TYPE Original Research

PUBLISHED 08 September 2023

DOI 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1228817

An increasing trend in daily

OPEN ACCESS monsoon precipitation extreme
EDITED BY
Haipeng Yu,
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),
indices over Pakistan and its
China

REVIEWED BY
relationship with atmospheric
Bushra Khalid,
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),
China
circulations
Muhammad Shahid,
National University of Sciences and Waheed Ullah 1,2, Aisha Karim 2,3, Sami Ullah 3, Atta-Ur Rehman 3,
Technology (NUST), Pakistan

*CORRESPONDENCE
Tehmina Bibi 4, Guojie Wang 2*, Safi Ullah 5,6, Asher Samuel Bhatti 7,
Guojie Wang, Gohar Ali 8, Adnan Abbas 2, Daniel Fiffi Tawia Hagan 2,
[email protected]
Isaac Kwesi Nooni 9, Chenxia Zhu 2 and Azfar Hussain 10
RECEIVED 25 May 2023
1
ACCEPTED 30 August 2023 Defense and Security, Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2Collaborative Innovation
PUBLISHED 08 September 2023 Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC–FEMD), Nanjing University of
Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China, 3Department of Geography, University of
CITATION
Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan, 4Institute of Geology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir,
Ullah W, Karim A, Ullah S, Rehman A-U,
Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, 5Environmental Science and Engineering Program, Biological and Environmental
Bibi T, Wang G, Ullah S, Bhatti AS, Ali G,
Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal,
Abbas A, Hagan DFT, Nooni IK, Zhu C and
Saudi Arabia, 6KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative (CLI), King Abdullah University of Science and
Hussain A (2023), An increasing trend in
Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, 7Department of Geology, Bacha Khan University Charsadda,
daily monsoon precipitation extreme
Charsadda, Pakistan, 8Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan, 9Binjiang College,
indices over Pakistan and its relationship
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Wuxi, China, 10International Research Center
with atmospheric circulations.
on Karst Under the Auspices of UNESCO, Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological
Front. Environ. Sci. 11:1228817.
Sciences, Guilin, China
doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1228817

COPYRIGHT
© 2023 Ullah, Karim, Ullah, Rehman, Bibi,
Wang, Ullah, Bhatti, Ali, Abbas, Hagan,
Nooni, Zhu and Hussain. This is an open- This study assessed spatiotemporal trends in daily monsoon precipitation
access article distributed under the terms extremes at seasonal and sub-seasonal scales (June, July, August, and
of the Creative Commons Attribution
License (CC BY). The use, distribution or
September) and their links with atmospheric circulations over Pakistan. The
reproduction in other forums is study used observed precipitation data from fifty in-situ stations and reanalysis
permitted, provided the original author(s) products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
and the copyright owner(s) are credited
and that the original publication in this
(ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National
journal is cited, in accordance with Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) during 1981–2018. A suite of
accepted academic practice. No use, seven extreme precipitation indices and non-parametric statistical techniques
distribution or reproduction is permitted
which does not comply with these terms.
were used to infer trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation
indices. An increase in frequency and intensity of overall extreme indices was
evident, with a maximum tendency in the country’s northwestern (z-score=>2.5),
central, and eastern (z-score > 4) monsoon-dominant parts. The northern and
southwestern parts of the country exhibited a slight decrease (z-score <–2) in
frequency and intensity. The Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE) shows an increase in
western parts (0.20 days) indicating a shift in the maxima of the monsoon
precipitation. The regional precipitation shows an increase in wet days (R1 mm)
with higher values of mMK (3.71) and SSE (0.3) in region 2 Similar results of
moderate regional increase are evident for extreme indices except regions 1 and 3.
The extreme 1-day maximum precipitation increased in region 3 (mMK: 1.39, SSE:
2.32). The extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation has a moderate increase in
all regions with a decrease in region 1. The temporal mutations showed dynamic
changes, clearly reflecting the country’s historical extreme events. The frequency
and intensity of precipitation extremes negatively correlated with the altitude
(R = −0.00039). The probability density function (PDF) showed a significant

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Ullah et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1228817

increase in the density during June and September with a probabilistic positive shift
during July and August. The intensified mid-latitude westerlies and subtropical
zonal easterlies teleconnections, strengthening of the monsoon trough, and land-
ocean thermal contrast are the potential drivers of the increasing trend in
precipitation extremes. The current study could serve as a benchmark for future
researchers and policymakers to devise effective mitigation strategies for
sustainable development.

KEYWORDS

extreme precipitation indices, sub-seasonal precipitation extremes, westerlies

teleconnections, south asian high, Pakistan

1 Introduction decreasing trend in the southern coastal belt and central Indus basin
(Abbas et al., 2014; Amin et al., 2017; Ali et al., 2019). In another study,
Anomalous precipitation patterns at intra-seasonal and inter- Befort et al. (2016) reported that the country’s northern and
annual scale result in hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods northeastern plateaus had experienced an increasing trend in
and droughts (Ullah et al., 2021b; Lu et al., 2021; Yu et al., 2023; monsoon precipitation. Hussain et al. (2023a) and Bhatti et al.
Zhang et al., 2023). Likewise, the Sixth Assessment Report of the (2020) also explored an overall increase in daily precipitation
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6) stated extremes from rain-gauge observation over Pakistan. Such increasing
that anthropogenic global warming increased the frequency and trends in monsoon precipitation and its extremes are also reported in
intensity of precipitation extremes globally (IPCC, 2022). These eastern and western India (Vinnarasi and Dhanya, 2016; Sharma et al.,
extremes threaten human life, agriculture, water resources, 2018; Venkata Rao et al., 2020), China (Ding et al., 2019; Shen et al.,
biodiversity, and sustainable development (Khan et al., 2020; 2022a; 2022b) and central Asia (Wei et al., 2023).
Ullah et al., 2022a). South Asian (SA) countries, including The large-scale circulation patterns, including the Rossby waves,
Pakistan, are at peak risk due to water and energy cycle changes mid-latitude, and sub-tropical teleconnections, are linked to the historic
(Eckstein and Kreft, 2020; Hussain M. et al., 2023). Therefore, flooding events of the region (Ullah et al., 2021b). The synoptic heavy
assessing the nature and magnitude of changes in extreme and precipitation events over western India and Pakistan are mostly due to
mean precipitation over SA countries has been the subject of several the long-lived low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal (Kale, 2012;
studies in recent years (Raghavan et al., 2012; Turner and Hunt and Fletcher, 2019). The continental precipitation recycling and
Annamalai, 2012; Dahri et al., 2016; Naveendrakumar et al., evapotranspiration increase the moisture contents of the lower
2019; Almazroui et al., 2020; Syed et al., 2022; Abbas et al., 2023b). troposphere for enhanced precipitation (Martius et al., 2013; Pathak
In Pakistan, two dominant precipitation patterns are primarily et al., 2017). The dynamic mountain’s ascent from extratropical waves
attributed to westerlies during the winter season (from December to influences the localized convective events, resulting in a heavy
the end of March) and summer monsoon season (from the end of downpour (Ullah et al., 2021b; 2021a). The mid-latitude blocking
June till September) (Hanif et al., 2013; Ullah et al., 2018a; Abbas and quasi-stationary synoptic waves from the Tibetan Plateau are
et al., 2023b). The SA monsoon dominates Pakistan’s climate; about continental sources, amplifying the regional precipitation extremes
65% of the total annual precipitation is received during the monsoon and enhancing moisture transport (Webster et al., 2011; Lau and
season (June to September) (Waqas and Athar, 2019; Ullah et al., Kim, 2012; Rasmussen et al., 2015). Moreover, consistent atmospheric
2021b; Abbas et al., 2022). The drought period of the late 1990s and blockings and westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical
the historic flooding event of 2010 and 2022, as examples, resulted in High (WPSH) due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are further
losses with severe impacts on crop production, gross domestic anticipated with extreme precipitation events over the region (Hong et al.,
product (GDP), livelihoods, and water resources (Rahman and 2011; Mujumdar et al., 2012; Yamada et al., 2016).
Khan, 2011; Xie et al., 2016; Ullah et al., 2019a; Rahman Z. U. The above-cited literature has provided a detailed overview of
et al., 2023). The increase in precipitation in the historical and future the changes and variability in extreme and mean precipitation and
projections is obvious (Ahmad et al., 2018; Bhatti et al., 2020; Abbas their potential drivers. However, the sub-seasonal (monthly)
et al., 2023a; Rebi et al., 2023), yet deviation of monsoon precipitation extremes’ nature and variability have not been
precipitation on a sub-seasonal scale has significant impacts on explored. The historic flooding events of 2010 and 2012 in
food security and socioeconomic conditions. Pakistan resulted from a synoptic-scale heavy downpour,
Changes in the regional hydrometeorological cycle of Pakistan have resulting in serious flooding and losses on a wide spectrum
been extensively studied, reporting an overall increase and westward (Webster et al., 2011; Rahman K. U. et al., 2023; Ishaque et al.,
shift in the mean (Hanif et al., 2013; Latif and Syed, 2016; Ullah et al., 2023). Similarly, the region’s catastrophic drought episode of
2018a; Preethi et al., 2019; Ali S. et al., 2020). These changes affected the 1997–2002 resulted from an anomalous decrease and shift in
country’s aridity, cropping patterns, eco-environmental, and seasonal precipitation for an extended period. The changes in
socioeconomic conditions (Rahman and Khan, 2011; Befort et al., water and energy cycles are extensively studied and attributed to
2016; Arshad et al., 2017; Fahad and Wang, 2019; Ullah et al., global warming, which profoundly affects regional aridity, flood, and
2022a). The monsoon precipitation magnitude has shown an drought patterns. However, the flood and drought phenomena
increasing trend in northwestern and southeastern Pakistan while a resulting from extreme sub-seasonal precipitation events are not

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FIGURE 1
(A) Land cover classes and (B) digital elevation model (DEM) shows different elevation classes of Pakistan. The rectangles show the selected regions
for aggregate average trend analysis.

fully explored in Pakistan. The current study has thus, attempted to Figure 2 shows Pakistan’s annual water cycle and interannual
explore the trend in daily monsoon precipitation extremes using mean precipitation averaged from the Pakistan Meteorological
observed precipitation data during 1981–2018. The underlying Department (PMD) observatories during 1981–2018. Two
changes in the circulation patterns, convective activities, and dominant precipitation peaks (Figure 2A) can be seen during the
relative humidity are further assessed to identify the potential annual water cycle, indicating the winter westerlies and the summer
drivers of the anticipated trend in precipitation extremes. monsoon. As in Figures 2A–C, a clear transition can be observed in
precipitation from the north (>70 mm) to the south (20 mm) and
west (80 mm) to the east (60 mm) of the country during the winter
2 Study area and spring. This transition is due to the westerly weather system,
originating from the Mediterranean Sea, mostly active in Pakistan’s
Pakistan is located in the tropical to subtropical climatic zone, with > northwestern parts. Similarly, the monsoon is the peak precipitating
60% of its regional climate classified as arid (Haider and Adnan, 2014; season (Figure 2D); about 65% of the annual precipitation is received
Ahmed et al., 2019). The country’s annual temperature distribution during the monsoon season. During the autumn season (Figure 2E),
shows that the maximum and minimum temperatures range from relatively less precipitation is received at most stations. Like
15°C to 35 °C and ≤ 0°C–14°C, respectively (Ullah et al., 2019b; precipitation, temperature exhibits high spatial variability with
2019c; Hussain et al., 2023b). The land-cover classes, derived from the maximum intensity in the southern parts and minimum intensity
Terra and Aqua combined Moderate Resolution Imaging in the northern mountainous parts (Ullah et al., 2019a; Hussain
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) Version et al., 2023b). The monsoon daily precipitation extremes often result
6 (Sulla-Menashe and Friedl, 2019), indicate that most of the croplands in severe flooding and drought (Rahman and Dawood, 2017; Fahad
dominate the Indus River Basin (Figure 1A). The regional (Figure 1B) and Wang, 2019). Thus, studying the variability in extremes is
variation in the land cover and climate classes varies from one region to necessary for understanding the sub-seasonal water cycle dynamics.
another. In the north, region 1 is a semiarid climate with grasslands,
region 2 is semiarid to arid with dominant croplands, region 3 is humid
with croplands, and region 4 is an extremely arid region with variable 3 Data and methods
precipitation and cropland. The complex topography derived from the
Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer 3.1 Data
Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER-GDEM) shows that the terrains
and rigid mountains in the north stretched towards the country’s In the current study, two types of datasets are used, i.e., observed
northwestern parts mostly define precipitation variability (Figure 1B). and reanalysis for 1981–2018 based on the in-situ precipitation data

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FIGURE 2
The multi-year mean of (A) monthly total precipitation and interannual mean of (B) winter, (C) spring, (D) summer, and (E) autumn seasons during
1981–2018 over Pakistan.

available from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The rain-gauge data are indeed subjected to deviations attributed to
observed precipitation data of fifty (50) meteorological stations for climatic and non-climatic factors, which are removed from the
the monsoon season (June, July, August, and September months) are primary data before application (Toreti et al., 2011; Tapiador et al.,
obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The 2012; Kidd et al., 2017; Tapiador et al., 2018). In addition, the
station density of the current study is shown in Figure 1B, atmospheric reanalysis datasets were acquired from the European
representing the dense network in the north and relatively sparse Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the
density in the south. The dominant precipitation patterns of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for
country have a relatively higher deviation in the north than in the Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) data archives.
south and are better represented by the prevailing station density The ECMWF 5th generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) of
(Hanif et al., 2013; Bhatti et al., 2020). Figure 1B further shows the zonal and meridional wind components, relative humidity, air
selected four regions for an area average trend analysis based on the temperature, sea surface temperature, and geopotential height were
individual differences in land cover, elevation, and climate class. The used (Hersbach et al., 2020). The horizontal resolution of ERA5 is

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TABLE 1 Extreme precipitation indices used in the study.

Name ID Definition Units

Wet days R1 mm Days count with precipitation ≥ 1 mm Days

Heavy precipitation days R10 mm Days count with precipitation ≥ 10 mm Days

Very heavy precipitation days R20 mm Days count with precipitation ≥ 20 mm Days

Mean precipitation amount on a wet day SDII Days count with precipitation ≥ 50 mm mm

Maximum 1-day precipitation Rx1 day Maximum 1-day precipitation amount mm

Very wet days R95p TOT Days with precipitation ≥ 95 percentile mm

Extremely wet days R99p TOT Days with precipitation ≥ 99 percentile mm

31 km and has 137 vertical levels to 0.01 hPa (Dee et al., 2011). The Kendall (mMK) (Hamed and Rao, 1998) and Sen’s slope estimator
advantages of the ERA5 include its improvements in precipitation and (SSE) were used (Sen, 1968). The mMK test was used to determine
cloud schemes, model parametrizations, snow schemes, and improved the significance of the trend with a 95% significance bound, and SSE
radiative balance of the model (Shen et al., 2021; 2022b). For the was employed to estimate the magnitude of the monotonic trend
current study, monthly mean data of the above variables were (Ullah et al., 2019c; Ali G. et al., 2020). Both the original Mann-
downloaded for the monsoon season with a grid size of 0.75°. The Kendall (MK) and its modified version (mMK) tests are often used
ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data were downloaded from the to detect the significance of the trend in a time series; the MK test is
following link: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home. sensitive to autocorrelation (Ullah et al., 2018b; Khan et al., 2021),
The current study also used the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean which may affect its outcomes regarding significance. On the other
outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data (Liebmann and Smith, hand, the mMK effectively nullifies the effect of autocorrelation
1996). The resolution of radiance observation of OLR is 1.0 × 1.0°, before determining statistical significance (Salman et al., 2017; Xie
derived from a high-resolution infrared radiation sounder (HIRS). et al., 2020; Hussain et al., 2022). Therefore, the present study
The data was interpolated at a 2.5-degree spatial resolution of the preferred the mMK test over the MK to overcome
initial National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) autocorrelation in the datasets. Moreover, the mMK test is
data. The interpolated data provide a smooth and error-free overview simple and robust against outliers, missing values, and normal
of the tropical convective activities due to consistent quality control distribution and is less sensitive to abrupt breaks in time series.
and conditional checks before interpolation. The OLR data used in Similarly, the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test (Sneyers,
this study were retrieved from https://psl.noaa.gov/. 1990) was further used to detect the abrupt changes (mutations) in
the temporal trends of the sub-seasonal extreme precipitation
indices. In addition, linear regression analyses were used to
3.2 Methods estimate the temporal trend across time and the elevation during
the study period. More details about mMK, SSE, SQMK, and linear
(a) Extreme precipitation indices regression tests can be found in recent studies (Ullah et al., 2018a;
Hussain et al., 2022). Finally, a non-parametric Probability Density
For extreme precipitation, a set of seven precipitation indices were Function (PDF) was employed to describe the distribution pattern of
derived from the Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices the extreme precipitation indices, allowing for the changes in the
(ETCCDI) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (Zhang input to shape the distribution pattern and moments based on the
et al., 2011). Table 1 shows a detailed overview of the selected indices mean, mode, median, kurtosis, and skewness. A Gaussian kernel
and their classification for the current study. Using these indices, we with zero mean and unit standard deviation represents a normal
have considered two aspects of the precipitation extremes, i.e., the distribution for a simple PDF. In contrast, a deviation on either the
frequency of the days and their relative intensity for the monsoon left or right side suggests a decrease or increase in the respective
months. It should be noted that the precipitation variability over field’s magnitude, frequency, and/or intensity (McColl et al., 2017;
Pakistan significantly varies from the east to the west, especially Ullah et al., 2021b).
during the monsoon season (Hanif et al., 2013). Therefore, these
indices are useful in characterizing monsoon precipitation variability (c) Extreme precipitation indices relationship with atmospheric
in arid, semiarid, and humid climates. The choice of multiple absolute circulations
and percentile-based relative threshold indices could provide a tangible
way of assessing trends in regional heavy and very heavy precipitation We further attempted to explore the extreme precipitation
extremes. indices’ relationship with the atmospheric circulation strength in
the region following previous studies (Rasmussen et al., 2015; Ullah
(b) Trend analysis et al., 2021b). To find such a relationship, we used the South Asian
High (SAH) oscillations and the long-term interannual scale
For inferring trends in the extreme precipitation indices, a suite difference in the intensity of the atmospheric processes. The SAH
of non-parametric statistical techniques, namely, modified Mann- oscillation and regional deviations were previously linked with Asian

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FIGURE 3
Modified Mann-Kendall (mMK) trend of the extreme precipitation frequency during 1981–2018 over Pakistan; (A) wet days (R1 mm), (B) heavy
precipitation days (R10 mm), (C) very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm), (D) Mean precipitation on wet days (SDII), (E) One-day maximum precipitation
(Rx1 day), and (F) very wet days (R95p TOT), (G) extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation. The encircled stations have passed the significant presence
of trend with a 95% confidence.

monsoon precipitation variability and changes (Ge et al., 2018; Unlike a composite analysis of the selected extreme events, the
Zhang et al., 2020). The SAH index was calculated from the relative difference may better state the probabilistic changes and
meridional shift of the 200 hPa geopotential height difference relative differences in the atmospheric states.
between the southwest (20—27.5°S, 50—80°W) and northwest
(27.5–35°N, 50—80°E), as shown in a recent study (Wei et al.,
2015). We calculated the relative mean difference by dividing the 4 Results
study period into two phases to estimate the long-term differences in
the atmospheric processes, including divergent circulations 4.1 The spatial trend in daily extreme
(200 hPa), outgoing longwave radiation, relative humidity precipitation indices
(850 hPa), and atmospheric temperature (850 hPa). The first
phase spans from 1981 to 1990, and the second spans from Figure 3 shows the spatial trend of extreme precipitation indices
2009 to 2018 for the monsoon season. The first phase is then derived from the sub-seasonal daily precipitation during 1981–2018.
averaged and subtracted from the second phase. The purpose of The stations with the significant trend at 95% confidence bounds are
this relative difference between the 2 decades relates to global encircled. The frequency of wet days (R1 mm) showed a general
warming and its impact on the circulation intensity of the region. increase in the country’s central, southern, and northern parts with a

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FIGURE 4
Theil Sen slope of the extreme precipitation frequency during 1981–2018 over Pakistan; (A) wet days (R1 mm), (B) heavy precipitation days
(R10 mm), (C) very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm), (D) Mean precipitation on wet days (SDII), (E) One-day maximum precipitation (Rx1 day), and (F)
very wet days (R99p TOT), (G) extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation.

z-score value of >1.5 (Figure 3A). The core monsoon and adjacent relatively high in the eastern parts, followed by the northwestern
mountainous regions experienced an erratic trend, with few stations region (z-score: 3.5). The intensity of wet days average precipitation
showing a decrease (z-score = −5) and an increase in the (SDII) showed an increase in the central monsoon region
mountainous parts. For the frequency of heavy precipitation days (z-score= >2), including the eastern and central regions of the
(R10 mm), a consistently increasing trend was explicit in the country (Figure 3D). In the rest of the country, the SDII trend is
monsoon domain of the region (Figure 3B). The magnitude of erratic, with a general increase in the monsoon regions and a
the increasing trend was relatively high in the central and eastern decrease in the arid western stations. The maximum 1-day
parts (>2.5), which are considered key monsoon areas. On the other precipitation (Rx1 day) trend is consistent with SDII in the core
hand, a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation days monsoon regions and erratic in the rest of the country (Figure 3E).
(R10 mm) was evident in the northern mountainous The country’s eastern and western foothills regions have shown an
(z-score <–2) (Figure 3B) and arid southwestern climate increasing trend (z-score = 2.50) and a decrease in the arid southern
(z-score = −1.49). region (z-score = −0.69).
As seen in Figure 3C, the frequency of very heavy precipitation The intensity of the very wet days (R95p TOT) has decreased in
days (R20 mm) increased in the eastern parts of the region (z-score > the central arid plains, increasing in the Indus Basin eastern parts
4) and was erratic in the rest of the country with a moderate decrease and southern coastal regions with a z-score of 1.5 (Figure 3F). The
of < –1.80 notable in northern and southern regions. The increase is decrease in the intensity of very wet days is smaller, mostly in the

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TABLE 2 The mMK and TS trend of selected regions average precipitation during 1981–2018.

Index Statistics R1 mm R10 mm R20 mm SDII Rx1 mm R95p TOT R990 TOT
R1 mMK 3.6 0.6 0.03 −1.45 0.22 −0.65 −0.005

TS 0.21 0 0 −0.035 0.01 −0.062 0

R2 mMK 3.71 2.92 3.38 1.03 −0.058 2.46 1.56

TS 0.3 0.12 0.078 0.04 −0.031 2.32 0.38

R3 mMK 3.43 2.27 1.68 0.05 1.39 0.55 1.01

TS 0.18 0.07 0.03 0.0012 0.38 0.68 0.92

R4 mMK 1.71 −0.062 0.25 −1.95 −0.059 −0.67 0.2

TS 0.07 0 0 −0.16 −0.31 0 0

Country mMK 1.28 0.98 0.55 0.12 −0.063 0.07 0.77

TS 0.04 0.01 0.034 0.08 0 0.012 0.21

The bold values are those who passed the significance test with a p values of equal to or less than 0.05.

country’s central arid regions, with a z-score of −1.49. However, the and SSE magnitude are shown in bold. The relative increase in the
increase is dominant in the central and western foothills of the wet days (R1 mm) showed an overall increase in all regions, with the
country, with a z-score of >1.5. The intensity of extremely wet days highest values of mMK (3.71) and SSE (0.3) in region 2. For heavy
(R99p TOT) precipitation (Figure 3G) is generally erratic but shows precipitation days (R10 mm), the increase was moderate in all
an increase in the monsoon regions. The eastern, central, and regions, with a consistent increase in region 2 (mMK: 2.92, SSE:
western foothills increase is 0.71, stretching towards the 0.12) and a decrease in region 4 (mMK: –0.062, SSE: 0). For very
southwestern and coastal regions. heavy precipitation days (R20 mm), a similar increase in region 2
Figure 4 shows the SSE of the extreme precipitation frequency (mMK: 3.38, SSE: 0.078) was obvious, with a moderate increase in
and intensity from 1981 to 2018. As seen in Figure 4A, the frequency the rest of the regions. For SDII, a decrease in regions 1 and 4 (mMK:
of wet days (R1 mm) increased in the eastern, northern, and –1.45, −1.95, SSE: –0.035; −0.16) was obvious, and an increase in
northwestern parts (0.20 days), whereas a moderate decrease in region 3. The 1-day maximum precipitation (Rx1 day) decreased in
the south and southwest is obvious (<–0.19 days). For heavy region 2 and 4, with a moderate increase in region 3 (mMK: 1.39,
precipitation days (R10 mm) (Figure 4B), the increase is SSE: 2.32). For very wet days (R95p TOT), a decrease in regions
concentrated in the central monsoon region (>0.11 days). These 1 and 4 was obvious, along with an increase in region 2 (mMK: 2.46,
parts are the main monsoon domain where the average increase SSE: 2.32). The extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation has a
amounts to >0.25 days. The frequency of very heavy precipitation moderate increase in all regions with a decrease in region 1.
days (R20 mm) has a moderate increase in northwestern parts
(>0.13 days) and a moderate decrease (−0.02 days) in northern
and southern parts of the country (Figure 4C). The mean 4.2 Temporal evolution of the monsoon
precipitation on a wet day (SDII) (Figure 4D) exhibited an extreme precipitation indices
increase in the eastern, western parts of the region (>0.2 mm),
alongside a decrease in the north and southeastern coastal Figure 5 shows the abrupt changes (mutations) in extreme
regions (−0.14 mm). The maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1 day) precipitation indices’ temporal trends over Pakistan from 1981 to
(Figure 4E) precipitation is erratic in the north and southwest 2018. The UB statistics (blue dashed line) show the backward trend
(−0.27—0.17 mm) and increased in the eastern, northwestern, from 2018 towards 1981, while the UF statistics (orange line) show
and central parts of the region (0.52 mm). The very wet days the forward trend (1981–2018); the green line shows the 95%
(R95p TOT) precipitation (Figure 4F) showed an obvious significance limit for the trend in a time series. The points where
increase in the eastern and central parts of the region (0.11 mm), UB and UF lines cross each other represent the abrupt shift in trend
whereas the rest of the country, including the northern, western, and from decreasing to increasing state and vice versa. For the frequency
southern parts, showed a consistent decrease (−0.14 mm). The of wet days (R1 mm) (Figure 5A), a constantly increasing trend is
intensity of extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation evident from 1981 with multiple mutations from 1990 to 2000. The
(Figure 4G) has a small decrease and thus can be referred to as catastrophic flooding and drought events in Pakistan are depicted in
unchanged during the study period. More detailed analysis with long mutation points during the study period (Xie et al., 2016; Abbas
time series of the precipitation data can better predict this trend. et al., 2021). These events limited access to food and water, damaged
The mMK and SSE of regional precipitation averaged for the the basic infrastructure, and affected the socioeconomic and
selected stations in each region (Figure 1B) are further shown in sustainable development of the country (Rahman and Khan,
Table 2. The regional average precipitation trend can better capture 2011; Ullah et al., 2021b).
the regional precipitation behavior concerning the erratic nature of For the frequency of heavy precipitation (R10 mm) (Figure 5B),
the spatial trend. The regional relative highest trend values for mMK a consistent periodicity with multiple turning points inferred a

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FIGURE 5
The abrupt changes in sub-seasonal daily precipitation extreme during 1981–2018 over Pakistan; (A) wet days (R1 mm), (B) heavy precipitation days
(R10 mm), (C) very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm), (D) Mean precipitation on wet days (SDII), (E) One-day maximum precipitation (Rx1 day), and (F)
very wet days (R99p TOT), (G) extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation.

continuous change in the trend. The drought periods of statistics and dynamical patterns evident from the respective
1988–1990 and 1997–2002 and the flooding events of 1990 and frequency plot with a significant increase during 1985–1995,
2010 showed a phase shift in the trend. For the frequency of very followed by a sharp decline during early 2000. The 1-day
heavy precipitation days (R20 mm) (Figure 5C), three turning points maximum (Rx1 day) precipitation (Figure 5E) showed the dry
were explicitly evident in early 1990, 2000, and 2015, inferring a shift and wet episodes of the region with dynamic mutations in the
in the frequency trend. The drought period of the late-1990 was very early 1990s and a moderate increase in post-2010 with a decrease
obvious, followed by a smooth increase afterward. The intensity of afterward. The intensity of the very wet days (R95p TOT)
wet days mean precipitation (SDII) (Figure 5D) has different precipitation (Figure 5F) has shown four turning points in the

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FIGURE 6
Linear trend in sub-seasonal daily precipitation extreme against elevation during 1981–2018 over Pakistan; (A) wet days (R1 mm), (B) heavy
precipitation days (R10 mm), (C) very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm), (D) Mean precipitation on wet days (SDII), (E) One-day maximum precipitation
(Rx1 day), and (F) very wet days (R95p TOT), (G) extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation.

trend linked with changes in the precipitation intensity. The influenced by the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic forcing as
mutation points reflect the major precipitation extremes, such as previously explored. The forcing appears to influence the
the floods in the early-1990s, the drought in 1997–2002, and the interannual monsoon precipitation extremes over Pakistan during
2010 floods. The extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation their transition from one phase to another, such as during the
(Figure 5G) showed a moderate to very lower variation over the 2010 flooding and drought phases (Webster et al., 2011; Xie et al.,
study period and rather dynamic mutations with no obvious trend 2016).
visible. In conclusion, Figure 5 shows that the precipitation Figure 6 shows the relationship between extreme precipitation
variability over Pakistan is moderately associated with and frequency and intensity with the altitude of rain gauges. The mMK

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FIGURE 7
Probability density function (PDF) of daily monsoon precipitation intensity indices for June, July, August, and September months during
1981–2018 over Pakistan; (A) wet days (R1 mm), (B) heavy precipitation days (R10 mm), (C) very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm), (D) Mean precipitation
on wet days (SDII), (E) One-day maximum precipitation (Rx1 day), and (F) very wet days (R95p TOT), (G) extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation.

values for the frequency and intensity of the selected absolute and intensity with the highest decreasing trend compared to the
percentile-based precipitation indices are regressed against the intensity-based indices (Figure 6G).
elevation of the stations. The mMK values for the frequency In conclusion, Figure 6 shows that the frequency and intensity of
(Figure 6A) of wet days (R1 mm) showed a decreasing trend precipitation extremes concerning altitude exhibited a decreasing
with elevation with regression coefficients of −0.00039. The trend during the monsoon season. The relationship showed that
mMK values of heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) showed a some stations have positive and negative residues in the lower and
similar decreasing trend with regression coefficients of −0.0011 higher altitude regions, inferring that precipitation increases with
(Figure 6B), with a similar decrease for very heavy precipitation altitude in the moderate altitudes. Still, the overall relationship is
days (R20 mm), with a regression coefficient of −0.00085 negative due to the higher altitude and density of the stations in the
(Figure 6C), respectively. The mean precipitation on wet days northern parts of the study region. The possible reason for such a
(SDII) showed an overall decreasing trend with altitude weaker and negative relationship could be that the extreme
(−0.00054); however, the trend was erratic in the lower and monsoon precipitation is centered in the country’s central
moderate altitudes (Figure 6D). The 1-day maximum regions, mostly in the middle and lower altitude classes.
precipitation (Rx1 day) also showed a decrease across altitude Furthermore, the extreme precipitation indices have a diverse
(−0.00045), but the station density in lower and moderate regional variability, with each regional index trend varying from
elevations showed an increase in the precipitation (Figure 6E). the rest. The results also agree with the previous studies showing a
The very wet days (R95p TOT) intensity (Figure 6F) has decrease in monsoon mean precipitation and an increase in wet days
decreased across altitude with regression coefficients of −0.00028, across moderate and lower altitudes (Ullah et al., 2018a; Bhatti et al.,
followed by a similar decrease for extremely wet days (R99p TOT) 2020).

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TABLE 3 Descriptive statistics showing moments of distributions for extreme precipitation indices during 1981–2018 over Pakistan.

Index Statistics June July August September

Wet days (R1 mm) Skewness 0.73 −0.31 1.04 1.11

Kurtosis 2.94 3.25 2.99 4.57

Std 0.94 1.44 4.54 1.01

Mean 3.24 5.59 5.42 3.01

Heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) Skewness 1.21 0.31 0.21 1.45

Kurtosis 4.66 2.54 2.00 5.24

Std 0.51 0.77 0.64 0.53

Mean 1.02 2.43 2.28 1.07

Very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm) Skewness 1.36 0.62 0.37 1.44

Kurtosis 4.80 2.84 2.34 4.67

Std 0.33 0.50 0.41 0.36

Mean 0.46 1.38 1.27 0.57

Maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1 day) Skewness 1.02 1.86 0.39 1.92

Kurtosis 4.33 8.37 2.12 6.32

Std 6.42 11.08 8.99 11.85

Mean 18.32 35.41 35.95 24.49

Mean precipitation on wet days’ (SDII) Skewness 1.26 0.35 0.42 0.99

Kurtosis 4.85 3.51 2.25 3.54

Std 2.58 3.04 2.97 3.55

Mean 6.67 10.77 11.16 7.99

Very Wet days total precipitation (R95pTOT) Skewness 0.85 1.82 0.30 0.84

Kurtosis 6.73 8.96 3.06 2.58

Std 14.94 7.11 6.75 11.37

Mean 46.82 57.67 59.65 57.16

Extremely wet days’ total precipitation (R99pTOT) Skewness 0.28 1.19 −0.13 1.21

Kurtosis 2.58 4.99 2.29 4.55

Std 28.82 21.94 14.21 27.47

Mean 81.21 99.52 99.36 93.28

Figure 7 shows the probability density function (PDF) of the The heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) (Figure 7B) exhibited a
extreme precipitation frequency, intensity, and its moments of similar pattern to wet days (R1 mm), highlighting the high
distribution (Table 3). The wet days (R1 mm) (Figure 7A) PDF frequency (intensity) of heavy precipitation events (R10 mm). In
shows an overall positive asymmetric distribution in monsoon terms of distribution statistics (Table 3), the months of June and
months, indicating an inconsistent increase. This indicates that September (July and August) showed the highest skewness and
the onset and recession of the monsoon season are getting kurtosis (deviation and mean) values, affirming higher frequency
vibrant, while the mid-monsoon season is getting intense with (intensity) of heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) during these
more precipitation days. As seen in Table 3, the wet days’ months. The skewness and kurtosis values for heavy precipitation
precipitation (R1 mm) has shown a higher deviation towards days (R10 mm) were high in September (1.45 and 5.24), followed by
maxima during August (4.54), followed by July (1.44), September June (1.21 and 4.66), while the higher degree of deviation and mean
(1.01), and June (0.94). Similarly, July and August have the highest was evident during July (0.77 and 2.43), followed by August
mean wet days’ precipitation at 5.59 and 5.42, respectively. (0.68 and 2.28), respectively.

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For very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm) (Figure 7C), the In conclusion, from Figure 7, an obvious overall increase is
PDF followed the pattern of heavy precipitation days (R10 mm); observed in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation
however, slight changes are observed in the density and distribution indices. The absolute indices have observed a relatively high
of the selected months. June and September have the highest frequency during June and September, while a strong intensity
frequency with slight rightward movement during September, during July and September. In contrast, the percentile-based
indicating frequent heavy precipitation events. The higher indices have shown an opposite pattern with high frequency in
skewness and kurtosis during June and September infer a shift June and September and intensity in June and September. The high
towards more extreme values and a high frequency of very heavy frequency of extreme precipitation indices during June and
precipitation events (R20 mm) during these months (Table 3). On September indicates that the onset and recession of the monsoon
the other hand, the larger distribution towards the right side in July season have been vibrant in Pakistan during the study period.
and August is explicitly conclusive of a relatively higher degree of Moreover, the increasing intensity of extreme precipitation
change in the intensity of very heavy precipitation events (R20 mm) indices during July and August suggests that the study region has
during these months. received more precipitation during these 2 months and could be
The maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1 day) is similar to considered the peak monsoon months in Pakistan. Generally, the
other absolute indices (Figure 7D), with high density and positive extreme precipitation increase in intensity is reported in the
distribution during the selected months. However, June and previous study over Pakistan (Bhatti et al., 2020).
September have the highest density, while July, August, and
September have more positive shifts. The PDF pattern
indicates that the study region was predominated by regular 4.3 Possible atmospheric drivers
daily maximum precipitation extremes (Rx1day) during June and
September. The PDF pattern was confirmed by the related This section has attempted to show a potential mechanism of
statistics (Table 3), showing the highest skewness, kurtosis, the changes in the extreme precipitation indices and their
and standard deviation during July (1.86, 8.37, and 11.08) and association with the large-scale atmospheric phenomenon. For
September (1.92, 6.32, and 11.85). The higher degree of skewness, this purpose, we have used a two-step approach, including a long-
kurtosis, and deviation suggests asymmetrical and variable daily term correlation of the extreme precipitation indices with South
maximum precipitation (Rx1 day) during these months. Asian High (SAH) meridional oscillation in the first step and a
In mean precipitation on wet days’ (SDII) PDF (Figure 7E), the relative difference of the circulation intensity during the study
highest density was observed in June with a slight asymmetrical shift period in the second step.
in the high precipitation distribution, suggesting a high frequency Figure 8 shows the correlation between the South Asian High
during the study period. However, positive shifts with the (SAH) index and the extreme precipitation frequency and intensity
symmetrical pattern were found in the rest of the months, during the study period. For wet days (R1 mm) precipitation, a
indicating high uniformity in the magnitude of wet days’ mean positive correlation (>0.45) was visible in core monsoon regions and
precipitation (SDII). Table 3 shows high skewness and kurtosis negative in the central parts of the country (Figure 8A). A consistent
values were observed in June (1.26 and 4.85), indicating recurrent positive correlation in the northern and southern and a negative
wet-day precipitation (SDII). correlation in the central parts of the country was obvious for heavy
For very wet days’ precipitation (R95p TOT) (Figure 7F), an and very heavy precipitation days (Figures 8 B, C). The relative
opposite pattern is found in the density and distribution of the strength of the correlation was stronger for very heavy precipitation
selected months relative to the absolute indices. Interestingly, July days (>0.60) among the frequency-based indices (Figure 8C). The
and August (June and September) show a relatively significant mean wet days’ precipitation (SDII) showed a consistent positive
increase in density (distribution), which contradicts the PDF correlation in the north and southern parts alongside a negative
patterns of absolute precipitation indices. These results suggested correlation in the central parts of the region (Figure 8D). For
the frequent and intense occurrences of very wet events (R95p TOT) maximum 1-day precipitation (Figure 8E), the strength of the
in Pakistan during July and June were relatively predominated by correlation was positive in the north, and a rather weaker to
very wet day extremes (R95p TOT). In terms of PDF statistics moderate negative relationship was obvious in the rest of the
(Table 3), the highest skewness and kurtosis values were found in country. The relatively strong relationship among the intensity of
July (1.82 and 8.96), which confirmed the occurrence of frequent very wet days (R95p TOT) (Figure 8F) across the core monsoon
and intense very wet extremes (R95p TOT). regions of the country, whereas the extremely wet days (R99p TOT)
The extremely wet days’ precipitation (R99p TOT) PDF precipitation (Figure 8G), was rather uniform across the eastern
followed the very wet days’ PDF pattern with slight variations parts of the country from the north to southward. In conclusion, the
in the density and distribution of the selected months SAH meridional oscillation across the northward and southward of
(Figure 7G). The higher intensity of extremely wet days (R99p the study region exhibited an erratic relationship with the frequency
TOT) in the July and August months could be attributed to more and intensity of the extreme. The correlation strength varies
precipitation, as these months are mid of monsoon season in regionally among the indices, indicating that the large-scale shift
Pakistan. In terms of PDF statistics (Table 3), the skewness and toward northwestward may suppress the monsoon precipitation
kurtosis values were high during July (1.19 and 4.99) and over Pakistan and vice versa (Wei et al., 2015).
September (1.21 and 4.55), whereas the degree of deviation Figure 9 shows the relative difference of (a) 200, (b) 500, and (c)
was high during June, followed by September and July at the 850 hPa wind components (vectors) and stream function (shaded)
rate of 28.82, 27.47, and 21.94, respectively. for the first (1981–1990) and last decade (2009–2018). From

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FIGURE 8
Correlation of SAH index and extreme precipitation indices of (A) wet days (R1 mm), (B) heavy precipitation days (R10 mm), (C) very heavy
precipitation days (R20 mm), (D) mean precipitation of wet days (SDII), (E) maximum 1-day precipitation, (F) very wet day precipitation (R95p TOT), and (G)
extremely wet days precipitation (R99p TOT) during the study period.

Figure 9A, the wind components and stream function showed the that after entering the Bay of Bengal region forms a southeasterly
relative strength of the circulations and the center of the cyclonic/ flow, favoring enhanced moisture transport from the Arabian Sea
anticyclonic motion. Two high-pressure systems are evident; the and the Bay of Bengal (Figure 9C). The two pressure systems
first is located over the Tibetan Plateau in the north of Pakistan, provided a frontal system where warm air masses from the Bay
while the second is over northwestern Pakistan, centered over of Bengal and warm pool region through southwesterlies and cold
Eurasia. A low-pressure cut-off can be seen between the two Eurasian air masses merge and probably drive the extreme
pressure systems, separating them. The mid-tropospheric precipitation during the monsoon season. The mechanism shown
circulations (500 hPa) have preserved the probabilistic Rossby here suggests an increase in the intensity of the circulation pattern
Wave pattern with the leading ridge and Tibetan High favoring and its associated impact on the regional precipitation extreme
intensified ascent over Pakistan (Figure 9B). A strong southwesterly indices. Further detailed studies are thus needed for a more
flow (850 hPa) over the Arabian Sea (20°N, 50°E-70°E) is discernable definitive mechanism assessment.

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FIGURE 9
Wind components (vectors), and stream function (shaded) difference at (A) 200 hPa, (B) 500 hPa, and (C) 850 hPa.

The divergent wind and velocity potential (Figure 10A) increased vertical motion, condensation aloft, and enhanced
further indicated that a relatively intensified vertical ascent in precipitation extremes. The decrease (negative anomalies) in OLR
the study region has been evident in the recent decade. The indicates an increase in cloud cover due to an increase in the
divergent circulations’ center has exhibited a strong divergent convection leading to extreme precipitation accompanied by
motion with vectors indicating a strong heat source over the SA other synoptic weather patterns during the monsoon (Lim et al.,
landmasses and the Bay of Bengal. The difference between the 2011). For relative humidity at 850 hPa (Figure 10C), an increase in
two periods indicates that more precipitation is received in the the magnitude was obvious over Pakistan’s eastern and southeastern
region than in the first phase, leading to extra latent heat release monsoon regions. The increase accounted for >8% of the mean
and stronger vertical ascent. The heat source of the SA monsoon magnitude from the mean of the first phase, inferring an increase in
is located over the Tibetan Plateau and has been extensively the region’s lower troposphere’s moisture profile. The northern
studied for its thermal controls over the Asian monsoon and parts have featured a decrease in the relative humidity’s
exhibited a strong correlation with the precipitation variability magnitude. Such a decrease can be disregarded because of
over Pakistan (Ullah et al., 2021a; 2022b; 2023). The velocity terrain-induced biases. Hence, no valid data exist at 850 hPa in
potential further indicates a consistently intensified ascent of the those regions. The air temperature at 850 hPa over Pakistan
wind, descending into the Indian Ocean, coastal regions of (Figure 10D) indicated a decrease in air temperature’s absolute
Somalia, and East Africa. magnitude from the first phase. Concerning previous figures, the
The outgoing longwave radiation has been used as a proxy to increase in relative humidity and strengthening of the monsoon
indicate strong convective activities over the study region (Ullah trough over the study region indicated lower temperatures due to
et al., 2021b). The difference in the outgoing longwave radiation more water vapors in the air, causing cooling through
(Figure 10B) showed an intensification of the convective activities evapotranspiration. The air temperature over the adjacent Indian
over Pakistan and the adjacent Indian Ocean. In addition, a decrease Ocean was relatively higher, showing a contrast pattern. Such a
is evident in northwestern India, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian pattern indicates that over the ocean increase in temperature will
Sea region. The study regions’ intensified convection indicates also accelerate the convection. The evaporated water vapors are

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FIGURE 10
The difference in the (A) divergent circulations at 200 hPa, (B) outgoing longwave radiation, (C) relative humidity at 850 hPa, and (D) Temperature at
850 hPa. The difference is calculated by subtracting the first-decade mean (1981–1990) from the last-decade mean (2009–2018) for the respective
fields.

generally transported to the continental regions, resulting in linked with intensified downstream precipitation patterns due to
precipitation and cooling the air temperature. intensified wind ascent (Wei et al., 2015; Ullah et al., 2021b).
In conclusion, convection and monsoon trough over the study
region has intensified, indicating relatively higher precipitation in
the country than in the first phase. The global warming-induced 5 Discussion
changes have shuffled the global water cycle as indicated by the
IPCC that the wet regions or seasons will become wetter and warmer Pakistan is facing a rapid increase in extreme weather events,
at the end of the century (IPCC, 2022). Similar findings are reported which resulted in significant socioeconomic and human losses
in the previous study on a global scale, indicating that the future (Atta-ur-Rahman and Khan, 2011; Nanditha et al., 2023). A
precipitation in the Asian monsoon domain will be more violent recent massive flood in August 2022 in Pakistan triggered by
(Trenberth, 2011; Greve et al., 2014; Singh et al., 2014) due to the increased intensity and duration of monsoon precipitation
intensification of the monsoon trough and enhanced monsoon extremes (Nanditha et al., 2023) and the disastrous floods and
activities over the region. The high-pressure systems’ (South severe damages caused by extreme monsoon precipitation over
Asian High) movement into the mid-latitude regions is further South Asia and East Asia during 2020 are prime examples

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(Kripalani et al., 2022). The recent floods in Pakistan have affected (IPCC, 2022; Abbas et al., 2023a). The findings of these studies
33 million people, damaged 1.5 million homes, and caused suggest that South Asia is a climate change-sensitive region, and the
$2.3 billion in crop damage (Shehzad, 2023). Therefore, the increasing trend of observed precipitation extremes could exacerbate
dynamic patterns of regional monsoon extremes and their the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters in the
variabilities need more attention from the scientific community. region.
In response to such facts, this study aims to assess monsoon extreme On the other hand, the results showed that the frequency and
precipitation spatial and temporal patterns over Pakistan from severity of heavy and very heavy precipitation extremes moderately
observations and reanalysis products during 1981–2018 and the decreased in the country’s northern mountainous region. These
associated large-scale circulation mechanism. outcomes are in line with the findings of recent studies (Hussain
The findings revealed an increasing trend in wet days et al., 2023a; Rebi et al., 2023), which reported a decreasing trend in
precipitation with a maximum tendency in the northwestern, precipitation in the northern mountains and the monsoon core
central, and eastern monsoon-dominant parts. Two types of region of Pakistan at −4.48 and −1.66 mm/decade during
extreme precipitation trend patterns were obvious, including the 1960–2016, respectively. The decrease in monsoon precipitation
moderate and the heavy and very heavy precipitation indices extremes in the northern mountainous region of Pakistan can be
frequency and intensity. The moderate and wet days attributed to multiple factors. For instance, the inability of the rain
precipitation increase is centered in the western and northern gauges to capture extreme precipitation events and/or lack or poor
parts expressing an expanding monsoon domain towards the management of precipitation data greatly affect the variability of
west as previously explored from the mean spatiotemporal precipitation extremes in high mountains (Ren et al., 2017; Ullah
patterns (Jayasankar et al., 2018; Ali et al., 2021). The frequency et al., 2018a). Recent studies reported the existence of uncertainty in
and intensity of precipitation extremes for heavy and very heavy hydrometeorological data in mountainous regions, which could lead
events increased in the monsoon core region and mixed patterns in to misinterpretation of climate extremes, including precipitation
the northwestern and southwestern parts of the country. Such an extremes (Pellicciotti et al., 2012; Álvarez-Rodríguez et al., 2017;
increase, especially in the country’s western and northern parts, Zhan et al., 2017; Ullah W. et al., 2019).
infers a westward movement of the monsoon circulations and local The temporal variability from the SeqMK of the extreme
precipitation recycling, which has been confirmed by previous precipitation indices shows a dominant influence of the large-
studies as well (Hanif et al., 2013; Ali S. et al., 2020; Ullah et al., scale forcing such as the atmospheric forcing (Ullah et al.,
2021b). The results also indicate a latitudinal shift in monsoon 2021b), surface forcing (Hussain et al., 2023a), Oceanic (Hussain
precipitation and its extremes, which could have significant et al., 2023b), and from the surrounding topography (Wang et al.,
implications for the northwestern parts of Pakistan. Additionally, 2017; Ullah et al., 2021a). The temporal evolution and mutations of
Safdar et al. (2019) reported a southeastward shift in the the extreme precipitation indices frequency and intensity vividly
geographical distribution of monsoon precipitation and its show peak dry and wet years, reflecting how the regional scale
extremes during 2010–2017. The heavy and very heavy drivers listed above control the changes in precipitation. The
precipitation extremes intensity and frequency show an erratic to probability density function and the moment of distribution
moderate increase in the eastern and central monsoon region of the further show the influence of the mutations in changing the
country that leads to deluges and heavy flooding, as evident from the mean precipitation, the distribution peaks, and the right-tailed
recent flooding (Atta-ur-Rahman and Shaw, 2015; Qazlbash et al., shoulders’ expansion towards more extremes during July and
2021; Abbas et al., 2023a; Rebi et al., 2023). August. The projected changes in drivers such extremes as the
According to Abbas et al. (2023a) reported an increase in ENSO, the Indian Ocean, and the Himalayan Tibetan Plateau
R1 mm, R10 mm, and R20 mm is evident during the summer could further intensify the severity and frequency of these
monsoon in the eastern, western, and southeastern parts of mutations. Indeed other forcing, such as the solar cycle, external
Pakistan. Such a trend could alter the country’s water resources, forcing, and volcanic forcing, are also responsible for such mutations
crop productivity, and food security in the near future (Ali et al., (Dai and Wang, 2017; Wang et al., 2017). Recent studies indicated
2019; Alvar-Beltrán et al., 2021). The results of increasing that the regional topography in the northwestern mountainous belt
precipitation extremes agree with the findings of the previous of SA, comprised of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH)
studies in Pakistan (Bhatti et al., 2020; Hussain et al., 2023a), ranges, is also a key factor in modulating the South Asian monsoon
which reported an overall rise in the mean and extreme precipitation, influencing the frequency and magnitude of
precipitation in the country. These results are also in line with precipitation in South Asian countries (Boos and Kuang, 2013;
studies conducted in neighboring countries, like India (Singh et al., Sun et al., 2017; You et al., 2017). The overall spatiotemporal
2019; Kripalani et al., 2022), Nepal (Sharma et al., 2023), China (Wu variability of the precipitation extremes is in line with the
et al., 2019), and Southeast Asia (Cui et al., 2019; Syed et al., 2022), findings of the previous studies (Ullah et al., 2018a; Hussain
which revealed an increasing trend of monsoon extremes in the et al., 2021), suggesting that such mutations could be due to the
stated regions. The increasing tendency of monsoon precipitation warming and intensification of the SA monsoon circulations (Liu
extremes in Pakistan and neighboring countries could be attributed et al., 2007; Ullah et al., 2020; 2021b). Some modeling studies
to dynamic changes in the global monsoon system, as suggested by projected that anthropogenic global warming would greatly
studies (Wang et al., 2012; 2017). A similar rate increase in influence global monsoon regimes’ spatial and temporal
precipitation extremes has been projected in SA monsoon- dynamics in the coming decades. In a recent study, Ali et al.
dominated regions, including Pakistan, by recent modeling (2021) projected an increase in the monsoon area in the Upper
studies and is also available in the latest IPCC assessment report Indus Basin (UIB) and a northward shift of the monsoon region,

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indicating frequent and intense precipitation in the northern part of the relationship of monsoon precipitation extremes with large-scale
the UIB under higher warming scenario. Such forcing as causal atmospheric circulations, future studies should explore the changes
factors of the monsoon extremes need further studies to deeply in the atmospheric water contents and related factors for their
understand the mechanism. The outcome of these forcing could be quantified impacts on the precipitation extremes in Pakistan and
seen in the recent flooding and droughts in southern parts of neighboring countries. How the regional and large-scale drivers
Pakistan in 2022 that claimed capital and human lives in return affect the extremes in a time and space domain needs more
(Nasir et al., 2020; Qazlbash et al., 2021). investigation.
Furthermore, the study revealed enhancement of the mid-
latitude westerlies and subtropical zonal easterlies
teleconnections, strengthening of the monsoon trough, and land- 6 Conclusion
ocean thermal difference are the possible causes of the increasing
trend in precipitation extremes over Pakistan (Figure 8; Figure 9). The present study assessed the spatiotemporal variability of daily
The correlation strength of the SAH and the extremes indices varies monsoon (June, July, August, and September) precipitation
regionally among the indices, indicating that the large-scale shift extremes in Pakistan from observed and reanalysis datasets. A
toward northwestward may suppress the monsoon precipitation total of seven extreme precipitation indices were used, i.e., wet
over Pakistan and vice versa (Wei et al., 2015). Similar atmospheric days (R1 mm), heavy precipitation days (R10 mm), very heavy
and oceanic patterns were reported by previous studies (Latif and precipitation days (R20 mm), mean precipitation on a wet day
Syed, 2016; Ahmed et al., 2020; Ullah et al., 2021b; Abbas et al., (SDII), maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1 day), very wet days
2023b), indicating that the westerlies and easterlies are strengthened (R95p TOT), and extremely wet days (R99p TOT). A suite of
(suppressed) during the above (below) normal precipitation numerical and statistical computational techniques was used to
composites, while the enhanced (reduced) convective activity in infer trends in the frequency and intensity of the extreme
the Indian Ocean acts as a key source of influenced precipitation in precipitation indices. The key conclusions of the study are listed
the region. It is essential to comprehend how oceanic and below.
atmospheric circulation systems interact with monsoon
precipitation and how they influence extreme events to build • The frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes
effective countermeasures to institutional attempts to advance increased in the monsoon core region (i.e., eastern and
policy solutions (Ndehedehe et al., 2019; Hussain et al., 2023a) northeastern parts), and a westward shift in moderate
Moreover, Hussain et al. (2023a) revealed significant coherences of precipitation. The northern mountainous and southern
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) regions experienced a decrease and erratic pattern in heavy
with monsoon precipitation in the monsoon region and central and and very heavy precipitation extremes.
southeastern Pakistan at various scales, which could also be the • The mutation points in the temporal trend of precipitation
primary reason for the observed enhanced mid-latitude westerlies. extremes consistently reflected increasing (decreasing)
Whereas, no influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) was shifts during the early 1990s and late 2010s (1997–2002).
observed in the northern parts of Pakistan, which are located away Likewise, the temporal distribution exhibited an overall
from the monsoon core region. Some recent studies have partially increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme
attributed monsoonal variability and inconsistency to large-scale precipitation indices with fewer peaks and troughs,
circulations in Pakistan, such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and indicating the country’s flooding and droughts episodes
ENSO (Safdar et al., 2019). In the UIB, Ali et al. (2021) noted during the study period.
increased and expanded precipitation in monsoon months • Regarding elevation, the frequency and intensity of extreme
(i.e., June, July, and August), which they linked to changes in precipitation exhibited a negative relationship with altitudes,
wind circulation patterns in the Pakistan monsoon-dominated indicating that the monsoon precipitation is decreasing at
region. higher altitudes in Pakistan.
The study further investigated the convective activity over the • The PDF showed a significant increase in the frequency and
continental and oceanic masses and its role in monsoon intensity of precipitation during June and September, whereas
precipitation extremes. The analysis revealed negative anomalies a probabilistic positive shift during July and August is obvious.
in OLR, indicating enhanced convection over Pakistan and the • The possible impacts of the circulation include the mid-
South Asian area in the recent decade (Figure 10). Recently, latitude teleconnections with a tropical monsoon climate,
Ullah et al. (2021b) employed OLR anomalies as a proxy to enhancing frontal weather formation. The lower
pinpoint the convective activity over the continental and oceanic tropospheric moisture contents, weakening of the monsoon
masses during the above- and below-normal composites and trough, thermal gradient with the ocean, and convective
observed similar patterns. Similarly, Latif and Syed (2016) activities suggested an increase in moisture transport to the
analyzed the OLR composite anomaly and saw deep convection monsoon domain in the last decade, favoring an increasing
moving from the Arabian Sea in a northward direction and from the trend in extremes.
Bay of Bengal in a northeasterly direction. The OLR anomalies
intensify as the monsoon onset approaches Pakistan and flows Further studies can explore the changes in the atmospheric
quickly northward, combining with the other unfavorable water contents for their quantified impacts on the precipitation
anomaly spreading from the Bay of Bengal, bringing deluges to extremes. The approaches used in the current study are based on
the northern parts of the region. Although this study tried to explore statistical diagnostics and trend approaches, which may be

Frontiers in Environmental Science 18 frontiersin.org

Ullah et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1228817

subjected to biases and deviations in results due to the choice of Acknowledgments

the datasets and scaling, which, however, could not impact the
large-scale results. We also acknowledge the Pakistan Meteorological Department
for data provision, Rabdan Academy for the article processing
charges (APC) payment, and ECMWF, and NCEP/NCAR for
Data availability statement their reanalysis data.

The original contributions presented in the study are included in

the article/Supplementary Material, further inquiries can be directed Conflict of interest
to the corresponding author.
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the
absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be
Author contributions construed as a potential conflict of interest.

All authors listed have made a substantial, direct, and intellectual

contribution to the work and approved it for publication. Publisher’s note
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and
Funding do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or
those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that
This study is financially supported by the National Natural may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its
Science Foundation of China (42275028). manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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