Enel DCF Modelling
Enel DCF Modelling
Operating Model
ENEL
Financial Model
Inputs
Original Financial Statements
Historicals
Color coding
Income statement
Balance sheet
Market information
85,719.0 140,517.0
(47,702.0) (96,896.0)
(19,240.0) (20,228.0)
(5,140.0) (4,570.0)
(1,175.0) (1,278.0)
(8,507.0) (7,447.0)
(1,968.0) (4,685.0)
3,041.0 3,415.0
2,523.0 2,365.0
7,551.0 11,193.0
2,717.0 3,118.0
1,862.0 3,430.0
(1,256.0) (3,414.0)
(6,087.0) (5,880.0)
20.0 290.0
571.0 4.0
5,378.0 8,741.0
(1,620.0) (3,523.0)
3,758.0 5,218.0
99 (2,298.0)
3,857.0 2,920.0
84,572.0 88,521.0
91.0 94.0
18,070.0 17,520.0
13,821.0 13,742.0
11,034.0 10,925.0
704.0 1,281.0
2,772.0 3,970.0
530.0 508.0
5,704.0 8,359.0
3,268.0 2,486.0
140,566.0 147,406.0
3,109.0 4,853.0
16,076.0 16,605.0
121.0 106.0
530.0 561.0
22,791.0 14,830.0
8,645.0 13,753.0
5,002.0 4,314.0
8,858.0 11,041.0
65,132.0 66,063.0
1,242.0 6,149.0
206,940.0 219,618.0
10,167 10,167.0
(36) (47.0)
1,721 2,740.0
17,801 15,797.0
29,653.0 28,657.0
12,689.0 13,425.0
42,342.0 42,082.0
54,500.0 68,191.0
2,724.0 2,202.0
7,197.0 6,055.0
9,259.0 9,542.0
3,339.0 5,895.0
6,214.0 5,747.0
4,645.0 4,246.0
87,878.0 101,878.0
13,306 18,392
4,031 2,835
1,126 1,325
16,959 17,641
712 1,623
24,607 16,141
1,433 1,775
625 853
12,959 11,713
75,758.0 72,298.0
962.0 3,360.0
206,940.0 219,618.0
(30.1) (32.3)
(0.7) (0.7)
(6.9) (8.0)
(37.7) (41.0)
(3.3) (4.9)
- -
(6.4) (6.8)
(9.7) (11.7)
45,417.0 83,508.0
21,052.0 32,833.0
16,957.0 21,335.0
14.0 87.0
1,513.0 2,214.0
241.0 266.0
525.0 274.0
85,719.0 140,517.0
32,603.0 76,335.0
20,242.0 23,032.0
9,172.0 9,167.0
37,399.0 62,152.0
1,428.0 2,209.0
(15,125.0) (32,378.0)
85,719.0 140,517.0
Income statement
Balance sheet
Check - -
Cash flows
85,719.0 140,517.0
24.2% 39.0%
(66,942.0) (117,124.0)
(4,067.0) (5,840.0)
(1,175.0) (1,278.0)
2,523.0 2,365.0
16,058.0 18,640.0
18.7% 13.3%
(8,507.0) (7,447.0)
7,551.0 11,193.0
8.8% 8.0%
4,579.0 6,548.0
(7,343.0) (9,294.0)
571.0 4.0
119.0 (2,008.0)
5,477.0 6,443.0
(1,620.0) (3,523.0)
3,857.0 2,920.0
4.5% 2.1%
3,639.8 3,863.5
217.2 (943.5)
16,076.0 16,605.0
(16,959.0) (17,641.0)
3,109.0 4,853.0
(1,312.0) (1,669.0)
(5,684.0) (5,239.0)
1,593.0 321.0
13,647.0 18,067.0
(12,959.0) (11,713.0)
(8,323.0) (7,380.0)
(10,812.0) (3,796.0)
84,572.0 88,521.0
18,070.0 17,520.0
13,821.0 13,742.0
116,463.0 119,783.0
105,651.0 115,987.0
91.0 94.0
704.0 1,281.0
(2,724.0) (2,202.0)
(1,816.0) (1,311.0)
(567.0) (1,925.0)
5,704.0 8,359.0
(1,377.0) (1,760.0)
280.0 2,789.0
295.0 5,325.0
105,946.0 121,312.0
17,337.0 21,227.0
625.0 853.0
54,500.0 68,191.0
72,462.0 90,271.0
(8,858.0) (11,041.0)
63,604.0 79,230.0
10,167.0 10,167.0
(36.0) (47.0)
1,721.0 2,740.0
17,801.0 15,797.0
29,653.0 28,657.0
12,689.0 13,425.0
42,342.0 42,082.0
105,946.0 121,312.0
- -
7,551.0 11,193.0
(2,233.5) (6,120.3)
5,317.5 5,072.7
8,507.0 7,447.0
13,824.5 12,519.7
(3,621.0) (7,016.0)
(14,805.0) (10,767.0)
(4,601.5) (5,263.3)
613.5 2,597.3
4,579.0 6,548.0
(7,343.0) (9,294.0)
571.0 4.0
119.0 (2,008.0)
12,808.0 17,809.0
78.0 (5,030.0)
6,824.0 5,363.0
(3,872.0) (3,180.0)
2,952.0 2,183.0
0.0 0.0
Operating taxes 2021
Sales forecast
Others forecast
Investment forecast
CAPEX as a % of sales 6.4% 17.3% 7.7% 7.1% 7.1%
Depreciation rate 6.3% 7.7% 6.4% 6.8% 6.8%
Useful life (years) 15.8 12.9 15.6 14.7 14.7
Other current assets / liabilities as a % of sales (7.1%) (4.6%) 0.8% 4.5% (1.6%) (1.6%)
Current contracts (as a % sale) (1.4%) (1.7%) (1.5%) (1.2%) (1.5%) (1.5%)
Non-current contracts (as a % of sale) (7.2%) (9.1%) (6.6%) (3.7%) (6.7%) (6.7%)
Financing forecast
Tax forecast
Value added tax (sales tax) 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Income tax 1 on EBT (IRES) 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Income tax 2 on EBIT (IRAP) 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
3.3%
ENEL
Financial Model
Calculations
Investments Forecasts
Historicals
Investment forecasts
Equity forecast
BS Output Minorities
BS Output Share capital
Debt forecast
Income taxes
GROWTH
Investment Property (8.0%) (11.7%) 3.3% (5.5%) (5.5%)
Equity-Accounted investments (48.8%) (18.2%) 82.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Employee Benefits (21.4%) (8.1%) (19.2%) (16.2%) (16.2%)
Current Financial Derivatives (111.7%) 2,926.7% (27.8%) 929.0% 929.0%
Non-current Financial Derivatives 131.4% (76.1%) 239.5% 98.3% 98.3%
Other non-current Financial Assets (14.1%) 10.6% 46.5% 14.3% 14.3%
Other non-current Assets & Liabilities (4.1%) 42.8% 27.8% 22.2% 22.2%
Assets & Liabilities held for sale 520.4% (53.9%) 896.1% 454.2% 454.2%
Explicit forecast
Output
Output Financial Statements
Historicals Explicit
Income statement
Balance sheet
Cash flows
Investment analysis - WC
Financing analysis
DSCR 17.3x
Liquidity analysis
Profitability analysis
ROCE 5.7%
ROCE decomposition
Effective operating tax rate 33.7%
EBIT margin 12.9%
Asset turnover 67.2%
ROCE 5.7%
Check -
ROE 8.1%
Effective interest rate (with average ND) 5.0%
0.9x 0.9x
0.8x 0.8x
Valuation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Calculation
Kel 10.3%
Keu 3.9%
D / (D+E) 68.2%
E / (D+E) 31.8%
WACC 11.2%
Damodaran Spread Table
> <= to Rating Spread
-100000 0.20 D2/D 20%
0.2 0.65 C2/C 17.50%
0.65 0.80 Ca2/CC 15.78%
0.8 1.25 Caa/CCC 11.57%
1.25 1.50 B3/B- 7.37%
1.5 1.75 B2/B 5.26%
1.75 2.00 B1/B+ 4.55%
2 2.25 Ba2/BB 3.13%
2.25 2.50 Ba1/BB+ 2.42%
2.5 3.00 Baa2/BBB 2%
3 4.25 A3/A- 1.62%
4.25 5.50 A2/A 1.42%
5.5 6.50 A1/A+ 1.23%
6.5 8.50 Aa2/AA 0.85%
8.5 100000.00 Aaa/AAA 0.69%
Terminal Cash Flows
Fundamental Bankers' normalized
growth best practice
Terminal FCFO 2026 TV 2028 TV 2028
Fundamental Simple
growth FCFE
Terminal FCFE 2021 TV 2022 TV 2022
Assumptions
Terminal growth rate 3.3%
2021 noncash ROE = Terminal noncash ROE (5.5%)
Implied terminal equity reinvestment rate (60.1%)
Assumptions
Terminal growth rate 3.3%
Cost of debt 11.7%
Interest income rate 65.8%
Income tax rate (with interest deductibility) 24.0%
Simple
FCFO
TV 2028
2,146.9
DCF
Historicals
Assumptions
Year
FCFO
Discount factor (WACC)
Present value of FCFO
Terminal value
PV of FCFO
PV of TV
Enterprise value
(Net debt)
Surplus assets, associates and (pensions)
(Minorities)
Equity value
Number of shares (NOSH) (m)
Equity value per share (€)
Implied EV / EBITDA 2022A multiple
FCFO
Discount factor (kEU)
Present value of FCFO
Terminal value
PV of FCFO
PV of TV
Unlevered value
Enterprise value
(Net debt)
Surplus assets, associates and (pensions)
(Minorities)
Equity value
Number of shares (NOSH) (m)
Equity value per share (€)
Implied EV / EBITDA 2022A multiple
Noncash FCFE
Discount factor (kEL)
Present value of FCFE
Terminal value
PV of FCFE
PV of TV
Gross debt
Enterprise value
Implied EV / EBITDA 2022A multiple
Historicals Explicit forecast TV
0 1 2 3 4
#DIV/0!
(79,230.0)
5,325.0
(13,425.0)
#DIV/0!
10,166.7
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
208.6
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(79,230.0)
5,325.0
(13,425.0)
#DIV/0!
10,166.7
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
8,844.0
#REF!
#REF!
11,041.0
1,281.0
(13,425.0)
#REF!
10,166.7
#REF!
90,271.0
#REF!
#REF!
Multiples valuation
Actual multiples date 31/12/2022
Forward +1 multiples date 31/12/2023
EBIT 2023 EBITDA 2022 EBITDA 2022 EBITDA 2023 EBITDA 2023 Net income Net income Net income
Forward Actual Actual Forward Forward 2022 Actual 2022 Actual 2023 Forward
18,640.0 18,640.0 18,640.0 - - 2,920.0 2,920.0 11,832.2
10.8x 7.0x 6.8x 6.9x 6.9x 14.3x 16.4x 12.9x
200,423.5 129,904.0 125,939.6 0.0 0.0 41,876.6 48,020.8 152,330.8
P/E F
Median
Net income
2023 Forward
11,832.2
11.1x
131,551.4
(13,425.0)
144,976.4