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15 views

Tcadvisory

pepioto

Uploaded by

snikkirose17
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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MMSS-05 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 4


Tropical Storm MAN-YI
Issued at 11:00 AM, 14 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD.

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of Tropical Storm MAN-YI was estimated based on


all available data at 1,375 km East of Northeastern
Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR) (10.5°N, 138.0°E).

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center,


gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 996 hPa

Present Movement

West southwestward at 25 km/h


Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 380 km
from the center

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST


Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
1,075 km East of Northeastern Mindanao
8:00 PM 10.2 135.3 100 STS W 30
(OUTSIDE PAR)
14 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 10.3 132.0 690 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar 120 TY W 30
15 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 10.9 129.2 375 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar 130 TY WNW 25
15 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 11.8 126.8 150 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar 150 TY WNW 25
16 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 12.8 124.8 Over the coastal waters of Laoang, Northern Samar 175 TY WNW 20
16 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 13.8 122.7 Over the coastal waters of Ragay, Camarines Sur 175 TY WNW 20
17 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 15.9 117.9 265 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan 120 TY WNW 25
18 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
720 km West of Bacnotan, La Union
8:00 AM 17.6 113.7 110 TY WNW 20
(OUTSIDE PAR)
19 November 2024

Page 1 of 2

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-05 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 4


Tropical Storm MAN-YI
Issued at 11:00 AM, 14 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD

• Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, MAN-YI is forecast to move southwestward over the next 12 hours
before turning generally westward while approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
MAN-YI may enter the PAR region this evening as “PEPITO”.
• Within the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will move generally west northwestward through the rest of the forecast period. On
the track forecast, PEPITO may make landfall over the eastern coast of Southern Luzon during the weekend (16 or 17
November). It must be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone,
especially on the 3rd and 4th day of the forecast track. Therefore, the landfall point may also shift within the range of
the forecast confidence cone from the eastern coast of Central Luzon to the eastern coast of Eastern Visayas.
• MAN-YI is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm today and may reach typhoon category by tomorrow morning. The
possibility of rapid intensification is not ruled out. Since this tropical cyclone may reach typhoon category while over the
Philippine Sea, the possibility for MAN-YI to reach super typhoon category prior to landfall is also not ruled out.
Regardless, MAN-YI may make landfall at peak intensity.
• Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards and due to the shifting track
forecast of MAN-YI, most areas in Luzon and Eastern Visayas are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly,
storm surge inundation from MAN-YI which may cause considerable impacts.
• This tropical cyclone may bring potentially risky or hazardous sea conditions (at least moderate to rough or worse) over
the eastern seaboard of the country beginning on late Friday or on Saturday.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue
monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 2 of 2

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines

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