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 1
2 International Conflict Mediation
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3 This book examines how new empirical approaches to mediation can shed
4 fresh light on the effectiveness of different patterns of conflict manage-
5 ment, and offers guidelines on the process of international mediation.
6 International conflict mediation has become one of, if not the most
7 prominent and important conflict resolution methods of the early twenty-
8 first century. This book argues that traditional approaches to understanding
9 mediation have been inadequate, and that in order to really understand
0 how the process of international mediation works, studies need to operate
1 within an explicit theoretical framework, adopt systematic empirical
2 approaches and use a diversity of methods to identify critical interactions,
3 contexts and relationships. This book captures recent important changes
4 in the field of international conflict mediation and includes chapters by
5 leading scholars on a variety of critical aspects of conflict management,
6 using state-of-the-art analytical tools and up-to-date data.
7 This book will be of great interest to scholars of peace and conflict
8 studies, methods in social science and of international relations in general.
9
0 Jacob Bercovitch is Professor of International Relations at the University
1 of Canterbury, New Zealand, and is the author and editor of many books
2 and numerous articles on international conflict resolution. Scott Sigmund
3 Gartner is Professor of Political Science at the University of California,
4 Davis, USA.
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Series: security and conflict management 2
Series Editors: Fen Osler Hampson 3
Carleton University, Canada 4
Chester Crocker 5
Georgetown University, Washington DC 6
7
Pamela Aall
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United States Institute of Peace, Washington DC
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This series will publish the best work in the field of security studies and 1
conflict management. In particular, it will promote leading-edge work that 1
straddles the divides between conflict management and security studies, 1
between academics and practitioners and between disciplines. 1
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1 Negotiation and Conflict Management 1
I. William Zartman 1
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2 Conflict Management and African Politics 2
Negotiation, mediation, and politics 2
Edited by Terrence Lyons and Gilbert M. Khadiagala 2
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3 International Conflict Mediation 2
New approaches and findings 2
Edited by Jacob Bercovitch and Scott Sigmund Gartner 2
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2 International Conflict
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Mediation
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First published 2009
by Routledge
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2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 1
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada 1
by Routledge 1
270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016 1
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business 1
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008. 1
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s 1
collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” 2
© 2009 Selection and editorial matter, Jacob Bercovitch and Scott 2
Sigmund Gartner; individual chapters, the contributors 2
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or 2
reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, 2
or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
2
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. 2
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data 2
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library 2
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 2
International conflict mediation : new approaches and findings / 3
edited by Jacob Bercovitch and Scott Sigmund Gartner.
p. cm. – (Security conflict and management ; 3)
3
Includes bibliographical references. 3
1. Conflict management–International cooperation. I. Bercovitch, 3
Jacob. II. Gartner, Scott Sigmund, 1963–
JZ6368.I574 2009
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327.1'72–dc22 3
2008026161 3
ISBN 0-203-88513-9 Master e-book ISBN 3
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ISBN10: 0-415-45309-7 (hbk)
ISBN10: 0-203-88513-9 (ebk) 4
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ISBN13: 978-0-415-45309-7 (hbk) 4
ISBN13: 978-0-203-88513-0 (ebk)
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2 Contents
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3 List of figures x
4 List of tables xi
5 Notes on contributors xiii
6 Acknowledgments xviii
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1 New approaches, methods and findings in the
9
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study of mediation 1
JACOB BERCOVITCH AND SCOTT SIGMUND GARTNER
1
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3 PART I
4
Mediation strategy 17
5
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7 2 Is there method in the madness of mediation?
8 Some lessons for mediators from quantitative
9 studies of mediation 19
0 JACOB BERCOVITCH AND SCOTT SIGMUND GARTNER
1
2 3 Third-party intermediaries and negotiated
3 settlements, 1946–2000 43
4 DERRICK V. FRAZIER AND WILLIAM J. DIXON
5
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7 PART II
8 Mediator type 67
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40 Bias and information
41
42 4 Credibility and strategy in international mediation 69
43 ZEEV MAOZ AND LESLEY G. TERRIS
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viii Contents
5 Mediator types and the effectiveness of 1
information-provision strategies in the resolution 2
of international conflict 96 3
BURCU SAVUN 4
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UN and neutrality 6
7
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6 Guaranteeing peace: the credibility of third-party
9
mediators in civil wars 115 1
ISAK SVENSSON 1
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7 Choosing sides: UN resolutions and non-neutrality 135 1
MICHELLE BENSON AND NIL S. SATANA 1
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PART III 1
Dispute and crisis types 157 1
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8 Softening up: making conflicts more amenable 2
to diplomacy 159 2
J. MICHAEL GREIG AND PAUL F. DIEHL 2
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9 Power play: mediation in symmetric and asymmetric 2
international crises 187 2
2
DAVID QUINN, JONATHAN WILKENFELD, KATHLEEN
2
SMARICK AND VICTOR ASAL
2
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10 Protracted conflict and crisis mediation: 3
a contingency approach 216 3
DAVID CARMENT, YIAGADEESEN SAMY AND 3
SOULEIMA EL ACHKAR 3
3
3
PART IV 3
The conflict management environment 241 3
3
11 Practicing democratic community norms: third-party 3
conflict management and successful settlements 243 4
SARA MCLAUGHLIN MITCHELL, KELLY M. KADERA AND 4
MARK J.C. CRESCENZI 4
4
4
4
 Contents ix
1 12 Philippine and Taiwanese legal mediation 265
2 JAMES A. WALL, WAN YAN, TSUNGTING CHUNG AND
3 DANIEL DRUCKMAN
4
5
6 PART V
7 Data 285
8
9 13 Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO):
0 an event data framework for a post-Cold War world 287
1 DEBORAH J. GERNER, PHILIP A. SCHRODT AND
2
ÖMÜR YILMAZ
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5 Index 305
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Figures 2
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3.1 Frequency of intermediary interventions per year 1
by type, 1946–2000 47 1
4.1 The conflict game in extensive form 72 1
4.2 The invitation game 74 1
4.3 The mediation game 77 1
6.1 Promised guarantees and types of agreement 125 1
8.1 A model of softening up 167 1
12.1 The mediation process 266 2
12.2 Enhanced cultural effects model 267 2
13.1 Comparison of CAMEO mediation events and WEIS 2
mediation patterns 298 2
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3 2.1 Mediator attributes 23
4 2.2 Mediation and the likelihood of an agreement –
5 mediated or negotiated conflict management efforts 32
6 2.3 The effect of mediation attributes on dichotomous
7 outcomes 33
8 2.4a Multinomial logit analysis of mediator attributes on
9 conflict management in high-intensity disputes 35
0 2.4b Multinomial logit analysis of mediator attributes on
1 conflict management in low-intensity disputes 36
2 2.5 Dichotomous analyses of mediation outcomes 38
3 3.1 Frequencies of specific third-party intermediaries by
4 type, 1946–2000 48
5 3.2 Categories of third-party intermediary interventions 53
6 3.3 The effect of third-party intermediaries on negotiated
7 settlements 57
8 3.4 Types of third parties and management of negotiated
9 settlements 57
0 3.5 Predicted probabilities of negotiated settlement by
1 actor and type 58
2 4.1 Probability of winning and the likelihood of mediation,
3 probit analysis of MIDs, 1945–1995 87
4 4.2 Mediator’s credibility and intrusiveness of mediation:
5 multinomial logit analysis of MIDs, 1945–1995 87
6 4.3 Mediator’s credibility and the outcome of mediation:
7 Heckman selection probit analysis of MIDs, 1945–1995 88
8 4.4 Mediator’s credibility and mediation outcomes:
9 multinomial logit analysis of MIDs, 1945–1995 89
40 5.1 Censored probit model of state mediation success –
41 hypothesis 1 107
42 5.2 Censored probit model of mediation success –
43 hypothesis 2 109
44 6.1 Probit estimates on promised and supplied guarantees 126
45 6.2 Requests for, and promises of, guarantees 128
xii Tables
6A.1 List of guarantees 130 1
7.1 Security Council peacemaking/mediation 2
resolutions (1945–2001) 144 3
7.2 Negative binomial regression of the intensity of 4
Security Council resolutions biased against the 5
initiator (1946–2001) 149 6
7.3 Negative binomial regression of intensity of Security 7
Council resolutions biased against the target (1946–2001) 150 8
8.1 Conflict management onset 176 9
8.2 Marginal effects for conflict management onset 177 1
9.1 Power relations and mediation in international crises, 1
1918–2003 189 1
9.2 Logit models of the effects of mediation, mediation 1
styles and power on formal agreements 200 1
9.3 Logit models of the effects of mediation, mediation 1
styles and power on tension reduction 201 1
9.4 First differences in predicted probabilities of formal 1
agreement 202 1
9.5 First differences in predicted probabilities of tension 1
reduction 203 2
10A.1 Overall sample data 234 2
10A.2 PC sub-sample data 235 2
10A.3 Logit results – model 1, formal outcome (dependent 2
variable): overall sample 236 2
10A.4 Logit results – model 1, formal outcome (dependent 2
variable): protracted 2
conflict sub-sample 237 2
11.1 Summary statistics for ICOW claim data 253 2
11.2 Third-party settlement attempts 257 2
12.1 Mediators’ techniques 276 3
12.2 A sample of community disputes 278 3
12.3 Mean use of mediation techniques 279 3
13.1 CAMEO datasets and dyadic subsets 297 3
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 1
2 Contributors
3
4
5
6
7
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0
1
2
3 Editors
4
Jacob Bercovitch is Professor of International Relations at the School of
5
Political Science and Communication at the University of Canterbury,
6
in Christchurch, New Zealand. He has written extensively on mediation
7
for more than 20 years and has published papers on this subject in
8
most of the leading journals in the field.
9
0 Scott Sigmund Gartner is Professor of Political Science at the University of
1 California, Davis. He is author of Strategic Assessment in War and co-
2 editor of The Historical Statistics of the United States, and has published on
3 international politics in a variety of journals that include: The American
4 Political Science Review, The American Sociological Review, The Journal of Poli-
5 tics, International Studies Quarterly and the Journal of Conflict Resolution.
6
7
Contributors
8
9 Victor Asal is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Rockefeller
0 College, University at Albany, SUNY. He specializes in ethnic conflict
1 and terrorism as well as international crisis behavior and the uses of
2 simulation and experimental approaches for research and education.
3
Michelle Benson is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political
4
Science at the University at Buffalo, SUNY. She is particularly interested
5
in researching the determinants of international and domestic conflict.
6
More recently her work has focused on how state preferences influence
7
international conflict and how state preferences within international
8
governmental organizations affect their behavior. Her work has been
9
published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Comparative Political
40
Studies, the Journal of Peace Research, International Interactions, Conflict
41
Management and Peace Science and Social Science Quarterly, among others.
42
43 David Carment is Professor of International Affairs at the Norman Paterson
44 School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa. He is the
45 principal investigator for the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy
xiv Contributors
(CIFP) project. Carment’s most recent work focuses on developing failed 1
state risk assessment and early warning methodologies evaluating models 2
of third-party intervention. He is a Fellow at the Canadian Defence and 3
Foreign Affairs Institute and was the Director of the Centre for Security 4
and Defence Studies at Carleton University. His recent books include 5
Peacekeeping Intelligence: New Players, Extended Boundaries (2006). 6
7
Tsungting Chung is Associate Professor in the Department of Business
8
Administration, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology,
9
Yunlin, Taiwan. He is the author of a newly published book on inter-
1
national negotiation (in Chinese) and is currently working on invest-
1
ment and transaction negotiations.
1
Mark J.C. Crescenzi is currently Associate Professor of Political Science at 1
the University of North Carolina. He received his PhD from the Uni- 1
versity of Illinois in 2000. He is the author of a book on economic 1
interdependence and international conflict (Lexington, 2005) as well 1
as journal articles in the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal 1
of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, the Journal of Conflict Resolution 1
and others. His work focuses on the role of reputation in the onset of 1
militarized violence, the impact of historical conflict on future viol- 2
ence, the importance of the democratic community in the democratic 2
peace and the ties between economic interdependence and political 2
violence. 2
2
Paul F. Diehl is Henning Larsen Professor of Political Science at the
2
University of Illinois and Director of the Correlates of War Project.
2
William J. Dixon is Professor and Department Head of Political Science 2
at the University of Arizona. Professor Dixon’s recent research has 2
focused on international conflict and conflict management and on the 2
role of domestic governing institutions on international relations. His 3
articles have appeared in a variety of journals such as International 3
Organization, the Journal of Conflict Resolution and American Political 3
Science Review. 3
3
Daniel Druckman is Professor in the Department of Public and Inter-
3
national Affairs at George Mason University and at the Australian
3
Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Queensland,
3
Brisbane. He received the 2003 Lifetime Achievement Award from the
3
International Association of Conflict Management and is currently
3
studying the relationship between principles of justice and the durabil-
4
ity of peace agreements.
4
Souleima El Achkar holds a Masters of Arts in Economics with a special- 4
ization in Econometrics from Concordia University in Montreal, and a 4
Masters of Arts in International Affairs with a specialization in Inter- 4
national Development from Carleton University in Ottawa. 4
 Contributors xv
1 Derrick V. Frazier is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Univer-
2 sity of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. His primary research has focused
3 on third-party mediation and conflict management. Other research
4 interests include regional security dynamics and US foreign policy as it
5 relates to international security.
6
The late Deborah J. Gerner was Professor of Political Science at the
7
University of Kansas. Her teaching and research interests focused on
8
the Middle East, mediation and conflict resolution. She is author of
9
One Land, Two Peoples: The Conflict Over Palestine (Westview, 1994) and
0
co-editor of Understanding the Contemporary Middle East (Rienner, 2004).
1
2 J. Michael Greig is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University
3 of North Texas. His work on conflict management has appeared in the
4 American Journal of Political Science, International Studies Quarterly, the
5 Journal of Conflict Resolution and the Journal of Politics. In addition to his
6 conflict management research, he is currently studying the con-
7 sequences of imposed polities in the international system.
8
Kelly M. Kadera is Professor of International Relations and Positive Polit-
9
ical Theory in the Department of Political Science at the University of
0
Iowa. She is the author of The Power-Conflict Story: A Dynamic Model of
1
Interstate Rivalry (2001), and of a variety of articles in refereed journals,
2
including the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Conflict
3
Resolution, Conflict Management and Peace Science and International Interac-
4
tions. She was the 2008 General Program Chair of the Annual Meeting
5
of the International Studies Association and is the founder, principal
6
investigator and co-convener of the “Journeys Workshop,” an annual
7
conference/workshop program held since 2004 to advance the career
8
development of women in International Relations.
9
0 Zeev Maoz is Professor of Political Science at the University of California,
1 Davis. He is the author of six books and over 75 articles on inter-
2 national relations, strategy and Middle East politics. His most recent
3 book, Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security and
4 Foreign Policy was published in 2006 by the University of Michigan Press.
5
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell is Associate Professor of Political Science at the
6
University of Iowa, and co-Director of the Issue Correlates of War
7
(ICOW) project (with Paul Hensel). She has published articles in
8
leading political science journals including the American Journal of Polit-
9
ical Science, the Journal of Politics, the Journal of Conflict Resolution and
40
International Studies Quarterly. Her areas of expertise include inter-
41
national conflict, conflict management, international institutions and
42
political methodology.
43
44 David Quinn is a PhD candidate at the University of Maryland, College
45 Park. His research focuses on ethnic and international conflict and
xvi Contributors
crisis, with a current concentration on self-determination movements 1
and international crisis mediation. 2
3
Yiagadeesen Samy is Assistant Professor of International Affairs at the
4
Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University,
5
Ottawa. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Ottawa
6
and his current research interests include trade and labor standards,
7
foreign direct investment, aid and debt relief and the determinants of
8
state fragility. His work (authored and co-authored) has been pub-
9
lished in several journals, including Applied Economics, the Journal
1
of International Trade and Economic Development, Perspectiva Magazine,
1
Canadian Foreign Policy and Foreign Policy Analysis.
1
Nil S. Satana is Assistant Professor at Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey. 1
She pursued her Master’s and Doctoral degrees at SUNY, Buffalo from 1
2001–2006. Her major research interests include third-party intervention 1
and mediation in civil and interstate conflict, as well as civil–military rela- 1
tions and the effect of religious fundamentalism in international relations. 1
She is also an area expert on conflict in the Middle East, specifically on 1
the Kurdish issue. 1
2
Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of
2
Pittsburgh. Her primary research focuses on conflict resolution. She
2
has published articles in the Journal of Politics and International Studies
2
Quarterly.
2
Philip A. Schrodt is Professor of Political Science at the University of 2
Kansas. His research focuses on the development of quantitative 2
methods for the analysis of political conflict. He has published over 2
80 articles in political science publications, including the American Poli- 2
tical Science Review, American Journal of Political Science and the Journal of 2
Conflict Resolution. 3
3
Kathleen (Young) Smarick is the Executive Director of the National Con-
3
sortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
3
(START), a US Department of Homeland Security Center of Excel-
3
lence based at the University of Maryland. Previously, Smarick served as
3
the Director of the ICONS Project international negotiation simulation
3
program. She has a PhD from the University of Maryland’s Department
3
of Government and Politics and her research focuses on state behavior
3
during times of crisis.
3
Isak Svensson, PhD, is Assistant Professor at the Department of Peace and 4
Conflict Research at Uppsala University, Sweden. His main area of 4
research is conflict resolution, in particular the role of mediation, 4
mediation bias, peace agreements and religious dimensions of armed 4
conflicts, utilizing statistical approaches. He has also done research on 4
the Norwegian mediation efforts in Sri Lanka. He has published studies 4
 Contributors xvii
1 in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, the Journal of Peace Research, Inter-
2 national Negotiations and Negotiation Journal.
3
Lesley G. Terris received her PhD in Political Science from Tel-Aviv Uni-
4
versity. Her research investigates international negotiation and media-
5
tion processes, while combining game-theoretic modeling with
6
quantitative and qualitative analysis. Her research interests also include
7
the study of international politics through simulations and network
8
analysis.
9
0 James A. Wall is a Curators’ Professor at the University of Missouri. He has
1 served as the President of the International Association of Conflict
2 Management and currently studies community mediation in various
3 countries.
4
Jonathan Wilkenfeld is Professor of Government and Politics and Director
5
of the Center for International Development and Conflict Manage-
6
ment at the University of Maryland. He specializes in foreign policy,
7
international conflict and crisis, mediation and the application of simu-
8
lation and experimental approaches in international politics. His most
9
recent books are A Study of Crisis (2000, with Michael Brecher) and
0
Mediating International Crises (2005, with Kathleen Smarick, David
1
Quinn and Victor Asal).
2
3 Wan Yan is a former employee of Deutsch Bank and is currently a PhD
4 candidate at the University of Missouri.
5
Ömür Yilmaz received her PhD in Political Science from the University of
6
Kansas. She is currently doing field research and working at KAMER
7
Foundation in Diyarbakir, Turkey. Her research interests include civil
8
conflict, social mobilization, contentious politics and gender politics.
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
40
41
42
43
44
45
Acknowledgments

This book is the product of many years of work by both of us into different
ways of thinking about conflict management. In its specific form, the book
had its origins in a special panel we helped to set up for the American
Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Washington, DC in 2005.
The success of the panel encouraged us to edit a special issue of Inter-
national Interactions on empirical approaches to mediation, and to expand
on that theme with this book.
Edited books can often be a source of much distress and disagreement.
We know very little about that. This book reflects a truly collaborative
effort between us, working across the vast Pacific Ocean, and the contribu-
tors, gathered from all parts of the world. All the contributors are close
friends or colleagues of ours with whom we have interacted at many meet-
ings, worked on different projects, and for whom we have the greatest
respect. That they all acceded to our demands for revisions, helped in
reviewing chapters, made any changes asked of them and did all of it in
good spirit, is a testament to their professionalism and experience. We are
truly grateful to each and every one of you.
We are thankful to Jacek Kugler and Yi Feng, the editors of Inter-
national Interactions, for encouraging us to edit a special issue of the
journal devoted to the theme of empirical approaches to mediation.
Thanks are due to Andrew Humphrys and his editorial team at Routledge.
They have been patient with us and never once lost faith in the project. They
prodded us when prodding was necessary, but they did it ever so judiciously
and kindly, We doubt we even realized we were being cajoled or pressured.
We have both been supported by the universities at which we teach and
work, Canterbury and Davis. We received research support from our respec-
tive offices, and we were able to meet several times, without once straining
the relations between us, at various locations in New Zealand and the US.
We would like to thank a number of individuals at Canterbury and
Davis for their help. People such as Jud Fretter, Terry Genet, Jill Dobly
and Molly Mellin deserve special and very public thanks.
We dedicate this book to those most in need of knowledge about effect-
ive conflict management in the world today: our young daughters.
1 New approaches, methods
and findings in the study
of mediation
Jacob Bercovitch and Scott Sigmund Gartner

One of the central issues in the study of the mediation of international

conflicts and crises, and indeed in many other aspects of the social sci-
ences, is how best to explain variance? Why do seemingly similar efforts
produce such markedly different outcomes? The usual temptation is to
fall back on idiosyncratic factors and explain observed variance with refer-
ence to personalities, unique circumstances, personal and perceptual
factors and other exceptional conditions. The central argument of this
book is that such efforts paint an incomplete picture of the conflict man-
agement process, and we do, in truth, have to explore variance in a much
more systematic manner. If we are to understand why some patterns of
conflict management work, or are effective, and others are not, we have to
operate within an explicit theoretical framework, adopt systematic empiri-
cal approaches (and there is a vast array of such approaches) and use a
diversity of methods to identify critical interactions, contexts and relation-
ships. Ideally, we would pursue these multiple objectives by also employ-
ing state-of-the-art methods and techniques. This is what we propose to do
in the chapters of this book.
Let us first start by looking at two major instances of international
mediation that have produced different results despite many similar fea-
tures. In September 1978, American President Carter invited President
Sadat of Egypt and Prime Minister Begin of Israel to his retreat at Camp
David. Closeted there for 13 days, Carter tirelessly mediated the issues in
dispute that had led to a number of costly conflicts and was largely instru-
mental in achieving a formal peace agreement between Israel and Egypt
that has lasted almost 20 years. In July 2000, US President Clinton invited
the President of the Palestinian Authority, Yasir Arafat, and the Prime
Minister of Israel, Ehud Barak, to Camp David to hammer out an agree-
ment between these two bitter enemies. Despite Clinton’s equally tireless
work, his mediation efforts failed. Clearly the issues, personalities and
international climate between the cases were quite different. However,
can we go beyond a description of each case and understand how Carter’s
and Clinton’s experiences differed systematically? Can we identify which
factors and variables produced each outcome and how a change in some
2 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
variables might have led to different results? How do we, in short, under- 1
stand the bigger picture of mediation, generate insights into the factors 2
that account for its variance and learn how to change some of these 3
factors so as to maximize the chances of success? 4
To answer these questions we want to suggest that it is possible to draw 5
on three very different types of conflict management literatures: prescrip- 6
tive, normative and descriptive (Bell et al., 1989). 7
Prescriptive theories of conflict management, negotiation and media- 8
tion explain any variance by emphasizing a set of behavioral norms that 9
parties in conflict either follow (and hence achieve success), or fail to 1
follow (and hence experience failure). Fisher and Ury (1981) provide us 1
with a typical example of the prescriptive approach to conflict manage- 1
ment. They offer some strategies of behavior, which if adopted by parties 1
in conflict, irrespective of size, context or issues, lead to success. Failure to 1
adopt these will lead to a bad outcome. The problems of explaining vari- 1
ance in outcomes are thus taken care of, but in a most unconvincing 1
fashion. 1
Normative theories suggest how ideal, rational actors with all the 1
information at their disposal and coherent personality structures should 1
make decisions in complex situations (Kydd, 2003, 2005; Rauchhaus, 2
2006). Normative theories, best exemplified by formal models and game 2
theoretic approaches, purport to explain the motivation and behavior of 2
actors in conflict on the basis of some assumptions regarding rationality, 2
information and direct causal links to any choice of strategy. Normative 2
theories have coherence, logic and consistency, but the assumptions on 2
which they are based clearly restrict their applicability. Actors in conflict 2
do not behave like intelligent and sensitive parties, they do not have much 2
information (indeed the conflict may be over lack of information), and it 2
is hard to see how this approach, extensive though its contributions are, 2
can be as congruent with reality as we would wish it to be. 3
Descriptive (though a better term for these would be empirical) 3
theories purport to explain how and why actors behave the way they do 3
without, in any way, trying to modify, idealize or moralize such behavior. 3
Here, conflict behavior such as mediation or negotiation is treated as a 3
factor that is dependent on a number of antecedent dimensions that are 3
both observable and theoretically significant, and whose specific inter- 3
action in a given context produces success or failure. Our main focus is 3
with conflict management behavior in the form of mediation. We wish to 3
suggest that observed variance in the success or effectiveness of media- 3
tion has to do with many independent, contextual and specific dimen- 4
sions, all of which we can observe, many of which we can evaluate, and 4
each of which may help to explain success or failure. 4
Each of these three broad theories can help us gain a better under- 4
standing of the processes involved in conflict resolution, and each is evalu- 4
ated along different dimensions. Prescriptive theories are evaluated by 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 3
1 their pragmatic ability to help real actors in conflict make better choices
2 and better decisions. Normative theories are evaluated by their internal
3 consistency, logic and ability to explain multiple phenomena with one
4 theoretical process. Descriptive or empirical theories are evaluated by
5 degree of correspondence with observed reality and ability to produce
6 generalizable conclusions (see Druckman, 2005). It is with this set of
7 broad theories that we wish to proceed here.
8 For many years there was a strong tendency to study conflict manage-
9 ment in general and mediation in particular with a prescriptive framework.
0 Recently, there has been more work employing the normative approach.
1 The main focus of the chapters in this book, however, is on presenting
2 empirical studies on mediation and assessing their usefulness and rele-
3 vance. In particular, we think that empirical studies can provide useful
4 information on the place, role, performance, effectiveness and selection of
5 mediation in international relations. We present empirical studies of the
6 sort below, contribute to our understanding of effective mediation and to
7 our ability to generate practical guidelines for policy-makers.
8 To start with, there are a number of ways to pursue empirical research
9 on conflict management and mediation – and each has strengths and
0 weaknesses. Some of the more prominent avenues of research are: single
1 case studies; experimental approaches; and systematic, large-N studies.
2 Case studies (e.g. Ott, 1972; Mitchell and Webb, 1988) offer detailed and
3 often considerable insights into a particular conflict, but the emphasis
4 on the uniqueness of each case clearly undermines any attempt to offer
5 generalizations or look for broad patterns. Experimental approaches
6 (e.g. Rubin, 1980; Carnevale and De Preu, 2005; Pruitt, 2005) provide for
7 complete control of the environment and the ability to test hypotheses on
8 motivation, preferences and behavior (strong internal validity). However,
9 the extent to which it is possible to extrapolate from the simulated and
0 fully scripted world of naïve subjects to the real world of diplomacy and
1 policy-makers is very doubtful indeed (weak external validity). Systematic,
2 large-scale studies purport to describe and explain real international
3 events by using explicit criteria and definitions, a large and replicable
4 dataset and sophisticated social science methods that help us to identify
5 key relationships, connections and patterns that may affect mediation out-
6 comes. Such studies have their own problems (e.g. the reliance on survey
7 research and archival material that may not always be congruent with
8 “reality”). However, given the need to examine social processes systematic-
9 ally and offer evidence and findings that can be looked at by others, we
40 believe that the empirical approaches we present here are at the cutting-
41 edge in the evolution of research on conflict management. Empirical
42 approaches to mediation, whether case studies, large-N studies or formal
43 models, generate new knowledge and confirm patterns, and by supporting
44 conditional theoretical arguments, provide policy guidelines for more
45 effective conflict management (Bercovitch, 2005).
4 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
Equally important, empirical approaches have been generally underuti- 1
lized in the study of conflict management. Other areas of international 2
relations embraced such approaches with greater alacrity then did schol- 3
ars of conflict management. When one thinks of just how far the demo- 4
cratic theory ideas have evolved, and how closely we have come to 5
formulating a basic law on democracy and external behavior in compara- 6
tive government, we can only bemoan the paucity of similar efforts in the 7
study of mediation. Hence, the chapters below attempt to redress this 8
imbalance and show the emerging strength, vibrancy and relevance of the 9
empirical approach for understanding conflict management in general 1
and mediation in particular. 1
1
1
On conflict management and mediation
1
Conflict is, without doubt, one of the most pervasive and costly of all social 1
processes. It represents the systematic and organized employment of force 1
and violence. Conflict’s human losses represent the most salient type of 1
political cost (Gartner, 2008; Gartner et al., 2004). Conflict’s adverse con- 1
sequences can be particularly dangerous in the international environment 1
where the very existence of political actors may be threatened. Hence 2
the importance attached to conflict management. Conflict management is 2
an attempt to do something about reducing, limiting or eliminating the 2
level, scope and intensity of violence in conflict, and to build a structure 2
where the need to resort to violence in future conflicts is controlled 2
(Deutsch, 1973; Maoz, 2004). Conflict management takes on various 2
forms. It can be unilateral, where one party simply avoids conflicts or 2
withdraws from any emerging conflict or it can be bilateral and involve 2
the disputants in direct or tacit negotiations. Conflict management can 2
also be multilateral, where an outside party, organization or state inter- 2
vene peacefully to help the adversaries with their conflict management 3
efforts. While conflict can be largely a coercive interaction, conflict man- 3
agement is largely non-violent and incorporates a considerable degree of 3
voluntary coordination and joint decision-making between the parties in 3
conflict. Hence the importance scholars attach to understanding conflict 3
management. 3
How then does mediation fit into the overall framework of conflict 3
management? Many policy tools are available for parties in conflict. These 3
include conflict prevention, conflict management (e.g. reaching a polit- 3
ical settlement) and conflict resolution (e.g. resolving all outstanding 3
issues in conflict). Some of these methods are enumerated in the Article 4
33 (1) of the United Nations Charter, and they range from avoidance of 4
conflict to the use of force. Broadly speaking, we can group these into 4
four different categories. These are: (1) the use of force and coercive 4
measures; (2) judicial and legal processes; (3) formal and informal bilat- 4
eral methods; and (4) various forms of non-coercive, third-party interven- 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 5
1 tions (these may be undertaken by a host of actors). These four ways of
2 managing conflicts correspond roughly to power-based approaches to
3 conflict (deterrence, sanctions), rights-based approaches (appeals to legal
4 norms), and interests-based approaches (searching for common interests
5 through bilateral negotiation and third-party mediation). Each approach
6 has different features, characteristics, objectives and consequences, each
7 entails different costs and resources, and each may be appropriate for
8 different conflicts.
9 The approach we wish to focus on is third-party mediation. Mediation
0 is by far the most common form of peaceful third-party intervention in
1 international conflicts. It is predicated on the need to supplement conflict
2 management, not to supplant the parties’ own efforts. Although media-
3 tion has become an integral part of many systems (e.g. labor-management,
4 family disputes), it is a form of conflict management that is particularly
5 well-suited to the international environment with its numerous and
6 diverse political actors all interacting to achieve scarce resources or
7 influence, and where each guards its interests and autonomy jealously
8 and accepts any outside interference in their affairs only if it is strictly
9 necessary and explicitly circumscribed. Mediation is both voluntary and
0 peaceful, and this makes it an attractive option for many states.
1 First, then, how do we frame mediation and distinguish it from other
2 forms of peaceful interventions? There is little consensus in the literature
3 on how mediation, or other key variables, should be defined. Scholars
4 from different disciplinary backgrounds offer different definitions, com-
5 pounding confusion and fragmentation. We want to synthesize many
6 aspects of the mediation literature and develop a definition that will allow
7 us to create a contextual framework of the process. Hence, we view media-
8 tion as a form of joint decision-making in conflict in which an outsider
9 controls some aspects of the process, or indeed the outcome, but ultimate
0 decision-making power remains with the disputants (Moore, 1986). Medi-
1 ation is best seen as an extension of bilateral conflict management. It is a
2 rational, political, though at times risky, process with anticipated costs
3 (e.g. time spent mediating) and benefits (e.g. achieving a reputation as a
4 successful mediator). It operates within a system of exchange and social
5 influence whose parameters are the actors, their communication, expecta-
6 tions, experience, resources, interests and the situation within which they
7 all find themselves. Mediation is a reciprocal process; it influences, and is
8 in turn influenced by and responsive to, the context, parties, issues,
9 history and environment of a conflict (Beardsley, forthcoming). All these
40 aspects shape and influence the selection, process and outcome of media-
41 tion (Gartner and Bercovitch, 2006).
42 A satisfactory definition of mediation has to capture the broad and
43 comprehensive features of the process and be relevant to studies of dis-
44 putes, wars, and crises, such as those included in this book. Here we
45 define mediation as a
6 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
process of conflict management, related to but distinct from the 1
parties’ own efforts, whereby the disputing parties or their representa- 2
tives seek the assistance, or accept an offer of help from an individual, 3
group, state or organization to change, affect or influence their per- 4
ceptions or behavior, without resorting to physical force, or invoking 5
the authority of the law. 6
(Bercovitch, 1992: 8) 7
8
This may be a broad definition indeed and it may encompass a wide range 9
of activities, but we believe such a definition captures the dynamics of 1
mediation as it changes forms and features, and encapsulates the various 1
approaches and methodologies presented in this book. Given such a 1
broad definition, some of the questions to which we seek answers include: 1
how mediators initiate mediation and what considerations influence this 1
process; how mediators behave in mediation; what types of mediators are 1
best suited to certain disputes; which mediation strategies are more useful; 1
how mediators relate to and interact with disputants; and how the context 1
of a conflict affects their behavior? 1
In many respects mediation is as old as conflict itself. The practice of 1
settling conflicts through a third party has a rich history in all cultures 2
(Gulliver, 1979). In international relations, mediation is likely to be used in 2
some, though by no means all, conflicts. It is particularly useful when a 2
conflict has gone on for some time, when the efforts of the parties involved 2
have reached an impasse, when neither party is prepared to countenance 2
further costs or escalation of the dispute and when both parties are ready 2
to engage in direct or indirect dialogue, and are prepared to accept some 2
form of external help and surrender some control over the process of con- 2
flict management. In the current international environment mediation 2
plays an increasingly important role, and it behooves us to have a better 2
appreciation of it. 3
The book is organized so as to reflect our broad approach to media- 3
tion, highlight the dimensions that influence it, and showcase how differ- 3
ent empirical approaches can provide us with insightful and often 3
policy-relevant findings. The framework of the book is meant to suggest 3
that mediation is more than just a matter of choice (rational or otherwise) 3
between two or more parties and a mediator. It is also a framework that we 3
believe can fruitfully join theories and measurements, methods and new 3
findings. We see mediation as a problem-solving approach that is shaped 3
and affected by the interaction of different dimensions. It is affected by 3
the range of possible or available mediation strategies, by who the media- 4
tors are (e.g. personal and organizational attributes), by context, setting 4
and nature of a dispute (e.g. intrastate or interstate, intractable or short- 4
term), and of course, the nature of the environment in which the dispute 4
takes place (e.g. a structured, well-regulated environment, or an unstruc- 4
tured environment). These dimensions help to construct the form and 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 7
1 content of mediation in any situation. They may well explain why a
2 competitive process where parties may be committed to more conflict has
3 been transformed into a cooperative process where the goal is to achieve
4 some degree of mutual and acceptable consensus. What we are saying
5 here is that if we are to understand the circumstances under which media-
6 tion occurs, how it unfolds and how, in particular, we can say something
7 meaningful and relevant about both its effectiveness and variance in its
8 success rate, then we have to be fully cognizant of the dimensions that
9 affect the process and determine its rate of variance. That is precisely what
0 we are doing here with the subsequent chapters.
1
2
The chapters
3
4 The studies in this book reflect our thinking about the importance of
5 examining conflict management systematically, and in particular, why it is
6 critical to undertake new, large-N studies of mediation. The authors
7 methodically examine some of the most critical conflict management
8 questions and attempt to address a number of vital lacunas in the dispute
9 resolution literature. In the organization of the book, the chapters build
0 from the micro (mediation strategy) to the macro (the global environ-
1 ment), creating a multi-layered approach to conflict management that
2 addresses such topics as mediation actions, mediator type, conflict man-
3 agement outcome, dispute characteristics and the conflict management
4 environment.
5 Rather than summarize each chapter here, we focus instead first on
6 their key theoretical contributions and then, more briefly, we address what
7 they offer in terms of empirical and methodological advances.
8 We begin with the recognition that mediators are not just bystanders –
9 they are themselves actors in the conflict management enterprise. Are
0 mediators’ actions effective? In Chapter 2, we (Jacob Bercovitch and Scott
1 Sigmund Gartner) find that powerful international mediators (e.g. large
2 states, the UN) who utilize active, intrusive resolution strategies and can
3 marshal significant resources and leverage in support of their efforts are
4 more effective at managing intense conflicts, while lower profile media-
5 tors using a more passive strategy and utilizing fewer resources do better
6 at managing less challenging and intractable conflicts. This seems to hold
7 true across a variety of contexts and issue types.
8 In Chapter 3, Derrick V. Frazier and William J. Dixon explore the
9 effect of variation in mediation strategy and actions on conflict manage-
40 ment outcomes. They contrast the effects of militarized interventions (e.g.
41 peacekeeping troops) with conflict management efforts (e.g. mediation)
42 on ending conflicts. The authors find that all conflict management efforts
43 have a positive impact on dispute resolution, but that military intervention
44 and third-party mediation by international and regional organizations are
45 the most effective.
8 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
There is tremendous variation in mediator type. How does the media- 1
tor’s identity influence the negotiations and result of conflict management? 2
The authors explore two important lines of research here. Mediators are 3
neither uniform nor homogeneous. One might be close to one or both of 4
the disputants, or have little past history with any of the dispute’s particip- 5
ants. These relationships greatly affect perceptions of mediator bias, which 6
in turn profoundly affects the credibility of the information the mediators 7
provide the disputants. In Chapter 4, Zeev Maoz and Lesley G. Terris show 8
just how important bias and credibility are for conflict management. They 9
find that perceptions of credibility affect both the likelihood of a mediator 1
choosing to be involved in a dispute and their probable effectiveness in 1
resolving the conflict. 1
In Chapter 5, Burcu Savun thoroughly examines the role of mediator bias 1
and information. Applying bargaining theory, she identifies the conditions 1
under which information facilitates cooperation among the disputants. 1
Savun shows that providing information can be an effective mediation strat- 1
egy if used by mediators who have relevant information about the disputants. 1
Recently, one type of mediator has played an especially large role in 1
global dispute resolution – the United Nations. Many anticipate that the 1
importance of the UN will continue to grow. Chapter 6 by Isak Svensson 2
and Chapter 7 by Michelle Benson and Nil S. Satana identify the import- 2
ance of the UN as a mediator, both in terms of special characteristics and 2
influence. Svensson examines arguments about requested, promised and 2
supplied guarantees in peace agreements, with data on internal armed con- 2
flicts after the end of the Cold War. In particular, he shows that the UN has 2
a higher level of credibility than non-UN mediators and that this credibility 2
has a significant impact on the dynamics of civil war termination. 2
Benson and Satana in Chapter 7 examine the influence of UN Security 2
Council resolutions on conflict management. They find that the likeli- 2
hood of UN resolutions is not driven by the power or position of any state 3
or group of states in the Security Council. They argue that it is critical not 3
only to examine UN peacekeeping actions, but also conflict management 3
resolutions that do not involve peacekeeping, in order to paint a complete 3
picture of the role of the UN in dispute resolution. 3
Moving beyond the mediator to a larger context, three chapters examine 3
how dispute and crisis characteristics influence conflict management. In 3
Chapter 8, J. Michael Greig and Paul F. Diehl identify the characteristics 3
that influence the effectiveness of conflict management. They argue that 3
factors such as the cost of the conflict, diplomatic exit strategies and the 3
dynamics of rivalry all influence the initiation of mediation. Mediation is 4
offered and accepted only in certain conflicts; Greig and Diehl take us a 4
long way toward understanding the pre-conditions of mediation. 4
Chapter 9, by David Quinn, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Kathleen Smarick 4
and Victor Asal, examines crises and the role that disputants’ relative 4
power plays in affecting outcomes. Surprising perhaps to some, but nicely 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 9
1 predicted by the authors, power – despite being frequently identified as
2 central to variation in the mediation process – has little independent
3 effect on conflict management, but rather acts indirectly through media-
4 tor identity and strategy to resolve crises.
5 Just as all disputes are not the same, neither are all states. In Chapter 10
6 David Carment, Yiagadeesen Samy and Souleima El Achkar examine the
7 influence of failed and fragile states on conflict management. Comparing
8 the performance of directive or manipulative techniques in protracted con-
9 flict situations, relative to “softer” approaches such as facilitation, which
0 may be part of a more integrative strategy; they find that the sequence of
1 actions matter. They suggest viewing mediation effectiveness as the cessa-
2 tion of violence and the initiation of the process whereby adversaries
3 address mutual grievances and the underlying causes of hostility.
4 Conflict management occurs within a historical context that can influ-
5 ence its nature and effectiveness. In Chapter 11 Sara McLaughlin Mitchell,
6 Kelly M. Kadera and Mark J.C. Crescenzi explore the influence of the
7 global community, and in particular its democraticness, on third-party con-
8 flict management. They argue that a strong democratic community facili-
9 tates the likelihood and effectiveness of third-party dispute resolution and
0 that these third-party mediators are especially likely to be democracies
1 or international institutions. While many examine the demand for media-
2 tion services, these authors analyze the supply of mediation. They find
3 that a significant part of the influence of the democratic community
4 operates through its propagation of democratic societal norms of dispute
5 resolution.
6 In Chapter 12 James A. Wall, Tsungting Chung, Daniel Druckman and
7 Wan Yan apply empirical methods in a small sample of cases to study the
8 influence of different cultural contexts on conflict management. The dif-
9 ficulties of formal comparisons of distinct types of conflicts are overcome
0 here through rigorous tests. Philippine mediators – because of differences
1 in the power of mediation and legal systems as well as cultural norms – are
2 more assertive than their Taiwanese counterparts. Thus, for example,
3 Philippine mediators can dictate concessions, request forgiveness and
4 criticize disputants more often than Taiwanese mediators. In contrast,
5 Taiwanese conflict managers utilize more passive approaches, such as
6 giving advice, calling for empathy and citing laws more frequently than
7 the Philippine mediators.
8 Finally, Chapter 13 by Deborah J. Gerner, Philip A. Schrodt and Ömür
9 Yilmaz introduces a new dataset – called Conflict and Mediation Event
40 Observations (CAMEO). CAMEO is especially well suited for pursing the
41 two central themes of this book: (1) the importance of large-N statistical
42 analysis for analyzing conflict management; and (2) the usefulness of pur-
43 suing multiple levels of analysis, from the micro to the macro, when exam-
44 ining dispute resolution. By providing and discussing the CAMEO data,
45 the authors greatly facilitate future explorations of conflict management
10 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
that build on, and hopefully will move beyond, many of the findings 1
reported in these chapters. 2
One of the strengths of the chapters in this book is that, combined, they 3
show the vast data resources and methods available for exploring conflict 4
management issues (for a systematic comparison of datasets see Gartner 5
and Melin, forthcoming). Many of the datasets analyzed here are new, 6
newly revised or represent critical contributions by the data collectors. In 7
addition to CAMEO, discussed in Chapter 13, datasets used here include 8
(but are not restricted to), International Conflict Management (ICM) 9
(Bercovitch and Gartner, and Savun); Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) 1
and Correlates of War (Greig and Diehl); a new dataset on UN Security 1
Council resolutions (Benson and Satana); the Issue Correlates of War 1
(ICOW) dataset (Mitchell et al.); a new dataset on Intermediary Dispute 1
Behavior (Frazier and Dixon); a new dataset that combines the ICM and 1
MID data (Maoz and Terris); the Uppsala Conflict Data Base (Svensson); 1
and the International Crisis Behavior dataset (Quinn et al. and Carment et 1
al.). In another dataset Wall et al. conduct over 100 interviews on commun- 1
ity mediation in the Philippines and Taiwan. Most of the analyses include 1
sophisticated combinations (merging) of multiple datasets. For example, 1
Svensson integrates the Uppsala Conflict data with figures on peacekeep- 2
ing operations drawn from both Heldt and Wallensteen (2004) and the 2
SIPRI study on multilateral peace operations. 2
Methods used in the chapters of this book include multinomial logit, 2
logistic regression, logit with splines to correct for the binary time-series 2
cross-sectional data and formal modeling. A number of the chapters employ 2
multiple methods – making their arguments especially compelling. For 2
example, Maoz and Terris tie game theoretic and statistical investigation 2
of a large number of cases together. Many of the chapters provide highly 2
rigorous tests and critical theoretical extensions of concepts discussed in 2
case studies. For example, Greig and Diehl analyze the prescriptive notions 3
of “ripeness” and “stalemate” to a rigorous large-N analysis. 3
Taken together these studies suggest that: 3
3
1 Conflict management matters and can make a difference to the course 3
and dynamics of a conflict. In particular, who mediates, conflict man- 3
agement strategy and conflict characteristics all influence conflict 3
management processes and outcomes. 3
2 Mediation works effectively. However we may look at it, mediation is a 3
helpful and often satisfying procedure that consistently shows a posit- 3
ive effect on conflict resolution. 4
3 Methods other than mediation (such as peacekeeping or other forms 4
of intervention) may be more effective under particular conditions. 4
4 The level of analysis is critical. Mediators at different levels of analysis 4
(individual, state, IGO) behave differently, are suited to different con- 4
flicts and have varied effects on the process and outcome of a conflict. 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 11
1 In particular, the UN increasingly represents a critical actor in inter-
2 national conflict management.
3 5 The environment in which mediation and conflict management occur
4 is critical.
5 6 It is essential that we continue to develop better and more complete
6 databases on conflict management.
7
8 The chapters here also show that unit of observation matters. For
9 example, looking across the studies, some factors seem to lead to contra-
0 dictory results until the variation in the unit of the analysis is taken into
1 account. For example, mediation signals a particular kind of dispute, a
2 challenging conflict that is unlikely to end in a full agreement, while
3 mediated militarized interstate disputes and mediated crises are more
4 likely to end in such an agreement. The differences are that some look at
5 the conflict management effort as the unit of analysis (Bercovitch and
6 Gartner, and Savun), while others examine the crisis (Quinn et al. and
7 Carment et al.) or the militarized dispute (Frazier and Dixon).
8
9
Future issues and concerns
0
1 Where do we go from here? Unlike the study of interstate conflict, with its
2 explosion of research within the democratic peace framework, conflict
3 management studies continue to reinvent the wheel, often starting with
4 different definitions and talking past each other. This book attempts to
5 address some of those concerns by raising serious fundamental questions
6 about international mediation and approaching these from a systematic
7 empirical perspective. We begin this journey with a strong conviction that
8 mediation should be studied within an explicit theoretical framework, and
9 that it is a social process that, like other social processes, is susceptible to
0 different empirical analyses. We believe it is possible, indeed desirable, to
1 define, explore, test and work with different datasets to refine our under-
2 standing of mediation. Others can explore further the results, and the
3 arguments can be subjected to different tests. This is how we can provide
4 new insights and discard conventional ideas. It is only by working in this
5 empirical fashion that we can build up knowledge and ensure that know-
6 ledge is policy-relevant.
7 Still, there is much to do. The whole nexus of dynamics, relationships,
8 contexts and outcomes in mediation is quite problematic. We need to
9 know more about this nexus, and the forces that shape its outcomes. We
40 need to appreciate that much about mediation is truly contingent; it is a
41 relationship of reciprocal influence, it works under some circumstances,
42 but not others. It works well at times, but fails to do so on other occasions.
43 By detailing the circumstances where it works, the empirical approach
44 lends itself to practical applications. Other approaches expect us to take
45 too much on trust.
12 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
We need to disaggregate the complexity of mediation experiences and 1
learn cause and effect conditions. One of the best ways of approaching a 2
contingent problem is the systematic, empirical approach of the sort 3
adopted in this book. We cannot just assume that mediation takes place 4
because there is a willing mediator somewhere and a conflict to be medi- 5
ated. Numerous conditions have to be met before mediation happens. We 6
want to know something about these antecedent conditions. We need to 7
know how mediators acquire and use credibility, how it influences the 8
chances of mediation. We need to know how different actors use different 9
resources, and whether there are optimal strategies to deal with different 1
kinds of conflict. We also need to investigate further the relationship 1
between regional membership and the resort to mediation. Is mediation a 1
more likely response to a conflict when it occurs within a certain group of 1
likeminded states, or is it more likely to be discarded in favor of negotia- 1
tion? Similarly, what are the roles and effectiveness of conflict manage- 1
ment by regional organizations? 1
We need to think about the role of different aspects not usually 1
included in mediation studies. For example, with the exception of one 1
chapter in this volume (Maoz and Terris), economic data receive little 1
attention. How do economic issues and resources influence the conflict 2
management process? Do they have any effect on the acceptance and 2
performance of mediation? The roles of dispute and conflict management 2
time are not well understood and one can see this clearly as one statistical 2
method under-represented here is hazard analyses. 2
The relationship between potential mediators and conflicts that 2
encourage or allow mediation is still not well defined. We know in this 2
situation that selection plays a role, but how precisely that happens in the 2
real world is something that we need to come back to. We know a lot 2
about what but not much about what effects. The strategic interaction of 2
threats and other strong-arm influences attempted with the more tradi- 3
tional, more diplomatic, efforts remains elusive. Which mediators use 3
which strategies or resources in which conflicts and with what effects is 3
one of the basic questions we need to address in future studies. 3
There are numerous issues to be studied. As with any other field of 3
human endeavor, the more we understand some aspects of a process, the 3
more new questions we seem to pose. Nevertheless, we think it is important 3
when studying mediation to look beyond the specific case study with its 3
unique features. The chapters of this book exemplify our belief and 3
provide encouraging results both about the effectiveness of conflict man- 3
agement, mediation in particular, and the efficacy of using large-N statisti- 4
cal approaches for examining conflict management issues. Neither of these 4
conclusions should be taken lightly. In practice, mediation’s popularity as a 4
way of dealing with conflict grows each year, as does its applicability to dif- 4
ferent realms. Yet, mediation research is a comparatively new area of schol- 4
arly study that for too long has been poorly understood, an area where 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 13
1 descriptions and exhortations far outnumber any attempts at theory build-
2 ing and hypothesis testing. For many years most studies on mediation were
3 descriptions of single historical cases where any attempt to sketch patterns
4 was viewed with immense skepticism, or they were of the prescriptive kind
5 where a single, pre-ordained strategy was postulated as the most effective in
6 all conflict situations (e.g. Burton, 1969; Kelman, 1979). The prevalent
7 agnosticism toward any form of general analysis is best exemplified by the
8 comments made by one of the most experienced labor mediators, William
9 Simkin, who notes that “the variables [in mediation] are so many that it
0 would be an exercise in futility to attempt to describe typical mediator
1 behavior with respect to sequence, timing or the use or non-use of the
2 various functions theoretically available” (Simkin, 1971: 118). The mystery
3 and presumed uniqueness of mediation acted, for far too long, like some-
4 thing of a ghost that haunted the empirical study of conflict resolution.
5 Neither the single case descriptions nor the prescriptive approaches
6 are able to offer reliable and replicable theoretical explanations for how
7 mediation works, which disputes are most amenable to mediation, which
8 strategies are most effective, or which international mediators are best
9 adapted to deal with which conflicts. Conversely, the studies presented
0 here address patterns and cannot speak to the specific details of individual
1 cases. However, we cannot advance the study of mediation by predicating
2 it on the idea that mediation is unique, divine or prescriptive. Conflict
3 management efforts can, and indeed should, be studied systematically,
4 just like other social processes, with research that focuses on the full range
5 – from micro to macro – of mediation topics. Mediation’s start, conduct
6 and results form patterns that can be analyzed and identified. It is best
7 viewed and understood as one strategy in the broader context of conflict
8 management strategies, where parties are free to choose the strategy they
9 believe will best serve their interests. Once we locate mediation within the
0 overall process of conflict management, we understand that what media-
1 tors do, are permitted to do, or what they can do, is not too dissimilar to
2 what the parties themselves do, or can do. Whether mediation succeeds or
3 fails depends on many factors, but it is precisely these factors that we need
4 to identify, study and evaluate. To do otherwise would be to mistake
5 wishful thinking for reality. There is much to be done, more exciting
6 avenues to explore and more potential significant findings to unravel. We
7 hope the chapters of this book spur our colleagues to go on and achieve
8 an even better understanding of the process of mediation.
9
40
41 References
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43 tion and time-inconsistency problems,” American Journal of Politics.
44 Bell, David E., Howard Raiffa and Amos Tversky (1989). “Descriptive, normative
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New York: Macmillan and St. Martin’s Press.
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Bercovitch, Jacob (2005). “Social research and the study of mediation: designing
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415–428. 8
Burton, John (1969). Conflict and Communication: The Use of Controlled Communica- 9
tion in International Conflict. London: Macmillan. 1
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ogy of Intergroup Relations. Monterey, CA: Brooks/Cole, pp. 288–303. 3
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ation. New York: Greenwood Press. 4
 New approaches, methods and findings 15
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Part I

Mediation strategy
1
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 1
2 2 Is there method in the madness
3
4 of mediation?
5
6 Some lessons for mediators from
7 quantitative studies of mediation*
8
9
0 Jacob Bercovitch and Scott Sigmund Gartner
1
2
3 In the first few years of the twenty-first century, third parties played a major
4 role in a large number of intrastate and interstate disputes (e.g. Ache,
5 Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cambodia, Ivory Coast, Somalia and
6 Sudan). This is not unusual. Empirical studies suggest that some form of
7 non-coercive third-party intervention has taken place in nearly 70 percent
8 of all conflicts since 1945 (see Bercovitch and Fretter, 2004; Sherman,
9 1994). Third-party mediation has become a common and greatly cham-
0 pioned method of international conflict resolution. It is practiced by
1 numerous and diverse actors, ranging from individuals through states to
2 international organizations. When successful, mediation may “soften up”
3 the parties, promote diplomacy (see Grieg and Diehl, this volume) and be
4 instrumental in achieving a cessation of hostilities, a peace agreement or a
5 full settlement of a conflict.
6 Notwithstanding mediation’s importance and pervasiveness, research
7 on its characteristics and effects has suffered from compartmentalization,
8 with little interaction between scholars using traditional qualitative, single-
9 case approaches, those employing formal mathematical models or statisti-
0 cal analyses and those offering prescriptive ideas. We attempt to bridge
1 this chasm by drawing on the theoretical literature that highlights factors
2 associated with mediation success and then testing these ideas using large-
3 N statistical techniques. We are able to make this connection because we
4 look at mediation within a perspective that emphasizes two central points:
5
6 1 international actors (individuals, NGOs or states) intervene in some
7 conflicts but not others; and
8 2 the effect of conflict management factors on dispute outcomes
9 depends on dispute conditions.
40
41 We place mediation within a broader theoretical context and discover that
42 there is indeed a method and logic to the seeming “madness” of mediation.
43 We propose to study mediation within an analytical framework that
44 takes into account the context of a dispute and the actual process of media-
45 tion. The framework includes an expanded range of the results of conflict
20 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
management; creating outcomes that are more nuanced than the usual 1
dichotomous conception of success or failure. Critically, we differentiate 2
between mediation processes taking place in highly intense or less intense 3
disputes. Using the 2000 International Conflict Management dataset, we 4
test our argument with a number of different analyses. The data contain 5
contextual observations on more than 3,500 cases of official mediation 6
efforts in international conflicts since 1945. We find that mediation shows 7
its anticipated effects only when we include a wider distribution of conflict 8
management outcomes, and analyze high- and low-intensity disputes sepa- 9
rately. Our results have significant implications for both the study and 1
practice of international mediation. 1
1
1
Theory
1
We start by outlining our general argument, and then we lay out our 1
specific expectations for the effects of three crucial conflict management 1
factors; namely, the identity of the conflict manager, the strategy adopted, 1
and past experiences of conflict management. 1
1
2
General argument
2
Mediation is a form of third-party assistance in which an invited outsider 2
helps the belligerent parties with their conflict management efforts. 2
It is the main alternative to negotiation by the disputants themselves 2
and is a useful procedure in many situations (e.g. where parties refuse to 2
communicate directly). Mediation operates in an ad hoc, non-coercive 2
and facilitative fashion (Zartman and Touval, 1996). Once mediation is 2
accepted and initiated, it takes place along a spectrum of intervention 2
which ranges from fairly passive (e.g. transferring information from one 2
side to the other) to active (e.g. offering promises of political and eco- 3
nomic support). The choice of a particular form of mediation is rarely 3
random. It is affected by the characteristics of the dispute, the nature of 3
the social environment and the identity of a mediator (Assefa, 1987; Terris 3
and Maoz, 2005). We believe that mediation is a rational, political process, 3
representing a strategic engagement between parties and a mediator, 3
which, under some conditions, may stop violence and hostilities or even 3
facilitate a peace agreement and a transformation of the conflict. What we 3
want to do is disentangle these conditions from the myriad of factors 3
affecting conflict management and study their effects in a systematic 3
manner. 4
Like other political processes, mediation may be costly, time-consuming 4
and risky for disputants and mediators alike (see Terris and Maoz, 2005). 4
Normally, under conditions of low intensity, divisible issues, open communi- 4
cation and complete information, parties prefer to resolve their own con- 4
flicts without any third-party assistance (see Latour, 1976). This is not always 4
 Is there method in the madness of mediation? 21
1 the case, and on many occasions parties may need help with their conflict
2 management. Once mediation is offered and accepted, all those involved
3 experience certain costs. The parties may be persuaded or cajoled into
4 making unforeseen concessions. They relinquish some control over the
5 process and thus increase the level of uncertainty regarding a desired
6 outcome. Disputants may end up accepting a less-than-hoped-for outcome or
7 experience rupture in political or economic ties to the mediator. Finally, by
8 entering into mediation the parties may experience some loss of public face
9 at their inability to resolve their dispute on their own. These are very real
0 costs and they have to be managed somehow if mediation is to be effective.
1 For the mediator too there are considerable risks. These include
2 domestic and international political costs, criticism by the media in case of
3 failure, censure or rebuke from one or both parties and reputation losses
4 (for an extended discussion of these possible costs, see Princen, 1992).
5 Parties in dispute and any would-be mediator link the process of media-
6 tion to the chances of its success (Greig, 2005). Given the inherent uncer-
7 tainty involved in conflict management, the anticipated benefits of a
8 settlement or accommodation have to exceed the expectation of costs by a
9 considerable margin or else mediation will simply not take place (Maoz
0 and Terris, this volume).
1 Third-party involvement in a conflict signals that the parties need
2 outside help, that their conflict is too difficult to terminate by themselves,
3 and at the same time, that it is costly enough that they both want to see it
4 end (see Crocker et al., 2004; Mitchell, 1995). High-intensity or complex
5 conflicts where past conflict management efforts failed make parties more
6 willing to embrace new ways and methods (e.g. mediation) of getting out
7 of their impasse. When these conditions exist, parties are willing to bring
8 in, or accept an offer from, a third party. For their part, mediators have to
9 possess a high motivation to enter a conflict arena, a strong desire to get
0 involved and a perception of higher benefits than costs. Mediation is a
1 universal but not a uniformly applicable process.
2 The result of these complex decision processes is that mediation is
3 particularly likely to take place in tough, high-intensity and complex con-
4 flicts. Such conflicts, mediated or not, are unlikely to end with a full-scale
5 agreement or resolution of all the issues in dispute. If any agreement at all
6 is reached in such conflicts, it is more likely to be both limited in nature
7 and short-lived (see Gartner and Bercovitch, 2006).
8 We also have to take into account the fact that achieving a ceasefire in
9 such challenging conflicts, however ill-designed it may be, can represent
40 successful and effective mediation (one thinks of the numerous temporary
41 ceasefires in the former Yugoslavia, each of which gave the parties the
42 opportunity to feed the hungry and care for the wounded, until fighting
43 started again). We argue that achieving a limited agreement in a previously
44 intractable conflict is no less significant than the achievement of a full
45 settlement in a more tractable dispute (e.g. the dispute between Great
22 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
Britain and Iceland over fishing rights in the North Sea in the early 1970s). 1
To suggest that mediation is unsuccessful where it does not produce a full 2
settlement, irrespective of the nature of the conflict, represents a failure to 3
appreciate the full complexity of conflict, the different outcomes that may 4
bring a conflict to an end, and the decision processes underlying the entry 5
or exit of a mediator. 6
Given the costs and risks involved, both for mediators and adversaries, in 7
initiating and accepting mediation, and the selection process involved, we 8
want to suggest that there is a close relationship between who mediates, what 9
mediators can do, the nature and intensity of a conflict and the likely range 1
of outcomes. The greater the intensity of a conflict, the more likely it will 1
require experienced, institutional mediators with larger resources and the 1
ability to mobilize sustained and active efforts in order to change the course 1
of the conflict. Other, more tractable conflicts may require lower profile 1
mediators and a less intrusive form of mediation to help bring them to an 1
end. In intense disputes, we would expect major powers and international 1
organizations to act as mediators and adopt a high-profile, active mediation. 1
In less intense disputes, we would expect regional and local actors to assume 1
a mediatory role and employ a less active mediation strategy. 1
Mediation is not a panacea or a magic solution to all conflicts. It is, 2
however, a useful tool that may work effectively under some circumstances. 2
We need to evaluate the circumstances under which it is effective, and study 2
the factors that have the greatest impact on mediation activity and effective- 2
ness. Here we focus on three main factors, widely discussed in the literature 2
as having important consequences for conflict management. These are: 2
2
1 mediation attributes and identity 2
2 mediation strategy and behavior, and 2
3 previous experience of conflict management. 2
3
Our arguments are consistent with both the general flavor of past studies 3
(see, for instance, Bercovitch and Langley, 1993; Bercovitch and Regan, 3
2004; Kleiboer, 1996, 1998; Kochan and Jick, 1978; Pruitt and Kressel, 3
1989) and findings on mediation drawn from specific studies (see, for 3
instance, Princen, 1992). However, we show that a simple statistical analy- 3
sis of how these factors affect outcomes does not lead to their widely 3
anticipated results. Instead, a more sophisticated analysis shows that these 3
attributes are indeed at work, but their influence on the process of media- 3
tion is affected by outcome type and intensity of conflict. 3
4
4
Mediators and levels of analysis in mediation
4
Mediation may be undertaken by any actor with resources, standing or 4
interest. Most political systems create regimes, conventions or rules to 4
structure mediation activities. In an international environment lacking a 4
 Is there method in the madness of mediation? 23
1 centralized authority, the range of potential mediators and the diversity of
2 mediation are truly immense (for a discussion of these see Frazier and
3 Dixon, this volume). It is best to think of mediators as falling within one of
4 the following categories: individuals, states, regional organizations and
5 international institutions (Bercovitch and Schneider, 2000). These cat-
6 egories not only capture critical actors but also represent different levels
7 of analysis where we might expect different forms of intervention to be
8 associated with each level of analysis. We examine the basic characteristics
9 of each level below.
0
1
Individuals
2
3 At its most basic, mediation is truly an interpersonal process involving indi-
4 viduals. The traditional image of international mediation, one nurtured by
5 the media and popular accounts, is that of a high-ranking official shuttling
6 from one place to another in an attempt to search for understanding and
7 to restore communication between hostile parties or to help settle their
8 conflict directly is not wholly inaccurate. When individuals engage in medi-
9 ation as official representatives of their governments, we do not normally
0 identify such mediation as individual in nature. Individual mediation is
1 rare – as can be seen in Table 2.1. Most mediation is carried on by states
2
3
Table 2.1 Mediator attributes
4
5 Category Frequency Percent (within category)
6
7 Mediators
8 Individual 106 4.50
Regional 362 15.38
9 International 792 33.64
0 State 1,094 46.47
1 Strategies
2 Communications 1,235 52.46
3 Procedural 434 18.44
Directive 685 29.10
4 Mediation history
5 None 137 5.82
6 Offered only 129 5.48
7 Fail 1,182 50.21
8 Ceasefire 228 9.69
Partial settlement 579 24.60
9 Full settlement 99 4.21
40 Outcome
41 Failure 1,310 55.65
42 Ceasefire 234 9.94
43 Partial settlement 657 27.91
Full settlement 153 6.50
44 Total 2,354
45
24 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
(or, to be more accurate, their representatives) and regional and inter- 1
national organizations (cf. Frazier and Dixon, this volume). 2
By individual mediation, we mean mediation that is carried out by 3
individuals who are not government officials or political incumbents. 4
Individual mediation, although significant (we think for instance of the 5
contribution of George Mitchell to the Northern Ireland peace process), 6
is not the most common at the international level. Individual mediation 7
in international relations is often an adjunct to the more formal pre- 8
negotiation efforts of conflict management (for a review of these efforts 9
see Fisher, 1997). Given the lack of resources and the costs and risks asso- 1
ciated with the process, we do not anticipate that individual mediators will 1
be effective at resolving intense disputes. 1
1
1
Institutions and organizations
1
The complexity of the international environment is such that states can 1
no longer facilitate the pursuit of all human interests or satisfy the 1
demands for a shrinking range of public sector goods and services 1
the world over. Consequently, we have witnessed a phenomenal growth in 1
the number of international organizations, many of which affect issues of 2
war and peace. These organizations have become, in some cases, more 2
important providers of services than states. They have also become, in the 2
modern international system, very active participants in the search for 2
mechanisms and procedures conducive to peacemaking and conflict reso- 2
lution. We would expect these organizations to have some impact on the 2
mediation of international conflicts. 2
Two kinds of organizations play an important role in the area of peace- 2
making and conflict resolution: international organizations and regional 2
organizations (we ignore for now transnational organizations). Their medi- 2
ation frequencies are shown in Table 2.1. 3
3
3
International organizations
3
Of the international organizations now in existence, none has been more 3
active in resolving conflicts through negotiations and mediation than the 3
UN, whose charter specifically commits it to provide the answers to global 3
problems of conflict and security. In the post-Cold War era’s outbreaks of 3
low-level violence, civil wars and ethnic conflicts, the UN is often seen as 3
the only actor capable of resolving conflict independently. The Agenda 3
for Peace, released by Secretary General Boutros-Ghali in 1992, recognizes 4
the future challenges the UN is likely to encounter and places great 4
emphasis on preventive diplomacy, peacemaking and post-conflict peace 4
building as priorities for the world organization. 4
The United Nations is quickly becoming a center for initiating con- 4
certed efforts to deal with the deep-rooted causes of conflict – to resolve 4
 Is there method in the madness of mediation? 25
1 conflicts, not merely stop them in their tracks – and will undoubtedly use
2 its new political latitude to expand its mediation and conflict-resolution
3 activities. Recent UN peacemaking efforts in Somalia, Bosnia, Cambodia,
4 Liberia, Afghanistan, Angola, East Timor and Rwanda show the extent to
5 which this once largely ineffectual and much-criticized organization is
6 now prepared to engage itself in all kinds of difficult and intense conflicts.
7 Once involved, the UN can offer a wealth of related resources unavailable
8 to most other mediators, including a forum, skilled support personnel
9 and the ability to mobilize an international consensus.
0 International organizations like the UN have considerable resources at
1 their disposal, or resources they may draw on. For the mediators, however,
2 mediation is likely to be costly – both in terms of the activity (transportation,
3 translation, etc.) and in terms of opportunity costs (there are other disputes
4 that they might want to mediate). International mediators are unlikely to
5 have been involved in a dispute as combatants (although they may have
6 been involved in previous conflict management efforts). As a result, they are
7 likely to focus on highly intense and salient disputes that generate world-
8 wide attention and for which their ability to marshal significant resources
9 seems necessary. Conversely, international mediators are unlikely to be
0 involved in low-level disputes where their presence might seem like outside
1 intervention (or in some cases, like sublime colonialism). As a result, we
2 anticipate that international organizations play a more effective role in the
3 more intense, difficult and less amenable conflicts; those “orphaned con-
4 flicts” not wanted by states or regional organizations.
5
6
Regional organizations
7
8 Regional organizations, such as the European Union (EU), the Organi-
9 zation of American States (OAS), the African Union (AU) and the Arab
0 League, all adhere to the principles of negotiation and mediation as their
1 preferred means of resolving conflicts. Because most conflict occurs
2 between regional neighbors, it is not surprising that these organizations
3 have always had great latitude in the field of conflict resolution (for an
4 extended discussion see Diehl, 2003). Some, like the EU and the Organi-
5 zation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have made con-
6 flict resolution a major component of their structure. When regional
7 organizations engage in collective mediation, their strength owes to their
8 members’ common background, culture and experience. They may not
9 have the capacity or resources of the UN, but they are almost all involved
40 in some peacemaking activity: the EU in Bosnia, the AU in Somalia and
41 the OAS in El Salvador.
42 Regional organizations are especially effective at resolving low intensity
43 disputes. Organizations like the EU are not well suited for terminating
44 wars, but rather are better suited for dealing with water or fishing rights
45 issues. Other regional organizations, like OAS, are likely to be hamstrung
26 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
in dealing with highly intense disputes because of the probability that 1
some of their members are involved in the conflict. As a result, we antici- 2
pate that regional organizations will be more effective at dealing with 3
low-intensity conflicts (for a comparison of regional and international 4
organizations in international conflict see Bercovitch and Fretter, 2004). 5
6
States 7
8
When a state mediates, the services of one of its top decision-makers or
9
current or former leaders are normally engaged. In these cases, figures such
1
as Henry Kissinger, Presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton or George Bush,
1
former Secretary of State Warren Christopher, former Assistant Secretary of
1
State Chester Crocker, Great Britain’s Lord Carrington or the US’s Philip
1
Habeeb all fulfilled mediation roles, usually in the full glare of the inter-
1
national media, as representatives of their countries. States, through their
1
representatives, are the most common mediators, as seen in Table 2.1.
1
Mediation, at any level and in all its guises, is essentially a voluntary
1
process. This dimension is particularly important in the relations between
1
states, where any unwelcome intervention may be strenuously resisted and
1
indeed is in violation of Article 2 of the UN Charter. For mediation to be
2
effective, even the most highly placed decision-makers must be seen as
2
impartial, acceptable to the disputants, and deserving of their trust. The
2
absence of any one of these attributes may well lead to a failed mediation
2
(Maoz and Terris, this volume). Disputants will submit to mediation only
2
when they believe that the mediator can act fairly and recognize the
2
importance of their interests. State mediators are likely to be more flexi-
2
ble than international or regional organizations since their preference
2
ordering should be more certain. Nevertheless, they will be less able to
2
demonstrate impartiality and more likely have an interest in the outcome.
2
As a result, we anticipate that states are more effective generally than indi-
3
viduals in mediating all disputes, but less effective than international
3
mediators in dealing with intense disputes. By the same token, we expect
3
states and regional organizations to have a higher likelihood of success
3
than international organizations in resolving low-intensity conflicts.
3
What kind of mediators get involved in conflicts, and what is the effect
3
of different mediator attributes on the process and outcome of media-
3
tion? Wall et al. (2001), Kleiboer (1996) and Low (1985) argue that media-
3
tor characteristics and their standing vis-à-vis the disputing parties are
3
important determinants of the outcome. We examine the effects of media-
3
tor’s attributes more explicitly by articulating the following hypotheses
4
regarding mediator types and their likely impact.
4
4
Mediator type hypotheses
4
H1 Mediator identity and attributes influence conflict management out- 4
comes. 4
 Is there method in the madness of mediation? 27
1 H1A State and Regional mediators are more likely to lead to settlements
2 in low intensity conflicts.
3 H1B State and Regional mediators are less likely to facilitate settlements
4 in high intensity conflicts.
5 H1C International mediators are more likely to facilitate settlements in
6 high intensity conflicts.
7 H1D Individual mediators are less effective at facilitating settlements
8 across the range of conflicts.
9
0
Mediation strategies and behavior
1
2 Another factor often cited as an important determinant of the effective-
3 ness or success of mediation concerns how different mediation styles of
4 behavior or strategies affect outcomes (for a review of these see Bercovitch
5 and Houston, 2000). Mediator’s choice of strategy is not random. That
6 choice is a rational response to a specific conflict situation, the needs,
7 interests, capabilities and perceptions of the parties, as well as those of the
8 mediator, and the relevance of various sources of power and resources
9 (see Carnevale, 1986). The way in which mediators choose to avail them-
0 selves of their powers is also dependent on the parties’ acceptance or resis-
1 tance to the mediator’s use of influence, the extent of the mediator’s
2 available resources, and how these mediation efforts may affect all the
3 parties’ independence, power and position vis-à-vis the conflict situation
4 and possible outcome (Raven, 1990).
5 Here we suggest that an effective way of describing and interpreting
6 mediator behavior in international conflicts is to conceptualize their activ-
7 ities in terms of specific strategies. While the analysis of the roles and stages
8 of mediator behavior provide perfectly valid and feasible explanations of
9 single cases, the categorization of mediation behavior into broad strategies is
0 the most practical and useful option when studying a large number of con-
1 flicts. This approach provides a simple, yet logical structure within which the
2 extensive inventory of mediator behavior can be organized and understood.
3 For our purposes, the most useful taxonomy of mediator behavior that
4 can be applied to international conflict management identifies three fun-
5 damental mediator strategies along a continuum ranging from low to high
6 intervention. These are: (a) communication-facilitation; (b) procedural
7 strategies; and (c) directive strategies (discussions of these can be found in
8 Bercovitch, 1992; Bercovitch and Wells, 1993; Zartman and Touval, 1996;
9 Quinn et al., this volume). These strategies build on Sheppard’s (1984) tax-
40 onomy of mediator behavior that focuses on the content, process, and pro-
41 cedural aspects of conflict management. The distribution of mediation
42 strategies in our dataset is shown in Table 2.1.
43
44 1 Communication-facilitation strategies describe mediator behavior at the
45 low end of the intervention spectrum. Here a mediator typically
28 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
adopts a fairly passive role, channeling information to the parties and 1
facilitating cooperation, but exhibiting little control over the more 2
formal process or substance of mediation. This is referred to at times 3
as the consultation model and is best exemplified by Norway’s role in 4
achieving the Oslo agreement between Israel and the PLO. 5
2 Procedural strategies enable a mediator to exert a more formal control 6
over the process and environment of the mediation. Here a mediator 7
may determine structural aspects of the meetings, control con- 8
stituency influences, media publicity, the distribution of information 9
and the situation powers of the parties’ resources and communication 1
processes. When New Zealand mediated the Bougainville conflict in 1
1995, it brought both parties to a military camp in New Zealand and 1
exercised full control over the procedural aspects of the interaction 1
(but little or no control over other aspects). 1
3 Directive strategies are the most powerful form of intervention. Here a 1
mediator affects the content and substance of the bargaining process 1
by providing incentives for the parties to negotiate or by issuing ulti- 1
matums. Directive strategies aim to change the way issues are framed 1
and the behavior associated with them. This style is exemplified by 1
Richard Holbrook’s mediation efforts at Dayton, Ohio. 2
2
How can we connect strategies to outcomes? Few studies attempt to 2
assess the effectiveness of different strategies. Those that do so have found 2
that the strategies at each end of the intervention spectrum appear to dom- 2
inate actual mediator intervention in international conflicts (Bercovitch 2
and Houston, 1996). Further analyses of mediation revealed that while 2
communication-facilitation strategies are the most frequently utilized by 2
international mediators, directive strategies appear to be the most success- 2
ful (e.g. Bercovitch and Houston, 1996; Gartner and Bercovitch, 2006; 2
Wilkenfeld et al., 2003). 3
The choice of a strategy in any situation is clearly affected by the nature 3
of the relationship between the belligerents. Mediators adapt their style of 3
intervention to meet the requirements of the situation, and we think that 3
certain styles or strategies of mediation will be generally more effective in 3
certain situations. An intense conflict with high fatalities may require 3
more intense interventions than a low-level conflict (see Rubin, 1980; 3
Hiltrop, 1985). The costs of no agreement in the former are dangerously 3
high. If a mediator is involved in such a conflict, they will use any stick or 3
carrot at their disposal to nudge the parties toward a zone of agreement. 3
However, given the entrenched and intense nature of the conflict, it is 4
more than likely that the most that can be achieved is a partial cessation of 4
violence. In a low-intensity conflict, disputants are likely to view those 4
same sticks and carrots as overbearing and too directive in nature – 4
making them less effective, despite the likely lower stakes involved. Here 4
we want to explore the interactive effects between different mediation 4
 Is there method in the madness of mediation? 29
1 strategies and conflict outcomes. We do so by articulating the following
2 hypotheses:
3
4
Mediation strategy hypotheses
5
6 H2 Mediation strategy choices influence conflict management outcomes.
7 H2A Directive strategies are most likely to lead to ceasefires in high-intensity
8 conflicts.
9 H2B Directive strategies are most likely to lead to full settlements in high-
0 intensity conflicts.
1 H2C Directive strategies are unlikely to be effective at securing full settle-
2 ments in low-intensity conflicts.
3 H2D Procedural strategies are most effective at facilitating full settlements
4 in low-intensity conflicts.
5
6
Previous experience and learning in mediation
7
8 Any relationship, and certainly any conflictual relationship, is affected by
9 previous experiences of such behavior between the same parties. Similarly,
0 any current conflict management is affected by previous conflict manage-
1 ment efforts and any learning which may have taken place (on the role of
2 learning in conflict management see Leng, 2000). The past does indeed
3 cast a shadow on the present. Repeated mediation efforts by the same
4 mediator may establish some norms of interaction and to a large extent
5 determine what each party may expect and how it should behave. In an
6 environment of risk and uncertainty, mediators may use information from
7 previous efforts, or build on any rapport they may have had with the
8 parties. Here we anticipate that previous mediation and, in particular, pre-
9 viously mediated agreements influence the likelihood of current media-
0 tion efforts. Previous mediation efforts can establish norms and a certain
1 rapport between the parties, and these can affect their current disposition
2 and behavior (see Zubek et al., 1992). There is an element of reinforce-
3 ment and learning (see Leng, 2000) occasioned by previous experience of
4 mediation. We want to explore how this often-neglected dimension
5 impacts on current mediation efforts.
6 We conceive of conflict management outcomes as a one-way probabilis-
7 tic ratchet. We assume that parties learn from their conflict management
8 experience so that the achievement of an outcome makes the likelihood
9 of a similar or better outcome in the next round of conflict management
40 even stronger. That is, past behavior affects the probability of future
41 behavior, making similar and more demanding settlements more likely,
42 and less successful outcomes less likely. For example, each partial settle-
43 ment achieved through mediation decreases the likelihood of observing a
44 ceasefire or no outcome and increases the likelihood of achieving a partial
45 or full settlement in the next round. However, conflict management is not
30 J. Bercovitch and S.S. Gartner
a linear process and we can certainly conceive that many full settlements 1
resulted from a series of mediation efforts that involved “two steps forward 2
and one step back.” Thus, our arguments are directional but probabilistic; 3
mediation history alters the odds of future settlements but does not deter- 4
mine outcomes. In analyzing mediation history we also identify those con- 5
flicts that have had no previous mediation. The values and distribution of 6
our variables on mediation history are shown in Table 2.1. 7
Including previously mediated outcomes also controls for the likely 8
cumulative effects of mediation that could create temporal autocorrelation 9
problems if not addressed. Examining previous mediation efforts thus not 1
only incorporates a powerful theoretical concern but also helps to control 1
for a technical problem that could lead to unreliable standard error esti- 1
mates. Our argument here is more uniform and we anticipate that media- 1
tion history is less likely to be affected by varied outcome processes and 1
conflict intensity. As a result, our hypothesis is more general: 1
1
1
Previous experience hypothesis
1
H3 The outcome of the previous mediation effort or the lack of mediation 1
previously will influence current conflict management outcomes. In 2
particular, previous mediation outcomes facilitate similar or improved 2
current outcomes. 2
2
2
Analysis
2
Unlike most previous studies, our analyses of the factors that influence 2
conflict management outcomes include all mediated conflict manage- 2
ment efforts – and not just the ones that resulted in agreements. Analyses 2
only of efforts that lead to agreements suffer from an ex post/ex ante 2
problem. When choosing mediators and mediation strategies, the dis- 3
putants and mediators do not know if a particular mediation effort will 3
result in an agreement or not, so paying attention to concerns about ex 3
post information is especially important. 3
3
3
The data
3
We analyze all actively mediated conflict management efforts included in 3
the 2000 International Conflict Management dataset. By “actively medi- 3
ated” we mean conflict management efforts where mediation occurred 3
(we exclude conflict management efforts that were: 4
4
1 negotiated by the parties themselves 4
2 where mediation was offered but not accepted 4
3 where conflicts were referred to multinational conferences, or 4
4 arbitrated. 4
 Is there method in the madness of mediation? 31
1 We present multiple analyses that include the following variables:
2
3 1 Who mediates
4 a state mediator (state)
5 b individual mediator (individual)
6 c regional mediator (regional)
7 d international mediator (international, the missing category).
8 2 Mediation strategies
9 a directive
0 b procedural
1 c facilitating communication (the missing category).
2 3 Previous mediation results
3 a no previous mediation (previous none, the missing category)
4 b previously unsuccessful (previous fail)
5 c previous full settlement (previous full )
6 d previous partial settlement (previous partial)
7 e previous ceasefire (previous cease)
8 f previous offered only (previous offered ).
9 4 Our dependent variables include:
0 a agreement (1 = full, partial or ceasefire agreement; 0 = failure)
1 b full settlement (1 = full; 0 = all else)
2 c settlement (1 = full or partial settlement; 0 = ceasefire or unsuccess-
3 ful)
4 d multinomial = ceasefire, partial settlement, full settlement or unsuccessful
5 (unsuccessful is always the missing category).
6 5 Conflict intensity (our dispute population selector)
7 a high casualties.
8
9
Mediators get the hard disputes
0
1 As we have previously shown, a selection process results in mediators getting
2 the tough cases (Gartner and Bercovitch, 2006; see also Greig, 2005).
3 Further demonstrating the effects of selection, here we present a new bivari-
4 ate analysis of all conflict management efforts (those that are either medi-
5 ated or negotiated) that shows that mediation is strongly and negatively
6 correlated with the likelihood of an agreement (shown in Table 2.2). The
7 dependent variable agreement identifies a ceasefire, partial or full settlement
8 (45 percent), compared with an unsuccessful effort (55 percent). We see in
9 the analysis that in comparison to disputes where the parties are able to
40 negotiate terms by themselves, mediated conflicts are much less likely to
41 result in any type of agreement.
42 The results from the selection process captured by the findings in
43 Table 2.2 do not mean that mediation causes or even leads to the failure
44 of conflict management efforts to generate an agreement. Rather, it
45 reflects the fact that mediation is costly (using a very catholic notion of
Another random document with
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my disposition and that of the Commander (Captain Harris) by this
harsh treatment of me; a kind of experiment, in fact, to see what
would be borne by us, and how far he had limited his authority by
attaching his signature to the treaty. Any idea of granting public
benefit, at the expense of his prerogative was never entertained for
a moment, the intentions of the King being limited to shewing
personal favour alone, which he is ever ready to concede even now
to English travellers, much as he complains of the conduct of the
Mission in Shoa as regards their political misdoings; more especially
of the great insult offered to him by the unfortunate letter before
alluded to, and which was worded so unguardedly, that the King, on
receiving it, might well, considering his great regard for Mr. Krapf
previously, turn to him and say, in a tone that implied more of
sorrow than of anger, “Did you write that, my father?”
 CHAPTER III.
Staying at Farree with Mr. Scott.—​Both placed under parole.—​
Description of the houses of Farree.—​Of the flour mill.—​Some
remarks upon the origin of the Amhara.—​Dr. Prichard upon
identity of the Amhara with the Antomali of Herodotus.—​Physical
characters of the people.—​Interview with the Wallasmah.—​
Saltpetre rock.—​Province of Efat.—​Take leave of Escort.—​
Tyrannical conduct of the Wallasmah.
May 26, 1842.—After Mr. Scott joined me at Farree, I considered that
all my troubles were at an end, although I had still to go above fifty
miles before I could meet the members of the British Political
Mission who had accompanied the King to his residence at
Angolahlah, the most western town of his dominions. An
establishment was still kept up at Ankobar, situated about one third
of the way between Farree and Angolahlah, at the head of which
was the naturalist attached to the Mission, Dr. Roth, with whom was
Mr. Bernatz, the artist, and there also Mr. Scott was stationed.
Captain Harris the Ambassador, Captain Graham, the second in
command, and Mr. Assistant-Surgeon Kirk, lived at Angolahlah,
where I now expected to be permitted to go by my gaoler the
Wallasmah. I found, however, I was reckoning without my host, for a
new difficulty had arisen, from the circumstance of Mr. Scott having
come down to Farree without the permission of Walda-anna, the
Governor of Ankobar. He was accordingly given to understand that
he must consider himself a prisoner with me until the pleasure of the
negoos should be known as to our disposal. It was in vain we
expostulated with our surly gaoler; we were to be opposed by force
if we attempted to leave Farree, and other sentinels were charged
with the care of us. Something we did effect, and that was the
liberation of the messenger who was detected bringing me a letter
the day before, for as soon as this request was made to the
Wallasmah it was at once acceded to, and the man was ordered to
be set at liberty. Taking this as an evidence of some relaxation of the
harsh treatment with which we had been treated, we sat sometime
chatting with the old gentleman, and I hinted my intention of
making him some present if he would honour me so far as to accept
of my poor gifts. When we got up from the ground where we had
been sitting, the Wallasmah directed his son, a fine young man
about three or four and twenty years old, to accompany us to our
residence; a sufficient intimation of his being graciously disposed,
without the broad hint given by one of his followers, who whispered
into the ears of Mr. Scott, “Give your memolagee to that man.” Our
imprisoned servant not making his appearance before we left the
Wallasmah, we asked where he was, and were surprised to hear that
he had left Farree for Angolahlah without seeing us, but which we
supposed he had been obliged to do, so that there should be no
chance of our slipping a note into his hands for our friends in that
town.
We returned to our house, and for the rest of the day amused
ourselves with hearing and telling whatever most interested us,
whether of home or foreign news. I must observe that a present of
three pieces of calico and a pound of gunpowder was made to the
Wallasmah, who sent us back his compliments, and that he was
highly delighted with the present, but would be obliged for a little
more gunpowder.
Mr. Scott and I were entertained and taken care of for four days
in Farree, much to our discomfort and vexation. Fortunately this
gentleman had brought with him two native servants, who made
themselves useful by marketing and cooking during the term of our
confinement, so we suffered nothing from want of food. We could
also walk about the straggling town on pledging our word that we
would not attempt to escape, although our parole was not deemed
sufficient, for, like Buonaparte at St. Helena, two sentinels, on such
excursions, always followed at a certain distance in our rear.
 Many of the houses in Farree, instead of being the usual circle of
closely placed sticks, some five feet high and surmounted by a high
conical straw roof, are partial excavations in the soft trachytic stone,
so as to leave a back and sides of natural rock. Over this is laid a flat
roof, consisting of untrimmed rafters covered by a thick layer of
brushwood, upon which is placed a layer of earth some inches in
thickness, well stamped down with the feet. A front of wattled sticks,
in which the entrance is made, completes the house, and in one
such as this was I lodged during my stay in this town.
The internal arrangements were equally simple. A raised platform
of stones and clay, about two feet high, occupied one half of the
single apartment, and upon one end of this, reaching to the roof,
stood a huge butt-like basket, smoothly plastered over inside and
out with clay. This was the family granary, in which was preserved
the teff seed, or wheat, from the depredations of the numerous mice
that are a thorough pest in Abyssinia. In a corner below, stood side
by side two of the peculiar handmills used in this country, each
consisting of a large flat stone of cellular lava, two feet long and one
foot broad, raised upon a rude pedestal of stones and mud, about
one foot and a half from the ground. The rough surface of this stone
sloped gradually down from behind forwards into a basin-like cavity,
into which the flour falls as it is ground. A second stone, grasped in
the hand of the woman who grinds, weighs about three pounds,
beneath which, as it is moved up and down the inclined plane of the
under millstone, the grain is crushed, and gradually converted into a
coarse flour.
This is the same kind of mill that was used by the ancient
Egyptians, and is represented in the excellent work upon those
people, recently written by Sir G. Wilkinson, although he describes it
as being used for fulling clothes, having mistaken, I suppose, the
flour represented as falling into the cup-like recipient for a stream of
water. I observe, also, in another plate in the same work, a
representation of this mill, but without any allusion to its real
purposes. Moses, in the fifth verse of the eleventh chapter of
Exodus, describes exactly the character of the occupation, and the
instrument, where he speaks “of the maid-servant that is behind the
mill,” for women are only employed on this duty, and they always
stand in the rear, leaning forward over their work. Very few houses,
those only of the poorest people, have but one mill; generally two or
more stand side by side in a row, and the number is always
mentioned when the idea is wished to be conveyed of the large
dependent retinue that the master of the house feeds.
A few large jars containing water, or ale, ranged along one side of
the house, and a shield hung from the projecting end of one of the
sticks that formed the front, were the only articles that occupied
prominent positions as furniture in my residence. Three or four
“maceroitsh,” or earthenware pots for cooking, generally lay upset in
the white wood ashes contained in the large circular hearth that
occupied a portion of the floor opposite to the mills; and some of the
necessary but small instruments for clearing or spinning cotton were
placed when not being used upon a skin bag, in which a quantity of
that useful material was contained.
I was very much struck with the extreme contrasts that could be
drawn between the inhabitants of Farree and the Dankalli Bedouins.
The large and portly forms of the former, their apparent love of
quiet, the affection they evinced for their children, and that of the
children for their parents, were all points characteristic of these
great differences. The physiognomy of the two people exhibited
equally varying features, and as the men of Farree are a good type
of the real Amhara population, I shall endeavour to give an idea of
the form of the countenance and the head peculiar to this family of
man, by a description drawn from my first observations in that town,
where the people have less admixture of Galla blood, than the
inhabitants of the table land of Shoa above and beyond them.
This will be preceded, however, by some necessary, and, I
believe, novel information respecting the origin of the Amhara, which
I became acquainted with during my residence in Shoa, and which
has been singularly confirmed by a comparison of the reports and
prejudices I noted down while in that country, with recorded
circumstances of the earlier history of Egypt, and of other powerful
empires that once existed along the course of the Nile.
Amhara, which word is at present only used to designate the
Christian population of Abyssinia, was, previous to the introduction
of the Mahomedan religion, the descriptive appellation of an
extensive red people, who principally occupied the eastern border of
the Abyssinian table land, from the latitude of Massoah in the north
to that of lake Zui in the south. To the west of these, and occupying
the portion of the table land in that direction, lived a people
decidedly different in their complexion, their features, their
language, their religion, and their customs. These were the Gongas,
or Agows, who I believe to have been the original possessors of the
whole plateau, until a period remarkable in history, when the
Emperor of Meroë or Ethiopia located upon a portion of their
country, those disaffected soldiers of Psammeticus who had sought
an asylum in his kingdom. Were I not convinced that the Amhara
population of Abyssinia, at the present day, can be physically
demonstrated to be the descendants of these fugitives from Egypt, I
would not venture to advance such an innovation upon the generally
received opinion, that the Amhara are aborigines of the country they
now inhabit.
Under the term Abyssins, Dr. Prichard, in his invaluable work upon
the natural history of man, includes all the different nations that now
inhabit the lofty plain of Abisha or Abyssinia. Of one of these
nations, the Amhara, he remarks, “So striking is the resemblance
between the modern Abyssinians and the Hebrews of old, that we
can hardly look upon them but as branches of one nation, and if we
had not convincing evidence to the contrary, and knew not for
certain that the Abramidæ originated in Chaldæa, and to the
northward and eastward of Palestine, we might frame a very
probable hypothesis, which would bring them down as a band of
wandering shepherds from the mountains of Habesh, and identify
them with the pastor kings, who, according to Manetho, multiplied
their bands in the land of the Pharaohs, and being, after some
centuries, expelled thence by the will of the gods, sought refuge in
Judea, and built the walls of Jerusalem. Such an hypothesis would
explain the existence of an almost Israelitish people, and the
preservation of a language so nearly approaching to the Hebrew in
intertropical Africa.” The learned ethnologist goes on to observe—“It
is certainly untrue; and we find no other easy explanation of the
facts which the history of Abyssinia presents, and particularly of the
early extension of the Jewish religion and customs through that
country, for the legend which makes the royal house of Menilek
descend from Solomon and the Queen of Sheba, is as idle a story as
ever monks invented to abuse the reverent ignorance of their lay
brethren.”
Herodotus, and other ancient historians and geographers, have
recorded the migration of a vast body of discontented native soldiers
from Egypt, in the time of Psammeticus. These, we are told, to the
number of 240,000, retired to the country of Ethiopia, where they
were kindly received by the Emperor. They assisted him in his wars,
and in return were apportioned, as a residence, some country on the
confines of Ethiopia, from which they were to drive a rebellious
people to make room for themselves. Herodotus places this country
“upon the Nile, at about the same distance beyond Meroë as this last
is from Elephantine, or fifty days’ journey;” and he also adds, that
“the Antomali (deserters) are known by the name of Asmach, which,
being translated, signifies ‘standing on the left hand’ of the King.” It
is a most remarkable circumstance that the reason or origin of the
name of the country of Gurague, literally “on the left side,” has long
been a question of interest with every Abyssinian traveller, but none
have given any satisfactory explanation for what reason this
particular, and evidently significant, name was first applied. The
situation of the Amhara with respect to the Abi or Bruce’s Nile at
once accounts for the designation, as they live upon the left hand of
the stream as it flows south from lake Dembea, whilst that portion of
this people still retaining their ancient name and purity of descent,
the present Gurague occupy a country similarly situated with respect
to the river Zebee, or Azzabi, or Assabinus, the Ethiopian Jupiter. Abi
and Abiah, other names for branches of the Nile in Abyssinia, are
expressive of father or king, evidently from having been, at a former
period, the chief objects of worship by the people inhabiting their
banks. “Asmach,” and “Gurague,” bear, therefore, the same
interpretation, “to the left of the king,” and none other can explain
the circumstance of the latter name being given to the Amhara. It
appears, however to have been bestowed in contra-distinction to the
“Gongas,” or “Kongue,” a people who originally occupied the right
banks solely of the Abi and Abiah.
This singular correspondence between “Asmach” of the Grecian
historian, and “Gurague” of modern travellers, would be alone,
perhaps, inconclusive evidence that these terms apply to the same
people or country, but some additional evidence may be drawn from
the account which Pliny gives of these Egyptian fugitives. On the
authority of Aristocreon, he states, that “Seventeen days from Meroë
is Esar, a city of those Egyptians who fled from Psammeticus, and
entered the service of the monarch of that country, and in return
received a considerable tract of territory upon the confines, from
which the Ethiopian prince ordered them to expel a tribe of people,
at that time in rebellion against him, and this migration of the
Egyptian troops, introducing the arts and manners of a refined
nation, had a very sensible effect in civilizing the Ethiopians.” The
most interesting particulars we gather from this information, is the
name of the city, or, as I presume, the chief seat of these fugitives,
Esar.
By a singular coincidence in the Old Testament, we are told that
Esau is Edom, and although I am not going to infer from this alone,
any connexion between that patriarch and the Ethiopian city, Esar,
yet the philological analogy between the scriptural proper names,
curiously enough, also exists between those of profane history; for
the Esar and Amhara of our subject, express the very same idea as
Esau and Edom, which by all Biblical commentators, is allowed to be
the colour red. “And the first came out red, all over like an hairy
garment; and they called his name Esau.” (Genesis xxv. 25.)
 In the present Dankalli language, and I think also, in that of
ancient Meroë, Assar signifies red. In the Persian, I am given to
understand that the planet Mars is called Azer, from its characteristic
colour, a circumstance of significant import when it is considered
that the word Calla, from which is derived Galla, “Ab” the root of Abi,
and “Nil,” from which comes Nile, with others I have yet to speak of,
as designations of places in Abyssinia, are all referable to the same
language. To return, however, to Esar, and its connexion with the
colour red, for it is the same with Esau, and that it is the same as
Edom in Hebrew, I advance the testimony of Dr. Stukeley, who,
speaking of the Red Sea, remarks, “That sea had its name from
Erythras, as the Greeks and the same Pliny write; who is Edom, or
Esau, brother of Jacob. The words are synonymous, signifying
red.”[1] Amhara, also bears the same interpretation in Amharic, and
although it has another meaning, that of beautiful, this is only
because of the national taste directing the name of the favourite
complexion among them, to be employed as the term for beauty
itself. The Dankalli slave-merchant well understands this, for a light-
red Abyssinian girl is the Circassian of oriental harems. In Arabia,
where the original word still conveys the more common idea, we find
“hamah” employed to express the colour red.
In this manner, I connect the “Asmach” of Herodotus, with
Gurague of modern travellers, and the Esar of Pliny, with the Amhara
of the present day, and from these two mutually corroborating
correspondencies, the identity of the modern Abyssinians of Dr.
Prichard with the Automali of Herodotus may perhaps be deduced,
and the difficulty of accounting for a Hebrew people, situated on the
Abyssinian plateau only requires proof to be advanced that the
revolted soldiers of Psammeticus were of the same family of man as
the fugitive Israelites who sought a refuge, under nearly similar
circumstances, in Syria, and built the walls of Jerusalem; and as
their languages are nearly the same, as also their manners, customs,
and ancient religion, previous to the introduction of Christianity, it
will not, perhaps, be difficult to adduce such evidence. For my part, I
am inclined to believe in this national relationship, because it is
partly confirmed by the received account of the brothers, Esau and
Jacob, contained in the book of Genesis, and the connexion between
the two patriarchs, and the country of Egypt, will perhaps receive
some illustration from the opinion I have ventured to advance upon
the subject. In the elder brother, Esau, I perceive the father of the
royal shepherds, and among the list of the dukes, his descendants
may be found, perhaps the pastor kings who held for some time the
sovereign power in Egypt.
The connexion also of the name Esau, or Esar, with the profession
of soldiers, is evident, for in oriental mythology it is identified with
the god Mars; whilst on the other hand, the word Israel, in Hebrew,
I believe, as in Amharic has an immediate reference to labour, as the
name Jacob has also to the heel, which coincides very singularly
with the idea prevalent in India, that the labouring class have all
sprung from the foot of Brahmah. It would be very interesting, if
future discoveries in hieroglyphics, or other cotemporary histories,
which, I believe, do exist in central Africa, should prove that the
appearance of the Jews as a family of man, under the patriarch
Abraham, marks the disruption of an African community of castes,
where the Priest class, excited by the ambition of a Psammeticus,
should determine upon the expulsion of the soldiers, who thereupon
fled to Ethiopia; and, also, that after a tyrannical and cruel
oppression should ultimately occasion the flight of the workmen, or
Israelites, into Palestine. I leave the question, however, now, to
more profound ethnologists, and shall conclude this, I am afraid,
very uninteresting subject, with a short but necessary description of
the features and physical characteristics of the present Amhara
population of Abyssinia.
In the British Museum are many Egyptian statues that possess
exactly the features of the genuine Amhara race. One more,
especially of a woman in the lower saloon marked 16, I will
particularize, to enable those who have the opportunity of examining
these relics of an extinct nation to form a proper idea of the
physiognomy of the people I am speaking of.
 Their general complexion cannot be better described by reference
to a familiar object than comparing it with that of red unpolished
copper. Their skin is soft and delicate; the general stature is below
the middle height of Europeans. Their forms are not fully developed
until they have arrived at the same years of puberty as ourselves;
and it is very uncommon for women under seventeen to bear
children. The features of the women conform to a general
characteristic type, and less variations from this are observed among
them than in the men. This observation extends to other races
besides the Amhara, for I have invariably found more consistency of
countenance, more nationality preserved in the features of females
than in the males of the many different people I have met with in
my travels in Abyssinia.
The Amhara face is ovate, having a considerably greater
expression of breadth in the upper than in the lower part. The scalp
in front encroaches upon the forehead, making its length
disproportionate to its height, and, in consequence, it appears
exceedingly low. The eyes are long, but rather full, and the
separation of the eyelids longitudinal, as in Europeans. Their cheeks
are high, yet finely rounded, and sometimes, with the long forehead,
giving to the countenance a nearly triangular form. The nose straight
and well-formed, with a small and beautiful mouth, a finely-curved
edge gradually rising from the commissure to the fulness of a most
inviting pair of lips. A voluptuous fulness, in fact, pervades the whole
countenance; a something more than muscular fibre, yet not exactly
fat, giving a healthy fleshiness, that reminds you of the chubbiness
of children; and I expect the fascinating expression so generally
ascribed to Abyssinian beauties by all orientals is owing to the idea
of innocence and simplicity, that inseparably connects itself with this
infantile character of face. The hair is soft and long; it is neither
woolly, like the negro, nor is it the strong, coarse, straight hair of the
Gongas, or yellow inhabitants of the right bank of the Abi and Abiah
branches of the Azzabi, or red Nile.
I saw few or no cases of distortion among the families I met with
in Efat, and my impression is that they but rarely occur, the natural
and simple lives of the people conducing to easy parturition and a
healthy offspring. The Amhara, however, in their most unchanged
condition in Gurague, and the neighbouring Christian states, have
yet to be visited. The inhabitants of these countries may exhibit
characteristic traits that I have had no opportunities of observing, for
those I met with were the most favourable specimens of the
imported slaves, or their immediate descendants, who were married
to Mahomedans of Efat.
Individuals possessing what I believe to have been the
characteristic features of the genuine Amharic countenance are but
seldom seen on the high land of Shoa, although it might naturally be
expected that their situation would favour a lighter complexion than
the dark-brown Shoans exhibit. This is to be attributed to the very
recent period that their Galla ancestorial relations intruded
themselves into this former Amhara district, as Abyssinian history
records that the first appearance of these invaders from the low
plains of Adal occurred no later than the year 1537.
From the 27th to the 31st of May, Mr. Scott and I remained in
easy durance at Farree. We were frequently summoned to the
presence of the Wallasmah, whom we would amuse by firing off my
gun, or teaching his son, a boy about fourteen years old, to let off
percussion caps without shutting his eyes. The dreadful experiment
would never be attempted by papa, but he wonderfully enjoyed the
bright promise of his hopeful progeny, the child of his old age, who,
on the other hand, annoyed us not a little by the unsatisfied
pertness with which he demanded to be so indulged.
Day after day were we most solemnly promised that we should
start upon the morrow, but without any intention of being permitted
to do so, beyond the accident occurring of our being sent for by the
King. Perhaps our importunity excited a desire to gratify us, and
what they wished for our sake the kind-hearted people of Farree
asserted would be, because of the great probability that the
messenger who had been sent to the King to receive his commands,
would return sooner than he did.
 I am not going to acquit the Wallasmah on this plea, for his want
of courtesy towards us; for from some incomprehensible antipathy,
he would, had he dared, have placed us in irons, and even on
occasions of our visiting him, when we endeavoured to do
everything we could to please him, a surly smile was our only return
for some little gratification we might afford to his boy. His people
frequently made excuses for the conduct of their chief, by stating
that he either had been drinking, or else that he had not; so, drunk
or sober, it seemed quite natural to them that the old fellow should
be in a continual ill-humour from some undefined connexion with
strong drink.
I took care to promise him another present on the occasion of our
leaving Farree, as I conceived that it might be some expectation of
the sort that was operating to cause our tiresome detention. I was
wrong in this, for it was not his pleasure, but the King’s, his master,
that we should be kept at Farree, although he tried to make us
believe it was his own, and assuming an authority that did not
belong to him, made our confinement more irksome than it needed
to have been, on purpose to evince his power. With our sentinels
behind us, however, we could wander all over the hill of Farree, and
we accordingly amused ourselves by endeavouring to extend our
information upon the various subjects of novel interest with which
we were surrounded.
One observation I cannot do better than to insert here, respecting
the rocks and soil of Farree, which abound with the nitrate of potass,
the bald face of the former, in many places, being hollowed into
deep grooves by the constant attrition of the tongues of the
numerous flocks and herds, which seem to be as fond of this salt as
the same animals are of common table salt in other countries; a
circumstance that is well shown in those saline resorts of deer and
buffaloes, called the “licks” of North America. The geological
structure of the hills in this neighbourhood is a finely-grained
trachytic rock; grey, save where the intrusion of narrow dykes of
some blacker rocks, a few feet in thickness, and evidently heated on
their first appearance, has changed the general colour to a deep red,
which gradually recovers its natural hue at the distance of some
yards on either side the dyke. This rock contains a considerable
quantity of decomposing felt-spar, supplying the potass, and, I
presume, deriving from the atmosphere, and the moisture it
contains, the other necessary elements to form the thick
efflorescence of saltpetre that covers in some places the surface of
the rock.
The religion of Farree is exclusively Mahomedan, as is also that of
more than three-fourths of the towns and villages of the province of
Efat, all of which are under the hereditary viceregal Wallasmah, who
boasts a descent from the famous Mahomed Grahnè, the Adal
conqueror of many portions of the ancient Abyssinian empire, in the
sixteenth century. Efat forms a portion of the valley country, or
Argobbah, which extends from the edge of the table land of Shoa to
the Hawash, that flows along the base of this slope, from the south
towards the north. The northern boundary of Efat is the river Robee,
the southern one being the Kabani; both of them flow into the
Hawash.
Late in the afternoon of the 30th of May, the messenger returned
from Angolahlah, with orders from the King that I should be allowed
to proceed thither, and that the stores should be conveyed to his
presence. Considerable bustle and confusion seemed thereupon to
take possession of the previously quiet town. Vociferous
proclamations were from time to time issued by the misselannee in
person, standing upon the stone enclosure in the centre of the
market-place. Numerous informants, willing to be the first bearers of
good news, hurried to acquaint us with the cause of all the stir, and
to assure us that we were to start in the morning; for that the
requisite permission had arrived from the King, and the Wallasmah
had directed our mules to be brought in from the grazing ground.
The proclamations of the misselannee were to the effect that all
persons owing suit and service to the Wallasmah, on account of land
held of him, must present themselves; and either personally, or by
their slaves, convey the boxes and other packages as far as Aliu
Amba, on the road to Angolahlah, from which town a relief party
would then take the duty of carrying them the remaining distance.
From the character of the road, badly constructed and in
wretched condition, all the packages had to be conveyed up the long
ascent to Shoa upon the shoulders of men. Besides, the only beasts
of burden, except an occasional worn-out mule or horse, employed
by the Abyssinians, are asses, and these were found to be unequal
to the carriage of large angular-formed boxes, which, in fact, could
not have been properly secured upon the backs of these little
animals.
In the evening the Hy Soumaulee came to bid me good-bye,
objecting to the cold of Angolahlah, when I asked them if they did
not intend to visit me there. They shuddered at the thought of it,
and all business transactions, as regarded payment for their
services, were referred to the agency of the two heads of the
Kafilah, Ohmed Mahomed and Ebin Izaak, who were obliged, of
course, to present themselves to the Negoos Sahale Selassee, and to
the British ambassador.
I saw them depart with feelings of regret that I had no means in
my power to reward the services of these faithful, and I will add,
attached Bedouins; beyond bearing testimony to the great
capabilities of their people, who are possessed certainly of the
greatest virtues and of the noblest attributes of our nature, if judged
by the standard of human excellence contained in the Iliad or
Æneid, the heroes of which I would undertake to match with many
Dankalli warriors of the present day. During my stay in this town, it
was customary for them to come from Channo, where they were
quartered, to sit with me an hour or so in the cool of the morning or
the evening. On these occasions their appearance always gave me
pleasure, bursting into sight all at once as they chased each other
over the crest of the hill, their dark forms for a moment boldly
relieved upon the bright sky behind them; down they would come
full speed along the tortuous, but easy sloping descent across the
market-place and up the low bank to my residence, shouting as they
came, “Ahkeem, ahkeem,” to give me notice of their approach. On
entering, four or five of them, with their usual impetuosity, would
extend their hands for the sliding contact with the palm of mine, at
the same time calling out together the oft-repeated expression,
“Negarsee,” or “Myhisee,” which respectively characterizes the
evening or morning salutation.
It was after sunset of the last day we were at Farree, before the
Wallasmah sent for us to communicate the pleasure of the King, or
Negoos, as I shall call him for the future. We were ordered to
proceed to Angolahlah; and whilst we were talking, our mules were
brought up and delivered over to Mr. Scott’s servants, that we might
start as early as we pleased the next morning. The Wallasmah also
was ordered to attend at Angolahlah, which was one reason of his
having withheld the information of our departure from us until the
last moment. The summons which he was obliged to obey did not
exactly accord with his wishes, and a two days’ journey for an old
man of sixty years of age, we admitted was a sufficient reason for
the increased ill-temper with which he received the causers of so
much trouble when we visited him on the last occasion. I took with
me another pound of gunpowder and some more coloured cotton
cloth; and these had the good effect of restoring him to perfect good
humour: indeed, to show his regard for us, much to our surprise, he
directed some of his attendants to liberate the unfortunate
messenger who had been detected bringing me a letter the day
before Mr. Scott’s arrival, and who, we conceived, had returned to
Ankobar, according as had been stated on one of our first visits by
the Wallasmah himself. Instead of this being the fact, we now found
that the poor fellow had been the whole time confined in his
thatched lock-up, and supplied with a scanty fare of the worst kind
of bread and water. I felt very sorry for him when he came
staggering out of prison, with blood-shot eyes and squalid look; and
it was with feelings of pity rather than of contempt, that I witnessed
the broken spirited man, with shoulders bare, and with the most
abject submission, stoop and kiss the earth at the feet of his unjust
and tyrannical oppressor. The Wallasmah, with the penetrating
glance of suspicious cunning, read in my countenance the
detestation I felt at such unwarrantable conduct on his part, and
muttered in excuse, something about the man having been “one of
Krapf’s servants,” as if he considered that quite a sufficient pretext
for the harshest treatment. The Mahomedans of Efat fully believe,
that the exhortations of that zealous missionary alone prevented the
Negoos from changing his religion; as, shortly before his arrival in
Shoa, a Koran and a mollum to expound it to the Christian monarch,
had been sent for to the palace.
Mr. Scott and I were so astonished at seeing the man whom we
thought to be far distant, that we could not say anything. It would
have been a great relief to my indignation if I could have told my
thoughts to the old scoundrel, but this being out of the question, I
walked away as quickly as possible from his presence, followed by
Mr. Scott and our servants; and I do hope that our abrupt and
unceremonious departure annoyed him a little, and thus retaliated in
some measure for his contempt of, and disrespect towards us.
The politic Sahale Selassee, Negoos of Shoa, is well aware of the
character of the Wallasmah, and the value of having such an
imbecile ruling over the restless Mahomedan population of his
kingdom. A governor, indeed, of whom he may truly say, as our
Charles the Second did of himself and of his brother the Duke of
York, “That his subjects would never kill him to make the other
King.”
The inhabitants of Efat, much as they dislike the opprobrious
position of living under a Christian monarch, never entertain an idea
of revolting from the Negoos to place themselves under the power of
that vindictive drunkard the Wallasmah Mahomed; whose only claim
to their respect is his religion and his descent from the hero of
modern Abyssinian history, Mahomed Grahnè, of whose extensive
kingdom of Adal this little province of Efat, not so large as
Middlesex, is all that has remained to his family, and even that is
now a portion of the Christian state of Shoa.

FOOTNOTES:
[1] Dr. Stukeley. “Stonehenge, a British Temple,” page 53.
 CHAPTER IV.
Leave Farree for Ankobar.—​Description of the road.—​Aliu Amba.—​
Road to Ankobar.—​Incidents of the journey.—​Vale of the Dinkee
river.—​Valley of the Airahra.—​Effect of denudation.—​Ankobar.—​
British Residency.—​Start for Angolahlah.—​Ascent of the Tchakkah.
—​Road to Angolahlah.—​The town of Angolahlah.—​Meet superior
officers of Mission.
May 31st.—Long before the sun had appeared upon the horizon our
mules were saddled and bridled; the hotel bill for Mr. Scott and
myself duly discharged, by a present of two dollars to the owner of
the house where we had been entertained and imprisoned; farewells
were exchanged for the last time with some of my Kafilah friends,
and of my escort; and we were off on our journey to Angolahlah,
just as the distant elevated hills near Ankobar, and the ridge or line
of the table land of Shoa beyond these, were brightly gilded by the
first rays of the rising luminary. Steadily we descended the loose
stony declivity of the hill of Farree, then clattered more briskly along
a winding road that, taking us round the base of a much higher
eminence, shut us out entirely from the sight of the white tobed
townspeople, who sat along the edges of their own cliffs to watch
our progress so far on our journey.
We now descended a bank of about four feet high into the bed of
the stream, by whose denuding agency the rocky flanks of the
adjoining hills had been laid bare. Trees of irregular height, and of
very various foliage, bordered the broad pebbly channel, along
which a gently rippling brook meandered, its course opposed to ours
as it flowed to join the Hawash. Sometimes it scoured a little ledge
of gravel, or fell over and among high boulders, the evidences of its
power in the time of its fullest might, during the heavy rains of July
and August; when its swollen volume, yellow with suspended mud,
rushes along its then pent-up bounds, bearing before it rocks,
uprooted trees, and the rotting debris of jowarhee, beans, or teff,
from the upland fields which it has devastated in its course.
We rode for some time along the bed of the stream, following its
serpentine channel, until we turned upon its right bank, and began
to ascend a long gradual slope, which having overcome, only led us
to a descent equally irksome, both to riders and mules, from its
continued inclination downwards. At its base we crossed another
stream, and then began to climb another height, and then came
again the equally tiresome descent on the opposite side. And thus
we proceeded for at least four hours, alternate hill and stream in
regular succession, until we arrived at Aliu Amba; a village perched
upon a flat-topped isolated rock that, nearly at right angles with the
road, juts across the upper end of a pretty little valley, along which
we had been coming for the last half hour.
When we had managed to scramble over a series of irregular and
quite naturally disposed stone steps, and had gained the level
summit of this ridge, I turned to look in the direction from whence
we had come, and contemplated it with great satisfaction;
congratulating myself at having got two-thirds of the heavy business
over of ascending the long flight of hill steps which, gradually
increasing in elevation, form a kind of giant staircase from our
starting place at Farree to the table land of Shoa.
At Aliu Amba we met numbers of Christian Abyssinians, and were
taken to the house of the Governor, also a Christian, but who was
absent in attendance upon the King. Every civility was paid to us,
and numerous were the inquiries made after Lieut. Barker, who, it
appears, had taken up his residence in this town some months
previous to his return journey. I was glad to be able to say that I
had had a personal interview with him, for I could see, that to be
the “Woodage Kapitan,” friend of the Captain, as he was called in
Shoa, was a great recommendation; and although a lengthened
levee, with a crowd of people whose language you cannot
understand, is a terrible bore, still smiling faces, and a friendly
welcome, in a strange country, from whatever cause, does the
traveller’s heart good, and encourages him to proceed on his
undertaking.
We halted for nearly two hours at Aliu Amba, not being able to
get away before, as a sheep had been killed, and our servants were
determined to take advantage of the hospitality of the townspeople.
When their hunger was satisfied, they brought us our mules, for
which we had been asking some time in vain, as Mr. Scott and I
were anxious to breakfast, if we could, at Ankobar with Dr. Roth, and
Mr. Bernatz the artist to the Embassy, A large concourse of the
principal people of the town accompanied us across the market-
place to the edge of their little table hill, from whence they watched
us until shut out from view by the sinuosity of the narrow road,
which occupied the summit of a ledge separating the slopes of two
small rivulets, running in opposite directions around the hill of Aliu
Amba, to join each other in the valley in front.
We now rode between two delightful natural hedge rows of a low
thorny bush with dark green leaves, and-bearing clusters of a black
sweet berry; over which trailed in most luxuriant profusion a very
sweet scented jasmine; and pushing its way through this mass of
vegetation, high above all, flowered the common hedge rose of
England. Its well-remembered delicately blushing hue, so
unexpectedly greeting me here, elicited a feeling that, with but a
little more ardent sensitiveness in my nature, would have thrown me
on my knees before it, as Linnæus is said to have knelt to the
flowering furze, on first witnessing its brilliant blossoms in England.
The road now became most shockingly stony, strewed with
detached fragments of the cliffs around, as we approached the bluff
termination of the table land above us. A recent earthquake had
brought down considerable quantities, and no attempt had been
made to remove the blocks, travellers very patiently seeking out a
new path around them. In two or three places, where the detour
was too great, some desperate spirits had forced their mules or
donkeys to breast up the miniature precipices a few feet in height.
At one of these situations I dismounted, preferring to walk through
the delightfully hanging gardens on either side of me, and along an
embowered lane, where a dense shade, and numberless little
streams that traversed sometimes considerable distances,
contributed to the agreeable coolness of an elevation between 6,000
and 7,000 feet above the level of the sea. Here, as everywhere else,
where trees abounded, birds of all characters and colours gave
liveliness to the scene. One similar in size and plumage to our
sparrow, constructed pensile nests, dropping as it were from the
extreme boughs that nodded with these novel appendages. The
dove, slattern as she is, here also built her nest, a ragged stage of
sticks; whilst in the thick bush beneath, the prying traveller could
detect the round black speaking eye of some other little expectant
mother of the feathered race, as, with head thrown aside, she
confidingly and instinctively expects that the goodness of man’s
nature will not allow him to disturb her sacred functions; a pleasing
testimony it is to me, nature’s own evidence of the primitive
excellence of man, when he and all around were pronounced by the
Creator to be good.
Very soon tiring, however, in my weak state and on such a road, I
got on to my mule again, which, if she could have spoken, would
certainly have echoed the sentiment of the Portuguese traveller,
Bermudez, who, in the 16th century, describing the very same road,
represents it as giving him an idea of those in hell, from its
steepness and roughness. Our poor animals, in fact, were frequently
obliged to come to a stand-still to recover their breath; but they
soon set their faces to the steep rocks, and managed, in some way
or other, to surmount many very queer-looking places, without
shedding us into some uncomfortably deep water-cut precipices
that, as we got nearer to the end of our journey, began to be
exchanged for the verdant hedges of the previous portion. The
whole way we were constantly encountering herds of donkeys,
heavily laden with grain, which was being brought down from the
high land to be exchanged in Efat for cotton and salt. The men who
accompanied them were, to my surprise, much darker coloured than
the people of the lower country, tall, well made, and armed with
spear and shield. With loud cries they encouraged the patient
animals before them, to quicken their slow and cautious pace down
the stony descent. The friendly salutation as we passed was never
forgotten, nor did the laughing fast-talking girls who accompanied
them spare their smiles, which was quite a merciful dispensation,
that made our difficult and fatiguing ascent, much pleasanter than
would have been a macadamized road through a desert.
We at length reached a narrow tortuous ridge of at least a mile in
length, across which, a walk of but a few yards presented to the
view on either side, a deep and extensive valley. That on the left
hand is by far the narrower and more precipitous, being bounded by
the steep, almost perpendicular face of the opposite ridge of
Tchakkah, at the distance of about four miles; whilst that on the
right, is of a character exactly the reverse, a widely extending
amphitheatrical formed valley spreading from below the feet, far
towards the east.
From the summit of an inclined plane, eight thousand feet above
the level of the sea, the eye travels for sixty miles over hundreds of
little hills, embosomed in the widely diverging arc that defines the
bay-like valley, in which is contained the whole of the numberless
streams that, joining the small river Dinkee near to Farree, flow into
Lee Adu. This lake formed a bright feature of the scene, embosomed
in the dark green belt of forest that marks the course of the
Hawash; beyond which the sandy plains of Adal, blending with a
colourless sky, constituted an horizon in which sight was lost.
Between the two strongly contrasted yet equally beautiful scenes
I could have oscillated the whole day, had not I been reminded by
Mr. Scott that breakfast would be waiting for us at Ankobar. At this
touching appeal I urged on my mule, who now rested herself by a
gallop along the very level summit of the ridge that, like a natural
suspension bridge, is extended from the hill of Ankobar in the west
to that of Lomee on the south, and forms the boundary between
these bearings of the upper portion of the Dinkee valley.
 In two or three places I noticed that the otherwise narrow ridge
spread out into little flats of about fifty yards across. As we passed
the first of these, a small heap of stones, surmounted by a rude
wooden cross, indicated to the passer-by that a church was hidden
in the grove of kolqual and wild fig-trees that occupied the limited
expansion. Each of Mr. Scott’s servants most reverentially
dismounted to kiss the topmost stone, on which the cross stood. A
little beyond, the road again contracted, and from the back of my
mule, by merely turning my face, I could look into either valley on
my right or left hand. Along this path we proceeded cautiously in
Indian file, passing in one place the site of a devastated grove and
ruined church; the scarping effects of constant land-slips on either
side the ridge having in this position defeated all efforts of man to
prevent the destruction of the sacred edifice, its site having been
gradually removed during the process of denudation which is so
rapidly altering the physical features of this country. The eastern
face of the hill of Ankobar was now before us, the head of a
subordinate valley scooped out of that side of the ridge only
intervening. Having doubled this by continuing along our level road,
we scrambled over a rough precipitous ascent, fortunately only of a
few yards in extent, and entered a narrow lane or street between
high banks, on which stood a number of straggling thatched round
houses, each in its own enclosure. The road appeared to have been
worn into a hollow way by the constant passage of man and beast
during the many reigns since this hill became a royal residence.
Tradition asserts, and I believe Abyssinian recorded history
affirms, that the first occupier of this commanding height was a
Galla Queen called Anko, and by the addition of “bar”(door) to her
name, native philologists (and they are very curious in these
matters) have determined the designation of this town to be,
significant of its having been the gate or door of Anko. This is rather
an unfinished interpretation, as it omits to tell us what it secured;
and were it not that we had the circumstantial evidence that the
town stands upon the height commanding the only road leading
from the low countries to the table land of Shoa, we should be at a
loss for the real reason of its very apt name, which it must be
allowed to be when that circumstance of situation is known.
After threading our way for at least a quarter of an hour through
a labyrinth of high over-hanging banks, topped by ragged hedges, or
grey moss-covered palings of splintered fir, we at length reached a
large oblong or rather oval building, for one continuous circuit of a
wattled wall offered no angles to determine sides. This was covered
by an ample straw roof, with far-projected eaves, and having two
bright red earthenware pots at the extremities of the crest of the
roof, as a finish to the whole. This was the British Residency, and
gladly we dismounted to meet our expected friends. Turning aside
the green Chinese blind, which, suspended from the top of the
entrance, was sufficient to exclude the beggars, and yet admitted
some light into the interior, we gained admittance; and having
passed through a large central apartment, where mules, horses, and
sheep were stabled, I was conducted into a clay-plastered
apartment, about six feet by nine, between the inner and outer walls
of the building, where I found two gentlemen belonging to the
Mission, Dr. Roth, the naturalist, and Mr. Bernatz, the artist, just
about to commence their breakfast.
Greetings and congratulations were exchanged, and numberless
inquiries made about the cause of my detention at Farree. A host of
idle Abyssinian servants gathered around, questioning in like manner
the native servants of Mr. Scott, and it was sometime before we
settled down to partake of the good things which Constantine, the
Portuguese cook, during the bustle of our arrival, had taken the
opportunity to prepare.
Mr. Scott and I having determined to hurry on the same day to
Angolahlah, fresh mules were ordered to be ready by the time I had
sufficiently indulged in the luxury of something like English fare,
which, for the first time for nearly three months, was now placed
before me.
When we started, Mr. Scott volunteered to be guide, and so
excused his servants from being dragged on such an unnecessary
journey. Having got through the town of Ankobar, we began to
descend, progressing more rapidly after passing some distance along
the side of a high stockade surrounding the royal residence, which
occupied the whole summit of the partially detached western
extremity of the ridge on which Ankobar stands. The descent
continued for nearly half an hour, the road being exceedingly rough
and stony, until we came to the edge of the little river Airahra,
flowing into the Hawash, the stream of which by its denudation has
cut from the table-land of Tchakkah, the long narrow ridge which we
passed along during the ride to Aliu Amba.
Formerly the Airahra flowed into the Barissa, and was a tributary
therefore of the mighty Nile; but a singular natural operation has
effected an alteration in its course, and it now flows in an opposite
direction. Physical geography, I think, does not describe a similar
character of country as the surface of the table land of Abyssinia
presents, or the relative position it occupies in consequence with
surrounding countries. These must both be treated of before I can
give the reader the manner in which nature is gradually effecting
what former Abyssinian monarchs threatened to do, the turning of
the waters of the Nile from the direction of Egypt and the north, to
the Indian Ocean and the East. A mighty operation which is most
certainly going on, and which can be demonstrated, will in the end
drain the northern portion of Abyssinia, by a communication being
opened between the river Hawash and the Abi, or Bruce’s Nile. In
this place, however, any description would fail in the effect of
conveying a clear idea to the mind of the reader; but in a future
page, when more familiar with the country he is now travelling over
with me, I will endeavour fully to explain the manner in which this
curious process of natural engineering is being carried out.
We forded the Airahra a little beyond a square stone building with
a thatched roof, which was pointed out to me as the water mill, that
was erected by the two Armenians whom I met in Tajourah,
Demetrius and Joannes. Whatever ability was displayed in the
construction, but little judgment had been exercised in its situation,
for it stood at the bottom of a deep valley, at the distance of two
miles at least, by the circuitous and rugged road, from the town of
Ankobar: whilst, on the other side, to look up the ascent of the
Tchakkah would have certainly occasioned the fall behind of the cap
from off the head.
I do not believe the architects built it for any direct purposes of
utility, but to give the Negoos an idea of their mechanical skill. It is
now unemployed, if we believe some travellers, by reason of the
Jinn or demons, by whose power they say the Shoans believe the
mill was put in motion. This assertion is of the same character with
that which represents Sahale Selassee putting reverentially a pair of
vaccine glasses into an amulet, mistaking the instructions given for
their proper use, when it is notorious that for a great number of
years the analogous operation of inoculation has been practised in
Shoa. I can only say, that when windmills were described as being
much better adapted for the purposes of a people who principally
inhabit the summits of hills, Sahale Selassee so admired the idea
that I was almost afraid I should be obliged to construct one. So far
from the monarch supposing mills to be worked by demons, he
never troubled himself so much, in a conversation with me, as he did
to shew how closely he had observed every part of the mill that had
been put up, to learn its economy, and the manner in which its
effects were produced.
The most laborious employment of the women of Abyssinia is
grinding flour. Windmills to perform this duty would diminish
considerably the demand for female slaves in that country, and less
encouragement would be, therefore, given to the internal slave-trade
of Africa, whilst the prohibition of the export of slaves by
Mahomedans from the eastern coast, would extinguish the greater
part of the infernal traffic at once.
Immediately after crossing the Airahra we commenced a most
villanous ascent. I believe that, to be in daily use, and traversed by
hundreds of individuals, the Tchakkah road is unequalled in the
world for steepness, roughness, and everything else that can
contribute to make a road difficult and unsafe. Now a brawling
stream, rushing down into the Airahra, covers with a slippery slime
the bald face of the rock; here loose crumbling stones treacherously
detach themselves from beneath the struggling hoofs of the mule;
and there an actual cataract, of at least eight feet high, has to be
scrambled over, splashing through spray and the flying gravel
dislodged by the ascent. Zigzag parallels, as they are termed in
fortifications, are the exact description of the route we took up the
almost perpendicular cliffs; and our faces were alternately turned
nearly due north and south, as we succeeded in accomplishing some
ten or twelve yards in the traverse, at every turn we made, peeping
over into a deep abyss that yawned before us, and prevented our
ride from being extended longer in that direction. Often does the
merciful man here dismount from his tired mule, and sitting upon
some detached portion of rock, congratulate himself, as he gazes
downward, on having effected so much of his painful task; and as he
looks upward receives some encouragement to proceed, when he
sees the reward of perseverance, in the distant image of some
preceding traveller gradually rising in relief against the sky, then
suddenly disappearing over the lofty ridge where terminates his
labour.
It took us one hour to surmount this awful steep, which, had it
been some thousand feet higher, might not, perhaps, have been
unjustly compared with similar passes among the Alps; but even
then the comparison would hold no longer than the ascent, for,
arrived upon the summit, the stranger finds no descent but an
extensive table land spread before him, and he cannot divest himself
of an idea, that he has reached some new continent. A Scotch
climate, and Scotch vegetation, wheat, barley, and linseed, and yet
still in inter-tropical Africa; he feels as if there must be some
mistake, an idea of incongruity, not unlike what I experienced upon
seeing in a “united family of animals,” several rats seeking a warm
retreat beneath the fur of a cat. Everything, in fact, was different to
what I had expected, and the nearly black skins of the natives that
we met seemed to be unnatural in a country where a chill breeze
was blowing.
 Koom Dingi, the resting-stone, is a solitary remaining hexagonal
prism of grey columnar porphyry, some few feet in height, and
stands amidst the fragments of others, very conspicuously on the
extreme edge of the Tchakkah. Here it is usual for the weary
wayfarer after his ascent, to stop and refresh himself with the bread
no Abyssinian on a long journey fails to provide himself with, and
carries wrapt up in the long mekanet, or girdle, that surrounds his
loins.
Mr. Scott and myself, however, pushed on our mules, glad at
having got over the worst part of the road to Angolahlah, and willing
to make the best of our way before sunset, for it began to be a
question with my companion, if we should arrive before night at our
destination.
The country seemed highly cultivated, wheat and barley on all
sides growing close to our path; but no trees or hedge rows
enlivened with their verdure or fragrance, the bleak, moor-like scene
around. The farm-houses were few and far between, neither were
they so high nor so comfortable-looking as those of the clustered
villages, that crowned every little hill in the vale of the Dinkee, on
the other side of Ankobar. The walls were generally a circle of rough,
unhewn stones, about three feet high, supporting the usual conical
roof of straw. The smoke escaped in white wreaths from beneath the
eaves, or issued in a volume from the entrance, and had it not been
for some substantial and really English-looking stacks of grain
standing near, which prevented the idea of poverty being connected
with the apparent discomforts of these dwellings, the name of
hovels would have been far too superior a designation for them.
We met very few people on the road, but these had all of them a
great number of questions to put, if we would have stayed to listen.
We were also several times called upon to stop for the night at the
houses of people who ran after us to say, that they knew Mr. Krapf,
and that, consequently, we must be their friends, and partake of
their hospitality. Although shivering with cold, and nearly tired out,
we resisted all such temptations, proceeding at a gentle amble, for
which the mules of Shoa are famous, and after a long ride of seven
hours, just as the sun was setting, its last rays falling upon our
faces, the straggling but extensive town of Angolahlah suddenly
opened upon us, as we rounded the low shoulder of a ridge which
had been in sight for nearly the last hour.
Three extensive, but low hills of nearly equal height, and covered
with houses, enclose a triangular space, which forms the centre of
the town. Across this, Mr. Scott and I quickly galloped our mules,
pulling up opposite a white square tent, at the door of which had
already appeared Capt. Harris and Capt. Graham, the news of our
approach having been conveyed by a forerunner, who had observed
us in the distance.
A very pleasant evening followed; conversation upon home and
Indian news occupied the few hours before we retired to rest; and
amidst the luxuries and conveniences, so abundantly supplied to the
Embassy by the indulgent care of a liberal Government, I almost
fancied that I had returned to the pleasures and comforts of civilized
life. As my cloak, coats, and carpet, which constituted my bed, were
left at Farree, my courteous entertainer, Capt. Harris, supplied me
with an abundance of warm clothing for the night, and I slept well in
an adjoining tent, of black worsted-cloth, manufactured by the
Abyssinians.
Unfortunately, amidst all his kindness, Capt. Harris considered it
to be his duty to take notes of my conversation, without my being
aware in the slightest degree of such a step, or being conscious of
the least necessity for his doing so. On my becoming aware of this
circumstance, a few weeks after, by the distortion of a most innocent
remark of mine, which was imputed to me in a sense that I never
dreamt of employing it, I retorted in a manner that led to further
proceedings; and from that time all intercourse between the
members of the Embassy and myself ceased for some months.