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UNIT3 Binomial

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12 views

UNIT3 Binomial

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yashsingh100304
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Definition: A distribution representing the number of successes in a fixed number of independent

Bernoulli trials(s a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes, "success" and "failure“), each
with the same probability of success.

Binomial Distribution in Environmental Studies

•Application: The binomial distribution can be used to model the probability of a certain number of
successes in environmental monitoring programs, where you are observing a fixed number of trials, such
as testing a sample of sites for pollution.
•Example:
• Pollution Sampling: Suppose you test n water samples from a lake for contamination (success =
presence of contaminants). The probability p is the likelihood that any given sample is
contaminated. The binomial distribution can help determine the probability of finding exactly k
contaminated samples out of n total samples.
• Species Conservation: Estimating the survival rates of endangered species in a habitat can be
modeled with a binomial distribution, where p represents the survival probability, and n represents
the number of species observed.
Poisson Distribution
Definition: Describes the probability of a given number of events happening in a fixed interval of time
or space, assuming that these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the
time since the last event.
Poisson Distribution in Environmental Studies
•Application: The Poisson distribution is commonly used to model the number of rare environmental
events (such as extreme weather events or natural disasters) that occur in a fixed time or space,
particularly when these events happen independently.
•Example:
• Extreme Weather Events: The number of heavy rainfall events occurring in a region over a
month could follow a Poisson distribution. The parameter λ represents the average number of
such events.
• Pollutant Exceedance: The number of times pollutant concentrations exceed a certain threshold
in a river over a year could be modeled using the Poisson distribution, assuming the events
happen at a constant rate.
Geometric Distribution
•Definition: Represents the number of trials needed to get the first success in repeated independent
Bernoulli trials with the same probability of success.

Geometric Distribution in Environmental Studies


•Application: The geometric distribution can be used to model the number of trials until the first
occurrence of an environmental event, such as the first detection of a rare species in wildlife monitoring or
the first extreme weather event in a certain season.
•Example:
• Species Detection: If you're searching for a specific endangered species in different regions, the
geometric distribution could model the number of site visits needed to detect the species for the first
time.
• Rainfall Analysis: In drought analysis, the number of consecutive dry days until the first rainy day
could follow a geometric distribution.
Negative Binomial Distribution
Definition: Generalization of the geometric distribution, it represents the number of trials needed to achieve
a specified number of successes in repeated independent Bernoulli trials.

Negative Binomial Distribution in Environmental Studies


•Application: The negative binomial distribution is useful in situations where we want to model the
number of trials required to achieve a specific number of successes, especially when the data are
overdispersed (variance greater than the mean).
•Example:
• Species Abundance: In wildlife ecology, the negative binomial distribution can model the
number of samples needed to observe a certain number of individuals of a species, especially in
areas where the species is rare but clumped.
• Insect Infestation: The number of trees affected by a pest infestation until a certain number of
trees are infested could follow a negative binomial distribution if the infestation process is not
evenly spread out.
Hypergeometric Distribution
•Definition: Describes the probability of k successes in n draws from a finite population of size N, without replacement,
containing K successes.

Hypergeometric Distribution in Environmental Studies


•Application: The hypergeometric distribution is applied in cases where sampling is done without
replacement from a finite population, often in environmental surveys or ecological studies where the
population size is limited, and sampling reduces the available population.
•Example:
• Fish Population Estimation: If a certain number of fish are tagged in a lake (a finite population),
and a sample is taken later to estimate how many tagged fish are recaptured, the hypergeometric
distribution would be appropriate for modeling the number of recaptured fish.
• Soil Contamination: In an environmental study where soil samples are taken from a specific area
(finite population) to test for contamination, the hypergeometric distribution can model the
probability of finding k contaminated samples when drawing without replacement.
In a study to monitor contamination in a lake, water samples are collected from 10 different locations.
Each sample has a 30% chance of being contaminated with heavy metals. What is the probability that
exactly 4 out of the 10 samples will be contaminated?
In an urban air quality monitoring program, it is known that 20% of air samples exceed safe particulate
matter (PM2.5) levels. If 15 air samples are taken, what is the probability that 3 samples will exceed
the safe PM2.5 level?
In a conservation study, 60% of a particular species is known to survive the harsh winter. If 8
individuals of the species are monitored, what is the probability that exactly 5 will survive the
winter?
In an urban air quality monitoring program, it is known that 20% of air samples exceed safe particulate
matter (PM2.5) levels. If 15 air samples are taken, what is the probability that 3 samples will exceed the
safe PM2.5 level?
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is often used in environmental statistics to model the
occurrence of rare events over a fixed period of time or space. It is especially useful
when dealing with counts of events, such as the number of rare species sightings,
occurrences of extreme weather events, or pollutant exceedances.

Key Features of the Poisson Distribution:


1.Discrete Distribution: It models discrete occurrences, meaning it counts the number
of events.
2.Independence: Events are assumed to occur independently of each other.
3.Constant Rate: The average number of events in a fixed period or region (denoted
by the parameter λ) is constant.
4.Non-negative: The possible values are non-negative integers (0, 1, 2, etc.).
Poisson Probability Formula:

The probability of observing k events in a fixed interval of time or space is given by the
formula:

Application in Environmental Statistics:


1.Species Occurrence: The Poisson distribution can model the number of occurrences of a rare species in different
geographic regions.
2.Pollution Events: It can be used to count the number of days in a year when a pollutant exceeds a threshold value
in a certain region.
3.Natural Disasters: In environmental risk assessment, it is used to estimate the number of extreme weather events
(e.g., hurricanes, floods) occurring within a given time frame.
4.Water Quality Monitoring: Poisson models are applied to the number of times a water quality measurement
exceeds a safety limit.
5.Accident Counts: Environmental safety studies may use Poisson models to count the number of accidents or
hazardous events over a period.
1. Nature of the Events Modeled:

•Binomial Distribution: Used for events with two possible outcomes (success or failure) in a fixed number of

independent trials. Examples include flipping a coin, passing or failing a test, or whether it rains on a given day. •

Example: If you flip a coin 10 times, the binomial distribution can model the probability of getting exactly 5 heads.

•Poisson Distribution: Used to model the number of times an event occurs within a fixed interval of time or space

when these events happen independently and the probability of each event is very small (i.e., rare events). •

Example: The Poisson distribution can model the number of earthquakes that occur in a region in a year or the

number of emails received in an hour.

Conditions:
•Binomial Distribution:
• You have a fixed number of trials, n.
• Each trial results in one of two outcomes (success or failure).
• The probability of success, p, remains the same for each trial.
• The trials are independent (the outcome of one trial does not affect another).
•Poisson Distribution:
• The number of events or occurrences is not fixed but can be any non-negative
integer.
• The average number of occurrences (λ) is known over a fixed period or region. •
The probability of an event occurring in a very short time interval or small region is
very small, and the events occur independently.
When to Use:
•Binomial Distribution:
• Used when you have a fixed number of independent trials.
• Suitable for situations where you are counting the number of successes (or failures) in these trials. •
Example: The number of defective items in a batch of 20 items, where each item has a probability ppp of
being defective.
•Poisson Distribution:
• Used for counting the number of events that occur over a continuous interval of time or space.
• Suitable for modeling rare events with a known average rate.
• Example: The number of phone calls received by a call center in an hour, assuming the rate of calls per
hour is constant.

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