Portfolio Optimization
Portfolio Optimization
FIN 455
Section: 2
Submitted To:
Mirza M. Ferdous
Senior Lecturer
Department of Accounting and Finance
North South University
Submitted By:
Company Overview
GP (Grameenphone) is Bangladesh's largest mobile telecommunications
operator based on subscribers and revenue. It's a blue-chip stock on the
Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) known for its consistent dividend payout and
is considered one of the safest investment choices. The high dividend payout
paired with GP being a fundamentally undervalued stock is the primary
reason we picked GP.
Trading Code SQURPHARMA
Industry Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals
Market Cap. (BDT bn) 178.27
Share Price (BDT) 201.1
Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 8,864.51
Market Category A
Credit Rating AAA
Trading Code GP
Market Cap. (BDT mn) 307328.285
Share Price (BDT) 229.1
Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 13503
Market Category A
Credit Rating AAA
Company Overview
Company Overview
BRAC Bank Limited, established in 2001, has emerged as
one of the prominent players in Bangladesh's banking sector.
Since, government banks are proving unreliable through
recent events, public confidence is growing in BRAC Bank,
as can be seen on the news as BRAC was featured as one of
the seven banks that are faring better than others. This is why
we picked Brac Bank.
Trading Code WALTONHIL
Industry Electrical and home appliances
Market Cap. (BDT bn) 144.83
Share Price (BDT) 478
Paid-up Capital (BDT mn 3,029.28
Market Category A
Credit Rating AAA
Year 2021
Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3
Walton 18% 18% 4%
Square 9% 8% 5%
GP 7% 5% 12%
BRAC 2% 15% 6%
DSEX 11% 9% 13%
2023
Q3 0.00% 0.15%
2023 Q4 0.00% 1.13%
Q1 -15.91% 0.77%
2024 Q2 -11.71% 0.79%
Excess Returns
Date Walton
1-Jan-2021 -7.06%
1-Feb-2021 14.20%
1-Mar-2021 -3.39%
1-Apr-2021 -1.33%
1-May-2021 5.71%
1-Jun-2021 3.95%
1-Jul-2021 3.09%
1-Aug-2021 -1.30%
1-Sep-2021 -9.97%
1-Oct-2021 -10.15%
1-Nov-2021 -6.65%
1-Dec-2021 3.00%
1-Jan-2022 -9.00%
1-Feb-2022 3.12%
1-Mar-2022 -3.95%
1-Apr-2022 6.62%
1-May-2022 -8.87%
1-Jun-2022 0.60%
1-Jul-2022 -5.18%
1-Aug-2022 -1.31%
1-Sep-2022 -1.12%
1-Oct-2022 -1.10%
1-Nov-2022 -1.10%
1-Dec-2022 -1.10%
1-Jan-2023 -1.10%
1-Feb-2023 -1.10%
1-Mar-2023 -1.10%
1-Apr-2023 -1.10%
1-May-2023 -1.10%
1-Jun-2023 -1.10%
1-Jul-2023 -1.10%
1-Aug-2023 -1.10%
1-Sep-2023 -1.10%
1-Oct-2023 -1.10%
1-Nov-2023 -1.10%
1-Dec-2023 -1.10%
1-Jan-2024 -34.15%
1-Feb-2024 -2.07%
1-Mar-2024 -14.81%
1-Apr-2024 -7.35%
1-May-2024 -18.26%
1-Jun-2024 -11.11%
Continous Mont
BRACBANK DSEX Date WALTONHIL
42.79 5,649.86 1/1/2021 -5.96%
51.44 6,756.65 12/1/2021 4.10%
51.35 6,926.29 1/1/2022 -7.90%
38.50 6,206.81 12/1/2022 0.00%
38.50 6,267.05 1/1/2023 0.00%
35.8 6,246.50 12/1/2023 0.00%
37.7 6,153.34 1/1/2024 -33.06%
33.9 5,237.32 6/1/2024 -10.01%
Quarterly Weights
2022 202
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
4% 7% 14% 9% 4% 9%
15% 10% 9% 12% 3% 2%
15% 15% 11% 10% 4% 2%
15% 3% 4% 7% 4% 4%
10% 8% 6% 8% 4% 5%
2023
-0.24% 6.23% -0.36% Q3
-0.80% -0.13% 0.18% 2023 Q4
-2.02% -3.56% 0.01% Q1
-3.55% -3.67% -1.33% 2024 Q2
Excess Returns
Square GP BRAC DSEX
4.73% 6.54% 2.92% -2.62%
-7.13% -10.07% -12.30% -11.64%
-10.15% -3.54% -16.78% -9.58%
6.89% 2.54% 0.96% -3.46%
0.01% 1.53% 15.36% 1.71%
0.61% 0.29% -10.44% -4.58%
2.42% 7.61% -6.52% -2.84%
1.50% -5.10% -10.68% -0.53%
6.10% 4.14% -5.04% -0.73%
-10.53% -6.48% -9.98% -11.79%
-3.99% -3.49% 10.74% -11.55%
0.62% -0.26% -4.11% -6.41%
2.16% 1.21% -6.28% -4.73%
-1.05% -5.17% -8.31% -9.94%
-0.46% -3.92% -14.41% -6.94%
2.23% -3.38% -6.61% -8.73%
-4.81% -4.69% -17.37% -11.24%
-0.28% -4.93% -5.14% -7.46%
-2.98% -0.53% -13.35% -11.09%
-0.74% -2.84% -6.11% -2.07%
-1.17% -1.02% -6.37% -6.32%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -10.45%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -8.35%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -7.68%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -6.24%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -8.01%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -7.37%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -6.31%
-0.55% -0.60% -13.38% -5.99%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -7.14%
-0.55% -0.60% -6.11% -7.51%
0.06% -0.60% -6.11% -7.61%
-1.17% -0.60% -6.11% -7.44%
0.06% -0.60% -6.11% -7.30%
-1.17% -0.60% -6.11% -8.10%
-0.32% -0.60% -6.11% -6.83%
3.04% -0.60% -0.94% -8.71%
-1.11% -0.60% 6.34% -5.58%
-0.14% -19.27% -12.14% -15.13%
-3.73% -1.45% -9.91% -10.62%
-1.70% -5.96% -19.94% -13.35%
-3.03% 1.22% -5.52% -7.49%
Continous Monthy Return
SQURPHARMA GP BRACBANK DSEX
5.28% 7.14% 9.03% 4.59%
1.17% 0.34% 2.00% 0.79%
2.72% 1.81% -0.18% 2.48%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.47%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97%
0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.38%
3.60% 0.00% 5.17% -1.50%
-2.48% 1.82% 0.59% -0.28%
2023 2024
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
3% 4% 3% 2% 1%
6% 2% 6% 5% 8%
2% 3% 3% 3% 8%
9% 9% 7% 9% 6%
3% 7% 3% 4% 9%
There is a higher weight in Brac Bank in 2024 Q1, and Q2. That is because of
Islami Bank going bankrupt, which increased the confidence in Brac bank, as
it also was featured in news articles due to it.
For the DSEX, we assigned less weight to Q2 and Q4 overall, due to Eid
being in that time frame. That is because, investors of Bangladesh typically
withdraw money during Eid time.
In 2022, due to the economic slowdown and rising costs brought about by the
Russian-ukraine conflict, most companies as well as banks made losses. So,
we assigned less weight to that year. However, pharmaceuticals were
correction phase.
In 2022, due to the economic slowdown and rising costs brought about by the
Russian-ukraine conflict, most companies as well as banks made losses. So,
we assigned less weight to that year. However, pharmaceuticals were
somewhat better off during this time, which is why we added a little more
weight to Square pharmaceuticals.
Variance-Covariance Matrix
WALTONHIL
WALTONHIL 0.00673
SQURPHARMA 0.00061
GP 0.00142
BRACBANK 0.00257
riance-Covariance Matrix
SQURPHARMA GP BRACBANK
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0.00171 0.00000 0.00000
0.00000 0.00299 0.00000
0.00000 0.00000 0.00869
riance-Covariance Matrix
SQURPHARMA GP BRACBANK
0.00019 0.00045 0.00082
0.00171 0.00048 0.00076
0.00048 0.00299 0.00109
0.00076 0.00109 0.00869
Shrinkage Factor
0.32
Portfolio Statistics
Portfolio X Portfolio Y
Expected Return 2.70% 2.85%
Variance 0.17% 0.30%
Covariance (X,Y) 0.0021
Correlation (X,Y) 0.9457
Table of Returns
Proportion of XY Expected Return
Standard Deviation
0% 2.85% 5.47%
5% 2.85% 5.39%
10% 2.84% 5.32%
15% 2.83% 5.25%
20% 2.82% 5.20%
25% 2.81% 5.15%
30% 2.81% 5.11%
35% 2.80% 5.08%
40% 2.79% 5.06%
45% 2.78% 5.05%
50% 2.78% 5.04%
55% 2.77% 5.05%
60% 2.76% 5.06%
65% 2.75% 5.08%
70% 2.74% 5.11%
75% 2.74% 5.15%
80% 2.73% 5.20%
85% 2.72% 5.25%
90% 2.71% 5.32%
95% 2.70% 5.39%
100% 2.70% 5.47%
ariance Matrix Expected Return
GP BRACBANK WALTONHIL 1.10%
0.00045 0.00082 SQURPHARMA 2.21%
0.00048 0.00076 GP 2.41%
0.00299 0.00109 BRACBANK 6.11%
0.00109 0.00869
Combined Portfolio
Proportion of XY 0.5
Expected Return 2.78%
Variance 0.25%
Standard Deviation 5.04%
2.80%
Exp
0.26%
0.25% 2.75%
0.25% 2.70%
0.25%
2.65%
0.26%
0.26% 2.60%
2.55%
2.50%
5.00% 5.05% 5.10% 5.15% 5.20% 5.25% 5.30% 5.35% 5.40% 5.45% 5.50%
E
2.65%
2.60%
0.26%
2.55%
0.27%
0.27% 2.50%
5.00% 5.05% 5.10% 5.15% 5.20% 5.25% 5.30% 5.35% 5.40% 5.45% 5.50%
0.28%
0.28%
0.29%
0.30%
each portfolio have been assigned
et cap and industry growth potential.
Optimal
Portfolio XProportions
Portfolio Y
proportion of portfolio X
in Assets
GP BRACBANK
10.00% 10.00%
7.50% 15.00%
17.50% 25.00%
WALTONHIL
SQURPHARMA
GP
BRACBANK
SQURPHARMA
GP
BRACBANK
Risk Free Rate 12.50%
Expected returns 7.21% 10-year T-Bond
rate
Table of Returns
Proportion of XY Expected Return Standard Deviation
0% 2.85% 5.47%
5% 2.85% 5.39%
10% 2.84% 5.32%
15% 2.83% 5.25%
20% 2.82% 5.20%
25% 2.81% 5.15%
30% 2.81% 5.11%
35% 2.80% 5.08%
40% 2.79% 5.06%
45% 2.78% 5.05%
50% 2.78% 5.04%
55% 2.77% 5.05%
60% 2.76% 5.06%
65% 2.75% 5.08%
70% 2.74% 5.11%
75% 2.74% 5.15%
80% 2.73% 5.20%
85% 2.72% 5.25%
90% 2.71% 5.32%
95% 2.70% 5.39%
100% 2.70% 5.47%
Portfolio Statistics
Portfolio X Portfolio Y
Expected Return 7.92% 7.73%
Beta 0.87 0.90
Table of Returns
Proportion of X Proportion of Y Beta
0.00% 100.00% 0.902
5.00% 95.00% 0.900
10.00% 90.00% 0.898
15.00% 85.00% 0.897
20.00% 80.00% 0.895
25.00% 75.00% 0.893
30.00% 70.00% 0.891
35.00% 65.00% 0.889
40.00% 60.00% 0.888
45.00% 55.00% 0.886
50.00% 50.00% 0.884
55.00% 45.00% 0.882
60.00% 40.00% 0.880
65.00% 35.00% 0.879
70.00% 30.00% 0.877
75.00% 25.00% 0.875
80.00% 20.00% 0.873
85.00% 15.00% 0.871
90.00% 10.00% 0.870
95.00% 5.00% 0.868
100.00% 0.00% 0.866
Efficient Frontier
3.00%
2.95%
Variance
2.90%
0.30%
2.85%
0.29%
Expected Return
2.80% Expected
0.28%
2.75%
0.28%
2.70%
0.27%
2.65%
0.27%
2.60%
0.26%
2.55%
0.26%
2.50%
0.26% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 5.50%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.26% CML Adjusted Frontier
15.00%
0.26%
14.50%
0.26% 14.00%
0.27% 13.50%
0.27% 13.00%
0.28% 12.50%
12.00%
0.28%
11.50%
0.29%
11.00%
0.30% 10.50%
10.00%
9.50%
9.00%
8.50%
Expected Return
8.00%
7.50%
7.00%
6.50%
6.00%
5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
6.50%
E
6.00%
5.50%
5.00%
olio 4.50%
4.00%
GP BRACBANK
3.50%
20.00% 20.00% 3.00%
15.00% 30.00% 2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
Adjusted CAPM & BETA
1.00%
CAPM 7.82%
0.50%
Beta 88.40% 0.00%
5.00% 5.05% 5.10% 5.15% 5.20%
10.00%
7.77%
8.00% Expec
7.78%
7.79% 6.00%
7.80% 4.00%
7.80% 2.00%
7.81%
0.00%
7.82% 0.860 0.865 0.870 0.875 0.880 0.885 0.890 0.895 0.900 0.905
7.83% Beta
7.84%
7.85%
7.86%
7.87%
7.88%
7.89%
7.90%
7.91%
7.92%
Expected Return
djusted Frontier
Expected Return
% 5.05% 5.10% 5.15% 5.20% 5.25% 5.30% 5.35% 5.40% 5.45% 5.50%
cient Frontier
Expected Return
Shrinken Variance
WALTONHIL
WALTONHIL 0.00673
SQURPHARMA 0.00019
GP 0.00045
BRACBANK 0.00082
Walton 1.33%
Square 1.15%
GP 1.23%
Brac bank 1.34%
Market Portfolio
Walton 14.94%
Square 53.14%
GP 26.52%
Brac bank 5.40%
GP BRACBANK
309,353.74 59,639.30
44.95% 8.67%
30.00% 16.17%
percentage annually 3%
Benchmark Portfolio
Company Name Walton Square GP
Proportions 27.93% 25.90% 30.00%
Market Portfolio
Company Name Walton Square GP
Proportions 14.94% 53.14% 26.52%
Opinion Adjusted
Company Name Walton Square GP
Proportions 18.43% 50.96% 25.43%
Bracbank
5.40%
Bracbank
5.18%