Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Probability

S.Sinyeka
[email protected]

University of Malawi, The Polytechnic

Friday 16th April, 2021

1 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Terminology

Probability is a measure of the chance or likelihood of

something occurring.
Our first step in constructing an understanding of
probability is describe the three fundamental terms to the
study of probability.
The key terms are experiment, outcome and event

2 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Probability Experiment

This is a chance process that leads to well-defined results

called outcomes
Two types: Deterministic and Random Experiments
Some of the experiments that we conduct will always have
the same outcome.
e.g if we drop a ball from a height then we know it will fall
to the floor.
Such an experiment is called a deterministic experiment.

3 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

However, many of the experiments that we conduct are not

deterministic.
i.e. We don not know what the outcome will be.
e.g. When we throw a die we don not know what the score
will be; when we toss a coin we don’t know whether it will
land on a head or a tail.
Experiments like these, with unpredictable outcomes, are
called random experiments

4 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Outcomes

These are results of a probability experiment

e.g. in a probability experiment of Tossing a fair coin once,
the possible outcomes are Head or Tail
The coin will land head up or tail up
Similarly in a roll of a single die, possible outcomes would
be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6

5 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Sample Space

A sample space defines set of all possible outcomes of a

probability experiment.
Denoted by S
Examples of sample spaces for some probability experiment
are:
Prob.experiment Sample space(S)
Toss a coin once Head, Tail (H, T)
Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Birth of two children in a family B-B, B-G, G-B, G-G

6 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Events

In many cases we are interested in certain outcomes from

the sample space.
These outcomes are called events.
e.g. We may be interested in whether we draw a heart from
a deck of cards; or we may be interested in rolling greater
than 4 on a die.
In technical terms, an event is a subset of the sample space.
We often denote an event with a capital letter e.g. A, B, C.
We denote the size of the outcome set (total number of
possible outcomes) by N .
Number of possible ways in which an event E can occur by
n(E)

7 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

An event E is a simple event if it contains only one element

and compound event if it contains more than one element.
Event E is said to occur if any of the simple events in E
occurs.
If E occurs then, we write P (E) to mean the probability
that the event E will occur.

8 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

Let A be the event that we score greater than three when

we roll a die.
Then Event A will occur if we roll a 4, 5, or 6.
So: S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
A = 4, 5, 6

9 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Examples

1 Find the sample space for rolling a die twice

2 Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a
family has 3 children
3 Find the sample space for drawing a card from an ordinary
deck of cards

10 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Approaches to Probability

There are two approaches to probabilities.

These are objective and subjective approaches.
The probabilities assigned through objective approach is
divided further into classical and empirical probabilities.

11 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Classical Probability
Classical probability assumes that the outcomes are equally
likely.
This means each outcome in the sample space has the same
and equal change of occurring.
The probability is therefore calculated based on logical
thought.
If E is an event, then the probability that E will occur is:
n(E)
P (E) =
N
Where n(E) is Number of outcomes in E and N is Total
number of outcomes in the sample space
If we represent the sample size N as n(S), then the
probability of the event E is
n(E)
P (E) =
n(S) 12 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example
Supposed an unbiased six-sided die is rolled, what is the
probability of obtaining
1 a 4?
n(4)
P (4) =
n(S)
Since N = n(S) = 6 and n(E) = n(4) = 1 then
1
P (4) =
6
2 an even number
n(E)
P (Evennumber) =
n(S)
Since N = n(S) = 6 and E = 2, 4, 6, n(E) = 3 then
3
P (E) = = 0.5
6
13 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Note that we did not have to actually roll a die in order to

calculate these probabilities. All we required was to know the
possible outcomes.

14 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Empirical Probability

This is the probability that is calculated based on results of

an experiment that has already been calculated a number
of times.
It is based on the number of times an event occurs as a
proportion of a known number of trials.
If an experiment has been performed a relatively large
number of times and a frequency distribution is given, then
the empirical probability of an event E occurring when the
experiment is performed one more time is given by:
f
P (E) = P
f
P
where f is number of times the event, E, occurred. f is
Total number of trials.
15 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Empirical probability is also referred to as relative

frequency probability because it uses the frequency, f , that
an event actually occurred.
Key to establishing empirical probabilities is the law of
large numbers which states that more observations or trials
provide a better estimate of the true or theoretical
probability.

16 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

Data on education status of a child was collected from a sample

of 36 children of ages 10-15 years from a village. The following
table summarizes the findings:

Education Status In school Dropped out Never attended Scho

Number of children 13 16 7
What is the probability that a child chosen at random from the
village will be
1 in school
2 a drop out

17 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solution

Let Sc be the event that a child is in school

fSc 13
P (Sc) = P =
f 36

Where fSc is the frequency of school

18 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solution

Let D be the event that a child has dropped out

fD 16 4
P (D) = P = =
f 36 9

Where fD is the frequency of drop out

19 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

On October 29, 2018, officers from the Malawi Defense Force

aborted a skydiving attempt to deliver the Carlsberg Cup at
Kamuzu Stadium. This was the 21st failed skydive in 735
attempts recently for MDF. On the basis of this information,
what is the probability that the next skydive will be successful?

20 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let K be the event that a skydive is successful.

fK
P (K) = P
f
P
Where fK is the number of successful skydives and f is Total
number of attempts
735 − 21
P (K) = 0.97
735
Note: Empirical probabilities are just relative frequencies
Empirical probability is used when the theoretical probability
cannot be calculated i.e. when the outcome set is not known or
when outcomes are not equally likely.

21 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Subjective probability

There are instances when there is little or no experience or

information on which to base a probability.
In these instances, we can assign probabilities subjectively.
Basically, this means an individual evaluates the available
opinions or information and then assigns the probability.
Examples of instances that may call for subjective
probability include:
odds that a new political party wins an election
The probability that a candidate is elected as president on
first attempt
Estimating the chance that a teenager would marry after
the age of 28.

22 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The Axioms(basic rules) of Probability

These are mathematical rules that probability must satisfy. Let

A and B be events, let P(A) denote the probability of an event
A, then;
0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1 (The probability of every event is at least
zero and less than 1)
If A is bound to occur, then P (A) = 1 and A is called a
certainty
If A can never occur then P (A) = 0, and A is said to be an
impossibility
P
P (A) = 1 (The probability of the entire outcome space
is 1)
¯ (If two events are DISJOINT, the probability
P (A) + P (A)
that either of the events happens is the sum of the
probabilities that each happens)
23 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Types of Events and their Respective Probability Rules

In many cases where we are asked to calculate probabilities

we are interested in more than one event.
For example, we may be interested in rolling either a four
or a five on one roll of a die, or we may be asked to
calculate the probability that if we throw two coins both
will land on their heads, or we may be asked to calculate
the probability of drawing two red cards from a deck. In
cases like these it is important that we can recognize the
different types of events and their respective probability
rules

24 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Types of Events and their Respective Probability Rules

The complement of an event

Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent events
Exhaustive Events

25 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Complement of an Event

1 The complement of an event A is the set of outcomes in the

sample space that are not included in the outcomes of
event A
2 The complement of A is denoted by Ā, (Ac ), (A0 )

3
26 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

E.g

Suppose we roll a die once, what is the complement of

getting a 4.
Solution: If E is an event of getting a 4, then Ē = event of
getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.

27 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Rule for Complementary Event

P (E) + P (Ē) = 1
or
P (E) = 1 − P (Ē)
similarly
P (Ē) = 1 − P (E)

28 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they can

never occur at the same time.
For example, if M is the event of being a Muslim and C
the event of being a Christian, then M and C are mutually
exclusive events as one can never be a Muslim and a
Christian at the same time.
Another example of mutually exclusive events is to do with
gender. An individual is either ’female’ or ’male’.
While if G is the event of being a graduate and C a
chartered accountant, then G and C are NOT mutually
exclusive events because it is possible for a person to be
both a graduate and a chartered accountant.

29 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Mutually exclusive (or disjointed/non overlapping)

events

30 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Non-mutually exclusive (or overlapping) events

31 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The addition rule for mutually exclusive events

If the events A and B are mutually exclusive then the

probability of A or B occurring is given by;

P (AorB) = P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)

This rule applies for any number of events. If the events A,
B and C are mutually exclusive then

P (AorBorC) = P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)

32 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

If we roll a die once, what is the probability that you will either
roll a four or a five.

33 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Answer

Let A be the event that when we roll a die we obtain a four. Let
B be the event that when we roll a die we obtain a five. The
events A and B are mutually exclusive hence we can say that

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
1 1
= +
6 6
2
=
6
1
=
3

34 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans (R), 13 Democrats

(D), and 6 Independents (I). If a person is selected, find the
probability that he or she is either a Republican or Democrat or
an Independent.

P (R ∪ D ∪ I) = P (R) + P (D) + P (I)

20 13 6
= + +
39 39 39
=1

35 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The addition rule for Non-mutually exclusive events

If the events A and B are non-mutually exclusive then the

probability of A or B occurring is given by;

P (AorB) = P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Hence when we want to find the union of two non-mutually

exclusive events we take away the intersection of these
two events.

36 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

Let event A be the probability that when a die is rolled the

outcome is even and let event B be the event that when a die is
rolled the outcome is less than 3. Calculate the probability that
event A or event B will occur?

37 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Answer

The possible outcomes of event A are 2, 4, and 6.

The possible outcomes of event B are 1 and 2.
3 1
P (A) = 6 = 2
2 1
P (B) = 6 = 3
1
P(A and B) = P (A ∩ B) = 6
Using the addition rule for non-mutually exclusive events:
P(A or B) = P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
1 1 1 2
P(A or B)= 2 + 3 − 6 = 3

38 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

E.g

In a hospital unit there are eight nurses and five physicians.

Seven nurses and three physicians are females. If a staff person
is selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or a
male.
Staff Female Male Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physician 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

39 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

P (nurse ∪ male) = P (nurse) + P (male) − P (male)

8 3 1
+ −
13 13 13
10
=
13

40 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Independent Events

Independent events are events which appear to have no

relation.
So the outcome from one event does not affect outcome of
another event.
For example, event A may be rolling a six, and event B is
selecting an ace of clubs from a standard pack of cards.
The outcome of event A clearly does not influence whether
event B has occurred.
In other ways, the probability of A occurring has no
influence to probability of B occurring.
Therefore we can say that the events A and B are
independent.

41 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Dependent Events

Events are said to be dependent on each other if the

outcome of one event affect the outcome of another.
If the probability of event A occurring has an influence (an
effect) to the probability of event B occurring the A and B
are Dependent Event.
For example, if one event is whether or not I wear a coat to
work and the other event is whether or not it is raining,
then you can see the events are dependent on each other (if
it is raining then I am more likely to wear a coat).
But whether or not I wear a coat to work is independent of
whether or not the stock market is increasing.
The change in the stock market will not affect the
likelihood of me wearing a coat.
42 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Independence is an important concept in Statistics, because

certain formulas can only be used if the two or more events are
independent of each other.

43 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

If two events A and B are independent, the outcome of A

does not influence the outcome of B, then we can say that
the number of times A and B occurs is the number of times
A occurs multiplied by the number of times B occurs.
If two events A and B are independent, then the
probability of event A and B occurring is given by;
P(A and B)= P (A) × P (B)

44 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

Let’s suppose we toss two coins and we are interested in

the probability that the first coin lands on a head and the
second coin lands on a tail.
Solution
The probability that the first coin lands on a head,
P (A) = 12
The probability that the second coin lands on a tail,
P (B) = 12
∴ P(A and B) = P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (A)
1 1
= 2 × 2
1
= 4

45 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The multiplication rule works well when the two events we are
interested in are completely separate from one another.
However, in many cases we are interested in events where we
may or may not replace the result of the first event.
Independent events have different rules depending on whether
there has been an event occurring with replacement or without
replacement

46 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Independent Events: with replacement

Let’s suppose that we want to draw two cards from a deck

of playing cards, the first card drawn is replaced before the
second card is drawn. The drawing of the first card has no
influence on the second card and therefore does not effect
the outcome of the second card. Therefore we can say that
the two events are independent, because there will always
be 52 cards in the pack.
The multiplication rule for independent event remains as:

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

47 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

An examiner wants to select two candidates who sat a Maths

exam at random from the following distribution
Sex Frequency
Male 20
Female 30
Total 50
He selects the two candidates from the same distribution,
therefore when he selects the first candidate he replaces that
candidate before he selects the second. What is the probability
that the first candidate he selects is male and the second is
female?

48 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Answer

20 2
The probability that a male is selected is P (A) = 50 = 5
30 3
The probability that a female is selected is P (B) = 50 = 5
Using the multiplication rule, then;
P(A and B) = P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
2 3 6
= 5 × 5 = 25

49 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Note: When there are more than two events the multiplication
rule can be extended. Therefore for the events A, B and C, P(A
and B and C) = P (A) × P (B) × P (C) .

50 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Dependent Events

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects

the outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a
way that the probability is changed, the events are said to
be dependent events.
Examples:
Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then
drawing a second card.
Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then
selecting a second ball.
Being a lifeguard and getting a suntan.

51 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Multiplication Rule for Dependent events

If two events A and B are Dependent, then the probability

of event A and B occurring is given by;
P(A and B)= P (A) × P (B|A)
Where P (B|A) denotes the probability that event B occurs
given that event A has already occurred.
Example:
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not
replaced. Find the probability of
Getting 3 jacks
Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order
Getting 3 clubs

52 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solutions

13 12 11
×
P (3Jacks) = ×
52 51 50
Complete answering the other problems

53 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Conditional Probability

The probability that the second event B occurs given that

the first event A has occurred can be found by dividing the
probability that both events occurred by the probability
that the first event has occurred. The formula is
P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)

The conditional Probability is denoted: P (A|B)

Can be recalled to have been generated from the
multiplication rule for dependent events

54 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

A box contains black balls and white balls. A person selects two
balls without replacement. If the probability of selecting a black
ball and a white ball is 15
56 and the probability of selecting a
black ball on the first draw is 83 find the probability of selecting
the white ball on the second draw, given that the first ball
selected was a black ball.

55 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let B = selecting a black ball and W = selecting a white ball

W ∩B
P (W |B) =
P (B)
15
56
= 3
8
5
=
7

56 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Note:

A conditional probability is the probability of an event

B occurring, given that a prior event A has already
occurred. OR the other way round
If event B is a conditional event that depends upon the
outcome of a prior event A, we denote the probability of of
B given A as P (B|A).
The essential feature of the conditional probability is that
the sample space is reduced from all possible outcomes (as
for marginal and joint probabilities) to only that subset of
outcomes describing event A (the given prior event).

57 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example.

A student who is sitting for a mathematics exam that consists

of two papers knows that he has 75% chance of passing paper 1.
His chances of passing paper 2 are conditional to him passing
paper 1. His chances of passing both papers is 50%. Calculate
the probability that the student passes paper 2 given that he
passed paper 1

58 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solution.

Let the event of passing paper 1 be A and event of passing

paper 2 be B. Hence
P (A) = 0.75
and
P (A ∩ B) = 0.50
Then we must find
P (B|A)

59 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

Contingency table - MSE companies by sector and size

Sector Company Size Row Total

Small Medium Large
Mining 0 5 30 35
Financial 9 21 42 72
Service 6 3 1 10
Retail 14 13 6 33
Column Total 29 42 79 150
Source: IOBM
What is the likelihood that a randomly selected medium-sized
company from the MSE sample is a retail company?

60 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solution.
Let A event (retail company)
Let B event (medium company)
Then P (A|B) is the probability of randomly selecting a
retail company from the MSE sample given that the
company is known to be medium-sized.

P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
13
150
= 42
150
= 0.3095
∴ There is a 30.95% chance that a randomly selected
medium-sized company from the MSE sample is a retail
company.
61 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example
An insurance company classifies drivers according to gender and
to whether they are under 25 years or 25 years and over. It finds
that 60% of its drivers are male; 25% of the male drivers and
30% of the female drivers are under 25. Find the probabilities
that a randomly chosen driver is in each of the four categories
1 male and under 25,
2 male and 25 or over,
3 female and under 25,
4 female and 25 or over.

Hence write down the probabilities of a driver being

1 under 25,
2 male given that the driver is under 25,
3 male or under 25 (or both),
4 neither male nor under 25.
62 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Constructing a contingency table for the information above

would be an ideal starting point
Male Female
< 25 Years 25% 30%
≥ 25 Years 75% 70%
Total 60% 40% 100%
Note: Given in the table above are conditional probabilities

63 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solution

P (M ale∩ < 25yrs) = P (M ale) × P (< 25Y rs|M ale)

= 60% × 25%
= 0.15
Continue the Problem

64 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solving Conditional Probabilities using Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams can also be used to present the outcomes of

the event where one is conditional on the other.
Example: A bag contains 10 balls, 5 are yellow and 5 are
blue. Each time a ball is drawn from the bag it is not
replaced, two balls are drawn. Calculate the probability of
drawing one yellow ball and one blue ball.

65 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let Yellow be Y & Blue balls be B

We will draw a tree diagram to show all possible outcomes
when drawing two balls

66 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

P(Yellow and Blue ball drawn) = P(Yellow ball on first draw

and a blue ball on the second draw) + P(Blue ball on first draw
and a yellow ball on the second draw)
5 5
+
18 18
10 5
= =
18 9

67 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example

Two components X and Y have respective probabilities 51 and 19

of failure. They function independently of one another. Two
devices are constructed using such components. Device 1 works
only if both X and Y function correctly, Device 2 works
whenever at least one ofX and Y functions.
1 Find the probability that Device 1 works.
2 Find the probability that Device 2 works.
3 Suppose Device 2 is working. Find the following
probabilities;
1 that X is functioning correctly
2 that only X is functioning correctly
3 that both X and Y are functioning correctly

68 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Solution
This question requires an efficient way of representing a
combination of events. The natural way of doing this is with
the use of a Tree Diagram

69 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

32
1 So the probability that Device 1 is working equals is 45
2 The probability that Device 2 is working equals
32 4 8
+ +
45 45 45
44
=
45

70 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

P(X is working given that D2 is working) = P(X is working &

D 2 working)/ P(D 2 working)
32 4
45 + 45
44
45

36
= = 0.82
44

71 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Important Terms

Deterministic experiments: Experiments where we can

determine what the outcome will be.
Equally likely principle: Used to calculate probabilities.
The equally likely principle works on the thought that all
outcomes of an event are as equally likely to occur, as all of
the other outcomes in the experiment.
Event: An event is the outcomes of an experiment that we
are interested in occurring.
Exhaustive Events: The outcomes of events that are
exhaustive cover all of the outcomes of the experiment that
we are conducting.
Compliment of an event: The compliment of an event is
the outcomes that occur if the outcomes in the event itself
do not.
72 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Important Terms Conti...

Independent Events: Events where the outcome of one
event has no influence on the outcome of the other events
and vice-versa.
Dependent Events: Events where the outcome of one
event has an influence on the outcome of the other events.
Multiplication Rule: The multiplication rule is used for
calculating the probabilities with AND in the question. It
is generally associated with independent events but
changes depending on whether the events are completely
independent or dependent to each other.
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: If A
and B are two independent events, then the probability of
A and B is given by P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
Multiplication Rule for Dependent Events: If A and
B are dependent to each other, then the probability of A
and B is given by P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A) 73 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Important Terms Cont...

Conditional Events: Are where the outcome of one of

the events depends on the outcome of the other. We say
that event B is conditional to event A. It is denoted as
B|A. Where
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
Intersection: The intersection of two or more events is
the outcomes that these events share. It is viewed as the
overlap between them.
Random Experiment: A random experiment is an
experiment where we cannot predict the outcome but know
that the result will be one of a possible list of outcomes.

74 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Important Terms Cont...

Mutually Exclusive: Two or more events are said to be
mutually exclusive if they do not share any of the possible
outcomes of the experiment.
Non-Mutually Exclusive: Two or more events are said
to be non-mutually exclusive if they share some or all of
the possible outcomes of the experiment. That is the
events intersect each other.
Addition rule: The addition rule is used for calculating
probabilities with OR in the question. It is different for
mutually exclusive events and non-mutually exclusive
events.
For mutually exclusive events P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
For non-mutually exclusive events
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
75 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Important Terms Cont...

Tree Diagrams: Tree diagrams are a useful way of
presenting independent and conditional events. Tree
diagrams show all of the possible outcomes of these events
and their respective probabilities.
Venn Diagrams: Venn diagrams are a useful way of
presenting mutually exclusive or non-mutually exclusive
events and their respective probabilities.
Relative Frequency: Used to calculate probabilities. The
relative frequency of an event is the number of times the
event concerned occurs divided by the number of times the
experiment is conducted. When the relative frequency of
an event tends to a stable or limiting value, it is deemed to
be the probability of this event occurring.
Sample Space: The sample space is the list of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
76 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Baye’s Theorem

Previously:
P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) = ...equ1
P (B)
Similarly:
P (B ∩ A)
P (B|A) = ...equ2
P (A)
In equ1 and equ2, The numerators are equal, i.e
P (A ∩ B) = P (B ∩ A)

77 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Such that in equ1, we may rewrite the formula:

P (A ∩ B) = P (A|B) × P (B)

In this case, connecting to equ2 and rewriting the formula:

P (B ∩ A)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

P (A|B) × P (B)
=
P (A)
P (A|B) × P (B)
∴ P (B|A) =
P (A)
This is what we call BAYE’S THEOREM, and this is for a
single case,

78 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Basically the Baye’s theorem helps us to calculate the

conditional probability i.e P (A|B) if we know the reverse
probability i.e P (B|A)
In its simplest terms, we are calculating a conditional
probability denoted by P (A|B), which is the reverse of
conditional probability

79 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The Baye’s Theorem formula

P (A|B) × P (B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
or

P (B|A) × P (A)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
can be extended to two or more cases of event A
i.e
P (B|A) × P (A)
P (A|B) =
P (B|A) × P (A) + P (B|A0 ) × P (A0 )

where A0 means ”not A”.

80 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example 1

In a bottle there are bunch of pieces of papers with numbers on

it. Let A represent event of drawing the following numbers
A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and let B be event of drawing numbers
B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}, what is the probability of A given B

81 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

P (B|A) × P (A)
P (A|B) =
P (B)

P (A) = 59 , P (B) = 69 , P (B|A) = 25 where P (B|A) is how much

of B is in A, so only two numbers in B are in A thus {4, 5} You
may use conditional probability to get the answer as well

82 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Hence:
P (B|A) × P (A)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
2 5
5 × 9
= 6
9
1
=
3
Note: A conditional probability formula can also be used to
confirm on the calculations.
P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) =
P (A)
2
9
= 6
9
1
=
3
83 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example 2

Suppose you would like to go out but you are not sure if it is
going to rain, so that you take an umbrella. Suppose past
reports shows that 20% of the days in a months rain and that
45% of the days in a months are cloudy. Suppose 60% of rainy
days are cloudy. What is the probability of raining if its cloudy.

84 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let R be event of raining

Let C be event of cloud

P (C|R) × P (R)
P (R|C) =
P (C)
(0.60)(0.20)
0.45
= 0.27
Hence 27% chance that of raining on a cloudy day

85 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example 3

A particular study shows that 12% of men will likely develop

prostate cancer at some point in their life. A man with prostate
cancer has a 95% chance of a positive results from a medical
screening exams. A man without prostate cancer has a 6%
chance of getting a false positive test results. What is the
probability that a man has cancer given that he has a positive
test results?

86 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let Cancer be C and No cancer C 0 . Let also positive

results be +ve and negative results be −ve
Given: P (C) = 0.12, P (+ve|C) = 0.95 and
P (+ve|C 0 ) = 0.06 Then P (C| + ve) =?

87 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Then
P (+ve|C) × P (C)
P (C| + ve) =
P (+ve|C) × P (C) + P (+ve|C 0 ) × P (C 0 )

(0.95)(0.12)
(0.95)(0.12) × (0.06)(0.88)
= 0.6834...
∴≈ 68% chance that a man who test positive has cancer.
Similarly, ≈ 32% chance that a man with a positive results
has no cancer

88 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example 4

The probability of having a side effect for a new drug is 10% if

you are a female. The probability of not having the side effect if
you are male is 95%. If 40% of the study was female, what is
the probability that someone with a side effect is a male?

89 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let Side Effect be S Male be M and Female be F

Given: P (F ) = 0.40, P (M ) = 0.60, P (S|F ) = 0.1,
P (S 0 |M ) = 0.95, P (M |S) =?

90 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Then
P (S|M ) × P (M )
P (M |S) =
P (S|M ) × P (M ) + P (S|F ) × P (F )

(0.05)(0.60)
=
(0.05)(0.60) + (0.10)(0.40)
= 0.42857
∴≈ 43% chance that a Male will have side effects

91 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Example 5

If the market is strong, there is 80% chance that research would

have indicated so. If the market is weak, there is a 90% chance
that research would have indicated so.Currently, there is 30%
chance that the market will be weak. What is the probability
that the market is strong if the research indicated so?

92 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Let S be string, W be weak, +ve be would have indicated

so, −ve would have not indicated so
P (S) = 0.70, P (W ) = 0.30, P (+ve|S) = 0.80,
P (+ve|W ) = 0.90

93 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

Then
P (+ve|S) × P (S)
P (S| + ve) =
P (+ve|S) × P (S) + P (+ve|W ) × P (W )

(0.80)(0.70)
=
(0805)(0.70) + (0.10)(0.30)
= 0.9491...
∴≈ 95% chance that the market is strong if the research
indicated so.

94 / 95
Introduction Complement of an Event Mutually Exclusive Events Independent & Dependent Events Condit

The End.

95 / 95