of possible behaviors, i.e. on the set of possible directions and rates
of travel in the state space. The connection between deterministic and
stochastic descriptions is made on the basis of the expected or average
behavior. A l t h o u g h any real system must be considered to be subject to
a variety of uncertainties when the relative uncertainty is small compared
w i t h the need for accuracy, one may take advantage of the comparative
mathematical simplicity of the deterministic models.
In developing an explanatory model for a dynamic system, the pur­
pose is to understand how the general laws that govern the behavior of
the system arise from the laws that govern the constituent elementary
event. The v i e w point adopted is that these laws must always have a
certain degree of random or uncertain characters. This randomness has
to be taken into account unless the coefficient of variation is small, which
usually means that the density of events is very large (Gold, 1977).

1.2.6.2 Stochastic Models of Exponential Growth

The deterministic equation of exponential population g r o w t h

N = Ne
( Q
ri
(1.19)
predicts that a population w i t h a stable age distribution of an unlimited
environment w i l l increase in the shape of a smooth, exponential curve.
As pointed out by Poole (1974), although the superiority of conti­
n u o u s t i m e m o d e l s to t h e i r d i s c r e t e a p p r o x i m a t i o n s is clear,
u n f o r t u n a t e l y , in most cases they are extremely d i f f i c u l t to d e r i v e .
Discrete time a p p r o x i m a t i o n is slightly less difficult. Sometimes i t is
possible to derive a discrete time model a n d , by using the methods
discussed below, simulate the process for several time intervals. It is to
be noted, however, that in the discrete time model, the time variable t is
assumed to advance jumps of 1, although / is in reality a continuous
variable. If, as later happens, the birth rate or death rate is postulated to
be a function of time, it w i l l also be a continuous variable. The discrete
time approximation in these cases must assume the birth rate or death
rate to be constant d u r i n g a single interval of time, changing by a single
j u m p from one time interval to the next. The situation is analogous to
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 17

the discrete approximation of the percentage of the cohort alive d u r i n g

the m i d period of time interval and the fecundity of the female.
The advantage of the stochastic model over the equivalent deter­
m i n i s t i c m o d e l is its greater r e a l i t y . The greater c o m p l e x i t y of the
stochastic model, particularly in its derivation, tends in some cases to
outweigh their advantages. This is particularly true if the variance in the
number of individuals is small. There are cases, however, in which chance
deviations can push the result of a process either one way or the other.
Stochastic m o d e l s have an advantage of b e i n g more realistic than
deterministic models, predicting only what can happen and the proba­
bility of its happening, not what w i l l happen.
The methods employed to arrive at an answer using a discrete time
stochastic approximation to a continuous time situation are roughly the
same as p l a y i n g a game i n v o l v i n g chance. The expected n u m b e r is
calculated and modified by a factor representing a random sample from
the probability distribution to which the answer belongs.
The equations

denote the respected value of the p o p u l a t i o n size at t + 1, p l u s the

variance of the expected value. If the effect of chance variation is not
taken into consideration, the increase in density of a population begin
w i t h 20 individuals w i t h the parameters b = 0.52 and d = 0.48 as shown
in column 1 of Table 1.2.

T a b l e 1.2 A d e t e r m i n i s t i c a n d two s t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n s of
population growth in an u n l i m i t e d e n v i r o n m e n t
(b = 0.52, d = 0.48, N =
n 20)

T Deterministic Stochastic No. 1 Stochastic No. 2

0 20.000 20.000 20.000

1 20.816 14.641 27.129
2 21.665 18.352 32.422
3 22.549 20.381 22.832
4 23.469 21.678 18.889
5 24.426 18.159 17.287
6 25.423 25.091 10.795
7 26.460 28.838 7.478
8 27.540 23.823 10.319
9 28.663 15.339 10.012
10 29.833 17.861 15.277
18 Modeling Crop Production Systems

The calculations in column 1 are strictly deterministic. To make the

result stochastic, the following steps are taken:
1. Calculate the expected number at time t + 1 .
2. Calculate the variance of the estimate.
3. Calculate the standard d e v i a t i o n , i.e. the square root of the
variance.
4. Pick a n u m b e r at r a n d o m from a table of r a n d o m n o r m a l
deviates and m u l t i p l y it by the standard deviations.
5. A d d the answer from step 4 to the answer from step 1. This is
a possible size of the population at time / + 1.
This procedure assumes that the distribution of a possible answer is
normally distributed. In this case, the distribution of the possible answer
is approximately normal except at low population densities. It should be
emphasized, however, that the d i s t r i b u t i o n is not necessarily always
normal, e.g. it might have an exponential distribution. A n example w i t h
the parameters above is:

1. £ ( N ) = 20.816
+ 1

2. var ( N ,) = 21.232
/ f

3. Standard deviations = 4.608

4. A random normal deviates, -1.38, times the standard deviation,
4.608 = - 6.359
5. 20.816 - 6.359 = 14.457
A table of random normal deviates in Beyer (1968, as quoted in Poole,
1974) was used. A random normal deviate is a number d r a w n at random
from the standardized normal d i s t r i b u t i o n . U n l i k e r a n d o m numbers,
where each number is equally likely to occur, random normal deviates
are normally distributed. Even though the birth rate is greater than the
death rate—although they are nearly equal—a chance negative deviation
has caused the population to decrease rather than increase as expected.
The course of stochastic p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h can be simulated by
repeatedly carrying out the above calculations. For example, this stochastic
estimate of the population after the second interval of time can be arrived
at by taking 14.641 as the population density at time /, recomputing the
standard deviation, selecting another random normal deviate, and so on.
A stochastic representation of population growth for 10 intervals of time
is plotted against w i t h the deterministic result in Figure 1.4.
Because deviations are random, if this procedure were repeated then
the exact path of the g r o w t h of the population would not be the same as
it was the first time. The calculation of a second set of 10 intervals of time
is shown in column 3 of Table 1.2.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 19

If long periods of time are involved in the simulation, as they often

are, or if large numbers of replications of the simulation are needed to
estimate the variance of the population at sometime /, the calculations
become tedious. The calculations are easily programd for a computer and
a subroutine can be used to generate random normal deviates.

Fig. 1.4 Population g r o w t h in an artificial p o p u l a t i o n w i t h parameters b - .52, d - .48 and

N — 20. Solid line, the deterministic m o d e l ; dashed Line, a M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n of
Q

the discrete t i m e stochastic m o d e l of exponential p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .

1.2.7 Modeling

M o d e l i n g is a creation of some representation of the i m p o r t a n t

aspects of some system of interest. Modeling is an organized activity.

1.2.8 Model

Gold (1977) defined the w o r d 'model . ' M o d e l ' is used w i t h more or

7

less the same meaning as its every day meaning. A certain object (call it
object M ) is a model of another object (object S), provided the following
conditions hold:
1. There is some collection of components of M , each of w h i c h
corresponds to a component of S;
2. For certain relationships, the relation between the component of
M is analogous to that between the corresponding components
of S.
So, for e x a m p l e , the features o f a m a r i o n e t t e are i n t e n d e d to
correspond to that of human being that it models, and certain relations
20 Modeling Crop Production Systems

between the features are the same in both. Similarly, the architect's blue­
print is a model for a finished building.
A mathematical equation simply consists of a collection of symbols,
some of which stand for variables (quantities w i t h number and dimen­
sion) and some of w h i c h stand for operations on these variables (such
as a d d i t i o n , multiplication, and differentiation), i f the variables can be
associated w i t h physical entities for a given real w o r l d system and if the
r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n the v a r i a b l e s in the m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n is
analogous to the relation between the corresponding physical entities,
then we may say that the mathematical expression is a model for the real
w o r l d system.
C o n d i t i o n s (1) and (2) define the w o r d ' m o d e l ' in the sense that
anything that has these t w o properties qualifies as a model and anything
that lacks one or the other of them does not. Notice, however, that this
definition does not require the model M to be an exact duplicate of object
S. That is, c o n d i t i o n (1) does not require every c o m p o n e n t of M to
correspond to a component of S or vice versa. N o r does condition (2)
require that every relationship between components of S be mirrored by
an analogous relationship in the model. For example, the ratio of arm
length to leg length may be the same for the marionette as for a human,
but the difference between the arm length and leg length is not normally
the same for the two. Furthermore, the mechanism by which the human
being moves has no analogy in the mechanism by which the marionette
operates. It should be clear that the two objects cannot correspond to each
other in every detail unless they are identical objects; in which case, the
concept of the model loses its usefulness.
in constructing a model, one of the first jobs is, therefore, to decide
which characteristics of the object or system of interest are going to be
represented in the model, in order to make such decisions, the purpose
of making the model must be defined as clearly as possible.
We may d i v i d e mathematical models into two broad types that Gold
called correlative and explanatory models. Beckner (1959, as quoted in
Gold 1977) referred to them non-explanatory and explanatory models,
w h i l e Poole (1974) c a l l e d them i n d u c t i v e and d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s .
Regression models are inductive. A n experiment is run or observations
are made, the data are plotted, and a regression equation is fitted to the
data, depending on the functional relationship suggested by the data.
Models may also be derived deductively, in a deductive model, we make
a logical hypothesis about the process being s t u d i e d , f o r m u l a t e the
hypothesis in the form of a mathematical model and then try to fit the
model to the data. Sometimes a model may be derived by a combination
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 21

of deductive and inductive methods. A deductive model is fit to the data

and, based on the observed residuals of the model to the data, the model
is modified.

1.2.9 Steps in Modeling

The system in operation in a computer is called s i m u l a t i o n and a

system as a blueprint on paper is called a model.

1.2.9.1 First Step: Define the Problem

To begin w i t h , one must define the characteristic of the object or

system of interest. If one wants to simulate the ratio of the arm length to
the leg length of a marionette w i t h that of a human being, then he should
keep the same ratio of arm and leg in marionette as is in human being.
If one wants to simulate the mechanism in movement of the marionette
as of the human being, then he should keep in m i n d the mechanism of
m o v e m e n t of the h u m a n b e i n g w h i l e s i m u l a t i n g the m o v e m e n t
mechanism of the marionette. So, a modeler should be clearly focused
about the object of the m o d e l i n g . K e e p i n g in m i n d the objective of
modeling, the system must be defined accordingly.

1.2.9.2 Second Step: Component Identification

Next, one should identify the major subsystems, processes, compo­

nents, elements, etc., i m p o r t a n t to the o p e r a t i o n of the system and
identify the links between them. This step may be examplified as:

Fig. 1.5 A top d o w n structured approach.

22 Modeling Crop Production Systems

1.2.9.3 Third Step: Specify Component Behavior

Developing a quantitative or mathematical relationship between the

inputs of each component and their outputs.
(1) What is the general form of the relationships?
(2) H o w can that form be represented numerically?
(3) H o w can mathematics be fitted to the data?

1.2.9.4 Fourth Step: Computer Implementation

This step includes alJ the stages necessary to convert a model descri­
ption to a computer program which simulates the system and produces
useful outputs. Program is a tool which reveals the manner in which these
models perform.

1.2.9.5 Fifth Step: Validation

The validation is a comparison of model behavior w i t h that of the

real system. In a management model, one should answer the question
' W h a t is the risk of m a k i n g poor recommendation?' In the research
model, one should answer the question 'Is there significant deviation
between predicted and observed behavior?'

1.2.9.6 Sixth Step: Analysis

1.2.9.6.1 Sensitivity Analyses

Sensitivity analysis isolates those variables and parameters to which

model outputs are most responsive. If there are two parameters A and
B, by changing these two variables in the system w i t h the same extent,
and on the supposition that A parameter gives 20% change in outputs
and B parameter gives only 2% change in outputs, than can we say that
parameter A is more sensitive in changing the system o u t p u t than the
parameter B.

1.2.9.6.2 Stability Analyses

Stability analysis helps in delineating the conditions of the system,

which may maintain the system stability rather than extinction of the
system. System stability depends upon the interaction between biotic and
abiotic stresses.
 Philosophy, Role and Terminology of System Science 23

1.3 T H R E E P R O B L E M S

Management, Research, Design.

1.3.1 System Management Problem

Here, a system is stated along w i t h certain performance criteria and

ways of controlling the system so that it functions in an optimal manner.
Problem: Control of some insects.
(i) Needs an analysis.
(ii) Formulate alternative management approaches.
(a) Current practice (Calender sprays).
(b) Integrated bio-chemical control.
(c) Host plant resistance.
(iii) Feasibility analysis.
(iv) Model to predict the performance of the system when managed
by each of the alternative strategies.
(v) Choose the management strategy which works the 'best and 7

implement it.

1.3.2 Pure Research Problem

Here, a partially understood system is stated w i t h certain 'goodness

to fit' criteria that determine the efficiency of the existing knowledge.
(1) Formulate a hypothesis.
(2) Make a prediction.
(3) Conduct controlled experiments.
(4) Compare results to prediction.
(5) Accept or reject hypothesis.

Restated Procedure

(i) Choose the topic to be investigated based on the current model.

(ii) Formulate a hypothesis in the form of a suggested modification
to this model.
(iii) Make prediction based on the modified model.
(iv) Conduct a controlled experiment m o n i t o r i n g any controlled
inpu ts.
(v) Compare the predicted versus observed behavior.
(vi) Accept or reject hypothesis (acceptance is equivalent to retain­
ing the modified and discarding the original).
24 Modeling Crop Production Systems

1.3.3 System Design Problem

Here, one is given some sets of needs and performance criteria and
has to create a system which meets all these needs.
(i) Needs analyses
(a) Define the need precisely.
(b) Evaluate the needs.
(c) Evolve a criteria for j u d g i n g the potential systems.
(ii) Formulate possible design alternatives.
(a) Train the growers.
(b) W o r k on a state-operated c o u n t y p r o g r a m — h i g h labor
intensive.
(c) Mobile mite control lab—high capital intensive.
(d) Redirect state survey staff.
(e) Current practice.
(iii) Feasibility analysis—rough screening to eliminate obviously
unsuitable alternatives.
(iv) Modeling—build model to predict the behavior of each of the
alternative systems.
(v) Choose the system to build based on performance criteria and
predicted system behavior.

REFERENCES

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 2
Development of Model Structure

2.1 V A R I A B L E S A N D T H E I R C L A S S I F I C A T I O N

2.1.1 Individual Observations

Such observations comprise measures and measurements taken on

the smallest sampling unit, if we measure weight in 100 rats, then the
weight of each rat is an i n d i v i d u a l observation; the weight of a hundred
rats together represents the sample of observations.

2.1.2 Sample of Observations

A sample of observations is defined as a collection of i n d i v i d u a l

o b s e r v a t i o n s r e c o r d e d by a s p e c i f i e d p r o c e d u r e . O n e i n d i v i d u a l
observation is based on a single unit in a biological sense i.e., one rat.
However, if we had studied the weight of a single rat over a period of
t i m e , the sample of i n d i v i d u a l observations w o u l d be the w e i g h t s
recorded of one rat at successive times. If we w i s h to measure the
temperature in a study of ant colonies, w h e n each colony is a basic
sampling unit, each temperature reading for one colony is an i n d i v i d u a l
observation, and the sample of observations is the temperature for all the
colonies considered. A synonym for i n d i v i d u a l observation is item.

2.1.3 Variables

' I n d i v i d u a l observation and 'sample of observations' define only the

7

structure but not the nature of the data in a study. The actual property
measured by the i n d i v i d u a l observations is the character or variable. The
more common term employed in general statistics is variable. However,
in biology, the w o r d character is frequently used synonymously. More
than one character can be measured on each smallest unit. Thus, in a
group of 25 mice, we might measure the blood p H and the erythrocyte
count. Each of the 25 mice (a b i o l o g i c a l i n d i v i d u a l ) is the smallest
sampling unit; blood p H and red cell count w o u l d be the t w o characters
28 Modeling Crop Production Systems

studied; the p H readings and cell counts are the i n d i v i d u a l observations,

and the result w o u l d be t w o samples of 25 observations on p H and
e r y t h r o c y t e c o u n t . O r w e may speak o f b i v a r i a t e s a m p l e of 25
observations, each referring to a p H reading paired w i t h an erythrocyte
count.

2.1.4 Population

The biological definition of population refers to all the individuals

of a given species found in a circumscribed area at a given time. In
statistics, population always means the totality of i n d i v i d u a l observations
about which inferences are to be made, existing anywhere in the w o r l d
or atleast w i t h i n a definitely specified sampling area which is limited in
space and time.

2.1.5 Variables and Their Classification

The b i o l o g i c a l variables have already been referred to, b u t the

variables are yet to be defined. A variable is defined as a property w i t h
respect to which individuals in a sample differ in some ascertainable way.
If the property does not differ w i t h i n a sample at hand or at least among
the samples b e i n g s t u d i e d , it cannot be of statistical interest. Being
entirely uniform, such a property w o u l d also not be a variable from the
etymological p o i n t of view. Lengths, height, weight, number of teeth,
vitamin C content, and genotypes are examples of variables in ordinary,
genetically and phenotypically diverse groups of organisms.
Variables can be divided as follows:
1. Measurement variables
(a) Continuous variables
(b) Discontinuous variables
2. Ranked variables (ordinals)
3. Attributes (nominals)

2.1.5.1 Measurement Variables

Measurement variables are such variables whose differing states can

be expressed in a numerically ordered fashion. They are divisible into
t w o kinds. The first of these are continuous variables, w h i c h , at least
theoretically, can assume an infinite number of values between any two
fixed points. For example, between the two length measurements 1.5 and
1.6 cm, there is an infinite number of lengths that could be measured if
one were so inclined and have a precise enough method of calibration
to o b t a i n such measurements. A n y g i v e n r e a d i n g of a c o n t i n u o u s
 Development of Model Structure 29

variable, such as length of 1.57 cm is, therefore, an approximation to the

exact reading, w h i c h in practice is unknowable. However, for purpose
of computation, these approximations are usually sufficient and may even
be m a d e m o r e a p p r o x i m a t e by r o u n d i n g them off. M a n y of these
variables studied i n b i o l o g y are continuous variables. Examples are
lengths, areas, volumes, weights, angles, temperatures, periods of time,
percentages, rates.

2.1.5.2 Discontinuous Variables

These variables are also k n o w n as meristic or discrete variables. These

variables have only certain fixed numerical values, w i t h no intermediate
values possible in between. Thus, the number of segments in a certain
insect appendage may be 4 or 5 or 6 b u t never 5V£ or 4.3. Examples of
d i s c o n t i n u o u s variables are n u m b e r s of a certain s t r u c t u r e such as
segments, bristles, teeth, or glands, the number of offspring, the number
of colonies of microorganisms or animals, or the number of plants in a
given quadrate.
Not all variables restricted to integral numerical values are meristic.
A n example w i l l illustrate this point. If an animal behaviorist were to
code the reactions of animals in a series of experiments as: (1) very
aggressive; (2) aggressive; (3) n e u t r a l ; (4) submissive; and (5) very
submissive, one m i g h t be tempted to believe that these five different
states of the variable were meristic because they assume integral values.
H o w e v e r , they are clearly only arbitrary points (class marks) along a
continuum of aggressiveness; the only reason w h y no values such as 1.5
occur is because the experimenter did not wish to subdivide the behavior
classes too finely, either for reasons of convenience or because of inability
to d e t e r m i n e more than these five s u b d i v i s i o n s of this spectrum of
behavior w i t h accuracy. Thus, the variable is clearly continuous rather
than meristic, as it m i g h t have appeared at first sight.

2.1.6 Ranked Variables

Some variables cannot be measured but can certainly be ordered or

ranked on the basis of their magnitude. Thus, in an experiment, one might
record the rank order of emergence of ten pupae w i t h o u t specifying the
exact time at which each pupa emerged. In such cases, we code the data
as a ranked variable on the order of emergence. Special methods to deal
w i t h such variables have been developed. By expressing a variable as a
series of ranks such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, we do not i m p l y that the difference
i n m a g n i t u d e b e t w e e n , say, ranks 1 and 2 is i d e n t i c a l to or even
proportional to the difference between, 2 and 3. Such an assumption is
made for the measurement variables, discussed above.
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