Probability

▪ When you ask yourself the question as to whether you

believe that you can make it through the amber light,
the answer may be "probably." That is, you believe
that you can make it across the intersection, but you
still may have some doubt.
▪ The concept of probability is used to quantify this
measure of doubt. If you believe that you have a 0.99
probability of getting across the intersection, you have
made a clear statement about your doubt.
▪ The probability statement provides a great deal of
information, much more than statements such as
"Maybe I can make it across," "I should make it
 across," etc.

METHODS OF COUNTING
When we toss a coin we do not know the outcome. Let
us refer to this process of tossing the coin as an
experiment.
A random experiment is an experiment in which the
outcome on each trial is uncertain and distinct.
Examples of random experiments are rolling a die,
selecting items at random from a manufacturing
process to examine for defects, selection of numbers
by a lottery machine, etc.
When we toss a coin, we have two possible outcomes,
summarized by {H, T). When a child is born, the child is
either a boy (B) or a girl (G), summarized by {B, G). If we
consider a two child family; the possibilities can be
summarized by {BB, BG, GB, GG). In each case, the outcomes
enclosed in { ) include all the possible outcomes. Such a list is
called a sample space (S).
The sample space for an experiment is the list or set of
all possible outcomes for the experiment. An event (E) is a
subset of the sample space. Each outcome in a sample space
is an event. These events are called simple events.
To find the number of events and
number of sample space one may do a complete
listing of the elements and count all the
outcomes explicitly for events E and the sample
space S. This, however, may be difficult and time
–consuming for cases when there are many
possible outcomes of the experiment. Moreover,
only the number of elements of E and S are of
interest and not the actual elements. Thus, we
need techniques or methods for determining
N(E) and N(S). These techniques are referred to
as methods of counting.
1. The Fundamental Counting
Principle or Multiplication
Principle
Suppose that a task involves a sequence of k choices. Let
n1 be the number of ways the first stage or event can
occur and n2 be the number of ways the second stage
or event can occur after the first stage has occurred.
Continuing in this way, let nk be the number of ways
the kth stage or event can occur after the first k - 1
stages or events have occurred. Then the total
number of different ways the task can occur is n1...
n2... n3... nk ways.
Example 1
How many 3 digit numbers can be made using the
five digits 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 when
a.) repetitions are not allowed, and
b.) repetitions are allowed
Solution:
a. There are five choices for the first digit, 4 for the next
digit, and 3 for the third digit. Therefore, 5 x 4 x 3 = 60
three digits can be formed. No number is repeated.
b. With repetitions, there are 5 choices fro the first digit,
also five for the second, and again 5 for the third.
Hence, 5 x 5 x 5 = 125 three digit can be formed.
Repetitions of a number was made.
A girl has 3 coins in her pocket, one 25-centavo coin,
a peso coin, and a 5-centavo coin from which she
will draw two coins to pay some candies. What are
the probable outcomes of the coins?
 Addition Principle
Suppose an operation can be done in n 1 ways, a second
operation in n2 ways and so on to a kth operation that
can be done in n k ways. If these operation cannot be
done at the same time or simultaeously, then there is
a total of n 1 + n2 +...+nk ways.

3. Permutation
⮚ An ordered arrangement of all or part of given set of
objects. The pattern of arrangement is specific, not
just any order of arrangement.
The number of permutations of n distinct
 objects taken r at a time (1≤ r ≤ n), denoted by nPris

(n
Pr=
n
-r)!
n!
Remarks:
1. By definition, 0! = 1 and 1! = 1
2. If r = n, the number of permutations that
may be done is n!
3. The order in which the objects come into
the group is considered important. 4.
 Permutation and combination rules may
be used in determining the n k’s in the
multiplication principle or in the
addition principle.
Permutations of Objects taken All
Together
The number of permutation P of n distinct objects
is P = n !
Example:
1. In how many specific ways can three books ; Statistics,
 Algebra and Biology be arranged on a shelf?

Solution: Tree Diagram

3 x 2 x 1 = 6 or
P = n! = 3! = 6
1. How many different arrangements of
letters can we form from the word
“MAPHY”?

Solution: n = 5!

P = n! = 5! = 120 different arrangement of

letters
Permutation of n Objects Taken r
at a Time
The number of permutations of a set of objects from
a set of n different objects, taken r at a time, without
replacement is,

(n
Pr=
n
-r)!
n!
Example
1. How many 5-letter words can be formed from the
word “FORMALITY”? By “words” we mean any
combination of five letters, even they mean
nothing.
Solution: n= 9;r=5
n! ===
P
9!
 15,120 "words"
()()
nr
n -r ! 9 -5 !
2. How many permutations of 5 cards are there from
a deck of 52 cards?

52! ==
P
311,875,200
()
nr
 52 - 5 !
3. In how many ways can a coach assign the starting
positions in a basketball from nine equally qualified
men?
Permutation of n Objects Not All
Distinct
The number of permutations P of n things taken all
together all at time, when there are n1things of a kind,
n2 of things of another kind, n3things of a third kind,…
nkthings of a kth kind is
 n
P=!
n1 2 3 k !n !n
!...n !

Example
1. How many permutation can be made from the
word “CONCOCTION”?
2. A man flip a ten coins among his ten children. The
coins are 2 10-cents, 3 25-cents, 4 5-cents and one
peso coin. If each of them is to get one coin, in how
many ways can the children share the coins?

Circular Permutation
The number of permutations n distinct objects arranged
in a circle is
P = (n – 1) !

1. In how many ways can eight guests be seated in a

round table with eight chairs?
2. In how many way can they be joined if there are 50
beads of different colours to form a necklace?
4. Combination Rule
❑A combination refers to selection of objects with
no attention given to their order of arrangement.

A combination is actually a partition of two cells,

one cell having the r objects selected and the other
containing the n-r objects that are left from the set
of group.
Distinguishing a Permutation
 from a Combination
Given a club with 10 members,

a.) in how many ways can the offices of

presidents, secretary, and the treasurer be
filled?

b.)In how many ways can a committee of 3 be selected?

Combination of n Objects Taken
r at a Time
The number of combinations is equal the number of
subsets of r elements that can be formed from a set of
n 0bjects is :

⎜ n ⎞ n!
⎝⎛
n Cr⎟=
= rr⎠
!(n
 -r)!
Combination in a Series
The total number of combinations of n things taken
successively 1 at a time, 2 at time, 3 at time, and so
on up to n at a time is:
n
C + C + C
n 1 n 2 n 3 +… C
n n = 2 –1

1. In how many ways can a teacher assign at most six of

her students to do a project?
2. How many committees can be formed from 5 people,
of the committee consist of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 members?