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Software Development
Patterns and Antipatterns
 Software Development
Patterns and Antipatterns
Capers Jones
First edition published 2022
by CRC Press
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
and by CRC Press
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
© 2022 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
The right of Capers Jones to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him
in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author
and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the
consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the
copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright
holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright
material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any
future reprint.
Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted,
reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other
means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and
recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission
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For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, access
www.copyright.com or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood
Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. For works that are not available on CCC please
contact [email protected]
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks
and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
ISBN: 978-1-032-02912-2 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-01722-8 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-19312-8 (ebk)
DOI: 10.1201/9781003193128
Typeset in Garamond
by SPi Technologies India Pvt Ltd (Straive)
Contents
Appreciation and Acknowledgment
Preface
Biography
PART 1 WORST-CASE PATTERNS OF SOFTWARE
DEVELOPMENT
1 Challenges of Software Project Management
Improving Software Project Management Tools and
Training
Initial Education for New Project Managers
Continuing Education for Software Project
Managers
Guest Lectures from Visiting Experts (Remotely via
Zoom or Other Tools)
Acquisition and Use of Software Parametric
Estimation Tools
Acquisition and Use of Progress and Milestone
Tracking Tools
The Use of Formal Project Offices (PMOs) for
Applications >1,000 Function Points
Use and Measurement of Effective Quality Control
Methods
Elimination of Bad Metrics and Adoption of
Effective Software Metrics
Primary Software Metrics for High Precision
Supplemental Software Metrics for High Precision
 Commissioning Annual Software Benchmark
Studies
Formal Best Practice Analysis of Software Tools,
Methods, and Quality
Summary and Conclusions on Software Project
Management
Suggested Readings on Software Project Management
Suggested Web Sites
2 Wastage: Lost Time and Money Due to Poor
Software Quality
Introduction
Analyzing the Work Patterns of Software Engineers and
Programmers
Reuse of Certified Materials for Software Projects
Achieving Excellence in Software Quality Control
Excellent Quality Control
Average Quality Control
Poor Quality Control
Summary and Conclusions
3 Root Causes of Poor Software Quality
Introduction
Software Quality Education Curricula
References and Readings in Software Quality Control
4 Defenses Against Breach of Contract Litigation
Introduction
Problem 1: Estimating Errors and Estimate Rejection
Problem 2: Missing Defensible Objective Benchmarks
Problem 3: Rapidly Changing Requirements
 Problem 4: Poor Quality Control
Problem 5: Poor Software Milestone Tracking
Problem 6: Flawed Outsource Agreements that Omit
Key Topics
Summary and Observations Based on Breach of
Contract Litigation
Suggested Readings
Web Sites
Suggested Web Sites
5 The Mess of Software Metrics
Introduction
Defining Software Productivity
Defining Software Quality
Patterns of Successful Software Measurements and
Metrics
Successful Software Measurement and Metric Patterns
Function Points for Normalizing Productivity Data
Function Points for Normalizing Software Quality
Defect Potentials Based on all Defect Types
Defect Removal Efficiency (DRE) Based on All
Defect Types
Defect Removal Efficiency Including Inspections
and Static Analysis
Defect Removal Efficiency Based on 90 Days after
Release
Activity-Based Benchmarks for Development
Activity-Based Benchmarks for Maintenance
Cost of Quality (COQ) for Quality Economics
 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for Software
Economic Understanding
Needs for Future Metrics
Summary and Conclusions
Appendix A: Problems with Cost per Defect Metrics
Why Cost per Defect Penalizes Quality
Case A: Poor Quality
Case B: Good Quality
Case C: Zero Defects
Using Function Point Metrics for Defect Removal
Economics
The Value of Quality for Large Applications of
10,000 Function Points
Appendix B: Side-by-Side Comparisons of 79
Languages using LOC and Function Points
References and Readings
Books and monographs by Capers Jones
Monographs by Capers Jones 2012–2020 available
from Namcook Analytics LLC
Books by Other Authors
Software Benchmark Providers (listed in alphabetic
order)
6 Variations in Software Costs and Quality by
Application Size
Introduction
Summary and Conclusions
References and Readings
7 Advancing Software from a Craft to a Profession
Introduction
What Are the Indicators of a Profession?
Why Software Engineering in Not Yet a Profession
Topic 1: Reduce the Many Software Failures
Topic 2: Reduce Cost and Schedule Overruns
Topic 3: Improve Software Quality after
Deployment
Topic 4: Improve Today’s Low Software
Development Productivity and Long Schedules
Topic 5: Improve Poor Software Security and
Reduce Cyber-Attacks
Topic 6: Stop Using Inaccurate and Invalid Metrics
That Distort Reality
Topic 7: Adopt Accurate Metrics and Effective
Measurement Practices
Topic 8: Improve Inaccurate and Optimistic
Estimates before Starting Projects
Topic 9: Eliminate Inaccurate Status Tracking
Topic 10: Reduce High Maintenance Costs after
Deployment
Topic 11: Reduce or Eliminate Litigation from
Unhappy Clients
Topic 12: Improve Undergraduate and Graduate
Software Education
Topic 13: Improve Post-Graduate and On-the-Job
Software Education
Topic 14: Introduce Software Licensing and Board
Certification
 Topic 15: Move from Custom and Manual
Development to Standard Reusable Components
Topic 16: Develop Effective Methods for Working
at Home Due To Corona Virus
Summary and Conclusions on Software
Professionalism
References and Readings on Software and Selected
Texts on Medical Practice
PART 2 BEST-CASE PATTERNS OF SOFTWARE
DEVELOPMENT
8 Corporate Software Risk Reduction in a Fortune
500 Company
Introduction
A National Talent Search
Fact Finding and Software Assessments
Software Applications in Use
The Initial Report to the Chairman
Corporate Software Risk Factors Found by the Initial
Assessment
The Corporate Risk Reduction Strategy: Fix Quality
First
Four-Year Software Risk Reduction Targets
Creating a Software Engineering Laboratory
Education
Applied Technology
Advanced Technology
Measurements
Communications
 Administration
Results of the Corporate Risk Reduction Program
Cost Justifying a Corporate Risk Reduction Program
Cost Recovery on the Development Side
Cost Recovery on the Maintenance Side
Asset Value of a Library of Reusable Artifacts
Adding Value through Shorter Development
Schedules
Adding Value through Higher Revenues
Adding Value from Disaster Avoidance
Adding Value from Reduced Litigation Risk
Adding Value from Improved Staff and
Management Morale
Adding Value from Recruiting and Keeping Top-
Ranked Personnel
Adding Value from Customer Loyalty
Overall Value from Effective Process Improvements
Summary and Conclusions
Appendix A: Master List of 210 Corporate Software
Risks
References and Readings
9 Achieving Software Excellence
Introduction
Software Sizing, Estimating, and Project Tracking
Differences
Software Quality Differences for Best, Average, and
Poor Projects
Excellent Quality Control
 Average Quality Control
Poor Quality Control
Reuse of Certified Materials for Software Projects
Reusable Software Artifacts Circa 2019
Software Methodologies
Quantifying Software Excellence
The Metaphor of Technical Debt
Stages in Achieving Software Excellence
Stage 1: Quantify Your Current Software Results
Stage 2: Begin to Adopt State of the Art Quality
Tools and Methods
Formal Sizing, Estimating, and Tracking
Defect Prevention
Pre-test Defect Removal
Test Defect Removal
Stage 3: Continuous Improvements Forever
Going Beyond Stage 3 into Formal Reuse Programs
Summary and Conclusions
References and Readings
10 Early Sizing and Estimating of Software Projects
Introduction
1950 to 1959
1960 to 1969
1970 to 1979
1980 to 1989
1990 to 1999
2000 to 2010
 The State of the Art of Sizing and Estimating from
2010 to 2020
Hazards of Older Metrics
Metrics Used with Function Point Analysis
Assignment Scope
Cost per Function Point
Defect Potentials
Defect Removal Efficiency (DRE)
Function Points per Month
Production Rate
Requirements Creep
Work Hours per Function Point
Application Sizing Using Pattern Matching
Early Risk Analysis
Lifetime Sizing with Software Risk Master™
Economic Modeling with Software Risk Master
The Future of Sizing and Estimating Software with
Function Points
Summary and Conclusions
References and Readings
Additional Literature
11 Optimizing Software Defect Removal Efficiency
(DRE)
Introduction
Summary and Conclusions
Introduction
Project Management Tools
Software Engineering Tools
 Software Maintenance Engineering Tools
Software Quality Assurance Tools
Software Testing and Static Analysis Tools
Software Documentation Tools
Commercial Tools
Performance of Lagging, Average, and Leading Projects
Average Software Projects
Leading Software Projects
Lagging Software Projects
A Taxonomy of Software Tool Classes
Project Management Tools
Software Engineering Tools
Software Maintenance Engineering Tools
Software Quality Assurance Tools
Software Testing and Static Analysis Tools
Software Documentation Tools
References and Readings
12 Tool Usage on Best-Case, Average, and Worst-
Case Projects
Project Management Tools on Lagging and Leading
Projects
Software Engineering Tools on Lagging and Leading
Projects
Software Maintenance Engineering Tools on Lagging
and Leading Projects
Software Quality Assurance Tools on Lagging and
Leading Projects
 Software Testing Tools on Lagging and Leading
Projects
Software Documentation Tools on Lagging and Leading
Projects
Overall Tool Differences between Laggards and Leaders
Summary and Conclusions
References and Readings
13 Geriatric Care for Aging Software
Introduction
What Is Software Maintenance?
Geriatric Problems of Aging Software
Metrics Problems with Small Maintenance Projects
Metrics Problems with ERP Maintenance
Best and Worst Practices in Software Maintenance
Methodologies That Are Maintenance-Strong and
Maintenance-Weak
Customer Support: A Major Maintenance
Weakness
Software Entropy and Total Cost of Ownership
Summary and Conclusions
References and Books by Capers Jones That Discuss
Software Maintenance
Books by Additional Authors
Readings on Software Maintenance
14 Function Points as a Universal Metric
Introduction
The Strengths of Function Point Metrics
The Weaknesses of Function Point Metrics
A New Method for High-Speed Function Point Analysis
A Short Summary of Pattern Matching
Increasing Executive Awareness of Function Points for
Economic Studies
Topic 1: Sizing Application Growth during Development
and After Release
Topic 2: Predicting Application Size in Multiple Metrics
Topic 3: Sizing All Known Types of Software Application
Topic 4: Function Points for Early Analysis of Software
Risks
Topic 5: Function Points for Activity-Based Sizing and
Cost Estimating
Topic 6: Function Points and Methodology Analysis
Topic 7: Function Points for Evaluating the Capability
Maturity Model (CMMI®)
Topic 8: Function Points for Software Quality Analysis
Topic 9: Function Points and Software Maintenance,
Enhancements, and Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
Topic 10: Function Points and Forensic Analysis of
Canceled Projects
Topic 11: Portfolio Analysis with Function Point Metrics
Topic 12: Industry Studies Using Function Point Metrics
Topic 13: Global Studies Using Function Point Analysis
Topic 14: Function Points versus Lines of Code (LOC)
for Software Economic Analysis
Topic 15: Function Points and Software Usage and
Consumption
Patterns of Tools Noted on Successful Software
Projects
Patterns of Tools Noted on Unsuccessful Projects
Topic 16: Function Points and Software Outsource
Contracts
Suggested Format for Monthly Status Reports for
Software Projects
Topic 17: Function Points and Venture Funding of
Software Startups
Topic 18: Function Points for Analysis of Software
Occupation Groups
Topic 19: Data Used by Fortune 500 C-Level Executives
Topic 20: Combining Function Points with Other Metrics
Function Points and Defect Removal Efficiency (DRE)
Function Points and Natural Metrics such as “Document
Pages”
Function Points and Goal Question Metrics (GQM)
Function Points and Earned Value Analysis (EVA)
Function Points, Story Points, and Velocity on Agile
Projects
Function Points and Return on Investment (ROI)
Case 1: Software Improves Operational
Performance
Case 2: Software Generates Direct and Indirect
Revenues Streams
Summary and Conclusions
References and Readings
Additional Literature
Index
Appreciation and
Acknowledgments
This is my 22nd book. As always thanks to my wife Eileen for
supporting my book writing over many years.
This book is dedicated to Watts Humphrey who was a pioneer in
software quality control and effective development patterns. Watts
worked at IBM and then helped create the software assessment
program and the capability maturity model (CMMI) for the Software
Engineering Institute (SEI). Watts was an industry leader in moving
organizations from harmful patterns to effective patterns.
Thanks also to the faculty of the University of Florida and to my
colleagues at IBM.
Preface
This book is divided into two sections. The first section discusses
harmful patterns and practices that tend to cause schedule delays,
cost overruns, and poor quality. The observations and data about
these harmful patterns came from consulting studies and
benchmarks carried out for clients of Namcook Analytics LLC who
wanted to improve their software development practices and
patterns.
The second section of the book shows optimal patterns that have
proven to be successful for large systems. The successful patterns
originated in companies and organizations that build large mission-
critical software systems such as IBM, AT&T, ITT, Nippon Electric,
NASA, and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
Software has been a troubling topic since it first started. There are
seven chronic problems that have plagued software from the
beginning:

1. Incomplete and ambiguous user requirements that grow by

>2% per month.
2. Major cost and schedule overruns for large applications >35%
higher than planned.
3. Low defect removal efficiency (DRE) <85% on large systems.
4. Cancelled projects that are not completed: >30% above 10,000
function points.
5. Poor quality and low reliability after the software is delivered:
>5 bugs per FP.
 6. Breach of contract litigation against software outsource vendors.
7. Expensive maintenance and enhancement costs after delivery.

These are endemic problems for software executives, software

engineers, and software customers but they are not insurmountable.
There are technical solutions for all seven. The solutions involve
moving from harmful patterns of software development to effective
patterns of software development.
Harmful patterns include carelessness in gathering requirements,
failure to use design and code inspections for critical features, and
failure to monitor progress against accumulated costs.
The first beneficial pattern is to match the features of new
applications against libraries of existing software applications to
ensure that all needed requirements will be included.
The second beneficial pattern is to select the optimum kinds of
tools, methodologies, and programming languages for the new
application to ensure optimal development.
The third beneficial pattern is to identify and select as many
standard reusable components as possible. Custom manual software
development is intrinsically slow and error prone, and using standard
reusable components provides the best overall results.
The fourth beneficial pattern is to measure defect removal
efficiency (DRE) and use methods such as static analysis and
inspections that can increase DRE above 99%.
The fifth beneficial pattern is to carefully monitor progress and
accumulated costs during development to ensure that the project
will in fact be delivered on time and within budget. The measures
will include function points completed to date, function points
remaining, and growth of function points due to new requirements
added during development.
Early and accurate measurements of accumulated costs and
progress against planned checkpoints can eliminate the expensive
cancellations of large applications before they are completed. It is
interesting that the average accumulated cost at the day of
cancellation is usually 20% higher than the budgeted cost for the
entire application. Cancelled projects have zero value and cause
CEOs to regard software teams as incompetent and undependable.
Biography
Capers Jones held both managerial and research positions at IBM.
He managed a software quality assurance team at IBM in San Jose,
California. As a software researcher, he designed IBM’s first software
cost-estimating tool in 1973 with Dr. Charles Turk. He received an
IBM outstanding contribution award for improving quality of several
IBM products. He has represented IBM as a speaker at major
external software conferences. He has frequent contact with key IBM
clients discussing on the topics of software quality, productivity and
quality measurement, and software process improvement.
Capers Jones is currently VP and CTO of Namcook Analytics, LLC
which is a leading vendor for developing software estimation tools.
Namcook Analytics is also an international software consulting
company with clients in 27 countries. He has also been a keynote
speaker at major software conferences in the United States, Canada,
Europe, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Japan. He was
named software engineering advisor to governments of South Korea
and Malaysia in 2011. Prior to founding Namcook Analytics, Capers
Jones was Assistant Director of Software Engineering at the ITT
Technology Center in Stratford, CT. He was tasked with helping to
introduce state-of-the-art tools and methods to the 75 major
companies owned by ITT that produced software. Some of the ITT
companies included Hartford Insurance, Sheraton Hotels, Johnson
Controls, Continental Baking, and more than 25 telecommunication
companies in the United States and abroad.
1 WORST-CASE PATTERNS OF
SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT
This section of the book examines common software development
problems that have been observed in many companies and
government agencies. The data comes from consulting studies,
breach of contract lawsuits, and the literature on major software
failures.
It is an unfortunate fact of life that harmful development patterns
are still more common than optimal development patterns. Even
today a majority of large software applications run late, exceed their
planned budgets, and have quality problems after release. Look at
the reviews of Microsoft Windows updates to see how troublesome
large systems are.
This section considers the factors involved with cost overruns,
schedule delays, canceled projects, poor quality, and expensive
maintenance after deployment.
Chapter 1
Challenges of Software Project
Management
Project management in every industry is a challenging occupation. But the challenges
and hazards of software project management are greater than those of most other
industries. This fact is proven by the large number of software project cancellations
and the high frequency of software project cost and schedule overruns. Software
projects run late and exceed their budgets more than any other modern industry
except for defense projects.
Academic training for software project managers is still not very good even today.
Some technology companies have recognized the challenges of software project
management and created effective in-house training for new software project
managers. These companies with effective software project management training
include IBM and a number of telecom companies such as AT&T, ITT, Motorola,
Siemens, and GTE. Some other technology companies such as Google, Microsoft, and
Apple also have effective software project management training. Many of the
companies with good software management training build complex physical devices
run by software. Most are also more than 75 years old and have had software
measurement programs for more than 50 years.
A few companies even offer market effective software project management training.
One of these is a subsidiary of Computer Aid Inc. called the Information Technology
Metrics and Productivity Institute (ITMPI). The non-profit Project Management
Institute (PMI) also offers effective training for software project managers.
Several years ago, a survey of engineering technology company CEOs (computers,
Telecom, electronics, medical devices, autos, and aircraft) found that they regarded
their software organizations as the least professional of any of the corporate
engineering organizations. This was due to the fact that software projects had higher
cancellation rates, longer schedule delays, and higher cost overruns than any of the
other engineering organizations.
Lyman Hamilton, a former Chairman of the ITT Corporation, gave an internal speech
to ITT executives in which he mentioned that newly hired software engineers just out
of college needed about 3 years of internal training before being entrusted with critical
projects. Other kinds of engineers such as mechanical and electrical engineers only
needed about 12 months of internal training.
Hamilton was troubled by several major software failures of projects that were
terminated without being completed. He was also troubled by the dissatisfaction
expressed by customers in the quality of the software the corporation produced. He
was further dissatisfied by the inability of internal software executives to explain why
the problems occurred and what might be done to eliminate them.
It is interesting that the failing projects were all large systems in the 10,000 function
point size range. Failures in this range are common, and managerial problems are
usually a key factor.
Problems, failures, and litigation are directly proportional to the overall size of
software applications measured using function point metrics. Table 1.1 shows the
approximate distribution of software project results circa 2020.
Table 1.1 Normal Software Results Based on Application Size Circa 2020

Note: Costs Are Based on $10,000 per Month

Size in
Function Schedule Productivity Odds
Odds of
Points in Total in Function Cost in U.S. of
Outsource
Calendar Staffing Points per Dollars Project
Litigation
Months Staff Month Failure

1 0.02 1 50.00 $200 0.10% 0.00%

10 0.40 1 25.00 $4,000 1.00% 0.01%
100 3.50 2 14.29 $70,000 2.50% 0.25%
1,000 15.00 6 11.11 $900,000 11.00% 1.20%
10,000 35.00 50 5.71 $17,500,000 31.00% 7.50%
100,000 60.00 575 2.90 $345,000,000 47.50% 23.00%

As can be seen from Table 1.1, large software projects are distressingly troublesome
and have frequent total failures, also a high risk of litigation. Poor project management
is a key contributing factor.
Some leading companies have recognized the difficulty of successful software
project management and taken active steps to improve the situation. Some of these
companies include IBM, AT&T, ITT, Motorola, GTE, and Siemens. Google, Apple, and
Microsoft have also attempted to improve software management although Microsoft
has perhaps been too rigid in some management topics such as employee appraisals.
 The companies that are most proactive in software project management tend to
build complex engineered products such as computers, medical devices, aircraft
controls, and switching systems that depend upon software to operate. The companies
also tend to be mature companies founded over 75 years ago and having effective
software measurement programs that are more than 40 years old. Most were early
adapters of function point metrics and also early adapters of parametric software
estimation tools.
The software benchmarks studies carried out by Namcook Analytics LLC often show
a significant number of serious software project management problems and issues.
Table 1.2 summarizes 41 problems noted in a benchmark study for a Fortune 500
technology corporation.
Table 1.2 Corporate Software Risk Factors Found by a Corporate
Benchmark Study
1 Project management: no formal training for new managers
2 Project management: no annual benchmark studies
Project management: no annual training in state of the art
3
methods
4 Project management: no training in software cost estimating
5 Project management: no training in software quality estimating
6 Project management: no training in software risk analysis
7 Project management: no training in cyber-attack deterrence
8 Project management: no training in function point metrics
9 Project management: no training in schedule planning
Project management: lack of accurate productivity
10
measurements
11 Project management: lack of accurate quality metrics
Project management: incomplete milestone and progress
12
tracking
13 Project management: historical data “leaks” by over 50%
Project management: managers continue to use inaccurate
14
manual estimates
Project management: no widespread use of accurate parametric
15
estimation
16 Quality control: no use of requirements models or QFD
17 Quality control: no use of automated proofs for critical features
18 Quality control: no use of cyber-attack inspections
19 Quality control: no use of formal design inspections
20 Quality control: no use of formal code inspections
21 Quality control: no use of static analysis tools
Quality control: no use of mathematical test case design (cause-
22
effect graphs)
23 Quality control: no use of test coverage tools
Quality control: defect potentials about 4.75 bugs per function
24
point
25 Quality control: defect removal efficiency (DRE) below 90.00%
Maintenance: no use of complexity analysis or cyclomatic
26
complexity
27 Maintenance: no use of renovation tools or work benches
28 Maintenance: no use of code restructuring tools
29 Maintenance: inconsistent use of defect tracking tools
30 Maintenance: no use of inspections on enhancements
31 No reuse program: requirements
32 No reuse program: design
33 No formal reuse program: source code
34 No reuse program: test materials
35 No reuse program: documentation
36 No reuse program: project plans
37 No formal corporate reuse library
38 No corporate contracts with third party reuse companies
Office space: small open offices; high noise levels, many
39
interruptions
Insufficient meeting/breakout space for team meetings; no
40
large meetings
41 Inadequate corporate responses to 2020 COVID virus

Fifteen of the 41 problems or about 36.5% were software project management

problems. This distribution is not uncommon.
The author of this book has been an expert witness in litigation for software projects
that either failed without being delivered or operated so poorly after delivery that the
clients sued the vendors. It is interesting that project management problems were key
factors in every lawsuit. Inaccurate estimation, poor tracking of progress, and poor
quality control are endemic problems of the software industry and far too common
even in 2020. These problems have been part of every breach of contract case where
the author of this book worked as an expert witness.
Improving Software Project Management
Tools and Training
From consulting and benchmark studies carried out among top-tier technology
corporations, they all have taken effective steps to improve and professionalize
software project management. Some of these include at least 11 steps (Table 1.3).
Table 1.3 Eleven Steps to Effective Software Project Management
1 Formal internal training for new project managers (10 days)
Annual training for project managers and technical staff (5
2
days)
3 Guest lectures from top software professionals (3 days)
4 Acquisition and use of parametric estimation tools
Acquisition and use of effective progress and milestone tracking
5
tools
Use of formal project offices for applications >5,000 function
6
points
7 Use of and measurement of effective quality control methods
Elimination of bad software metrics and adoption of effective
8
metrics
9 Commissioning annual software benchmark studies
Formal “best practice” analysis of tools, methods, reuse, and
10
quality
Effective use of Zoom and remote work in response to COVID
11
virus

Let us now consider each of these 11 steps in sequence.

Initial Education for New Project Managers

In many technology companies, project managers are often selected from the ranks of
technical software engineering personnel. If this is so, they usually had close to zero
management training at the university level. IBM recognized this as a problem back in
the 1950s and introduced an effective training program for newly hired or newly
appointed project managers.
This training is given to all project managers, but this report only covers software
training topics. Since new project management training lasts for 10 days, there were
10 topics covered (Table 1.4).
Table 1.4 New Software Project Manager Curriculum
 Project Management Courses Days Value

1 Software milestone tracking 1 10

2 Sizing key software deliverables 1 10
3 Software project planning 1 10
4 Cyber-attack defenses 1 10
5 Software risk management 1 10
6 Software cost estimating: automated 1 10
7 Measurement and metrics of software 1 10
8 Software quality and defect estimating 1 10
9 Human resource policies 1 9
10 Appraisals and employee relations 1 9

Eight of the 10 topics are technical and deal with actual project issues such as
cyber-attacks and risks. Two of the 10 topics deal with human resources and
appraisals, which are of course a critical part of any manager’s job.
Microsoft has received criticism for their appraisal system, which uses mathematical
curves and requires that only a certain percentage of employees can be appraised as
“excellent.” The problem with this is that technology companies such as Microsoft tend
to have more excellent employees than ordinary companies do, so this curve tended to
cause voluntary attrition among capable employees who ended up on the wrong side
of the “excellent” barrier.

Continuing Education for Software Project Managers

A study of software education methods carried out by Namcook Analytics LLC found
that in-house education in major companies such as IBM and AT&T was superior to
academic or university training for software project managers.
IBM and AT&T both employed more than 100 education personnel. These educators
taught in-house courses to software and other personnel, and also taught customer
courses to clients. The education groups operated initially as cost centers with no
charges for in-house or customer training. More recently, they have tended to switch
to profit-center operations and do charge for training, at least for some customer
training.
Quite a few technology companies have at least 10 days of training for new
managers and about a week of training each year for both managers and technical
staff. When Capers Jones was a new manager at IBM, he took this 10-day training
series and later taught some of the IBM project management courses on estimation,
measurements, quality control, and software risk analysis.
Table 1.5 shows the rankings of 15 channels of software project management
education in order of effectiveness.
Table 1.5 Ranking Software Management Education Channels
1 In-house education in technology companies
2 Commercial education by professional educators
3 University education – graduate
4 University education – undergraduate
5 In-house education in non-technology companies
6 Mentoring by experienced managers
7 On-the-job training
8 Non-profit education (IEEE, PMI, IFPUG, etc.)
9 Vendor education (management tools)
10 Self-study from work books
11 Self-study from CD-ROMs or DVDs
12 Live conferences with seminars and tutorials
13 On-line education via the Internet and World Wide Web
14 Project management books
15 Project management journals

A composite software project management curriculum derived from technology

companies such as IBM, AT&T, ITT, Microsoft, and Apple is shown in Table 1.6.
Table 1.6 Software Project Management Curriculum

Project Management Courses Days Value

1 Software milestone tracking 1.00 10.00

2 Early sizing before requirements 1.00 10.00
3 Sizing key deliverables 1.00 10.00
4 Controlling creeping requirements 1.00 10.00
5 Software project planning 2.00 10.00
6 Cyber-attack defenses 2.00 10.00
7 Cyber-attack recovery 1.00 10.00
8 Software outsourcing pros and cons 1.00 10.00
9 Optimizing multi-country teams 1.00 10.00
10 Best practices in project management 1.00 10.00
11 Software risk management 1.00 10.00
12 Software cost estimating: automated 2.00 10.00
 Project Management Courses Days Value

13 Software high-security architecture 1.00 10.00

14 Benchmark sources: ISBSG, Namcook, etc. 1.00 10.00
15 Measurement and metrics of software 2.00 10.00
16 Software quality and defect estimating 1.00 10.00
17 Software defect tracking 1.00 9.75
18 Software benchmark overview 1.00 9.75
19 Function point analysis: high speed 1.00 9.75
20 Human resource policies 1.00 9.60
21 Software change control 1.00 9.50
22 Principles of software reuse 1.00 9.40
23 Appraisals and employee relations 1.00 9.00
24 Software cost tracking 1.00 9.00
25 Software maintenance & enhancement 1.00 9.00
26 Methodologies: agile, RUP, TSP, others 1.00 9.00
27 The capability maturity model (CMMI) 2.00 9.00
28 Overview of management tools 1.00 9.00
29 Testing for project managers 2.00 8.75
30 Static analysis for project managers 0.50 8.75
31 Inspections for project managers 0.50 8.75
32 Project management body of knowledge 1.50 8.70
33 Software metrics for project managers 1.00 8.50
34 Software cost estimating: manual 1.00 8.00
35 Tools: cost accounting 1.00 8.00
36 Tools: project management 1.00 8.00
37 Tools: human resources 1.00 8.00
38 Tools: cost and quality estimation 1.00 8.00
39 Function points for project managers 0.50 8.00
40 ISO Standards for functional measures 1.00 8.00
41 Principles of agile for managers 1.00 7.75
42 Principles of RUP for managers 1.00 7.75
43 Principles of TSP/PSP for managers 1.00 7.75
44 Principles of DevOps for managers 1.00 7.75
45 Principles of containers for managers 1.00 7.75
46 Earned value measurement (EVM) 1.00 6.75
47 Principles of balanced scorecards 1.00 6.50
48 Six-Sigma for project managers 2.00 6.00
 Project Management Courses Days Value

49 Six-Sigma: green belt 3.00 6.00

50 Six-Sigma: black belt 3.00 6.00
Total 60.00 8.82

Needless to say this curriculum would be spread over a multi-year period. It is

merely a combination of the kinds of software project management courses available
in modern technology companies.

Guest Lectures from Visiting Experts (Remotely via Zoom

or Other Tools)
Over and above software classroom training, some technology companies have
occasional internal seminars for all personnel which feature industry experts and
famous software researchers. IBM, AT&T, and ITT had large seminars twice a year.
One seminar was open only to employees and discussed some proprietary or
confidential information such as new products and market expansion. The second
large seminar was intended to demonstrate technical excellence to clients and
customers, who were also invited to participate.
Among the well-known experts invited to companies such as AT&T, IBM, Siemens,
and ITT were Al Albrecht (inventor of function points), Dr. Barry Boehm (inventor of
COCOMO), Dr. Fred Brooks (author of The Mythical Man-Month), Watts Humphrey
(creator of the SEI CMMI), Dr. Larry Putnam (inventor of SLIM), Dr. Jerry Weinberg
(author of The Psychology of Computer Programming), Bill Gates of Microsoft, Donald
Knuth (pioneer of computer algorithms), Admiral Grace Hopper of the Navy (inventor
of COBOL), Ken Thompson (co-developer of UNIX), Linus Torvalds (developer of
Linux), and many more.
Usually these events lasted for about half a day of technical topics, and then had
either a lunch or a reception for the guests based on whether it was a morning event
or an afternoon event. At the reception or lunch, the audience could meet and chat
informally with the visiting experts.
Because the guest experts were world famous, these corporate seminars were
attended by top software executives as well as software engineers and technical staff.
This was a good method for bringing together all levels of a company to focus on
critical software issues.
Having attended a number of these, they were usually very enjoyable and it was
good to meet famous software researchers such as Admiral Grace Hopper face to face.
 Needless to say this kind of event usually takes place in fairly large companies since
they are expensive. However these seminars were also valuable and benefitted both
the executives and technical staffs of IBM, ITT, AT&T, Microsoft, and other companies
that have them.

Acquisition and Use of Software Parametric Estimation

Tools
IBM discovered in the early 1970s that manual software cost estimates became
increasingly optimistic and inaccurate as the application size increased from below 100
function points to more than 10,000 function points. Since applications grew rapidly in
this era, IBM commissioned Capers Jones and Dr. Charles Turk to build its first
parametric estimation tool in 1973. ITT did the same in 1979 and AT&T commissioned
a custom parametric estimation tool for its electronic switching systems in 1983.
The technology and telecom sectors have been pioneers in the development and
usage of parametric estimation tools.
Software has achieved a bad reputation as a troubling technology. Large software
projects have tended to have a very high frequency of schedule over-runs, cost
overruns, quality problems, and outright cancellations of large systems. While this bad
reputation is often deserved, it is important to note that some large software projects
are finished on time, stay within their budgets, and operate successfully when
deployed.
The successful software projects differ in many respects from the failures and
disasters. One important difference is how the successful projects arrived at their
schedule, cost, resource, and quality estimates in the first place.
It often happens that projects exceeding their planned schedules or cost estimates
did not use state of the art methods for determining either their schedules or their
costs. Although the project is cited for overruns, the root problem is inadequate
planning and estimation.
From large-scale studies first published in Software Engineering Best Practices
(Jones 2010) and The Economics of Software Quality (Jones & Bonsignour 2011)
usage of automated parametric estimating tools, automated project scheduling tools,
and automated defect and quality estimating tools (all of these are combined in some
tools such as Software Risk Master (SRM)) are strongly correlated with successful
outcomes.
Conversely, software project failures tended to use casual and manual methods of
arriving at initial estimates. Indeed, for many software failures, there was no formal
estimation at all. Analyzing 15 breach of contract lawsuits for failure, delays, and poor
quality witnessed all of the projects were larger than 10,000 function points and all
used manual estimating methods.
The first software parametric cost estimation tools were created by researchers who
were employed by large enterprises that built large and complex software systems:
IBM, Hughes, RCA, TRW, and the U.S. Air Force were the organizations whose
research led to the development of commercial parametric cost estimating tools.
Some of the estimating pioneers who developed the first parametric estimating tools
include in alphabetical order: Dr. Barry Boehm (TRW), Frank Freiman (RCA), Dan
Galorath (SEER), Capers Jones (IBM), Dr. Larry Putnam (Air Force), and Dr. Howard
Rubin (academic-SUNY).
In 1973, the author of this book and his colleague Dr. Charles Turk at IBM San Jose
built IBM’s first automated parametric estimation tool for systems software. This tool
was called the “Interactive Productivity and Quality” (IPQ) tool. This internal IBM tool
was proprietary and not put on the commercial market since it gave IBM competitive
advantages. This tool was developed at IBM’s San Jose complex and soon had over
200 IBM users at over 20 locations around the world.
Today in 2021, most technology and telecom companies use parametric estimation
tools. These are normally used by project offices or by special estimating teams that
provide estimates as a service to specific projects.
Some of the major parametric estimation tools today include in alphabetical order:

1. Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO)

2. CostXpert
3. ExcelerPlan
4. KnowledgePlan
5. SEER
6. SLIM
7. Software Risk Master (SRM)
8. True Price

These commercial parametric estimation tools are widely used by technology

companies, defense contractors, and other large corporations. They are fairly
expensive of over $5,000 per seat for most.
However, there is also the constructive cost model (COCOMO) developed by Dr.
Barry Boehm. This estimating tool is free. Because COCOMO is free, it is widely used
by universities and small companies that cannot afford the more expensive commercial
estimation tools, but COCOMO does not have wide usage among U.S. technology
companies which need more detailed estimates provided by commercial parametric
tools.
For example the major features of the Software Risk Master (SRM) commercial
software estimation tool include:

Sizing logic for specifications, source code, and test cases.

Sizing logic for function points and lines of code (LOC).
Sizing logic for story points and use-case points.
Sizing logic for requirements creep during development and post release.
Activity = level estimation for requirements, design, code, testing, etc.
Sophisticated quality estimates that predict defects and DRE.
Support for 60 development methods such as agile, containers, DevOps, TSP,
spiral, etc.
Support for development, user costs, and three years of maintenance.
Support for IFPUG function point metrics.
Support for the new SNAP point metric for non-functional requirements.
Support for other function point metrics such as COSMIC, NESMA, FISMA, etc.
Support for older lines of code (LOC) metrics (both physical and logical).
Support for modern topics such as cyber-defenses and cyber-attack recovery.
Support for proprietary metrics such as feature points and object points.
Support for software reusability of various artifacts.
Support for 84 modern languages such as Java, Ruby, mySQL, and others.
Support for systems applications such as operating systems and telecom.
Support for IT applications such as finance and insurance.
Support for web-based applications.
Support for cloud applications.
Support for ERP deployment and customization.
Support for including commercial off the shelf software (COTS).
Support for software portfolio analysis.

SRM also supports many advanced functions:

Quality and reliability estimation.

Numbers of test cases needed and test coverage.
Litigation costs for breach of contract.
 Cyber-attack costs and recovery costs.
ERP deployment and modification.
Portfolio sizing and annual portfolio maintenance.
Risk and value analysis.
Measurement modes for collecting historical data.
Cost and time to complete estimates mixing historical data with projected data.
Support for software process assessments.
Support for results from the five levels of the SEI CMMI.
Special estimates such as the odds and costs of outsource litigation.
Special estimates such as venture funding for software startups.

Other commercial software parametric estimation tools have similar features. The
U.S. Air Force used to perform annual trials of commercial parametric estimation tools.
All of the major parametric tools were within about 10% of one another, and all were
significantly more accurate than manual estimates for large projects above 1,000
function points in size. Manual estimates were often optimistic on cost and schedules
by more than 50% above 1,000 function points. Parametric estimation tools are almost
never optimistic and usually come within 10% of actual results.
Of course another industry problem is that most companies do not have accurate
results. Among the author’s clients, the average accuracy of software project historical
data is only 37%. The most common “leaks” from project historical data include
business analysts, project managers, software quality assurance, technical writers,
project office personnel, configuration control, and integration specialists. Measuring
only developers and test personnel such as “design, code, and unit test” or DCUT is
common but fundamentally inaccurate and inadequate for economic or quality
analysis.
One new problem for software estimation was the arrival of the corona virus in
March of 2020. This virus led to closure of many software office locations and a switch
to working from home using computers for status meetings and progress discussions.
The virus will no doubt have a major negative impact on software productivity rates
and probably a negative impact on software quality. However, as of late 2020, there
were very little quantitative data available because many large projects started in 2020
were not finished so their productivity and quality can’t be measured until 2021 or
later.
Acquisition and Use of Progress and Milestone Tracking
Tools
In addition to parametric estimation tools, there are also many commercial project
management tools. The phrase “project management tools” has been applied to a
large family of tools whose primary purpose is sophisticated scheduling for projects
with hundreds or even thousands of overlapping and partially interdependent tasks
and large teams in the hundreds. These tools are able to drop down to very detailed
task levels and can even handle the schedules of individual workers. Microsoft Project
and Artemis Views are two samples of project management tools. The new automated
project office (APO) tool of Computer Aid is a modern project management tool only
recently put on the market. There are also open-source project management and
tracking tools such as JIRA.
However, the family of project management tools are for general purpose in nature
and do not include specialized software sizing and estimating capabilities as do the
software cost estimating tools. Neither do these general project management tools
deal with quality issues such as DRE. Project management tools are useful, but
software requires additional capabilities to be under full management control.
Project management tools are an automated form of several management aids
developed by the Navy for controlling large and complex weapons systems: the
“program evaluation and review technique” (PERT), critical path analysis, resource
leveling, and the classic Gantt charts. Project management tools used for defense
projects also support earned-value analysis (EVA) although this is seldom used in the
civilian sectors.
Project management tools have no built-in expertise regarding software, as do
software cost estimating tools. For example, if you wish to explore the quality and cost
impact of an object-oriented programming language such as Objective C, a standard
project management tool is not the right choice.
By contrast, many software cost estimating tools have built-in tables of
programming languages and will automatically adjust the estimate based on which
language is selected for the application. Project management tools and software cost
estimating tools provide different but complementary functions. Most software cost
estimating tools interface directly with common project management tools such as
Microsoft Project.
Project
Management Software Cost Estimating Tools
Tools

Work-
breakdown Sizing logic for function points, code, etc.
structures
Activity-based
Quality estimates
cost analysis
Earned-value
Integral risk estimates
calculations
Effort by staff
Staffing predictions (testers, programmers, etc.)
members
Cost
Cost estimating
accumulation
Both kinds of tools are useful for large and complex software projects and are
generally used concurrently by project office personnel. An average software project
using both parametric estimation tools and project management tools would be a
significant project of over 1,000 function points in size. Small projects below 100
function points are often estimated informally and use only normal corporate cost
accounting tools rather than sophisticated project management tools.

The Use of Formal Project Offices (PMOs) for Applications

>1,000 Function Points
When software started, most applications were small and below 100 function points in
size. During the late 1960s and early 1970s, software applications such as operating
systems and telephone switching systems grew above 10,000 function points.
These larger applications had development teams that often topped 100 workers
and they had over a dozen managers, including some 2nd and 3rd line managers.
Due to the poor training of most software managers in topics such as sizing,
planning, estimating, and measurement, it soon became obvious that expert help was
needed for these critical tasks.
The project office concept is much older than software and appeared in the late
1800s for manufacturing and even for agriculture and commodity training. Many
industries used project offices before software became important in the 1950s. IBM
was a pioneer in the creation and effective use of software project offices in the late
1960s.
 There are a number of levels and kinds of project offices, but for this report, the
main emphasis is on specific software projects that are fairly large and complex such
as 10,000 function points in size.
For these large systems, the main roles played by the software project office are the
following:

1. Identifying important standards for the project such as ISO or OMG standards.
2. Identifying important corporate standards such as the IBM standards for software
quality.
3. Identifying and monitoring government mandates such as FAA, FDA, or Sarbanes-
Oxley.
4. Early sizing of project deliverables using one or more parametric estimation tools.
5. Early prediction of schedules, costs, and staffing using one or more parametric
estimation tools.
6. Early prediction of requirements creep.
7. Early prediction of defect potentials and DRE.
8. Establishing project cost and milestone tracking guidelines for all personnel.
9. Continuous monitoring of progress, accumulated costs, and schedule adherence.
10. Continuous monitoring of planned vs. actual DRE.

Project offices are a useful and valuable software structure. They usually contain
from 3 to more than 10 people based on the size of the project being controlled.
Among the kinds of personnel employed in software project, offices are estimating
specialists, metric specialists such as certified function point counters, quality control
specialists, and standards specialists.
Project offices usually have several parametric estimation tools available and also
both general and specialized project tracking tools. Shown in Table 1.7 are samples of
some of the kinds of tools and information that a project office might utilize in a
technology company for a major software application
Table 1.7 Tools for Software Projects

Tasks Tools Utilized

1 Architecture QEMU
2 Automated test HP QuickTest Professional
ISBSG, Namcook SRM, Davids, Q/P
3 Benchmarks
Management
4 Coding Eclipse, Slickedit
 Tasks Tools Utilized

5 Configuration Perforce
Software Risk Master (SRM), SLIM, SEER,
6 Cost estimate
COCOMO
Automated project office (APO), Microsoft
7 Cost tracking
Project
8 Cyclomatic BattleMap
9 Debugging GHS probe
10 Defect tracking Bugzilla
11 Design Projects Unlimited, Visio
12 Earned value DelTek Cobra
13 ERP Microsoft Dynamics
14 Function points 1 Software Risk Master (SRM)
15 Function points 2 Function point workbench
16 Function points 3 CAST automated function points
17 Graphics design Visio
18 Inspections SlickEdit
19 Integration Apache Camel
20 ISO tools ISOXpress
21 Maintenance Mpulse
22 Manual test DevTest
23 Milestone track KIDASA Softare Milestone Professional
24 Progress track Jira, Automated Project Office (APO)
25 Project mgt. Automated project office (APO)
26 Quality estimate Software Risk Master (SRM)
27 Requirements Rational Doors
28 Risk analysis Software Risk Master (SRM)
Source code size
29 Software Risk Master (SRM)
1
Source code size
30 Unified code counter (UCC)
2
31 SQA NASA Goddard ARM tool
32 Static analysis OptimMyth Kiuwin, Coverity, Klocwork
33 Support Zendesk
34 Test coverage Software Verify suite
35 Test library DevTest
36 Value analysis Excel and Value Stream Tracking
ISO and Other Standards Used for Project

IEEE 610.12-
Software engineering terminology
1990
IEEE 730-1999 Software assurance
IEEE 12207 Software process tree
ISO/IEC 9001 Software quality
ISO/IEC 9003 Software quality
ISO/IEC 12207 Software engineering
ISO/IEC 25010 Software quality
ISO/IEC 29119 Software testing
ISO/IEC 27034 Software security
ISO/IEC 20926 Function point counting
OMG Corba Common Object Request Broker Architecture
OMG Models Meta models for software
OMG funct.
Automated function points (legacy applications)
pts.
UNICODE Globalization and internationalization

Professional Certifications Used on Project

Certification
used for
project = 1
Certification
not used for
project = 0

Note: Some
team members
have multiple
certifications.
Certification –
0
Apple
Certification –
Computer Aid 0
Inc.
Certification –
Computer 0
Associates
Professional Certifications Used on Project

Certification –
0
FAA
Certification –
0
FDA
Certification –
Hewlett 0
Packard
Certification –
1
IBM
Certification –
1
Microsoft
Certification –
0
Oracle
Certification –
1
PMI
Certification –
0
QAI
Certification –
0
Red Hat
Certification –
0
RSBC
Certification –
0
SAP
Certification –
Sarbanes- 0
Oxley
Certification –
0
SEI
Certification –
0
Sun
Certification –
0
Symantec
Certification –
0
TickIT
Certification of
computing 0
professionals
Certified 1
configuration
Professional Certifications Used on Project

management
specialist
Certified
function point 1
analyst
Certified
project 1
managers
Certified
requirements 0
engineers
Certified
1
scrum master
Certified
secure
software 0
lifecycle
professional
Certified
security 0
engineer
Certified SEI
1
appraiser
Certified
software 0
architect
Certified
software
1
business
analyst
Certified
software
0
development
professional
Certified
software 0
engineers
Certified 1
software
Professional Certifications Used on Project

quality
assurance
Certified test
0
managers
Certified
1
testers
Certified
1
webmaster
Certified
software 1
auditor
Total 13

As can be seen, software project offices add knowledge and rigor to topics where
ordinary project managers may not be fully trained or highly experienced.

Use and Measurement of Effective Quality Control Methods

The #1 cost driver for the software industry for more than 50 years has been “the cost
of finding and fixing bugs.” Since bug repairs are the top cost driver, it is impossible to
have an accurate cost estimate without including quality costs. It is also impossible to
have an accurate cost estimate, or to finish a project on time, unless it uses state of
the art quality control methods.
The #1 reason for software schedule delays and cost overruns for more than 50
years has been excessive defects present when testing starts, which stretches out the
planned test duration by over 100% and also raises planned development costs.
Without excellent quality control, software projects will always run late, exceed their
budgets, and be at risk of cancellation if excessive costs make the ROI a negative
value.
It is alarming that in several lawsuits where Capers Jones has been an expert
witness, depositions showed that project managers deliberately cut back on pre-test
removal such as inspections and truncated testing early “in order to meet schedules.”
From the fact that the projects were late and over budget, cutting back on quality
control raised costs and lengthened schedules, but the project managers did not know
that this would happen.
Table 1.8 shows the 16 major cost drivers for software projects in 2021. The cost
drivers highlighted in red are attributable to poor software quality.
Other documents randomly have
different content
 “I am glad to hear it, Ben. I took a liking to you when I first met
you. Where are you staying?”

“At this hotel for a week, with my friend, General Flint of Iowa.”

“I am delighted to hear such good news of you, Ben. You certainly

did well to leave your country home.”

Ben seized the first opportunity after reaching home to write to his
mother. He did not go into details as to the fortune that had been
left him, but said that he was very comfortably fixed.

Mrs. Winter wrote in reply almost immediately. Her letter was in

part as follows:

“Mr. Winter has become more and more difficult to

get along with. Some relation of his, Ezra Winter,
induced him about a year since, to go into mining
stocks as a speculative investment. He has been here
several times from Boston, where he has an office, and
every time I think he has induced Mr. Winter to invest
more heavily. I have no doubt the investment was
unwise, and has resulted in considerable losses. I had
no confidence in this Ezra; he looks sly and unreliable,
but he influenced Mr. Winter by promises of immense
profits. For three months Mr. Winter has seemed very
much troubled, and a week ago he went to Boston to
get some information out of Ezra. He returned crosser
and more querulous than ever. He has begun to pinch
about household expenses, and insists upon my
dispensing with a servant, which compels me to work
beyond my strength. I realize more than ever how
unwise I was to marry Jacob Winter, but I did so
largely on your account. When you see him you will be
surprised to find how he has aged. Ezra is at the
 bottom of it all. Mr. Winter is so fond of money that his
losses have weighed upon him heavily.”

After reading this letter Ben decided that he must make an early
visit to Wrayburn to see his mother.
 CHAPTER XXXVII.

FRANK MORDAUNT.

Before leaving New York for his return to his old home, Ben took a
brief trip over to Brooklyn to see his friend Frank Mordaunt. He
found the family in a cheerful and happy mood.

Frank welcomed him heartily.

“It seems good to see you back, Ben,” he said.

“I suppose you have given up selling papers, Frank,” returned Ben,

smiling.

“Yes, ever since the wonderful news you sent, and the letter from
Mr. Wentworth inclosing one hundred dollars. It came just in the nick
of time. We were on the point of being ejected for not being able to
pay our rent.”

“You will never have any such trouble again, Frank. Mr. Wentworth
has sent me over to bring you to his office.”

“Is it really true that we have come into five thousand dollars a
year income?”

“There is no doubt about it, Frank. You ought to have come into it
a year ago. I am owing you five thousand dollars back income.”

“You!” exclaimed Frank in great surprise.

“Yes. I am the heir of Mrs. Harcourt, and I am pledged to pay

back the money which she wrongfully received.”
 “I hope you inherited a good sum, Ben.”

“Forty thousand dollars; but out of it I am to pay your back

income. It will leave me thirty-five thousand dollars, as Mr. Basil
Wentworth has kindly refused to accept his share.”

“And we will do the same,” said Frank warmly. “We ought to make
some return for your kindness.”

“But, Frank, it is only fair that I should pay it.”

“We can afford to give it up. Why, with five thousand dollars a
year we shall feel like millionaires.”

“And with forty thousand dollars I shall be very rich for a Bowery
newsboy.”

“It will only yield an income of two thousand dollars a year, and
we shall have five thousand. Say no more, Ben; I will speak to my
mother and we will arrange matters with Mr. Basil Wentworth. We
can afford to be as generous as he is.”

To anticipate a little, Mrs. Mordaunt cordially agreed to Frank’s

proposal and Ben received the entire fortune of his benefactress
without incumbrance.

On the Fulton ferryboat Frank called attention to a boy sitting

near, who was dudishly dressed, and appeared to have a very high
opinion of himself.

“Do you see that boy, Ben?” he asked.

“Yes.”

“I know him well. He lives only a block from us, but in a much
better house. He looks down upon me as a poor newsboy, and when
he speaks to me it is in a tone of lofty condescension.”
 “What is his name?”

“Herman Brooks.”

“I suppose he belongs to a rich family.”

“His father earns an income of two thousand dollars a year in the

New York Custom House, but as he is an only son they are able to
give him a good supply of pocket money.”

“Probably he will change his opinion of you when he hears of your

good fortune.”

“No doubt. I think I will speak to him, so that you may have a
specimen of his manners.”

Frank moved up to the seat next to Herman.

“Good morning, Herman,” he said.

“Oh, it’s you, is it?” said Herman Brooks coldly. “How is the paper
business nowadays?”

“About the same as usual, I presume, but I am out of it.”

“Oh! I suppose you are looking for a position in some office?”

“I may by and by. By the way, Herman, I see you have a new
bicycle?”

“Yes,” answered Herman with some interest, for he felt quite

proud of his new purchase.

“Do you mind telling me where you bought it?”

“Perhaps you are thinking of buying one,” said Herman, smiling in

evident amusement.
 “I may do so. I always thought I should like a bicycle.”

“You can get one like mine for a hundred and thirty-five dollars.”

“I wouldn’t mind paying that for a good wheel.”

“You must be crazy!” ejaculated Herman, half amused, half angry.

“It is nonsense for you, a poor newsboy, to talk of buying a bicycle
like mine.”

“I don’t know why it is, as long as I can pay for it.”

“But you can’t pay for it. You must be crazy, Frank Mordaunt.”

Frank smiled in evident enjoyment of the surprise he was going to

give his scornful companion.

“Probably you didn’t know of the change in our circumstances,” he

said quietly.

“What change?”

“By the death of a relative we have come into an income of five

thousand dollars a year.”

“Is this true?” asked Herman in amazement.

“Entirely so.”

Herman’s face underwent an instant change. If there was anything

for which he felt respect it was money, and he realized that this
hitherto despised newsboy was much better off than himself.

“Accept my congratulations,” he said, with suavity. “You are

remarkably fortunate. If you want to buy a bicycle I will go over to
New York any time and help you select one. Why won’t you come
and spend the evening with me soon.”
 “Thank you, but I didn’t suppose you would care to entertain a
newsboy.”

“You are not a newsboy now. You are a gentleman.”

“Thank you.”

“Who is the young fellow with you?”

“Ben Bruce. He has just returned from spending a year in Europe.”

“I should like to be introduced.”

Smiling inwardly at the sudden change in Herman’s manner, Frank

called Ben and introduced him to Herman.

“I am glad to meet you, Mr. Bruce,” said Herman. “How did you
enjoy traveling in Europe?”

“Very much.”

“My father has promised to take me there some time.”

“Probably Frank and I will go together in a year or two.”

This was a sudden thought of Ben, but it will not be surprising if it

is some time carried into effect.

By this time the boat had reached the New York dock, and the
boys separated.

“Herman’s opinion of you has changed materially in a short time,”

said Ben, smiling.

“Yes,” answered Frank, “and it would change back again if I

should lose my fortune.”
 CHAPTER XXXVIII.

BEN OVERHEARS AN IMPORTANT

CONVERSATION.

Two days later found Ben a passenger bound for Boston on one of
the palatial steamers of the Fall River line.

He looked about him to see if among the eight hundred

passengers he could recognize any one. He walked through the
brilliant saloon and out upon the open deck in the rear. There were
but few passengers outside, as the air was fresh and chill. Ben
looked about him carelessly, when his gaze was suddenly arrested
by one face.

It was not an attractive face, but quite the reverse. There was a
sly and cunning expression, and a mean, treacherous look about the
eyes that naturally excited distrust. All this would not have attracted
Ben’s notice, who had seen many ill-looking faces in his wanderings,
but there was something familiar in the general appearance of the
man, some resemblance to a face that he had known. He could not
tell immediately whom the man resembled, but it came to him after
a while.

The man before him, though probably twenty-five years younger,

bore a strong resemblance to his stepfather, Jacob Winter.

Then the thought occurred to him: “This must be the Ezra Winter
who has lured Mr. Winter into mining speculations. If it is, he looks
just like a man who would have no scruple in swindling him.”
 Ben next examined the man who was sitting beside the supposed
Ezra Winter.

He was a man of the same type, evidently—a man with a low

forehead and small ferret-like eyes. The two seemed to be engaged
in a deeply interesting and earnest conversation. Ben was curious to
learn what they were talking about, and did not scruple to sit down
as near them as possible, in the hope of learning.

“Yes,” said the first man, who was really Ezra Winter, “I have made
a pretty good thing out of the Muddy Gulch Mining Company. I got in
at bottom figures, and have sold a large number of shares at ten
times what I gave for them.”

“Is the stock worth anything, Ezra?”

“Precious little. It looks well—on paper. I have an old uncle up in

the country—in Wrayburn, New Hampshire, who is in to the extent
of three thousand dollars. The old man is tight as a file, but I
humbugged him into thinking I was going to double his money
within a year, and by degrees I drew him in.

“First he invested a thousand dollars after a hundred questions.

That was about a year ago. I’ll tell you how I managed to get him in
deeper. At the end of three months I invented a ten per cent.
dividend, paying it all out of my own pocket. It paid, for he almost
immediately put in two thousand dollars more. There haven’t been
any dividends since!”

“Isn’t he uneasy?”

“I should say so. I get a letter about every week, asking how soon
there is going to be another dividend. A short time since the old man
came to Boston to make me a visit. It was the first time he had been
there since he was thirty years old. I was dismayed when I saw him
coming, but I pulled myself together and gave him exclusive news of
a rich find of ore that would carry up the price to twice what he paid
for it.

“I don’t know whether I quite deceived him or not. He wanted me

to sell out half his stock, but I told him it would be at a great
sacrifice. In fact he couldn’t get more than fifty cents a share, but I
didn’t tell him that. He suggested asking some other broker about it,
but that would never do. I told him I would keep him apprised of the
advance in the stock, and would write him every week. So every
week I have written him an encouraging letter, but I am afraid every
day of seeing the rusty old man enter the office.”
 Ben was curious to know what these two
men were talking about, so he sat down as
near as possible, in the hope of learning
something.—Page 295.
Ben Bruce.

“Is he the only customer who gives you trouble?”

 “Not by any manner of means. To tell the truth, Barlow, Boston is
getting too hot to hold me. I have made a pretty good trip to New
York, and now I am prepared to carry out an old plan of mine.”

“How is that?”

“In the first place I have been out to Nyack to interview a young
man of more money than brains, and I have in my pocket a check
for twenty-five hundred dollars received in return for stock.”

“Good! You’re a sharp one, Ezra. Is it the same old stock?”

“Yes, but the certificates are very handsome. I have ordered some
new ones. They look fine, as I have already told you. Well, now, I
have got together about six thousand dollars, and I shall take the
next steamer for Liverpool.”

“Leaving your victims in the lurch?”

“That’s about the size of it.”

“Ezra, Ezra! I am afraid you are a trifle unprincipled,” said his

friend in gay remonstrance.

“A man must look out for himself in this world, Barlow.”

“That’s so. You were born smart. I am afraid I wasn’t. Don’t you
want a private secretary?”

“I may some time,” answered Ezra quite seriously. “If I do, I will
think of you, Barlow.”

“How long shall you stay abroad?”

“Till this affair blows over. I may be able to do something over

there. Six thousand dollars won’t last me forever.”
 It may be imagined with what interest Ben listened to this
conversation. It revealed to him the manner in which his stepfather
had been fleeced. Skinflint as he was, it was his love for money that
had made him a ready victim to Ezra and his wiles.

Though he had no love for Jacob Winter, he felt that Ezra was far
more contemptible, and it made his blood boil to think of the cold-
blooded way in which he had swindled those who had trusted to his
plausible recommendations of the fraudulent mine which appeared
to have no intrinsic value.

The two speakers had paid no especial attention to the boy who
sat near them gazing with apparent absorption into the waters of
the Sound.

At length Barlow noticed him and he breathed a word of caution

to Ezra.

Ezra looked round, but he did not seem alarmed.

“Bah!” he said, “it’s only a kid.”

“‘Little pitchers have large ears,’” suggested Barlow.

“Even if he has heard anything, he hasn’t understood it.”

“I dare say you are right. A boy of his age isn’t likely to know
much about business.”

“It’s getting a little chilly. Let us go inside.”

“Very well!” and the two entered the main saloon and sat down to
listen to the fine music discoursed by the band.

“What ought I to do?” Ben asked himself, when he was left alone.
“I don’t care much for Jacob Winter, but I don’t like to see him
swindled in such a barefaced manner. If there is any way in which I
can balk the scheme I will.”
 CHAPTER XXXIX.

BEN CONSULTS A LAWYER.

How to foil Ezra Winter in his fraudulent schemes Ben could not
tell. Though he had more experience than most boys of his age he
was not so familiar with villainy as some boys who have been
brought up amid different surroundings.

“I must consult some one older and wiser than myself,” he

reflected.

Arrived in Boston he grew impatient to start for Wrayburn. It was

more than a year—about fifteen months—since he had left the quiet
town, and he felt a strong desire to see his mother. He could have
gone a considerably longer time without seeing Mr. Winter—indeed
he would not have mourned much if he knew he should never see
him again.

But no boy who has a heart does not feel it throb quicker at the
thought of his mother. Ben’s mother had always been kind, loving
and indulgent, and his recent good fortune he valued the more
because it would enable him to provide for her more liberally than
ever before, and save her from all future anxiety and hard work.

It was not over seventy miles from Boston to Wrayburn. It had

seemed to him when he first made the journey a long one, but he
had been such a traveler in the fifteen months that had elapsed
since that it seemed to him a very short one.

He looked about him eagerly to see if he could see any familiar

form. But no Wrayburn man seemed to be returning from Boston.
When he was fifteen miles from Wrayburn, his heart leaped with
pleasure as a passenger with a familiar face entered the car.

It was Mr. John Bentham, an elderly lawyer who lived only about
half a mile from Jacob Winter’s farmhouse, and did what law
business was required by the people in Wrayburn and the adjoining
towns.

Ben rose and went over to the lawyer’s seat.

“How do you do, Mr. Bentham?” he said.

The lawyer lifted his glasses and surveyed Ben at first with a
puzzled expression.

“Don’t you know me, Mr. Bentham? I am Ben Bruce.”

“Why, so you are! Bless my soul how you have grown! And where
have you been this long time?”

“Chiefly in New York and Europe.”

“In Europe? How on earth came you to go there?”

“My expenses were paid by a lady who took an interest in me.”

“You seem to have been born under a lucky star. And now you are
coming back to Wrayburn?”

“Yes, but not to stay. Only to see my mother.”

“Then you don’t think you would enjoy working on the farm
again?”

“I am sure I wouldn’t.”

“I hope you are sure of making a living elsewhere. It is better to

live comfortably on a farm than to live from hand to mouth in a large
city.”

“That is true, but I am no longer a green country boy. I am able to

make my way in New York.”

“I am glad to hear it.”

“Have you seen my mother lately, Mr. Bentham? Is she well?”

“Your mother is not sick, but I can’t say she is looking altogether
well. She seems rather thin and careworn. Have you heard from her
lately?”

“Yes, and her letter made me anxious. She says that Mr. Winter is
getting very irritable and hard to get along with. Of course, that
wears upon her.”

“I suspect the old man has met with losses, and that has a bad
effect on his temper.”

“I know he has, Mr. Bentham, and I want to consult you

professionally on the subject.”

“I am quite at your service, Ben,” said the lawyer, looking rather

surprised.

Ben proceeded to tell what he had heard on the Fall River boat.

Mr. Bentham listened with interest.

“It is evident,” he said, “that your stepfather’s unprincipled relative

intends to plunder him, and spread the proceeds of the robbery
abroad.”

“Is there any way in which he can be stopped?” asked Ben

anxiously.
 “Yes, he can be arrested on Mr. Winter’s affidavit that he believes
he intends to go abroad with property not rightfully his own. Have
you any idea how much of your stepfather’s money he has secured?”

“Mr. Winter, besides his farm, had about five thousand dollars in
cash. I think he has managed to get nearly all this into his hands.”

“The loss of this money would nearly kill Jacob Winter.”

“My mother writes that he has very much aged of late.”

“I have noticed that, but of course I did not know the reason.”

“Then you did not know of his speculations?”

“No; he has been very secret about them.”

“Have you seen this young Ezra Winter?”

“If you describe him I will tell you.”

Ben described the man on the boat as well as he could.

“Yes, I have seen him on two or three occasions on his way to Mr.
Winter’s house. I have not been particularly impressed in his favor.”

“Nor has any one else, I believe.”

They were now approaching Wrayburn, and Ben began to look out
of the windows eagerly, as the well-remembered localities came in
sight.

As Mr. Bentham rose to leave the car he said, “If your stepfather
wants my assistance,” he said, “you can notify me.”

Ben got out on the platform of the small depot, with his gripsack
in his hand. He had no sooner set foot on the platform, when a glad
voice greeted him.
 “Why, Ben, is it you come back?”

Turning he saw Albert Graham.

“Yes, Albert, your friend has got back.”

“And you are looking fine.”

“I was never better.”

“You have grown taller. I have tried to, but I don’t think nature
intended me for a six-footer.”

“How is my mother?”

“She is so as to be about, but I don’t think she is looking as well

as when you went away.”

“How have you been getting on, Albert?”

“I haven’t made a fortune, but last week I made ten dollars by

riding at the county fair.”

“Good! I don’t think I shall ever make any money that way.”

“You will make more money in other ways.”

“Yes, Albert, I have been very fortunate.”

“I suppose you have brought home a thousand dollars,” said

Albert joking.

“A good deal more than that, Albert.”

“Honest Indian?”

“Yes, Albert, it is a sober fact. I’ll tell you all about it later. Now I
am anxious to get home as soon as I can.”
 When Ben reached the Winter farmhouse his mother and his
stepfather had sat down to dinner. It was a plain boiled dinner,
without a pudding, for since Jacob’s losses he had begun to pinch on
the table.

In a New England farmhouse, whatever the parsimony of the

farmer the table is not often affected.

“I ain’t got no appetite, Mrs. Winter,” said the farmer with a

querulous expression. “The dinner don’t taste as good as usual.”

“I think the fault is in you, Mr. Winter,” replied his wife. “Your
appetite has been very poor lately.”

“I’m on my way to the poorhouse,” said Jacob gloomily. “Things

have been going very bad.”

“Your crops are as good as usual.”

“I can’t help it. I am poor, Mrs. Winter, dreadfully poor.”

“Well, we will hope that luck will turn.”

At this moment the door of the kitchen where the table was
spread was thrown open, and Ben, ruddy and glowing, stepped in.

“Why, it’s Ben!” exclaimed Mrs. Winter, her heart overflowing with
joy.

Jacob Winter stared in surprise, but said nothing while Ben was
embracing his mother.

“And how well you are looking, Ben!”

“But you have fallen off, mother. Mr. Winter, I hope you are well.”

Jacob Winter yielded his hand reluctantly to the boy’s proffered

grasp.
 “We’re very badly off,” he said querulously, “and now you’ve came
back to live on us.”

“I think I shall be able to pay my way,” said Ben, smiling.

“I don’t believe you’ve got five dollars about you.”

Ben drew a five-dollar bill from his pocket. Mr. Winter looked at it
longingly. The sight of money always made him feel covetous.

“You owe me as much as that for goin’ away suddenly, and leavin’
me in the lurch,” he said.

“Take it, then. You are welcome to it.”

With a look of satisfaction on his rugged face Jacob drew out an

immense wallet and tucked the bill carefully away.

“You shall have your turn soon, mother,” said Ben, smiling.

“Have you been doin’ well, Ben?” asked Jacob, thawing a little.

“Pretty well, thank you. I can pay my way, Mr. Winter.”

“You’d better stay at home and pay board. I’ll take you for four
dollars a week.”

“I will think it over, Mr. Winter, but I think business will keep me in
New York. Who do you suppose came from New York on the boat
with me, Mr. Winter?”

“I ain’t good at guessin’.”

“Ezra Winter.”

Jacob half rose from the table, and his face grew dark and stern.

“That scoundrel!” he said. “He’s robbed me of my money.”

 “He intends to sail for Europe with all the money he can raise.”

Jacob fell back in his chair pale and dismayed.

“And I shall never see my money again!” he murmured.

“Yes; I have consulted Mr. Bentham the lawyer, and he will go to

Boston with you and have him arrested. He will be over in a hour to
talk the matter over.”

“I hope I’ll live long enough to see him rottin’ in jail!” said Jacob
vindictively. “He’s made me a poor man. You’re a smart boy, Ben,
and I thank you.”
 CHAPTER XL.

CONCLUSION.

Ezra Winter was sitting in his office in the Sears Building in Boston.
All his plans had been perfected, and he was prepared to reap the
fruit of his rascality.

He had gathered in between six and seven thousand dollars, and

on this he calculated that he could enjoy himself abroad for a
considerable time. Only two days more and he would sail.

While he was indulging in pleasant reflections, there was a knock

at his office door.

“Come in!” he cried.

The door opened, and Jacob Winter entered, followed by Ben.

Ezra Winter frowned, for his uncle was the last man he wished to
see. But he reflected that he was a simple old fellow, of whom he
would easily rid himself.

“Uncle Jacob!” he said. “What brings you to town?”

“I want my money,” replied the old man piteously, “I want the

money you took from me.”

“Really, Uncle Jacob, I don’t understand you. Your money is well

invested, and perfectly safe.”

“I want it now.”
 “Very good! I will sell out the stock for you, but you will have to
wait till Monday—the usual day for selling mining stock.”

“That won’t do, Ezry. You are goin’ to Europe on Saturday, and
mean to take all my money!”

“Who says this?” asked Ezra in great surprise, for he did not know
that his plan had leaked out.

“I say it,” said Ben.

“You—a mere boy! What do you know of me and my plans?”

“I was a passenger on the Fall River boat Tuesday night, Mr. Ezra
Winter, and I overheard you detailing your plans to a friend. You
proposed to carry off the money of your uncle and other customers
and leave them out in the cold.”

“That’s a lie!” said Ezra hoarsely, but he was frightened.

“It was not a lie.”

“I am not going to Europe on Saturday!”

“No, you are not, for we shall prevent you,” said Ben firmly.

“You, a half-grown boy!” rejoined Ezra contemptuously.

“No matter what I am. Your uncle wants his money, and must
have it.”

Ezra leaned back in his chair and looked at his visitors with an
impudent smile.

“Well, he can’t have it.”

Ben went to the door and exchanged a word with some one.
 Mr. Bentham, the lawyer, entered followed by a policeman.

“Mr. Winter,” said Bentham, “I hold a warrant for your arrest on

account of intended fraud. I may or may not have it served, but my
client here, your uncle, must have his money, or you go from here to
the station-house.”

At last Ezra was conquered. He was a coward at heart and he

dreaded the law.

“Perhaps we can arrange this matter, gentlemen,” he said.

In half an hour Jacob Winter left the office with two thousand, five
hundred dollars. Mr. Bentham recommended him to accept it as the
best settlement possible.

Ezra breathed a sigh of relief. He would still have four thousand

dollars of his dishonest accumulations.

But he reckoned without his host.

As the party were leaving the office one of Ezra’s customers saw
them and his suspicions were excited. He made some inquiries and it
led to his obtaining an order of arrest, so that Ezra, instead of sailing
for Europe on Saturday, passed that day in a police station.

He managed to escape trial and conviction by agreeing to

surrender his ill-gotten gains, and then disappeared from the scene.
He is understood to be in Montreal, but his days of prosperity are
gone by.

Jacob Winter went back to Wrayburn, but his system had received
a shock, and in about a year he died. His property went to relatives,
his wife at Ben’s request declining to accept anything beyond the
two thousand dollars which she had when she married him.
 Ben went back to New York, and after a year spent in study
accepted a position in a large commercial house, in which he may
some time own an interest.

Mr. Sylvanus Snodgrass is still electrifying the readers of the

Weekly Bugle by his startling romances. Mr. Cornelius Clyde, the
poet, still sticks to his business as a barber, as he finds that his
poetry brings him fame, but not money. Gloriana Podd’s name still
appears in the Poet’s Corner of weekly papers and magazines.

Ben, remembering his friends, has obtained a good position for

Albert Graham, and his cousin Adelbert frequently visits him.

Last year Ben went to England and visited his friend, Cyril Bentley,
at Bentley Hall. But he is a true American, and much as he may like
individual Englishmen he will never become an Anglicized American.

He keeps up the most friendly relations with Frank Mordaunt, who

is now a student at Columbia College, having a natural taste for
study. So the future looks bright for him, and those who have read
his story will agree that he really deserves his prosperity.

THE END.