Dr Oliver

Dr Oliver Mathematics
Mathematics
Further Mathematics
Binomial Distribution
Past Examination Questions
This booklet consists of 36 questions across a variety of examination topics.
Dr Oliver
The total number of marks available is 282.

Symbol Expectation Variance Continuity Correction?

Binomial Bpn, pq Mathematics
np npp1 ´ pq No
Poisson Popλq λ “ np λ “ np No
Normal Npµ, σ 2 q µ “ np 2
σ “ npp1 ´ pq Yes

Dr Oliver
1. A farmer noticed that some of the eggs laid by his hens had double yolks. He estimated
the probability of this happening to be 0.05. Eggs are packed in boxes of 12.

(a) exactly one,

Mathematics
Find the probability that in a box, the number of eggs with double yolks will be
(3)

Solution
Let X represent the number of double yolks in a box of eggs 6 X „ Bp12, 0.05q.
Then Dr Oliver
PpX “ 1q “ PpX ě 1q ´ PpX ě 0q
Mathematics
“ 0.8816 ´ 0.05404 (from the tables)
“ 0.3412 (4 dp).

(b) more than three.

Dr Oliver (2)

Solution
Mathematics
PpX ą 3q “ 1 ´ PpX ě 3q
“ 1 ´ 0.9978 (from the tables)
“ 0.0022 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
A customer bought three boxes.
Mathematics
 Dr Oliver
(c) Find the probability that only 2 of the boxes contained exactly 1 egg with a double (3)
yolk.

Solution
Mathematics
ˆ ˙
3
Pponly twoq “ p0.3412q2 p0.6588q
2

Dr Oliver “ 0.230 087 428 4 (FCD)

“ 0.2301 (4 dp).

Mathematics
The farmer delivered 10 boxes to a local shop.
(d) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that the delivery contained at (4)
least 9 eggs with double yolks.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
Let Y represent the number of double yolks in 10 boxes of eggs
6 Y „ Bp120, 0.05q.
Now,

EpY q “ 120 ˆ 0.05 “ 6 and VarpY q “ 120 ˆ 0.05 ˆ 0.95 “ 5.7;

Dr Oliver
the expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p) so we
try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop6q. Then

Mathematics
PpY ě 9q “ 1 ´ PpY ď 8q
“ 1 ´ 0.8472 (from the tables)
“ 0.1528.

distribution.
Dr Oliver
2. (a) State two conditions under which a random variable can be modelled by a binomial (2)

Solution Mathematics
e.g., constant probability of success, fixed number of trials, independent trials,
success and failure

Dr Oliver
In the production of a certain electronic component it is found that 10% are defective.
The component is produced in batches of 20.

Mathematics 2
 Dr Oliver
(b) Write down a suitable model for the distribution of defective components in a batch. (1)

Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of defective components 6 X „ Bp20, 0.1q.

Dr Oliver
Find the probability that a batch contains
(c) no defective components, (2)

Solution Mathematics
PpX “ 0q “ 0.1216 (from the tables)

(d) more than 6 defective components. (2)

Solution Dr Oliver
Mathematics
PpX ą 6q “ 1 ´ PpX ě 6q
“ 1 ´ 0.9976 (from the tables)
“ 0.0024.

Dr Oliver
(e) Find the mean and the variance of the defective components in a batch. (2)

Solution
Mathematics
Mean “ 20 ˆ 0.1 “ 2.
Variance “ 20 ˆ 0.1 ˆ 0.9 “ 1.8.

A supplier buys 100 components. The supplier will receive a refund if there are more
Dr Oliver
than 15 defective components.
(f) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that the supplier will receive (4)
a refund.

Solution
Mathematics
Let Y represent the number of defective components of 100 6 Y „ Bp100, 0.1q.
Now,
EpY q “ 100 ˆ 0.1 “ 10 and VarpY q “ 100 ˆ 0.1 ˆ 0.9 “ 9;
Dr Oliver
Mathematics 3
 Dr Oliver
the expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p) so we
Mathematics
try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop10q. Then

PpY ą 15q “ 1 ´ PpY ď 15q

“ 1 ´ 0.9513 (from the tables)
“ 0.0497.
Dr Oliver
Find PpR “ 5q.
Mathematics
3. The random variables R are distributed as follows R „ Bp15, 0.3q. (2)

Solution

Dr Oliver
PpR “ 5q “ PpR ď 5q ´ PpR ď 4q
“ 0.7216 ´ 0.5155 (from the tables)
Mathematics
“ 0.2061.

4. In an experiment, there are 250 trials and each trial results in a success or a failure. (2)

Dr Oliver
Write down two other conditions needed to make this into a binomial experiment.

Solution
Mathematics
e.g., constant probability of success, fixed number of trials, independent trials

5. From company records, a manager knows that the probability that a defective article is

Dr Oliver
produced by a particular production line is 0.032.

A random sample of 10 articles is selected from the production line.

Mathematics
(a) Find the probability that exactly 2 of them are defective. (3)

Solution

Dr Oliver
Mathematics 4
 Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of defective articles 6 X „ Bp10, 0.032q. Then
Mathematics
PpX “ 2q “
ˆ ˙
10
p0.032q2 p0.968q8
2
“ 0.035 523 465 66 (FCD)
“ 0.0036 (4 dp).
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
On another occasion, a random sample of 100 articles is taken.
(b) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that fewer than 4 of them are (4)
defective.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let Y represent the number of defective articles of 100 6 Y „ Bp100, 0.032q.
Now,

Mathematics
EpY q “ 100 ˆ 0.032 “ 3.2 and VarpY q “ 100 ˆ 0.032 ˆ 0.968 “ 3.0976;

the expectation and the variance are almost (large n and small p) equal so we
try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop3.2q. Then

Dr Oliver
PpY ă 4q “ PpY “ 0q ` PpY “ 1q ` PpY “ 2q ` PpY “ 3q
„
“ e´3.2 1 ` 3.2 `
3.2 2
`
3.2 3


2! 3!
Mathematics
“ 0.602 519 724 4 (FCD)
“ 0.6025 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
At a later date, a random sample of 1000 is taken.
(c) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that more than 42 are defective. (6)

Mathematics
Solution
Let A represent the number of defective articles of 1000 6 A „ Bp1000, 0.032q.
Now,

Dr Oliver
EpAq “ 1000 ˆ 0.032 “ 32 and VarpAq “ 1000 ˆ 0.032 ˆ 0.968 “ 30.976;

Mathematics 5
 Dr Oliver
np “ 32 and nq “ 968 so we use a normal approximation: A «„ Np32, 30.976q.
Then Mathematics
PpA ą 42q “ PpA ě 42.5q
“ 1 ´ PpA ď 42.5q
ˆ ˙
42.5 ´ 32
“1´Φ ?
Dr Oliver 30.976
“ 1 ´ Φp1.89q

Mathematics
“ 1 ´ 0.9706 (from the tables)
“ 0.0294

6. It is estimated that 4% of people have green eyes. In a random sample of size n, the
Dr Oliver
expected number of people with green eyes is 5.
(a) Calculate the value of n. (3)

Solution Mathematics
Let X represent the number of green-eyed people 6 X „ Bpn, 0.04q. Then

np “ EpXq ñ 0.04n “ 5 ñ n “ 125.

Dr Oliver
The expected number of people with green eyes in a second random sample is 3.

sample.
Mathematics
(b) Find the standard deviation of the number of people with green eyes in this second (4)

Solution
Let Y represent the number of green-eyed people 6 Y „ Bp3, 0.04q. Then

Dr Oliver
VarpY q “ 3 ˆ 0.96 ñ VarpY q “ 2.88
ñ σY “ 1.697 056 275 (FCD)
Mathematics ñ σY “ 1.70 (3 sf).

7. In a manufacturing process, 2% of the articles produced are defective. A batch of

200 articles is selected.
Dr Oliver
(a) Giving a justification for your choice, use a suitable approximation to estimate the (5)
probability that there are exactly 5 defective articles.
Mathematics 6
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of defective articles 6 X „ Bp200, 0.02q. Now,

EpXq “ 200 ˆ 0.02 “ 4 and VarpXq “ 200 ˆ 0.02 ˆ 0.98 “ 3.92;

the expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p) so we
try the Poisson distribution 6 X «„ Pop4q. Now,
Dr Oliver e´4 45
PpX “ 5q “
Mathematics 5!
“ 0.156 293 345 19 (FCD)
“ 0.1563 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
(b) Estimate the probability there are less than 5 defective articles. (2)

Solution
Mathematics
PpX ă 5q “ PpX ď 4q
“ 0.6288 (from the tables).

Dr Oliver
8. A drugs company claims that 75% of patients suffering from depression recover when
treated with a new drug.
Mathematics
A random sample of 10 patients with depression is taken from a doctor’s records.
(a) Write down a suitable distribution to model the number of patients in this sample (2)
who recover when treated with the new drug.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let X represent of patients suffering from depression 6 X „ Bp10, 0.75q.

Mathematics
Given that the claim is correct,
(b) find the probability that the treatment will be successful for exactly 6 patients. (2)

Solution
Dr Oliver
Mathematics 7
 Dr Oliver
We need to ‘reverse’ the table: for example, PpX “ 1q we take to be PpX “ 9q.
Mathematics
PpX “ 6q “ PpX ď 6q ´ PpX ď 5q
“ 0.9219 ´ 0.7759 (from the tables)
“ 0.1460.

Dr Oliver
[We do PpX ď 4q ´ PpX ď 3q instead of PpX ď 6q ´ PpX ď 5q because we pair
0, 10 and 1, 9 and 2, 8 and 3, 8 and 4, 6 and 5, 5.]

Mathematics
9. A fair coin is tossed 4 times.

Find the probability that

(a) an equal number of heads and tails occur, (2)

Solution Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of heads 6 X „ Bp4, 0.5q. Then
Mathematics
PpX “ 2q “
ˆ ˙
4
p0.5q2 p0.5q2 “ 0.375.
2

Solution
Dr Oliver
(b) all the outcomes are the same, (3)

Mathematics
Ppall the outcomes are the sameq “ PpX “ 0q ` PpX “ 4q
“ 0.0625 ` 0.0625
“ 0.125.

Dr Oliver
(c) the first tail occurs on the third throw. (2)

Solution Mathematics
PpHHT q “ 0.5 ˆ 0.5 ˆ 0.5 “ 0.125.

10. The random variable X „ Bp150, 0.02q. (4)

Dr Oliver
Use a suitable approximation to estimate PpX ą 7q.

Mathematics 8
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Now, Mathematics
EpXq “ 150 ˆ 0.02 “ 3 and VarpXq “ 150 ˆ 0.02 ˆ 0.98 “ 2.94;
the expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p) so we try
the Poisson distribution 6 X «„ Pop3q.

Dr Oliver
PpX ą 7q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 6q
“ 1 ´ 0.9881 (from the tables)

Mathematics
“ 0.0119.

11. A manufacturer produces large quantities of coloured mugs. It is known from previous
records that 6% of the production will be green. A random sample of 10 mugs was taken
from the production line.Dr Oliver
(a) Define a suitable distribution to model the number of green mugs in this sample. (1)

Solution Mathematics
Let X represent the number of green mugs 6 X „ Bp10, 0.06q.

(b) Find the probability that there were exactly 3 green mugs in the sample. (3)

Solution Dr Oliver ˆ ˙
10
Mathematics
PpX “ 3q “
3
p0.06q3 p0.94q7

“ 0.016 808 539 24 (FCD)

“ 0.0168 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
A random sample of 125 mugs was taken.

Mathematics
(c) Find the probability that there were between 10 and 13 (inclusive) green mugs in
this sample, using
(i) a Poisson approximation, (3)

Solution
Let Y represent the number of green mugs 6 Y „ Bp125, 0.06q. Now,
Dr Oliver
EpY q “ 125 ˆ 0.06 “ 7.5 and VarpY q “ 125 ˆ 0.06 ˆ 0.94 “ 7.05;

Mathematics 9
 Dr Oliver
the expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p) so
Mathematics
we try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop7.5q.

Pp10 ď Y ď 13q “ PpY ď 13q ´ PpY ď 9q

“ 0.9784 ´ 0.7764 (from the tables)
“ 0.2020.
Dr Oliver
(ii) a Normal approximation. (6)

Solution
Mathematics
Also, Y «„ Np7.5, 7.05q.

Pp10 ď Y ď 13q “ Pp9.5 ď Y ď 13.5q

Dr Oliver
ˆ ˙
9.5 ´ 7.5 13.5 ´ 7.5
“Φ ? ďZď ?
7.05 7.05
“ Φ p0.75 ď Z ď 2.26q
Mathematics “ 0.9881 ´ 0.7734 (from the tables)
“ 0.2147.

Dr Oliver
12. The random variable K has a binomial distribution with parameters n “ 25 and p “ 0.27.

Find PpK ď 1q.

Mathematics
Solution

PpK ď 1q “ PpK “ 0q ` PpK “ 1q

Dr Oliver
“ p0.73q25 ` 25p0.73q24 p0.27q
“ 0.003 923 288 459 (FCD)

Mathematics
“ 0.0039 (4 dp).

13. For a particular type of plant 45% have white flowers and the remainder have coloured

Dr Oliver
flowers. Gardenmania sells plants in batches of 12. A batch is selected at random.

Calculate the probability that this batch contains

Mathematics 10
 Dr Oliver
(a) exactly 5 plants with white flowers, (3)

Solution Mathematics
Let X represent the number of white flowers 6 X „ Bp12, 0.45q.

PpX “ 5q “ PpX ď 5q ´ PpX ď 4q

“ 0.5269 ´ 0.3044 (from the tables)
Dr Oliver
“ 0.2225.

Mathematics
(b) more plants with white flowers than coloured ones. (2)

Solution

PpX ě 7q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 6q
Dr Oliver
“ 1 ´ 0.7393 (from the tables)
“ 0.2607.
Mathematics
Gardenmania takes a random sample of 10 batches of plants.
(c) Find the probability that exactly 3 of these batches contain more plants with white (3)
flowers than coloured ones.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
Ppexactly threeq “
ˆ ˙
10
3
p0.2607q3 p0.7393q7

“ 0.256 654 736 2 (FCD)

“ 0.2567 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
Due to an increasing demand for these plants by large companies, Gardenmania decides
Mathematics
to sell them in batches of 50.
(d) Use a suitable approximation to calculate the probability that a batch of 50 plants (7)
contains more than 25 plants with white flowers.

Solution

Dr Oliver
Let Y represent the number of white flowers 6 Y „ Bp50, 0.45q. Now,
EpY q “ 50 ˆ 0.45 “ 22.5 and VarpY q “ 50 ˆ 0.45 ˆ 0.55 “ 12.375;

Mathematics 11
 Dr Oliver
we have large n and p close to 0.5 so we try the Normal distribution
Mathematics
6 Y «„ Np22.5, 12.375q.

PpY ą 25q “ PpY ě 26q

“ PpY ě 25.5q
“ 1 ´ PpY ď 25.5q
Dr Oliver ˆ
“1´P Z ď ?
25.5 ´ 22.5
12.375
˙

Mathematics
“ 1 ´ Φp0.85q
“ 1 ´ 0.8023 (from the tables)
“ 0.1977.

Dr Oliver
14. (a) (i) Write down two conditions for X „ Bpn, pq to be approximated by a normal
distribution Y „ Npµ, σ 2 q.
(2)

Solution Mathematics
large n, n ą 10, or np ą 5 and nq ą 5
p close to 0.5

(ii) Write down the mean and variance of this normal approximation in terms of n (2)
and p. Dr Oliver
Solution
EpXq “ np Mathematics
VarpXq “ npq or npp1 ´ pq

Dr Oliver
A factory manufactures 2000 DVDs every day. It is known that 3% of DVDs are faulty.
(b) Using a normal approximation, estimate the probability that at least 40 faulty (5)
DVDs are produced in one day.

Solution
Mathematics

Dr Oliver
Mathematics 12
 Dr Oliver
Using Y „ Np60, 58.2q,

ˆ
Mathematics
PpY ě 40q “ PpY ě 39.5q
˙
39.5 ´ 60
“P Zě ?
58.2
ˆ ˙
39.5 ´ 60
Dr Oliver
“1´P Z ď ?
58.2
“ 1 ´ Φp´2.70q (it is the closest we can get to ´ 2.687 . . .q

Mathematics
“ 1 ´ p1 ´ Φp2.70qq
“ Φp2.70q
“ 0.9965 (from the tables).

Dr Oliver
The quality control system in the factory identifies and destroys every faulty DVD at
the end of the manufacturing process. It costs £0.70 to manufacture a DVD and the
factory sells non-faulty DVDs for £11.
Mathematics
(c) Find the expected profit made by the factory per day. (3)

Solution
Using EpY q “ 60,

Dr Oliver
expected profit “ 1940 ˆ 11 ´ 2000 ˆ 0.70
“ 21 340 ´ 1 400

Mathematics “ £19 940.

15. The probability of a bolt being faulty is 0.3. Find the probability that in a random
sample of 20 bolts there are
(a) exactly 2 faulty bolts,Dr Oliver (2)

Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of faulty bolts 6 X „ Bp20, 0.3q.

PpX “ 2q “ PpX ď 2q ´ PpX ď 1q

“ 0.0355 ´ 0.0076 (from the tables)

Dr Oliver
“ 0.0279.

Mathematics 13
 Dr Oliver
(b) more than 3 faulty bolts. (2)

Solution Mathematics
PpX ą 3q “ PpX ě 4q
“ 1 ´ PpX ď 3q
“ 1 ´ 0.1071 (from the tables)
Dr Oliver“ 0.8929.

Mathematics
These bolts are sold in bags of 20. John buys 10 bags.
(c) Find the probability that exactly 6 of these bags contain more than 3 faulty bolts. (3)

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let Y represent the number of of faulty bolts 6 Y „ Bp200, 0.3q.
ˆ ˙
Mathematics
PpY “ 6q “
10
6
p0.8929q6 p0.1071q4

“ 0.014 002 130 34 (FCD)

“ 0.0140 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
16. Each cell of a certain animal contains 11000 genes. It is known that each gene has a
Mathematics
probability 0.0005 of being damaged.

A cell is chosen at random.

(a) Suggest a suitable model for the distribution of the number of damaged genes in (2)
the cell.

Solution Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of faulty bolts
Mathematics
6 X „ Bp11000, 0.005q.

(b) Find the mean and variance of the number of damaged genes in the cell. (2)

Solution
Dr Oliver
Mathematics 14
 Dr Oliver
EpXq “ 11000 ˆ 0.0005 “ 5.5
Mathematics
VarpXq “ 11000 ˆ 0.0005 ˆ 0.995 “ 5.4725

(c) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that there are at most 2 dam- (4)
aged genes in the cell.

Solution Dr Oliver
We have large n and small p so we try the Poisson distribution

Mathematics
6 X «„ Pop5.5q. Now,

PpX ď 2q “ 0.0884 (from the tables)

Dr Oliver
17. Sue throws a fair coin 15 times and records the number of times it shows a head.
(a) State the distribution to model the number of times the coin shows a head. (2)

Solution Mathematics
Let X represent the number of heads
6 X „ Bp15, 0.5q.

(b) exactly 8 heads,

Dr Oliver
Find the probability that Sue records
(2)

Solution Mathematics
PpX “ 8q “ PpX ď 8q ´ PpX ď 7q
“ 0.6964 ´ 0.5000 (from the tables)
“ 0.1964.
Dr Oliver
(c) at least 4 heads.
Mathematics (2)

Solution
PpX ě 4q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 3q
“ 1 ´ 0.0176 (from the tables)
Dr Oliver“ 0.9824.

Mathematics 15
 Dr Oliver
18. A factory produces components of which 1% are defective. The components are packed
in boxes of 10. A box is selected at random.
Mathematics
(a) Find the probability that the box contains exactly one defective component. (2)

Solution
Let X represent the number of defective components 6 X „ Bp10, 0.01q.

Dr Oliver
ˆ ˙
10
PpX “ 1q “ p0.01q1 p0.99q9
1

Mathematics “ 0.091 351 772 475 (FCD)

“ 0.0914 (4 dp).

(b) Find the probability that there are at least 2 defective components in the box. (3)

Solution Dr Oliver
Mathematics
PpX ě 2q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 1q
10
ˆ ˙
10
“ 1 ´ p0.99q ´ p0.01q1 p0.99q9
1
“ 0.004 266 200 243 (FCD)
“ 0.0043 (4 dp).
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
(c) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that a batch of 250 components
contains between 1 and 4 (inclusive) defective components.
(4)

Solution
Let Y represent the number of defective components of 250 6 Y „ Bp250, 0.01q.
Now,
Dr Oliver
EpY q “ 250 ˆ 0.01 “ 2.5 and VarpY q “ 250 ˆ 0.01 ˆ 0.99 “ 2.475;

Mathematics
the expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p) so we
try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop2.5q. Then

Pp1 ď Y ď 4q “ PpY ď 4q ´ PpY “ 0q

“ 0.8912 ´ 0.0821 (from the tables)

Dr Oliver
“ 0.8091.

Mathematics 16
 Dr Oliver
19. A bag contains a large number of counters of which 15% are coloured red. A random
sample of 30 counters is selected and the number of red counters is recorded.
Mathematics
(a) Find the probability of no more than 6 red counters in this sample. (2)

Solution
Let X represent the number of red counters 6 X „ Bp30, 0.15q. Then

Dr Oliver
PpX ď 6q “ 0.8474 (from the tables).

Mathematics
A second random sample of 30 counters is selected and the number of red counters is
recorded.
(b) Using a Poisson approximation, estimate the probability that the total number of (3)
red counters in the combined sample of size 60 is less than 13.

Solution Dr Oliver
Let Y represent the number of red counters 6 Y „ Bp60, 0.15q. Now,
Mathematics
EpY q “ 60 ˆ 0.15 “ 9 and VarpY q “ 60 ˆ 0.15 ˆ 0.85 “ 7.65;

the expectation and the variance are roughly equal (large n and small p) so we
try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop9q. Then

Dr Oliver
PpY ă 13q “ PpY ď 12q
“ 0.8758 (from the tables).

Mathematics
20. A manufacturer supplies DVD players to retailers in batches of 20. It has 5% of the
players returned because they are faulty.
(a) Write down a suitable model for the distribution of the number of faulty DVD (2)
players in a batch. Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of faulty DVD players 6 X „ Bp20, 0.05q.

Find the probability that a batch contains

Dr Oliver
(b) no faulty DVD players, (2)

Mathematics 17
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
PpX “ 0q “ p0.95q20
“ 0.358 485 922 4 (FCD)
“ 0.3585 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
(c) more than 4 faulty DVD players. (2)

Solution Mathematics
PpX ą 4q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 4q
“ 1 ´ 0.9974 (from the tables)

Dr Oliver
“ 0.0026.

Mathematics
(d) Find the mean and variance of the number of faulty DVD players in a batch. (2)

Solution
EpXq “ 20 ˆ 0.05 “ 1
VarpXq “ 20 ˆ 0.05 ˆ 0.95 “ 0.95
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
21. Bhim and Joe play each other at badminton and for each game, independently of all
others, the probability that Bhim loses is 0.2.

Find the probability that, in 9 games, Bhim loses

(a) exactly 3 of the games, (3)

Solution Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of Bhim loses 6 X „ Bp9, 0.2q. Then
Mathematics
PpX “ 3q “ PpX ď 3q ´ PpX ď 2q
“ 0.9144 ´ 0.7382 (from the tables)
“ 0.1762.

Dr Oliver
(b) fewer than half of the games. (2)

Mathematics 18
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
PpX ě 4q “ 0.9804 (from the tables)

Bhim attends coaching sessions for 2 months. After completing the coaching, the prob-
ability that he loses each game, independently of all others, is 0.05.

Dr Oliver
Bhim and Joe agree to play a further 60 games.
(c) Calculate the mean and variance for the number of these 60 games that Bhim loses. (2)
Mathematics
Solution
Let Y represent the number of Bhim loses 6 Y „ Bp60, 0.05q.
EpY q “ 60 ˆ 0.05 “ 3

Dr Oliver
VarpY q “ 60 ˆ 0.05 ˆ 0.95 “ 2.85

4 games. Mathematics
(d) Using a suitable approximation calculate the probability that Bhim loses more than (3)

Solution
The expectation and the variance are roughly equal (large n and small p) so we

Dr Oliver
try the Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop3q. Then

PpY ą 4q “ 1 ´ PpY ě 4q

Mathematics
“ 1 ´ 0.8153 (from the tables)
“ 0.1847.

22. A disease occurs in 3% of a population.

Dr Oliver
(a) State any assumptions that are required to model the number of people with the (2)
disease in a random sample of size n as a binomial distribution.

Solution
Mathematics
e.g., constant probability of success, fixed number of trials, independent trials,
success and failure

Dr Oliver
(b) Using this model, find the probability of exactly 2 people having the disease in a
random sample of 10 people.
(3)

Mathematics 19
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of the diseased people 6 X „ Bp10, 0.03q. Then
ˆ ˙
10
PpX “ 2q “ p0.03q2 p0.97q8
2
“ 0.031 741 606 06 (FCD)
Dr Oliver “ 0.0317 (4 dp).

Mathematics
(c) Find the mean and variance of the number of people with the disease in a random (2)
sample of 100 people.

Solution

Dr Oliver
EpXq “ 10 ˆ 0.03 “ 0.3.
VarpXq “ 10 ˆ 0.03 ˆ 0.97 “ 0.291.

Mathematics
A doctor tests a random sample of 100 patients for the disease. He decides to offer all
patients a vaccination to protect them from the disease if more than 5 of the sample
have the disease.
(d) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that the doctor will offer all (3)

Dr Oliver
patients a vaccination.

Solution
Mathematics
Let Y represent the number of diseased people 6 Y „ Bp100, 0.03q. The expec-
tation and the variance are roughly equal (large n and small p) so we try the
Poisson distribution 6 Y «„ Pop3q. Then

PpY ą 5q “ 1 ´ PpY ď 5q

Dr Oliver“ 1 ´ 0.9161 (from the tables)

“ 0.0839.

Mathematics
23. The probability of an electrical component being defective is 0.075.
The component is supplied in boxes of 120.
(a) Using a suitable approximation, estimate the probability that there are more than (5)

Dr Oliver
3 defective components in a box.

Mathematics 20
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of defective components 6 X „ Bp120, 0.075q.
Now,

EpXq “ 120 ˆ 0.075 “ 9 and VarpXq “ 120 ˆ 0.075 ˆ 0.925 “ 8.325;

the expectation and the variance are roughly equal (large n and small p) so we
Dr Oliver
try the Poisson distribution 6 X «„ Pop9q. Now,

Mathematics
PpX ą 3q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 3q
“ 1 ´ 0.0212 (from the tables)
“ 0.9788.

Dr Oliver
A retailer buys 2 boxes of components.
(b) Estimate the probability that there are at least 4 defective components in each box. (2)
Mathematics
Solution
Pptwo boxesq “ 0.97882 “ 0.958 049 44.

Poisson distribution.
Dr Oliver
24. Write down two conditions needed to approximate the binomial distribution by the (2)

Solution
Mathematics
The expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p)

Dr Oliver
25. In a large restaurant an average of 3 out of every 5 customers ask for water with their
meal.

Mathematics
A random sample of 10 customers is selected.
(a) Find the probability that
(i) exactly 6 ask for water with their meal, (2)

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of who want water 6 X „ Bp10, 0.6q
Let Y represent the number of who do not want water 6 Y „ Bp10, 0.4q

Mathematics 21
 Dr Oliver
Now,
Mathematics
PpX “ 6q “ PpY “ 4q
“ PpY ď 4q ´ PpY ď 3q
“ 0.6331 ´ 0.3823 (from the tables)
“ 0.2508,
Dr Oliver
‘reversing’ the table.

Mathematics
(ii) less than 9 ask for water with their meal (3)

Solution

PpX ă 9q “ PpX ď 8q

Dr Oliver “ PpY ě 2q
“ 1 ´ PpY ď 1q
“ 1 ´ 0.0464 (from the tables)
Mathematics “ 0.9536.

A second random sample of 50 customers is selected.

Dr Oliver
(b) Find the smallest value of n such that
PpX ă nq ě 0.9,
(3)

Mathematics
where the random variable X represents the number of these customers who ask
for water.

Solution
Let X represent the number of who want water 6 X „ Bp50, 0.6q
Let Y represent the number of who do not want water 6 Y „ Bp50, 0.4q
Dr Oliver
PpX ă nq ě 0.9 ñ PpY ą 50 ´ nq ě 0.9

Mathematics ñ PpY ď 50 ´ nq ď 0.1

ñ 50 ´ n ď 15
ñ n ě 35;

n “ 35 because PpY “ 14q “ 0.0955 and PpY “ 15q “ 0.1561.

Dr Oliver
26. (a) Write down the conditions under which the Poisson distribution can be used as an (2)
approximation to the binomial distribution.
Mathematics 22
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
The expectation and the variance are almost equal (large n and small p)

The probability of any one letter being delivered to the wrong house is 0.01.
On a randomly selected day Peter delivers 1000 letters.

Dr Oliver
(b) Using a Poisson approximation, find the probability that Peter delivers at least
4 letters to the wrong house.
(3)

Mathematics
Give your answer to 4 decimal places.

Solution
1000 ˆ 0.01 “ 10 and so we have X „ Pop10q.

PpX ě 4q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 3q
Dr Oliver“ 1 ´ 0.0103 (from the tables)
“ 0.9897.
Mathematics
27. A random variable X has the distribution Bp12, pq.
(a) Given that p “ 0.25, find
(i) PpX ă 5q,

Solution
Dr Oliver (1)

Mathematics
PpX ă 5q “ PpX ď 4q
“ 0.8424 (from the tables).

(ii) PpX ě 7q.

Solution
Dr Oliver (2)

Mathematics
PpX ě 7q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 6q
“ 1 ´ 0.9857 (from the tables)
“ 0.0143.

Dr Oliver
(b) Given that PpX “ 0q “ 0.05, find the value of p to 3 decimal places. (3)

Mathematics 23
 Dr Oliver
Solution
Mathematics
PpX “ 0q “ 0.05 ñ p1 ´ pq12 “ 0.05
?
12
ñ 1 ´ p “ 0.05
?
12
ñ p “ 1 ´ 0.05

Dr Oliver ñ p “ 0.220 922 191 9 (FCD)

ñ p “ 0.221 (3 dp).

Mathematics
(c) Given that the variance of X is 1.92, find the possible values of p. (4)

Solution

Dr Oliver
12pp1 ´ pq “ 1.92 ñ 12p ´ 12p2 “ 1.92
ñ 12p2 ´ 12p ` 1.92 “ 0

Mathematics ñ 25p2 ´ 25p ` 4 “ 0

ñ p5p ´ 1qp5p ´ 4q “ 0
ñ 5p “ 1 or 5p “ 4
ñ p “ 0.2 or p “ 0.8.

Dr Oliver
28. A telesales operator is selling a magazine. Each day he chooses a number of people to
Mathematics
telephone. The probability that each person he telephones buys the magazine is 0.1.
(a) Suggest a suitable distribution to model the number of people who buy the magazine (1)
from the telesales operator each day.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of who want to subscribe 6 X „ Bpn, 0.1q

Mathematics
(b) On Monday, the telesales operator telephones 10 people. Find the probability that
he sells at least 4 magazines.
(3)

Solution

Dr Oliver
Mathematics 24
 Dr Oliver
X „ Bp10, 0.1q:
Mathematics
PpX ě 4q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 3q
“ 1 ´ 0.9872 (from the tables)
“ 0.0128.

Dr Oliver
(c) Calculate the least number of people he needs to telephone on Tuesday, so that the (3)
probability of selling at least 1 magazine, on that day, is greater than 0.95.

Solution
Mathematics
X „ Bpn, 0.1q:

Ppat least oneq ě 0.95 ñ 1 ´ 0.9n ě 0.95

Dr Oliver ñ 0.9n ă 0.05
ñ n log 0.9 ă log 0.05

Mathematics ñną
log 0.05
log 0.9
ñ n ą 28.433 158 (FCD)

and it is n “ 29.

Dr Oliver
A call centre also sells the magazine. The probability that a telephone call made by the
call centre sells a magazine is 0.05. The call centre telephones 100 people every hour.

Mathematics
(d) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that more than 10 people
telephoned by the call centre buy a magazine in a randomly chosen hour.
(3)

Solution
Let Y represent the number of who want to subscribe by telephone

Dr Oliver
6 Y „ Bp100, 0.05q. Now,

EpY q “ 100 ˆ 0.05 “ 5 and VarpXq “ 100 ˆ 0.05 ˆ 0.95 “ 4.75;

Mathematics
the expectation and the variance are roughly equal (large n and small p) so we
try the Poisson distribution:

PpY ą 10q “ 1 ´ PpY ď 10q

“ 1 ´ 0.9863 (from the tables)

Dr Oliver“ 0.0137.

Mathematics 25
 Dr Oliver
29. As part of a selection procedure for a company, applicants have to answer all 20 questions
of a multiple choice test. If an applicant chooses answers at random the probability of
Mathematics
choosing a correct answer is 0.2 and the number of correct answers is represented by the
random variable X.
(a) Suggest a suitable distribution for X. (2)

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number who guessed 6 X „ Bp20, 0.2q

Mathematics
Each applicant gains 4 points for each correct answer but loses 1 point for each incorrect
answer. The random variable S represents the final score, in points, for an applicant
who chooses answers to this test at random.
(b) Show that S “ 5X ´ 20. (2)

Solution
Dr Oliver
S “ 4 ˆ X ´ 1 ˆ p20 ´ Xq “ 5X ´ 20.

(c) Find EpSq and VarpSq.Mathematics (4)

Solution

EpXq “ 20 ˆ 0.2 ñ EpXq “ 4

Dr Oliver ñ EpSq “ Ep5X ´ 20q
ñ EpSq “ 5 EpXq ´ 20
Mathematics ñ EpSq “ 5 ˆ 4 ´ 20
ñ EpSq “ 0

and

Dr Oliver
VarpXq “ 20 ˆ 0.2 ˆ 0.8 ñ VarpXq “ 3.2
ñ VarpSq “ Varp5X ´ 20q
ñ VarpSq “ Varp5Xq
Mathematics ñ VarpSq “ 52 VarpXq
ñ VarpSq “ 25 ˆ 3.2
ñ VarpSq “ 80.

Dr Oliver
An applicant who achieves a score of at least 20 points is invited to take part in the final
stage of the selection process.
Mathematics 26
 (d) Find PpS ě 20q.
Dr Oliver (4)

Solution
Now,
Mathematics
S ě 20 ñ 5X ´ 20 ě 20
ñ 5X ě 40
Dr Oliver ñXě8

and
Mathematics
PpX ě 8q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 7q
“ 1 ´ 0.9679 (from the tables)
“ 0.0321.

Dr Oliver
Cameron is taking the final stage of the selection process which is a multiple choice test
Mathematics
consisting of 100 questions. He has been preparing for this test and believes that his
chance of answering each question correctly is 0.4.
(e) Using a suitable approximation, estimate the probability that Cameron answers (5)
more than half of the questions correctly.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let Y represent the number who guessed 6 Y „ Bp100, 0.4q. Now,

Mathematics
EpY q “ 100 ˆ 0.4 “ 40 and VarpXq “ 100 ˆ 0.4 ˆ 0.6 “ 24;

np “ 40 and nq “ 24 so we use a normal approximation: Y «„ Np40, 24q. Then

PpY ą 50q “ PpY ą 50.5q

“ 1 ´ PpY ď 50.5q
Dr Oliver ˆ
“1´P Z ď ?
50.5 ´ 40
˙

24
Mathematics“ 1 ´ Φ p2.14q
“ 1 ´ 0.9838 (from the tables)
“ 0.0162.

Dr Oliver
30. A cadet fires shots at a target at distances ranging from 25 m to 90 m. The probability

Mathematics 27
 Dr Oliver
of hitting the target with a single shot is p. When firing from a distance d m,

Mathematicsp“ 3
200
p90 ´ dq.

Each shot is fired independently.

The cadet fires 10 shots from a distance of 40 m.

Dr Oliver
(a) (i) Find the probability that exactly 6 shots hit the target. (3)

Solution
Mathematics
Let X represent the number of shots which hit the target 6 X „ Bp40, 0.75q
Let Y represent the number of shots which miss the target 6 Y „ Bp40, 0.25q
Then

PpX “ 6q “ PpY “ 4q
“ PpY ď 4q ´ PpY ď 3q
Dr Oliver
“ 0.9219 ´ 0.7759 (from the tables)
“ 0.1460.
Mathematics
(ii) Find the probability that at least 8 shots hit the target. (2)

Solution

Dr Oliver
PpX ě 8q “ PpY ď 2q
“ 0.5256 (from the tables)
Mathematics
The cadet fires 20 shots from a distance of x m.
(b) Find, to the nearest integer, the value of x if the cadet has an 80% chance of hitting (4)

Dr Oliver
the target at least once.

Solution
Mathematics

Dr Oliver
Mathematics 28
 Dr Oliver
Ppat least oneq “ 0.80 ñ Ppmiss every timeq “ 0.20
Mathematics “
ñ 1 ´ 200 3
‰20
p90 ´ xq “ 0.2
?
3 20
ñ 1 ´ 200 p90 ´ xq “ 0.2
3
?
20
ñ 200 p90 ´ xq “ 1 ´ 0.2
´ ? ¯
ñ 90 ´ x “ 200
20
1 0.2
Dr Oliver 3

200
´
ñ x “ 90 ´ 3 1 ´ 0.2
´
? ¯
20

Mathematics ñ x “ 84.845 388 97 (FCD)

ñ x “ 85 (2 sf).

Dr Oliver
The cadet fires 100 shots from 25 m.
(c) Using a suitable approximation, estimate the probability that at least 95 of these (5)
shots hit the target.

Solution
Mathematics
Let A represent the number of shots which hit the target 6 A „ Bp100, 0.975q
Let B represent the number of shots which do not hit the target
6 B „ Bp100, 0.025q
Now,
Dr Oliver
EpBq “ 100 ˆ 0.025 “ 2.5 and VarpXq “ 100 ˆ 0.025 ˆ 0.975 “ 2.4375;
Mathematics
the expectation and the variance are roughly equal (large n and small p) so we
try the Poisson distribution. Then

PpA ě 95q “ PpB ď 5q

“ 0.9580 (from the tables).
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
31. State the conditions under which the normal distribution may be used as an approxima-
tion to the binomial distribution.
(2)

Solution
n is large
p is close to 0.5
Dr Oliver
Mathematics 29
 Dr Oliver
32. A bag contains a large number of counters. Each counter has a single digit number on it
and the mean of all the numbers in the bag is the unknown parameter µ. The number 2
Mathematics
is on 40% of the counters and the number 5 is on 25% of the counters. All the remaining
counters have numbers greater than 5 on them.

The random variable T represents the number of counters in a random sample of 10 with
the number 2 on them.

Dr Oliver
(a) Specify the sampling distribution of T . (2)

Solution
T „ Bp10, 0.4q. Mathematics
The counters are selected one by one.
(b) Find the probability that the third counter selected is the first counter with the (2)
number 2 on it. Dr Oliver
Solution
MathematicsPp2, 2, 2q “ 3
ˆ 35 ˆ 2
5 5
18
“ 125
.

Dr Oliver
33. The proportion of houses in Radville which are unable to receive digital radio is 25%. (3)
In a survey of a random sample of 30 houses taken from Radville, the number, X, of
Mathematics
houses which are unable to receive digital radio is recorded.

Find Pp5 ď X ă 11q.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Pp5 ď X ă 11q “ PpX ď 10q ´ PpX ď 4q
Mathematics
“ 0.8943 ´ 0.0979 (from the tables)
“ 0.7964.

Dr Oliver
34. In a region of the UK, 5% of people have red hair. In a random sample of size n, taken
from this region, the expected number of people with red hair is 3.

Mathematics 30
 Dr Oliver
(a) Calculate the value of n. (2)

Solution Mathematics
Let X represent the number of red hair persons 6 X „ Bpn, 0.05q. Then

PpX “ nq “ 3 ñ 0.05n “ 3
ñ n “ 60.
Dr Oliver
Mathematics
A random sample of 20 people is taken from this region.
Find the probability that
(b) (i) exactly 4 of these people have red hair, (3)

Solution
We use X „ Bp20, 0.05q
Dr Oliver
PpX “ 4q “ PpX ď 4q ´ PpX ď 3q

Mathematics
“ 0.9974 ´ 0.9841 (from the tables)
“ 0.0133.

(ii) at least 4 of these people have red hair. (2)

Solution Dr Oliver
Mathematics
PpX ě 4q “ 1 ´ PpX ď 3q
“ 1 ´ 0.9841 (from the tables)
“ 0.0159.

Dr Oliver
35. In a large school, 20% of students own a touch screen laptop. A random sample of
n students is chosen from the school. Using a normal approximation, the probability
(8)

Mathematics
that more than 55 of these n students own a touch screen laptop is 0.0401, correct to 3
significant figures.

Find the value of n.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Mathematics 31
 Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of students own a touch screen laptop 6 X „ Bpn, 0.2q.
Mathematics
We are directed to use the normal approximation:

EpXq “ n ˆ 0.2 “ 0.2n and VarpXq “ n ˆ 0.2 ˆ 0.8 “ 0.16n;

therefore, 6 X «„ Np0.2n, 0.16nq. Then

Dr Oliver
PpX ą 55q “ 0.0401 ñ PpX ą 55.5q “ 0.0401
ñ 1 ´ PpX ď 55.5q “ 0.0401

Mathematics ñ PpX ď 55.5q “ 0.9599

ñP
ˆ
55.5 ´ 0.2n
?
˙
“ 0.9599
0.16n
55.5 ´ 0.2n
ñ ? “ 1.75
0.16n
?
Dr Oliver ñ 55.5 ´ 0.2n “ 0.7 n
?
ñ 0.2n ` 0.7 n ´ 55.5 “ 0
?
Mathematics ñ 2n ` 7 n ´ 555 “ 0
` ?
ñ 2 n ` 37
?
˘ `? ˘
n ´ 15 “ 0
ñ n “ 15 (only)
ñ n “ 225.

Dr Oliver
36. 10% of people take less than 12 minutes to complete the test.
Mathematics
Graham selects 15 people at random.
(a) Find the probability that fewer than 2 of these people will take less than 12 minutes (3)
to complete the test.

Solution
Dr Oliver
Let X represent the number of students who take less than 12 minutes to com-
plete the test 6 X „ Bp15, 0.1q.

Mathematics
PpX ď 1q “ p0.9q `15
ˆ ˙
15
1
p0.9q14 p0.1q

“ 0.549 043 018 9 (FCD)

“ 0.5490 (4 dp).

Dr Oliver
Mathematics 32
 Dr Oliver
Jovanna takes a random sample of n people. Using a normal approximation, the proba-
bility that fewer than 9 of these n people will take less than 12 minutes to complete the

(b) Find the value of n.

Mathematics
test is 0.3085 to 4 decimal places.
(8)

Solution
We are directed to use the normal approximation:
Dr Oliver
EpXq “ n ˆ 0.1 “ 0.1n and VarpXq “ n ˆ 0.1 ˆ 0.9 “ 0.09n;

Mathematics
therefore, 6 X «„ Np0.1n, 0.09nq. Then

PpX ă 9q “ 0.3085 ñ PpX ă 8.5q “ 0.3085

ˆ ˙
8.5 ´ 0.1n
ñP ? “ 0.3085
0.09n

Dr Oliver ñ
8.5 ´ 0.1n
?
0.3 n
“ ´0.5
?
ñ 8.5 ´ 0.1n “ ´0.15 n
Mathematics ?
ñ 0.1n ´ 0.15 n ´ 8.5 “ 0
?
ñ 2n ´ 3 n ´ 170 “ 0
` ? ˘ `? ˘
ñ 2 n ` 17 n ´ 10 “ 0
?
ñ n “ 10 (only)

Dr Oliver ñ n “ 100.

Mathematics

Dr Oliver
Mathematics

Dr Oliver
Mathematics 33