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Enel DCF Modelling

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
126 views

Enel DCF Modelling

Uploaded by

edovillant
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Enel SpA

Operating Model
ENEL
Financial Model

Inputs
Original Financial Statements
Historicals

(EUR m) Driver Driver 2019 2020

Color coding

Hardcoded value Blue


Calculation Black
Assumption / driver
Historical financial recall
Assumption / driver for the steady state

Income statement

Revenue 80,327.0 64,985.0


Electricity, gas and fuel purchases (38,082.0) (25,049.0)
Services and other materials (18,836.0) (18,298.0)
Personnel (4,634.0) (4,793.0)
Net impairment losses/(Reversals) of trade receivables and other receivables (1,144.0) (1,285.0)
Depreciation, amortization and other impairment losses (9,682.0) (7,163.0)
Other operating expenses (2,693.0) (2,202.0)
Capitalized costs 2,355.0 2,385.0
Net income/expenses from commodity derivatives (733.0) (212.0)
Operating profit 6,878.0 8,368.0

Financial income from derivatives 1,484.0 1,315.0


Other financial income 1,637.0 2,763.0
Financial expense from derivatives (1,142.0) (2,256.0)
Other financial expense (4,518.0) (4,485.0)
Net income/(expense) from hyperinflation 95.0 57.0
Share of income/(losses) of equity investments accounted for using the equity method (122.0) (299.0)
Income before taxes 4,312.0 5,463.0

Income taxes (836.0) (1,841.0)


Net income from continuing operations 3,476.0 3,622.0
Net income from discontinued operations 0.0 0.0
Net income for the year (shareholders of the Parent Company and non-controlling 3,476.0 3,622.0

Balance sheet

Property, plant and equipment 79,809.0 78,718.0


Investment property 112.0 103.0
Intangible assets 19,089.0 17,668.0
Goodwill 14,241.0 13,779.0
Deferred tax assets 9,112.0 8,578.0
Equity investments accounted for using the equity method 1,682.0 861.0
Non-current derivative financial assets 1,383.0 1,236.0
Non-current contract assets 487.0 304.0
Other non-current financial assets 6,006.0 5,159.0
Other non-current assets 2,701.0 2,494.0
Total non-current assets 134,622.0 128,900.0

Inventories 2,531.0 2,401.0


Trade receivables 13,083.0 12,046.0
Current contract assets 166.0 176.0
Tax receivables 409.0 446.0
Current derivative financial assets 4,065.0 3,471.0
Other current financial assets 4,305.0 5,113.0
Other current assets 3,115.0 3,578.0
Cash and cash equivalents 9,029.0 5,906.0
Total current assets 36,703.0 33,137.0

Non-current assets for sale 101.0 1,416.0

Total assets 171,426.0 163,453.0

Share capital 10,167.0 10,167.0


Reserve treasury shares (1.0) (3.0)
Other reserves 1,130.0 (39.0)
Retained earnings (losses carried forward) 19,081.0 18,200.0
Group's shareholders' equity 30,377.0 28,325.0
Non-controlling interests 16,561.0 14,032.0
Total shareholders' equity 46,938.0 42,357.0

Long-term borrowings 54,174.0 49,519.0


Post-employment and other employee benefits 3,771.0 2,964.0
Provisions for risks and charges - non current 5,324.0 5,774.0
Deferred tax liabilities 8,314.0 7,797.0
Non-current derivative financial liabilities 2,407.0 3,606.0
Non-current contract liabilities 6,301.0 6,191.0
Other non-current liabilities 3,706.0 3,458.0
Total non-current liabilities 83,997.0 79,309.0

Short-term borrowings 3,917.0 6,345.0


Current portion of long-term borrowings 3,409.0 3,168.0
Provisions for risks and charges - current 1,196.0 1,057.0
Trade payables 12,960.0 12,859.0
Income tax payable 209.0 471.0
Derivatives 3,554.0 3,531.0
Current contract liabilities 1,328.0 1,275.0
Other current financial liabilities 754.0 622.0
Other current liabilities 13,161.0 11,651.0
Total current liabilities 40,488.0 40,979.0

Liabilities held for sale 3.0 808.0

Total liabilities and equity 171,426.0 163,453.0

Information from the notes to financial statements

Depreciation included into OPEX


COGS (28.1) (25.2)
Advertisement (0.3) (0.5)
SGAs (5.8) (6.5)
Total D&A (34.2) (32.2)

Amortization included into OPEX


COGS (0.9) (2.4)
Advertisement - -
SGAs (4.5) (4.8)
Total D&A (5.4) (7.2)

Sales breakdown by Business Lines & Regions


Italy 41,779.0 31,267.0
Iberia 19,054.0 17,174.0
Latin America 16,793.0 13,817.0
Rest of Europe 2,400.0 2,085.0
North America 1,469.0 1,367.0
Africa, Asia & Oceania 159.0 153.0
Other (1,327.0) (878.0)
80,327.0 64,985.0
Conventional Generation & Global Trading 32,012.0 20,804.0
Infrastructure & Networks 21,789.0 19,342.0
EGP 7,717.0 7,692.0
Retail 32,599.0 29,508.0
Enel X 1,130.0 1,121.0
Services & Others (14,920.0) (13,482.0)
80,327.0 64,985.0

Market information

Dividend related to the year 2,846.2 3,334.8


WA shares outstanding - Basic (m) 10,165.0 10,167.0
WA shares outstanding - Fully diluted (m) 10,166.7 10,166.7
Share price at year end 5.2 7.2
Market capitalization 52,460.1 73,403.4
Number of employees 68253 66717
Expected DPS 0.3 0.3
Historicals Explicit forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Notes

85,719.0 140,517.0
(47,702.0) (96,896.0)
(19,240.0) (20,228.0)
(5,140.0) (4,570.0)
(1,175.0) (1,278.0)
(8,507.0) (7,447.0)
(1,968.0) (4,685.0)
3,041.0 3,415.0
2,523.0 2,365.0
7,551.0 11,193.0

2,717.0 3,118.0
1,862.0 3,430.0
(1,256.0) (3,414.0)
(6,087.0) (5,880.0)
20.0 290.0
571.0 4.0
5,378.0 8,741.0

(1,620.0) (3,523.0)
3,758.0 5,218.0
99 (2,298.0)
3,857.0 2,920.0

84,572.0 88,521.0
91.0 94.0
18,070.0 17,520.0
13,821.0 13,742.0
11,034.0 10,925.0
704.0 1,281.0
2,772.0 3,970.0
530.0 508.0
5,704.0 8,359.0
3,268.0 2,486.0
140,566.0 147,406.0

3,109.0 4,853.0
16,076.0 16,605.0
121.0 106.0
530.0 561.0
22,791.0 14,830.0
8,645.0 13,753.0
5,002.0 4,314.0
8,858.0 11,041.0
65,132.0 66,063.0

1,242.0 6,149.0

206,940.0 219,618.0

10,167 10,167.0
(36) (47.0)
1,721 2,740.0
17,801 15,797.0
29,653.0 28,657.0
12,689.0 13,425.0
42,342.0 42,082.0

54,500.0 68,191.0
2,724.0 2,202.0
7,197.0 6,055.0
9,259.0 9,542.0
3,339.0 5,895.0
6,214.0 5,747.0
4,645.0 4,246.0
87,878.0 101,878.0

13,306 18,392
4,031 2,835
1,126 1,325
16,959 17,641
712 1,623
24,607 16,141
1,433 1,775
625 853
12,959 11,713
75,758.0 72,298.0

962.0 3,360.0

206,940.0 219,618.0

(30.1) (32.3)
(0.7) (0.7)
(6.9) (8.0)
(37.7) (41.0)

(3.3) (4.9)
- -
(6.4) (6.8)
(9.7) (11.7)

45,417.0 83,508.0
21,052.0 32,833.0
16,957.0 21,335.0
14.0 87.0
1,513.0 2,214.0
241.0 266.0
525.0 274.0
85,719.0 140,517.0
32,603.0 76,335.0
20,242.0 23,032.0
9,172.0 9,167.0
37,399.0 62,152.0
1,428.0 2,209.0
(15,125.0) (32,378.0)
85,719.0 140,517.0

3,639.8 3,863.5 4,371.8 4,371.8 4,371.8 0.0 0.0


10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0
10,166.7 10,166.7
6.8 6.2
68,828.4 62,525.1
66279 65124
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Restated Financial Statements
Historicals

(EUR m) Driver 2019 2020

Income statement

Sales 80,327.0 64,985.0


Growth (23.6%)

Cost of goods sold (COGS) (56,918.0) (43,347.0)


Selling, general & adminsitrative expenses (SGAs) (4,972.0) (4,610.0)
Receivables Impairment (1,144.0) (1,285.0)
Net income/expenses from commodity derivatives (733.0) (212.0)
EBITDA 16,560.0 15,531.0
Margin 20.6% 23.9%

Depreciation & Amortization (9,682.0) (7,163.0)


EBIT 6,878.0 8,368.0
Margin 8.6% 12.9%

Interest income 3,121.0 4,078.0


Interest expenses (5,660.0) (6,741.0)
Income from associates (122.0) (299.0)
Except. items 95.0 57.0
EBT 4,312.0 5,463.0

Income taxes (836.0) (1,841.0)


Net income 3,476.0 3,622.0
Margin 4.3% 5.6%

Dividend distribution 2,846.2 3,334.8


Retained portion 629.8 287.2

Balance sheet

Trade receivables 13,083.0 12,046.0


Trade payables (12,960.0) (12,859.0)
Inventories 2,531.0 2,401.0
Current Contracts (1,162.0) (1,099.0)
Non-current Contracts (5,814.0) (5,887.0)
Deferred Taxes 998.0 756.0
Other Current Assets 7,420.0 8,691.0
Other Current Liabilities (13,161.0) (11,651.0)
Risk & charges provisions (6,520.0) (6,831.0)
Noncash working capital (15,585.0) (14,433.0)

Property, Plant, and Equipment 79,809.0 78,718.0


Intangible Assets 19,089.0 17,668.0
Goodwill 14,241.0 13,779.0
Fixed assets 113,139.0 110,165.0

Core capital employed 97,554.0 95,732.0

Investment Property 112.0 103.0


Equity-Accounted investments 1,682.0 861.0
Employee Benefits (3,771.0) (2,964.0)
Current Financial Derivatives 511.0 (60.0)
Non-current Financial Derivatives (1,024.0) (2,370.0)
Other non-current Financial Assets 6,006.0 5,159.0
Other non-current Assets & Liabilities (1,005.0) (964.0)
Assets & Liabilities held for sale 98.0 608.0
Surplus assets and other liabilities 2,609.0 373.0
Net Capital Employed 100,163.0 96,105.0

ST financial debt 7,326.0 9,513.0


Other financial liabilities (ST+LT) 754.0 622.0
Long Term borrowings 54,174.0 49,519.0
Gross financial debt 62,254.0 59,654.0
Excess cash & equivalents (9,029.0) (5,906.0)
Net debt 53,225.0 53,748.0

Share capital 10,167.0 10,167.0


Treasury Share reserve (1.0) (3.0)
Other reserve 1,130.0 (39.0)
Retained earnings 19,081.0 18,200.0
Group equity 30,377.0 28,325.0
Minorities 16,561.0 14,032.0
Total equity 46,938.0 42,357.0

Total funds invested 100,163.0 96,105.0

Check - -

Cash flows

EBIT 6,878.0 8,368.0


(Operational taxes) (1,333.5) (2,820.0)
NOPAT 5,544.5 5,548.0
Depreciation 9,682.0 7,163.0
Gross cash flows 15,226.5 12,711.0

Change in noncash WC (1,152.0)


CAPEX (4,189.0)
FCFO 7,370.0

Tax shields 979.0


Interest income 4,078.0
Interest expenses (6,741.0)
Income from associates (299.0)
Except. items 57.0
Change in gross debt (2,600.0)
Change in surplus assets and other liabilities 2,236.0
FCFE 5,080.0

Change in Equity (8,203.0)

Change in cash (3,123.0)


Check 0.0
Historicals Explicit forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Notes

85,719.0 140,517.0
24.2% 39.0%

(66,942.0) (117,124.0)
(4,067.0) (5,840.0)
(1,175.0) (1,278.0)
2,523.0 2,365.0
16,058.0 18,640.0
18.7% 13.3%

(8,507.0) (7,447.0)
7,551.0 11,193.0
8.8% 8.0%

4,579.0 6,548.0
(7,343.0) (9,294.0)
571.0 4.0
119.0 (2,008.0)
5,477.0 6,443.0

(1,620.0) (3,523.0)
3,857.0 2,920.0
4.5% 2.1%

3,639.8 3,863.5
217.2 (943.5)

16,076.0 16,605.0
(16,959.0) (17,641.0)
3,109.0 4,853.0
(1,312.0) (1,669.0)
(5,684.0) (5,239.0)
1,593.0 321.0
13,647.0 18,067.0
(12,959.0) (11,713.0)
(8,323.0) (7,380.0)
(10,812.0) (3,796.0)

84,572.0 88,521.0
18,070.0 17,520.0
13,821.0 13,742.0
116,463.0 119,783.0

105,651.0 115,987.0

91.0 94.0
704.0 1,281.0
(2,724.0) (2,202.0)
(1,816.0) (1,311.0)
(567.0) (1,925.0)
5,704.0 8,359.0
(1,377.0) (1,760.0)
280.0 2,789.0
295.0 5,325.0
105,946.0 121,312.0

17,337.0 21,227.0
625.0 853.0
54,500.0 68,191.0
72,462.0 90,271.0
(8,858.0) (11,041.0)
63,604.0 79,230.0

10,167.0 10,167.0
(36.0) (47.0)
1,721.0 2,740.0
17,801.0 15,797.0
29,653.0 28,657.0
12,689.0 13,425.0
42,342.0 42,082.0

105,946.0 121,312.0

- -

7,551.0 11,193.0
(2,233.5) (6,120.3)
5,317.5 5,072.7
8,507.0 7,447.0
13,824.5 12,519.7

(3,621.0) (7,016.0)
(14,805.0) (10,767.0)
(4,601.5) (5,263.3)

613.5 2,597.3
4,579.0 6,548.0
(7,343.0) (9,294.0)
571.0 4.0
119.0 (2,008.0)
12,808.0 17,809.0
78.0 (5,030.0)
6,824.0 5,363.0

(3,872.0) (3,180.0)

2,952.0 2,183.0
0.0 0.0
Operating taxes 2021

Effective tax rate 29.60%


Operating taxes -2,233.50
Tax shield 613.5
NOPLAT 5,317.50
Assumptions
Historicals Explicit forecast

(EUR m) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Sales forecast

Global inflation forecast Source: Statista (IMF) 6.52% 4.13%

Business lines revenues


Conventional Generation & Global Trading 32,012.0 20,804.0 32,603.0 76,335.0 72,835.0 69,495.5
Infrastructure & Networks 21,789.0 19,342.0 20,242.0 23,032.0 21,976.0 20,968.4
EGP 7,717.0 7,692.0 9,172.0 9,167.0 9,743.4 10,356.0
Retail 32,599.0 29,508.0 37,399.0 62,152.0 59,764.8 57,469.2
Enel X 1,130.0 1,121.0 1,428.0 2,209.0 2,124.2 2,042.6
Services & Other (14,920.0) (13,482.0) (15,125.0) (32,378.0) (33,062.1) (33,760.7)

Business lines growth Source: Enel's Investors Relations, own assumptions


Conventional Generation & Global Trading (35.0%) 56.7% 134.1% (4.6%) (4.6%)
Infrastructure & Networks (11.2%) 4.7% 13.8% (4.6%) (4.6%)
EGP (0.3%) 19.2% (0.1%) 6.3% 6.3%
Retail (9.5%) 26.7% 66.2% (3.8%) (3.8%)
Enel X (0.8%) 27.4% 54.7% (3.8%) (3.8%)
Services & Other 9.6% (12.2%) (114.1%) (2.1%) (2.1%)

Operating expenses forecast

OPEX as a % of sales 79.4% 76.1% 81.3% 86.7% 80.9% 80.9%


COGS as % of sales 70.86% 66.70% 78.09% 83.35% 74.8% 74.8%
Selling, General & Administrative as a % of sales 6.19% 7.09% 4.74% 4.16% 5.5% 5.5%
Receivables Impairment as a % of sales 1.42% 1.98% 1.37% 0.91% 1.4% 1.4%
Net income/expenses from commodity derivatives -733.00 -212.00 2,523.00 2,365.00 985.75 985.75
Workforce Growth Rate 2.30% 0.66% 1.77% 1.6% 1.6%

Others forecast

Investment forecast
CAPEX as a % of sales 6.4% 17.3% 7.7% 7.1% 7.1%
Depreciation rate 6.3% 7.7% 6.4% 6.8% 6.8%
Useful life (years) 15.8 12.9 15.6 14.7 14.7

Equity-Accounted investments 1,682.0 861.0 704.0 1,281.0 1,132.00 1,132.00

Days receivables (Sales) 48.7 55.5 56.1 35.4 48.9 48.9


Days payables (COGS) 68.1 88.8 75.8 45.1 69.4 69.4
Days inventory (Sales) 11.5 13.5 13.2 12.6 12.7 12.7

Other current assets / liabilities as a % of sales (7.1%) (4.6%) 0.8% 4.5% (1.6%) (1.6%)
Current contracts (as a % sale) (1.4%) (1.7%) (1.5%) (1.2%) (1.5%) (1.5%)
Non-current contracts (as a % of sale) (7.2%) (9.1%) (6.6%) (3.7%) (6.7%) (6.7%)

Financing forecast

Payout ratio 81.9% 92.1% 94.4% 132.3% 100.2% 100.2%


Dividends per share 0.28 0.328 0.358 0.38 0.4 0.4

ST debt as a % of sales 9.1% 14.6% 20.2% 15.1% 13.0% 13.0%


Effective interest rate for debt 11.1% 11.1% 11.4% 11.2% 11.2%
Effective interest rate for cash / overdraft 54.6% 62.0% 65.8% 65.8% 65.8%

Tax forecast

Value added tax (sales tax) 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Income tax 1 on EBT (IRES) 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Income tax 2 on EBIT (IRAP) 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%

Steady state assumptions

Terminal growth rate (2027 onwards)


Explicit forecast

2025 2026 2027 Notes

3.56% 3.38% 3.33%

66,309.1 63,268.8 60,367.9


20,007.0 19,089.6 18,214.4
11,007.1 11,699.2 12,434.7
55,261.9 53,139.3 51,098.2
1,964.1 1,888.7 1,816.1
(34,474.0) (35,202.4) (35,946.2)

(4.6%) (4.6%) (4.6%)


(4.6%) (4.6%) (4.6%)
6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
(3.8%) (3.8%) (3.8%)
(3.8%) (3.8%) (3.8%)
(2.1%) (2.1%) (2.1%) (2.1%)

80.9% 80.9% 80.9%


74.8% 74.8% 74.8%
5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
985.75 985.75 985.75
1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
14.7 14.7 14.7

1,132.00 1,132.00 1,132.00

48.9 48.9 48.9


69.4 69.4 69.4
12.7 12.7 12.7

(1.6%) (1.6%) (1.6%)


(1.5%) (1.5%) (1.5%)
(6.7%) (6.7%) (6.7%)

100.2% 100.2% 100.2%


0.4 0.4 0.4

13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 10


11.2% 11.2% 11.2%
65.8% 65.8% 65.8%

22.0% 22.0% 22.0%


24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
3.9% 3.9% 3.9%

3.3%
ENEL
Financial Model

Calculations
Investments Forecasts
Historicals

(EUR m) 2019 2020

Working capital forecast

BS Output Trade receivables


BS Output Trade payables
BS Output Inventory
BS Output Other current assets & liabilities

BS Output Deferred taxes


BS Output Long term provisions

Investment forecasts

Evolution of fixed assets


BOP Fixed Assets
+ CAPEX (Intangible & tangible)
- Depreciation & Amortization
BS Output = EOP Fixed Assets

Existing assets 2022 119,783.0


CAPEX Year 1905 2023 -
CAPEX Year 1905 2024 -
CAPEX Year 1905 2025 -
CAPEX Year 1905 2026 -
CAPEX Year 1905 2027 -
IS Output Total depreciation
Historicals Explicit forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Notes

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

321.0 321.0 321.0 321.0 321.0 321.0


(7,380.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0)

119,783.0 112,336.0 104,889.0 97,442.0 89,995.0


- - - - -
(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)
119,783.0 112,336.0 104,889.0 97,442.0 89,995.0 82,548.0

(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)


- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)
Financing Forecasts
Historicals

(EUR m) 2019 2020

Equity forecast

Output Recall Total net income


Dividends

Evolution of retained earnings


BOP retained earnings
Linking Cell + Total net income
- Dividends
BS Output EOP retained earnings

BS Output Minorities
BS Output Share capital

Debt forecast

BS Output ST financial debt


BS Output Bank loans
BS Output Bonds and securities

IS Output Interest expenses


Gross financial debt

Cash balance forecast

Cash / bank overdraft evolution


BOP cash
Output Recall + change in cash
Linking Cell = EOP cash / overdraft

IS Output Interest inc. (exp.) on cash (overdraft)


Historicals Explicit forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Notes

11,832.2 11,138.7 8,170.1 5,794.0 3,967.5


11,850.8 11,156.3 8,182.9 5,803.1 3,973.7

15,797.0 15,778.4 15,760.8 15,747.9 15,738.8


11,832.2 11,138.7 8,170.1 5,794.0 3,967.5
(11,850.8) (11,156.3) (8,182.9) (5,803.1) (3,973.7)
15,797.0 15,778.4 15,760.8 15,747.9 15,738.8 15,732.6

13,425.0 13,425.0 13,425.0 13,425.0 13,425.0 13,425.0


10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


853.0 853.0 853.0 853.0 853.0 853.0
68,191.0 68,191.0 68,191.0 68,193.8 68,198.5 68,198.5

(8,921.0) (7,732.4) (7,732.5) (7,732.9) (7,733.2)


90,271.0 69,044.0 69,044.0 69,046.8 69,051.5 69,051.5

11,041.0 17,866.6 14,666.9 12,539.9 11,416.3


6,825.6 (3,199.7) (2,127.0) (1,123.6) (190.5)
11,041.0 17,866.6 14,666.9 12,539.9 11,416.3 11,225.8

9,512.4 10,705.5 8,952.7 7,883.1 7,450.7


Tax and Other Items Forecasts
Historicals Explicit forecast

(EUR m) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Other balance sheet items forecast

BS Output Employee Benefits (2,202.0) (2,236.8) (2,272.1)


Workforce growth rate 1.6% 1.6%

BS Output Equity-Accounted Investments 1,281.0 1,132.0 1,132.0


BS Output Other non-operational assets 1,281.0 1,281.0 1,281.0

IS Output Income from associates 0.0 0.0


IS Output Except. items 0.0 0.0

Income taxes

Output Recall Income before taxes 16,431.1 15,390.1


Output Recall EBIT (7,447.0) (7,447.0)

Income tax 1 on EBT (IRES) (3,943.5) (3,693.6)


Income tax 2 on EBIT (IRAP) 290.4 290.4
IS Output Income taxes (3,653.0) (3,403.2)

Investment Property 112.0 103.0 91.0 94.0 88.9 84.0


Equity-Accounted investments 1,682.0 861.0 704.0 1,281.0 1,344.7 1,411.5
Employee Benefits (3,771.0) (2,964.0) (2,724.0) (2,202.0) (1,844.8) (1,545.6)
Current Financial Derivatives 511.0 (60.0) (1,816.0) (1,311.0) (669.0) (669.0)
Non-current Financial Derivatives (1,024.0) (2,370.0) (567.0) (1,925.0) (1,471.5) (1,471.5)
Other non-current Financial Assets 6,006.0 5,159.0 5,704.0 8,359.0 9,557.3 10,927.5
Other non-current Assets & Liabilities (1,005.0) (964.0) (1,377.0) (1,760.0) (2,150.6) (2,627.8)
Assets & Liabilities held for sale 98.0 608.0 280.0 2,789.0 943.8 943.8

GROWTH
Investment Property (8.0%) (11.7%) 3.3% (5.5%) (5.5%)
Equity-Accounted investments (48.8%) (18.2%) 82.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Employee Benefits (21.4%) (8.1%) (19.2%) (16.2%) (16.2%)
Current Financial Derivatives (111.7%) 2,926.7% (27.8%) 929.0% 929.0%
Non-current Financial Derivatives 131.4% (76.1%) 239.5% 98.3% 98.3%
Other non-current Financial Assets (14.1%) 10.6% 46.5% 14.3% 14.3%
Other non-current Assets & Liabilities (4.1%) 42.8% 27.8% 22.2% 22.2%
Assets & Liabilities held for sale 520.4% (53.9%) 896.1% 454.2% 454.2%
Explicit forecast

2025 2026 2027 Notes

(2,308.0) (2,344.4) (2,381.4)


1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

1,132.0 1,132.0 1,132.0


1,281.0 1,281.0 1,281.0

0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0

11,362.3 8,119.7 5,605.1


(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)

(2,727.0) (1,948.7) (1,345.2)


290.4 290.4 290.4
(2,436.5) (1,658.3) (1,054.8)

79.4 75.1 71.0


1,481.7 1,555.4 1,632.7
(1,294.9) (1,084.9) (908.9)
(669.0) (669.0) (669.0)
(1,471.5) (1,471.5) (1,471.5)
12,494.0 14,285.2 16,333.1
(3,211.0) (3,923.6) (4,794.4)
943.8 943.8 943.8

(5.5%) (5.5%) (5.5%)


5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
(16.2%) (16.2%) (16.2%)
929.0% 929.0% 929.0% NO
98.3% 98.3% 98.3% NO
14.3% 14.3% 14.3%
22.2% 22.2% 22.2%
454.2% 454.2% 454.2% NO
ENEL
Financial Model

Output
Output Financial Statements
Historicals Explicit

(EUR m) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Income statement

Sales 80,327.0 64,985.0 85,719.0 140,517.0 0.0


Growth (19.1%) 31.9% 63.9% (100.0%)

Cost of goods sold (COGS) (56,918.0) (43,347.0) (66,942.0) (117,124.0) 0.0


Selling, general & adminsitrative expenses (S (4,972.0) (4,610.0) (4,067.0) (5,840.0) 0.0
Receivables Impairment (1,144.0) (1,285.0) (1,175.0) (1,278.0) 0.0
Net income/expenses from commodity derivati (733.0) (212.0) 2,523.0 2,365.0 0.0
EBITDA 16,560.0 15,531.0 16,058.0 18,640.0 0.0
Margin 20.6% 23.9% 18.7% 13.3% #DIV/0!

Depreciation & Amortization (9,682.0) (7,163.0) (8,507.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)


EBIT 6,878.0 8,368.0 7,551.0 11,193.0 (7,447.0)
Margin 8.6% 12.9% 8.8% 8.0% #DIV/0!

Interest income 3,121.0 4,078.0 4,579.0 6,548.0 9,512.4


Interest expenses (5,660.0) (6,741.0) (7,343.0) (9,294.0) (8,921.0)
Income from associates (122.0) (299.0) 571.0 4.0 0.0
Except. items 95.0 57.0 119.0 (2,008.0) 0.0
EBT 4,312.0 5,463.0 5,477.0 6,443.0 (6,855.6)

Income taxes (836.0) (1,841.0) (1,620.0) (3,523.0) (4,599.0)


Net income 3,476.0 3,622.0 3,857.0 2,920.0 (11,454.6)
Margin 4.3% 5.6% 4.5% 2.1% #DIV/0!

Dividend distribution 2,846.2 3,334.8 3,639.8 3,863.5 11,850.8


Retained portion 629.8 287.2 217.2 (943.5) (23,305.4)

Balance sheet

Trade receivables 13,083.0 12,046.0 16,076.0 16,605.0 0.0


Trade payables (12,960.0) (12,859.0) (16,959.0) (17,641.0) 0.0
Inventories 2,531.0 2,401.0 3,109.0 4,853.0 0.0
Current Contracts (1,162.0) (1,099.0) (1,312.0) (1,669.0) 0.0
Non-current Contracts (5,814.0) (5,887.0) (5,684.0) (5,239.0) 0.0
Deferred Taxes 998.0 756.0 1,593.0 321.0 321.0
Other Current Assets & Liabilities (5,741.0) (2,960.0) 688.0 6,354.0 0.0
Risk & charges provisions (6,520.0) (6,831.0) (8,323.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0)
Noncash working capital (15,585.0) (14,433.0) (10,812.0) (3,796.0) (7,059.0)

Propery, Plant and Equipment 79,809.0 78,718.0 84,572.0 88,521.0 83,017.6


Tangible assets 19,089.0 17,668.0 18,070.0 17,520.0 16,430.8
Goodwill and trademarks 14,241.0 13,779.0 13,821.0 13,742.0 12,887.6
Fixed assets 113,139.0 110,165.0 116,463.0 119,783.0 112,336.0

Core capital employed 97,554.0 95,732.0 105,651.0 115,987.0 105,277.0

Investment Property 112.0 103.0 91.0 94.0 88.9


Equity-Accounted investments 1,682.0 861.0 704.0 1,281.0 1,344.7
Employee Benefits (3,771.0) (2,964.0) (2,724.0) (2,202.0) (1,844.8)
Current Financial Derivatives 511.0 (60.0) (1,816.0) (1,311.0) (669.0)
Non-current Financial Derivatives (1,024.0) (2,370.0) (567.0) (1,925.0) (1,471.5)
Other non-current Financial Assets 6,006.0 5,159.0 5,704.0 8,359.0 9,557.3
Other non-current Assets & Liabilities (1,005.0) (964.0) (1,377.0) (1,760.0) (2,150.6)
Assets & Liabilities held for sale 98.0 608.0 280.0 2,789.0 943.8
Surplus assets and other liabilities 2,609.0 373.0 295.0 5,325.0 5,798.7
Net capital employed 100,163.0 96,105.0 105,946.0 121,312.0 111,075.7

ST financial debt 7,326.0 9,513.0 17,337.0 21,227.0 0.0


Bank loans 754.0 622.0 625.0 853.0 853.0
Bonds and securities 54,174.0 49,519.0 54,500.0 68,191.0 68,191.0
Gross financial debt 62,254.0 59,654.0 72,462.0 90,271.0 69,044.0
Excess cash & equivalents (9,029.0) (5,906.0) (8,858.0) (11,041.0) (17,866.6)
Net debt 53,225.0 53,748.0 63,604.0 79,230.0 51,177.4

Share capital 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0


Treasury Share reserve (1.0) (3.0) (36.0) (47.0) (60.5)
Other reserve 1,130.0 (39.0) 1,721.0 2,740.0 2,740.0
Retained earnings 19,081.0 18,200.0 17,801.0 15,797.0 15,778.4
Group equity 30,377.0 28,325.0 29,653.0 28,657.0 28,624.9
Minorities 16,561.0 14,032.0 12,689.0 13,425.0 13,425.0
Total equity 46,938.0 42,357.0 42,342.0 42,082.0 42,049.9

Total funds invested 100,163.0 96,105.0 105,946.0 121,312.0 93,227.3

Check 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (17,848.4)

Cash flows

EBIT 8,368.0 7,551.0 11,193.0 (7,447.0)


(Operational taxes) (2,820.0) (2,233.5) (6,120.3) 2,077.7
NOPAT 5,548.0 5,317.5 5,072.7 (5,369.3)
Depreciation&Amortization 7,163.0 8,507.0 7,447.0 7,447.0
Gross cash flows 12,711.0 13,824.5 12,519.7 2,077.7

Change in noncash WC (1,152.0) (3,621.0) (7,016.0) 3,263.0


CAPEX (4,189.0) (14,805.0) (10,767.0) 0.0
FCFO 7,370.0 (4,601.5) (5,263.3) 5,340.7

Tax shields 979.0 613.5 2,597.3 (6,676.7)


Interest income 4,078.0 4,579.0 6,548.0 9,512.4
Interest expenses (6,741.0) (7,343.0) (9,294.0) (8,921.0)
Income from associates (299.0) 571.0 4.0 0.0
Except. items 57.0 119.0 (2,008.0) 0.0
Change in gross debt (2,600.0) 12,808.0 17,809.0 (21,227.0)
Change in surplus assets and other liabilities 2,236.0 78.0 (5,030.0) (473.7)
FCFE 5,080.0 6,824.0 5,363.0 (22,445.3)

Dividends (3,334.8) (3,639.8) (3,863.5) (11,850.8)


Other movements in group equity (2,339.2) 1,110.8 (52.5) 23,273.3
Change in minorities (2,529.0) (1,343.0) 736.0 0.0

Change in cash (3,123.0) 2,952.0 2,183.0 (11,022.8)


Check 0.0 0.0 0.0 (17,848.4)
Explicit forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 Notes

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)


(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

10,705.5 8,952.7 7,883.1 7,450.7


(7,732.4) (7,732.5) (7,732.9) (7,733.2)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(4,473.8) (6,226.8) (7,296.9) (7,729.5)

(4,251.4) (3,192.3) (2,325.7) (1,637.6)


(8,725.3) (9,419.1) (9,622.6) (9,367.2)
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

11,156.3 8,182.9 5,803.1 3,973.7


(19,881.5) (17,602.0) (15,425.7) (13,340.9)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
321.0 321.0 321.0 321.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(7,380.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0) (7,380.0)
(7,059.0) (7,059.0) (7,059.0) (7,059.0)

77,856.3 73,015.9 68,476.5 64,219.2


15,409.3 14,451.2 13,552.8 12,710.2
12,086.4 11,335.0 10,630.3 9,969.4
104,889.0 97,442.0 89,995.0 82,548.0

97,830.0 90,383.0 82,936.0 75,489.0

84.0 79.4 75.1 71.0


1,411.5 1,481.7 1,555.4 1,632.7
(1,545.6) (1,294.9) (1,084.9) (908.9)
(669.0) (669.0) (669.0) (669.0)
(1,471.5) (1,471.5) (1,471.5) (1,471.5)
10,927.5 12,494.0 14,285.2 16,333.1
(2,627.8) (3,211.0) (3,923.6) (4,794.4)
943.8 943.8 943.8 943.8
7,052.8 8,352.5 9,710.4 11,136.7
104,882.8 98,735.5 92,646.4 86,625.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


853.0 853.0 853.0 853.0
68,191.0 68,193.8 68,198.5 68,198.5
69,044.0 69,046.8 69,051.5 69,051.5
(14,666.9) (12,539.9) (11,416.3) (11,225.8)
54,377.1 56,506.9 57,635.2 57,825.7

10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0 10,167.0


(77.1) (97.7) (122.8) (153.4)
2,740.0 2,740.0 2,740.0 2,740.0
15,760.8 15,747.9 15,738.8 15,732.6
28,590.7 28,557.3 28,523.0 28,486.2
13,425.0 13,425.0 13,425.0 13,425.0
42,015.7 41,982.3 41,948.0 41,911.2

96,392.8 98,489.2 99,583.2 99,736.9

(8,490.0) (246.3) 6,936.8 13,111.2

(7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0) (7,447.0)


2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7
(5,369.3) (5,369.3) (5,369.3) (5,369.3)
7,447.0 7,447.0 7,447.0 7,447.0
2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7

(6,329.2) (5,270.0) (4,403.5) (3,715.3)


10,705.5 8,952.7 7,883.1 7,450.7
(7,732.4) (7,732.5) (7,732.9) (7,733.2)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 2.8 4.7 0.0
(1,254.1) (1,299.7) (1,357.9) (1,426.4)
(2,532.4) (3,269.0) (3,528.8) (3,346.5)

(11,156.3) (8,182.9) (5,803.1) (3,973.7)


19,847.3 17,568.6 15,391.5 13,304.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6,158.7 6,116.8 6,059.5 5,983.8


9,358.4 8,243.7 7,183.1 6,174.3
Financial Analysis
Historicals

(EUR m) 2019 2020

Value creation and profitability analysis

Sales growth (19.1%)


EBITDA margin 20.6% 23.9%
EBIT margin 8.6% 12.9%
Net income margin 4.3% 5.6%

Investment analysis - CAPEX

Total CAPEX (4,189.0)


D&A 7,163.0

Expanding or downsizing? Downsizing


Is the company divesting? Yes

D&A as a % of CAPEX (171.0%)


D&A as a % average fixed asset 6.4%

Investment analysis - WC

DSO 48.7 55.5


DPO 68.1 88.8
Days inventory 11.5 13.5

Clients are paying Later


Campari is paying suppliers Later
Products stay on stock Longer

Financing analysis

Leverage D/E 1.1x 1.3x


Leverage D/(D+E) 53.1% 55.9%

Debt coverage (Debt/EBITDA) 3.2x 3.5x


Interest coverage 2.7x 3.1x

DSCR 17.3x

Liquidity analysis

Current ratio 0.9x 0.8x


Acid test 0.8x 0.7x

Profitability analysis

ROCE 5.7%

ROCE decomposition
Effective operating tax rate 33.7%
EBIT margin 12.9%
Asset turnover 67.2%
ROCE 5.7%
Check -

ROE 8.1%
Effective interest rate (with average ND) 5.0%

Non-cash equity metrics (supporting FCFE valuation)

Interest income, after tax 3,099.3


FCFE excluding interest income (after tax) 1,980.7
Net income excluding interest income (after tax) 3,476.0 522.7
Equity, excluding cash 37,909.0 36,451.0
Noncash ROE 1.4%
Historicals Explicit forecast

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

31.9% 63.9% (100.0%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!


18.7% 13.3% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
8.8% 8.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
4.5% 2.1% 8.9% 8.8% 6.8% 5.1% 3.7%

(14,805.0) (10,767.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


8,507.0 7,447.0 7,447.0 7,447.0 7,447.0 7,447.0 7,447.0

Downsizing Downsizing Downsizing Downsizing Downsizing Downsizing Downsizing


Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

(57.5%) (69.2%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!


7.5% 6.3% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1% 7.6% 8.3%

56.1 35.4 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!


75.8 45.1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
13.2 12.6 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Later Sooner #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!


Sooner Sooner #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Less Less #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

1.5x 1.9x 1.6x 1.7x 1.7x 1.7x 1.7x


60.0% 65.3% 61.9% 62.7% 63.2% 63.3% 63.1%

4.0x 4.3x 2.8x 3.1x 3.4x 3.8x 4.1x


2.7x 4.1x 44.7x (13.2x) 21.0x 6.2x 4.0x

(1.7x) (0.7x) 27.5x 55.7x 4.6x 2.8x 2.2x

0.9x 0.9x
0.8x 0.8x

5.3% 4.6% 11.0% 9.8% 8.1% 6.6% 5.1%

29.6% 54.7% 28.0% 27.6% 28.1% 28.6% 29.2%


8.8% 8.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
85.1% 126.8% - - - - -
5.3% 4.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

9.1% 6.9% 28.1% 26.5% 19.5% 13.8% 9.5%


4.7% 3.8% 0.5% (1.6%) 0.8% 2.1% 2.6%

3,480.0 4,976.5 7,229.4 8,136.2 6,804.1 5,991.1 5,662.5


3,344.0 386.5 11,460.5 (163.0) (727.6) (1,286.5) (1,848.7)
377.0 (2,056.5) 4,602.8 3,002.5 1,366.0 (197.1) (1,695.0)
33,484.0 31,041.0 24,183.3 27,348.8 29,442.4 30,531.7 30,685.4
1.1% (6.4%) 16.7% 11.7% 4.8% (0.7%) (5.5%)
ENEL
Financial Model

Valuation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Key financials (€m)


D/E 2.1x
Total Debt (Financial) 90,271.0
Equity (book value) 42,082.0
EBIT 11,193.0
Interest expenses 9,294.0
Tax rate 24.0%
Risk-free rate 3.76%
MRP 7.0%
Market return 10.74%
BETA Market 1.0
Beta ENEL 0.9
BETA ENEL Adjusted 0.94
ENEL Interest Coverage Ratio 1.2
ENEL Spread 11.6%

Calculation

EBIT / Interest expenses 1.2x


Spread 11.6%
Kd pre-tax 15.3%
Tax rate 24.0%
Kd post-tax 11.7%

Kel 10.3%
Keu 3.9%

D / (D+E) 68.2%
E / (D+E) 31.8%
WACC 11.2%
Damodaran Spread Table
> <= to Rating Spread
-100000 0.20 D2/D 20%
0.2 0.65 C2/C 17.50%
0.65 0.80 Ca2/CC 15.78%
0.8 1.25 Caa/CCC 11.57%
1.25 1.50 B3/B- 7.37%
1.5 1.75 B2/B 5.26%
1.75 2.00 B1/B+ 4.55%
2 2.25 Ba2/BB 3.13%
2.25 2.50 Ba1/BB+ 2.42%
2.5 3.00 Baa2/BBB 2%
3 4.25 A3/A- 1.62%
4.25 5.50 A2/A 1.42%
5.5 6.50 A1/A+ 1.23%
6.5 8.50 Aa2/AA 0.85%
8.5 100000.00 Aaa/AAA 0.69%
Terminal Cash Flows
Fundamental Bankers' normalized
growth best practice
Terminal FCFO 2026 TV 2028 TV 2028

Sales 0.0 0.0


EBITDA 0.0 #DIV/0!
D&A (7,447.0) #DIV/0!
EBIT (7,447.0) #DIV/0!
(Operational taxes) 2,077.7 #DIV/0!
NOPAT (5,369.3) (5,548.1) #DIV/0!
D&A 7,447.0 #DIV/0!
Change in noncash WC 0.0 0.0
CAPEX 0.0 #DIV/0!
FCFO 2,077.7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
-
Assumptions
Terminal growth rate 3.3%
EBITDA margin #DIV/0!
CAPEX / Sales #DIV/0!
2021 ROCE = Assumed to be terminal ROCE #DIV/0!
Implied terminal capital reinvestment rate #DIV/0!

Fundamental Simple
growth FCFE
Terminal FCFE 2021 TV 2022 TV 2022

Noncash net income (1,695.0) (1,751.5)


+ D&A 7,447.0
Change in WC 0.0
CAPEX 0.0
Change in gross debt 0.0
Change in surplus assets (1,426.4)
FCFE (2,382.1) (2,804.7) (2,461.4)
(533.4)

Assumptions
Terminal growth rate 3.3%
2021 noncash ROE = Terminal noncash ROE (5.5%)
Implied terminal equity reinvestment rate (60.1%)

Terminal tax shield 2021 TV 2022

Tax shields 454.1 567.1


Tax shield on interest expense 1,995.0
Tax effect of interest income (1,832.2)

Gross debt 69,051.5 71,350.9


Cash (overdraft) 11,225.8 11,599.6

Assumptions
Terminal growth rate 3.3%
Cost of debt 11.7%
Interest income rate 65.8%
Income tax rate (with interest deductibility) 24.0%
Simple
FCFO
TV 2028

2,146.9
DCF
Historicals

(EUR m) 2019 2020

Assumptions

Perpetual growth 3.3%


WACC 11.2%
kEU 3.9%
kEL 10.3%
kD 11.7%
Tax shields - Theoretical tax rate 24.0%
Valuation date (= last fiscal year closing date) 31/12/2022

Year

DCF asset side (FCFO) 2019 2020

FCFO
Discount factor (WACC)
Present value of FCFO
Terminal value
PV of FCFO
PV of TV

Enterprise value
(Net debt)
Surplus assets, associates and (pensions)
(Minorities)
Equity value
Number of shares (NOSH) (m)
Equity value per share (€)
Implied EV / EBITDA 2022A multiple

Adjusted present value 2019 2020

FCFO
Discount factor (kEU)
Present value of FCFO
Terminal value
PV of FCFO
PV of TV
Unlevered value

Accounting yealry tax shields

Discount factor (kD)


Present value of TS
Terminal value
PV of TS
PV of TV
Value of tax shields

Enterprise value
(Net debt)
Surplus assets, associates and (pensions)
(Minorities)
Equity value
Number of shares (NOSH) (m)
Equity value per share (€)
Implied EV / EBITDA 2022A multiple

DCF equity side (FCFE) 2019 2020

Noncash FCFE
Discount factor (kEL)
Present value of FCFE
Terminal value
PV of FCFE
PV of TV

Equity value from continuing operations


Cash
Surplus assets
(Minorities)
Equity value
Number of shares (NOSH) (m)
Equity value per share (€)

Gross debt
Enterprise value
Implied EV / EBITDA 2022A multiple
Historicals Explicit forecast TV

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2028 Notes

0 1 2 3 4

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

5,340.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 #DIV/0!


0.899 0.808 0.727 0.653
4,801.6 1,679.4 1,509.9 1,357.5
#DIV/0!
9,348.4
#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!
(79,230.0)
5,325.0
(13,425.0)
#DIV/0!
10,166.7
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2028

5,340.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 2,077.7 #DIV/0!


0.962 0.926 0.891 0.857
5,139.1 1,923.8 1,851.1 1,781.2
#DIV/0!
10,695.2
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

90.3 (261.0) 136.6 371.3 567.1

0.896 0.802 0.718 0.644


80.9 (209.3) 98.1 238.9

208.6
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!
(79,230.0)
5,325.0
(13,425.0)
#DIV/0!
10,166.7
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2028

11,460.5 (163.0) (727.6) (1,286.5) (2,804.7)


0.906 0.822 0.745 0.675
10,388.3 (133.9) (541.9) (868.5)

8,844.0
#REF!

#REF!
11,041.0
1,281.0
(13,425.0)
#REF!
10,166.7
#REF!

90,271.0
#REF!
#REF!
Multiples valuation
Actual multiples date 31/12/2022
Forward +1 multiples date 31/12/2023

(EUR m) Country Currency Market. cap. NetDebt EV

Engie France EURm 32,778.90 25,000.00 57,778.9


E.On Germany EURm 24,629.00 26,827.00 51,456.0
Iberdrola Spain EURm 71,357.00 64,687.00 136,044.0
EDP Portugal EURm 21,715.00 10,882.40 32,597.4
RWE Norway DKKm 28,618.00 14,015.00 42,633.0
Average
Median

Enel SpA Italy EURm 62,525.1 79,230.0 141,755.1

Method EV / EBIT A EV / EBIT A EV / EBIT F

Multiple choice Average Median Average

EBIT 2022 EBIT 2022 EBIT 2023


Enel's corresponding metric Actual Actual Forward
Enel's corresponding metric 11,193.0 11,193.0 18,640.0
Multiple 12.6x 9.9x 12.3x
Enterprise value 140,552.6 110,823.0 229,234.0

(Net debt) (79,230.0) (79,230.0) (79,230.0)


Surplus assets, associates and (pensions) 5,325.0 5,325.0 5,325.0
(Minorities) (13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0)
Equity value 53,222.6 23,493.0 141,904.0
EBITDA EBITDA Net income Net income EV / EBIT EV / EBIT
EBIT Actual EBIT Forward
Actual Forward Actual Forward Actual Forward

9,045.00 7,623.00 13,713.00 13,400.00 216.00 4,000.00 6.4x 7.6x


5,197.00 4,871.00 8,059.00 8,000.00 2,242.00 2,500.00 9.9x 10.6x
7,984.00 8,813.00 13,228.00 13,818.67 4,339.00 4,772.90 17.0x 15.4x
1,619.80 1,899.90 4,523.54 4,750.00 1,169.70 1,072.00 20.1x 17.2x
4,568.00 3,965.00 6,310.00 6,172.00 2,517.00 2,574.00 9.3x 10.8x
12.6x 12.3x
9.9x 10.8x

11,193.0 (7,447.0) 18,640.0 - 2,920.0 11,832.2 12.7x (19.0x)

EV / EBIT F EV / EBITDA A EV / EBITDA A EV / EBITDA F EV / EBITDA F P/E A P/E A P/E F

Median Average Median Average Median Average Median Average

EBIT 2023 EBITDA 2022 EBITDA 2022 EBITDA 2023 EBITDA 2023 Net income Net income Net income
Forward Actual Actual Forward Forward 2022 Actual 2022 Actual 2023 Forward
18,640.0 18,640.0 18,640.0 - - 2,920.0 2,920.0 11,832.2
10.8x 7.0x 6.8x 6.9x 6.9x 14.3x 16.4x 12.9x
200,423.5 129,904.0 125,939.6 0.0 0.0 41,876.6 48,020.8 152,330.8

(79,230.0) (79,230.0) (79,230.0) (79,230.0) (79,230.0)


5,325.0 5,325.0 5,325.0 5,325.0 5,325.0
(13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0) (13,425.0)
113,093.5 42,574.0 38,609.6 (87,330.0) (87,330.0) 55,301.6 61,445.8 165,755.8
EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA
P/E Actual P/E Forward
Actual Forward

4.2x 4.3x 151.8x 8.2x


6.4x 6.4x 11.0x 9.9x
10.3x 9.8x 16.4x 15.0x
7.2x 6.9x 18.6x 20.3x
6.8x 6.9x 11.4x 11.1x
7.0x 6.9x 14.3x 12.9x
6.8x 6.9x 16.4x 11.1x

7.6x #DIV/0! 21.4x 5.3x

P/E F

Median

Net income
2023 Forward
11,832.2
11.1x
131,551.4

(13,425.0)
144,976.4

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