International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)

E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

A Study on Impact of Exchange Rate

Fluctuations on Indian Exports
Gande Sri Sai Vaibhav

Undergraduate in Bachelors of Commerce Honors, Department of Commerce, Bhavan’s Vivekananda

College of Science, Humanities and Commerce

Abstract
The exports of a nation are advantageous to its growth as exports help expand and create a global market
for locally produced goods, contributes towards the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), assists
a country earn foreign exchange reserves which could potentially be used to import necessary goods and
services to the nation. One of the major ways of promoting exports is to devalue the home currency thereby
making the exports cheaper for the potential importers allowing them to import a larger volume of goods
from the home country i.e. a cheaper domestic currency increases the total volume of exports. This study
takes into account Annual Exchange Rates and exports of different basket of commodities namely
Chemical Products, Mineral Products, Precious Metals, Metals & Machines and estimates the existence
of correlation between the two variables and estimate the impact of the independent variable (Annual
Exchange rates) on the dependent variable (Basket of goods Exported). The correlation between the
Annual Exchange rates and Chemical Products and Machines is positive and has a higher regression, the
correlation value for Metals is positive. However, the regression is low and the significant value for
Mineral Products and Precious metals is greater than 0.05 hence the correlation and regression will not be
accepted.

Keywords: Annual Exchange Rates, Annual Exports, Baskets of Commodities.

1. Introduction
The Indian Economy has experienced significant growth in recent years and the thriving exports sector
has continuously served as a cornerstone fuelling this economic growth, and integrating the domestic
economy with the global economy. The economic growth has been significant due to the extremely
dynamic nature of the exports of this nation. India’s overall exports projected to scale new heights,
growing at 13.84 percent during FY 2022-23 over FY 2021-22 to achieve USD 770.18 billion worth of
exportsi. The main drivers of merchandise export growth in February 2024 include Engineering Goods,
Electronic Goods, Organic & Inorganic Chemicals, Drugs & Pharmaceuticals and Petroleum Products.
The exports of Drugs and Pharmaceutical Products in February 2024 stands at USD 2.51 Billion, an
increase of 22.24% over USD 2.06 Billion in February 2023 Petroleum Products exports in February 2024
register growth of 5.08% at USD 8.24 Billion from USD 7.84 Billion in February 2023ii.
After the adoption of the Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation model, India’s exports have
shifted from primary goods to secondary goods such as readymade garments, refined petroleum which
made up a significant portion of the exports followed by gems and jewellery and basic chemicals and
pharmaceuticals. During the same period, exports of agricultural products such as Rice, Cotton, and fabrics

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 1

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

have declined due to higher demand in the internal market and the objective of the nation to become self-
reliant. However, these exports still form a major noticeable part of the total exports of the nation even till
this day. From 1995-2005, the primary export from India was textiles which contributed towards the total
exports at a declining rate over the decade followed by precious metals. From 2006, the exports of mineral
products were the primary exports followed by the exports of gems and jewellery until 2014 when
chemical products took over. From 2015-2017, gems and jewellery made up the primary exports which
was overtaken by mineral products in 2018. From 2019-2021, chemical products formed the primary
exports followed by mineral products.
As exports are one of the factors which contribute towards the growth of an economy, there are several
factors which affect the growth of exports. These factors are further divided into Internal factors such as
production costs, quality and standards of the product, Government policies and External factors such as
Economic conditions across the global economy. Trade policies and regulations, Competition from other
nations and Exchange rate fluctuations.
The Indian Rupee has adopted a floating exchange rate, a form of currency peg with respect to the US
dollar wherein the value of the Indian Rupee is expressed in terms of US Dollars and this value will be
determined and fixed by the market forces of demand and supply. The adoption of a floating exchange
rate overtime creates exchange rate fluctuations. Exchange rate fluctuations refers to the continuous
change in the relative values of two currencies where the value of one currency expressed in terms of
another currency is constantly shifting i.e. it is either appreciating or depreciating. The changes occur in
the short term due to speculation and in the long run due to changes in interest rates, inflation and supply
and demand.
According to the principles of macroeconomics and features of the global market, exchange rate
fluctuations have an impact on the price of exports which indirectly affect the total volume of exports.
Following these principles, the changes in value of the Indian Rupee (exchange rate fluctuations) have an
impact on the nation’s exports wherein a stronger Rupee makes exports expensive and less competitive
on the global markets thereby reducing the total volume of exports and a weaker Rupee offers an advantage
to the exporters by making the product or service cheaper for potential importers, makes exports more
competitive in comparison to other exporters thereby increasing the total volume of exports from the
country.
1.1. Need For Study
Exchange Rate fluctuations are complex and affect different sectors, industries and exports from these
sectors and industries asymmetrically. The study would take into consideration various basket of goods
namely Chemical Products, Mineral Products and Precious Metals exported from India and aims to
understand the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and exports of these basket of commodities
and determine the extent of such impact of exchange rates on exports of these basket of commodities.
1.2. Review of Literature
Yin-Wong Cheung & Rajeswari Sengupta (December 2012): This study shows the impact of exchange
rate movements on exports specifically from the non-financial sector firms where it was found that the
exchange rate movements such as appreciation does have a negative impact on the exports whereas
depreciation promotes exports. It was also found that the firms which had smaller export shares tend to
have a stronger response to this volatility.
P. R. Venugopal & P. Avinash (November 2022): The study concluded that there is an inverse
relationship between the exports of India and the Average exchange rate. If AER (-1) Increases by Rupee

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 2

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

1 then there is a decrease in current year Exports by Rupee 0.607932 & if AER (-1) decrease by Rupee 1
then the Current Period Exports will increase by Rupee 0.607932.
Javed Iqbal, Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar (June 2023); This study along with examining the
impact of exchange rate fluctuations, also examines the impact of the “Third Country Effect”. It finds that
when there is an increased volatility in Rupee-Yen exchange rate, it may likely convert into more trade
from India to the Us rather than Japan, the third country in the study.
P. Srinivasan &M. Kalaivani (April 2013): This study analyses the impact of exchange rate volatility
on the exports of India taking the time period from 1970-2011. The findings indicate that the exchange
rate volatility has a noticeable negative impact on real exports both in the short-run and long-run, implying
that higher exchange rate fluctuation tends to reduce real exports in India.
Oxford Brookes University (June 2015): This study examines the effect of exchange rate volatilities on
international trade of Mexico, Turkey, Nigeria and Indonesia (MINT Economies). It has been found that
in the short run, the volatility had a significant impact on the import/exports of Mexico and Indonesia.
However, in the long run, only Turkey had shown an impact of volatility on imports and exports which
was not very significant.
Manoj Kumar Sinha (September 2016): This study examines the Structural changes in the composition
of the Indian Exports post Economic reform period. Taking into account the exports from 1987, the study
found out that the overall export of Petroleum products, Chemical Products and Pharmaceuticals have
steadily increased over the decades whereas the contribution of precious metals and gemstones to the total
exports have remained the same over the years. This study also showed that the policy of import
substitution and export promotion has worked in the post-economic reform period as earlier primary
commodities were exported whereas now, processed and manufactured goods are being exported
alongside primary goods.
Muhammad Azhar (2022); The following study evaluates India’s Emergence as a Petroleum Product
Exporter. The study took into consideration the data regarding Petroleum Imports and estimated its
proportion in total imports, Petroleum Exports and estimated its proportion in total exports, Exports of
Motor spirit and its proportion in total exports of Petroleum Products, and Exports of Naphtha and its
proportion in total exports of Petroleum Products. Petroleum Products have been contributing to a
significant proportion of the Indian Exports. However, the domestic demand still remains high due to
which the government needs to play a balancing act to promote exports as well as satisfy the nation’s
demand.
The World Bank: This study by the International Monetary Fund and International Financial Statistics,
which published the data about the Official Exchange rates. These are the rates determined by the national
authorities or legally authorised exchange markets. The calculation is done as annual averages which are
calculated from the monthly averages of the local currency in units relative to the US Dollar. The Exchange
rates in this study are taken from this study for the years 2013-2022
The Observatory of Economic Complexity: This study shows the historical data of Indian Exports until
2022 and defines all the exports and groups them based on the characteristics of the exported commodity.
For this study, Exports of Chemical Products (includes Packaged Medicaments, Nitrogen Heterocyclic
Compounds, Pesticides, Cyclic Hydrocarbons, Synthetic Colouring Matter, vaccines, Blood, Antisera and
Toxin, etc.), Exports of Mineral Products (includes Refined Petroleum, coal tar oil, Iron Ore, Granite,
Electricity, Petroleum Gas, Sulphur, Salt, Coke, Petroleum Coke, Barium Sulphate, Clays, Titanium Ore,
Coal Briquettes, Cement, Petroleum Jelly, Quartz etc.) and Exports of Precious Metals (includes primarily

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 3

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

includes Diamonds and Jewellery, followed by Synthetic Reconstructed Jewellery Stones, Precious
Stones, Precious Metals Scams, Imitation Jewellery, Gold, Platinum, Pearl Products, Metal-Clad Products,
Precious Stone Dust, Silver etc.) for the period of 2013-2022.
1.3. Objective
● Identify types of goods exported: The first objective of the study is to identify and select the type of
goods being exported based on the total value of that type of goods exported. E.g. Chemical products,
Mineral products etc.
● Correlation & Regression Analysis: Statistical analyses such as Correlation and regression would
be applied on the values of exchange rates on a yearly basis and total annual exports to compare and
analyse the impact of the former on the latter.
1.4. Methodology of Study
This study would utilise quantitative approach and data to analyse the relationship between the data of the
exchange rates and exports of various types of goods from the time period 2013-2022. A correlation
analysis would be performed to determine whether there is a direct or inverse relationship between both
factors and regression analysis would be performed to obtain the impact and relationship between
Exchange rate volatility and exports of various types of goods.
1.5. Scope of Study
The study will take into account the exchange rates of India from a period of 2013-2022 and the exports
of three types of goods which are Chemical Products which includes packaged medicaments, pesticides,
vaccines, essential oils, etc, Mineral Products which includes Refined petroleum, Iron ore, Salt, Petroleum
gas, Coal etc, and precious metals which includes Diamonds, Gold, Silver, Jewellery etc, over the same
time period. Correlation and regression analysis will be performed to understand and estimate the impact
of exchange rate volatility on the above goods.
1.6. Limitations of Study
● Time Period: This study completely uses secondary data for the time period of 2012-2021 and
generalisation for the entire time period cannot be done due to change in the dynamics of the economy.
● Sectoral Focus: This study takes into account only a few sectors of the exports from India and
generalisation of these results to the overall exports of the nation cannot be done due to the varied
characteristics and unique demands of each type of goods exported.
● Policy changes: The policy changes made by the government during the selected time frame might
affect the values and variables in the data which might adversely affect the data taken into
consideration.

2. Theoretical Framework
2.1. Exchange Rates
An Exchange rate is the rate at which one nation’s currency can be exchanged with another nation’s
currency. It can also be considered as the value of one currency expressed in terms of another currency.
There are several factors which affect exchange rates of currencies. They include Macro-economic factors
such as Inflation, Interest Rates, Recession, Balance of trade, Current Account Deficits, etc. and Political
factors such as Political Stability of the nation, Public Debt and Government Interventions with the
assistance of Central banks.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 4

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

There are several types of exchange rates which are as follows:

Fixed/Pegged Exchange Rate: Under Pegged exchange rate system, the government or governmental
institution such as a central bank sets an exchange rate for the national currency by linking or pegging it
to precious metals such as gold (Gold Standard) which was adopted internationally during the 1870s and
lasted until the First World War or fixed to a stronger or a globally accepted currency. For e.g. The Saudi
Arabian and Qatari Riyal are pegged to the US Dollar since the early 2000s and the value has remained
fixed ever since.
Floating/ Flexible Exchange Rate: Under the Floating exchange rate system, the exchange rates are not
fixed by the government or governmental institutions. Instead, the exchange rates in this system fluctuate
on the basis of demand and supply of both the domestic and foreign currency in the home country and the
effects of various economic factors such as inflation and interest rates i.e. the market forces are freely
allowed to determine the exchange rates. The examples of such currencies are The US Dollar, Canadian
Dollar, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Chilean Peso and Mexican Peso.
Managed Float/ Pegged Float: Managed float exchange rate system is a hybrid system wherein the
market forces are allowed to influence the exchange rates. However, from time to time there is an
intervention by the nation’s government or governmental institutions such as central banks which control
and manipulate the demand and supply of the currency in order to artificially appreciate or depreciate the
currency value in order to promote exports, impede imports etc. This is done by increasing or decreasing
the supply of domestic or foreign currency in the economy, increasing or decreasing the interest rates etc.
Examples of currencies that use this system are Indian Rupee, Turkish Lira, Pakistani Rupee, Sri Lankan
Rupee etc.
2.1.1. Evolution of Exchange rates in India
In India post-independence, the Bretton Woods system was adopted where a fixed currency exchange rate
would be adopted by using gold as the basic standard. During the existence of the system, the India Rupee
was pegged to the Pound Sterling. The Rupee was delinked from the Pound Sterling in 1975 as a cause of
the decline in trade with the United Kingdom and the subsequent collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
From 1975-1992, the exchange rate of Rupee was completely determined by the Reserve bank of India
where day to day intervention was done by the Reserve bank. During the 1990s the reserves of foreign
currency in India depleted which created a problematic economic system due to which the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested India to adopt the Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation (LPG)
model. In March 1992, the Liberalised Exchange Rate Management System where dual exchange rate
system was adopted where one exchange rate is adopted as the official exchange rate determined by the
Central bank i.e. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and another exchange rate known as Interbank rate or
Market rate where the exchange rate is determined by the market forces of demand and supply dynamics
in the foreign exchange market. On 1 March 1993 the dual exchange rate system was converted into one
sole exchange rate. The exchange rates in India thereafter have been thus determined by the market
dynamics of supply and demand of the foreign exchange rate market with the involvement of the Reserve
Bank to maintain the orderly conditions of the foreign exchange market by sales and purchases of the
home and foreign currency to maintain the ideal exchange rateiii.
In this study, the exchange rate refers to the rate determined by national authorities or rates determined by
legally sanctioned exchange markets. The exchange rates are annual averages which are estimated based
on the monthly average exchange rates and are calculated by the International Monetary Fund and
International Financial Statistics and published by the World Bankiv.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 5

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

2.2. Exports and Exports of India

Exports are goods and services that are produced in the home country to sell to buyers in a foreign country.
Exports along with imports make up international trade. Exports allow the firms of the home country to
expand their markets and access the global markets for their goods. The net exports which are the Total
Exports less Total Imports (𝚺 Exports - 𝚺 Imports) form a part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
hence Exports also contribute towards the nation’s financial and economic well-being and stability.
Exports also provide the nation with useful foreign exchange reserves which can be used to purchase
necessary imports or manipulate the value of the exchange rate of Indian Rupee in the foreign exchange
markets.
2.2.1. History of exports from the Indian Sub-continent
Exports or foreign trade began from the Indian sub-continent during the times of the Indus-valley
civilisation where trade primarily flowed to ancient Mesopotamia, another river-based civilization that
existed between the Tigris and the Euphrates where it is being believed that the trade surplus was in the
favour of the Indus Valley as they exported a lot more than the imports from Mesopotamia. Their exports
primarily included gold jewellery, Cotton Textiles, Timber, Precious stones, items made of copper and
bronze and livestock such as water buffaloes and live chicken The Mesopotamians primarily exported
Woolen textiles, Silver, Copper ingots and Tin.
During later periods the exports still [persisted to flow westwards towards modern day Europe however
the trade routes were controlled by the Seleucid Empire and later the Indo-Greek kingdom. However, the
trade flowed under heavy restrictions which included precious stones and textiles. With the fall of these
kingdoms, direct land routes and sea trade routes were established by the first century B.C.E. between the
Roman Empire and the Indian Kingdoms. This trade primarily flowed from the Tamil ports and the
primary traded goods were Black pepper, gold, coral, thin clothes, copper, tin, lead, etc.
In the mediaeval era, during the Mughal rule the primary focus was on agriculture hence the primary
exports from the Indian subcontinent were of highly valued agricultural products such as cotton, pepper,
silk, rice and tobacco.
Later as the British took over India in the form of the establishment of the East India Company and later
the merging of the subcontinent into the empire, the exports from India were primarily meant to satisfy
the strategic needs of the British Empire. The exports primarily included raw materials, and agricultural
goods which included primarily cotton, indigo, salt, pepper, spices, sugar, tea, raw silk, jute. Post
independence, till the 1950s the foreign trade still remained directed towards the United Kingdomv. In the
later years until the Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation model was being adopted, India’s
exports still primarily consisted of exports of Primary goods such as agricultural produce or the exports
of precious metals and gems.
However, upon and after the adoption of the Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation model, India’s
exports have shifted from primary goods to secondary goods such as readymade garments, refined
petroleum which made up a significant portion of the exports followed by gems and jewellery and basic
chemicals and pharmaceuticals. During the same period, exports of agricultural products such as Rice,
Cotton, and fabrics have declined due to higher demand in the internal market and the objective of the
nation to become self-reliant. However, these exports still form a major noticeable part of the total exports
of the nation even till this day. From 1995-2005, the primary export from India was textiles which
contributed towards the total exports at a declining rate over the decade followed by precious metals. From
2006, the exports of mineral products were the primary exports followed by the exports of gems and

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 6

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

jewellery until 2014 when chemical products took over. From 2015-2017, gems and jewellery made up
the primary exports which was overtaken by mineral products in 2018. From 2019-2021, chemical
products formed the primary exports followed by mineral productsvi.
From the beginning of time the exports from India always included primary goods such as agricultural
products, processed textiles made of cotton, precious metals, gems and jewellery. India has always been a
self-sufficient nation when it comes to agricultural goods hence the exports of these products have always
existed from the sub-continent. India also always has a thriving precious metals and gemstone industry
where India accounts for about 90-95% of the total polished diamonds exports of the world where the
primary export markets are the United States of America and China.
In the following study, the exchange rates over the years, Mineral products which primarily includes
Refined petroleum, Coal tar, Iron ore, Granite, Petroleum gas, Sulphur, Salt, Titanium ore etc vii, Chemical
Products which include Packaged medicaments, Pesticides, Antibiotics, Vaccines, Toxins, Hormones,
Vitamins, Essential oils, Synthetic colouring etcviii, Precious Metals which includes Diamonds, Jewellery,
Synthetic and Reconstructed Jewellery stones, Precious Stones, Gold, Pearl, Platinum products, Imitation
Jewellery etc, Metals which include Raw Aluminium, Ferroalloys, Hot Rolled Iron, Iron Structures, Raw
Zinc, Semi Finished Iron, Other Iron Products, Iron Pipes, Iron Housewares, Raw Lead, Refined Copper,
Other Stainless Steel Bars, Iron Pipe Fittings, Aluminium Foil, Other Aluminium Products ix, and
Machines which include Broadcasting Equipment, Electrical transformers, Gas Turbines, Transmissions,
Valves, Insulated Wire, Engine Parts, Combustion Engines, Other Engines, Liquid Pumps, Air Pumps,
Excavation Machinery, Electric Motor Parts, Centrifuges, Large Construction Vehicles , Electric
Batteries, Electric Motors, ball Bearings etc x

2.3. Relationship Between Exchange rates and Exports

A depreciating currency is advantageous for a country interested in export promotion as a depreciating
currency makes exports cheaper for foreign buyers. In such a situation, it takes more of the home currency
to purchase units of foreign currency and if prices remain relatively stable, it allows the foreign buyers to
buy more thereby increasing the export volume and creating a competitive advantage for the home
country’s exports on the global market. However, this situation will make imports a costly affair for the
home country. Conversely, an appreciation of the currency makes the exports of the home currency less
competitive as the foreign buyer has to pay more in order to obtain the same amount of goods. However,
this conversely makes imports for the home country relatively cheaper.

3. Data Analysis and Interpretation

In this study, line graphs are used to show the changes in exports in comparison to the annual exchange
rate fluctuations over the time period of 2013-22 and correlation and regression analyses are performed
for Chemical products, Mineral products and precious metals to understand the impact of annual exchange
rates on export of the specific group of products and to understand the extent of the impact of changes in
annual exchange and exports of specific groups of products.

3.1. HYPOTHESES
• H0 (Null Hypothesis): There is no significant relationship between Annual Exchange Rates and the
Exports of Chemical Products, Mineral Products, Precious Metals, Metals & Machines.
• H1 (Alternative Hypothesis): There is significant relationship between Annual Exchange Rates and

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 7

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

the Exports of Chemical Products, Mineral Products, Precious Metals, Metals & Machines.
• The Hypotheses will be tested with the methods of Correlation and Regression and if the significant
value is less than 0.05 (Sig Value < 0.05), the null hypothesis will be rejected.

3.2. Data Analysis of Chemical Products:

Exports of Chemical Products include Packaged Medicaments, Nitrogen Heterocyclic Compounds,
Pesticides, Cyclic Hydrocarbons, Synthetic Colouring Matter, vaccines, Blood, Antisera and Toxins,
Nucleic Acids, Oxygen Amino Compounds, Antibiotics, Essential Oils, Cleaning Products, Beauty
Products, Perfumes, Glues, Soap, Hair Products, Shaving Products, Dyes, Enzymes, Waxes etcxi.
Table 1(a): Years, Exchange Rates xii(The World Bank) & Chemical Product Exports xiii(The
Observatory of Economic Complexity)
Years Exchange rates in Rupees Chemical Products in USD
Billions

2013 58.6 37

2014 61.03 36.6

2015 64.15 35.9

2016 67.2 37.2

2017 65.12 40.5

2018 68.39 47.1

2019 70.42 50.6

2020 74.1 50.9

2021 73.92 60.4

2022 78.6 64.3

Table 1(a) shows the data used in the study for 10 years from 2013-2022. It also shows the Annual
Exchange rates of India in Rupees for the same time period and Exports of Chemical Products from India
whose value is denoted in American Dollars (USD) in Billions. In the table we can see a trend where, as
the exchange rate (independent variable) increases, the exports of Chemical products (dependent variable)
also rise evenly throughout the 10-year period. This hints towards an existence of a correlation between
the two variables.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 8

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Graph 1: Annual Exchange Rates (Blue) and Chemical Product Exports in USD Billions

Through Graph 1 where the annual exchange rates and exports of chemical products are shown in the form
of a line graph, we can see a clear trend between the two variables where, as the annual exchange rates
rise, the exports of Chemical products also evenly climb in value from the year 2013 - 2022. With this it
can be assumed that a correlation exists between Annual exchange rates and the exports of said chemical
products. The correlation will be estimated by using the Correlation by Pearson and if the significant value
is less than 0.05, the correlation is said to be significant and will be accepted.

Table 1(b): Correlation between Exchange rates & Exports of Chemical Products

In the Correlation (Pearson) analysis Table 1(b) Correlation between Exchange Rates and Exports of
Chemical Products, the estimated significant value is 0.000. In order to have a significant correlation, the
significant value must be less than 0.05 (Sig. <0.05) and since the significant value for the performed
analysis is 0.00 which is less than 0.05 (Sig. 0.00 < 0.05), the null hypothesis is rejected and it can be
assumed that there exists a significant correlation relationship between Annual exchange rates and Exports
of Chemical products. The correlation is considered to be negative if the value is or close -1 and is
considered to be positive if the value is or close to +1. Here the Pearson Correlation value for Chemical
Products is 0.914, hence there is a highly positive relationship between the Annual exchange rates and

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 9

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Chemical Product exports i.e. an increase in exchange rates results in the increase in exports of chemical
products.

Table 1(c): ANOVA for regression analysis

To estimate the strength of the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Chemical
products, Linear Regression analysis is performed. Through ANOVA in Table 1(c) we can estimate the
significant value for the two variables i.e. Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Chemical Products. There
is a significant impact of one variable on the other if the significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05).
Here the significant value is 0.00 which is less than the maximum amount of 0.05 (Sig 0.00 < 0.05) Hence
the null hypothesis is rejected and it can be assumed that there is a significant impact of the Annual
Exchange Rates (independent variable) on Exports of Chemical Products (Dependent Variable).

Table 1(d): Regression Analysis between Exchange Rates & Chemical Products

Through the Regression analysis shown in Table 1(d), the estimated R value is 0.914 which indicates a
positive correlation i.e. a rise in Annual Exchange rate (independent variable) also results in an even rise
in the Exports of chemical Products (dependent variable). R-Square is used to estimate the proportion of
variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Chemical Products) which is caused by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange rates). Here the R-Square value is 0.835 i.e. 83.5% which indicates that 83.5%
of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Chemical Products) can be explained by the
independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates).

3.2. Data Analysis of Mineral Products

Exports of Mineral Products include a wide bucket of items which are Refined Petroleum, coal tar oil,
Iron Ore, Granite, Electricity, Petroleum Gas, Sulphur, Salt, Coke, Petroleum Coke, Barium Sulphate,
Clays, Titanium Ore, Coal Briquettes, Cement, Petroleum Jelly, Quartz etcxiv.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 10

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Table 2(a): Years, Exchange rates xv(The World Bank) & Mineral Product Exports xvi (The
Observatory of Economic Complexity)
Years Exchange Rates in Rupees Mineral Products in USD Billions

2013 58.6 69.1

2014 61.03 66.7

2015 64.15 33.8

2016 67.2 30

2017 65.12 38.4

2018 68.39 52.9

2019 70.42 46.9

2020 74.1 33.5

2021 73.92 59.1

2022 78.6 95
Table 2(a) shows the data used in the study for 10 years from 2013-2022. It also shows the Annual
Exchange rates of India in Rupees for the same time period and Exports of Mineral Products from India
whose value is denoted in American Dollars (USD) in Billions. In the table, a trend between the Annual
Exchange rates (independent variable) and Exports of Mineral Products (dependent variable is not evident.
This hints towards limited or no correlation between the two variables.

Graph 2: Annual Exchange Rates (Blue) and Exports of Mineral Products in USD Billions

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 11

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Through Graph 2 where the annual exchange rates and exports of Mineral products are shown in the form
of a line graph, there does not exist a clear trend between the two variables, which are annual exchange
rates and the exports of Mineral products. There is a clear fall in the exports of mineral products between
2015 and 2018 and another fall in 2019 and 2020. With this it can be assumed that correlation does not
exist between Annual exchange rates and the exports of said Mineral Products. The correlation will be
estimated by using the Correlation by Pearson and if the significant value is less than 0.05, the correlation
is said to be significant and will be accepted.

Table 2(b): Correlation between Exchange rates & Exports of Mineral Products

In the Correlation (Pearson) analysis Table 2(b) Correlation between Exchange Rates and Exports of
Mineral Products, the estimated significant value is 0.570. In order to have a significant correlation, the
significant value must be less than 0.05 (Sig. <0.05) and since the significant value for the performed
analysis is 0.570 which is greater than 0.05 (Sig. 0.570 > 0.05), the null hypothesis is accepted and the
relationship between Annual exchange rates and Exports of Mineral products does not have significant
correlation. The correlation is considered to be negative if the value is or close -1 and is considered to be
positive if the value is or close to +1. Here the Pearson Correlation value for Mineral Products is 0.205,
hence there is a low positive relationship between the Annual exchange rates and Mineral Product exports.

Table 2(c): ANOVA for regression analysis

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 12

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

To estimate the strength of the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Mineral
products, Linear Regression analysis is performed. Through ANOVA in Table 2(c) we can estimate the
significant value for the two variables i.e. Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Mineral Products. There
is a significant impact of one variable on the other if the significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05).
Here the significant value is 0.570 which is greater than the maximum amount of 0.05 (Sig 0.570 > 0.05).
Hence the null hypothesis is accepted and it can be assumed that there is no significant impact of the
Annual Exchange Rates (independent variable) on Exports of Mineral Products (Dependent Variable).

Table 2(d): Regression Analysis between exchange Rate & Mineral Products

Through the Regression analysis shown in Table 2(d), the estimated R value is 0.205 which indicates a
low positive correlation i.e. a rise in Annual Exchange rate (independent variable) results in a low rise in
the Exports of Mineral Products (dependent variable). R-Square is used to estimate the proportion of
variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Mineral Products) which is caused by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange rates). Here the R-Square value is 0.042 i.e. 4.2% which indicates that 4.2%
of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Mineral Products) can be explained by the
independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates) which indicates that factors other than Exchange rates
influence the exports of Mineral Products.

3.3. Data Analysis of Precious Metals

Exports of Precious Metals primarily includes Diamonds and Jewellery, followed by Synthetic
Reconstructed Jewellery Stones, Precious Stones, Precious Metals Scraps, Imitation Jewellery, Gold,
Platinum, Pearl Products, Metal-Clad Products, Precious Stone Dust, Silver etcxvii.

Table 3(a): Years, Exchange rates xviii(The World Bank) & Exports of Precious Metals xix(The
Observatory of Economic Complexity)
Year Exchange rates in Rupees Precious Metals in USD Billions

2013 58.6 44

2014 61.03 36

2015 64.15 40.3

2016 67.2 43.6

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 13

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

2017 65.12 44.4

2018 68.39 41

2019 70.42 39.2

2020 74.1 26.1

2021 73.92 40.6

2022 78.6 41.6

Table 3(a) shows the data used in the study for 10 years from 2013-2022. It also shows the Annual
Exchange rates of India in Rupees for the same time period and Exports of Precious Metals from India
whose value is denoted in American Dollars (USD) in Billions. In the table, a trend between the Annual
Exchange rates (independent variable) and Exports of Mineral Products (dependent variable) is not
evident. This hints towards limited or no correlation between the two variables.

Graph 3: Annual Exchange Rates (Blue) and Exports of Precious Metals in USD Billions

Through Graph 3 where the Annual Exchange Rates and exports of Precious metals are shown in the form
of a line graph, there does not exist a clear trend between the two variables, which are annual exchange
rates and the exports of Precious Metals. There is a clear fall in the exports of Precious Metals between
2018 and 2020. With this it can be assumed that correlation does not exist between Annual exchange rates
and the exports of said Precious Metals Products. The correlation will be estimated by using the
Correlation by Pearson and if the significant value is less than 0.05, the correlation is said to be significant
and will be accepted.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 14

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Table 3(b): Correlation between Exchange rates & Exports of Precious Metals

In the Correlation (Pearson) analysis Table 3(b) Correlation between Exchange Rates and Exports of
Precious Metals, the estimated significant value is 0.395. In order to have a significant correlation, the
significant value must be less than 0.05 (Sig. <0.05) and since the significant value for the performed
analysis is 0.395 which is greater than 0.05 (Sig. 0.395 > 0.05), therefore the null hypothesis is accepted
and there is no significant correlation relationship between Annual exchange rates and Exports of Precious
Metals. The correlation is considered to be negative if the value is or close -1 and is considered to be
positive if the value is or close to +1. Here the Pearson Correlation value for Precious Metals is -0.303,
hence there is a low negative relationship between the Annual exchange rates and Precious metal exports.

Table 3(c): ANOVA for Regression analysis

To estimate the strength of the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Precious
Metals, Linear Regression analysis is performed. Through ANOVA in Table 3(c) we can estimate the
significant value for the two variables i.e. Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Precious Metals. There
is a significant impact of one variable on the other if the significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05).
Here the significant value is 0.395 which is greater than the maximum amount of 0.05 (Sig 0.395 > 0.05).
Hence the null hypothesis is accepted and it can be assumed that there is no significant impact of the
Annual Exchange Rates (independent variable) on Exports of Precious Metals (Dependent Variable).

Table 3(d): Regression Analysis between Exchange rates & Exports of Precious Metals

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 15

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Through the Regression analysis shown in Table 3(d), the estimated R value is 0.303 which indicates a
low positive correlation i.e. a rise in Annual Exchange rate (independent variable) results in a low rise in
the Exports of Precious metals (dependent variable). R-Square is used to estimate the proportion of
variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Precious Metals) which is caused by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange rates). Here the R-Square value is 0.092 i.e. 9.2% which indicates that 9.2%
of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Precious Metals) can be explained by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange Rates) which indicates that factors other than Exchange rates influence the
exports of Precious Metals.

3.4. Data Analysis of Metals

Exports of Metals include Raw Aluminium, Ferroalloys, Hot Rolled Iron, Iron Structures, Raw Zinc, Semi
Finished Iron, Other Iron Products, Iron Pipes, Iron Housewares, Raw Lead, Refined Copper, Other
Stainless-Steel Bars, Iron Pipe Fittings, Aluminium Foil, Other Aluminium Products etcxx.

Table 4(a): Years, Exchange rates xxi(The World Bank) & Exports of Metals xxii(The Observatory
of Economic Complexity)
Year Exchange Rate in Rupees Metals in USD Billions

2013 58.6 26.5

2014 61.03 26.8

2015 64.15 22.9

2016 67.2 20.5

2017 65.12 30.2

2018 68.39 28.8

2019 70.42 27.3

2020 74.1 27.2

2021 73.92 46.1

2022 78.6 44.8

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 16

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Table 4(a) shows the data used in the study for 10 years from 2013-2022. It also shows the Annual
Exchange rates of India in Rupees for the same time period and Exports of Metals from India whose value
is denoted in American Dollars (USD) in Billions. In the table a clear trend cannot be seen between the
Annual Exchange Rates (independent variable) and the Exports of metals (dependent variable), as the
exchange rate (independent variable) increases, the exports of Metals (dependent variable) rise unevenly
throughout the 10-year period. This hints towards an existence of a moderate correlation between the two
variables.

Graph 4: Annual Exchange Rates (Blue) and Exports of Metals in USD Billions

Through Graph 4 where the annual exchange rates and exports of metals are shown in the form of a line
graph, we can see a clear trend between the two variables where, as the annual exchange rates rise, the
exports of Metals unevenly climb in value from the year 2013 - 2022. With this it can be assumed that a
moderate correlation exists between Annual exchange rates and the exports of said metal products. The
correlation will be estimated by using the Correlation by Pearson and if the significant value is less than
0.05, the correlation is said to be significant and will be accepted.

Table 4(b): Correlation between Exchange rates & Exports of Metal

In the Correlation (Pearson) analysis Table 4(b) Correlation between Exchange Rates and Exports of Metal
Products, the estimated significant value is 0.038. In order to have a significant correlation, the significant
value must be less than 0.05 (Sig. <0.05) and since the significant value for the performed analysis is 0.038
which is less than 0.05 (Sig. 0.038 < 0.05), the null hypothesis is rejected and the relationship between
Annual exchange rates and Exports of Metal products has significant correlation. The correlation is
considered to be negative if the value is or close -1 and is considered to be positive if the value is or close

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 17

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

to +1. Here the Pearson Correlation value for Metal Products is 0.661, hence there is a moderately positive
relationship between the Annual exchange rates and Metal Product exports i.e. an increase in exchange
rates results in the increase in exports of Metal products.

Table 4(c): ANOVA for Regression analysis

To estimate the strength of the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Metal products,
Linear Regression analysis is performed. Through ANOVA in Table 4(c) we can estimate the significant
value for the two variables i.e. Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Metal Products. There is a significant
impact of one variable on the other if the significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). Here the
significant value is 0.038 which is less than the maximum amount of 0.05 (Sig 0.00 < 0.05). Hence the
null hypothesis is rejected and it can be assumed that there is a significant impact of the Annual Exchange
Rates (independent variable) on Exports of Metal Products (Dependent Variable).

Table 4(d): Regression Analysis between Exchange rates & Exports of Metals

Through the Regression analysis shown in Table 4(d), the estimated R value is 0.661 which indicates a
positive correlation i.e. a rise in Annual Exchange rate (independent variable) also results in an even rise
in the Exports of Metal Products (dependent variable). R-Square is used to estimate the proportion of
variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Metal Products) which is caused by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange rates). Here the R-Square value is 0.436 i.e. 43.6% which indicates that 43.6%
of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Metal Products) can be explained by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange Rates).

3.5. Data Analysis of Machines

Exports of Machines include Broadcasting Equipment, Electrical transformers, Gas Turbines,
Transmissions, Valves, Insulated Wire, Engine Parts, Combustion Engines, Other Engines, Liquid Pumps,

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 18

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Air Pumps, Excavation Machinery, Electric Motor Parts, Centrifuges, Large Construction Vehicles,
Electric Batteries, Electric Motors, ball Bearings etcxxiii.
Table 5(a): Years, Exchange rates xxiv(The World Bank) & Exports of Machines xxv(The
Observatory of Economic Complexity)
Year Exchange Rates in Rupees Machines in USD Billions

2013 58.6 26.2

2014 61.03 25.4

2015 64.15 24.1

2016 67.2 24.8

2017 65.12 28

2018 68.39 34.3

2019 70.42 38

2020 74.1 33.3

2021 73.92 45.1

2022 78.6 56.9

Table 5(a) shows the data used in the study for 10 years from 2013-2022. It also shows the Annual
Exchange rates of India in Rupees for the same time period and Exports of Machines from India whose
value is denoted in American Dollars (USD) in Billions. In the table a clear trend cannot be seen between
the Annual Exchange Rates (independent variable) and the Exports of Machines (dependent variable), as
the exchange rate (independent variable) increases, the exports of Metals (dependent variable) rise
unevenly throughout the 10-year period. This hints towards an existence of a moderate correlation between
the two variables.

Graph 5: Annual Exchange Rates (Blue) and Exports of Machines in USD Billions

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 19

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Through Graph 5 where the annual exchange rates and exports of machines are shown in the form of a
line graph, we can see a clear trend between the two variables where, as the annual exchange rates rise,
the exports of machines unevenly climb in value from the year 2013 - 2022. With this it can be assumed
that a moderate correlation exists between Annual exchange rates and the exports of said machines. The
correlation will be estimated by using the Correlation by Pearson and if the significant value is less than
0.05, the correlation is said to be significant and will be accepted.

Table 5(b): Correlation between Exchange rates & Exports of Machines

In the Correlation (Pearson) analysis Table 5(b) Correlation between Exchange Rates and Exports of
Machines, the estimated significant value is 0.002. In order to have a significant correlation, the significant
value must be less than 0.05 (Sig. <0.05) and since the significant value for the performed analysis is 0.002
which is less than 0.05 (Sig. 0.002 < 0.05), the null hypothesis is rejected and there is a significant
correlation relationship between Annual exchange rates and Exports of Machines. The correlation is
considered to be negative if the value is or close -1 and is considered to be positive if the value is or close
to +1. Here the Pearson Correlation value for Machines is 0.855, hence there is a moderately positive
relationship between the Annual exchange rates and Machine exports i.e. an increase in exchange rates
results in the increase in exports of machine products.

Table 5(c): ANOVA for Regression analysis

To estimate the strength of the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Machines,
Linear Regression analysis is performed. Through ANOVA in Table 5(c) we can estimate the significant
value for the two variables i.e. Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Machines. There is a significant
impact of one variable on the other if the significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). Here the

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 20

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

significant value is 0.002 which is less than the maximum amount of 0.05 (Sig 0.00 < 0.05) Hence the null
hypothesis is rejected and it can be assumed that there is a significant impact of the Annual Exchange
Rates (independent variable) on Exports of Machines (Dependent Variable).

Table 5(d): Regression Analysis between Exchange rates & Exports of Machines

Through the Regression analysis shown in Table 5(d), the estimated R value is 0.855 which indicates a
positive correlation i.e. a rise in Annual Exchange rate (independent variable) also results in an even rise
in the Exports of Machines (dependent variable). R-Square is used to estimate the proportion of variance
in the dependent variable (Exports of Machines) which is caused by the independent variable (Annual
Exchange rates). Here the R-Square value is 0.731 i.e. 73.1% which indicates that 73.1% of the variance
in the dependent variable (Exports of Machines) can be explained by the independent variable (Annual
Exchange Rates).

4. Findings of the Study

In the following study, correlation and regression analyses have been used to estimate the relationship
between and estimate the variance of the dependent variable that is caused by the changes in dependent
variable. In the study, Annual Exchange Rates of India in Rupees are the independent variable and the
dependent variables are Exports of Chemical Products in US Dollars in Billions, Exports of Mineral
Products in US Dollars in Billions, Exports of Precious Metals in US Dollars in Billions, Exports of Metals
in US Dollars in Billions and Exports of Machines in US Dollars in Billions.
4.1. Findings regarding the relationship between Exchange Rates and Exports of Chemical
Products:
From table 1(a) and Graph 1, a clear trend can be seen where, as the Annual Exchange rates (independent
variable) increased, there has been an even increase in the exports of Chemical products (dependent
variable) which indicates a positive correlation between both the variables. A Pearson Correlation analysis
has been performed and the relationship between the independent and dependent variables would be
considered to be significant if the calculated Significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig. < 0.05). In this case
from table 1(b) the calculated significant value obtained is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 (Calculated Sig.
0.00 < 0.05). Hence the null hypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that a significant relationship
exists between the Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Chemical Products. The correlation values range
from -1 to +1, either indicating a positive or a negative relationship. The Pearson Correlation value from
table 1(b) is 0.931 which is close to +1 hence the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports
of Chemical Products is highly positive i.e. an increase in the independent variable (exchange rates) results
in an equal amount of rise in the dependent variable (Exports of Chemical Products).

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 21

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Further, Linear Regression has been performed to estimate the variance in the dependent variable (Exports
of Chemical Products) that is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange rates). For
regression to be significant, the calculated significant value should be less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). From
table 1(c) we see that the significant value is 0.00 which is less than 0.05 (Sig 0.00 < 0.05). Hence the null
hypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that there is a significant regression between the Annual
Exchange rates and Exports of Chemical Products. From Table 1(d), the Adjusted R-Square value is 0.835
i.e. 83.5% which indicates that 83.5% of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Chemical
Products) is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates).
4.2. Findings regarding the relationship between Exchange Rates and Exports of Mineral Products:
From table 2(a) and Graph 2, a trend cannot be seen between the Annual Exchange Rates (independent
variable) and Exports of Mineral Products (dependent variable) which indicates a low or no correlation
between Independent Variable (Annual Exchange Rates) and the dependent variable (Exports of Mineral
Products). A Pearson Correlation analysis has been performed and the relationship would be considered
to be significant if the Significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig. < 0.05). In this case from table 2(b) the
calculated significant value is 0.570 which is greater than 0.05 (Calculated Sig. 0.570 > 0.05). Hence the
null hypothesis is accepted and it can be concluded that a significant relationship does not exist between
the Annual Exchange rates (independent variable) and Mineral Products (dependent variable). The
correlation values range from -1 to +1, either indicating a positive or a negative relationship. The Pearson
Correlation value from table 2(b) is 0.205 which is positive. Hence the relationship between Annual
Exchange rates and Exports of Mineral Products is very insignificant. i.e. an increase in the independent
variable (exchange rates) does not result in an equal amount of rise in the dependent variable (Exports of
Mineral Products).
Further, Linear Regression has been performed to estimate the variance in the dependent variable (Exports
of Mineral Products) that is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates). For
regression to be significant, the calculated significant value should be less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). From
table 2(c) we see that the significant value is 0.570 which is greater than 0.05 (Sig 0.570 > 0.05). Hence
the null hypothesis is accepted and it can be concluded that there is no significant regression between the
Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Mineral Products. From Table 2(d), the Adjusted R-Square value
is 0.042 i.e. 4.2% which indicates that 4.2% of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Mineral
Products) is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates) which is extremely low
regression.
4.3. Findings regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Precious Metals:
From table 3(a) and Graph 3, a trend cannot be seen between the Annual Exchange Rates (independent
variable) and Exports of Precious Metals (dependent variable) which indicates a low or no correlation
between Independent Variable (Annual Exchange Rates) and the dependent variable (Exports of Precious
Metals). Further, a Pearson Correlation analysis has been performed and the relationship would be
considered to be significant if the Significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig. < 0.05). In this case from table
3(b) the calculated significant value is 0.395 which is greater than 0.05 (Calculated Sig. 0.395 > 0.05).
Hence the null hypothesis is accepted and it can be concluded that a significant relationship does not exist
between the two variables which are the Annual Exchange Rates and Exports of Precious metals. The
correlation values range from -1 to +1, either indicating a positive or a negative relationship. The Pearson
Correlation value from table 3(b) is -0.303 which is negative. Hence the relationship between Annual
Exchange rates and Exports of Precious Metals is negative and very insignificant.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 22

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Further, Linear Regression has been performed to estimate the variance in the dependent variable (exports
of Precious Metals) that is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates). For regression
to be significant, the calculated significant value should be less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). From table 3(c) we
see that the significant value is 0.395 which is greater than 0.05 (Sig 0.395 > 0.05). Hence the null
hypothesis is accepted and it can be concluded that there is no significant regression between the two
variables. From Table 3(d), the Adjusted R-Square value is 0.092 i.e. 9.2% which indicates that 9.2% of
the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Precious Metals) is explained by the independent
variable (Annual Exchange Rates) which is extremely low regression.
4.4. Findings regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Metals:
From table 4(a) and Graph 4, a clear trend cannot be seen. However, as the Annual Exchange rates
(independent variable) increased, there has been an uneven positive increase in the exports of Chemical
products (dependent variable) which indicates a moderately positive correlation between both the
variables. A Pearson Correlation analysis has been performed and the relationship between the
independent and dependent variables would be considered to be significant if the calculated Significant
value is less than 0.05 (Sig. < 0.05). In this case from table 4(b) the calculated significant value obtained
is 0.038 which is less than 0.05 (Calculated Sig. 0.00 < 0.05). Hence the null hypothesis is rejected and it
can be concluded that a significant relationship exists between the Annual Exchange rates and Exports of
Metal Products. The correlation values range from -1 to +1, either indicating a positive or a negative
relationship. The Pearson Correlation value from table 4(b) is 0.661 which is between 0 and +1 hence the
relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Metal Products is moderately positive i.e. an
increase in the independent variable (exchange rates) results in an unequal amount of rise in the dependent
variable (Exports of Chemical Products).
Further, Linear Regression has been performed to estimate the variance in the dependent variable (Exports
of Chemical Products) that is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange rates). For
regression to be significant, the calculated significant value should be less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). From
table 4(c) we see that the significant value is 0.038 which is less than 0.05 (Sig 0.038 < 0.05). Hence the
null hypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that there is a significant regression between the Annual
Exchange rates and Exports of Metal Products. From Table 4(d), the Adjusted R-Square value is 0.436
i.e. 43.6% which indicates that 43.6% of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Metal
Products) is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates).
4.5. Findings regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Machines:
From table 5(a) and Graph 5, a clear trend can be seen where, as the Annual Exchange rates (independent
variable) increased, there has been an even increase in the exports of Machines (dependent variable) which
indicates a positive correlation between both the variables. A Pearson Correlation analysis has been
performed and the relationship between the independent and dependent variables would be considered to
be significant if the calculated Significant value is less than 0.05 (Sig. < 0.05). In this case from table 5(b)
the calculated significant value obtained is 0.002 which is less than 0.05 (Calculated Sig. 0.002 < 0.05).
Hence the null hypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that a significant relationship exists between
the Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Machines. The correlation values range from -1 to +1, either
indicating a positive or a negative relationship. The Pearson Correlation value from table 5(b) is 0.855
which is close to +1 hence the relationship between Annual Exchange rates and Exports of Machines is
highly positive i.e. an increase in the independent variable (exchange rates) results in an equal amount of
rise in the dependent variable (Exports of Machines).

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 23

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Further, Linear Regression has been performed to estimate the variance in the dependent variable (Exports
of Machines) that is explained by the independent variable (Annual Exchange rates). For regression to be
significant, the calculated significant value should be less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05). From table 5(c) we see
that the significant value is 0.002 which is less than 0.05 (Sig 0.002 < 0.05). Hence the null hypothesis is
rejected and it can be concluded that there is a significant regression between the Annual Exchange rates
and Exports of Machines. From Table 5(d), the Adjusted R-Square value is 0.731 i.e. 73.1% which
indicates that 73.1% of the variance in the dependent variable (Exports of Machines) is explained by the
independent variable (Annual Exchange Rates).
4.6. Conclusions Regarding Exchange Rate between Indian Rupee and US Dollar:
Graph 4 - Exchange Rate between Indian Rupee & US Dollar xxvi(2013-2022)

This study took into consideration the annual exchange rates from the time period of 2013 till 2022 i.e.
for 10 years. There has been a rise in the exchange rates and this is because of India's trade deficits, global
uncertainty which resulted in the increase in the demand for the dollar. The Indian Rupee had been trading
at ₹ 83 in September 2013 whereas in 2022 it traded at ₹ 89. Hence it can be assumed that the increase in
the exchange rate of the Indian Rupee in regards to the US Dollar is due to the increase in the demand and
strength of the US Dollar and not due to the weakening or depreciating of the Rupeexxvii.
4.7. Conclusions regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Chemical
Products:
Graph 5 - Exports of Chemical Products from India in USD Billions xxviii(2013-2022)

This study aimed at assessing the impact of change in Exchange Rates on Exports of a particular basket
of commodities. In this case, the dependent variable taken into consideration is Chemical Products which

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 24

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

include Packaged Medicaments, Nitrogen Heterocyclic Compounds, Pesticides, Cyclic Hydrocarbons,

Synthetic Colouring Matter, vaccines, Blood, Antisera and Toxins, Nucleic Acids, Oxygen Amino
Compounds, Antibiotics, Essential Oils, Cleaning Products, Beauty Products, Perfumes, Glues, Soap, Hair
Products, Shaving Products, Dyes, Enzymes, Waxes etc. By comparing Graph 4 and Graph 5, we see an
even rise in the export value of Chemical Products as the exchange rates rise. This indicates a correlation
existing between Annual Exchange rates (independent variable) and Exports of Chemical Products
(dependent variable). Through the study in Table 1(b) it has been demonstrated that there is a highly
positive correlation of 0.931 between the dependent variable (Exports of Chemical Products) and
independent variable (Exchange Rates). It has also been estimated through Table 1(d) that a variance
83.5% of variance in the Exports of Chemical Products (dependent variable) is explained by the Annual
Exchange Rate (independent variable). Hence it can be concluded that there is a significant impact of
Exchange rates (independent variable) on the Exports of Chemical Products.
4.8. Conclusions regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Mineral
Products:
Graph 6 - Exports of Mineral Products from India in USD Billions xxix(2013-2022)

This study aimed at assessing the impact of change in Exchange Rates on Exports of a particular basket
of commodities. In this case, the dependent variable taken into consideration is Mineral Products which
include Refined Petroleum, coal tar oil, Iron Ore, Granite, Electricity, Petroleum Gas, Sulphur, Salt, Coke,
Petroleum Coke, Barium Sulphate, Clays, Titanium Ore, Coal Briquettes, Cement, Petroleum Jelly, Quartz
etc. From Graph 4 and Graph 6, we can see that there is no trend between the Annual Exchange Rates
(independent variable) and Exports of Mineral Products (dependent variable) hence it is concluded that
there is limited or no correlation. From Table 2(b), the calculated Significant value is 0.570 which means
the null hypothesis is accepted and that there is no significant correlation and regression. The Pearson
Correlation value is 0.205 which is insignificant. The R-Square value is 0.042 which is 4.2%. Hence it can
be concluded that the regression is also insignificant.
Refined Petroleum and other Petroleum products form a major part of Mineral Product exports and there
have been other extraneous variables affecting the exports of such products. Such is the case post 2014,
where the exports of Petroleum had decreased due to variations in the global oil pricesxxx. During 2019-
2020, due to the pandemic, the global demand of petroleum and its associated products have decreased as
a cause of lockdowns which resulted in a fall in exports and post pandemic, the demand climbed back to
its normal rate. Due to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the demand for refined Petroleum and Petroleum

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 25

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Products rose again and during which India imported cheap crude oil from Russia, processed them into
Petroleum and other Petroleum based products which were exported to satisfy the global demand which
led to a rise in the Exports in 2022.
4.9. Conclusions regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Precious metals:
Graph 7 - Exports of Precious Metals from India in USD Billions (2013-2022)

This study aimed at assessing the impact of change in Exchange Rates on Exports of a particular basket
of commodities. In this case, the dependent variable taken into consideration is Precious Metals which
primarily include Diamonds and Jewellery, followed by Synthetic Reconstructed Jewellery Stones,
Precious Stones, Precious Metals Scams, Imitation Jewellery, Gold, Platinum, Pearl Products, Metal-Clad
Products, Precious Stone Dust, Silver etc. From Graph 4 and Graph 7, there is no emerging trend between
Annual Exchange rates (independent variable) and Exports of Precious Metals (dependent variable).
Hence it can be concluded that there is limited or no correlation between Annual Exchange Rates and
Exports of Precious Metals. From Table 3(b), the calculated significant value is 0.395 which means that
the null hypothesis is accepted and that there is no significant correlation and regression. The Pearson
Correlation is -0.303 with which it can be concluded that there is insignificant correlation between Annual
Exchange Rates and Exports of Precious Metals. The R-Square value is 0.092 which is 9.2%, hence it can
be concluded that there is insignificant regression between Annual Exchange Rates and Exports of
Precious Metals.
India’s exports of Precious metals consist primarily of Diamonds. This industry had a modest beginning
where after the 2000s, in Surat Gujarat, indigenous methods of cutting and polishing left-over diamonds.
Later the industry developed and exports grew as well. In 2016-17, India exported 90% of the world's Cut
and Polished Diamonds and 75% of the world's polished diamonds. Due to the high supply from India and
lack of any other alternative competitors, India’s exports of Diamonds have always been high, stable, and
forms a significant proportion of the nation’s exports. The export value due to these circumstances depends
on the demand of that product which had significantly fallen during the pandemic, hence a fall in the
exports of these products fell during the same time. These circumstances of a near monopoly also makes
changes in exchange rates ineffective in changing the value or volume of exports of Diamonds and in
extension the Exports of Precious Metals.

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 26

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

4.10. Conclusions regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Metals:
Graph 8 - Exports of Metals from India in USD Billions xxxi(2013-2022)

This study aimed at assessing the impact of change in Exchange Rates on Exports of a particular basket
of commodities. In this case, the dependent variable taken into consideration is Metal Products which
include Raw Aluminium, Ferroalloys, Hot Rolled Iron, Iron Structures, Raw Zinc, Semi Finished Iron,
Other Iron Products, Iron Pipes, Iron Housewares, Raw Lead, Refined Copper, Other Stainless-Steel Bars,
Iron Pipe Fittings, Aluminium Foil, Other Aluminium Products etc. By comparing Graph 4 and Graph 8,
we see an even rise in the export value of Metal Products as the exchange rates rise unevenly. This
indicates a moderate correlation existing between Annual Exchange rates (independent variable) and
Exports of Metal Products (dependent variable). Through the study in Table 4(b) it has been demonstrated
that there is a moderately positive correlation of 0.661 between the dependent variable (Exports of Metal
Products) and independent variable (Exchange Rates). It has also been estimated through Table 4(d) that
a variance 43.6% of variance in the Exports of Metal Products (dependent variable) is explained by the
Annual Exchange Rate (independent variable). Hence it can be concluded that there is an insignificant
impact of Exchange rates (independent variable) on the Exports of Metal Products.
4.11. Conclusions regarding the relationship between Exchange rates and Exports of Machines:
Graph 9 - Exports of Machines from India in USD Billions xxxii(2013-2022)

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 27

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

This study aimed at assessing the impact of change in Exchange Rates on Exports of a particular basket
of commodities. In this case, the dependent variable taken into consideration is Machines which include
Broadcasting Equipment, Electrical transformers, Gas Turbines, Transmissions, Valves, Insulated Wire,
Engine Parts, Combustion Engines, Other Engines, Liquid Pumps, Air Pumps, Excavation Machinery,
Electric Motor Parts, Centrifuges, Large Construction Vehicles, Electric Batteries, Electric Motors, Ball
Bearings etc. By comparing Graph 4 and Graph 9, we see an even rise in the export value of Machines as
the exchange rates rise. This indicates a correlation existing between Annual Exchange rates (independent
variable) and Exports of Machines (dependent variable). Through the study in Table 5(b) it has been
demonstrated that there is a highly positive correlation of 0.855 between the dependent variable (Exports
of Machines) and independent variable (Exchange Rates). It has also been estimated through Table 5(d)
that a variance of 73.1% of variance in the Exports of Machines (dependent variable) is explained by the
Annual Exchange Rate (independent variable). Hence it can be concluded that there is a significant impact
of Exchange rates (independent variable) on the Exports of Machines.

5. Bibliography
● Annual Exchange Rates/ Exchange Rates: According to the International Monetary Fund and
International Financial Statistics, on The Word Bank website, the Annual Exchange Rates are the rates
determined by the national authorities or legally authorised exchange markets. The calculation is done
as annual averages which are calculated from the monthly averages of the local currency in units
relative to the US Dollarxxxiii.
● Currency Peg: Currency Peg is a system where the government or a monetary authority of a nation
fixes a specific exchange rate of the home currency with a foreign currency. The various types of
Currency pegs are Hard peg, Soft peg, Crawling Peg and Basket peg.
● Chemical Products: According to The Observatory of Economic Complexity Chemical Products are
a basket of commodities which include Packaged Medicaments, Nitrogen Heterocyclic Compounds,
Pesticides, Cyclic Hydrocarbons, Synthetic Colouring Matter, vaccines, Blood, Antisera and Toxins,
Nucleic Acids, Oxygen Amino Compounds, Antibiotics, Essential Oils, Cleaning Products, Beauty
Products, Perfumes, Glues, Soap, Hair Products, Shaving Products, Dyes, Enzymes, Waxes etcxxxiv.
● Mineral Products: According to The Observatory of Economic Complexity Mineral Products are a
basket of commodities which include Refined Petroleum, coal tar oil, Iron Ore, Granite, Electricity,
Petroleum Gas, Sulphur, Salt, Coke, Petroleum Coke, Barium Sulphate, Clays, Titanium Ore, Coal
Briquettes, Cement, Petroleum Jelly, Quartz etcxxxv.
● Precious Metals: According to The Observatory of Economic Complexity Precious Metals are a
basket of commodities which primarily include Diamonds and Jewellery, followed by Synthetic
Reconstructed Jewellery Stones, Precious Stones, Precious Metals Scraps, Imitation Jewellery, Gold,
Platinum, Pearl Products, Metal-Clad Products, Precious Stone Dust, Silver etcxxxvi.
● Metals: According to The Observatory of Economic Complexity Metals are a basket of commodities
which primarily include Raw Aluminium, Ferroalloys, Hot Rolled Iron, Iron Structures, Raw Zinc,
Semi Finished Iron, Other Iron Products, Iron Pipes, Iron Housewares, Raw Lead, Refined Copper,
Other Stainless-Steel Bars, Iron Pipe Fittings, Aluminium Foil, Other Aluminium Products etcxxxvii.
● Machines: According to The Observatory of Economic Complexity Machines are a basket of
commodities which primarily include Broadcasting Equipment, Electrical transformers, Gas Turbines,
Transmissions, Valves, Insulated Wire, Engine Parts, Combustion Engines, Other Engines, Liquid

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 28

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

Pumps, Air Pumps, Excavation Machinery, Electric Motor Parts, Centrifuges, Large Construction
Vehicles, Electric Batteries, Electric Motors, Ball Bearings etcxxxviii.
● Exports: Exports refers to the commodity or a service that is produced in the home country that is
sold to a buyer abroad or in a foreign country.
● Net Exports: The net exports refer to the value of exports which is obtained by subtracting the Total
Exports less Total Imports (𝚺 Exports - 𝚺 Imports).
● Significant Value: Significant value or p value is the probability that the result occurred by chance.
This value is compared with a predetermined cutoff to determine whether a test is statistically
significant. For this particular study the Significant value should be less than 0.05 (Sig < 0.05)xxxix.
● Correlation: Correlation analysis calculates the variance in one variable that is caused by a change in
another variable. It is a statistical method used to measure the linear relationship between two variables
and compute their association. The correlation value ranges from -1 to +1. -1 being extremely negative
correlation between the two variables where an increase in one variable results in an equal but opposite
change in another variable and +1 refers to extremely positive correlation between two variables where
an increase in one variable results an equal amount of change in another variable in the same
directionxl.
● Regression: Regression is a statistical method that allows one to calculate the impact and examine the
relationship between two or more variables. They are used to examine the impact or influence of one
or more independent variables on the dependent variable. The R-Square value obtained from the
Regression Analysis is used to estimate the impact of the independent variable on the dependent
variable and the ideal R-Square value is 0.7 i.e. 70%xli.

6. References:

1. Ministry of Commerce & Industry (India), https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1916220

2. Ministry of Commerce & Industry (India),
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2014929
3. Evolution of Exchange Management in India, Unacademy,
https://unacademy.com/content/upsc/study-material/economy/evolution-of-exchange-management-
in-india/
4. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
5. Ms. Mohini Gupta, India’s Foreign trade Pre-Independence, Post-Independence & Recent Trends,
https://e-sarthi.lpcps.org.in/uploads/Notes/3/24/173/Unit%20II/UNIT_21.pdf
6. Manoj Kumar Sinha, Structural Change in Composition of India’s Export during Post-Economic
reform Period,
https://srcc.edu/sites/default/files/Article%207.%20Composition%20of%20India%20Export.pdf
7. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
8. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 29

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

9. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
10. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
11. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
12. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
13. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
14. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
15. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
16. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
17. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
18. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
19. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
20. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
21. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
22. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
23. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
24. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 30

 International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: www.ijfmr.com ● Email: [email protected]

25. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
26. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
27. Abhishek Banerjee & Karuna Gopal, How Indian Rupee has been Stable in Last 10 Years Compared
to Currencies Around the World, https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/how-indian-rupee-has-been-
stable-in-last-10-years-compared-to-currencies-around-the-world-13122122.html
28. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
29. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
30. Muhammad Azhar, India’s Emergence as a Petroleum Products Exporter, The Journal of energy and
Development, International Research Center for energy and Economic Development,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/27188914?read-
now=1&oauth_data=eyJlbWFpbCI6InNhaXZhaWJoYXYuZ3NAZ21haWwuY29tIiwiaW5zdGl0dX
Rpb25JZHMiOltdLCJwcm92aWRlciI6Imdvb2dsZSJ9&seq=23#page_scan_tab_content
31. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
32. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
33. Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) – India, International Monetary Fund,
International Financial Statistics,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?end=2022&locations=IN&start=1960&view=c
hart&year=2022
34. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
35. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
36. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
37. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
38. Historical Data of Exports of India, The Observatory of Economic Complexity,
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
39. Significant Value, https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/cognos-analytics/11.1.0?topic=terms-significance-
value
40. Correlation, Statistics Knowledge Portal, https://www.jmp.com/en_au/statistics-knowledge-
portal/what-is-correlation.html
41. Brian Beers, Regression: Definition, Analysis, Calculation & Example,
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regression.asp

IJFMR240320546 Volume 6, Issue 3, May-June 2024 31