WHAT MAKES MINERALS

AND METALS ‘CRITICAL’?

A practical guide to the attention of
governments to build resilient supply chains
DRAFT FOR CONSULTATION

Written by: Isabelle Ramdoo, Grégoire Bellois, Murtiani Hendriwardani

November 2023
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................1
2.0 Objectives .............................................................................................................................................2
3.0 How do we assess whether a mineral or a metal is critical (or not)? ..............................................3
3.1 Key steps to define the mineral scope for strategic considerations ..........................................3
3.2 Step 1: Understanding criticality ....................................................................................................4
3.2.1 Key characteristics that define criticality: ................................................................................6
4.0 Step 2: Know your resources and their uses and assess the associated risks ..............................9
4.1 Key questions to guide the criticality assessment ........................................................................9
4.1.1 Geological considerations. ................................................................................................... 11
4.1.2 Production, macroeconomic and market considerations ................................................. 12
4.1.3 Industrial development considerations ............................................................................... 15
4.1.4 Fiscal considerations .............................................................................................................. 17
4.1.5 Social and environmental considerations ........................................................................... 19
4.1.6 Geopolitical considerations .................................................................................................. 20
4.1.7 Governance, legal and regulatory considerations ............................................................. 21
5.0 Step 3: Strategic considerations. .................................................................................................... 26
5.1 National priorities .......................................................................................................................... 26
5.2 Regional initiatives ........................................................................................................................ 27
5.3 Global responsibilities .................................................................................................................. 28
6.0 Step 4: Review ................................................................................................................................... 30
7.0 Next Steps.......................................................................................................................................... 31
8.0 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 32
References ............................................................................................................................................... 33
Annex I: List of Critical Minerals in the European Union, United Kingdom, United States, Canada,
and Australia ............................................................................................................................................ 35
Annex II: Mapping selected minerals and metals against clean energy and digital technologies 37
Annex III: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding geological consideration ............. 39
Annex IV: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding production, economic and market
considerations ......................................................................................................................................... 41
Annex V: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding social and environment
considerations ......................................................................................................................................... 48
Annex VI: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding geopolitical considerations ......... 50
Annex VII: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding governance, legal and regulatory
issues ........................................................................................................................................................ 52
Annex VIII: Where critical and conflict minerals overlap .................................................................... 55

ii
1.0 Introduction
Minerals and metals are the backbone of our modern society. These crucial elements are the
building blocks that drive economic, social, and technological advancement. They serve as
vital feedstocks for our food systems and are indispensable inputs for our industrial
development.

Global trends and calls to action, such as the imperatives to address climate change, notably
by moving away from a fossil-fuels based economic model and the increasing digitalization of
our society, will require a rapid adoption of a suite of technologies that are highly mineral
intensive. As recent analysis suggests (see IEA, 2023, World Bank, 2019), these systemic
changes in our industrial and societal models have led to an exponential rise in demand for
minerals and metals and forecasts predict that the upward trend in demand is likely to
continue at an accelerated pace.

Forecasts however indicate that the increasing demand for minerals and metals is unlikely to
be met by a corresponding pace in mineral supply, at least in the short- to medium term.

It is therefore expected that in the years to come, production of and access to minerals and
metals that are essential to the manufacturing of digital, decarbonization and energy
transition technologies will be at the top of the political and economic agenda of many
governments and influence strategic decisions and alliances at various levels, namely at
bilateral, regional and global levels. These will fundamentally reshape the markets for
minerals and metals that are essential for the energy and digital transitions, indistinctly
impacting all supply chain actors, albeit in different ways.

1
2.0 Objectives
This practical guide provides a series of questions that may guide governments when
considering the design of strategic policies and roadmaps with respect to minerals and metals
they produce and/ or need for resilient industrial supply chains.

The aim is to support governments in crafting their own definitions and lists of what should be
considered as ‘strategic’ or ‘critical’, based on their mineral endowments, on their national
development objectives and priorities, on their decarbonization and industrialization
pathways, and on their importance (and role) in global supply chains.

This practical guide provides a (non-exhaustive) set of questions and indicators that
governments may want to consider when conducting a thorough assessment of the risks
associated with their critical or strategic minerals and metals. While criticality assessments are
mainly aimed at identifying risks, indicators provided in this practical guide are also aimed at
identifying strategic opportunities that can be leveraged to maximize the benefits from the
rising demand for minerals and metals.

2
3.0 How do we assess whether a mineral or
a metal is critical (or not)?
Minerals and metals are not equally distributed in the Earth’s crust, which means that some
minerals are highly concentrated in a handful of countries. This physical characteristic of
mining is at the source of several potential risks and challenges that may, in turn, impact
mineral value chains and their related supply chains. Risks differ across producing and
destination countries and across different industries or sectors that require minerals and
metals as inputs in their production.

The rising demand related to the energy and digital transitions, the growing complexity of
global supply chains and the geopolitical tensions these dynamics have generated have
exacerbated the risks. To manage the growing risks associated with access to, and production
of, minerals, countries and industries who are most vulnerable to supply disruptions have
undertaken risk assessments (also called ‘criticality assessments’) to better identify sources of
vulnerabilities, understand pinch points along mining production value chains as well as
related weaknesses in the global supply chains.

In the meantime, countries with a dominant position as producers of minerals and metals in
high demand are increasingly taking a strong stance to position themselves as strategic
partners. Cognizant of their bargaining powers and of their geopolitical strengths, many have
also developed critical or strategic minerals policies. Objectives differ from those who are
vulnerable to supply shocks and are instead aimed at strengthening their positions and
protect interests. Arguments for a greater control over the supply of minerals vary from
developing resilient domestic industrial capacities and supply chains, to political positioning
to become suppliers of choice. In some cases, strong nationalistic positions are a response to
retaliate over measures taken by competing countries.

3.1 Key steps to define the mineral scope for strategic

considerations
The following section provides a 4-steps approach that include a series of key questions and
indicators aimed at providing policymakers with a toolbox to assess the extent to which
minerals and metals are ‘critical’ or ‘strategic’, based on what they consider as national
priorities and global responsibilities. To fully assess the criticality or the strategic importance
of minerals and metals, governments are advised to undertake a thorough assessment of risks
and opportunities of the entire mineral supply chain.

The approach proposed in this section is a dynamic one. When there are changes in
circumstances, whether at domestic, regional or global levels, policymakers need to take a
step back and re-assess their priorities accordingly. It is also advisable for policymakers to
review the criticality assessment on a regular basis (on average every three years).

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Figure 1: A four steps approach to identify indicators to assess criticality and define
strategic interests.

Understanding
‘criticality’

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

Stocktaking and risk Making strategic decision Review process

mapping

Source: Authors

3.2 Step 1: Understanding criticality

The first and perhaps the most important step before making any policy choices is to define
which minerals and metals should be considered critical and/ or strategic. This step is key for
producing and destination countries alike.

While the rationale is well understood, there is however no universally agreed definition of
what is ‘critical’ or ‘strategic’ or what minerals and metals should be considered as such.
Nonetheless, there are common denominators to keep in mind when determining what is
‘critical’ and/or ‘strategic’, and these include economic importance, demand and supply risks,
and dominant suppliers.

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 Terminologies | Critical or strategic: Are these terms synonymous?

In the prevailing discourse, the term "critical minerals" has been commonly and widely used by
countries with significant industrial capabilities to manufacture energy and digital technological
solutions, but with important deficits in domestic mineral production. For these countries, the use of
the term "critical minerals" refers to those elements that are needed for their key industries. Given
their (over)reliance on external markets, their policies are driven by security of supply to overcome
vulnerabilities and risks of shortages or supply disruptions.

On the other hand, countries that produce or extract these minerals often prefer to refer to them as
"strategic minerals", because these minerals are of crucial importance to their domestic economies
and can potentially confer them with a position of strength as suppliers of choice to destination
countries. In some countries (in the US for example), the term ‘strategic’ refers to minerals essential
for the defense industry. In this case, both terminologies are used, and strategic minerals are a
subset of critical minerals.

While there are significant overlaps in the scope of critical and strategic minerals, there are major
differences in approach, which reflect national priorities, industrial competitiveness and choice of
global partners.

Acknowledging that each country assigns different characteristics to the terms strategic and critical,
in this report, we will use the term ‘critical’ since it is the most commonly and widely used term.

In the current literature, ‘criticality’ assessments are mainly driven by downstream supply chain
actors 1. They are aimed at identifying and evaluating risks associated with the supply of
minerals that are needed by countries that have a deficit in production and for specific
industries or applications (Schrijvers et al. 2020; DOE, 2023). Motivations and perspectives
may vary if the stakeholder is a company, a specific industry (such as renewable energy and
digital technologies), a country, or a region (Schrijvers et. Al, 2020).

The outcomes of these assessments are generally the adoption of critical minerals strategies
associated with a mineral scope 2, which are then used as important levers for policymakers
and industrial players to make informed decisions regarding current and future investment
plans, strategies to negotiate trade and global partnership agreements, and engagements in
global policy agenda, among other things.

1
For detailed literature reviews on critical minerals see Helbig & el. 2006; Achzet & Helbig. 2013; Viebahn et al.
2015; McCullough & Nassar, 2017; Hayes & McCullogh, 2018; Schrijvers et al. 2020; Takuma et al. 2020; McNutty
& Joewitt. 2021.
2
See Annex I for a comparative list of critical minerals as identified by the EU, US, Canada, Australia and the UK.

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3.2.1 Key characteristics that define criticality include:
(i) Demand and supply risks

Assessing risks associated with the demand of critical minerals, such as industrial demand
related to the energy and digital transitions, or potential changes in technologies that may
affect future demand as well as risks associated with supply, such as social and environmental
risks, geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism are key factors in defining criticality.

(ii) Production volume

Minerals and metals may be critical because they are only produced in low volumes, while the
demand is high. In fact, it is estimated that more than 60% of minerals and metals considered
as ‘critical’ by the US, EU, Canada or Australia 3 are not mined for themselves. They are minor
metals, mainly extracted as co- or by-products of other major minerals and metals (IGF, 2023)
and therefore are available in smaller volumes. They are considered as having higher levels of
risk because their supply is generally quite inelastic in the short term because their production
is highly dependent on the technical feasibility and/or economic sustainability of the host
metal extraction processes 4.

(iii) Uses and Applications

It is important to note however that the criticality of a mineral or a metal does not refer only to
the latter’s availability. It is also linked to specific technologies (see Annex II for a mapping of
digital and energy transition technologies against critical minerals), and to the pace of
technological development, and hence used when stakeholders want to call for (political)
attention about the security of access to the supply of the mineral in question.

(iv) Time factor

Criticality also depends on the time dimension: the indicators of criticality evolve over time
and is assessed differently in the short term and long term. What is critical today might not be
critical in a few years, because new sources of production may emerge, including at the
national level, substitution can be found, or technology may change, requiring different
volumes of the mineral in question or different sets of minerals altogether, hence potentially
reducing the risks associated with supply for some minerals or increasing risks for others.

3
For example, associated with Lead-zinc-silver there are 75% of indium, 65% of germanium; almost 100% of
gallium is associated with Aluminium; and 50% of cobalt and palladium is co-produced with Nickel.
4
For a more comprehensive overview of how metals are produced and associated together, see IGF, 2023.

6
 Criticality: Time matters

Technological evolution is illustrated by the historic change of mobility vehicles at the beginning of the
20th century. In 1900, there were practically no motor vehicles but the rapid deployment of the first cars
meant that within a span of 20 years, horse-driven carriages were almost wiped out from large cities in
the US. This historic change has drastically affected entire industries, their supply chains and
subsequently the demand for minerals and metals.

Mineral intensity in various technologies can also evolve spectacularly, and the move towards e-mobility
is more copper-intensive. For instance, with current technologies, a conventional internal combustion
engine car requires on average, 25 kg of copper. For an equivalent size of vehicle, a hybrid car requires
on average 50 kg of copper, while an electric vehicle needs 75 kg of copper (IEA, 2021 5).

(v) Stakeholders’ position in the supply chain

The understanding of the notion of criticality can vary, depending on where stakeholders are
positioned in the mining supply chain at a point in time. Midstream and downstream
stakeholders and destination countries generally consider criticality from the security of
supply of minerals and metals they do not produce or produce only in limited quantity. Recent
developments have shown that countries are increasingly ramping up efforts to explore
domestic mineral reserves and identity potential areas for the discovery of mineral deposits.
Examples of countries increasing their exploration activities include France, Saudi Arabia,
Laos PDR, and the Philippines. Criticality assessment from this particular security of supply
perspective will consider issues such as the degree of import dependency, economic
importance for industrial use, risks of supply shortages, the expected mix of clean energy
technologies that the country will develop or adopt and geopolitical challenges, amongst
others.

For upstream stakeholders, such as mineral producing countries and related domestic
industries, criticality assessment is both a strategic and a risk consideration. From a risk
management perspective, mineral producing countries and domestic industries will consider
issues such as their degree of dependency on and concentration of export markets, the
degree of fiscal revenue reliance, the risks related to changes in demand due to, for example
technological changes, availability of substitutions to replace the mineral or policies from
import-dependent countries to diversify away from their markets, as well as social and
environmental impacts of mining, overall. Criticality assessment will consider the types of
minerals available, the type and quality of deposits, and the economic viability of developing
the resources.

Mineral producing countries have a strategic role to play as key suppliers to countries and
industries that are further downstream. Arguably, mineral producing countries can leverage

5
“The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions.” International Energy Agency, 2021, 6.

7
their mineral resources as bargaining power to develop their own industrial and value
addition capacities, notably through investments and partnerships. Currently, very few
producing countries have conducted similar criticality assessments. Few exceptions include
Australia and Canada, who are both major producers and industrial actors, and who are
positioning themselves as partners of choice with key midstream and downstream
stakeholders.

Criticality assessment from mineral producing countries: debunking a misconception

Among developing countries who are major critical minerals producers, it is often (wrongly)
perceived that criticality assessments are not necessary if countries are well endowed with minerals
or are net exporters thereof.

In fact, risk assessments are equally, if not more important for mineral producing countries for several
reasons. First, economies are globally interdependent, and therefore measures taken to mitigate
risks by destination countries will necessarily have implications for mineral producing countries. If not
well understood, analyzed and anticipated, risks mitigation strategies may create new challenges and
vulnerabilities for producing countries which may eventually have repercussions on their mining
sectors and on their policy choices.

In addition, many mineral producing countries, in particular those with relatively undiversified
economies and high dependencies on few mineral exports, are less resilient to external policies and
shocks and therefore are likely to be disproportionately impacted by policies aimed at managing
risks elsewhere.

Finally, while the demand for minerals needed for the energy and digital transitions is likely to
continue to grow, the risks associated with supply shortages or disruptions may eventually be
managed and addressed. The focus on their ‘critical’ nature are therefore likely to change, which may
impact the ability of mineral producing countries to leverage their geopolitical strengths to become
suppliers of choice. Criticality assessment therefore can provide strategic insights in that regard.

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4.0 Step 2: Know your resources and their
uses and assess the associated risks
For policymakers, in mineral producing countries in particular, having a strategic vision for
their mining industry is important, irrespective of whether they are planning to identify or
classify certain minerals as strategic or critical, or not, or develop another category (e.g.,
Brazil). In that context, it is crucial to conduct criticality assessments to inform the country’s
long-term strategic objectives.

The exercise will allow countries to identify opportunities to leverage the benefits from
minerals in high demand for the energy transition and digital technologies and for their wider
development needs. It will also help countries improve their mineral policies and address
bottlenecks that may prevent the implementation of domestic industrial policies and global
commitments with key buyers and trading partners.

As a foundation for strategic decision-making, the second step therefore is to take stock of
various factors that impact the demand and supply of minerals to get a deep understanding of
the availability and accessibility of mineral resources, of their industrial uses (domestic and
global), and of trends in global markets and geopolitical dynamics surrounding these
minerals. The main outcome of the stock-taking and risk mapping exercise is to identify a
comprehensive list of minerals and metals, which will then inform the strategic decision (Step
3) about the scope and list of critical minerals that a country wants to adopt.

4.1 Key questions to guide the criticality assessment

To conduct the stock-taking exercise, governments need to gather as much data and
information as possible, from multiple sources, to get a deeper understanding of their mineral
resources, their use and applications and global trends driving the demand for their
resources. Information gathered should be disclosed to ensure transparency and
accountability.

Based on the information gathered, governments should define a preliminary set of minerals
that they may want to further investigate and monitor more closely.

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 The importance of conducting the assessment despite possible data gaps

This section provides a comprehensive list of questions. While this might seem complex and time
consuming, the objective is for governments to gather as much information as possible on their
mining sector to be able to conduct an informed risks assessment.

We acknowledge however that data and information may not always be available or up-to-date or
may be incomplete. Also, some countries may not have systems in place to collect and process the
information gathered or may not have historical data in a format that can be easily exploited or made
available. Other countries may have smaller or nascent mining sectors, and therefore may not have
sufficient historical data to inform longer-term policies. In that case, we encourage countries to
collect the basic information they may have, and work towards improving their database, to ensure
they can improve their analysis in the future.

Despite these challenges, governments should nonetheless attempt to conduct the stock-taking
exercise to the best of their ability and improve on the assessment as data gaps are filled.

This section is organised in 5 sub-sections, as follows:

(i) Geological considerations: Identifying the sources and geographical location of

mineral production, notably by mapping the geological ore bodies and occurrences
for major and minor minerals, in terms of resources, reserves and production at the
domestic level and assessing global supplies and potentials.
(ii) Economic, market, and fiscal considerations: Assessing actual and forecasted
industrial needs, by mineral, by sector and by application 6. The analysis should take a
holistic approach across the value chain and supply chain, to identify potential
bottlenecks and weaknesses at all levels. It should also consider how demand can
affect by- and co- products differently (see IGF, 2023), and whether the current fiscal
regime is fit for purpose.
(iii) Social and environmental considerations: Assessing the impacts of current (and
future) mining activities on the social fabric and on the environment. These should
inform the subsequent question of what policies to prioritise based on the strategic
mineral list.
(iv) Geopolitical considerations with a focus on global trade tensions, pinch points in the
global supply chains and other countries’ critical minerals assessments and de-risking
strategies.
(v) Governance, legal and regulatory issues: national policy frameworks and
instruments that may impact mineral production and trade, global standards (such as
responsible sourcing obligations), industry standards and requirements (such as ESG

6
This should include current and estimated future domestic and global demand, potential changes in demand due
to changes technologies, substitutions or availability of new sources of supplies, potential changes in domestic or
global supply, key market considerations such as price volatility, levels of investments; government incentives;
trade restrictions.

10
 reporting requirements), that may have an impact on demand and supply of minerals
and on specific countries/ regions.

Each sub-section highlights the main questions that are relevant to the stock taking and risk
mapping exercise. Annexes III – VII, organised according the 5 sub-sections mentioned above,
provide a comprehensive checklist of information and data that are relevant to inform the
exercise. The Annexes also provide a set of performance indicators that can be used to
measure risks that may impact the design and implementation of the strategic policies that
governments may consider adopting.

4.1.1 Geological considerations.

Information gathered under this section allows governments to determine the importance of
their geological potential, by type of minerals and by grade and hence gauge the potential
strength in the upstream part of the mineral value chain. It is important to make sure potential
of co-products and by-products are well documented, as a significant number of minerals and
metals needed for the energy transition and digital technologies are minor elements.

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 1. What minerals are available in my country?

This question is aimed at conducting a detailed assessment of domestic mineral production capacity.
Geological consideration informs how deposits are exploited, which in turn allows for a better
understanding of the potential future risks.

Information gathered should include detailed geological information on mineral occurrences,

estimated reserves and resources with details about their sub-national locations. Geological data
should be classified by types of minerals.

Geological information should include quality of ore bodies, associated elements in the ore bodies,
(whether in commercially exploitable quantity or not), minerals associated with problematic
elements.

Governments should map out the location of resources that may overlap with biodiversity hotspots
and conservation areas, water bodies, or land of indigenous people etc.

Annex III provides a checklist of information that are needed to get a good understanding of the
geological potential of a country and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Possible risk factors to consider:

 Depletion time of reserves

 Risk of temporary scarcity, due to technical feasibility; political issues (sanctions); geopolitical
issues

 Levels of risk in country, including political risks; risks of corruption and risk of conflict that
may impact decisions to invest.

4.1.2 Production, macroeconomic and market considerations

Besides maintaining an updated geological knowledge, it is necessary to keep track of
historical exploration and production data, by value and volume. This will allow governments
to have a deeper understanding of the country’s position in the upstream mineral value chain,
compared to other producing countries, and to assess the associated risks. The analysis is
needed to develop strategic plans on the use of minerals resources domestically and
determine what is needed to develop downstream capabilities.

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2. How much do I produce?

Information gathered on domestic production will help identify a preliminary list of minerals for
further investigations. Information should cover all size of mining activities and all minerals identified
above. It should consider all minerals associated together, as co-products and by-products. The
analysis should be done in comparison to other global producers.

Information should include mineral production by size of mining activities and by types of
commodities (in volume and in value). Governments need to estimate the importance of each
mineral produced in total mining in-country and globally. All potential sources of supply should be
considered, including production from artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), where relevant from
reprocessing of waste rocks or tailing; and from recycling of end-product wastes.

Measuring the importance of the mining production in the national economy and on the global
scene is key to inform national development programmes as well as diversification strategies.
Particular attention should be given on minerals that contribute significantly to the national income
(in terms of fiscal or export revenues) and governments may want to further investigate how strategic
they may be for the country.

Annex IV provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Possible risk factors to consider:

 Price volatility
 (Non-transparent or absence of) pricing of minerals (including for minor elements)
 Risks of substitutability
 Technological change
 Risks associated with informality or illegal mining.
 Stockpiling strategies of third countries

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3. How important is the mining sector to my country?

Information gathered about the domestic mining sector will help provide a macroeconomic overview
on how the mining sector contributes to the income of the nation, either through fiscal revenues,
export revenues, investments and/or employment.

Information should include:

Economic contribution of the mining sector to national income, fiscal revenues, export revenues,
employment. This will help governments assess how dependent they are on the mining industry, and
take the necessary measures to manage associated risks and vulnerabilities. Data on investment
flows into the production and value chain of specific minerals are important to assess the strategic
interests of global mining actors. Governments also need to assess how much resources they invest
domestically in R&D and innovation, which are key to supply chain development. They may also want
to incentivise private sector investment in R&D, including through public - private research
partnerships to foster innovation. In that regard, they may need to reinforce their domestic
intellectual property regulations to protect innovation and industrial designs.

Detailed information on producing companies as well as refining and smelting companies, whether
domestic or foreign. This information is necessary to assess in-country capacity to beneficiate mineral
production. Historical data on exploration budgets, number and types of companies involved as well
as types of transactions conducted (such as M&As; JVs etc.) must be tracked and analysed.
Importantly, ownership structures of foreign mining companies should be understood as they may
have geopolitical implications.

Detailed information on trade flows and trade measures in place are essential to assess the
importance of specific markets, identify key partners and assess the level of dependency (import and
export), which may be a source of risk and vulnerability, both for the producing country and the
importing partner country. The presence of trade measures on specific minerals also signals some
level of strategic importance and these should be examined in details, particularly in terms of their
implications on the domestic economy or the foreign market.

Annex IV provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Degree on mineral trade dependency (imports and exports)
 Impact of trade barriers on country’s competitiveness
 Impact of trade barriers on fiscal revenues
 Impact of trade barriers on production costs
 Impact of third countries’ trade barriers on domestic value chains
 Investment risks for related to price volatility; fiscal policies; trade barriers

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4.1.3 Industrial development considerations
Data gathered in this section provides the basis to assess existing and potential industrial
capabilities based on domestic mineral production when available, as well as an indication of
the country’s reliance on external sourcing when there is a gap in domestic supply.

This analysis allows governments to design risk mitigation and management policies to properly
and timely address domestic and external risks. For instance, countries that are highly
dependent on mining face higher risks if there are significant changes in global demand, in
technologies requiring the minerals they export, or in investment decisions.

Gathering a holistic picture of the mining landscape from an industrial perspective is also
relevant for strategic thinking about ownership of key mining assets. Even if countries do not
yet have significant industrial production capabilities, based on their endowments, it is
important nonetheless to assess potential future use against mineral production and
accessibility.

15
 4. Which minerals are essential to my country’s strategic objectives?

Information gathered in this section is crucial to assess current industrial capacities and the extent
and degree of self-sufficiency or of reliance on third sources, which is a necessary preliminary
analysis when defining criticality.

Information should include industrial policies and roadmaps, with a focus on how the mineral sector
will contribute to industrial activities. These plans should include which priority sectors have been
identified for the use of domestic mining production and the level of domestic demand (current and
forecasted) anticipated for an agreed period of time.

Information should also include an assessment of the current demand of minerals and metals, to
fulfill the needs of current industrial sector. Considerations should be given to expected
development plans and is anticipated in national industrial strategies.

If the country has significant mineral production, analysis should identify existing downstream
capabilities as well as future plans by type of minerals. When capabilities exist already, data on
existing and forecasted production volumes by type of minerals should be collected. Historical
information about plans that may not have succeeded must be collected and reasons for failures
need to be examined. Any plans to build new facilities should be identified.

Annex IV provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risks factor to consider:

 Technological changes that may impact on mineral intensity or mineral needs.
 Geopolitical risks related to sourcing of inputs not produced domestically.
 Bottlenecks that may negatively affect investment plans and downstream industrial plans.
 Level of dependence on parts of the supply chains not present in the country.

Recent years have put forward vulnerabilities in mineral supply chains, resulting from several
factors which are often interdependent. Geopolitical tensions over access to mineral
feedstocks, pinch points in supply chains, and strategic needs have all contributed to design,
implementation and financing of ‘critical minerals’ strategies. Led initially by advanced
economies, an increasing number of emerging economies that want to position themselves
across various parts of the global supply chains for energy and digital technologies have
announced similar strategies. More recently, producing countries have joined the
bandwagon.

16
 5. Are there any minerals that I do not produce (or not sufficiently produce) but are key to my
domestic industries?

Information gathered about minerals not or insufficiently produced will help inform a preliminary
identification of which minerals are available domestically, and therefore could be considered as
‘strategic’ for various reasons and which ones are not sufficiently available (or not available at all), and
therefore could be considered as ‘critical’.

Information should include the analysis of mineral feedstocks needed for domestic industrial
development and how much countries produce locally and/or need to import. For minerals available
locally, it is important to assess whether those minerals are likely to be sufficiently available over time
both for domestic needs and to meet international demand.

As countries seek to build their capabilities for local value chains, they may start importing mineral
feedstocks as inputs for local manufacturing. Governments therefore need to have a good
understanding of their levels of dependency on minerals and metals that are not available locally (or
available in insufficient amount), to be able to assess, anticipate and manage any risks associated
with security of supply. Methodologies used by the EU, the US, the UK, Australia or Canada provide
good examples for conducting such assessments.

Annex IV provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Level of concentration of minerals production not produced in country.
 Level of dependency on imports
 Geopolitical risks associated with the supply of minerals not produced in-country.
 Regulatory frameworks in third countries.
 Conflicts such as those linked to war or political stability.

4.1.4 Fiscal considerations

Within the context of the surging demand for the minerals and metals necessary for the
energy and digital transitions, these set of questions will help examine whether – and to what
extent – current fiscal approaches and policies are fit for purpose or require adjustments to
ensure that resource rich countries collect an appropriate share of the financial benefits
arising from the extraction of their critical minerals. The information can also inform whether
(or not) and what types of fiscal policies and incentives can be given to support the
development of midstream and downstream supply chains.

17
6. Will current fiscal approaches and policies ensure that producing countries collect an
appropriate share of the financial benefits arising from the extraction of their critical minerals?
Are current financial tools sufficient to incentivise local industrial development?

Recognizing the importance of critical minerals to advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, the
future of transportation and the future of technology, this set of questions tests the extent to which
existing fiscal instruments and administrative practices remain fit for purpose.

While the fundamentals of fiscal policies are likely to remain largely the same, including with respect
to critical minerals, governments may want to reflect on whether the rising demand for critical
minerals require a recalibration of existing financial benefit sharing systems and instruments. And if
so, what types of instruments would be relevant in that context.

Governments are recommended to examine current practices regarding pricing and valuation, with
regards to specific minerals or to mine wastes and tailings that may contain commercially exploitable
concentrations of critical minerals. Current fiscal regimes will need to be assessed on that basis.

To optimise financial benefits that may be derived from higher demand for some critical minerals,
governments may want to give higher consideration to issues such as ringfencing, tax incentives,
state participation, ownership of mining rights by large end users in the value chain, and
administrative capacity for tax administration, amongst others.

To support the development of local industrial capabilities and foster R&D and innovation,
government may want to assess what types of incentives would be required to stimulate investments
in supply chains. Incentives could take the form of fiscal instruments or non-fiscal instruments such as
concessional access to finance for local firms, duty-free imports of inputs and equipment or the
creation special economic zones.

Annex IV provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Undervalued minerals production affects government revenues
 Under-priced or lack of transparency in pricing mechanisms affects government revenues.
 Risks of base erosion profit shifting
 Risks of transfer pricing
 Missed opportunity to leverage the benefits of rising demand.
 Corruption
 Market distortions as a result of incentives

18
4.1.5 Social and environmental considerations
Companies that fail to consult and engage with communities will face backlash from mining
affected communities. Acquiring and maintaining the so-called ‘’social licence to operate’’
should therefore be a key aspect of any criticality assessment and of any mineral strategy to
secure mineral production. As demand for critical minerals increase, unresolved tensions may
be exacerbated, posing risks to mining projects.

7. What are the key social issues I need to consider to constructively engage with mining
communities and ensure benefits for society at large?
Information gathered in this section provide an overview of the social landscape and issues that are
relevant to secure the mining social license to operate, provide a platform to consult local communities
for ownership of mining projects and manage relationship with indigenous communities, ensure local
community development and build resilience.

Information should include detailed and historical databases and geographical maps of mining projects
that coexist with local communities. Particular attention should be placed on potential overlap between
mining projects and community-owned land, including indigenous and ancestral land, where applicable.
Where required by law and to the extent possible, governments should ensure they maintain a
repository of community development agreement plans as well as projects executed under those plans.
They must ensure they keep track of conflicts with communities over time, as ownership of companies
change hands.
When relevant, implementation of local content policies, such as requirements for local employment;
business opportunities and shared infrastructure, need to be monitored and assessed (disaggregated by
gender where possible).
Annex V provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to inform
their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risks factors to consider:

 Historical tensions/ conflicts with local communities
 Tensions with communities over land rights
 Human rights abuses and gender-based violence

Likewise, should there be significant environmental risks, producing countries will not be able
to develop or expand mining projects without or against the consent of their population, and
in particular of communities that live close to mine sites.

Mining is the industrial sector that generates the biggest volume of wastes. It is a highly
energy and water intensive activity, usually associated with negative externalities such as
water and air pollution. The sector already faces growing oppositions from communities,
which are sometimes linked to human rights abuses. Expansion of mining activities can
increase potential conflicts over access to water and land use with local communities. There

19
are real concerns that measures to fast-track mineral development projects may be conducted
at the expense of appropriate consultations, further antagonizing relationships with local
communities.

8. What environmental issues are essential for the sustainability of my mining sector?

It is key to make sure sufficient and appropriate safeguards are in place to avoid creating or
exacerbating environmental challenges. Information gathered in this section will help governments
monitor the sustainability of the mining sector from an environmental perspective.

Assessing the impacts of mining activities on the environment, as well as the interconnected effect of
climate change on mining activities, would enable governments to put in place the necessary
safeguards to address the environmental impacts of mining activities. Data gathered should include
historical account of impacts of mining activities on the environment, water quality, availability, use
and access to water rights, impact of mining on air quality, as well as potential overlaps between
mining activities and biodiversity amongst others.

Assessing the extent to which climate change that induces new environmental conditions (more
frequent and more intense climatic events), is expected to impact mining operations and
surrounding communities, is necessary to implement mitigation measures to build resilient mining
operations and supply chains.

Annex V provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Externalities such as water, soil and air pollution
 Tensions with other stakeholders over water rights
 Biodiversity sensitivity
 Environmental risks associated with technologies used to process ore grades 7.

4.1.6 Geopolitical considerations

Analysis of the information regarding the types of policies and strategies being deployed
elsewhere (e.g., industrial policies to develop local capabilities; trade policies to secure
access to minerals; political alliances amongst groups of third partners), will provide a better
understanding of how they can or will have impacts on producing countries.

7
For example, the High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) technology used in Indonesia, although necessary to process
low grade laterite ore, might appear as an environmental ticking bomb that could ultimately disrupt nickel supply.

20
 9. Which minerals are considered as ‘critical’ for my main trading partners and what are their
key industrial uses in those markets?

Information on criteria used by destination countries to define ‘criticality’ will provide a good
understanding of challenges linked to different aspects of supply chains and the associated
geostrategic implications.

Global policies will significantly impact demand and supply of critical minerals and reshuffle supply
chains. Governments therefore need to assess the implications of global strategies on critical
minerals on their mining sector.

Information gathered must cover the following issues:

Understanding criticality as defined by main trading partners, assessing the mineral scope of their
definitions, the industries and technologies for which they are relevant, and measures taken by
partner countries to manage and mitigate risks.

The role of the country in global supply chains, i.e., what is the share of the country’s exports of
critical minerals to partner countries that have critical minerals strategies and in global demand,
more generally. Governments also need to get data on other sources of supplies, to assess their
bargaining power.

Understanding global needs, i.e., having a good understanding of major technologies that require
such critical minerals are important to find alternative markets in case measures taken to address
criticality leads to a switch to other ‘less risky’ minerals.

Annex VI provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Without a clear domestic strategy, pressure from international partners to sign bilateral
agreements.
 De-risking policies in partner countries to mitigate risks may have unintended consequences
on producing countries.
 Search for alternative sources can impact producing countries.
 Orientations in R&D to de-risk supply chain vulnerabilities may accelerate technological
changes, with different mineral feedstock needs

4.1.7 Governance, legal and regulatory considerations

As countries design or review their policies to consider the rising demand for minerals and
metals, it is important to have a good overview of how regulatory frameworks evolved over
time, and ensure coherence and consistency, in particular, with regards to future
development plans. Domestic regulations give important signals to foreign partners
(investors, trading partners, etc.) and therefore must be in line with national development
ambitions, while remaining consistent with their international commitments.

21
Most countries have legal obligations at the international level, through agreements signed
over the years, with investors and/or with trading partners. As development ambitions evolve,
domestic measures taken may not always be compatible with bilateral and multilaterals
agreements already in place. Governments may therefore have to design other types of
measures (with similar effects) or engage their partners to avoid legal disputes.

Furthermore, there could also be several industry-to-industry agreements in place, such as off-
takes or long-term supply contracts, or even deals such as infrastructure financed by external
partners in exchange of natural resources. These deals may have already committed a large
share of minerals production to trading partners. Governments should track and monitor
these agreements and assess their implications, namely on the availability of mineral
resources for domestic uses, and on other issues such as revenue collection.

22
 10. What policies, legislations, regulations have an impact on my mining sector?

This question is aimed at taking stock of policies and obligations at various levels – national, regional
and international.

Governments need to map out all existing domestic policies 8, measures and instruments that can
impact the mining sector, covering the entire life cycle of the mine. In particular, gaps must be
identified so that plans to explore, produce, reprocess tailings etc. are not held back by regulatory
bottlenecks and that there is no trade-off regarding sustainable mining practices.

It is recommended that governments gather information regarding ESG policies and performance
indicators from mining companies, to ensure a level playing field in terms of sustainable mining
practices from all industrial actors, including from state-owned companies, operating in their
territories.

With regards to international agreements and partnerships, it is necessary to keep track of all
bilateral and international agreements that could be relevant for critical minerals. These include for
example trade and investment agreements, scientific and technical cooperation or infrastructure for
resource deals. The impacts of those agreements for the mining sector and on national or regional
development goals must be regularly assessed.

Governments are advised to regularly assess domestic policies and incentives aimed at supporting
industrial development.

Where possible, governments need to take stock of other types of agreements, such as long-term
supply contracts and off-take agreements that mining companies may have signed with trading
partners or with supply chain actors. The nature and time frame of these deals need to be
understood as they may impact the ability of local industries to access critical minerals, when
required for domestic manufacturing industries.

Annex VII provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Regulatory bottlenecks impact on the ability to start mining operations.
 Pressure to mine more may have unintended negative consequences due to gaps in
regulations.
 Trade and investment agreements limit policy space of governments to meet development
goals.
 Restrictive domestic trade and investment instruments impact on global supply chains.
 Industry-to-industry agreements limit the ability of local industries to access critical minerals

8
Examples of policies include mining codes; environmental regulations; mining contracts; local content policies;
beneficiation strategies; regulations that already identify specific types of minerals for specific purposes.

23
Governments need to make sure that regulatory frameworks are in line with good governance
practices at the global level. Global frameworks exist to address corruption, human rights
abuses and transparency and accountability, amongst others in the mining sector. At the same
time, mining companies are also engaged in voluntary sustainability standards.

11. What global governance frameworks are applicable to my mining sector?

This question is aimed at understanding how global sustainability governance frameworks impact
mining activities and whether global processes are owned and implemented at national level.

Sustainability initiatives in the mining sector, including voluntary standards, play a key role in
advancing good practices and in informing governments, consumers and investors how minerals are
explored and sourced. They have been used to attempt to provide solutions to mitigate impacts on
the local communities, society, and the environment. The rise in demand for critical minerals is likely
to lead to more mining activities. It is recommended that Governments promote and enable
responsible and sustainable mining practices to minimize the potential negative impacts and avoid
unintended consequences for local communities and the environment, associated with increased
activities.

In countries where challenges associated with risks of conflicts exist, governments need to engage
actively in global discussions related to conflict minerals given that some critical minerals may be
mined together with conflict minerals.

Annex VII provides more details on types of information that governments may want to collect to
inform their policy documents and provide a set of indicators to conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

 Local mining actors like ASM are excluded from supply chains.
 The lack of coherence between discussions around conflict minerals and critical minerals.
 Lack of implementation of global frameworks because producing countries are not actively
involved on global discussions.

Some critical minerals are mined in regions where governance challenges have been
observed, such as regions prone to conflicts or to human rights violations. For instance, tin,
tantalum and tungsten (3Ts) are considered as potential ‘conflict minerals’ when they are
mined from Conflict-Affected or High-Risk Areas (CAHRAs). The sourcing of 3Ts is regulated
by law at the global level by importing countries, industrial sectors or by stock markets if
mined in CAHRAs. However, tin, tantalum and tungsten are also considered as ‘critical’ by a
few countries, as Annex VIII highlights. It therefore raises the question of the extent to which
criticality assessments consider risks related to conflict and therefore what safeguards are in
place to ensure that the heightened attention given to those minerals (because of their
strategic nature), do not unintentionally fuel more conflicts in already fragile jurisdictions.

24
Governments need to make sure to monitor the evolution of conflict and critical minerals
regulations concurrently, given that there does not seem to be a clear connection across
those policy instruments.

In cases where critical minerals are mined as by-products of conflict minerals, producing
countries must anticipate how responsible sourcing policies may evolve so they are able to
take the necessary measures to address potential weaknesses in their mineral supply chains.

Summary of outcome expected from Step 2.

Based on this stock-taking exercise, governments should outline a preliminary comprehensive

list of the minerals and metals to be considered for further investigations.

Figure 2: A two-stage approach to knowing your resources and assessing their

associated risks

STEP 2: STOCK TAKING AND RISK MAPPING

Stage 1 Stage 2
Screening of minerals Preliminary analysis

List I: Minerals essential for

strategic objectives

List II: Minerals with strong

All minerals
potential for objectives

Other minerals

Source: Authors, based on Viebahn et. Al (2015)

25
5.0 Step 3: Strategic considerations.
Once Steps 1 and 2 are completed, governments need to decide what types of policies, tools
and instruments are most suitable to attain their objectives. This section highlights 3
complementary strategic orientations that governments need to consider before designing
the critical minerals policies and associated lists.

5.1 National priorities

Based on the assessments made in Step 2, governments must clarify the role that their mining
sector plays in national development plans. Minerals that have been identified as a result of
step 2 must be classified according to a nationally agreed taxonomy, based on domestic
needs, industrial trajectories and global demands.

To guide policy implementation and engagement with industry stakeholders and global
partners, Governments need to clearly outline national priorities. The definition of these
priorities should be informed by other national policies and by consultations with national
stakeholders, such as other government departments, industry actors and representatives of
local communities. National policies should also consider regional initiatives as well as
commitments made at the global level to support resilient supply chains, notably for the
energy and digital transitions.

Key drivers of a critical minerals’ strategy

Beneficiation in mining value chain

Development of local critical minerals supply chains
Securing higher revenues from critical minerals
Strategic positioning as suppliers of choice
Strategic positioning as investors of choice
Ensuring a more socially responsible and inclusive mining sector
Application of recycling and circularity principles to produce critical minerals from existing sources.
Partnerships with supply chain actors (such as OEMs; specific technology companies etc.)
Managing geopolitical tensions, while balancing response to global demands and growing risks of
trade wars.

Potential scope of a critical mineral strategy

New regulatory instruments specifically focused on those minerals (including contracts and
environmental laws)
Higher forms of state participation such as joint ventures with mining companies; or creation of state-
owned companies.
Revision of fiscal policies and other financial benefit sharing mechanisms
Provision of incentives to local supply chains industries

26
Domestic regulations and trade measures to limit exports of unprocessed minerals.
Greater role for artisanal and small-scale mining sector in critical minerals
Reprocessing of tailings and mining wastes
National joint ventures, bilateral agreements with other producing and value-chain countries,
partnerships with industry players, and regional cooperation.

Potential risks to consider

Lack of geological data.

Insufficient industrial capabilities and related skills.
Lack of access to finance to stimulate industrial development.
Insufficient access to infrastructure and high cost of energy.
Price volatility and market uncertainty for minor metals.
Change in technologies that may impact demand for some critical minerals.
Lack of applicable legal and regulatory framework, alongside environmental and social concerns.
Social tensions and lack of trust from local communities.
Lack of a coherent vision and objectives, information asymmetry, and capacity constraints.

5.2 Regional initiatives

Complementary to their national priority orientations, governments need to work
collaboratively with their neighbours to build on each others’ strengths and comparative
advantages. In many cases, domestic markets are small and nascent, and for industrial
activities to become competitive and thrive, there is a need to secure economies of scale and
larger markets. Regional initiatives must therefore be encouraged and supported.

Such regional initiatives, if harnessed, can support the development of resilient regional value
and supply chains to feed into priority sectors, such as e-mobility, renewable energy solutions
or other electronic industries, that are significant consumers of critical minerals.

Some elements to consider when designing regional initiatives:

• The importance of having coherent discussions on national critical minerals plans and
lists.
• Identification of priority regional value and supply chains, with clear roles defined for
each regional partner.
• Fiscal regime harmonization to avoid race to the bottom.
• Coordination and knowledge sharing across countries.
• Regional investment mechanisms to facilitate investment across countries.
• Trade agreements, with rules of origin that facilitate supply chain development.

27
 • Regional industrial policies, where standards are harmonized and technical barriers to
trade eliminated.
• Trade facilitation protocols that have removed cross-border trade challenges
impacting on movement of goods and services across countries.
• Coordinated shared regional infrastructure to facilitate cross-border transportation.

Bilateral initiatives across neighbouring countries are also important levers. An interesting example is
Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), who signed an agreement in 2022 to set up a
Special Economic Zone for the joint development of electric battery manufacturing capacity, notably
using both countries’ mineral wealth. The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer. Zambia also
produces cobalt. Both countries have copper. In addition to cobalt, lithium, nickel and manganese
are also required for the production of basic batteries. While the DRC have these resources, they are
currently not being mined.

Discussions are ongoing with other regional partners, such as Gabon, Madagascar and Zimbabwe. A
recent study by Bloomberg NEF estimated that building a battery precursor manufacturing plant in in
the DRC could cost only a third of an equivalent plant in China or the US. Compared to Poland, the
cost is just under two-thirds.

5.3 Global responsibilities

While producing countries have the duty to optimise the benefits from their mineral
resources, including by adding more value at the national and regional levels, they also play a
key role in supplying global markets. In recent months, several countries have entered into
negotiations to sign bilateral agreements and Memorandum of Understanding (MOUs) to
secure access to critical minerals. Producing countries need to ensure that the terms of these
agreements and MoUs are fair and that benefits are mutually shared.

As countries commit to achieving net-zero emissions and as digital technologies take more
prominence, the demand for critical minerals and metals will only surge. Mid-stream and
downstream industrial sectors and countries who host them, are particularly concerned
around supply shortages and/ or disruptions. These challenges may affect the
competitiveness of industries and plans to build larger industrial capacities in cutting-edge
technologies, needed to embrace the energy and digital transition.

Given the complexity of global supply chains, no countries will be able on its own to provide
every technological solution to the energy transition and for digital technologies. In that
regard, global partnerships are crucial. Countries therefore need to have clear objectives
defined as to what should be the scope of global partnerships, to ensure they are able to
position themselves in global supply chains as ‘suppliers’ of choice, while benefiting from the
critical mineral demand windfalls in a fair manner. This would help buyers diversify their

28
sources of supply away from potential choke points, hence addressing political risks
associated with market over-concentration.

Furthermore, there is therefore a strong case to be made to attract investors to new industrial
locations, closer to critical minerals production centres and stimulate the development of
value-added activities to widen the choice. Having other industrial hubs for key parts of supply
chains is a de-risking strategy, both for producing countries and for destination countries.

Commitments to lower greenhouse gas emissions also require developing countries to

produce their own energy transition solutions. In many countries, clean energy and
transportation is key because demand is set to grow in decades to come, namely due to
population growth. Being part of global supply chains is part of the learning curve to develop
industrial capabilities domestically or at regional level.

29
6.0 Step 4: Review
Designing a policy is not an end in itself. It must be administered, enforced and progress must
be measured against realistic benchmarks, preferably in the form of goals to be achieved. In
the case of critical minerals, risks associated with criticality is a factor of time, which may
impact the mineral scope attached with the policy. The objective of the review process is to
evaluate whether the initial assessment is still valid after a period of time and whether the
administrative and enforcement tools efficiently delivered on the stated objectives. The
exercise allows governments to revise the strategy to reflect new realities and changes in
circumstances and adjust the tools in place (critical minerals strategy, critical minerals list…) to
meet the overall objectives in a changing landscape.

Key elements of the review process are:

• Clear objectives outlined when designing of the critical and/ or strategic minerals
policy.
• Measurable targets agreed against the policy objectives, that can be assessed on an
annual basis.
• A list of minerals considered as ‘critical’ and or ‘strategic, with indicators and
benchmarks that allows periodic reviews.
• Strong systems for collecting data on various elements that inform the policy design
and the list of critical and/ or strategic minerals.
• A multistakeholder committee in place, with a mandate for a specific period of time,
tasked to review the list, against the goals that governments have identified.
• A time frame set to revisit the policy objectives and the targets, with the aim of making
recommendations to adjust the policy objectives and the mineral scope accordingly.

Common reporting frameworks allow governments to:

• Gather and aggregate data on various aspects of the mining value chain and on the
regulatory, geological, geopolitical, economic, social and environmental
considerations.
• Obtain a holistic picture of the sector’s progress toward building resilient supply
chains.
• Design realistic critical minerals policies, and strengthen domestic capabilities, skills
and technological knowledge to achieve mid- to longer term development objectives.

30
7.0 Next Steps
Once the four steps are completed, governments would have identified the minerals that are
essential for their country’s strategic objectives. The next step is to design a critical minerals
strategy, accompanied by a roadmap and related policy instruments, incentives and
mechanisms to leverage the potential opportunities from their critical mineral wealth, while
properly and effectively managing risks identified in the assessment conducted under Steps 1
and 2.

The critical minerals strategy and the roadmap need to provide the strategic direction,
priorities, and timelines with regards to a set of well-defined objectives. The critical minerals
strategy and the roadmap should include the following key elements:
• Clear goals and objectives: The roadmap should articulate the overarching goals and
objectives of governments regarding their development pathways. Goals must be
specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time bound.
• Identified short- medium and long-term priorities: The roadmap must clearly
outline the key initiatives and activities that need to be undertaken to achieve the
stated goals. These initiatives should be prioritized based on factors such as mineral
resource availability, strategic importance for industrial development, and market
demand, amongst others. Timelines must also be identified.
• Risks and constraints: Governments must identify any constraints that may impact the
implementation of the roadmap. This could include domestic factors such as industrial
capabilities, technical skills, financial resource limitations, regulatory requirements, or
external risks, such as potential geopolitical shifts and changes, as well as differing or
potentially contentious critical mineral policies of partners.
• Availability of resources: The roadmap should provide a clear indication of financial,
human, and technical resources required to implement the strategy.
• Geological data transparency: National geological surveys should collect and
publish more systematic geological information from exploration and from producing
companies.
• Flexibility and adaptability: While the roadmap provides the milestones to
implement the critical minerals strategy, it should also allow for flexibility and
adaptability, as circumstances may change, new opportunities or challenges may arise,
requiring adjustments to be made.
• Implementation and measuring performance: The roadmap should include key
performance indicators (KPIs) to measure the progress, success, and failures of the
policies outlined. Tracking performance and evaluating the effectiveness of policies is
an important element for the periodic review of the list of critical minerals and of the
associated strategy overtime.
• Finally, countries should make a plan to review the assessment on a regular basis to
ensure they remain relevant over time.

31
8.0 Conclusions
It is important to underscore that critical minerals are in the spotlight because of major risks
associated with potential supply bottlenecks or disruptions. Key industries and countries that
rely on those minerals for their strategic industries are deploying every effort to minimize
those risks, including looking for alternative sources of supply (through recycling for example)
or alternative materials, altogether. Significant investments are made in R&D to find potential
substitutes for problematic minerals.

What does it mean for producing countries?

It means that the window of opportunity to leverage those minerals – because all attention is
currently on de-risking supplies – is small and is narrowing. As solutions are found to de-risk
supply chains, the spotlight will fade. It does not mean that demand will fall. On the contrary,
the energy and digital transitions will continue to drive demand and at a growing rate. But
when or if risks are contained, these attention to the critical minerals will shift and these
commodities will normalize. As a result, opportunities to leverage investors and access to
finance, as well as the potential to attract industries seeking new locations to reduce risks, may
wane.

It is therefore important for producing countries need to seize the moment to position
themselves as suppliers of choice across the value chains, and not necessarily as providers of
unprocessed minerals. Producing countries in a position to do so, should become investors of
choice, notably by entering into joint ventures with industry players and/or with trading
partners, and taking a stake in various complementary assets and interests.

32
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Annex I: List of Critical Minerals in the
European Union, United Kingdom, United
States, Canada, and Australia
EU critical Canada Australia UK critical
raw US critical critical critical minerals,
materials, minerals, minerals minerals, 2022
2023 2021 2021 2020

Aluminum

Antimony

Arsenic

Baryte

Bauxite

Beryllium

Bismuth

Borates

Cerium

Chromium

Cobalt

Coking coal

Copper

Fluorspar

Gallium

Germanium

Graphite

Hafnium

Helium

Indium

Lithium

Magnesium

Manganese *

Molybdenum

35
 EU critical Canada Australia UK critical
raw US critical critical critical minerals,
materials, minerals, minerals minerals, 2022
2023 2021 2021 2020

Nickel *

Niobium

Phosphate rocks

Phosphorus *

Potash

Rare-earth elements

Rhenium

Silicon metal

Tantalum

Strontium

Tellurium

Rubidium

Tin

Titanium

Tungsten

Vanadium

Uranium

Zinc

Zirconium

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) - 6 metals

Ruthenium *

Rhodium

Palladium

Osmium

Iridium *

Platinum

* UK watch list

36
Annex II: Mapping selected minerals and metals against energy
transition and digital technologies
ENERGY TRANSITION TECHNOLOGIES DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES
Solar Wind EVs Hydrogen
PVs Turbines
Li-ion Fuel cells Electric Electrolysers Smartphones, Data Data storage
batteries Tractor tablets & transmission servers
motors laptops networks
Copper X X X X X X X X
Cobalt X X X X X
Nickel X X X X X X X X
Manganese X X X X X X X
Lithium X X X X
REEs X X X X X X X
Chromium X X X X X X
Zinc X X X X X
PGMs X X X X X
Aluminium X X X X X X X X
Vanadium X
Molybdenum X X X X X
Graphite X X X X
Silicon X X X X X X X

37
 ENERGY TRANSITION TECHNOLOGIES DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES
Solar Wind EVs Hydrogen
PVs Turbines
Li-ion Fuel cells Electric Electrolysers Smartphones, Data Data storage
batteries Tractor tablets & transmission servers
motors laptops networks
Niobium X X
Iron X X X X X X X
Gallium X X X X
Germanium X X X X X X X
Titanium X X X
Gold X X X X X X
Potassium X
Silver X X X X X
Tin X X X X
Source: Author, based on IEA: 2023; OECD: 2023; JRC: 2023

38
Annex III: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding
geological consideration
1. What minerals are available in my country

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/ indicators

Geological and sub-national considerations

Geological data a. Geological Mapping  Percentage of territory covered by geological mapping.

 Geophysical maps

b. Mineral occurrences  Maps of mineral occurrences

Mining potential a. List of deposits  Map of mines and identified deposits

 Database of existing projects

b. Comprehensive information for each  Location

deposit  Commodity
 3D model
 Volume of ores and grade of mineralisation
 Resources estimates
 Reserves estimates
 Mineral processing pathways
 Last feasibility study and all previous technical reports

39
 C. Mineral associations  Multi-element geochemical composition of each deposit
 By-production potential for mineral and metals
 By-production potential in percentage of mineral value in the deposit
 List of main elements in deposits expected to end-up in tailings
 List of potential radioactive elements in the deposit (Uranium, Thorium,
Radium…)
 List of potential heavy metals in the deposit (Lead, Zinc, cadmium…)

d. Access to infrastructures  Map of transportation network (roads, rails, rivers, airports, ports…)
 Map of electricity network
 Map of water resources

Land use a. Potential overlap with  Map of world Heritage Sites

environmentally sensible areas  Map of conservation areas and biodiversity hotspots

b. Potential overlap with human usages  Map of community developments

Possible information sources:

 National geological surveys, statistics and cadastral information
 Foreign geological surveys
 Companies’ exploration Reports
 Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies
 National geophysical and geological campaigns
 Other experts’ reports

40
Annex IV: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding
production, economic and market considerations
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/ indicators
2. How much do I produce? Geological and sub-national considerations

Reserves data a. Reserves by commodity  See Annex III

Production data b. Production by commodity; by size of mining  In volume
activities  By value
 Estimated growth in production by commodity in-country
 Production growth for similar commodities in other producing countries
c. Depletion time of reserves  Years
d. The degree of mineral concentration in-  Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)
country
e. Mineral production in total mining production  % share of national mining production
(by mineral).  % share of global production
f. Minerals produced as co-product and by-  % share of national mining production
products.  % share of global production
g. Minerals exported, by volume and by value.  Types of minerals exported
 Exports by volume
 Exports by value
 % Minerals exports as a share of total exports
 % share of country’s minerals exports in global exports (by commodity)
h. Share of minerals produced by Artisanal and  Production by type of commodity
Small-Scale Mining (ASM)  Production by value
 Production by volume

41
 i. Alternative sources of supply, by source:  types of minerals and metals recycled domestically.
• Recycling  Share of recycled products as a share of total product
• Reprocessing of mining of wastes and
 Projected supply growth from recycling
tailings
• Any potential minerals from deep seabed  Types of minerals produced from mine wastes/ tailings.
mineral resources  Share in total mineral produced.
 Projected supply growth from reprocessing of tailings
 Estimated volume
Demand for a. Domestic demand by commodity  Estimated domestic demand by commodity in-country.
minerals  Types of minerals by industrial need
 % share minerals sold to domestic industries
 Estimated growth in demand by commodity
 Elasticity of mineral demand
b. Domestic demand by applications and by  Estimated growth in domestic demand by application
sectors  Estimated growth in domestic demand by sector
 Elasticity of demand for specific applications
 Elasticity of demand by sector
c. External demand by commodity by  Estimated growth in global demand by application
application and by sector  Estimated growth in global demand by sector
d. Likeliness that technological changes will  New technologies by application
affect minerals demand  Critical minerals mix by technology
Possible information sources:
 National statistics
 Mining companies’ reporting

42
3. How important is the mining sector to my country?
Contribution of the a. Overall economic contribution of mining  % Share of mining sector to national income
mining sector to the  % Share of mining sector to GDP
economy
 Contribution of mining to foreign revenues
b. Contribution of mining to employment  % share of direct mining employment in total employment, by gender
 % share of indirect mining employment in total employment, by
gender
c. Public sector investment in mining sector  Share of public investment in mining sector to total public investments
(by type of activity from exploration to closure).
 Share of public expenditure on R&D and innovation on mining and
mineral-related activities.
 No. of patents, industrial designs filed (related to mining value chains).
d. Private investment in mining  Share of domestic private investments in mining to total domestic
private investments (in exploration; in production; in refineries and
smelting).
 Share of FDI in mining to total FDI.
Information on a. Prospection and exploration phase  Number of prospection and exploration permits delivered
producing  Exploration budgets by commodities, by stage and by company type.
companies
 Growth in exploration budget over time by commodities, by stage and
by company
 Investment projects in the pipeline
b. Production phase  Number of exploitation permits delivered by location and by
commodity
 Number of producing companies by mine site.
 Number of producing companies by commodities (including by- and
co- products identified in feasibility studies but not necessarily
produced).
 Number of producing companies by size.

43
  Number of investment projects in the pipeline by types of investment
(greenfield, brownfield, extension, M&A)
 M&A history and planned.
 Ownership structures of producing companies (and nationality of
owners)
 In-country geographical distribution of producing companies, by
commodities and by size.
c. Mining and refining capacity  Types of minerals and metals refined/ smelted in-country
 Volume and value of minerals and metals refined and smelted in-
country
 Share of refined and smelted production sold to domestic industries
 Share of refined and smelted production exported
 Planned mining and refining projects
Trade data a. Exports  List of export trading partners for mining
 Key exports by commodities in volume
 Key exports by commodities in value
 Share of exports by commodities in total mining exports
 Key exports by trading partner in value
 Key exports by trading partner in volume
 Share of mining exports by trading partners on total mining exports

b. Imports  List of importing trading partners for mining

 Key imports by commodities in value
 Key imports by commodities and in volume
 Share of imports by commodities in total mining exports
 Key imports by trading partner in value
 Key imports by trading partner in volume
 Share of mining imports by trading partners on total mining imports

44
 c. Trade balance  Overall trade balance for mining
 Export dependency ratio on mining
 Import dependency ratio on mining
 Time series change in share of trading partners in mining imports and
exports
d. Share of country in global trade  % share of country in global trade by commodity
 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)
e. Trade measures in place  By commodity, if applicable (e.g., export licensing; export restrictions
etc.)
 Performance requirements, if applicable
 Restrictions on sectors or specific minerals for investment
 Incentives to stimulate mining-related industrial development or
development of mining activities
4. Which minerals are essential to my country’s strategic objectives?
Industrial a. Country’s industrial roadmap (current and  Scope of industrial policies where mining is relevant
development future plans)  Key technological and industrial sectors in-country and globally for
considerations which ‘critical minerals’ are indispensable.

b. Beneficiation and mid-stream capabilities  (See also information in Annex 2)

 Number of refiners/ smelters in operation.
 Investment pipeline in refining/ smelting
 Share of minerals produced domestically supplied to local refiners /
smelters.
 Production by type/ volume/ value of refiners/ smelters.
 Plans to build refineries/ smelters and their expected capacity (timeline
projections)
 Share of country’s exports of refined/ smelted products
 Share of country’s imports of refined/ smelter products

45
 c. Downstream capabilities  List of sectors / industries that currently require mineral resources
produced domestically.
 List of (critical) mineral-intensive sectors/ industries identified as
potential drivers for future growth.
 % share of domestic demand for critical minerals mined in my country
(current and projected) by sector/ industry.
 % share of global demand for critical minerals mined in my country
(current and projected) by sector/ industry.
5. Are there any minerals that I do not produce (or not sufficiently produce) but are key to my domestic industries?
Domestic a. Reliance on imports and vulnerability of  Key domestic industries that rely heavily on imports of specific minerals
availability of supply chains in high demand.
critical minerals  Key minerals imported for specific industries, by type, volume and
value.
 Top importing partner countries.
 Degree of concentration of mineral production by producing
countries.
 Import dependency ratio by mineral and by country.
 Top producing countries of minerals imported and their share in
global production.
6. Will current fiscal approaches and policies ensure that producing countries collect an appropriate share of the financial benefits arising
from the extraction of their critical minerals?
Fiscal a. Current fiscal contribution of the mining  Types of fiscal instruments in place relevant to mining
considerations sector  Contribution of mineral resources to government fiscal revenues by
type of instrument
 Contribution of mineral resources to export revenues.
b. Pricing models  Types of mineral pricing methods and practices (inc. any specific
commodity pricing methods)
c. Benefit sharing tools  Types of financial benefit sharing systems and instrument

46
d. Future fiscal considerations  Guiding questions for policy discussions:
 Are there alternative financial benefit sharing models that would be
more appropriate for ‘critical minerals’ considering governments’
broader policy goals?
 Are there gaps to consider in the valuation of mine tailings and how
they are considered in mining and / or tax legislation?
 Do current fiscal regimes capture potentially valuable by-products and
co-products?
 Are there benefit sharing opportunities along the critical minerals
value chain that require further consideration (tools such as
ringfencing, tax incentives, valuation of minerals; and practice issues
such as state participation, ownership of mining rights by large end
users in the value chain, administrative capacity for tax administration)?

47
Annex V: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding
social and environment considerations
Social and environment considerations
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/ indicators
7. What are the key social issues I need to consider to constructively engage with mining affected communities and ensure benefits for society at
large?
Social considerations a. Existing mining-neighbor communities  A database of mining projects that coexist with local communities.
 A map that identifies potential overlap between mining projects and local
communities’ land (and indigenous people’s land where applicable)
b. Community participation and a  Agreements with Indigenous people
repository of community development  Local employment as a share of employment at mine site, by gender
agreement plans and their scope, where
 Local procurement as a share of operational expenditures at mine site,
relevant
disaggregated by gender where available
 Social services provided by mining companies
c. Community consultations and  grievance mechanisms, where applicable.
engagements  Conflicts history with communities
 Case law on conflicts with communities
8. What environmental issues are essential for the sustainability of my mining sector?
Climate change Climate change vulnerability  Qualitative
 Assessment of the country’s vulnerability to climate change, where
available
Energy Energy intensity  kJ / tonne of ore extracted
 kJ / tonnes metal processed
 kJ / tonnes of metal refined

48
Air GHG emissions  tonnes of CO2 / tonne of ore extracted
 tonnes of CO2 / tonnes metal processed
 tonnes of CO2 / tonnes of metal refined
 Level of GHG emissions of the mining industry in total country’s GHG
emissions
Air quality  Emission of particulate matter

Water Water intensity  Water consumption by mining operation / T produced

Water quality  Number of sample results above national or WHO recommendations
Biodiversity Biodiversity sensitivity  Existence of protected Fauna and Flora in the vicinity of the mining project
(IUCN Conservation list)

49
Annex VI: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding
geopolitical considerations
Geopolitical considerations
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/ indicators
Which minerals are considered as ‘critical’ for my main trading partners and what are their key industrial uses in those markets?
Market intelligence of a. Understanding criticality of main trading  List of countries that have a critical minerals strategy.
third countries partners:  Scope of (partners) critical minerals strategies.
 A mapping of domestic minerals production  List of minerals that are covered on these lists.
against key partners’ critical minerals lists
 Partners CM exports by type, by volume, by partner, by share
 Identification of minerals in partners’ CM
 List of industry players in partner countries
strategies already exported
 List of relevant policy instruments of partner countries.
 Identification of industries and sectors in
partner countries that have the highest
demand for ‘critical minerals’
 Identification of key policies and instruments
of partner countries to secure access to their
‘critical’ minerals
b. Mapping domestic and global demand for  A mapping of domestic sectors and applications that use minerals in
partners’ critical minerals CM lists.
 A mapping of global demand and supply (current and forecasted)
of (partners’) critical minerals production.
 Share of domestic production in global production.
 What other technologies need critical minerals (other than RE and
digital)

50
c. Understanding global supply chains  Critical minerals produced in partner countries, by sectors and by
 A mapping of global supply chains for application.
(partners’) ‘critical minerals’ produced  Depth of supply chains by sector and by industry.
domestically  Share of specific countries in key parts of supply chains by sector
 Mapping geographical locations of key and by industry.
parts of supply chains
 Identification of potential choke points in global supply chains.
d. Understanding global competition  Key producing countries of ‘critical minerals’: by name and by share
of global production.
 Geographical location of global reserves by ‘critical minerals’.
 Political landscape surrounding key producing countries (i.e.,
political instability; governance challenges; conflicts; human rights
issues)

51
Annex VII: Data checklist and key indicators of risks regarding
governance, legal and regulatory issues
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/ indicators

10. What policies, legislations, regulations have an impact on my mining sector?

Regulatory frameworks a. Domestic policies 9  Mapping of policies by type and scope

 Plans to elaborate policies for specific minerals, or  List of existing policies/ measures/ instruments that have
for specific sectors. implications on exploration projects.
 Plans to develop industries that require mineral  List of existing policies/ measures/ instruments that have
feedstocks produced locally. implications on mining production and processing
activities.
 List of existing policies/ measures/ instruments that have
implications on international trade of specific minerals, by
type of measure.
 Documentation of plans, and analysis of scope of
application and of feasibility
 Timeline estimated for their implementation

b. ESG policies and performance indicators of mining  If available, policies of mining companies regarding ESG.
companies  When published, mining companies’ ESG performance
indicators.

9
Examples of policies include mining codes; mining contracts; local content policies; beneficiation strategies; regulations that already identify specific types of minerals
for specific purposes.

52
 c. International agreements  Types of agreements and their legal status
 Scope of trade agreements with partner countries (with
relevant for minerals)
 Scope of investment agreements with States (such as BITs)
or with companies (mining contracts) that cover mineral
production and conditions of exports.
 Other trade and investment frameworks particularly
focused on minerals (such as MOUs, Framework
Agreements)

d. Other relevant agreements/ contractual obligations:  Existence and content of resource swap deals, that is,
agreements to exchange mineral resources for
infrastructure or for loans. Offtake agreements (by
commodities and relevant industry; length and nature of
agreements)
 Long-term supply contracts (by commodities and relevant
industry; length of contracts, nature of contracts).

11. What global governance frameworks are applicable to my mining sector?

Global governance a. Global frameworks around responsible supply chains  Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)
frameworks  OECD Due Diligence Guidance on Responsible Supply
Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk
Areas.
 Section 1502 of the 2010 US Dodd-Frank Act.
 European Regulations, such as 2017 EU Conflict Minerals
Regulation; 2022 Battery Regulation; 2023 EU Critical Raw
Materials Act.

b. A mapping of host metals and their co-products and  Assessment to be conducted by countries that are in
CAHRAs
by products with partners’ conflict minerals and critical
minerals lists.

53
Risks Country risk  Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International)
 Resource Governance Index (NRGI)
 EITI Standards Reporting
 World Governance Index (WB)
 Global Political Risk Index (Eurasia Group)
 Policy Potential Index (Fraser Institute)
 Human Development Index (UNDP)
 Global Peace Index (Institute for Economics & Peace)
 Civic space (WGI Voice and accountability)

Source: adapted from https://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/44156/file/Postprint_AchzetHelbig2013-

SupplyRisks+(1).pdf

54
 Annex VIII: Where critical and conflict
minerals overlap
It should be relevant to highlight that the ‘conflict minerals’ listed below are mined alongside
other critical minerals, either as co-products or as by-products of host (conflict) minerals. A
case in point is lithium, which is a by-product of tin, and currently being explored in some
CAHRAs. Although associated with (and therefore mined with) tin, lithium is however currently
not classified as a high-risk or conflict mineral in those CAHRAs. This raises the question about
policy inconsistencies and of the potential of risk spillovers not being adequately addressed.

Table 1: What other minerals are associated with ‘high-risk’ and ‘conflict’ minerals?

‘Conflict’ minerals Associated ‘critical’ Countries that listed Comments

minerals conflict minerals on
critical minerals lists 10
Tin 11 Arsenic, Copper, Canada, UK and US Tin is not on EU and Australia
Tungsten, Zinc, critical minerals list
Bismuth
Lithium 12
Tantalum 13 Niobium, REEs, Australia, Canada, EU,
(Columbite- Lithium, tungsten, UK, US
Tantalite) Beryllium, Tin
Lithium 14
Tungsten 15 Copper, molybdenum, Australia, Canada, EU,
(Wolframite) zinc, Tin, Antimony UK, US
Gold 16 Arsenic, Copper, Zinc, None Gold is not considered a critical
Antimony, Tungsten, mineral by any country
Molybdenum

10
See Annex 1 for a comparison of critical minerals lists.
11
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52525.html
12
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52473.html
13
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52510.html
14
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52473.html
15
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52513.html
16
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52454.html

55
‘Conflict’ minerals Associated ‘critical’ Countries that listed Comments
minerals conflict minerals on
critical minerals lists 10
Cobalt 17 Copper, Nickel, Gold, Australia, Canada, EU, Cobalt is not considered a
Zinc, Chromium UK, US ‘conflict mineral’ in any
legislations. However, mining
practices from ASM in regions
of the DR Congo prone to
armed conflict and human
rights violations confer similar
governance challenges to those
observed for Tin, Tantalum,
Tungsten and Gold. Rising
demand for batteries makes it a
critical mineral, and hence
subject to regulatory pressures
for responsible sourcing 18.

17
Source : https://www.mindat.org/min-52440.html
18
Source : https://infraglob.eu/2022/12/20/cobalt-as-conflict-mineral-on-the-opportunities-and-limits-of-new-
supply-chain-laws/

56
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