Lebanese International School Limited

GEOGRAPHY
POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population Growth and Explosion
The world population refers to the number of people living on earth. In 1 AD, the world population was
about 200 million. 1000 AD a thousand years later, it was 275 million. By 1800 AD, the world
population had reached 900 million. From then on, it increased very rapidly. The population explosion
refers to the sharp increase in the world population. Since 1950, the population explosion is causing
alarming concern over the ability of the earth to provide enough resources for humans. From 1960 to
2000, the world population has increased from 3 billion to 6 billion; and from 2000 to 2022, the world
population has increased from 6 billion to 8 billion. If this trend continues, the world population is
expected to reach 11 billion by 2050.

Factors Influencing Population Growth

Population change or growth in a country is affected by:
 The difference between birth rates and death rates (natural change).
 The balance between immigration and emigration (positive/negative net migration).

Reasons for Population Explosion

The population explosion took place in two stages. The first was in the earliest industrialised countries
and the second was much later, in poorer, mainly agricultural countries.

Stages of the Population Explosion

Stage One

In the 18th and 19th centuries, the development of industry led to rapid population growth, especially in
Europe. The new factories needed large numbers of workers.

Stage Two
In the 20th century, improved medical facilities worldwide increased the life expectancy of ordinary
working people. Also, in poorer agricultural countries, children are needed to work on the farm.

Reasons for Population Explosion

 Economic: children can be an important source of income.
 Care for the elderly: older children can support the family by looking after elderly parents, or
parents whose working lives are cut short by illness and accidents.
 Infant mortality: parents want to make sure that at least some of their children will survive and
become adults.
 Life expectancy: people are now living longer because of improved medical knowledge, food
and a more nutritious diet.

Note: See map (Figure A, page 4) on population explosion in different place at different times.
Factors that Encourage High Birth Rate

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  Early marriages: in some countries, people marry when they are as young as 15 years old.
Women who marry young are likely to have more children than those who marry later.
 Children are seen as wealth: in some Asian countries, children are regarded as assets
because they can help in the farms.
 High number of deaths among children: in some LEDCs where health care services are
lacking, children die at a very young age. So they have more children in case some die early.
 Lack of knowledge on birth control: people who are ignorant of birth control methods may
have more children than they really want.
 Preference of male child: some families prefer boys to girls and in their quest to have baby
boys; they end up having more children than necessary.
 Religious beliefs: some of the religions do not allow use of contraceptives and abortion. Like
the Roman Catholic and Islam do not allow doing abortion and the Muslims are also allowed to
practice polygamy.

Reasons for a Decline in Population Growth/Explosion

The world’s fertility rate is now 2.6 children, half what it was in 1950. Below are the reasons why the
rate of population growth has slowed down in recent years:
 Birth control: allows people to choose how many children they will have.
 Lower fertility rate: parents know that most of their children will survive.
 Career decisions: more women take up a career rather than having several children.
 Higher cost of living: so families in the richest countries tend to be smaller.
 National population control policies: lead to a lower birth rate, e.g. in China.

Effects of Population Growth/Explosion on People

A population can grow so rapidly that there are no enough essential resources such as food and
water. This is called over population.

Population can be a limiting factor to economic development because of the following reasons:
 Reduces the rate of capital formation.
 High population requires more investment.
 Large population leads to unemployment.
 Rapid population growth creates food problems.
 High population has an adverse effect on the environment and resources.
 Growing population lowers standard of living.

An increase in population can also have economic benefits:

 There are more customers to buy locally made goods. This creates jobs close to where people
live.
 Large quantities of goods can be manufactured and made more cheaply, so more people can
afford to buy them.
 Cheaper goods means they are easier to sell abroad, which earns extra money for the country.
 More jobs means less unemployment which enables parents to provide their children with a
better standard of living and conditions of life.

Note: See graph ‘D’, page 3 on world population 1800-2011: the ‘billion-person points’.

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Population Growth at Different Rates
As in any country, the rate of population growth in our country is due to changes in three variables:
 Birth rate
 Death rate ( including the infant mortality rate)
 International migration.

The infant mortality rate is usually the most important of these. Parents may be aware that some of
their children are likely to die before they reach adulthood, because of lack of good diet or poor
healthcare.

Other major causes of death

Apart from old age, the main causes of death are:
 Diseases and infections such as cholera, malaria and typhoid etc.
 Natural hazards/disasters, especially earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and floods etc.
 Human conflicts, e.g. war.

Diseases and Infections

Death rates across the world have decreased significantly over the last 50 years, due to improvement
in healthcare, although the cause of death is significantly noticeably in different parts of the world
(graphs A, page 12). Reasons for this decline include:

 Increased medical knowledge.

 More effective medicine and healthcare.
 Education about the importance of balanced and nutritious diet.

However, many diseases are still major killers. For example, malaria kills at least 1 million people
every year. Diagram B, page 13 explains how people are infected with malaria.

A pandemic is an outbreak of an infectious disease so widespread that it kills millions of people in a

very short time. There have been several pandemics in the past, for example:

 The so-called ‘Black Death’ of the mid-14th century, which we now know was spread by rat-
borne fleas, killed over 75 million people in Europe.
 The ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic of 1918-20 killed a similar number of people.

HIV/AIDS is also a recent pandemic. It is particularly widespread among people under 60 years of age.
Since it was first identified in 1981 it has caused an estimated 36 million deaths – equivalent to the
population of Canada or Morocco or Uganda.

Note: For more understanding, see Table C, photo D and graph E, page 13.
Coronavirus disease or COVID 19 is the most recent pandemic. It was first identified on December
31, 2019. The WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020,
and later declared a pandemic, meaning it is spreading globally, on March 11, 2020. Globally, the
Covid – 19 pandemic has sickened more than 603 million people and claimed the lives of more than
6.4 million, according to John Hopkins University. The United States has the world’s largest number of
cases – over 95 million – and more than 1 million deaths.

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Human conflicts and natural hazards can have a serious impact on a country’s population (see map
A and graph B, on page 6).
For example, a natural hazard such as a tsunami or powerful earthquake or volcanic eruption may
sweep away almost everything and everybody in the area (see photo ‘C’, page 7: the Japanese
tsunami of 2011). Human conflict has a similar effect. It can involve the death and injury of hundreds
and even thousands of people, for example, in Bosnia-Herzegovina in Europe (1992-95) and in Darfur
is Sudan (2003-06). Armed fighters in the 20-45 year age range are most likely to die in such conflicts.
However, modern warfare can affect people of any age, and can have a long-lasting effect on a
country’s total population (see photo ‘D’, page 7).

Demographic Transition Model

The demographic transition model is a graph which shows the relationship between birth rate, death
rate and total population. It is a broad generalization about population growth since the middle of the
eighteenth century.

The model suggests that:

 No country as a whole retains the characteristics of Stage 1.
 The poorest of the less developed countries are in Stage 2. Examples are Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Bolivia, Niger, Uganda, Yemen etc.
 Most less developed countries which have undergone significant social and economic changes
are in Stage 3. Examples, Botswana, India, Mexico, South Africa, United Arab Emirates,
Colombia etc.
 Argentina, Australia, UK, USA, Some of the newly industrialised countries (NIC) such as
China, South Korea and Taiwan are in Stage 4.
 Russia, Japan and some of the countries in Eastern and Southern Europe experience or pass
through Stage 5.

Stages In The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1: Pre-Industrial (High Fluctuating) - High Stationary
Both birth rate and death rate are high.
Birth rate is high because:
 No birth control or family planning.
 Religious beliefs encourage large families.
 Early marriage and polygamy.

 Traditional societies encourage large families.

 Children are needed to work on the farm.

Death rate is high because:

 Outbreak of diseases like cholera, malaria and typhoid etc.
 Famine and poor diet.
 Poor hygiene, no clean water.
 No sewage disposal.
 Lack of medical care.
 Natural disasters like floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and droughts.

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Stage 2: The Industrial Revolution (Early Expanding) - Very Rapid Increase
High birth rate and a falling death rate.
Birth rate is high because: (see all the reasons in stage 1)
Death rate is falling because:
 Improved medical care through vaccination, hospitals and doctors.
 Improved sanitation and water supply.
 Improvement of food production.
 Decreasing child mortality.

Stage 3: Post Industrial Revolution (Late Expanding) – Increase Slow Down

Falling birth rate and falling death rate.
Birth rate is falling because:
 Family planning techniques are practiced.
 Government population policies, e.g. One-child policy of China.
 Lower infant mortality rate.
 Improvement in social status for women through education.
 Improvement in pre-natal and post-natal care, reducing infant mortality rate.
Death rate is falling because: (see reasons in stage 2)

Stage 4: Stabilization (Low Stationary) – Very Slow Increase

Both birth rate and death rate are low and continue to decline.

Stage 5: Stabilization (Low Stationary) – Very Slow Decrease

Low birth rate and a slowly increasing death rate.
Birth rate is low because:
 Changing lifestyles, e.g. less marriages and cohabitation.
 Career-oriented women.
 Late marriages decrease fertility period.
 Good health and family planning.
 Increasing incidents of same-sex relationship.
 Availability of birth control techniques.

Death rate is high because:

 High rates of crimes and spread of viruses.
 Old age diseases.
 Increasing suicide rates.
 Traffic accidents.
 Clashes, riots, wars etc.

Case Studies

1. Anti-natalist Population Policies

A. One Child Policy in China

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The ‘One Child’ Policy is a population control policy of the People’s Republic of China. It officially
restricts married couples from having more than one child. This policy was introduced in 1978 and
initially to first born children from 1979.

The policy seeks:

 To address overpopulation.
 The policy was introduced to promote one child families.
 Parents with multiple children are not given the same benefits as parents of one child.
 In most cases, wealthy families pay a fee to the government in order to have a second child or
more children.
 The limit has been strongly enforced in urban areas.
 In most rural areas, families are allowed to have a second child if their first-born is a daughter.
 Parents are given a second chance if the first born suffers from physically disability, mental
illness, or mental retardation.
 Families violating the policy are required to pay penalties and may possibly be denied bonuses
at their workplace.
 Chinese citizens returning from abroad are allowed to have a second child.

Benefits of being a One-child family

 Better childcare.
 Cash bonuses.
 Longer maternity leave.
 Better chances of promotion for government employees.
 Better housing.

Penalties for not following the One-child Policy

 Government employees sacked.
 Government employees’ retirement pensions cancelled.
 Fines imposed (could be up to four times a family’s income).
 Farmers who could not pay fines in cash had cattle taken from them.
 Extra children denied the same quality of education and healthcare as the first child.
 Basic rice allowance withdrawn for all extra children.

Positive Impacts:
 The authorities claim that the policy has prevented more than 400 million births from about
1979 to 2011.
 The individuals saving rate has increased since the one-child policy was introduced.
 The fertility rate in China fell from 2.63 births per woman in 1980 to 1.61 in 2009.
 The focus on population control provided better health service for women.
 At family planning offices, women received free contraception and pre-natal classes.

Negative Impacts:
 The policy has increased the rate of forced abortions, infanticide, and underreporting of female
births.
 The sex-ratio at birth in China was very high due to the preference for a boy child.
 Resulted into Gender-selected abortion, abandonment, and infanticide.
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  Since there are no penalties for multiple births, couples turned to fertility medicine to have
twins.
 Government officials and wealthy persons have often been able to violate the policy in spite of
fines.

Age Dependency in China and the World: (see pie charts ‘E’, page 15).
Problem of Age Dependency
China now has a very ‘unbalanced’ population structure, with more men than women – 117 men to
every 100 women. Another concern is age dependency (graphs E, page 15), which means the elderly
population becomes dependent on the younger generations. It is described as china’s ‘4-2-1 problem’,
because many single children (1) will become responsible for caring for their parents (2) and their four
grandparents (4).

2. Pro-natalist Population Policies

Other governments have created policies to encourage people to have more children in order to boost
their population growth rate. These are known as pro-natalist policies (pro means ‘for’). In Western
Europe, for example, between 1980 and 2011 only one country had a fertility rate above the critical 2.1
population replacement level (see table A, page 17).
Germany has the largest population in Europe, but it is still concerned about its declining fertility rate.
New measures to increase the birth rate include subsidizing childcare and contributing to parents’
income while they are caring for infants.

A. France Population Strategies

France has some of the most extensive state-funded childcare facilities in Europe.
France’s pro-natalist policy has clearly been successful in stabilizing its fertility rate (table A, page 16).
One of the country’s most popular strategies has been the Carte Familles Nombreuses (‘Large Family
Card’). This gives families with three or more children reductions on the national train network and half-
price on the Paris Metro underground system.

The following are the pro-natalist measures taken by the French government:
 All childcare facilities subsidised by the government.
 System of crèches for toddlers.
 Up to 26 months’ entitlement to time off work, to be shared by both parents.
 Tax deductions towards home-help costs for working mothers.
 Subsidised state nursery schools for children aged 3 or over.
 Free pre-school facilities for children aged 2 and 3.
 Loss of earnings payments for parents of a third child.
 Graded income tax system – the bigger the family, the less tax to be paid.
 Up to 16 weeks’ paid maternity leave for first child, rising to 26 weeks for third child.

Over-population and Under-population

Over-population
This is when the total number of people living in a country is more than the available resources of
that country, e.g. Nigeria. Also, regions like the African desert maybe over-populated, even though
very few people live there (they are sparsely populated), because the land cannot support the
people who live there.

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 Under-population
This is when the total number of people living in a country is less than the available resources of
that country, e.g. Australia. Again, Canada has many resources which are not all being used. Many
more people could live there and enjoy a high standard of living.

Optimum population
This is when the available resources are enough for the total population living in a country.

Resources and Population

There are two questions to ask when deciding whether a country is over-populated or under-
populated:
 Do people have what they need in order to stay alive and to provide for their families (see
diagram ‘C’, page 9)?
 Are the country’s resources sufficient to support its population?

Reading Assignment
Case Study:
1. Liberia – a country with a high rate of natural population growth (page 8). Diagram ‘B’ on
page 9 provides more information about this country, including some reasons why its
birth rate is so high.
2. Niger – a country with a high rate of natural population growth.

Too Many People, Too Few Resources

There are a number of reasons why a place may not be able to support a large number of people –
that is, why it may be over-populated. For example:
 A lack of clean water may force people to use polluted water and possibly fall ill.
 Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change.
 Loss of jobs – when valuable natural resources become exhausted, workers are no longer
needed and will not be able to support their families.
 Population growth – when there is a rapid population growth, or an increase in immigrants, a
country may be less able to provide for its people.
 Clearing of forested areas can result in families not having the fuel they need for cooking,
heating and washing.
 Natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods often deprive local communities of the
resources they need, for example water, food and shelter.

Over-population versus Under-population

Both large and small countries can be under-populated and over-populated. We are going to look at
one very large country (Canada) in terms of area, which has a relatively small population and another
(Tanzania) which has one of the largest and fastest growing populations in Africa. Canada is under-
populated because it has an advanced industrialised economy and so many valuable natural
resources that it could easily provide extra people with a high standard of living. Tanzania is an over-
populated country, the information on pages 10 and 11 will allow you to understand why and how
Tanzania differs from Canada.

Reading Assignment

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Case Study:
Canada – an under-populated country and
Tanzania – an over-populated country
(Table A, page 10, summarises information about the population of Canada and Tanzania and
Figure B, page 11, looks at Canada’s resources of which its greatest natural assets are its
mineral resources such as oil and gas).