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BIMCO Container Shipping Market Overview Outlook September 2024 Highlights

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gagan nigam
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34 views1 page

BIMCO Container Shipping Market Overview Outlook September 2024 Highlights

Uploaded by

gagan nigam
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook

Disruption remains the key demand driver

Supply/demand Demand Supply

Ship supply is expected to grow on According to the IMF, the world Ship deliveries will hit a new record
average 10.3% in 2024 and 6.3% in economy will grow 3.2% and 3.3% in high in 2024, beating the record set in
2025. After increasing in 2024, sailing 2024 and 2025 respectively. Of the 2023. The fleet is expected to grow
speeds are expected to reduce in world’s five largest economies, only 14.5% between end 2023 and end
2025. the EU will grow faster than in 2023. 2025.

Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope


is expected to impact all of 2024. We Global manufacturing PMI continues
Recycling is expected to remain low
forecast that ship demand will to indicate stability as it hovers
in 2024 as the Red Sea situation
increase 15.5% in 2024 and fall 5.5% around 50. In China, PMI for new
increases demand for ships. Recycling
in 2025 if ships return to the Suez export orders has dipped below 50
could increase in 2025.
Canal. during the past 4 months.

On average, the supply/demand Retail sales in the US are down


balance will be stronger in 2024 than Congestion remains low in most
slightly while up slightly in the EU.
in 2023. Weakening during 2nd half of ports. Failure to renew longshoremen
EU consumers are reporting higher
2024 has begun and will gather speed contract for US East and Gulf Coast
confidence while US consumers’
if ships return to the Suez Canal. could cause disruptions.
confidence has slipped backwards.

Significant uncertainty remains as it The long sailing distances around the


Attacks on ships in the Red Sea have
is unknown when ships can return to Cape of Good Hope have led to a
forced 90-90% of container ships to
the Red Sea. If they cannot return slight increase in sailing speeds. We
sail around the Cape of Good Hope,
during 2025, supply/demand will be expect average sailing speed to
adding 10% to average sailing
stronger than in our base scenario. remain elevated during 2024 but fall
distances and ship demand.
in 2025.

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