STA 2202: Demography Credits: 3

(Examination 70, Continuous Assessment 30)

Number of Lecturers - Minimum 39(hours)
Duration of Examination: 3 hours
5 questions to be answered from 8

Aim of this course

 This course provides basic concept of demography thescientific study of population. It
introduces the basic techniques of demographic analysis.
 This course focuses on understanding measures of the core demographic variables (e.g.,
fertility, mortality, migration), and how these variables influence population growth,
composition, and structure.

Objective of this course

The course is designed in such a way that it helps students understand the preliminaries of
demography and perform basic demographic analyses. It helps learners know about demographic
rates and ratios and population composition and change measures. Learning this course, students
will become familiar with measures of fertility, mortality, marriage and migration, construction
of life table, standardization and population projection techniques. They will also become
familiar with the relationship between population and economic issues.

Learning outcomes of this course

After completion of this course successfully, the learners/students would be able to
 define and differentiate the demographic concepts, terminology and formulas.
 identify and compare the advantages and disadvantages of the different sources and data
collection methods for demographic data.
 perform basic demographic analyses using various techniques and tools and interpret the
results
 discuss the key assumptions underlying techniques and tools.
 describe basic demographic indicators and elaborate on their computation and
interpretation.
 introduce calculations of demographic rates and ratios and analysis of measures of
population change.
 analyze the population composition and describe the distribution of a population using
various demographic characteristics.

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  construct and interpret various graphs and diagrams such as Lexis diagram and population
pyramid.
 compute various measures of fertility, mortality, marriage and migration,
 perform direct and indirect methods of standardization.
 construct and analyze simple and abridged life-tables.
 project a population using appropriate equations and assumptions.

Contents
Demography: Definition, nature and scope of demography, demography and population studies,
sources of demographic data: vital registration, survey and census.

Demographic measures: Rates, ratios and proportions, concept of population change,

population growth, measurement of population growth.

Measurement of Age: Age-sex composition, population pyramid, cohort ad Lexis diagram,

causes of errors in age data and their detection, adjustment.
Sources and types of errors in demographic data, dual record system, Chandara Sekhar Deming
formula.

Fertility and reproduction: Concept of fertility, reproduction, fecundity, fecundability, sterility,

measurements of fertility and reproduction, fertility trends and differentials.

Mortality: Concepts of mortality and morbidity, measures of mortality, trends of mortality and
differentials, measures of morbidity, standardization of demographic measures (direct and
indirect standardization).

Life table: Definition, use and functions of life tables, construction of life tables, actuarial life
table.

Nuptiality and its measures: Concept of marriage, divorce, separation, estimation of mean
and median age at marriage, estimation of singulate mean age at marriage, nuptiality table.

Migration: Definition, types of migration, effect of migration, various measures of migration.

Population projections: Definition, importance, various methods of projection, application and

use of different methods of projections with special reference to Bangladesh.

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Economic Activity and Labour Force: Definitions, major sources of labour force data, growth
of labour force, levels and patterns of participation in labour force, factors affecting labour force
participation, labour force structure by industry, occupation, and employment status, trends
regional variations, effects of demographic factors and economic development, dynamics of
labour force- working life tables.

Texts
1. Islam M. N (2015): An Introduction to Demographic Techniques, Mullick and Brothers,
Dhaka.
2. Jacob S. Siegel and David A. Swanson: The Methods And Materials of Demography, 2nd
edition, Elsevier Academic Press

References
1. Andrew Hinde (1998): demographic Methods (Hodder Arnold Publication)
2. Nathan Keyfitz and Hal Caswell (2005) Applied Mathematical Demography, 3rd edition,
Springeer
3. John R. Weeks (2008), population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, 10th edition,
Thomas Wadsworth
4. Samuel H. Patrick Heuveline, Michel Guillot (2000) Demography: Measuring and
Modeling Population Processes, Blackwell Publishers
5. Barcley, G. W. (1958): Techniques of population analysis, John Wiley and sons, New York.
6. Kpedekpo, G. M. K. (1982): Essentials of demographic analysis for Africa.
7. Chiang, C. L. (1984): The life table and its applications, Krueger Pule, John Wiley, New
York.
8. United Nations: Manuals I to XI.
9. Pollard, A. H., Farhat, Y. and Pollard, G. N. (1991): Demographic technique, 3rd edition,
Sydney Pergamon Press.
10. Biswas S. (1988): Stochastic process in demography and application, Wiley Eastern Ltd.

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What is demography?
The term demography is a combination of two Greek words demos which means ‘people’ and
graphien which means ‘to describe’. The literal meaning of the term demography thus stands as
‘description of the people’ implying that demography is concerned with the description, analysis
and understanding of the population dynamics.

The term demography has been ascribed to a Belgian statistician, Achille Guillard, who coined it
in 1855. However, the origins of modern demography are usually traced back to John Graunt’s
quantitative analyses of the “Bills of Mortality” published in 1662 (Graunt, J., 1964).

The term demography has variously been used in several disciplines and defined in many ways.

Demography has been described as the "quantitative study of human populations" (Ross 1982).
In this sense, the main concerns of demographers are the size and structure of human populations
and the changes to the size and structure caused by vital events – namely births, deaths and
migration.

According to (Swanson and Siegel, 2004), demography is the scientific study of human
population, including its size, distribution, composition, and the factors that determine changes
in its size, distribution, and composition.

From this definition we can say that demography focuses on five aspects of human population:
(1) size, (2) distribution, (3) composition, (4) population dynamics, and (5) socioeconomic
determinants and consequences of population change.

(1) Size: Population size is simply the number of persons in a given area at a given time.

(2) Distribution: Population distribution refers to the way the population is dispersed in
geographic space at a given time.

(3) Population composition: Population composition refers to the numbers of person in sex, age,
and other “demographic” categories.

All demographers would agree that age, sex, race, year of birth, and place of birth are
demographic characteristics. These are all characteristics that do not essentially change in the

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lifetime of the individual, or change in a perfectly predictable way. They are so-called ascribed
characteristics.

Many other characteristics also are recognized as within the purview of the demographer. These
fall into a long list of social and economic characteristics, including nativity, ethnicity, ancestry,
religion, citizenship, marital status, household characteristics, living arrangements, educational
level, school enrollment, labor force status, income, and wealth. Most of these characteristics can
change in the lifetime of the individual. They are so-called achieved characteristics.

(4) Population dynamics: Population dynamics is the study of how and why populations change
in size and structure over time.
Generally, the components of population change are births, deaths, and migration. Therefore
these factors are sometimes called vital process or vital events. In a more inclusive definition,
we add marriage and divorce as processes affecting births, household formation, and household
dissolution. Hence birth, deaths, migration and marriage (in wide sense) referred to as vital
events that play important roles in demographic analysis of human population.

(5) Socioeconomic determinants: Beyond these demographic factors of change, there are a host
of social and economic characteristics, such as those listed here (nativity, ethnicity, ancestry,
religion, citizenship, marital status, household characteristics, living arrangements, educational
level, school enrollment, labor force status, income, and wealth.), that represent causes and
consequences of change in the basic demographic characteristics and the basic components of
change.

As regards to a precise and complete definition of the word ‘demography’ the economist,
statisticians, geographers, social scientist, anthropologists and others have defined it in their own
way so as to reflect the inherent meaning and scope of the subject of demography. Obviously,
some definitions have adopted a narrow outlook on the subject while some have made its scope
very wide. Some definitions are as follow:

Demography is a function of fertility, mortality and migration.

-Gywalli, Damother
The study of the size, composition and the distribution of population is demography.
-Thomson and Lewis
Demography is the numerical analysis of the state and movement of human population inclusive
of census enumerations and registration of vital processes and whatever qualitative analysis can

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be made of the state and the movement of population on the basis of fundamental census and
registration data.
-Von Mayor
The mathematical, scientific and statistical study of the size, composition and spatial distribution
of the population through the operation of five processes of fertility, mortality, marriage,
migration and social mobility its long run goal is to develop theories to explain the events that is
charts and compare.
-Donald J. Bogue
Demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population
changes therein and the components of such changes, which may be identified as natality,
mortality, territorial movement and social mobility.
-Hauser and Duncan
Scientific study of human population primary with their size, their structure and their
development is demography.
-The Multilingual Dictionary
Demography does not deal with the behavior of individual but only with the aggregates of people
or even part therefore the numerical of human population is known as demography.
-W.G. Barckly

Critically appraising others’ definitions, we may put forward the following definition of
demography.

Definition: Demography is the scientific study of human population with respect to the size,
structure, development and distribution of population and spatial and/or temporal changes in
them overtime in response to birth, death, migration and social mobility.

Quantitative and qualitative aspects of demography

As evident from different definitions of demography the term demography deals with the study
and analysis of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of human population. Quantitative
aspects include, among others, composition, density, distribution, movement, size and structure
of the population. Qualitative aspects are largely the sociological factors such as, education,
quality of life, social behavior, crime, development, diet and nutrition, social class, wealth and
wellbeing of human population.

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Scope of demography
Scope of demography can be described in three views.

Wider view: Along with study of birth, death, marriage, migration, many other related subjects
and issues can also be studied such as causes of slow or rapid growth of birth rate, economic
problems, cultural or political phenomena etc.

According to this view it includes the subject matter of demography, is it a micro or macro
study? Whether it is a science or art? We discuss them as under:

1. Subject Matter of Demography:

 Size and shape of population
 Aspects Related to Birth Rate and Death Rate
 Composition and Density of population
 Quantitative and Qualitative Aspects
 Socio economic problems
2. Distribution of Population:
 How people are distributed among and within continents, world regions and developed
and underdeveloped countries?
 How their numbers and proportions change?
 What political, social and economic causes bring changes in the distribution of
population?
 Within a country, it also includes the study of distribution of population in rural and
urban areas, working classes, business communities, etc.
3. Theoretical models
4. Practical Aspects
5. Population policy
6. Micro and macro study
7. Demography as a Science

Narrower view: It should be restricted to vital events and demographic phenomena.

Balanced view: Balance of these two views: Along with vital events some other related issues
may be studied like education, health, social, economic conditions etc.

Nature of Demography

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Explaining the scientific nature of demography, Irene Taeuber has pointed out, “With improved
data, new techniques and the precise measurement of the demographic transition that is
occurring, demography has become science rather than literature”. This was also emphasized
by John V. Grauman when he said, “Demography is both an abstract science and applied
technology.” Demography today uses scientific methods, the most important of which is
analysis. In particular, nature of demography is mainly characterized by the knowledge of
statistics and mathematics. They form the basis of studying demography. Besides, knowledge of
some other fields is sometimes essential for it. As S.N, Agarwala said, “Demography deals with
population dynamics and composition, which covers a wider area……We are shifting from
demography to population studies.”

Importance of Demography
With the help of studying population problems one would come to know about the extent of
increase in population and also about the responsibility of the state and citizens and also policy
making of the state in respect of social, economic and political problems of people as well as the
state and their solutions as well.

With the majority of developing countries facing population explosion, the study of population
and its problems has become very important in every sphere of an economy. We discuss them
below.

(1) For the Economy

The study of demography is of immense importance to an economy. Population studies help us
to know how far the growth rate of the economy is keeping pace with the growth rate of
population. If population is increasing at a faster rate, the pace of development of the economy
will be slow. The government can undertake appropriate measures to control the growth of
population and to accelerate the development of the economy.
Rapid population growth reduces per capita income, lowers the standard of living, plunges the
economy into mass unemployment and under employment, brings environmental damage and
puts a burden on existing social infrastructure. Population studies highlight these problems of the
economy to be solved by the government.

(2) For Society

Population studies have much importance for the society. When population is increasing rapidly,
the society is faced with innumerable problems. Shortages of basic services like water,
electricity, transport and communications, public health, education, etc. arise.

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Along with these, problems of migration and urbanisation are associated with the growing
population which further lead to the law and order problem. Faced with such problems which are
the concomitant result of population growth, the state and non-government social organisations
can adopt appropriate measures to solve them.

(3) For Economic Planning:

Data relating to the present trend in population growth help the planners in formulating policies
for the economic plan of the country. They are kept in view while fixing targets of agricultural
and industrial products, of social and basic services like schools and other educational
institutions, hospitals, houses, electricity, transport, etc.
Population data are also used by the planners to project future trends in fertility and to formulate
policy measures to control the birth rate.
Based on population data, projections are made about the increase in labour force, and the
number of people in the age-groups 1-15 years, 15-50 years and above in order to estimate the
labour force available for productive employment. This, in turn, helps in making estimates
regarding employment to be generated during the plan period.

(4) For Administrators:

Population studies are also useful for administrators who run the government. In under-
developed countries, almost all social and economic problems are associated with the growth of
population. The administrator has to tackle and find solutions to the problems arising from the
growth of population. They are migration and urbanization which lead to pollution, drainage,
water, electricity, transport, etc. in cities.
These require improvement of environmental sanitation, removal of stagnant and polluted water,
slum clearance, better housing, efficient transport system, clean water supply, better sewerage
facilities, control of communicable diseases, provision of medical and health services, especially
in maternal and child welfare by opening health centres, opening of schools, etc.

(5) For Political System:

The knowledge of demography is of immense importance for a democratic political system. It is
on the basis of the census figures pertaining to different areas that the demarcation of
constituencies is done by the election commission of a country. The addition to the number of
voters after each election helps to find out how many have migrated from other places and
regions of the country.
Political parties are able to find out from the census data the number of male and female voters,
their level of education, their age structure, their level of earning, etc. On these basis, political
parties can raise issues and promise solutions in their election manifestos at the time of elections.

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Further, it is on the basis of male and female voters in an area that the election commission
establishes election booths for voters and appoints the election staff.

Relation of Demography to other subjects

However in practice demography is a largely interdisciplinary subject and the work of
demographers often overlaps with the following fields (among others):
 Sociology
 Epidemiology
 Economics
 Reproductive health
 History
 Anthropology
 Medical statistics
 Human ecology
 Social policy
Because of this overlap the distinction is often made between pure or formal demography which
deals mainly with the quantitative aspects of population, and population studies which draws a
wider frame of reference and seeks to shed light on the connections between the numerical
aspects of population and wider social, economic and cultural factors.

Typology of demography
Special terms have been used for certain aspect of demography. Most notable are formal
demography and population studies. Some other types are also discussed.

1. a) Formal demography
Formal demography also called theoretical or pure demography is concerned with size,
distribution, structure and change of population.
 Size is simply the number of persons in the population.
 Distribution refers to the placement of the population in space of a given time.
 Structure in its narrowest sense, is the distribution of the population among its sex and
age groups.
 Change is the growth, decline or constancy of the total population of a structural unit.

The formal demography limits its object of study to the measurement of population process (i.e.
birth, death, marriage, migration, age, sex etc.)

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1. b) Population studies
When we study demographic phenomena in an attempt to analyze the relationship between
economic, social, cultural and biological process influencing the population parameters, the term
population studies is used.

2. a) Micro demography
Bogue (1969) defines micro demography as the study of the growth, distribution and
redistribution of the population within community, or other local administrative units.

2. b) Macro demography
If the demographic study is undertaken for the country as a whole it refers to as macro
demography. It covers causes and consequences of demographic, measurements such as high
birth rate, population growth rate, sex ratio etc.
Numerous, economic, social, religious and other related issues are also contained in it like
employment, living standard, production, urbanization etc.

3. a) Descriptive demography
It provides only descriptive measure of demographic data.

3. b) Analytical demography
It deals with analytical techniques applied to demographic data.

3. c) Comparative demography
It provides comparative demographic study at different places and at two different points of time.

3. d) Historical demography
Demography under which time series rates (or other measures) are studied is called historical
demography.

4) Population dynamics
Population dynamics is the study of changes over time in the number, composition and
distribution of individuals in a population and the factors that govern these changes.

It contrasts with the use of the word demography simply that provides a static analysis referring
to a given point of time.
Sources of demographic data

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Following are the sources of democratic data.
1. Population census
2. Sample survey
3. Registration method
4. Cross-national data

Population census
United Nations defined census as a total process of collecting, compiling and publishing
demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time to all persons in a country
or delineated territory (UN, 1965).

Islam (2015) defined the term "census" as the process of collecting compiling and publishing
demographic, social and economic data about the population of a defined territory at a specified
time. It is the largest single data gathering exercise carried out in a country.

History of census
In ancient era there are some historical evidence of population counting or censuses among
Babylonians, Chinese, Egyptian, Greeks and Romans. Census taking began at least 5800 years
ago in Egypt, Babylonia, China, Palestine, and Rome (Halacy, 1980, p. 1). Few of the results
have survived, however. The counts of these early censuses were undertaken to determine fiscal
research. New items included on the census questionnaire reflected new problems confronting
state and society.

In modern era among others, Great Britain (1801) and USA (1790) adopted the practice of
population census. The first official census was in 1801, but the 1841 census, run by the new
registration service, is regarded as the first modern census. The census taken in 1841 is widely
regarded as the first truly modern census, when the first Registrar General of England and Wales,
John Lister, was made responsible for organizing the count. The task of counting was passed on
to local officers of the newly created registration service.

Importance of census
 The fundamental purpose of a census is to provide information on the size, distribution
and characteristics of the country's population.

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  Census data are used for policy making, planning, administration, management and
evaluation of programs in education, labor force, family planning, housing, health,
transportation, rural development etc.

 A basic administrative use is in the demarcation of constituencies and allocation of

representation of governing bodies.

 The census is also an invaluable resource for research since it provides data:
o for scientific analysis of the composition and distribution of the population and
o for fitting statistical models to forecast its future growth

 It also provides benchmark data which may be useful for other scientific studies,
analyses, interpretations etc.

Census techniques
In census, enumeration of persons may follow two different approaches namely De Facto and
De Jure methods.

1. De Facto Method: The person is counted at a place where he is found at the time (date) of
enumeration.
Under this method, the Census Commission fixes one date for conducting the census throughout
the country. It is usually done on a full moon night because it is presumed that all households are
present at their residences during that time. Then a de facto census allocates them to the place
where they spend the night of the day enumerated. It is also called date system or one night
enumeration system.

Thus, a de facto population enumeration is one which counts the usual household members and
visitors present who spent the census night at any given household . From this point of view a de
facto location is the place where the person slept during the night preceding enumeration.
This however exclude: foreign diplomats, nationals employed in diplomatic missions abroad
including their family members, migrant workers working abroad and students studying abroad.

Merits
 It is simple and clear.
 It is less time consuming because the entire enumeration work is done within a short
period of time (fixed date).

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  This is real enumeration because the households are actually present in their places of
residence.
 Even persons present at other places within the country are enumerated.

Demerits
 One of its main defects is that the data are to be collected within a short period of time.
 Another defect is that persons who are travelling during the census night in trains, buses
and aero planes cannot be enumerated.
 In this method, floating peoples are not counted.
 As the time period for enumeration is fixed for only one night, it requires large number of
trained enumerators who may not be available, especially in developing countries.
 Due to short time, it also needs a smaller number of questions without much variety of
information.
 As the data are to be collected within a short period of time, the census work may not be
completed and the staff may fill up the gaps of their own based on guess.

2. De Jure Method: The person is counted at the place of his real residence.
Under this method, the enumeration period of two or three weeks is fixed. The enumerators
collect information from households by visiting them very often to fill up the various schedules.
The enumerators count the household members residing permanently and usual household
members being absent temporarily at the time of the census. Persons residing temporarily at a
place are not enumerated. This method however, includes institutional populations in places such
as hospitals, prisons and academic institutions. This is also called real and direct enumeration
method of census.

Merits
 One of the advantages of this method is that the enumerators are given sufficient time to
collect information from the households even by making frequent visits to them if
needed.
 Due to adequate time, it is possible to collect a wide variety of information
 This method has less chance of inaccuracy due to adequate time.
 This method does not necessarily require well trained enumerators.

Demerits
 In this method, permanent residence, households etc. should be well defined.
 This method is difficult for those having no permanent residence. It is also difficult for
those having more than one residence.

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  Persons who are not residing permanently at a place at the time of enumeration are
usually left out.
 There may be a great possibility of omission due to lack of knowledge of birth, death,
migration etc. during period. For example, during the period of census, if the enumerator
has filled up the census schedule of a particular household on a specific date and a birth
or death takes place there, this will not be accounted for in the census. Similarly, the
family itself may migrate to some other town during this period.

Census operation in Bangladesh

In developing countries, the availability of data has improved greatly in recent decades. All
countries have expanded and strengthened the capabilities of their statistical offices, including
activities related to information on population. Most countries have started to take population
censuses, as well as housing, agricultural, and industrial censuses (U.S. Census Bureau/Arriaga
et al., 1994, p. 1).

The first population census in Bengal was undertaken along with other parts of India-
Bangladesh-Pakistan subcontinent under the British rule in 1872. After that, two censuses were
conducted in 1881 and 1891. But due to various reasons these censuses were not up to the mark.
According to demographers, the censuses of the first three decades of the 20th century (i.e. of
1901, 1911 and 1921) were fairly reliable.

The census of 1951, the first census for East Bengal (East Pakistan) suffered from weakness of a
different kind. After independence of Bangladesh, the first census of the country scheduled to be
held in 1971 was conducted in 1974 due to the war of liberation. The 1981 census was the
second census in the free soil of Bangladesh after the war of liberation in 1971. Following the
decennial tradition of conducting the population census the fifth census of Bangladesh was
conducted in 2011.

2. Sample survey
A sample survey is a survey which is carried out using a sampling method, i.e. in which a portion
only, and not the whole population is surveyed.

Sample surveys are important source of demographic data largely because of the problems
inherent in census and registration system where one encounters problems of asking many or
complex questions, and especially in developing countries where quality of data are rampant.

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Gaps in the data provided by census and vital registration system can be filled in by carrying out
special surveys to elicit the particular information required.

Demographic and health surveys in Bangladesh

Demographic data at the national level were lacking both in quality and coverage in Bangladesh.
In their absence demographers in the past have attempted to estimate birth and death rates in
most cases by indirect techniques employing inadequate information. As a result, these attempts
were of limited value in the absence of basic data.

To bridge the existing gap, a number of demographic surveys were conducted in Bangladesh
over the last 60 years. A few of them are as follows:
Demographic Survey in East Pakistan (DSEP): 1961-62
Population Growth Estimation (PGE): 1962-65
National Impact Survey (NIS) 1968-69
Population Growth Survey (PGS): 1968-70
Bangladesh Retrospective Survey of Fertility and Mortality (BRSFM): 1974
Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS): 1975 and 1989
Bangladesh Maternal Mortality and Health Care Survey (BMMHCS): 2001 and 2010.

In addition, there are some other demographic surveys in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh
Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) is the first of its kind in Bangladesh. It is part of the
worldwide Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) program which is designed to collect data on
fertility, mortality, family planning and maternal and child health.

Health and Demographic Survey (HDS) are conducted periodically by Bangladesh bureau of
statistics (BBS), a central government agency entrusted with the responsibility of providing
statistical data.

Another famous survey is known as Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The Multiple
Indicator Cluster Surveys are household surveys implemented by countries under the programme
developed by the United Nations Children's Fund to provide internationally comparable,
statistically rigorous data on the situation of children and women. The first round of surveys
(MICS1) was carried out in over 60 countries in mainly 1995 and 1996 in response to the World
Summit for Children and measurement of the mid-decade progress. The MICS is highly
comparable to the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the technical teams developing

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and supporting the surveys are in close collaboration. Since 1993, Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics (BBS) has been conducting the Multiple Indicator Cluster
Survey (MICS) jointly with UNICEF. In Bangladesh, the last Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
(MICS) was carried out in 2019 by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in collaboration with
UNICEF Bangladesh, as part of the Global MICS Programme.

3. Registration Method
Registration method refers to continuous, permanent, compulsory recording of the occurrence of
vital events together with certain identifying or descriptive characteristics concerning them, as
provided through the civil code, laws or regulations of each country. Registration method may be
obtained in three ways: a) Vital registration b) Population registers c) Other administrative
records.

a) Vital registration
Vital registration is the system by which a government records the vital events of its citizens and
residents. Vital registration creates legal documents which may be used to establish and protect
the civil rights of individuals, as well as providing a source of data which may be compiled to
give vital statistics.
In contrast to censuses, which collect information on every member of a population at a single
point in time, vital registration systems collect information on individuals as demographic events
occur. ‘Vital registration’ is also called ‘civil registration’, which is the preferred term of the UN.
Many vital registration systems record births, deaths, foetal deaths, marriages, divorces and
adoptions, as well as recording information on the individual who experiences the event, such as
age, religion, occupation etc. These data are then compiled into vital statistics bulletins.

Vital registration system in Bangladesh

The vital registration system in Bangladesh was undertaken on sample basis in 1980 . The main
objective of this system is to determine the annual population changes during the intercensal
periods. Initially its coverage was 103 Primary Sampling Units (PSU) each consisting of about
250 households. The coverage of the registration was further increased to 210 PSUs in 1983. The
number of sample PSUs was again raised to 500 in 1995. The scope of the survey was also
enhanced with the addition of a new module on contraceptive use.

With availability of the sampling frame from the 2001 census, the simple design was modified
introducing a Integrated Multi-Purpose Sample Design (IMPS) with effect from July 1, 2000,
when the number of PSUs was again increased to 1000 to provide the estimates of vital events at

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the district level. To provide better and reliable estimates of population changes and vital
statistics at the district level the number of PSUs was further increased to 1500 in 2013. After
that, Sample Vital Registration System is being conducted regularly. Sample Vital Registration
System (SVRS)-2019 was already published.
To obtain data from the field with extensive verification and to provide a better coverage of vital
events, Dual Record System was introduced from the beginning.

Matlab Surveillance System

Since 1963 the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B)
formerly Cholera Research Laboratory has implemented a health research program in Matlab.
Matlab is located about 55 km southeast of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. The Health
and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), formerly demographic surveillance system
(DSS) is one of the major components of this field program. Today the Matlab HDSS is
recognized worldwide by population experts and health scientists as one of the longest
continuing demographic surveillance sites in a developing country.

Since 1966, the HDSS has maintained the registration of births, deaths and migrations, in
addition to carrying out period periodical census. Registration of marital unions and dissolutions
began in 1975, internal movement in 1982, and household headship as well as household
dissolution in 1993. Later in 2001, the Record Keeping System (RKS) and Geographical
Information System (GIS) were integrated into HDSS.

b) Population registers
Population registers, also referred to as household registers, are longitudinal, nominative records
of the households and individuals that make up a community. They follow households through
time, recording changes in their composition and other characteristics.
Population registers of different countries collect different kind of information of population. In
European and developed countries many information of population are registered regularly. A
Population register is obviously one of the sources of demographic data.

c) Other administrative records

There may be some other administrative records such as electoral list, income tax list, list of
telephone and mobile subscribers etc. that may be used as secondary sources of demographic
data.

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4. Cross-national data
In addition to the sources mentioned above, there are several major sources of demographic data
which are periodically published cross-nationally for comparative purposes in the form of
summary indicators.

Demographic Year Book published almost annually by the United Nations includes demographic
data covering majority of the countries of the world. The major demographic information
included in this publication are among others population growth, birth rate, death rate migration
and population by urban rural breakdown.
Population Trends and Prospects is another publication of the United Nations published at an
interval of 5 years includes almost the same demographic information together with population
projections and life expectancy and some other key indicators.

The following table shows a list of major publications by type of publication and the name of
publisher.
Title Publisher
Demographic Year Book United Nations
Population Trends and Prospects United Nations
The Sex and Age Distribution of the World United Nations
Populations
World Health Statistics Annual World Health Organization
World Development Report World Bank
World Population Data Sheet Population Reference Bureau
Demographic Statistics Eurostat
Population Data Sheet ESCAP

Relative advantages and disadvantages of census and sample survey

Advantages of a census Disadvantages of a census
 provides a true measure of the population  may be difficult to enumerate all units of
(no sampling error) the population within the available time
 benchmark data may be obtained for  higher costs, both in staff and monetary
future studies terms, than for a sample
 detailed information about small sub-  generally takes longer to collect, process,
groups within the population is more and release data than from a sample
likely to be available  generally produces many non-sampling
errors

Advantages of a sample Disadvantages of a sample

19
  reduces cost - both in monetary  data may not be representative of the
terms and staffing requirements. total population, particularly where the
 reduces time needed to collect sample size is small and/or sampling
and process the data and technique is inaccurate
produce results as it requires a  often not suitable for producing
smaller scale of operation. benchmark data
 if good sampling techniques are used, the  as data are collected from a subset of
results can be very representative of the units and inferences made about the
actual population whole population, the data are subject to
 generally reduces non-sampling errors 'sampling' error
 decreased number of units will reduce
the detailed information available about
sub-groups within a population

Useful Terminology
Let us describe some demographic terms often needed for studying demography.

Family
By US definition, a family is the entire group of (two or more) persons in a
household who are related by blood, marriage or adoption. According to this
terminology two related married couples, a couple and their related parent-child
group or any other group of two or more persons related to each other is
counted as one family if the members occupy the same living quarters and eat
together as one household.

Household
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics defines a household as follows.
A household consists of all persons, related or unrelated living together and
taking food from a common kitchen (Census Report 2001).

Household size
The household size of any population is an important indicator of fertility and
economic burden of the population. The household size is measured as a ratio of
the total population size to the number of households. The Bangladesh Census
of 2001 enumerated 124355263 persons living in 25490822 households
resulting in an average household size of 4.9 persons per household.

¿124355263
Average Household =4.9
25490822
Household head
Household head is the person whose decision leads all important activities of the
household.

Marital status

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Marital status is a demographic characteristic involving biological, social,
economic, legal, and in many cases religious aspects.
The United Nations include the following categories in its minimum list.
 Single (never married)
 Married and not legally separated
 Widowed and not remarried
 Divorced and not remarried
 Married but legally separated.

In many instances the married, widowed and divorced/separated categories are

combined together and a new category ‘ever-married’ is created. This category
is the complement of the category ‘single’ or ‘never married’. In many reports a
category ‘currently married’ is found. This category consists of those who are
found to be married at the time of enquiry and those who have reported
themselves remarried from the status of widowed, divorced and separated.

Population density
Population density is usually computed as population per square kilometer or
per square mile of land area rather than of gross area (land and water)
For Bangladesh in 2001, the density was recorded to be 843 per square
kilometer.
124355263 2
Population Density= =843 per km
147570

Mid-year population
The population alive at the middle of the year (July 1) is called the mid-year
population or central population. When calculating a demographic rate, the
numerator is the number of events of interest (births, deaths, marriages,
disease diagnoses etc.) that occur during the specified period of time. The
denominator is either the number of person-years of exposure to risk during the
time period, or an estimate of this. In demography, the mid-year population is
often used as this estimate and is equivalent to the mean population for the
period specified.

It is of great importance to note that the population at risk or population

exposed to the risk of experiencing an event is different from the total
population at a point in time (beginning or end of the year) or total mid-year
population. The term ‘being at risk’ however does not necessarily mean that a
particular event is necessarily unwelcome; rather it reflects wider usage of an
expression that originates in mortality studies, where there is a special interest
in the risk of dying.

How do you obtain mid-year population?

Mid-year population is obtained in two ways.
a) Direct enumeration of mid-year population
Mid-year population is simply obtained by direct enumeration or count of the
population as we do in a population census.

21
b) Estimation of mid-year population
When such a count for direct enumeration is not obtainable, it is estimated as
an average of the population of the beginning and end of the year. Thus if P1 is
the initial population and P2 is the population at the end of the interval, then
their average P is

1
P= (P1+ P2)
2
This P is used to estimate the mid-year population.
Person-year lived
In its simplest sense, the term person-years refer to the exact number of years
lived by an individual or a group of people during one or more calendar years. In
calculating the person-years lived by such an individual or group we need to
know how many years the individual or group of individuals contributed to the
year or years in question.
A person who survives from January 1 to December 31 of a calendar year,
he/she contributes one person-year to the total person years live by a
6
population. A person surviving exactly 6 months contributes =0.5 person-
12
years to the total person-years lived by the group. If 10 persons each of whom
survives exactly 6 months, their contribution to the total person-years lived will
be

( )
10 ×
6
12
=5 person- years.

How do you obtain person-year lived?

There are two ways to obtain person-year lived.

a) Direct enumeration of person-year lived

This is simply obtained by direct enumeration of person-year lived by a group of
individuals in specified time.

How person-years lived is computed by direct enumeration

Let us illustrate the method below. We reproduce a table below to illustrate the
computation of person-years lived by direct enumeration.

Table: Computation of person-years lived by direct enumeration

Person-
No. of No. of No. of days
born/arrived died/ migrate out years
persons days lived in a year
lived
born
1 previously died 15 Jan 15 365 0.04
3 born 11 Jan died 25 Feb 45 365 0.37
2 born 24 Jun - 190 365 1.04
4 arrived 18 Apr - 258 365 2.83
1 born Dec 15 migrated out 31 16 365 0.04

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 Dec
born
35 previously - 365 365 35.00
Tota
l 46 39.32

Note that the computation of person years lived by direct enumeration is a

troublesome as well as time consuming job and is almost always impossible to
calculate this in absence of reliable vital statistics.

b) Estimation of person-year lived

When direct enumeration is not obtainable, it is estimated as an average of the
population of the beginning and end of the year. In other words, mid-year
population is an approximation to the person-year lived.
How person-years lived is estimated by mid-year population
Instead of direct enumeration, mid-year population Pis used as an estimate of
the person-years lived. This P in most cases gives a reasonable approximation
to the number of person-years lived and is very convenient to calculate.

In this approximation, we assume that birth, deaths and migration in or out of

the population are evenly spread out during this period under study. If the
assumption is true, then the number of people alive at the middle of the year
(July 1) i.e., mid-year population is a good approximation to the number of
person-years lived.

Equivalently, mid-year population obtained as the average of initial and end

population is an approximation of person-years lived.

If birth, death and migration in and out of the population are evenly distributed
throughout the year:

a) For every birth at midnight on January 1, there is one at midnight on

December 30. the average number of person-years lived for these two births is:

[(364 1
+
365 365 )
÷2 =
1
2 ]
b) For every death at midnight on January 15, there is one at midnight on
December 16. the average number of person-years lived for these two deaths is:

[(15 350
+
365 365 )
÷2 =
1
2 ]
1
That is, each individual after initial population contributes person-years on
2
average.
Therefore,

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 1
Total person− years lived=Initial population+ ( Number of individuals after initial population )
2
1
¿ P1 + ( P2−P1 ) , where P 1=Initial population∧P2 =End population
2
1 1
¿ P + P2
2 1 2
1
¿ (P1 + P2 )
2
¿P

This is why the mid-year population is usually a good approximation to the

person years lived. To calculate the mid-year population one would usually take
the population on January 1 of the year ‘X’,
add it to the population on January 1 of year ‘X + 1’ and divide the sum by 2.

Lexis diagram
In demography a Lexis Diagram (named after economist and social scientist
Wilhelm Lexis) is a two dimensional diagram that is used to represent events
(such as births or deaths) that occur to individuals belonging to different
cohorts. Calendar time is usually represented on the horizontal axis, while age is
represented on the vertical axis. In some textbooks, the y-axis is plotted
backwards, with 0 at the top of the page and increasing downwards. However,
other arrangements of the axes are also seen.
As an example, the death of an individual in 2009 at age 80 is represented by
the point (2009, 80) the cohort of all persons born in 1929 is represented by a
diagonal line starting at (1929, 0) and continuing through (1930, 1) and so on.

The figure below depicts a Lexis diagram, which is a plot of a population’s life
experience in time versus age. The graph is sectioned into 1- year by 1- year
cells. Each line represents and individual’s life, which ends in death (labeled ‘x’)
or out migration (solid dot). An individual also may, at some time, migrate into
the population (hollow dot).

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 Figure 1: Lexis Diagram

Cohort analysis versus period analysis

A cohort is a group of persons experiencing a given event for sharing a common characteristic
over a specified period of time, usually a single year or a five-year period. For example, a group
of persons marrying at a particular time period constitutes a marriage cohort; on the other hand, a
group of persons born in a specified time period constitutes a birth cohort.

When a demographic analysis applies to events occurring to a single cohort, we speak of a cohort
analysis. The cohort analysis is also known as longitudinal or generation analysis. When the
analysis applies to a category of events experienced by a group of cohorts during a given year (or
in a period of years), we then speak of a period analysis.

For instance, we may be interested in death in the year 1957. These deaths take place among
about a hundred different birth cohorts. As a second example, when referring to newborns of the
year 2005, we may speak readily of ‘the 2005 birth cohort’. The period analysis may also be
called current or cross sectional analysis. The period analysis is the most prevalent approach to
demographic enquiry, which utilizes census, survey and vital registration data for a calendar
year.

The differences between cohort and period analysis arise from their use of different concepts of
time. Periods are identified as intervals of time, commonly a year, although census dates, which
refer to points in time, can also serve as bases for period analysis. A study of the characteristics
of Bangladesh population at the 2011 census would constitute a period analysis. Period analysis
entails the study of populations of different cohorts in particular year or longer intervals. In

25
contrast, the synonym ‘longitudinal analysis’ is used for cohort analysis, denoting an interest in
tracing the experience of a group of people or a cohort over successive years. Cohorts are
identified according to the duration of time since a defining life event, such as birth or marriage.

Cohort analysis and period analysis by Lexis diagram

The Lexis diagram may help us to visualize more succinctly the differences between period
analysis and cohort analysis. To understand this, let us look at the diagram presented in Figure 2.
On the diagram, the horizontal axis shows the calendar years through a series of points with
equidistant intervals. The points represent dates, such as 1 st January, while the intervals are
calendar years. The vertical axis represents age. Points on the vertical axis are the birthdays, for
example 1, the first birthday, 2 the second and so on.

Figure 2: Lexis diagram displaying period analysis and cohort analysis

26
Cohort analysis for 2011 may be shown as above (partial display of Figure 2).

Diagonals across the grid represent the lives of individuals. For example, a child born on 1 st
January 2011 will be one year old on the 1 st day of January, 2012, two years old next year on the
same date, that is on the 1st day of January, 2013 and so on. The line connecting these points
describes the location of the individual in time and is called a ‘life line’. Individuals born on
other days in 2011 have parallel life lines. Thus the diagonal on the Lexis diagram represents the
life lines of all individuals belonging to the year 2011 birth cohort.

Period analysis entails working with data for a vertical cross-section on the Lexis diagram. The
cross section consists of information for all age groups, or at least a selection of age groups, at
the same date or a particular year. The vertical lines on the diagram represent cross section at
dates, while the shaded vertical band is a cross-section for the calendar year 2011. In contrast,
cohort analysis uses data for one group- such as the year 2011 birth cohort, as depicted by the
diagonal band. Clearly, cohort analysis requires data on the same people over the successive
years and ages. The difficulty in assembling such data is the main obstacle to cohort analysis.

Demographic dividend
Demographic dividend refers to a period- usually 20 to 30 years- when fertility rates fall due to
significant reduction in child and infant mortality rates and further the proportion of non-
productive dependents reduces. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) stated that, “a
country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to
reap a demographic dividend”.

Due to the dividend between young and old, many argue that there is a great potential for
economic gains. In order for economic growth to occur the younger population must have access
to quality education, adequate nutrition and health including access to sexual and reproductive
health.

Demographic transition
It refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates in a country
which develop through a series of stages of transition from a pre-industrial to an industrialized

27
economic system. Demographic transition is described on the basis of the relationship between
population growth and economic development of a country.

Stages of demographic transition

Stage 1: Pre- transition: death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance.

Stage 2: Early transition: death rates drop rapidly due to improvement in food supply,
sanitation, health etc. but birth rates do not fall comparatively that produces an imbalance.

Stage 3: Late transition: stage 3 moved population towards stability through a decline in birth
rate as well. Birth rate falls due to access to contraception, women education, women
empowerment, urbanization and other social, cultural and economic changes.

Stage 4: Post-transition: birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as in Germany,
Italy, and Japan which leave a tendency to shrinking population.

Stage 5: There are usually four stages of demographic transition but sometimes there may be a
5th stage in which fertility is again raised to some extent to avoid threat of shrinking population.

Demographic transition in Bangladesh

Analyzing the history of population of Bangladesh from 1901 to 2010 (110 years), the scenario
of crude birth rate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR), and rate of natural increase (RNI) are found
which show the demographic transition of Bangladesh as below:
1901- 1921: roughly stage 1
1921- 1971: stage 2
1971 up to date: stage 3

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