Global Journal of Engineering and Technology [GJET].

ISSN: 2583-3359 (Online)

Global Journal of Engineering and Technology [GJET].

ISSN: 2583-3359 (Online)
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HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED EXTREME PRECIPITATION INDICES

CHARACTERIZATION IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN (BENIN).
BY
YAROU Halissou3*, OBADA Ezéchiel1,3, TORE Daniel Bio1,3, BIAO I. Eliézer1,2, BADOU Félicien Djigbo4,
ALAMOU Adéchina Eric1,3
1
Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Travaux Publics (ENSTP), Université Nationale des Sciences, Technologies, Ingénierie
et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
2
Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Génie Mathématique et Modélisation (ENSGMM), Université Nationale des Sciences,
Technologies, Ingénierie et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
3
Laboratoire de Géoscience de l’Environnement et Application (LaGEA/UNSTIM)
4
Ecole d’Horticulture et d’Aménagement des espaces Verts (Université Nationale d’Agriculture

Abstract:
The climate changes of the last decades have made the Beninese basin of the Niger River a study area for
several researchers in order to quantify, plan, and model water and related resources for a sustainable use.
This research aims at characterizing historical (1976-2019) and projected (2021-2050) extreme precipitation
indices in the Beninese Niger River basin. Five extreme precipitation indices namely: total rainfall on wet
days (PRCPTOT), number of wet days (R1), maximum daily rainfall (RX1day), maximum rainfall in 5
consecutive days (RX5day), and total rainfall above the 95th percentile based on observed daily rainfall
amounts and HIRHAM climate model outputs were calculated for each year and for each station. Kriging
Article History was used to characterize the spatial distribution of the obtained indices while the Mann-Kendall trend test
was used to analyze their chronological evolution. The result is that the five indices show a latitudinal
Received: 22/03/2023 gradient that decreases with increasing latitude and increasing temporal trends over the historical period.
Accepted: 06/04/2023 Projecting these indices into the future (2021-2050) shows the same results with the difference that RX1day
Published: 09/04/2023 and RX5day show slight time series decreases. This situation is not without effect on the resources of the
basin. The increase in these precipitation indices could lead to natural disasters such as floods, landslides,
Vol – 2 Issue – 4
and soil erosion.
PP: - 01-07
Keywords: extreme precipitation, index, climate projection, trend.

1. Introduction West Africa is the region of the world with the largest rainfall
Over the last century, a trend of rapid global warming has deficit (Ozer et al. 2017). According to many models, rainfall
been observed. According to Rousseau et al. (2011), in the degradation could increase in the coming decades (Ozer et al.
northern hemisphere, the last 50 years are the warmest in the 2014). For Sarr and Camara (2017), the important differences
last 1300 years. Extreme climate events typically have large are observed on the evolution of rainfall in West Africa.
impacts on society, water resources, health, and the Indeed, from 1982 to 2016, the authors found a three- to four-
agricultural sector (Serhat et al, 2013). A small change in fold increase in the number of intense mesoscale convective
average conditions can likely cause large changes for an systems in the Sahel. Furthermore, it should be noted that the
extreme (Serhat et al, 2013). It is important to note that each increase in extreme excess rainfall hazard is linked to climate
dry year involves significant socioeconomic losses and change, so this could become more pronounced in the coming
ecological damage around the world (Zengchao et al, 2014). decades and ultimately lead to serious impacts on agriculture
Similarly, a very wet year results in socioeconomic losses and and infrastructure in the region (Ozer et al, 2017). According
damages. The general problem with climate change is that, to Taylor et al. (2017), this deterioration in annual rainfall has
under projected climate scenarios, it would result in a higher nevertheless been accompanied by a significant increase in
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (Giguère et severe weather events over the past 35 years in the Sahel.
al. 2006). These phenomena are even more accentuated in Some studies also show that this change is reflected in an
Africa where deforestation is very important (Gnanglè et al. intensification of rainfall and a recurrence of extreme events
2011). (more noticeable over the last decades 1991- 2010) (WMO,
2013; New et al. 2001; Christensen et al. 2007).

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 Global Journal of Engineering and Technology [GJET]. ISSN: 2583-3359 (Online)

The Beninese basin of the Niger River, located in the semi- complemented by data from the regional climate model
arid zone, is also a victim of these hazards. Indeed, it appears (RCM) DMI-HIRHAM5 (Christensen et al. (2006) for more
that rainfall in this basin will experience an increasing trend details). This RCM has a resolution of 50km and has been
(1.7 to 23.4%) according to the HIRHAM5 and RCSM forced by the output of GCM ECHAM5. The model has, at
models under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the daily scale for precipitation, historical simulations over the
but a variation of -8.5% to 17.3% for the RCA4 model period 1951-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario simulations over the
(Badou, 2016). The present research proposes to characterize period 2006-2100. The future period selected is 2021-2050.
chronologically and spatially the historical and projected
extreme rainfall indices in the Benin River Niger basin.

2. Methodology
2.1. Description of study area and data
The Beninese Niger River basin is located in the extreme
north of Benin (Figure 1). It covers an area of approximately
48,000 km² or 42% of the total area of Benin (114,763 km²).
Located between latitudes 10° and 12°30' north and
longitudes 1°32' and 3°50' east, it includes the Mékrou,
Alibori, and Sota sub-basins, which are tributaries of the
Niger River and is generally oriented SSW-NNE (Vissin,
2007). Daily rainfall data observed from 1976 to 2019 at 15
rainfall stations (Figure 1) are collected from the Benin
Figure 1: Location of study stations.
Meteorological Agency (Météo-Bénin). These data are

Table 1: Regional climate model characteristics.

Model Institution Forcing Horizontal Vertical Simulations References
MCG resolution level

HIRHAM5 DMI EC-EARTH 50km 31 1951-2100 Christensen et

al. (2006)
Jacob

2.2. Method used

Table 2: Definition of rainfall indices used
2.2.1. Bias correction
The 'Delta change' (DC) method has been used for model data Index Designation Definition Unit
correction. It is the simplest, most widely used of the bias Total rainfall Total annual
correction methods (Graham et al., 2007; Moore et al., 2008; on wet days precipitation in wet
Sperna Weiland et al., 2010), and consists of scaling the PRCPTOT mm
period (RR > = 1
observations to obtain the corrected simulations. The mm)
parameters are usually corrected with a multiplier or addictive
factor in a modest method. In this method, the factor at the Number of Number of days
scale of a period is applied to each incorrect daily observation R1mm wet days with PRCP > = 1 day
of the same period to generate the corrected daily time series mm,
(Lafon et al., 2013).
μp Maximum Annual maximum
xcor,i = xo,i × (01) RX1day mm
μb daily rainfall daily precipitation

Where , represents corrected parameters; , the Maximum Annual maximum

observed parameters. and are respectively the average Rx5day
rainfall in 5 of 5 consecutive
mm
of the simulated data of the base period and the average of the consecutive days with rainfall
data of the projection period. days

2.2.2. Calculation of extreme precipitation indices Intense Total annual

The analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Beninese basin rainfall rainfall on days
of the Niger River was done through the calculation and R95p with rainfall > 95th mm
characterization of the five (05) indices illustrated in Table 2. percentile

Trend and significance analysis was performed from 1976 to

2019 using the Mann-Kendall method.

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 Global Journal of Engineering and Technology [GJET]. ISSN: 2583-3359 (Online)

2.2.3. Evaluation of changes Table 3: Performance of the correction method on rain

Quantifying the effects of future changes in the extremes of variables.
daily climate variables is a major requirement for assessing
the vulnerability of hydrological systems to climate change. Brute Correct
Paramet Observati
Variables Station hirha ed
In this study, future changes from the baseline period are ers on
m hirham
evaluated from Equation 2. The projection sub-period chosen
Kandi 90.62 86.34 92.62
to assess changes in the rainfall series is 2021-2050 under the
RCP8.5 scenario of the HIRHAM climate model, which is Natiting 125.8
95.70 97.24
one of the models that responds best over the Benin River ECART ou 2
Niger basin (Badou, 2016). A sub-period (1990-2019) was -TYPE Parakou 87.15 83.50 91.74
chosen from the historical period as the reference period to Bembere
95.44 96.38 89.26
assess the changes. This is to have the same lengths of series. Precipitati ke
̅ ̅ on Kandi 11.06 3.37
= ̅
(2)
Natiting
34.96 3.54
Where ̅ is the average of the index over the projection ou
MAE
period considered and ̅ it's average over the reference Parakou 7.79 4.28
period. Bembere
Student's t-test was applied to the calculated indices to assess 14.92 7.19
ke
the significance of the quantified changes.
3.2. Characterization of extreme precipitation indices
3. Results in the historical period
3.1. Analysis of the performance of bias corrections Figure 3 presents in its first column the spatial distribution of
at the monthly scale the respective means of PRCPTOT, R1mm, RX1day,
Figure 2 and Table 3 show the performance of the different RX5day, and R95p. From this figure, we notice a latitudinal
results obtained from the method of corrections applied by gradient for the PRCPTOT index. Indeed, the average values
considering the monthly averages of precipitation. On the one of the indices decrease with increasing latitude. Over the
hand, these results show that the method (Delta) used to study basin, the PRCPTOT varies between 829 and 1213 mm
correct the data performed well. The table shows a large with an average of 1064 ±117mm. This index shows an
difference in the mean absolute error (MAE) between the raw increasing trend of 2.6 mm/year which is significant in the
data and the corrected data. The corrected data tend towards northern part of the basin (Figure 3). Like the PRCPTOT
zero. On the other hand, we note that the method performs index, the R1mm index shows a latitudinal gradient that
better in Kandi, Parakou, and Natitingou than in Bembèrèkè decreases with increasing latitude (Figure 3). It is also
(Figure 2). This may be due to the fact that the data are better characterized by an increasing time trend of 0.07 days/year
monitored at the three synoptic stations. that remains significant in the north of the basin (Figure 3).
This index shows an average of 35.3 ±3.6 days. It varied
between 28 and 41 days in the Benin basin of the Niger River
(Figure 3).
The RX1day index increases chronologically by 0.04
mm/year and is significant in the northeast of the study area. It
shows an average of 76 ±5.3 mm and varies between 66 and
86 mm. RX5day is characterized over the study basin by a
time trend of 0.3mm/year significant to the south and north of
the study basin. Over the basin, it varies between 109 and
141mm with an average of 125.3 ±8.2mm. The R95p index
has an average of 230 ±38 mm with a variation between 168
and 301 mm. It shows a chronological upward trend of
0.99mm/year significant in the extreme north and south of the
basin. The RX1day, RX5day, and R95p indices also each
show a latitudinal gradient that is inverse to increasing
Figure 2: Performance of the correction method on monthly
latitude (Figure 3).
rainfall (line 1 = raw data, line 2 = corrected data).

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 Global Journal of Engineering and Technology [GJET]. ISSN: 2583-3359 (Online)

show a non-significant decreasing trend of 0.05 mm/year

(Figure 4).
R95p over the period 2021-2050 would also exhibit a
latitudinal gradient that decreases with increasing latitude
(Figure 4). R95p would vary between 233 and 350 mm. This
index could average 303.2 ±33.02 mm with a significant
upward trend of 4.5 mm/yr south of the basin (Figure 4).

Figure 3 : Spatializations, trends and significances of

precipitation indices PRCPTOT, R1mm, RX1day, RX5day,
and R95p. Figure 4: Spatializations, trends, and significances of
future precipitation indices PRCPTOT, R1mm, RX1day,
3.3. Characterization of extreme precipitation indices RX5day, and R95p under HIRHAM RCP8.5.
in the future period (2021-2050) with the
HIRHAM RCP8.5 scenario 3.4. Quantification of changes and their significance
Figure 4 shows the spatialization of the means and trends and Many changes are noted for the precipitation indices in the
their significance (black dots) of the PRCPTOT, R1mm, future period compared to the selected reference period in the
RX1day, RX5day, and R95p indices as well as their historical period.
chronological evolution using the RCP8.5 scenario of the Figure 5 provides information on the average rates of change
regional climate model HIRHAM. From this figure, it can be that could be observed in precipitation indices over the future
seen that in the near future, the PRCPTOT index could vary period, as well as the significances (black dotted line) of these
between 885 and 1282 mm (Figure 4). PRCPTOT would have changes. From this figure, it can be seen that the PRCPTOT
an average of 1100 ±110 mm with a significant increasing could increase during 2021-2050 with significance noted in
trend of 4.7 mm/year in the south of the basin (Figure 4). the southern part of the basin (Figure 5). The average rate for
For the future, the decrease in the average R1mm values with this index would be 3.6%. The upward trend in PRCPTOT
increasing latitude could be observed. R1mm will probably observed for the historical period will therefore continue until
vary between 122 and 138 days (Figure 4) with an average of 2050 according to RCP8.5 of the model. The R1mm index
131 ±5.8 days and a non-significant increasing trend of 0.2 could increase statistically significant for the coming years
days/year (Figure 4). compared to the reference period with a rate of 27.3% (Figure
5).
A latitudinal gradient inversely proportional to latitude could
characterize the RX1day index (Figure 4). The index would Significant decreases from the baseline period in the RX1day
show an average of 67.6 ±8.2 mm and would oscillate index could occur in the north of the basin and significant
between 52 and 81 mm with a non-significant downward increases in the south (Figure 5). The average rate would be -
trend of 0.1 mm/year (Figure 4). 11% (Figure 5). There could be statistically significant
decreases in the RX5day index in the future period compared
The RX5day index would also show a latitudinal gradient in to the baseline period with an average rate of -22%. Intense
the near future that would decrease with increasing latitude rainfall (R95p) would likely increase (Figure 5). A
(Figure 4). RX5day would vary between 78 and 115 mm statistically significant change in this index could be noted in
(Figure 4) with an average of 98 ±10.8 mm. RX5day could the north of the basin with an average rate of 34%.

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 Global Journal of Engineering and Technology [GJET]. ISSN: 2583-3359 (Online)

The average precipitation and rainy days are thus expected to

increase in the basin until 2050. These results were obtained
by Obada (2017) for the Mekrou basin, by Badou (2016) for
the Beninese Niger River basin, by Sarr and Camara, (2017)
Figure 5: Changes and their significance in precipitation for Senegal, by Ly et al. (2013), Diallo et al. (2016) and by
indices between the future period and the reference period. Sylla et al. (2012) for the Western Sahel. It is also important
to note that not all indices change significantly. The
4. Discussions
significant significances are for the RX1day and RX5day
The Beninese basin of the Niger River is subject to the
indices with the two HIRHAM model scenarios.
deterioration of rainfall according to Vissin (2007). Indeed,
total rainfall, the number of rainy days, and wet sequences Precautions should be taken in the coming years for heavy
have experienced chronological decreases since the 1970s, rainfall and subsequent rainfall in the study area. These results
while dry sequences have increased. This situation explains obtained, if they are realized, will increase the flooding in the
the shortening of the rainy season and the extension of the dry study area, especially on the low-slope areas. In steeply
seasons. These results confirm those of New et al. (2006) for sloping areas, there is a risk of severe soil erosion. In the
the whole of West Africa; Halissou et al. (2019) for the eroded areas, Arab (cultivable) land will probably be lost,
Beninese basin of the Niger River and Obada (2017) for the while the flooded areas will not be suitable for certain crops
Mekrou River basin. Considering the two scenarios (RCP4.5 such as cotton. It is therefore important to put in place large-
and RCP8.5) of the HIRHAM model, total rainfall scale facilities such as dams for surplus water for later use.
(PRCPTOT) increases by about 1mm/decade over the Erosion control systems should also be put in place for steeply
projection period (2021-2050) compared to the reference sloping areas.
period (1976-2019). These results confirm those of Obada
(2017) for the Mékrou basin, which is a sub-basin of the 5. Conclusion
Beninese Niger River basin. The same results are obtained by At the end of the research, it was found that, in the analysis of
Badou (2016) with the HIRHAM climate model for the entire the extreme rainfall indices of the Beninese basin of the Niger
Beninese Niger River basin. The average wet days (R1mm) River, as observed throughout West Africa by several studies,
increase on average by about 3 days/decade for all scenarios the indices of extreme rainfall have experienced great
for the future period. These results confirm those obtained for variations in time and space. The PRCPTOT, R1mm,
West Africa and Senegal (Sarr and Camara, 2017). In the RX1day, RX5day, and R95p indices analyzed show
present work, we note the resumption of increasing trends in increasing time trends. Natural geohazard phenomena
rainy seasons and the number of rainy days. The intervention including floods, landslides, soil erosion, etc. are therefore
of a dry sequence during a rainy period is not without expected in the Beninese Niger River basin. This will
consequence on the crop calendar. If it occurs at the beginning probably lead to environmental degradation and a decrease in
or in the middle of the growing season, it can cause a false agricultural yields, not to mention the weakening of transport
start to the season or even jeopardize an entire crop year. infrastructures.

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