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Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

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8 views

Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

Uploaded by

24ibm177
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Scenario Summary

Current Values: Base Case Best Case Worst Case


Changing Cells:
UnitSold 115000 115000 138000 92000
SP 3.25 3.25 3.9 2.6
VC 1.95 1.95 1.56 2.34
FC 70000 70000 56000 84000
Cost 175000 175000 140000 210000
WACC 10% 10% 8% 12%
Result Cells:
NPV ₹ 4,016.01 ₹ 4,016.01 ₹ 324,244.48 ₹ -227,897.92
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Cash Flow Estimation
Initial Cost 175000

Unit Sold 115000 Investment Outlay at t0


SP 3.25 Initial Investmemnt
VC 1.95 Change in WC
FC 70000
CA 35000 Operating Cash Flow over Project Life
CL 15000 Unit Sold
Change in WC 20000 SP
Revenue
I II III IV
MACRS 33.330% 44.440% 14.810% 7.410% 100% Variable Cost
Fixed Cost
Tax Rate 40% Depreciation Expenses
Scrap Value 15000
WACC 10% EBIT
Less Tax
EBT
EBIT(1-tax) +Dep

Terminal Cashflow at t3
Salvage Value
Book Value at the end
Tax on Profit of sales
After-Tax Salvage Value
Recovery of WC

Projected FCF

DF
DCF

NPV

Sensitivity Analysis

1 -20%
2 -10%
3 0%
4 10%
5 20%
Scenario
0 1 2 3
nt Outlay at t0
-175000
-20000

Cash Flow over Project Life


115000 115000 115000
3.25 3.25 3.25
373750 373750 373750

224250 224250 224250


70000 70000 70000
on Expenses 58327.5 77770 25917.5 12967.5

21172.5 1730 53582.5


8469 692 21433
12703.5 1038 32149.5
71031 78808 58067

Cashflow at t3
15000
e at the end 12967.5
813
Salvage Value 14187
20000

-195000 71031 78808 92254

1 0.909090909 0.826446281 0.751314801


₹ -195,000.00 ₹ 64,573.64 ₹ 65,130.58 ₹ 69,311.80

₹ 4,016.01

Unit Sold NPV SP NPV


₹ 4,016.01 ₹ 4,016.01
92000 -40598.1142 2.6 -107519.3013
103500 -18291.05184 2.925 -51751.64538
115000 4016.010518 3.25 4016.010518
126500 26323.07288 3.575 59783.66642
138000 48630.13524 3.9 115551.3223
Best Case Base Case Worst Case
Unit Sale 138000 115000 92000
SP 3.9 3.25 2.6
VC 1.56 1.95 2.34
FC 56000 70000 84000
Cost of Investme 140000 175000 210000
WACC 0.08 10% 0.12

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