Georgia

Standards of Excellence
Curriculum Frameworks

Mathematics

GSE Grade 7
Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Unit 6
Probability
TABLE OF CONTENTS
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................... 3
STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE .................................................................. 3
STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT ................................................................... 4
BIG IDEAS ..................................................................................................................................... 5
ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS ............................................................................................................ 5
CONCEPTS AND SKILLS TO MAINTAIN ................................................................................ 6
FLUENCY ...................................................................................................................................... 6
SELECTED TERMS AND SYMBOLS ......................................................................................... 7
SPOTLIGHT TASKS ..................................................................................................................... 8
3-ACT TASKS................................................................................................................................ 8
TASKS ............................................................................................................................................ 9
Probability on the Number Line ........................................................................................ 11
Heads Wins! ......................................................................................................................... 17
Lottery ............................................................................................................................... 23
What Are Your Chances? ................................................................................................ 25
Yellow Starburst ..................................................................................................................... 37
Probably Graphing ............................................................................................................. 42
Skittles probability ............................................................................................................ 48
What’s Your Outcome? ........................................................................................................ 61
Number Cube Sums ............................................................................................................ 66
Dice Game Task ................................................................................................................. 74
Spinner Bingo ……………………… .......................................................................................... 80
Card Game………………………… ............................................................................................ 82
Is It Fair? ........................................................................................................................ 84
Designing Simulations ....................................................................................................... 93
Conducting Simulations ..................................................................................................... 102
TECHNOLOGY RESOURCES ................................................................................................. 111
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES.................................................................................................... 113

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

OVERVIEW

The units in this instructional framework emphasize key standards that assist students to develop
a deeper understanding of numbers. They learn to express different representations of rational
numbers (e.g., fractions, decimals, and percent’s), and also discover the concept of probability.
They begin to expand their knowledge of simple probabilities and are introduced to the concept
of compound probability. The Big Ideas that are expressed in this unit are integrated with such
routine topics as estimation, mental and basic computation. All of these concepts need to be
reviewed throughout the year.

Take what you need from the tasks and modify as required. These tasks are suggestions,
something that you can use as a resource for your classroom.

STANDARDS ADDRESSED IN THIS UNIT

Mathematical standards are interwoven and should be addressed throughout the year in as many
different units and activities as possible in order to emphasize the natural connections that exist
among mathematical topics.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. Students make sense of probability
situations by creating visual, tabular and symbolic models to represent the situations. They
persevere through approximating probabilities and refining approximations based upon data.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively. Students’ reason about the numerical values used to
represent probabilities as values between 0 and 1.

3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. Students approximate
probabilities and create probability models and explain reasoning for their approximations. They
also question each other about the representations they create to represent probabilities.

4. Model with mathematics. Students model real world populations using mathematical
probability representations that are algebraic, tabular or graphic.

5. Use appropriate tools strategically. Students select and use technological, graphic or real-
world contexts to model and simulate probabilities.

6. Attend to precision. Students use precise language and calculations to represent probabilities
in mathematical and real-world contexts.

7. Look for and make use of structure. Students recognize that probability can be represented
in tables, visual models, or as a rational number.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

8. Look for express regularity in repeated reasoning. Students use repeated reasoning when
approximating probabilities. They refine their approximations based upon experiences with data.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1
that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood.
A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that
is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.
MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all
outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.
MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing
frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open‐
end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the
observed frequencies?
MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.
MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event
is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized
lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double
sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create a
simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A
blood?

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

BIG IDEAS

• Probabilities are fractions derived from modeling real world experiments and simulations
of chance.
• Modeling real world experiments through trials and simulations are used to predict the
probability of a given event.
• Chance has no memory. For repeated trials of a simple experiment, the outcome of prior
trials has no impact on the next.
• The probability of a given event can be represented as a fraction between 0 and 1.
• Probabilities are similar to percents. They are all between 0 and 1, where a probability of
0 means an outcome has 0% chance of happening and a probability of 1 means that the
outcome will happen 100% of the time. A probability of 50% means an even chance of
the outcome occurring.

• The sum of the probabilities of every outcome in a sample space should always equal 1.
• The experimental probability or relative frequency of outcomes of an event can be used
to estimate the exact probability of an event.
• Experimental probability approaches theoretical probability when the number of trials is
large.
• Sometimes the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another event. (This
is when the outcomes are called independent.)
• Tree diagrams and arrays are useful for describing relatively small sample spaces and
computing probabilities, as well as for visualizing why the number of outcomes can be
extremely large.
• Simulations can be used to collect data and estimate probabilities for real situations that
are sufficiently complex that the theoretical probabilities are not obvious.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS

• Why must the numeric probability of an event be between 0 and 1?

• What is the likeliness of an event occurring based on the probability near 0, ½, or 1?
• How can you determine the likelihood that an event will occur?
• How are the outcomes of given events distinguished as possible?
• What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
• What is the significance of a large number of trials?
• How do I determine a sample space?
• How can you represent the likelihood of an event occurring?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

• How are theoretical probabilities used to make predictions or decisions?

• How can you represent the probability of compound events by constructing models?
• How can I use probability to determine if a game is worth playing or to figure my
chances of winning the lottery?
• What is the process to design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound
events?

CONCEPTS AND SKILLS TO MAINTAIN

It is expected that students will have prior knowledge/experience related to the concepts and
skills identified below. It may be necessary to pre-assess in order to determine if time needs to
be spent on conceptual activities that help students develop a deeper understanding of these
ideas.
• number sense
• computation with whole numbers and decimals, including application of order of
operations
• addition and subtraction of common fractions with like denominators
• measuring length and finding perimeter and area of rectangles and squares
• characteristics of 2-D and 3-D shapes
• data usage and representations

FLUENCY
It is expected that students will continue to develop and practice strategies to build their capacity
to become fluent in mathematics and mathematics computation. The eventual goal is
automaticity with math facts. This automaticity is built within each student through strategy
development and practice. The following section is presented in order to develop a common
understanding of the ideas and terminology regarding fluency and automaticity in mathematics:

Fluency: Procedural fluency is defined as skill in carrying out procedures flexibly, accurately,
efficiently, and appropriately. Fluent problem solving does not necessarily mean solving
problems within a certain time limit, though there are reasonable limits on how long computation
should take. Fluency is based on a deep understanding of quantity and number.

Deep Understanding: Teachers teach more than simply “how to get the answer” and instead
support students’ ability to access concepts from a number of perspectives. Therefore students
are able to see math as more than a set of mnemonics or discrete procedures. Students
demonstrate deep conceptual understanding of foundational mathematics concepts by applying
them to new situations, as well as writing and speaking about their understanding.

Memorization: The rapid recall of arithmetic facts or mathematical procedures. Memorization is

often confused with fluency. Fluency implies a much richer kind of mathematical knowledge and
experience.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Number Sense: Students consider the context of a problem, look at the numbers in a problem,
make a decision about which strategy would be most efficient in each particular problem.
Number sense is not a deep understanding of a single strategy, but rather the ability to think
flexibly between a variety of strategies in context.

Fluent students:

● flexibly use a combination of deep understanding, number sense, and memorization.

● are fluent in the necessary baseline functions in mathematics so that they are able to spend
their thinking and processing time unpacking problems and making meaning from them.

● are able to articulate their reasoning.

● find solutions through a number of different paths.

For more about fluency, see: http://www.youcubed.org/wp-

content/uploads/2015/03/FluencyWithoutFear-2015.pdf and:http://joboaler.com/timed-tests-and-
the-development-of-math-anxiety/

SELECTED TERMS AND SYMBOLS

The following terms and symbols are often misunderstood. These concepts are not an inclusive
list and should not be taught in isolation. However, due to evidence of frequent difficulty and
misunderstanding associated with these concepts, instructors should pay particular attention to
them and how their students are able to explain and apply them.

Students should explore these concepts using models and real life examples. Students should
understand the concepts involved and be able to recognize and/or demonstrate them with words,
models, pictures, or numbers.

Definitions and activities for these and other terms can be found on the Intermath website,
http://intermath.coe.uga.edu/dictnary/homepg.asp, and the Learning Progression for 6-8 Statistics
and Probability at http://commoncoretools.me/category/progressions/.

• Chance Process
• Compound Event
• Empirical
• Event
• Experimental Probability
• Independent events
• Probability
• Probability Model
• Relative Frequency of Outcomes
• Sample space

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

• Simple Event
• Simulation
• Theoretical Probability
• Tree diagram

SPOTLIGHT TASKS
A Spotlight Task has been added to each CCGPS mathematics unit in the Georgia resources for
middle and high school. The Spotlight Tasks serve as exemplars for the use of the Standards for
Mathematical Practice, appropriate unit-level Mathematics Georgia Standards of Excellence, and
research-based pedagogical strategies for instruction and engagement. Each task includes teacher
commentary and support for classroom implementation. Some of the Spotlight Tasks are
revisions of existing Georgia tasks and some are newly created. Additionally, some of the
Spotlight Tasks are 3-Act Tasks based on 3-Act Problems from Dan Meyer and Problem-Based
Learning from Robert Kaplinsky.

3-ACT TASKS
A Three-Act Task is a whole group mathematics task consisting of 3 distinct parts: an engaging
and perplexing Act One, an information and solution seeking Act Two, and a solution discussion
and solution revealing Act Three.

More information along with guidelines for 3-Act Tasks may be found in the Comprehensive
Course Guide.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

TASKS

Task Type Standards

Task Content Addressed
Grouping Strategy Addressed

Introduction to probability by
determining the appropriate place
Probability Learning Task on the continuum between 0 and 1
on a Number Line Individual/Partner for statements, terms, fractions, MGSE.7.SP.5
decimals, percents, and pictures.

Learning Task Create tree diagrams to calculate

Heads Wins! Partner/Small probability to determine if a game
MGSE.7.SP.8
Group is worth playing.
Use sample space and probability
Lottery Short Cycle Task to determine if a lottery project MGSE.7.SP.5
will generate money MGSE.7.SP.6
Determine if the outcome of one
Learning Task event is affected by the outcome
What areYour
Partner/Small of a different event. Determine
Chances? MGSE.7.SP.8
Group the outcomes for independent and
dependent events.

Spotlight Task
Yellow Starburst Using data to make predictions MGSE7.SP.2
Partner/Small
(Spotlight Task) about frequency. MGSE7.SP.6
Group

Conduct a coin tossing

experiment for 30 trials, graph
results, and show a line graph that
Probably progresses toward the theoretical
Learning Task MGSE.7.SP.5
Graphing probability. The graph will also
Individual/Partner MGSE.7.SP.6
allow for a representation of
heads or tails throughout the
experiment.
MGSE.7.SP.5
MGSE.7.SP.6
MGSE.7.SP.7
Build understanding of the
Skittles (Spotlight Learning Task MGSE.7.SP.7a
theoretical probability of rolling a
Task) Small Group MGSE.7.SP.7b
pair of dice.
MGSE.7.SP.8
MGSE.7.SP.8a
MGSE.7.SP.8b

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Learning Task Build understanding of the

What’s Your
Partner/Small probability of rolling a pair of
Outcome? MGSE.7.SP.7
Group dice.
MGSE.7.SP.8
Learning Task
Number Cube Use probability to determine if a MGSE.7.SP.6
Sums Partner/Small game is worth playing. MGSE.7.SP.7
Group MGSE.7.SP.8

Demonstrate understanding of
Performance Task theoretical and experimental
Dice Game Task probability through comparison MGSE.7.SP.7
Individual/Partner based upon game results and MGSE.7.SP.8
representation of data.

Determine which bingo card has

Spinner Bingo Short Cycle Task the greatest probability of MGSE.7.SP.6
winning MGSE.7.SP.7

Use probability to make

Card Game Short Cycle Task MGSE.7.SP.6
predictions about a card game.
MGSE.7.SP.7

Performance Task Evaluate predictions made prior to

playing using data obtained from
Is It Fair? MGSE.7.SP.7
Partner/Small trials. Determine all outcomes and
MGSE.7.SP.8
Group create tree diagrams to determine
the theoretical chance of winning
for each player.

Designing Learning Task Design models to simulate actual MGSE.7.SP.6

Simulations events using a random event. MGSE.7.SP.7
Partner
MGSE.7.SP.8c
Design models to simulate actual
Culminating Task events using a random event and
Conducting MGSE.7.SP.6
Partner/Small estimate the likelihood of a
Simulations MGSE.7.SP.7
Group particular outcome using results
of simulations.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Probability on the Number Line Back to task table

Students are introduced to the idea of probability by discussing the likelihood of events
occurring while making connections to past experiences in life while creating a graphic
organizer.
Students classify the probability statements, terms, fractions, decimals, percents, and pictures
according to the appropriate place on the continuum between 0 and 1.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that
expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A
probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is
neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.

BACKGROUND KNOWLEDGE
In order for students to be successful, the following skills and concepts need to be maintained:
The probability of a given event can be represented as a decimal or fraction between 0 and 1.
Probabilities are similar to percents. They are all between 0 and 1, where a probability of 0
means an outcome has 0% chance of happening and a probability of 1 means that the outcome
will happen 100% of the time. A probability of 50% means an even chance of the outcome
occurring.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

ORDERING RATIONAL NUMBERS

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students have trouble grasping the concept that the probability of an event is a number that lies
strictly between 0 and 1 and that all probabilities of events will add to 1.
Students may struggle deciphering where some of these events will be placed on the number line,
like it will snow this week. Make sure to emphasize that some of these events are subjective and
can be placed on multiple points on the number line
ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS
What is the likeliness of an event occurring based on the probability near 0, ½, or 1?
How can events be described using probability?

MATERIALS

• Large sheet of paper to construct number line(s)

• Copy of handout with cards
• Scissors
• Glue
• Markers
• String and clothes pins *if creating large number line
• Masking tape for the floor *if creating large number line.

GROUPING
Individual, partner, small group, or whole class
TASK DESCRIPTION
Students should construct a number line starting at 0 and ending at 1. Divide the line into
fourths. The cards should be cut apart and place at the appropriate point on the number line.
Students pair with partner or group to share and defend their results. Discuss the similarities and
differences among the results with students. A large scale probability line can be created for the
classroom using a clothes line or masking tape on the floor.

Students are introduced to the idea of probability by discussing the likelihood of events occurring
while making connections to past experiences in life while creating a graphic organizer.
Students classify the probability statements, terms, fractions, decimals, percents, and pictures
according to the appropriate place on the continuum between 0 and 1.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

PROBABILITY ON THE NUMBER LINE

Construct a number line starting at 0 and ending at 1. Divide the line into fourths. The cards
should be cut apart and placed (glued) at the appropriate point on the number line.

Students pair with partner or group to share and defend results. Discuss the similarities and
differences among the results.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Impossible Maybe Certain Good Chance

Unlikely Likely Probable Small Chance

Even Chance 0% 100% 10%

25% 50% 75% 90%

1 1 3
0.25
4 2 4

1
0.50 0.75 33%
8

The Braves will You will have two If today is Friday, You will meet
win the World birthdays this tomorrow will be President George
Series. year. Saturday. Washington on the
way home from
school today.
At least one
The sun will rise You will be in the
You will go to the student will be
tomorrow 8th grade next
beach sometime. absent tomorrow
morning. year.
at your school.

If you drop a rock It will rain

It will snow this You will watch TV tomorrow.
in water, it will
week. sometime today.
sink.

5/8 .88 6/16 7/8

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Solutions: (assuming horizontal number line)

L-R Percents:0%, 10%, 25%, 33%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 100%
L-R fractions: 1/8, ¼, 6/16, ½, 5/8, ¾, 7/8
L-R decimals: .25, .50, .75, .88
L-R subjective statements:*teacher should note that these statements will be in different
locations based upon the students’ individual experiences.
Sample order: unlikely, small chance, maybe, Braves will win world series, it will snow, rock
will sink (pumice will float), go to beach, student absent tomorrow, it will rain, likely,
good chance, probable, likely, sun will rise, go to 8th grade next year, watch TV
L-R non-subjective statements:
Zero-You will meet G. Washington on the way home from school today, 2 birthdays in one
year, and impossible, even chance, certain
L-R pictures:

DIFFERENTIATION
Extension
• Have students create at least 4 extra cards with a decimal, fraction, probability statement,
and word of their choice.
• Ask students to take the subjective statements and discuss/write out 3 different
circumstances for each in which the statement would be placed in 3 different locations on
the number line.

Intervention
• After students set up their number line and cut out their cards, lead them through the
process of deciding the location of each card by talking through the kind of thinking that
allows for a position on the number line to be chosen. Assign each student one of the
cards to choose a location for and ask each to talk through his/her thinking to the rest of
the class. Create the number line together as a class as students share their assigned card.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Probability on the Number Line

1. Construct a number line on a separate piece of paper starting at 0 and ending at 1.

2. Divide the line into fourths.
3. Place or glue each card at the appropriate spot on the number line.
4. Share and defend results. Discuss the similarities and differences among the results.

Impossible Maybe Certain Good Chance

Unlikely Likely Probable Small Chance

Even Chance 0% 100% 10%

25% 50% 75% 90%

1 1 3
0.25
4 2 4
1
0.50 0.75 33%
8
If today is Friday, You will meet Pres.
The Braves will win You will have two
tomorrow will be Washington outside
the World Series. birthdays this year.
Saturday. of school today.
At least one student
The sun will rise You will go to the will be absent You will be in the 8th
tomorrow morning. beach sometime. tomorrow at your grade next year.
school.

If you drop a rock in It will snow this You will watch TV It will rain
water, it will sink. week. sometime today. tomorrow.

5/8 0.88 6/16 7/8

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Heads Wins! Back to task table

Adapted from 8th Grade GPS Unit 1
Originally from Learner.org and can be done interactively at the following website:
http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/learningmath/data/session8/part_c/index.html.

In this task, students will use probability to determine if a game is worth playing.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
6. Attend to precision.
ESSENTIAL QUESTION:
• How can I use probability to determine if a game is worth playing or to figure my
chances of winning the lottery?

MATERIALS:
• coins, colored tiles, or counters

TASK DIRECTIONS:

a) Suppose you are approached by a classmate who invites you to play a game with the
following rules: Each of you takes a turn flipping a coin. You toss your coin first, and he
tosses his coin second.
• He gives you $1 each time one of the coins lands on tails.
• You give him $1 each time one of the coins lands on heads.

a. Create a tree diagram for the four possible outcomes and probabilities for the two
tosses.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

b. What are the possible outcomes?

c. What are your winnings for each outcome?

Comments:
The following notes are for your own review of the concept of compound probability. Students
do not need to use this algorithm until later in the unit. Encourage students to determine the
outcomes using their tree diagram.

Problem 1:
Applying the tree diagram to Heads Wins! Task shows the possible outcomes, resulting
winnings for Student 1, and the probability of each.
• Note that the probability of getting Heads or Tails on any flip is ½.
=
• The probability of getting Heads on the first flip AND Heads on the second flip is
(½) (½) = ¼. The same is true for each of the other outcomes.
• The outcome for each flip of a coin is independent of the outcome of any other
flip; that is, one outcome is not influenced by another outcome. The Probability
Rule for finding the probability that two independent events A and B both happen
is P(A and B) = P(A)•P(B). This rule is commonly referred to as the Multiplication
Rule of Probability.
• In this setting, (A and B) refers to the single event of flipping two coins. The
sample space for (A and B) is the set {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Solutions:
1a.

1b. sample space = {heads and heads, heads and tails, tails and heads, tails and tails}
sample space = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

1c. HH = - $2.00
HT = $0.00
TH = $0.00
TT = $2.00
2. Suppose your classmate suggests a change to the rules of the game. He suggests the
following rules after you flip a coin.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

• If you get heads, you give him $2.

• If you get tails, then he flips his coin.
• If he gets heads, you give him $1.
• If he gets tails, he gives you $2.

Who is most likely to win? Justify your reasoning.

Comments:

Encourage students to justify their reasoning in an organized manner (i.e. tree

diagram). Students might need prompting to create a tree diagram, writing out the
probabilities as fractions or decimals and percent.

Flipping one coin is a simple event; the probability of flipping one coin and getting Heads
is ½. Flipping one coin and getting Tails is also a simple event with probability ½;
however in this situation, the coin must be flipped again, resulting in compound
independent events. Applying the Multiplication Rule to each compound event, we find
that P(T and H) = (½) (½) = ¼ and that P(T and T) = (½) (½) = ¼.

• To calculate probability of their net winnings, we introduce the Addition Rule of

Probability for independent events: P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B).
▪ In this case, we expand the rule to cover 3 possible outcomes:
▪ P(H or TH or TT) = P(H) + P(TH) + P(TT) = ½ + ¼ + ¼ = 1.
▪
• Note: The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes for a given event
should always equal 1.
• Note: Each probability, p, should be between 0 and 1, inclusive; i.e., 0 ≤ p ≤ 1.
• To calculate the average winnings (i.e., the overall winnings if the game were
played many times), students should multiply the possible “winnings” for each
outcome by its probability and add the products. For this problem, the average
winnings would be
-$2(1/2) + -$1(1/4) + $2(1/4) = -$1 + -$0.25 + $0.50 = -$0.75.

So in the long run, students would lose an average of 75 cents playing Game 2.
Applying the formula to their Game 1“winnings,” students should find that they
would break even in the long run.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Solutions:

Possible solutions

Follow-up Activities
The ProbSim application on TI-83 calculators can also be used to simulate results for this
activity.

Extension
Construct a similar game in which you are most likely to be the winner and use a tree diagram to
illustrate the outcomes, winnings, and probabilities.

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Heads Wins!

1. Suppose you are approached by a classmate who invites you to play a game with the
following rules: Each of you takes a turn flipping a coin. You toss your coin first, and he
tosses his coin second.
• He gives you $1 each time one of the coins lands on tails.
• You give him $1 each time one of the coins land on heads. =
a. Create a tree diagram for the four possible outcomes and probabilities for the two
tosses.

=
b. What are the possible outcomes?

=
c. What are your winnings for each outcome?

2. Suppose your classmate suggests a change to the rules of the game. He suggests the
following rules after you flip a coin.

• If you get heads, you give him $2.

• If you get tails, then he flips his coin.
• If he gets heads, you give him $1.
• If he gets tails, he gives you $2.

Who is most likely to win? Justify your reasoning.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Lottery Back to task table

In this task, students use sample space and probability to determine if a lottery project will
generate money.
Source: Balanced Assessment Materials from Mathematics Assessment Project
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1160

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that
expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A
probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is
neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure.
8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.
ESSENTIAL QUESTION
• How do I apply the principles of sample space and probability to determine if a lottery is
profitable?

TASK COMMENTS

Tasks and lessons from the Mathematics Assessment Project are specifically designed to help
teachers effectively formatively assess their students. The way the tasks and lessons are designed
gives the teacher a clear understanding of what the students are able to do and not do. Within the
lesson, teachers will find suggestions and question prompts that will help guide students towards
understanding. For more information access the MAP website:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/background.php?subpage=summative

The task, Lottery, is a Mathematics Assessment Project Assessment Task that can be found at the
website: http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/tasks.php?taskid=390&subpage=expert

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

The PDF version of the task can be found at the link below:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1160

The scoring rubric can be found at the following link:

http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1161

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

What Are Your Chances? Back to task table

In this task, students will determine if the outcome of one event is affected by the outcome of a
different event. Students will also determine the outcomes for independent events and calculate
the probabilities.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create
a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one
with type A blood?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure.
8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students struggle with the overall organization of tree diagrams, especially creating the
individual levels
Students misunderstand how to read a tree diagram, sometimes relying on columns rather than
the branches
Students initially struggle with developing, creating, and interpretation of arrays
ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:

• How are the outcomes of given events distinguished as possible?

• How can you represent the likelihood of an event occurring?
• How are theoretical probabilities used to make predictions or decisions?

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

MATERIALS:

• spinner and cube templates

• scissors
• colored pencils
• brads or paper clips
• tape

GROUPING

Partner/Small Group

TASK DESCRIPTION

PART I - INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Provide students with two circles. Students are to create two four section spinners. The spinners
can consist of four different colors, numbers, letters, or pictures. After students have completed
creating their spinners, have students select one. Using the selected spinner, have students list the
possible outcomes (sample space).

Next, provide students with two nets of a cube. Students are to create two number cubes labeled
1-6. After students have completed creating their number cubes, have students select one. Using
the selected number cube, have students list the possible outcomes (sample space).

What are your Chances?

1. List the possible outcomes or sample space for the spinner you created.
2. List the possible outcomes or sample space for the number cube you created.

Comments:
Sample space for spinner (answers may vary) {red, blue, green, yellow}
Sample space for dice {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Tip: Spinners can be quickly made using a pencil and paper clip. Make a spinner by placing
a pencil on the center of the circle and inside a paper clip. Spin the paper clip around the
pencil tip.

Solutions:
Part 1a. and 1b.
Solutions may vary.

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Part 2.
3. Students are to select one spinner and one number cube. Ask
students to find the sample space (possible outcomes) for
spinning a spinner and tossing a number cube. Students may
use a table or a tree diagram to help them organize the possible
outcomes.
Possible Solution using examples for part I
{red 1, red 2, red 3, red 4, red 5, red 6, blue1 etc…}(use set notation)

4. Does spinning a four section spinner affect the number a six

sided number cube will land upon when tossed? Explain.

Comments:

EXTENSION - Discuss independent events. Independent events

result when the “occurrence or nonoccurrence of one event” has no
effect or depends on the other.

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5. Represent the two events in a two-way table.

Comment:

Two-way tables are limited to a two-event experiment.

Solution:

Select two spinners and answer the following questions:

6. EXTENSION - Explain if this is an independent or dependent event.
Comment:

It is important for students to distinguish between the two events, spinner 1 and spinner
2. For example, red on spinner 1 is a different event from red on spinner 2.

Solution: These are independent events because one spinner’s outcome does not affect
the other.

7. What is the sample space (possible outcomes) for spinning both spinners?
Answers may vary. It will depend on how students created their spinners. Make sure
students write their sample space as a set.

8. How can the events be represented in a two-way table or tree diagram?

Comment:

At this time, students should create a table or tree diagram to help them organize the
possible outcomes. Students may also use the counting principle to determine the
possible outcomes.

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Sample Solution:

Select two number cubes and answer the following questions:

9. EXTENSION - Explain if these events are independent or dependent.

Independent because tossing one number cube does not affect the result when tossing a
second number cube

10. Create a two-way table to represent the sample space.

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

11. EXTENSION - Give an example of a situation involving two independent events.

Solution: Answers may vary but students should choose two things that are unrelated to
one another. You may also want to talk about with replacement and without. One
possible example would be if students flip a coin and draw a card.

EXTENSION - PART II – DEPENDENT EVENTS

1. Based on your understanding of independent events, what would be a definition for
dependent events?
Dependent events mean the occurrence of the first event affects the second event.

2. Why would the example of drawing a card from a deck keeping it out and drawing again
be an example of a dependent event? Since you are not replacing the card, the total
number of outcomes in the second event has been affected by the first.
3. For each situation below, tell whether it is independent or dependent.

i. There are 5 marbles in a bag. Four are blue and one is red. A marble is
selected and not replaced back in the bag. _dependent___

ii. You are going to draw a card from a deck, replace it, and then draw a
second card. You are trying to find the probability of both cards being an
ace. ____independent________

iii. You flip a coin two times and find the probability of getting heads both
times. ____independent______

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iv. There are 3 red candies left in a bag of multicolored candies with 20 left.
You are finding the chances of getting a red candy, eating it, and then
getting another red candy. ___dependent_____

v. You are getting dressed in the dark. The drawer has 6 blue socks, 8 black
socks, and 10 white. You draw out a sock, hold on to it, and draw a
second sock. You are finding the probability of getting two black socks.
___dependent_______
DIFFERENTIATION
Extension

• Find probabilities using the Fundamental Counting Principle

• Find numerical probabilities of dependent and independent events and explain the
difference between the two types of events

Intervention

• Find simple probability with one, independent event like a spinner prior to finish the task
• May need additional scaffolding to create the tables and tree diagrams

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

What Are Your Chances?

PART I - INDEPENDENT EVENTS

1. List the possible outcomes or sample space for one of the spinner you created.

2. List the possible outcomes or sample space for the number cube you created.

3. Find the sample space (possible outcomes) for spinning a spinner and tossing a number
cube. Use a table or a tree diagram to help them organize the possible outcomes.

4. Does spinning a four section spinner affect the number a six sided number cube will land
upon when tossed? Explain.

5. Represent the two events in a two-way table.

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Select two spinners and answer the following questions:

6. Explain if this is an independent or dependent event?

7. What is the sample space (possible outcomes) for spinning both spinners?

8. How can the events be represented in a two-way table or tree diagram?

Select two number cubes and answer the following questions:

9. Explain if these events are independent or dependent.

10. Create a two-way table to represent the sample space.

11. Give an example of a situation involving two independent events.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

PART II – DEPENDENT EVENTS

1. Based on your understanding of independent events, what would be a definition for
dependent events?

2. Why would the example of drawing a card from a deck keeping it out and drawing again
be an example of a dependent event?

3. For each situation below, tell whether it is independent or dependent.

i. There are 5 marbles in a bag. Four are blue and one is red. A marble is
selected and not replaced back in the bag. _____________________

ii. You are going to draw a card from a deck, replace it, and then draw a
second card. You are trying to find the probability of both cards being an
ace. _______________________

iii. You flip a coin two times and find the probability of getting heads both
times. _______________________

iv. There are 3 red candies left in a bag of multicolored candies with 20 left.
You are finding the chances of getting a red candy, eating it, and then
getting another red candy. _____________________

v. You are getting dressed in the dark. The drawer has 6 blue socks, 8 black
socks, and 10 white. You draw out a sock, hold on to it, and draw a
second sock. You are finding the probability of getting two black socks.
___________________________

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Template for Spinner

Instructions:

a) Create two spinners. Each spinner needs

to have four equal sections.
b) Make each spinner using colors,
numbers, letters, or pictures.
c) Using a paper clip & your pencil, you
can “spin” the spinner by holding the
paper clip in the center of the circle
with your pencil point and thumping the
spinner.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Template for Number Cube

Instructions:

a) Create number cubes.

b) Use numbers 1-6 to create each number
cube.
c) Cut out each number cube, fold on the
lines, and tape together.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Yellow Starburst Back to task table

Task adapted from http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/ authored by Dan Meyer.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.2 Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an
unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same
size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions.

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS
How can data be used to make predictions?

MATERIALS NEEDED
Video links
Bag of Starbursts (optional)

TEACHER NOTES
In this task, students will watch the video, then tell what they noticed. They will then be asked to
discuss what they wonder or are curious about. These questions will be recorded on a class chart
or on the board. Students will then use mathematics to answer their own questions. Students will
be given information to solve the problem based on need. When they realize they don’t have the
information they need, and ask for it, it will be given to them .

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

TASK DESCRIPTION
The following 3-Act Task can be found at: http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/

More information along with guidelines for 3-Act Tasks may be found in the Comprehensive
Course Guide.
ACT 1:
Watch the video, Starburst Mountain (link:
http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/act1/act1.mov )

Ask students what questions they have about the video. Suggestions:
1. Guess how many of those packs will have exactly one yellow Starburst, Two
yellow Starbursts.
2. For each guess, write down answers you know are too high. Too low.

ACT 2:
3. What information will you need to get an answer?

Image 1: The possible Starburst colors,

http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/act2/thecolors.png

Image 2: The exact number of Starburst packs,

http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/act2/totalpacks.png

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

4. What assumptions about Starbursts are built into your answer?

5. How would knowing the frequency of Starburst colors in this sample change your
answer?

Image: The frequency of Starburst colors,

http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/act2/colorfrequency.png

ACT 3
Video: The answer, http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/act3/act3.mov

Image: The frequency of every possible pair,

http://threeacts.mrmeyer.com/yellowstarbursts/act3/allfrequencies.png

6. How close was your guess to the actual answer? How close was your math? Calculate the
percent error for each.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Yellow Starbursts Name:________________________

Adapted from Andrew Stadel
ACT 1
What did/do you notice?

What questions come to your mind?

Main Question:_______________________________________________________________

Estimate the
result of the
main question?
Explain?
Place an
estimate that is
too high and
too low on the
number line

Low estimate Place an “x” where your estimate belongs High estimate

ACT 2
What information would you like to know or do you need to solve the MAIN question?

Record the given information (measurements, materials, etc…)

If possible, give a better estimate using this information:_______________________________

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Act 2 (con’t)
Use this area for your work, tables, calculations, sketches, and final solution.

ACT 3
What was the result?

Which Standards for Mathematical Practice did

you use?
□ Make sense of problems & persevere in
□ Use appropriate tools strategically.
solving them
□ Reason abstractly & quantitatively □ Attend to precision.
□ Construct viable arguments & critique the
□ Look for and make use of structure.
reasoning of others.
□ Look for and express regularity in repeated
□ Model with mathematics.
reasoning.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Probably Graphing Back to task table

Source: NCTM: Illuminations http://illuminations.nctm.org/LessonDetail.aspx?ID=L790
Student will conduct a coin tossing experiment for 30 trials. Their results will be graphed and
shows a line graph which progresses toward the theoretical probability. The graph will also
allow for a representation of heads or tails throughout the experiment.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that
expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A
probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is
neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for an make use of structure
8. Look for and express regularity in repeating reasoning

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Whether doing simulations, experiments, or theoretical probability, it is important for students to
use many models (lists, area models, tree diagrams) and to explicitly discuss developing
conceptions and misconceptions.
In addition to being more interesting, teaching probability in this way allows students to
understand important concepts that have many real-world implications.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS

• What factors determine the likelihood that an event will occur?

• How can the likelihood that an event will occur be represented?
• Why does experimental probability approach theoretical probability?
• What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
• What is the significance of a large number of trials?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

MATERIALS
• Pennies or other coins
• Calculators
• Probably Graphing Activity Sheet

GROUPING
Individual/Partner

TASK DESCRIPTION

Opening:
Begin this activity by asking all students to stand up. Tell them you are going to flip a coin. If
they think it is going to be heads, they are to put their hands on their head. If they think the coin
is going to be tails, they are to put their hands behind their back. If they are correct, they remain
standing, if they are incorrect, they sit down. Repeat the process until there is only one person
left.

During this introduction, discuss any patterns in the results of the coin toss and the number of
students who sit down each time. Relate this to previous work by asking students what the
theoretical probability is of getting the correct answer. Students should agree that the answer is
50%. Also, keep count of how many heads and tails were tossed during the game to find the one
winner. Ask students to find the experimental probability and compare it to the theoretical.

Ask students:
a. What chance did you have of being correct on the very first flip of the coin?
b. What chance do you have of being correct the second time?
c. Does a previous flip have an effect on upcoming events?

Solutions:
Expect the following responses.

a. 1/2 or 50%
b. 50%, you have to choose between heads and tails each time. Each time your chances will be
1
/2, regardless of previous flips.
c. No. Each flip is independent of previous flips. You may wish to introduce the term
independent events.

Inform students that this lesson will continue to investigate the probabilities involved in a coin
toss. Distribute the Probably Graphing activity sheet and a penny to each student. Read through
the introduction together. Students may need help in understanding that if they get a tails, they
carry over the previous number in the Heads row.

As you read through activity sheet and before students begin the experiment, draw the coordinate
plane on the board, consider a graph with x and y axes labeled below. Ask students to discuss
what they feel the graph will look like. Have a few students come up and draw their best guesses

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

on the board. Some students may draw a graph similar to the ones below. Don’t confirm or deny
any responses. Instead ask students if they agree or disagree with the predictions.

Inform students that when they create their own graphs, they should plots the points representing
their data, then connect the points with line segments. Explain that the lines are there to help
determine the trend, but do not represent possible points on the graph like a graphed line
normally does. It is not possible to flip a coin 1.5 times.

When all questions have been addressed, allow students time to conduct their experiments and
graph their results.

Note: The chart asks for a cumulative total of heads. Please emphasize to students that this is a
running total of how many times they have landed on heads. Because students are circling heads
and tails, you can present it to students as how many heads that they have circled in total each
time in order to clarify instructions.

Closing:
Once completed, ask students to compare and contrast their results with students in their group or
around them. Find out if there is anyone who had an extremely large number of heads, or low
numbers of heads occur. Have students hold up stand up and walk around holding their graphs in
front of them and comparing to others as they walk by. Most of the graphs will probably
resemble the pattern below.

If some students have graphs that do not approach 50%, discuss their graphs with the class. Does
this mean their graphs are wrong?

From the graphs, it should be apparent that with low trial numbers the graph fluctuates greatly.
One trial may move the line 20–30%, while with nearly all trials completed the graph may only
move 1–4%. This again re-emphasizes that a small number of trials will not be a good predictor
of the theoretical probability. As the number of trials increases we begin to see a graphical

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

representation of the Law of Large Numbers. The experimental probability will approach the
theoretical probability of the event. In this case, it approached a probability of 50%.

As this experiment progresses it would take several heads in a row to create a noticeable spike.
This can lead to a discussion of whether several heads in a row is likely, even though randomly
possible. You can look at the data from your students and see what student had the most
repetitive results of heads. For example, one student may have had 6, 7 or 8 in a row. Even if
they didn’t, you can discuss how results like this would affect the graphs. They would create a
spike, until a tail occurs. Even if there was an instance of 7 in a row, the graph will still begin to
draw closer to the theoretical probability of 50% with more added trials. This can be a fun
discussion because you can never actually say it’s impossible; it is just highly unlikely or not
probable!

Solution for Task:

Answers will vary, as students will have various trial data. The graph would most likely
spike up and down at the beginning and eventually even out around 50%
(See closing above for an example graph)

FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

1. How are theoretical and experimental probabilities similar and different?
2. What happens to experimental probability as the number of trials increases?

DIFFERENTIATION
Extension
• Ask students to sketch what a graph of what the experimental probability graph would
look like for spinning a 1 on a spinner we three equally-sized sections labeled 1, 2, and 3.
Solution:
The graph would most likely spike up and down and eventually even out around 33%

• Have students design their own experiment, perform a number of trials, and graph their
results.
Intervention
• Reduce the number of trials.
• Give students an already completed data chart to graph on the coordinate plane.

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Probably Graphing (Adapted from http://illuminations.nctm.org)

To explore the probability of getting heads in a coin toss, run an experiment of 30 trials. Count
how many heads you get in 30 trials to investigate how the experimental probability changes
with each trial. In your table, record how many heads have come up in your experiment, the
number of trials completed, and the experimental probability (as a percentage) after each trial.

For example, if your first six trials resulted in Tails, Heads, Tails, Heads, and Heads your table
would look something like this:
Trial Outcomes Cumulative Frequency Probability
of Heads
(Circle H or T) (Write as a Percent)

1 H or T 0 0%

2 H or T 1 ½=50%

3 H or T 1 1/3= 33%

4 H or T 2 2/4=50%

5 H or T 3 3/5=60%

Record the result of your experiment below.

Trial Outcomes Cumulative Probability
Frequency
(Circle H or 𝑪𝒖𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆
T) of Heads 𝑭𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚
𝑻𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒍
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓

1 H or T

2 H or T

3 H or T

4 H or T

5 H or T

6 H or T

7 H or T

8 H or T

9 H or T

10 H or T

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

11 H or T

12 H or T

13 H or T

14 H or T

15 H or T

16 H or T

17 H or T

18 H or T -
19 H or T

20 H or T

21 H or T

22 H or T

23 H or T

24 H or T

25 H or T

26 H or T

27 H or T

28 H or T

29 H or T

30 H or T

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Skittles probability Back to task table

In this task students will explore the probability of outcomes when rolling two standard dice.
Skittles, or counters, are used to make predictions about outcomes.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that
expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A
probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is
neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.

MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all

outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure.

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students often misinterpret the meaning of a fair game. A fair game is one in which all possible
outcomes have the same likelihood of occurring, such as rolling a standard die. The outcomes
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) are all equally likely. However, when rolling two dice the different sums have
different probabilities. Students should explore activities with dice, such as this task, to discover
that certain sums are more likely than others.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS

• What is the probability of outcomes when rolling a pair of dice?

• How can probability be used to determine if a game is fair?

MATERIALS

• Skittles Probability: Part 1: Play the Game! Task Directions- one per group
• Skittles Probability: Questions and Observations- one per student
• Play board number line- one per group
• Skittles candies or cutouts, sorted by color, two sets of 12 for each student (one set for
each round of play). Remind students that the Skittles are a tool for learning and can be
enjoyed after the task is completed. M&M’s can be used in place of Skittles however, be
mindful of possible peanut allergies. It is advisable to only pass out one set of candies at
a time; one set at the beginning of each new round.
• Dice- one pair per group
• Suggested items: bathroom cups for students to store their candies during play

GROUPING:
Groups of 3-4 students are appropriate. Students will need space to roll dice and record data.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

TASK COMMENTS:

The purpose of this activity is for students to explore the possible outcomes of rolling two dice
and to develop a concrete understanding of the meaning of an event with 0 probability. Allow
students to make these discoveries on their own. If, by the end of Round 2, students have yet to
realize that rolling a sum of 0, 1, or 13 is impossible, and therefore the probability is 0, guided
questions such as “What are all the ways to roll a sum of 5? 4? 3? 2? 1?” should lead them
towards this discovery. Explicitly discussing the probability of rolling a 0, 1, or 13 prior to
students engaging in the task greatly undermines the purpose of this activity.

During game play: When the dice are rolled, ALL students are eligible to remove a counter
from the board. It doesn’t really matter who is rolling the dice. Students should be reminded to
only take one counter away at a time. For example, if a pair of 5’s are rolled each student who
placed a bet on 10 should remove only one counter. Students often mistakenly think they should
take all of the counters they placed on 10.

TASK DESCRIPTION:

In groups of 3-5, students will make predictions about the outcomes of rolling a pair of dice.
Each time the dice rolled, the sum is recorded and each player can remove 1 counter from that
spot on the number line. The goal of the game is to be the first student to remove all counters
from the number line. Students will roll a pair of dice, remove counters, and record the
frequency of the sums as they play. There are two rounds of play, each with a set of follow-up
questions.

A number line, similar to the play board, should be created to record class data (i.e. on a
whiteboard, poster paper, etc.). If you plan to use this activity with multiple classes throughout
the day, be sure to keep track of each class’ data.

DIFFERENTIATION:

Extension- Follow-up with “Skittles Probability Part 2: Theoretical vs. Experimental”

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Skittles probability- Part 1: Play the Game!

TASK DIRECTIONS 8. Individually answer “Round 2
Questions”.
1. Gather materials. Each group needs a 9. Record your frequencies on the class
playboard number line, a pair of dice, number line.
and Skittles counters. Each player gets 10. Record observations of the class data.
12 Skittles counters. Make sure each Sum Frequency Frequency Total
player has a different color. Round 1 Round 2 Frequency
2. Place your predications. Each player (Round 1 +
Round 2)
places all 12 counters along the number
0
line. You may place them anywhere
you from from 0 to 13. 1
3. Choose a recorder. The recorder will
keep track of the frequency of the rolls. 2
Every time your team rolls the dice and
a sum is found, record a tally mark. 3
4. Play Round 1. Player 1 rolls the dice.
Together, determine the sum of the 4
numbers that appear on the face of the
dice. Record the sum on the frequency 5
table. If a player has a counter on that
6
number, s/he takes one counter off the
board. If there are no counters on that
7
number, record the sum on the
frequency table and then Player 2 rolls 8
the dice. Continue rolling the dice,
recording the sum, and removing 9
counters until a player has no remaining
counters on the board. Whoever 10
removes all of their counters from the
board first is the winner of round 1. 11
5. Individually answer “Round 1
Questions”. 12
6. Play Round 2. The rules and
13
procedures are the same as for Round 1.
Remember to keep track of your tally
marks.
7. Determine the total frequency for
each sum from rounds 1 and 2.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Skittles probability- Questions and Observations

I. Questions after Round 1:
1. Is the game fair? Explain your answer.
The game is NOT fair because not all outcomes have the same probability of
occurring. See “Common Misconceptions” for further explanation.

2. How did you decide where you would place the counters?

3. In round 2, will you place your counters differently?

Most students will realize that they shouldn’t place any counters on 0, 1, or 13.
However, do not explicitly point it out if students have yet to make the connection
between the possibility of rolling a 0, 1, or 13 and its probability of occurring.

II. Questions, after Round 2:

1. Did the changes in the distribution of the counters change your outcome?

2. Examine the frequency table from rounds 1 and 2. Do you see a pattern?

3. How is probability used in this game?

4. If you only rolled one die, would your outcome be the same?

III. Observations of Class Data.

1. Which sum was rolled the most? ______

2. Which sum was rolled the least? ______

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Extension: skittles probability: Theoretical vs. Experimental

Use the following chart to answer questions about the theoretical probability of rolling each sum
with two dice.

Have students create a list of all possible outcomes when rolling a pair
of dice.
Sum Theoretical
1. Which sum has the greatest probability of occurring? _7__ Probability

2. Which sum(s) has the lowest probability of occurring? _0, 1, 2 1/36

3 2/36
anything greater than 12___ 4 3/36
3. What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7? _6/36_ 5 4/36
6 5/36
4. Make a list of all the possible combinations that would create 7 6/36
a sum of 7. 8 5/36
(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1) 9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
5. What is the relationship between your answer to #3 and the list you
created in #4?
There are 6 combinations that result in a sum of 7. 6 is the numerator in the
theoretical probability.

Use the class data to complete the following chart.

6. Copy the class frequency information from Sum Class Experimental
the chart on the board. Frequency Probability
2
7. How many total rolls did the class perform? 3
Record this at the bottom of the 2nd column. 4
5
6
8. Based on this information, calculate the
7
experimental probability of rolling each sum. 8
Record this on your chart. 9
10
9. According to the experimental probability, 11
which sum has the greatest chance of 12
occurring? TOTAL:

10. Is your answer to #9 different from your answer to #1? If so, why do you think this
happened?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

11. According to the experimental probability, which sum has the lowest chance of occurring?

12. Is your answer to #11 different than your answer to #2? If so, why do you think this
happened?

Based on what you learned during this activity, answer the following questions.
13. How would you define theoretical probability?

14. How would you define experimental probability?

15. What is the difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

SKITTLES CUTOUTS

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

SKITTLES PLAYBOARD

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

SKITTLES PROBABILITY- Part 1: Play the Game!

TASK DIRECTIONS 8. Individually answer “Round 2
Questions”.
1. Gather materials. Each group needs a 9. Record your frequencies on the class
playboard number line, a pair of dice, number line.
and Skittles counters. Each player gets 10. Record observations of the class data.
12 Skittles counters. Make sure each Sum Frequency Frequency Total
player has a different color. Round 1 Round 2 Frequency
2. Place your predications. Each player (Round 1 +
Round 2)
places all 12 counters along the number
0
line. You may place them anywhere
you from 0 to 13. 1
3. Choose a recorder. The recorder will
keep track of the frequency of the rolls. 2
Every time your team rolls the dice and
a sum is found, record a tally mark. 3
4. Play Round 1. Player 1 rolls the dice.
Together, determine the sum of the 4
numbers that appear on the face of the
dice. Record the sum on the frequency 5
table. If a player has a counter on that
6
number, s/he takes one counter off the
board. If there are no counters on that
7
number, record the sum on the
frequency table and then Player 2 rolls 8
the dice. Continue rolling the dice,
recording the sum, and removing 9
counters until a player has no remaining
counters on the board. Whoever 10
removes all of their counters from the
board first is the winner of round 1. 11
5. Individually answer “Round 1
Questions”. 12
6. Play Round 2. The rules and
13
procedures are the same as for Round 1.
Remember to keep track of your tally
marks.
7. Determine the total frequency for
each sum from rounds 1 and 2.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Skittles probability- Questions and Observations

I. Questions after Round 1:
1. Is the game fair? Explain your answer.

2. How did you decide where you would place the counters?

3. In round 2, will you place your counters differently?

II. Questions, after Round 2:

1. Did the changes in the distribution of the counters change your outcome?

2. Examine the frequency table from rounds 1 and 2. Do you see a pattern?

3. How is probability used in this game?

4. If you only rolled one die, would your outcome be the same?

III. Observations of Class Data.

3. Which sum was rolled the most? ______

4. Which sum was rolled the least? ______

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Skittles probability: Theoretical vs. Experimental

Use the following chart to answer questions about the theoretical probability of rolling each sum
with two dice.

1. Which sum has the greatest probability of occurring? ______ Sum Theoretical
Probability
2. Which sum(s) has the lowest probability of occurring? ______
2 1/36
3. What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7? ______ 3 2/36
4. Make a list of all the possible combinations that would create 4 3/36
a sum of 7. 5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
5. What is the relationship between your answer to #3 and the list 8 5/36
you created in #4? 9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
Use the class data to complete the following chart.
6. Copy the class frequency information from Sum Class Experimental
the chart on the board. Frequency Probability
2
7. How many total rolls did the class perform? 3
Record this at the bottom of the 2nd column. 4
5
6
8. Based on this information, calculate the
7
experimental probability of rolling each 8
sum. Record this on your chart. 9
10
9. According to the experimental probability, 11
which sum has the greatest chance of 12
occurring? TOTAL:

10. Is your answer to #9 different from your answer to #1? If so, why do you think this
happened?

11. According to the experimental probability, which sum has the lowest chance of
occurring?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

12. Is your answer to #11 different than your answer to #2? If so, why do you think this
happened?

Based on what you learned during this activity, answer the following questions.
13. How would you define theoretical probability?

14. How would you define experimental probability?

15. What is the difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

What’s Your Outcome? Back to table

Source: 6th Grade Framework Unit 10. Originally from Mathematics
Achievement Partnership: Achieve, Inc.

In this task, students will compare probabilities using arrays.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.

MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all

outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

3. Reason abstractly and quantitatively

7. Look for and make use of structure

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students often expect the theoretical and experimental probabilities of the same data to match.
By providing multiple opportunities for students to experience simulations of situations in order
to find and compare the experimental probability to the theoretical probability, students discover
that rarely are those probabilities the same. Students often expect that simulations will result in
all of the possibilities. All possibilities may occur in a simulation, but not necessarily.
Theoretical probability does use all possibilities. Note examples in simulations when some
possibilities are not shown.
Suggestions: Whether doing simulations, experiments, or theoretical probability, it is important
for students to use many models (lists, area models, tree diagrams) and to explicitly discuss
developing conceptions and misconceptions.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Suggestions: In addition to being more interesting, teaching probability in this way allows
students to understand important concepts that have many real-world implications.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:

• What factors determine the likelihood that an event will occur?

• How can the likelihood that an event will occur be represented?
• How are the outcomes of given events distinguished as possible?
• What methods can be used for listing all possible outcomes of an event?

MATERIALS:

• What’s Your Outcome Task Sheet

GROUPING
Partner/Small Group

TASK COMMENTS:
This task can be used to develop prior knowledge of the results of rolling a pair of dice prior to
the Number Cube Sums task. Also, it can be used to provide additional support for students who
struggled with the Number Cube Sums task. Students may want to create and use a two-way
table to organize their work and findings.

TASK DESCRIPTION:

Task Directions:

You roll a pair of fair six-sided dice.

a) What is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the uppermost faces of the dice will
be 6?

Solutions:

To find the probability of getting a sum of 6 when rolling two dice, we need to first identify the
total number of possible outcomes. Since both die are six-sided, the total number of possible
outcomes is 𝟔 × 𝟔 = 𝟑𝟔.

Now we need to identify which of the 36 outcomes have a sum of 6. Listing the outcomes as
ordered pairs, they are (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2) and (5, 1). Therefore, there are five
combinations with a sum of 6.

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Note: A two-way table may help students visualize the outcomes for tossing two dice.

Cube 1

2 3 4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
Cube 2

4 5 6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11
7 8 9 10 11 12
When calculating the probability of an event, the numerator is the number of favorable
outcomes and the denominator is the total number of possible outcomes.

Thus,
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝒂 𝒔𝒖𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝟔 𝟓
𝑷(𝒔𝒖𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝟔) = =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒘𝒉𝒆𝒏 𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒘𝒐 𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝟑𝟔

b) What is the probability that you will roll doubles?

Solution:

From part (a) we know that there are 36 possible outcomes.

There are six combinations in which doubles are rolled:
(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5) and (6, 6)

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GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Cube 1

1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
Cube 2

3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6

4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Hence,
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒃𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒊𝒏𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒅𝒐𝒖𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝟔 𝟏
𝑷(𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒅𝒐𝒖𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔) = = =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒘𝒉𝒆𝒏 𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒘𝒐 𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝟑𝟔 𝟔

c) Are “rolling a sum of 6” and “rolling doubles” equally likely events?

Solution:

𝟓 𝟔
“Rolling a sum of 6” and “rolling doubles” are not equally likely events because ≠ .
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔

DIFFERENTIATION
Extension
• Give students different events like spinning a spinner and rolling a number cube and
determine the similarities and difference of arrays

Intervention
• Rather than rolling two number cubes, use a spinner with four different sections and 16
outcomes
• Fill in parts of the array

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

What’s Your Outcome?

This task is from Mathematics Achievement Partnership: Achieve, Inc.

Part 1
You roll a pair of fair six-sided number cube and find the sum of the uppermost
faces.
1. What are all of the possible outcomes? Fill in the chart below.

Cube 1
Cube 2

2. How many total outcomes are possible?

3. What is the probability of rolling a sum of 6?

4. What sums have the smallest probability?

Part Two
Suppose you roll two number cubes.
5. Make a table to show all of the possible outcomes (use an another piece of paper)

6. What is the probability that you will roll doubles?

7. Are “rolling a sum of 6” and “rolling doubles” equally likely events? Justify your
answer.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Number Cube Sums Back to task table

Source: 8th Grade GPS Unit 1
In this task, students will use probability to determine if a game is worth playing.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.
MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing
frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create
a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type
A blood?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure
8. Look for an express regularity in repeated reasoning

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students commonly think that a probability should play out in the short term (Law of small
numbers) without realizing that the larger the number of trials, the more confident you can be
that the data reflect the larger population. (Law of large numbers).
Students often expect the theoretical and experimental probabilities of the same data to match.
By providing multiple opportunities for students to experience simulations of situations in order
to find and compare the experimental probability to the theoretical probability, students discover
that rarely are those probabilities the same. Students often expect that simulations will result in
all of the possibilities. All possibilities may occur in a simulation, but not necessarily.
Theoretical probability does use all possibilities. Note examples in simulations when some
possibilities are not shown.
Suggestions: Whether doing simulations, experiments, or theoretical probability, it is important
for students to use many models (lists, area models, tree diagrams) and to explicitly discuss
developing conceptions and misconceptions.
Suggestions: In addition to being more interesting, teaching probability in this way allows
students to understand important concepts that have many real-world implications.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:

• How are theoretical probabilities used to make predictions or decisions?

• How is the relationship between the probability of an event and its complement event useful
in solving problems?
• How can I use probability to determine if a game is worth playing or to figure my chances of
winning the lottery?

MATERIALS:

• number cubes
• (optional) TI-83 or TI-84 graphing calculators or computer

GROUPING
Individual/Partners
TASK DESCRIPTION

Students may use dice or other technology to complete the activity. When using the TI-83 or TI-
84 graphing calculator, students can use the app ‘Probability Simulator’. Students may also use
computer sites such as http://www.random.org/dice/?num=2 or
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/ExpProbability/ .

Once the task is introduced to the students, encourage students to express their opinions about if
they would want to play this game. Should they need prompting, you may question them to

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

discover that forming a list of the information they need would be helpful in order to determine
for sure whether the game is one they would prefer to play.

It is probably a good idea to have students work in pairs to find the necessary information.

Stress to the students that information needs to be recorded in an organized way. Students
will need to know the possible sums and the probability of getting each sum. A suggestion
for this task may be to give a pair of different colored dice or number cubes. Note that there
are 36 possible outcomes and that getting 1 on Cube 1 and 2 on Cube 2 is different from
getting 2 on Cube 1 and 1 on Cube 2.

DISCUSSION SUGGESTION:
Lead a class discussion regarding whether the outcome of Cube 1 has an impact on the
outcome of Cube 2. Students should realize that the outcome of one event does not affect
the outcome of the other event; therefore, the events are independent.

Students should determine and record the frequencies (i.e., the number of times/ways each
occurs) and probabilities after they have found the possible sums.

POSSIBLE GUIDING QUESTIONS:

• What is the smallest possible sum?
• Could we get a sum of 1?
• What is the largest possible sum?
• How many ways can the sum occur?

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:
• Would you want to play the game that your friend suggested?
• Who is more likely to win?
• How would you create a game that you would want to play?

TASK DIRECTIONS:

Suppose that a friend wants to play a game with you. She says, “Let’s roll two number cubes 10
times and find the sum of each roll. If the sum is 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, or 12, you win. If the sum is
5, 6, 7, 8, or 9, I win.”

A. Would you want to play this game? Why or why not?

B. Roll the number cubes 10 times and record the sums. What did you find?

C. Repeat the game 5 more times (roll 5 more times). Were the results the same each time?

D. If you were to create a bar chart of the number of times each sum occurred, what would
that bar chart look like?

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

E. What do you think it would look like if you repeated the game 100 times?

F. Who would win most often? Explain why.

G. Show all possible sums. How many are there?

H. Would you change the rules of the game in some way that makes it equally likely for
Player A or Player B to win?

Comments:

The table below represents one way to organize the sums from rolling 2 dice.

Solutions:

A. Students should observe that the sums are not equally likely to occur and be able to
articulate why that is the case. (There are more combinations that result in a sum of 6 than in
a sum of 2, etc.)

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

B and C. One way of organizing the results is given below. The table represents 50 rolls.

Possible Possible
Frequency Total Frequency Total
Sum Sum
1 Not possible 7 9
2 0 0 8 7
3 3 9 9

4 4 10 4
5 4 11 0 0
6 8 12 2

D. Bar charts to display the data may look similar to the one below.

E. The results might be similar. As the dice are rolled more times, the sums of 6, 7, and 8
should be rolled more.

F. Probably the sum of 7- my friend would win more.

G. Refer to tables above.

H. Yes, I would change the rules. My sums: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 My friend: 12, 11, 10, 9, 8. The
sum of 7 would be considered a tie.

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

DIFFERENTIATION

Extension:
• Have students actually create a game they feel that they would want to play. Also,
have students explain why their friends would want to play the game.

Intervention
• Give students arrays with possible outcomes prior to completing the task and discuss any
patterns that exist within the array

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Number Cube Sums

Suppose that a friend, Kia, wants to play a game with you. She says, “Let’s roll two number
cubes 10 times and find the sum of each roll. If the sum is 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, or 12, you win. If
the sum is 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9, I win.”

A. Would you want to play this game? Why or why not?

B. Roll the number cubes 10 times and record the sums. What are the results of rolling the
number cubes 10 times? Record the frequency below:
Possible Possible
Frequency Total Frequency Total
Sum Sum
1 7
2 8
3 9
4 10
5 11
6 12
C. Based upon your results, what did you find?

D. Repeat the game 5 more times (roll 5 more times) and record your results in a frequency
table. Were the results the same each time?

E. Create a bar chart for the number of times each sum occurred. Are there any patterns?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Possible Sums

F. What do you think it would look like if you repeated the game 100 times?

G. Who would win most often, you or Kia? Explain why.

H. Show all possible sums. How many are there?

I. Would you change the rules of the game in some way that makes it equally likely for
Player A or Player B to win?

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Dice Game Task Back to task table

In this task, students will demonstrate their understanding of theoretical and experimental
probability.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create
a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type
A blood?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them

3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others
4. Model with mathematics
5. Use appropriate tools strategically

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students often expect the theoretical and experimental probabilities of the same data to match.
By providing multiple opportunities for students to experience simulations of situations in order
to find and compare the experimental probability to the theoretical probability, students discover
that rarely are those probabilities the same. Students often expect that simulations will result in

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

July 2019  Page 74 of 113
 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

all of the possibilities. All possibilities may occur in a simulation, but not necessarily.
Theoretical probability does use all possibilities. Note examples in simulations when some
possibilities are not shown.
Suggestions: Whether doing simulations, experiments, or theoretical probability, it is important
for students to use many models (lists, area models, tree diagrams) and to explicitly discuss
developing conceptions and misconceptions.
Suggestions: In addition to being more interesting, teaching probability in this way allows
students to understand important concepts that have many real-world implications.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:

• How can you determine the likelihood that an event will occur?
• How can you represent the likelihood of an event occurring?
• How are the outcomes of given events distinguished as possible?
• What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
• What is the significance of a large number of trials?

TASK DESCRIPTION

Students may use dice or other technology to complete the activity. When using the TI-83 or TI-
84 graphing calculator, students can use the app ‘Probability Simulator’. Students may also use
computer sites such as http://www.random.org/dice/?num=2 or
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/ExpProbability/ or download a Random Generator
app https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/random-number-generator-+/id634324938?mt=8.

The students should have a good understanding of experimental and theoretical probability
before beginning this task.

Technology could be used again in allowing the students to prepare their displays. The following
spreadsheet function may be used to simulate rolling dice (six equally likely outcomes):

=INT(RAND()*6)+1
Formula Description (result)
=RAND()*6 Returns a number between 0 and 6
=INT(RAND()*6) Returns an integer from the set 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
=INT(RAND()*6)+1 Returns values of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Dice Game Task

Michael, Janet, Kareta, and Chan are playing a game. Each person has chosen two special
numbers between 2 and 12. Here are the numbers they chose:

Michael: 7 and 8
Janet: 5 and 10
Kareta: 11 and 12
Chan: 4 and 9

They each take turns rolling a pair of dice. Each person receives 8 points whenever the total
number of dots on the two dice is equal to one of their special numbers. The winner is the first
person to get more than 100 points.

1. Who do you think will win and why?

2. Play the game. Roll a pair of dice over and over again. Every time you roll, record the total of
the dice and the number of points scored for each of the 4 people. Stop rolling when someone
wins (makes more than 100 points). Who wins? Who would you expect to win if you played
the game again? Why?
3. Make a graph or some display showing the experimental probabilities of rolling each total
from 2 to 12. Using this information, for each person, Michael, Janet, Kareta, and Chan,
calculate the experimental probability of rolling one of their special numbers.
4. Make another display, like the one you did in part 3, showing the theoretical probabilities of
rolling each total from 2 to 12. Using this information, for each person, Michael, Janet,
Kareta, and Chan, calculate the theoretical probability of rolling one of their special numbers.
5. Using the displays you made in part 3 and 4, compare theoretical probabilities with
experimental probabilities. Are they different? How? Can you explain the reason for these
differences?
6. What would you expect if you played the game again? Why?

Solutions:

A table can be created to determine the theoretical probabilities of the sum of the die:

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Roll 1

2 3 4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
Roll 2

4 5 6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10 11
7 8 9 10 11 12
Theoretical Probabilities of having a sum from 2- 12:

Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
𝟐 𝟑 𝟒 𝟔 𝟒 𝟑 𝟐
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
𝟏 𝟓 𝟓 𝟏
Probability or or or or or or or
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
𝟏𝟖 𝟏𝟐 𝟗 𝟔 𝟗 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟖

𝟏𝟏 𝟕
Therefore, of each roll of the dice Michael has a chance of gaining points; Janet has a
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
𝟑 𝟕
chance of gaining points, Kareta has a chance of gaining points; and Chan has a chance
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
of gaining points. Thus, Michael has the best chance of winning the game.

For questions 2 through 6, the students can simulate rolling the dice using a spreadsheet
program or a graphing calculator and then graph their data. The graphs will depend upon
their simulations.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

July 2019  Page 77 of 113
 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Dice Game

Michael, Janet, Kareta, and Chan are playing a game. Each person has chosen two special
numbers between 2 and 12. Here are the numbers they chose:

Michael: 7 and 8
Janet: 5 and 10
Kareta: 11 and 12
Chan: 4 and 9

They each take turns rolling a pair of dice. Each person receives 8 points whenever the total
number of dots on the two dice is equal to one of their special numbers. The winner is the first
person to get more than 100 points.

1. Play the game. Roll a pair of dice over and over again. Every time you roll, record the total of
the dice and the number of points scored for each of the 4 people. Stop rolling when someone
wins (makes more than 100 points). Who wins? Who would you expect to win if you played the
game again? Why?

2. Make a graph or some display showing the experimental probabilities of rolling each total
from 2 to 12. Using this information, for each person, Michael, Janet, Kareta, and Chan,
calculate the experimental probability of rolling one of their special numbers.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

3. Make another display, like the one you did in part 3, showing the theoretical probabilities of
rolling each total from 2 to 12. Using this information, for each person, Michael, Janet, Kareta,
and Chan, calculate the theoretical probability of rolling one of their special numbers.

4. Using the displays you made in part 3 and 4, compare theoretical probabilities with
experimental probabilities. Are they different? How? Can you explain the reason for these
differences?

5. What would you expect if you played the game again? Why?

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Spinner Bingo (Short Cycle Task) Back to task table

In this task, students will determine which bingo card has the greatest probability of winning.

Source: Balanced Assessment Materials from Mathematics Assessment Project

http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1169

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.
MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all
outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will and heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open‐
end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the
observed frequencies?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure.
8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.
ESSENTIAL QUESTION

• How do I determine the probability of a given event using two spinners?

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

July 2019  Page 80 of 113
 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

TASK COMMENTS:

Tasks and lessons from the Mathematics Assessment Project are specifically designed to help
teachers effectively formatively assess their students. The way the tasks and lessons are designed
gives the teacher a clear understanding of what the students are able to do and not do. Within the
lesson, teachers will find suggestions and question prompts that will help guide students towards
understanding. For more information access the MAP website:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/background.php?subpage=summative

The task, Spinner Bingo, is a Mathematics Assessment Project Assessment Task that can be
found at the website:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/tasks.php?taskid=393&subpage=expert

The PDF version of the task can be found at the link below:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1169

The scoring rubric can be found at the following link:

http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1170

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

July 2019  Page 81 of 113
 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Card Game (Short Cycle Task) Back to task table

In this task, students will use probability to make predictions about a card game.

Source: Balanced Assessment Materials from Mathematics Assessment Project

http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1078

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.

MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all

outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS
• How do I determine the probability of a given event?
• How do I make predictions based on the laws of probability?

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

July 2019  Page 82 of 113
 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

TASK COMMENTS

Tasks and lessons from the Mathematics Assessment Project are specifically designed to help
teachers effectively formatively assess their students. The way the tasks and lessons are designed
gives the teacher a clear understanding of what the students are able to do and not do. Within the
lesson, teachers will find suggestions and question prompts that will help guide students towards
understanding. For more information access the MAP website:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/background.php?subpage=summative

The task, Card Game, is a Mathematics Assessment Project Assessment Task that can be found
at the website:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/tasks.php?taskid=367&subpage=apprentice

The PDF version of the task can be found at the link below:
http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1078

The scoring rubric can be found at the following link:

http://www.map.mathshell.org/materials/download.php?fileid=1079

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Is It Fair? Back to task table

Adapted from 8th Grade GPS Unit 1 Culminating Task: “Explorations with Chance”
In this lesson, students analyze the fairness of certain games by examining the probabilities of
the outcomes. The explorations provide opportunities to predict results, play the games, and
calculate probabilities.

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create
a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type
A blood?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS
Students often expect the theoretical and experimental probabilities of the same data to match.
By providing multiple opportunities for students to experience simulations of situations in order
to find and compare the experimental probability to the theoretical probability, students discover
that rarely are those probabilities the same. Students often expect that simulations will result in
all of the possibilities. All possibilities may occur in a simulation, but not necessarily.
Theoretical probability does use all possibilities. Note examples in simulations when some
possibilities are not shown.
Suggestions: Whether doing simulations, experiments, or theoretical probability, it is important
for students to use many models (lists, area models, tree diagrams) and to explicitly discuss
developing conceptions and misconceptions.
Suggestions: In addition to being more interesting, teaching probability in this way allows
students to understand important concepts that have many real-world implications.

ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:

• How do I determine a sample space?

• How can you represent the likelihood of an event occurring?
• How are theoretical probabilities used to make predictions or decisions?
• How can I use probability to determine if a game is worth playing or to figure my
chances of winning a lottery?

MATERIALS

• colored tiles or counters

o Red on both sides
o Red on one side and yellow on the other
*Note: Construction paper is an alternative material that can be used
• small cups
• Is It Fair Student Task Sheet

GROUPING

Partner/Small Group

TASK COMMENTS:

Students should have had prior experiences with simple probability investigations, including
flipping coins, drawing items from a set, and making tree diagrams. They should understand
that the probability of an event is the ratio of the number of successful outcomes to the
number of possible outcomes.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

This lesson was adapted from “Activities: Explorations with Chance” [by Dr. Larry
Hatfield], which appeared in the April 1992 issue of the Mathematics Teacher [published by
NCTM, Reston, VA].
(This excerpt is from page 1 of http://illuminations.nctm.org/LessonDetail.aspx?id=L290 , with
bracketed information added. This website provides an instructional plan for teachers, as well as
selected solutions to the activities.)
A classroom video and additional resources for this task are available at
http://gadoe.georgiastandards.org/mathframework.aspx?PageReq=MathFair#classroom54
featuring Cherie Long, 8th grade teacher at Ola Middle School in Henry County.
TASK DESCRIPTION

Prior to beginning the task, you may want to discuss with students fair and unfair games. An
example to show the students might be a spinner that is not equally divided or refer back to the
Number Cube Sums Learning Task in this unit. Remind students of the importance of recording a
sample space by creating a table or tree diagram to determine outcomes.

Guiding or Discussion Questions:

1. What does it mean for something to be fair?

Equal, same for everyone.

2. What are some situations in real life that we try to make things “fair” for all?
Weight classes in wrestling, trial by a jury of peers, handicap parking spaces, laws for
equal pay, scholarships, etc…

3. What are some situations in school that you think are “fair” or “not fair”?
Grades in school, rules at school, etc...

4. Does anyone have a way to make the unfair situations fair?

Even the playing field- have students give examples.

5. What does adding another chip do the outcome of the game? Compare adding the same
color and opposite color chip.
Game one and Game two: the game remains the same. The outcome shifts in game
three and four.

Possible Suggestions to Change Results:

One possibility is to award player A three points each time all the colors are different while still
allowing player B one point for tossing two identical colors. Another possibility is to let stand
player A's method of scoring and award player B a point only when two of one color land face
up.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

TASK DIRECTIONS:
[This task was created from the activity sheet found at http://illuminations.nctm.org/lessons/9-
12/explorations/ExplorationsWithChance-AS-IsItFair.pdf.]

GAME 1

Directions: Put a red-red and a red-yellow chip in a cup. Two players will take turns shaking
and tossing the chips. The first player (Player A) will score a point if BOTH chips land with the
red side up. The second player (Player B) will score a point if ONE OF EACH color lands up.
The first player with 10 points wins the game.

Answer the following questions regarding this game:

a) Which player do you predict will win (before you play the game?)
b) Is this game fair? Justify your response.
c) List all possible outcomes or drawing a tree diagram.
d) What is the theoretical chance of winning for each player?
e) Get materials and complete 5 games, recording your results each time.
f) Calculate the relative frequency (OR experimental probability) of each player’s winning.
g) Were your outcomes the same as those listed in c? Why do you think this happened?
h) Rethink your original question based on these trials. Is this game fair?

Solution:
Game 1: Assume that the chips are r1-r2 and r1-y2. The outcomes are r1-r1, r1-y2, r2-r1, and
r2-y2 (see figure 1). Thus, each player has the same chance (1/2) of scoring.

𝑦2 𝑦2

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

GAME 2

Directions: Now add another red-red chip to the cup. In this game, if all three chips show red,
Player A scores a point; otherwise, Player B scores a point.

Answer the following questions regarding this game:

• How is this game similar to and different from game 1?

• Is this game fair? Justify your response.
• Is this game fairer than game 1? Explain your reasoning.
• Which player do you predict will win (before you play the game?)
• Get materials and complete 5 games, recording your results each time.
• Calculate the relative frequency of each player’s winning.
• Rethink your original question based on these trials. Is this game fair?
• Analyze the game by listing all possible outcomes or drawing a tree diagram.
• What is the theoretical chance of winning for each player?
• Were your outcomes the same? Why do you think this happened?

Solution:

Game 2: By adding a third chip, eight outcomes result: r1-r1-r1, r1-r1-r2, r1-y2-r1, r1-y2-r2,
r2-r1-r1, r2-r1-r2, r2-y2-r1, and r2-y2-r2. Four outcomes are all red, so again each player
could score half the time.

GAME 3

Directions: Suppose that a red-red chip is replaced by a second red-yellow chip. Again, if all
three chips show red, Player A scores a point; otherwise, Player B scores a point.
Answer the following questions regarding this game:

• How does replacing one of the red-red chips with a second red-yellow chip change the
outcomes?
• Is Game 3 fair? Justify your response.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Solution:

Game 3. The eight outcomes are r1-r1-r1, r1-r1-y2, r1-y2-r1, r1-y2-y2, r2-r1-r1, r2-r1-y2, r2-
y2-r1, and r2-y2-y2. The probability that player A will score is 2/8, so the game is unfair.

GAME 4

Directions: Try this game with three chips—red-blue, red-yellow, and blue-yellow. Player A
scores if all three chips are different colors; Player B scores a point if two chips match.

• Predict the fairness of this game. Discuss your reasons before playing.
• Play and record at least five games.
• Find the relative frequency of each player’s winning to decide if the game appears to be
fair. How many outcomes are possible for this game? Make a tree diagram to help find
the theoretical probability for each player.
• If this game is not fair, how would you change the scoring to make it fair?

Solution

Game 4. Only two outcomes show three different colors, so player A has only a 2/8 chance of
scoring; player B has a 6/8 chance of scoring.

DIFFERENTIATION
Extension
• Allow students to create their own game and evaluate its fairness
Intervention
• Use game one and two only; see game changes in Task Description

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Is It Fair?
[This task was created from the activity sheet found at http://illuminations.nctm.org/lessons/9-
12/explorations/ExplorationsWithChance-AS-IsItFair.pdf.]

GAME 1

Directions: Put a red-red and a red-yellow chip in a cup. Two players will take turns shaking
and tossing the chips. The first player (Player A) will score a point if BOTH chips land with the
red side up. The second player (Player B) will score a point if ONE OF EACH color lands up.
The first player with 10 points wins the game.

Answer the following questions regarding this game:

a) Which player do you predict will win (before you play the game?)

b) Is this game fair? Justify your response.

c) List all possible outcomes or drawing a tree diagram.

d) What is the theoretical chance of winning for each player?

e) Get materials and complete 5 games, recording your results each time.

f) Calculate the relative frequency (OR experimental probability) of each player’s winning.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

g) Were your outcomes the same as those listed in c? Why do you think this happened?

h) Rethink your original question based on these trials. Is this game fair?

GAME 2

Directions: Now add another red-red chip to the cup. In this game, if all three chips show red,
Player A scores a point; otherwise, Player B scores a point.

Answer the following questions regarding this game:

• How is this game similar to and different from game 1?

• Is this game fair? Justify your response.

• Is this game fairer than game 1? Explain your reasoning.

• Which player do you predict will win (before you play the game?)

• Get materials and complete 5 games, recording your results each time.

• Calculate the relative frequency of each player’s winning.

• Rethink your original question based on these trials. Is this game fair?

• Analyze the game by listing all possible outcomes or drawing a tree diagram.

• What is the theoretical chance of winning for each player?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

• Were your outcomes the same? Why do you think this happened?

GAME 3

Directions: Suppose that a red-red chip is replaced by a second red-yellow chip. Again, if all
three chips show red, Player A scores a point; otherwise, Player B scores a point.
Answer the following questions regarding this game:

• How does replacing one of the red-red chips with a second red-yellow chip change the
outcomes?

• Is Game 3 fair? Justify your response.

GAME 4

Directions: Try this game with three chips—red-blue, red-yellow, and blue-yellow. Player A
scores if all three chips are different colors; Player B scores a point if two chips match.

• Predict the fairness of this game. Discuss your reasons before playing.

• Play and record at least five games.

• Find the relative frequency of each player’s winning to decide if the game appears to be
fair. How many outcomes are possible for this game? Make a tree diagram to help find
the theoretical probability for each player.

• If this game is not fair, how would you change the scoring to make it fair?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Designing Simulations Back to task table

Source: Adapted from resources from Maryland Department of Education

http://mdk12.org/instruction/clg/algebra_data_analysis/goal3.html

Students will use random number generators to simulate and model probability situations.
STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT:

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.
MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all
outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.

MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create a
simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A
blood?
STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS

Students commonly think that a probability should play out in the short term (Law of small
numbers) without realizing that the larger the number of trials, the more confident you can be
that the data reflect the larger population. (Law of large numbers).
Students often expect the theoretical and experimental probabilities of the same data to match.
By providing multiple opportunities for students to experience simulations of situations in order
to find and compare the experimental probability to the theoretical probability, students discover
that rarely are those probabilities the same. Students often expect that simulations will result in
all of the possibilities. All possibilities may occur in a simulation, but not necessarily.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Theoretical probability does use all possibilities. Note examples in simulations when some
possibilities are not shown.
ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:

• How do I determine a sample space?

• How can you represent the likelihood of an event occurring?
• How can probability be used to make predictions or decisions?
• How can you design a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events?

MATERIALS:

• Designing Simulations Student Task Sheet

• Calculator with random number generator or probability simulator or a computer
TASK COMMENTS:

Simulations are often conducted in real-world applications because it is too dangerous, complex,
or expensive to manipulate the real situation. To see what is likely to happen in the real event, a
model must be designed that has the same probabilities as the real situation.

Guide to Conducting a Simulation

1. Identify key components and assumptions of the problem.
2. Select a random device for the key components.
3. Define a trial.
4. Conduct a large number of trials and record the information.
5. Use the data to draw conclusions

Possible random devices: spinners, coins, two-colored chips, dice, set of cards, random number
generators on simple and graphing calculators, tables of random digits, or computer programs.
Simulations information referenced from:
Van de Walle, J.A., Karp, K.S., Bay-Williams, J.M. (2010). Elementary and middle school
mathematics: Teaching developmentally,7th ed. (pp. 468-470). Boston: MA: Allyn &
Bacon.

TASK DESCRIPTION

Prior to completing the task, students will need a mini-lesson about how to conduct a simulation
and the purpose for conducting simulations. Other resources for simulations may be found at:
http://www.mathsonline.co.uk/nonmembers/resource/prob/.

The following is an example of a lesson that could be used to introduce the concept.

Opening:
On average, a basketball player makes half of the foul shots attempted in each game. Suppose
there were twelve foul shots in a game. Describe how you would conduct on trial of a simulation

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

that models the results of the foul shots. How could we “create” a way to simulate a basketball
game? Here are some ways that we can simulate the basketball game and the players 12 foul
shots. Have a variety of material for students to choose from and as a group, ask students to
create a way to simulate the foul shots. Using your simulation run 12 trials and record your
results. Below are listed some possible ideas for how to simulate the experiment.

• Flip a coin 12 times; let heads represent making the shot and tails represent missing the
shot.
• Create a spinner with 2 equal spaces with one side representing making the shot and the
other represent missing the shot.
• Put the numbers 1 and 2 on a slip of paper. Draw a slip of paper 12 times and record
your results.

Creating a simulation using a random number generator:

𝟏
What is the probability of making a foul shot?
𝟐

If you had the numbers 00-99, how many of those would represent making the shot? 00-49
would be making a shot and 50-99 would be missing the shot.

Using the random number generator below, run through 12 trials and record your results.

In order to use the random number generator, you need to find two digit numbers and record
them. You need a total of 12 trials. The first 12 pairs are:
29 83 37 55 11 91 44 82 84 68 31 66
Looking at this list how many of these numbers fall between 00 and 49? 5
How many numbers fall between 50 and 99? 7
𝟓
Based on this simulation, the probability of making the shot is .
𝟏𝟐
• Use the graphing calculator to simulate shooting 12 shots. On the TI-83 and TI-84, select
the “Math” button. Next, select the “PRB” menu and choose “randInt”. On the home
screen, randInt( , should appear. Type in the following: randInt(1,2,12). This will
generate 12 random numbers between 1 and 2 inclusive. To roll again, just press “enter,”
and 12 new random numbers between 1 and 2 will appear.
• Use a random number generator app https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/random-number-
generator-+/id634324938?mt=8

Let’s try another scenario:

Suppose the basketball player makes 2/3 of the foul shots. Describe how you would conduct one
trial of a simulation that models the results of the twelve foul shots.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Solution:
Possible Simulations:
• Create a spinner where two thirds is one color and one third is another color.
• Put three slips of paper in a cup. One slip needs to have a one on it and the other two
can have a two.

Simulation using a random number generator:

00-32 would represent missing the shot 33-99 would represent making the shot

Use the same random number generator for the simulation. We can use a different line. If
you use line 3 the first 12 numbers would be:

62 09 39 69 98 47 78 11 06 75 07 71

Based on your 12 trials, how many numbers are between 00 and 32? 4
How many are between 33 and 99? 8
𝟖 𝟐
The probability of making the shot within the 12 trials would be =
𝟏𝟐 𝟑

With practice the basketball player now makes 75% of her foul shot attempts. Suppose she
attempts 20 foul shots in a game. Ask students the following problems. Use mathematics to
justify your answers to the questions below.
a) Could you use a coin to simulate the attempted foul shots?

Solution:
No. A coin has only 2 equally outcomes.

b) Could you use a six-sided number cube?

Solution:
Yes. Let ¾ of the numbers (1, 2, 3, & 4) represent making the shot and the other numbers (5
& 6) represent missing. Toss 20 times and record results.

c) Could you use a spinner? If so, what would it look like?

Solution:
Yes. The spinner could be divided into 4 sections with sections 1, 2, & 3 representing making
the shot and section 4 missing the shot. Spin the spinner 20 times.

d) Could you use a standard deck of 52 cards?

Solution:
Yes. Let ¾ of the suits (hearts, diamonds, & clubs) represent making the shot & the other suit
(spade) represent missing the shot. Draw 20 cards (one at a time with replacement) to
observer the outcome of each attempt.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

e) How many trials should be conducted to obtain reasonable results?

Solution:
Use mathematics to justify your answer.
(One hundred trials should be reasonable for this situation. In practice, the more critical the
situation, the more trials are preformed. For instance, more trials would need to be performed
for medical research than for a taste test on soda preference.)

TASK DIRECTIONS:

Describe how you would conduct one trial of a simulation model for each of the following
situations.

1. Based on his history, Stetson has an 80% chance of making a foul shot in a basketball
game. Suppose Stetson attempts 18 foul shots in a game. Use the random number
generator in order to determine the probability of making a shot in the 18 trials.

80% so 00-79 would be making the shot and 80-99 would mean missing the shot. Use any line
of the random number generator and figure out results for 18 trials. Based on your results,
write the number of favorable outcomes out of 18. Discuss why different groups may have
different results. You can take an average of the favorable outcomes in order to come up with
a class probability.

2. Based on her history, Mindy scores on 3/5 of her shots on goal in a field hockey game.
Suppose she attempts 8 shots on goal in a game. Describe how you could use drawing
numbers or cards to create a simulation and find the probability of scoring a goal in 8
attempts.

Solution:
You will need 5 digits, three of which will represent making a shot and the remaining two
digits will represent missing the shot. Draw 8 times and record the results. Create a
probability out of 8.

3. The Bumble Bees’ chance of winning a football game is 20%. Suppose they play 15
football games in a season. How could you use a spinner to create a simulation for this
situation. What would the probability of winning the game during the 15 game season be
based on your simulation?

Solution:
You will need a spinner that has one fifth colored one color and 4/5 colored a different color.
Spin the spinner 15 times and record your results. Write the probability out of 15.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

4. Based on his history, Anthony has a 77% chance of making a foul shot in a basketball
game. Suppose he makes 16 shots in a game. Create a simulation using the random
number generator in order to find the probability of making a foul shot out of the 16
shots.

Solution:
The numbers 00-76 would represent making the shot. The numbers 77-99 would represent
missing the shot. Record 16 pairs and count how many of those pairs fall between 00 and 76.
This will be the number of favorable outcomes out of 16.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Designing Simulations
On average, a basketball player makes half of the foul shots attempted in each game. Suppose
there were twelve foul shots in a game. Describe how you would conduct on trial of a simulation
that models the results of the foul shots. How could we “create” a way to simulate a basketball
game?

Creating a simulation using a random number generator:

What is the probability of making a foul shot?

If you had the numbers 00-99, how many of those would represent making the shot?

Using the random number generator below, run through 12 trials and record your results.

Let’s try another scenario:

Suppose the basketball player makes 2/3 of the foul shots. Describe how you would conduct one
trial of a simulation that models the results of the twelve foul shots.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Use the same random number generator for the simulation. We can use a different line. If
you use line 3 the first 12 numbers would be:

With practice the basketball player now makes 75% of her foul shot attempts. Suppose she
attempts 20 foul shots in a game. Ask students the following problems. Use mathematics to
justify your answers to the questions below.

Could you use a coin to simulate the attempted foul shots?

Could you use a six-sided number cube?

Could you use a spinner? If so, what would it look like?

Could you use a standard deck of 52 cards?

How many trials should be conducted to obtain reasonable results?

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Describe how you would conduct one trial of a simulation model for each of the following
situations.

1. Based on his history, Stetson has an 80% chance of making a foul shot in a basketball
game. Suppose Stetson attempts 18 foul shots in a game. Use the random number
generator in order to determine the probability of making a shot in the 18 trials.

2. Based on her history, Mindy scores on 3/5 of her shots on goal in a field hockey game.
Suppose she attempts 8 shots on goal in a game. Describe how you could use drawing
numbers or cards to create a simulation and find the probability of scoring a goal in 8
attempts.

3. The Bumble Bees’ chance of winning a football game is 20%. Suppose they play 15
football games in a season. How could you use a spinner to create a simulation for this
situation. What would the probability of winning the game during the 15 game season be
based on your simulation?

4. Based on his history, Anthony has a 77% chance of making a foul shot in a basketball
game. Suppose he makes 16 shots in a game. Create a simulation using the random
number generator in order to find the probability of making a foul shot out of the 16
shots.

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Conducting Simulations Back to task table

Note: Pre-requisite Task: Designing Simulations

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL CONTENT

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate
relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times,
predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.

MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all

outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?

STANDARDS FOR MATHEMATICAL PRACTICE

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them

2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS

Students commonly think that a probability should play out in the short term (law of small
numbers) without realizing that the larger the number of trials, the more confident you can be
that the data reflect the larger population. (law of large numbers).
Students often expect the theoretical and experimental probabilities of the same data to match.
By providing multiple opportunities for students to experience simulations of situations in order
to find and compare the experimental probability to the theoretical probability, students discover
that rarely are those probabilities the same. Students often expect that simulations will result in
all of the possibilities. All possibilities may occur in a simulation, but not necessarily.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Theoretical probability does use all possibilities. Note examples in simulations when some
possibilities are not shown.
ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS

• How do I determine a sample space?

• How can you represent the likelihood of an event occurring?
• How can probability be used to make predictions or decisions?
• How can you design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events?

MATERIALS

• Conducting Simulations Student Task sheet

• Materials for students to conduct simulations such as spinners, coins, two-colored chips,
dice, set of cards, random number generators on simple and graphing calculators, tables
of random digits, or computer programs.

TASK COMMENTS

Simulations are often conducted in real-world applications because it is too dangerous, complex,
or expensive to manipulate the real situation. To see what is likely to happen in the real event, a
model must be designed that has the same probabilities as the real situation.

Guide to Conducting a Simulation

1. Identify key components and assumptions of the problem.
2. Select a random device for the key components.
3. Define a trial.
4. Conduct a large number of trials and record the information.
5. Use the data to draw conclusions

Possible random devices: spinners, coins, two-colored chips, dice, set of cards, random number
generators on simple and graphing calculators, tables of random digits, or computer programs.
Simulations information referenced from:
Van de Walle, J.A., Karp, K.S., Bay-Williams, J.M. (2010). Elementary and middle school
mathematics: Teaching developmentally,7th ed. (pp. 468-470). Boston: MA: Allyn &
Bacon.

INTRODUCTION
As an introduction to this culminating task, make sure that students have had experiences
designing simulations to represent real-life situations or scenarios. Keep in mind the guidelines
to conducting simulations that are mentioned in the Task Comments section of this task. If
possible, post these guidelines as reminders for students as they work through the task.
Remember, there may be more than one random device that students could use to conduct a
simulation.

Keep in mind the following guiding questions as you observe students completing the task:

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

• What key component is identified in this problem?

• How can the key component be represented by a random device?
• What random devices have you used in probability prior to this task?
• What represents a trial in this scenario?
• What does the data collected tell you about the scenario?
• What happens if we conduct several trials? How does this relate to theoretical
probability?

Possible Options for Task:

• Design the simulation for all of the situations and only conduct a portion of the
simulations to find the probability.
• Students select a certain number of the problems to complete, for example they may
select 4 out of the 8 problems to complete.
• Assign specific problems to different students, partners or small groups. Allow them to
present the random device used to simulate the situation, the results, and their final
conclusions.

TASK DIRECTIONS:
Design and conduct a simulation for the following situations.
Solutions:

Possible designs to conduct each simulation are included below. Each problem
consists of many choices for the design. Students should follow the steps outlined in
beginning of the task to complete the task.

1. Cole’s batting average is .350. What is the chance he will go hitless in a complete nine-
inning game?
Key component: getting a hit
Assumption: Probability of a hit for each at bat is 35%. Cole will get to bat four times in the
average game.
Simulation results & solution:
Solution:

Using a random number generator, you will need 100 digits, thirty-five of these numbers will
represent getting a hit, and the remaining will represent not getting a hit. Record your results
in groups of four. Out of those four outcomes how many represent getting a hit? Continue
for 10 trials (10 groups of 4) and record the information. Use the data to draw conclusions.

2. Krunch-a-Munch cereal packs one of five games in each box. About how many boxes
should you expect to buy before you get a complete set? What is the chance of getting a set
in eight or fewer boxes?

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Key component: getting one game.

Assumption: Each game has a 1/5 chance.
Trial: Use a 1/5 random device repeatedly until all five outcomes appear; the average length of a
trial answers the question.
Simulation results & solution:
Solution:

Use spinner divided into five equal sections with different the numbers on each section.
Repeatedly spin the spinner recording the results until all five numbers have been spun. How
many spins did it take before you saw all five numbers? This represents one trial. Continues
spinning and recording how long it takes to see all five. Complete at least five trials. Average
the lengths of the trials to answer the question. Use experimental probability to determine the
chance of getting a set in eight or fewer boxes.

3. In a true-or-false test, what is the probability of getting 8 out of 10 questions correct if you
randomly guess the answer? What if the test were multiple-choice with 4 choices?
Key component: getting the answer correct

Simulation results & solution:

Solution:

True-or-False: Use a coin, let heads represent a correct answer and tails represents an
incorrect answer. A trial consists of flipping a coin 10 times and counting how many times
you got heads. Do this at least 5 times to simulate “taking the test” five times. Out of those
five sets of results, how many times did you get 8 out of 10 heads?
Multiple-Choice with 4 Choices: Use a spinner divided into four equal sections. Let one
section represent a correct answer and the other three represent incorrect answers. A trial
would consist of spinning the spinner 10 times. Record how many times you got a correct
answer out of the 10. Run the 10 question trial at least 5 times. How many of those sets had 8
out of 10 correct?

4. In a group of five people, what is the chance that two were born in the same month?
Assumption: All 12 months are equally likely.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Simulation results & solution:

Solution:
Use a 12 sided die or have slips of paper numbered 1-12 and draw. Let each number represent
one of the twelve months. A trial would consist of rolling the die 5 times to represent the five
people and noting if two were born in the same month. Conduct at least 5 trials and record
the data in groups of five. Use the data to draw conclusions to answer the question using
experimental probability.

5. Suppose over many years of records, a river generates a spring flood about 40% of the
time. Based on the records, what is the chance that it will flood for at least three years in a
row sometime during the next five years?
Key component: flooding occurs 40% of the time
Simulation results & solution:
Solution:
Use 10 cards of a deck of cards, designate 4 cards to represent a flood and 6 cards to represent
a flood not occurring. A trial would consist of drawing 5 cards. Observe if at least three cards
in a row represent a flood. Record the results. Conduct at least 10 trials. Use the data to
draw conclusions to answer the question using experimental probability.

The Problems Below Can Be Used As An Extension Or If Students Need More Examples.

6. What is my chance of getting the correct answer to the next multiple choice question if I
make a guess among the five choices?
Key component: getting the correct answer out of five choices
Simulation results & solution:
Solution:

Use 10 cards out of a deck of cards, designate 4 cards to represent a flood and 6 cards to
represent a flood not occurring. A trial would consist of drawing 5 cards. Observe if at least
three cards in a row represent a flood or not. Record the results. Conduct a large number of
trials. Use the data to draw conclusions to answer the question using experimental
probability.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

7. If 40% of donors have type A blood, what is the probability that it will take at least 4
donors to find one with type A blood?
Tip: Use random digits as a simulation tool to approximate the answer to the question.
Simulation results & solution:
Solution:

Use a 10 sided die. Let the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4 represent donors with type A blood. The
other numbers represent donors with other blood types. A trial would consist of rolling the die
until the numbers for type A occur. Record the results of each roll for each trial together.
Conduct a large number of trials. Use the data to draw conclusions then answer the question
using experimental probability.
8. Write your own probability problem based upon the events in your life and determine the
answer based using a simulation.

Solution:
Answers will vary. Keep in mind the steps to conducting simulations and that they are
applicable to the situation or scenario in the problem.

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Conducting Simulations
(Problems selected from Van de Walle and Common Core Progressions)

Design and conduct a simulation for the following situations.

1. Cole’s batting average is .350. What is the chance he will go hitless in a complete nine-
inning game assuming he goes to bat 4 times during the game?
Simulation type:

Results from trial:

P(going hitless in a 9 inning game)

2. Krunch-a-Munch cereal packs one of five games in each box. About how many boxes
should you expect to buy before you get a complete set? What is the chance of getting a set
in eight boxes?
Simulation type:

Results from trial:

P(getting a set in 8 or fewer boxes)

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

3. In a true-or-false test, what is the probability of getting 8 out of 10 questions correct if you
randomly guess the answer? What if the test were multiple-choice with 4 choices?
Simulation Type for true/false:

Results from simulation:

Probability of getting 8 out of 10 correct:

Simulation type for 4 choices:

Results from simulation:

Probability of getting 8 out of 10 correct:

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

4. In a group of five people, what is the chance that two were born in the same month?
Simulation type:

Results from simulation:

P(two being born in the same month)

5. Suppose over many years of records, a river generates a spring flood about 40% of the
time. Based on the records, what is the chance that it will flood for at least three years in a
row sometime during the next five years?
Simulation type:

Results from simulation:

P(flooding for at least three years in a row)

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

Technology Resources
MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1
that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater
likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2
indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a
likely event.
http://nzmaths.co.nz/sites/default/files/curriculum/Level3StatisticsProbability.pdf
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/counting-probability
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/statements-about-probability
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/fair-games-0

MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance
process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the
approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number
cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not
exactly 200 times.
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/content-standards/7/SP/C/6/tasks
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/counting-probability
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/statements-about-probability
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/fair-games-0

MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain
possible sources of the discrepancy.
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/7.SP.C.7
http://nzmaths.co.nz/sites/default/files/curriculum/Level3StatisticsProbability.pdf
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/number-probability-1
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/fair-games-0

MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all

outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is
selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the
probability that a girl will be selected.
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/7.SP.C.7
http://nzmaths.co.nz/sites/default/files/curriculum/Level3StatisticsProbability.pdf
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/fair-games-0

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing

frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate
probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land
open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on
the observed frequencies?
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/7.SP.C.7
http://nzmaths.co.nz/sites/default/files/curriculum/Level3StatisticsProbability.pdf
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/fair-games-0

MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams,
and simulation.
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/content-standards/7/SP/C/8/tasks
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions

MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound
event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/content-standards/7/SP/C/8/tasks
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/counting-probability
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/probability-distributions
http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/fair-games-0

MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as
organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g.,
“rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/content-standards/7/SP/C/8/tasks
http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work

MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate
frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create
a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type
A blood?

http://nzmaths.co.nz/probability-units-work

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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 Georgia Department of Education
Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework
GSE Grade 7 • Unit 6

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
• http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/learningmath/data/session8/part_b/fair.html-- Fair
or Unfair? This site offers an interactive task for tossing coins. [It is the source of the
Heads Wins! task.]

• http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/learningmath/data/session8/part_b/outcomes.html--
Outcomes: This site uses an addition table to record sums of rolling 2 dice. The table can
be filled in interactively at this site.

• http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/learningmath/data/session8/part_b/finding.html --
Finding the Winner: This site gives the addition table with the sums to allow students to
count the ways Players A and B can win (given the conditions in the “Heads Wins!” task).
Extension: Change the rules of the game in some way that makes it equally likely for Player
A or Player B to win.

• http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/learningmath/data/session8/part_b/making.html --
Making a Probability Table: Uses the addition table from Finding the Winner to
construct a probability table of the outcomes and incorporates the complement rule for
probability. Extension problems: Use the probability table to determine the probability that
Player A will win (given the conditions in the “Heads Wins!” task). If you know the
probability that Player A wins, how could you use it to determine the probability that Player
B wins without adding the remaining values in the table?

• Probability Computer Games

http://www.nationalstemcentre.org.uk/elibrary/resource/2038/using-probability-computer-
games-s3

Mathematics  GSE Grade 7  Unit 6: Probability

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