Received: 23 October 2024 Accepted: 25 October 2024

DOI: 10.1002/sres.3102

DISCUSSANT'S COMMENT

Engaging with diverse worldviews using system dynamics

David C. Lane
Henley Business School, University of Reading, Reading, UK

Correspondence
David C. Lane, DME, Henley Business School, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6UD, UK.
Email: [email protected]

1 | INTRODUCTION First, the CoR studies do not suggest that we are

doomed (Anon., 1972b; Cole et al., 1973; Maddox, 1971).
This Comment responds to the work by Blumberga They do not forecast a single, nightmarish future and
(2024) by considering further the potential that System assert that humanity is locked into it. Rather they explore
Dynamics modelling—SD—has for dealing with stake- a range of possible futures—scenarios—some of which
holders holding a range of worldviews. It does so by are certainly highly undesirable. Second, they did not
exploring the methodological assumptions of SD, empha- predict that oil would run out at 15:27 on 17th October
sising the field's aspiration to be used in participative 20XX. This absurdity is essentially a sub-case of the previ-
mode, commenting on contemporary examples of ous point; scenarios have little truck with point forecasts-
division, and reiterating the importance of supporting but pretending that they do makes for good sneering copy
accommodation amongst those holding very different from those who wish to be left unconstrained to pursue
Weltanschauungen. growth and profit, and who therefore bristle at all
mention of limits (Anon., 1972a; Forrester et al., 1974).
What these studies do suggest is that permanent growth
2 | TH E BRI DGE F ROM “WOR LD involving physical resources is an implausible aspiration.
DYNAMICS ” The reason for this is that various balancing effects would
reasonably be expected to come into play—involving
The central motivation of Blumberga's paper may use- crowding, pollution, resource depletion and others—
fully be traced back to Forrester's “World Dynamics” causing growth to plateau or even to reverse. The central
(1971) and the work that flowed from it. The model in insight that emerges from this analysis is that rather than
Forrester's book is the founding work of global modelling standing idly by and wishing for unrestricted growth only
(de Steiguer, 1997). Since much of the reaction to that to experience dire consequences, we can choose which
book is entrained with reactions to the volume that balancing effects we wish to live within.
rapidly followed it—“The Limits To Growth” (Meadows The final insight in the CoR studies is even less well
et al., 1972)—I will use again the convention of referring understood but for me has perhaps been its most power-
to the two together as the “Club of Rome studies,” or ful. This work uncovers an issue—the need to attend to
“CoR studies” (Lane, 2019). global development—and that issue has no owner. Who,
However, to describe the bridge from these works the works asks, is in charge of this stuff? No one. There is
to Blumberga's paper, it is important to cut through a vacuum of attention, a vacuum of agency. At least that
the mythology that has accreted around them (c.f. was the way things looked in the early 1970s: “There is
Bardi, 2011), to be clear about what these studies actually very little evidence that any authority exists with suffi-
say and what they do not say. Various points may be cient power to effect solutions to these problems on a
dispatched very quickly. worldwide basis” (Forrester, 1975, p. 233). The extent to

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© 2024 The Author(s). Systems Research and Behavioral Science published by International Federation for Systems Research and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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2 LANE

which the panoply of international organisations that 3 | T HE I SSUE O F DI F F E R E NT

today seek to deal with global concerns has addressed WORLDVIEWS
this vacuum is a matter of debate. That the CoR studies
brought the issue to the fore is not. The version of SD that is practised today retains the
I recall part of my reaction to reading “World Dynam- central idea that issues involving dynamic complexity
ics.” It was the late 1980s and I had only recently discov- benefit from rational analysis. However, it is more
ered SD. My naïve notion was that a team of SD explicitly participative in its approach—both as a means
modellers should convene thousands of sessions in the- of accessing the mental database and judgemental esti-
atres and conference halls around the world. In those mates, and of developing mental models so as to change
road-show sessions, these public forums, they would subsequent behaviour. It has also become more cautious
slowly build up one of the models of the causal mecha- about the ontological status of the causal mechanisms it
nisms present in the global system and thus demonstrate seeks to model, offering a view of the social realm that
the insights of the CoR studies and inspire changed might plausibly be seen as social constructivist (Lane &
behaviour. Husemann, 2002, 2008). Richardson (2022) transports
Silly nonsense, of course. Far too rational a way of this view right back to 1961. He argues that for SD, as
thinking. Here we see illustrated the narrow way in Forrester then presented it, “Systems are imaginary. We
which the SD approach is often viewed: as a means of do not find them, we conjure them” (p. 413). This sug-
dealing with dynamic complexity. The world has accu- gests that the position taken on models in “Industrial
mulations, long chains of causality, feedback loops, Dynamics” is whole-hearted “a model is merely an
delays and non-linear relationships. The result is that the epistemological device.” This stance would be very simi-
consequences of our actions are hard to think through, lar to the “Soft Systems Methodology” (SSM) approach of
social systems exhibit counterintuitive behaviour. There Checkland (1981). This view is not without merit. Never-
is therefore a need for SD modelling to untangle all of theless, I reluctantly remain unconvinced by Richardson
this so that coherent, rational policies may be on this point. SD and SSM are traditionally seen as differ-
formulated. ent modelling approaches; they might well be applied to
This is a powerful idea, the reach of which is still broadly related phenomena (e.g., Lane, 2016), but they
being explored. Consider, for example, the work by are distinct. Certainly they are difficult to bring together
Moxnes (1998, 2000). He shows that the phenomenon happily without quite considerable contortions of one or
“Tragedy of the Commons,” widely diagnosed as result- the other (Lane & Oliva, 1998). Consequently, I do not
ing from the interactions of decisions made by many share Richardson's view on this aspect of “Industrial
rational agents, can to a considerable extent be explained Dynamics.” It is worth noting that Richardson admits
in terms of the difficulties that a single rational agent has that he may be over-reaching here, basing his interpreta-
when managing dynamic complexity. tion on a single page of the work; “the evidence is scant.
Issues of dynamic complexity are what SD is about It is undoubtedly more honest of me to admit that I …
and it is easy to believe that they are the chief issues have slipped in a personal bias” (Richardson, 2022,
that confront us. I remember a convivial lunch with Jay pp.413–414). As an alternative, I have argued that Forres-
Forrester in 2002 in which he commented, “I have ter's position is considerably less clear because there is
never seen people really disagree about anything other something of a range of ideas about models in the book,
than what the consequences of a policy might be.” This these different ideas ebbing and flowing through the
was not Forrester at his best, I feel, since the ideas in work (Lane, 2022). What is notable, however, is that that
“Industrial Dynamics” (Forrester, 1961), when properly range does extend to an “SSM-like” view, a significant
understood, are much broader than this view stance for an engineer writing in the late 1950s. What is
(Lane, 2022). This is a point we return to in this piece. certainly true is that there is the move away from a naïve
For now we can say that this narrow view of SD—that realism view of models, and of the determinism that that
dynamic complexity is the chief issue bedevilling the might imply (Lane, 1999, 2000). Taken together, this all
world—is what the field is frequently taken to be. It can speaks of an increase in sophistication of SD practice and
be seen in my ludicrous idea described above of a road- of its underlying ideas. But more is needed, and Blumber-
show of public forums in which a CoR studies model is ga's paper is one exploration of that “more.”
built in front of an audience: too rational and also very When we pause to consider the problems of today, it
domineering and very objective as a way of thinking. is clear that there is a lot more going on than failures of
We now know better than this. What we know relates rational thinking when confronted with dynamic
directly to the sort of insights that Blumberga's paper complexity. Even if it is done in a participatory way and
considers. with underlying ideas of inter-subjectivity and social
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LANE 3

constructivism. That “more” is the existence in the world something of a barrier and many SSM practitioners prefer
that we all share of quite different “worldviews.” the English term. Readers should feel free to follow their
Shortly before I attended the EuSDW workshop in preference. Once one begins to use the concept of
Stuttgart in 2023 I read a piece in a right-wing British Weltanschauung completely new issues can be under-
newspaper on the climate crisis: “Europe is beginning to stood. We see divergence of opinion about what the big
turn against the prophets of climate alarmism” was its issues are. Differences regarding what values should be
headline and beneath was the typically reassuring (and brought to bear. Variation not about the consequences of
subtly disparaging of anthropogenic global warming), a policy but about what the aims of a policy ought to be.
“Levels of eco-anxiety are rising amongst the young, but As stated above, SSM was created to address issues of
the planet's future is brighter than many think” divergence, difference and variety in a manner that
(Nelson, 2023). It was what I had come to expect of this helped participants to reach an “accommodation” about
newspaper and of this writer. What interested me was what to do. Checkland used this word because he felt
the readers' comments that this piece attracted. Below is that the word “compromise” was too tainted. However,
a sample. whilst addressing difference, SSM has as a core assump-
tion that all those involved in an SSM process had
[Username 1]: CO2 is not a poison it is in enough in common with each other that they were
fact essential for all plant life on the planet willing to talk together to try to find an accommodation.
and all humans produce CO2 every time we Situations of fundamental conflict are not handled well
breathe out. It's [sic.] demonisation is proba- with SSM. The striking image that Checkland used was
bly the biggest con trick in human history. that all of those involved had to have enough shared
interests that they were willing to sit around the same
[Username 2]: There is no such thing as campfire together and talk things through. Even if a lot
significant man made global warming. That of the talking involved argument.
much is clear. The image is striking, the aspiration worthy, the
intent of the SSM approach clear. What, however, has
[Username 3]: I worry about the extra this to do with SD?
expense forced onto me by absolutely ridicu-
lous theories dreamt up by no nothings using
computer models and faux science. No actual 4 | DIFFERENT WORLDVIEWS
evidence that would satisfy a scientist. AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS

[Username 4]: The climate ‘emergency’ is Is dealing with different worldviews something that SD is
the greatest political hoax in modern history. able to handle, is even interested in trying to handle? To
get some clarity it is worth exploring three versions of
What we see here is not disagreement about the SD: what it is still occasionally mistaken as being; what it
consequences of a policy (though there are traces of this). is widely but erroneously taken as being and what it is
Rather this is versions of a viewpoint radically different actually trying to be.
from the views of The Intergovernmental Panel on To take the first, in something of an “extreme-
Climate Change, radically different from mine and prob- conditions test” (Forrester & Senge, 1980), we occasion-
ably radically different from the views of most people ally see SD likened to the fictional discipline of
reading this journal article. That said, it might still be “Psychohistory” in the “Foundation” series of science-
important to be exposed to them because, to repeat the fiction novels by Isaac Asimov. Psychohistory is a model-
observation, we share the same world with those ling approach that is used to predict (N.B.) the behaviours
who hold such views. I would propose that sometimes of large groups of people. It is practiced in secret by an
this is the issue: how people view the world—their elite group of analysts with the aim of clandestinely
Weltanschauung or, crudely, their worldview. Now the controlling events. That SD is accused of making predic-
handling of situations with divergent worldviews is a cen- tions has been discussed in Section 2. Regarding the
tral concern of Checkland's “Soft Systems Methodology,” “elite group” notion, a strongly supportive contemporary
or SSM (Checkland, 1981) and the word Weltanschauung reviewer of “Industrial Dynamics” wondered, “whether
was chosen carefully as a key element of the approach. anyone except the master and his disciples will or could
“Weltanschauung” is a much broader concept than ever be so successful with [SD]” (Wagner, 1963, p. 186). I
“worldview,” as Checkland was careful to delineate have also seen the suggestion that Asimov actually based
(Checkland & Davies, 1986) but the German word can be “Hari Seldon,” the fictional creator of Psychohistory, on
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4 LANE

Jay Forrester—a notion which is chronologically incoher- the contribution SD could make to learning (Forrester,
ent. The degree to which this is all a mistaken view of SD 2007b, 2016). This is not the Jesuitical urge to reach the
is considered in more detail elsewhere (Malczynski & child of seven so as to control them for life—though it
Lane, 2023). Suffice it to say here that the comparison is cannot dodge that interpretation completely. Ultimately,
still sometimes made and that it is annoying and very Forrester's wish was to raise wiser, more critical, more
wrong. Why then is it made? In part because SD does reflective citizens. Citizens who could, “transfer …
sometimes look that way. insights from one setting to another will help to break
Which brings us to the second version of SD, down the barriers between disciplines” (Forrester, 2007a,
erroneous again but one which is still widely held today p. 355). Citizens who demanded more systemically coher-
by outsiders. Many of the early readers of “Industrial ent policies and who therefore demanded (or even
Dynamics” (Forrester, 1961) saw the modelling approach became) politicians who would tackle problems with a
as something which, whilst not done in secret, was systems approach.
certainly done by very senior people (chief executives or System Dynamics is concerned with dynamic com-
government ministers) along with, well, perhaps not an plexity; it always has been. It is concerned with participa-
elite, but certainly highly technically trained modellers. tive modelling and in dealing with big issues; it always
A casual perusal of the book, or of articles in some has been (Lane, 2010). Bring those together, however,
journals, gives the impression of a field which is highly and they imply engagement with the perspectives of
rational and technical in nature. It may not be Psychohis- different stakeholders. They imply an interest in how
tory, exactly but it certainly can feel that way to a few for modelling can create agreement for action. In other
whom that resonance works, and to many more it still words, they imply the use of SD to handle different
feels dour, over-mathematicised and abstruse. None of worldviews.
these fit Forrester's aspirations for the field.
Hence, we arrive at the third version of SD, the one
that I would argue is what it is actually trying to be. As 5 | SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND
expressed in its earliest extended form (Forrester, 1961), SHARING THE CAMPFIRE
SD was always interested in engaging with a wide range
of stakeholders and in involving as many people as possi- Blumberga's paper is one exploration of the “more” that
ble in modelling (Lane, 2022). SD can provide: the ability to engage with different
With that in mind we might return to the CoR studies viewpoints (Blumberga, 2024). The core idea of her paper
road-show public forums idea but make some very is to use SD to explore how different Weltanschauungen
important changes. Now, in those sessions, SD modellers produce different rational policy solutions. She says that
would elicit from the audience its members' ideas about she moves from an optimisation model to an SD model
the causal mechanisms thought to be around in the because:
global system, support them in playing with the model to
learn about its behaviour, and in this highly participative “The single scenario cannot satisfy the needs
manner help people discover for themselves the insights of all involved stakeholders, and the model
that their (N.B.) model yields. should provide comprehensive insights into
Yet even that understates the aspiration. Forrester alternative energy futures.”
wanted everyone to do SD modelling and to take action
in the world based on that thinking. It is central to his She refers to:
concept of a “New Corporate Design” (Forrester, 1965). It
is seen in the story he proudly told many times about the “public debate and learning in a democratic
man whose reaction to reading “World Dynamics” was to process where heterogeneous stakeholders
run for political office to try to effect change. It explains jointly deal with common problems”
his taking the time to explain his thinking to an Ad Hoc
Subcommittee of the (United States) House of Represen- For me this is a notable achievement and an impor-
tatives, or at the annual meeting of the Program Board of tant indication of the contribution that SD can make.
the Division of Overseas Ministries of the National Coun- One can imagine going further. For example, the
cil of Churches (Forrester, 1970, 1973). It is at the centre “ideologies” covered in the paper seem to lack two world-
of his view that, “The audience must be the public in gen- views that I think I detect all around me. One might be
eral … [because] … the proper role for world modelling is called “Small Blue,” and consider people who believe in
to build public opinion.” (Forrester, 1982, p. 105 & 106). anthropogenic global warming (AGW) but who feel too
It is why he was so interested in the K-12 project and insignificant (small) to do anything useful about it
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LANE 5

themselves and are depressed (blue) by the whole thing divided about some things than out of power in a country
and so are unwillingly disengaged from action. Another with a shared general sense of how to move forwards.
might be “Crushed Red,” those who are too busy dealing Moreover, when it comes to AGW and our response to
with the stressful demands of life to be aware of AGW or it - the topic of Blumberga's paper—the issues are not
to take action. Another way of going further might be to trivial, they are existential. And the venue is not a coun-
extend what the students learn from the exercise. try, it is the planet. Engaging with those we disagree with
Blumberga has tested whether students can develop suffi- can be very hard work but there are bold souls who see
cient empathy for other worldviews that they can choose its importance and are willing to make the attempt
different policy portfolios consistent with those different (Marshall, 2014, 2015). It is an important challenge to SD
Weltanschauungen. As she reports; “role play enables exactly because we are not discussing a country anymore.
participants to reflect on alternative attitudes, experi- The campfire that people are gathered around is indeed
ences, and worldviews.” This is a good thing for her stu- the entire planet. We cannot leave. Whilst living with our
dents since we know that more diverse cultural own conscience, we have to share the world with those of
awareness can increase creativity (Saad et al., 2013). But different worldviews. Moving from bickering to discus-
we might then ask: what now? Could those same sion, working to reach an accommodation, helping that
students, equipped with their new understanding, find a process of social negotiation may be most important task
way to convene the different groups and hammer out an SD has now. Blumberga's paper indicates that we can do
accommodation? something here. As an occasional “Small Blue” I draw
These are important questions because worldviews, comfort from this prospect. When using SD we are
belief systems, are curious and very powerful things. encouraged to follow Forrester's advice and personal
They provide a shared social identity (Hobolt et al., example and show courage (Forrester, 1961, Appendix
2021). Indeed, their leaders must be “entrepreneurs of O). Therefore we should rise to this challenge.
identity,” constructing an idea set which offers a pathway
by which people can put to one side obvious identity ORCID
characteristics in favour of those promulgated by that David C. Lane https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6658-7041
belief system—a diagnosis offered as an explanation for
female support of the not notably respectful Donald RE FER EN CES
Trump (Haslam et al., 2020). Different but strongly held Anon. 1972a. Limits to Misconception: How seriously should we all
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