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 k

vi Preface

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Preface vii

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viii Preface

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Meticulous Ensuring of Accuracy

There is always room for improvement in this area for richly mathematical texts. We appreciate
the input of sixth edition adopters and made achieving the greatest possible accuracy of every
element of the seventh edition a very high-priority objective. We have been rigorous in review-
ing the retained and new content in the text and reviewing and testing the gradable exercises in
the WileyPLUS course. We thank the colleagues whom Wiley engaged to execute these activi-
ties: (1) the entire text, including all exposition, examples, exercises, and answers have been read
and checked for accuracy, including calculations; (2) answers and solutions to all exercises have
been checked via independent solution of problems; (3) all questions and exercises in the Wiley-
PLUS course have been checked with a focus on verifying the answers, correcting any conflicting
input instructions, and improving the precision of the numerical answers.

Increased Support for Student Engagement

The rapidly increasing use of approaches like flipped classrooms and online course delivery has
motivated us to enhance the features for student self-study, especially those that can better engage

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Preface ix

students. The following new and expanded interactive features are available in both the Wiley-
PLUS course and the interactive e-text:
• Video-based examples and problem walk-throughs. There are now over 100 video solutions
and about 40 example videos.
• Check Your Understanding exercises are placed at the end of each appropriate section in
the WileyPLUS e-text. These simple practice exercises allow students to test whether they
comprehend the material they have just read. They can also be used, if the instructor prefers,
to assess student readiness to apply concepts and techniques. The program contains over 600
Check Your Understanding questions.

Greater Selection of Assignable Exercises

The seventh edition contains over 1800 exercises, an increase of about 25%. Over 1100 of these
exercises are available to the students and appear in the instructor desk copy, e-text version of the
text, and about 750 of these exercises have been reserved for instructors in WileyPlus. The e-text
and WileyPLUS versions have also added about 300 new exercises to the Check Your Under-
standing program that consists of about 600 questions. These questions are integrated into the
appropriate point in the text exposition to provide students with the ability to test their compre-
hension of the material just presented before proceeding. In the WileyPLUS course the Check
Your Understanding exercises are assignable, enabling instructors to assess student readiness.

Instructor-Only and Algorithmic Exercises

for More Exercise Security
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The wide and inexpensive availability of solutions to all published textbook problems has added
a huge challenge for instructors looking to assess learning. Wiley is embarking on a comprehen-
sive strategy to provide original and reconfigured problems that can decrease the proliferation of
problem solutions on the Web. As a first step in this direction, the instructor evaluation/desk copy
of this text includes about 750 problems that are reserved for the instructor only—they do not
appear in the student version. These problems are provided in the instructor desk copy for easy
reference. All of these reserved questions appear as assignable problems in WileyPLUS. About
40% of these problems are entirely brand new. The other 60% of these problems have been revised
from earlier editions and are now only available as assignable problems. The WileyPLUS course
also features algorithmic homework problems, machine-gradable problems in which each student
has unique values for key variables.

Exercises Collected in the Back of the Book

in Instructor Desk Copy
Many instructors have requested that we curtail the practice of frequent revisions of the text.
At the same time, the demand for fresh and new problems among instructors is quite high. The
exercises in the seventh edition are collected in the back of the instructor desk copy as well as the
student e-text and WileyPLUS e-text. We have done this in effort to be able to generate entirely
new problem collections that can be adopted without altering the contents of the book. We expect
that revisions going forward will be confined largely to expansion of learning aids in the digital
forms of the text and updates of the problems and to elongate the life of the print text.

STUDENT RESOURCES
• Data Sets Data sets for all examples and exercises in the text. Visit the student section of the
book Web site at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery to access these materials.

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x Preface

INSTRUCTOR RESOURCES
The following resources are available only to instructors who adopt the text:
• Solutions Manual All solutions to the exercises in the text.
• Data Sets Data sets for all examples and exercises in the text.
• Image Gallery of Text Figures
• Section on Logistic Regression
These instructor-only resources are password-protected. Visit the instructor section of the book
Web site at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery to register for a password to access these
materials.

COMPUTER SOFTWARE
We have used several different packages, including Excel, to demonstrate computer usage.
Minitab can be used for most exercises. A student version of Minitab is available as an option to
purchase in a set with this text. Student versions of software often do not have all the functionality
that full versions do. Consequently, student versions may not support all the concepts presented
in this text. If you would like to adopt for your course the set of this text with the student version
of Minitab, please contact your local Wiley representative at www.wiley.com/college/rep.
Alternatively, students may find information about how to purchase the professional version
of the software for academic use at www.minitab.com.

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WileyPLUS
This online teaching and learning environment integrates the entire digital textbook with the
most effective instructor and student resources to fit every learning style.
With WileyPLUS:
• Students achieve concept mastery in a rich, structured environment that’s available 24/7.
• Instructors personalize and manage their course more effectively with assessment, assign-
ments, grade tracking, and more.
WileyPLUS can complement your current textbook or replace the printed text altogether.

For Students Personalize the learning experience

Different learning styles, different levels of proficiency, different levels of preparation—each
of your students is unique. WileyPLUS empowers them to take advantage of their individual
strengths:
• Students receive timely access to resources that address their demonstrated needs, and get
immediate feedback and remediation when needed.
• Integrated, multi-media resources—including audio and visual exhibits, demonstration prob-
lems, and much more—provide multiple study-paths to fit each student’s learning preferences
and encourage more active learning.
• WileyPLUS includes many opportunities for self-assessment linked to the relevant portions
of the text. Students can take control of their own learning and practice until they master the
material.

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Preface xi

For Instructors Personalize the teaching experience

WileyPLUS empowers you with the tools and resources you need to make your teaching even
more effective:
• You can customize your classroom presentation with a wealth of resources and functionality
from PowerPoint slides to a database of rich visuals. You can even add your own materials
to your WileyPLUS course.
• With WileyPLUS you can identify those students who are falling behind and intervene
accordingly, without having to wait for them to come to office hours.
• WileyPLUS simplifies and automates such tasks as student performance assessment, making
assignments, scoring student work, keeping grades, and more.

COURSE SYLLABUS SUGGESTIONS

This is a very flexible textbook because instructors’ ideas about what should be in a first course on
statistics for engineers vary widely, as do the abilities of different groups of students. Therefore,
we hesitate to give too much advice, but will explain how we use the book.
We believe that a first course in statistics for engineers should be primarily an applied statis-
tics course, not a probability course. In our one-semester course we cover all of Chapter 1 (in
one or two lectures); overview the material on probability, putting most of the emphasis on the
normal distribution (six to eight lectures); discuss most of Chapters 6 through 10 on confidence
intervals and tests (twelve to fourteen lectures); introduce regression models in Chapter 11 (four
lectures); give an introduction to the design of experiments from Chapters 13 and 14 (six lectures);
and present the basic concepts of statistical process control, including the Shewhart control chart
from Chapter 15 (four lectures). This leaves about three to four periods for exams and review.
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Let us emphasize that the purpose of this course is to introduce engineers to how statistics can
be used to solve real-world engineering problems, not to weed out the less mathematically gifted
students. This course is not the “baby math-stat” course that is all too often given to engineers.
If a second semester is available, it is possible to cover the entire book, including much of
the supplemental material, if appropriate for the audience. It would also be possible to assign and
work many of the homework problems in class to reinforce the understanding of the concepts.
Obviously, multiple regression and more design of experiments would be major topics in a second
course.

USING THE COMPUTER

In practice, engineers use computers to apply statistical methods to solve problems. Therefore, we
strongly recommend that the computer be integrated into the class. Throughout the book we have
presented typical example of the output that can be obtained with modern statistical software.
In teaching, we have used a variety of software packages, including Minitab, Statgraphics, JMP,
and Statistica. We did not clutter up the book with operational details of these different packages
because how the instructor integrates the software into the class is ultimately more important than
which package is used. All text data are available in electronic form on the textbook Web site. We
have marked these problems with a special icon in the margin.
In our own classrooms, we use the computer in almost every lecture and demonstrate how the
technique is implemented in software as soon as it is discussed in the lecture. Many educational
institutions have file licenses for statistics software and students can access it for class use. Student
versions of many statistical software packages are available at low cost, and students can either
purchase their own copy or use the products available through the institution. We have found that
greatly improves the pace of the course and student understanding of the material.
Users should be aware that final answers may differ slightly due to different numerical pre-
cision and rounding protocols among softwares.

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xii Preface

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We would like to express our grateful appreciation to the many organizations and individuals who
have contributed to this book. Many instructors who used the previous editions provided excellent
suggestions that we have tried to incorporate in this revision.
We would like to thank the following who assisted in contributing to and/or reviewing mate-
rial for the WileyPLUS course:

Michael DeVasher, Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology

Craig Downing, Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology
Julie Fortune, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Rubin Wei, Texas A&M University

We would also like to thank the following for their assistance in checking the accuracy and
completeness of the exercises and the solutions to exercises.

Dr. Abdelaziz Berrado

Dr. Connie Borror
Aysegul Demirtas
Kerem Demirtas
Patrick Egbunonu, Sindhura Gangu
James C. Ford
Dr. Alejandro Heredia-Langner
k Dr. Jing Hu k
Dr. Busaba Laungrungrong
Dr. Fang Li
Dr. Nuttha Lurponglukana
Sarah StreettYolande Tra
Dr. Lora Zimmer

We are also indebted to Dr. Smiley Cheng for permission to adapt many of the statistical
tables from his excellent book (with Dr. James Fu), Statistical Tables for Classroom and Exam
Room. Wiley, Prentice Hall, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and the editors of Biometrics
allowed us to use copyrighted material, for which we are grateful.

DOUGLAS C. MONTGOMERY
GEORGE C. RUNGER

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Contents
1 The Role of Statistics 3.7
3.8
Hypergeometric Distribution 59
Poisson Distribution 63
in Engineering 1
1.1 The Engineering Method and Statistical
4 Continuous Random Variables
Thinking 2 and Probability
1.1.1 Variability 3 Distributions 66
1.1.2 Populations and Samples 5
1.2 Collecting Engineering Data 5
4.1 Probability Distributions and Probability
1.2.1 Basic Principles 5
Density Functions 67
1.2.2 Retrospective Study 5
4.2 Cumulative Distribution Functions 70
1.2.3 Observational Study 6
4.3 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random
1.2.4 Designed Experiments 6
Variable 71
1.2.5 Observing Processes Over Time 9
4.4 Continuous Uniform Distribution 72
1.3 Mechanistic and Empirical
4.5 Normal Distribution 73
Models 12
4.6 Normal Approximation to the Binomial
1.4 Probability and Probability
and Poisson Distributions 79
Models 15
4.7 Exponential Distribution 83
4.8 Erlang and Gamma Distributions 86
2 Probability 17 4.9 Weibull Distribution 89
k 4.10 Lognormal Distribution 90 k
2.1 Sample Spaces and Events 18 4.11 Beta Distribution 92
2.1.1 Random Experiments 18
2.1.2 Sample Spaces 19
2.1.3 Events 21
5 Joint Probability
2.2 Counting Techniques 23 Distributions 95
2.3 Interpretations and Axioms of Probability 26
2.4 Unions of Events and Addition Rules 29 5.1 Joint Probability Distributions for Two Random
2.5 Conditional Probability 31 Variables 96
2.6 Intersections of Events and Multiplication 5.2 Conditional Probability Distributions
and Total Probability Rules 34 and Independence 102
2.7 Independence 36 5.3 Joint Probability Distributions for More Than
2.8 Bayes’ Theorem 39 Two Random Variables 107
2.9 Random Variables 40 5.4 Covariance and Correlation 110
5.5 Common Joint Distributions 113
3 Discrete Random Variables and 5.5.1 Multinomial Probability
Distribution 113
Probability Distributions 42 5.5.2 Bivariate Normal Distribution 115
5.6 Linear Functions of Random
3.1 Probability Distributions and Probability Mass Variables 117
Functions 43 5.7 General Functions of Random Variables 120
3.2 Cumulative Distribution Functions 45 5.8 Moment-Generating Functions 121
3.3 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random
Variable 47
3.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution 49 6 Descriptive Statistics 126
3.5 Binomial Distribution 51
3.6 Geometric and Negative Binomial 6.1 Numerical Summaries of Data 127
Distributions 55 6.2 Stem-and-Leaf Diagrams 131
xiii

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6.3 Frequency Distributions and Histograms 135 8.6 Bootstrap Confidence Interval 189
6.4 Box Plots 139 8.7 Tolerance and Prediction Intervals 189
6.5 Time Sequence Plots 140 8.7.1 Prediction Interval for a Future
6.6 Scatter Diagrams 142 Observation 189
6.7 Probability Plots 144 8.7.2 Tolerance Interval for a Normal
Distribution 191
7 Point Estimation of Parameters
and Sampling 9 Tests of Hypotheses for a Single
Distributions 148 Sample 193
7.1 Point Estimation 149 9.1 Hypothesis Testing 194
7.2 Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit 9.1.1 Statistical Hypotheses 194
Theorem 150 9.1.2 Tests of Statistical Hypotheses 196
7.3 General Concepts of Point Estimation 156 9.1.3 One-Sided and Two-Sided
7.3.1 Unbiased Estimators 156 Hypotheses 202
7.3.2 Variance of a Point Estimator 157 9.1.4 P-Values in Hypothesis Tests 203
7.3.3 Standard Error: Reporting a Point 9.1.5 Connection between Hypothesis Tests
Estimate 158 and Confidence Intervals 206
7.3.4 Bootstrap Standard Error 159 9.1.6 General Procedure for Hypothesis
7.3.5 Mean Squared Error of Tests 206
an Estimator 160 9.2 Tests on the Mean of a Normal Distribution,
7.4 Methods of Point Estimation 161 Variance Known 208
7.4.1 Method of Moments 162 9.2.1 Hypothesis Tests on the Mean 208
7.4.2 Method of Maximum Likelihood 163 9.2.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample
k 7.4.3 Bayesian Estimation of Size 211 k
Parameters 167 9.2.3 Large-Sample Test 215
9.3 Tests on the Mean of a Normal Distribution,
8 Statistical Intervals for a Single Variance Unknown 215
9.3.1 Hypothesis Tests on the Mean 215
Sample 170 9.3.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample
Size 220
8.1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal
9.4 Tests on the Variance and Standard Deviation
Distribution, Variance Known 172
of a Normal Distribution 222
8.1.1 Development of the Confidence Interval
9.4.1 Hypothesis Tests on the Variance 222
and Its Basic Properties 172
9.4.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample
8.1.2 Choice of Sample Size 175
Size 224
8.1.3 One-Sided Confidence Bounds 176
9.5 Tests on a Population Proportion 225
8.1.4 General Method to Derive a Confidence
Interval 176 9.5.1 Large-Sample Tests on a
8.1.5 Large-Sample Confidence Interval Proportion 225
for μ 177 9.5.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample
8.2 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal Size 227
Distribution, Variance Unknown 179 9.6 Summary Table of Inference Procedures for a
8.2.1 t Distribution 180 Single Sample 229
8.2.2 t Confidence Interval on μ 181 9.7 Testing for Goodness of Fit 229
8.3 Confidence Interval on the Variance 9.8 Contingency Table Tests 232
and Standard Deviation of a Normal 9.9 Nonparametric Procedures 234
Distribution 182 9.9.1 The Sign Test 235
8.4 Large-Sample Confidence Interval for 9.9.2 The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test 239
a Population Proportion 185 9.9.3 Comparison to the t-Test 240
8.5 Guidelines for Constructing Confidence 9.10 Equivalence Testing 240
Intervals 188 9.11 Combining P-Values 242

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Contents xv

10 Statistical Inference for 11.4 Hypothesis Tests in Simple Linear

Regression 288
Two Samples 244 11.4.1 Use of t-Tests 289
11.4.2 Analysis of Variance Approach to Test
10.1 Inference on the Difference in Means of Two Significance of Regression 291
Normal Distributions, Variances Known 245 11.5 Confidence Intervals 292
10.1.1 Hypothesis Tests on the Difference 11.5.1 Confidence Intervals on the Slope and
in Means, Variances Known 247 Intercept 292
10.1.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample 11.5.2 Confidence Interval on the Mean
Size 249 Response 293
10.1.3 Confidence Interval on the Difference 11.6 Prediction of New Observations 295
in Means, Variances Known 251 11.7 Adequacy of the Regression Model 296
10.2 Inference on the Difference in Means of Two
11.7.1 Residual Analysis 296
Normal Distributions, Variances Unknown 253
11.7.2 Coefficient of Determination (R2 ) 298
10.2.1 Hypotheses Tests on the Difference
11.8 Correlation 299
in Means, Variances Unknown 253
11.9 Regression on Transformed Variables 303
10.2.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample
11.10 Logistic Regression 305
Size 259
10.2.3 Confidence Interval on the Difference
in Means, Variances Unknown 260 12 Multiple Linear Regression 310
10.3 A Nonparametric Test for the Difference
in Two Means 261 12.1 Multiple Linear Regression Model 311
10.3.1 Description of the Wilcoxon Rank-Sum 12.1.1 Introduction 311
Test 262 12.1.2 Least Squares Estimation of the
10.3.2 Large-Sample Approximation 263 Parameters 314
k 10.3.3 Comparison to the t-Test 264 12.1.3 Matrix Approach to Multiple Linear k
10.4 Paired t-Test 264 Regression 316
10.5 Inference on the Variances of Two Normal 12.1.4 Properties of the Least Squares
Distributions 268 Estimators 321
10.5.1 F Distribution 268 12.2 Hypothesis Tests in Multiple Linear
10.5.2 Hypothesis Tests on the Equity Regression 322
of Two Variances 270 12.2.1 Test for Significance of Regression 322
10.5.3 Type II Error and Choice of Sample 12.2.2 Tests on Individual Regression
Size 272
Coefficients and Subsets of
10.5.4 Confidence Interval on the Ratio
Coefficients 325
of Two Variances 273
12.3 Confidence Intervals in Multiple Linear
10.6 Inference on Two Population Proportions 273
Regression 329
10.6.1 Large-Sample Tests on the Difference
12.3.1 Confidence Intervals on Individual
in Population Proportions 274
Regression Coefficients 329
10.6.2 Type II Error and Choice of Sample
12.3.2 Confidence Interval on the Mean
Size 276
10.6.3 Confidence Interval on the Difference Response 330
in Population Proportions 277 12.4 Prediction of New Observations 331
10.7 Summary Table and Road Map for Inference 12.5 Model Adequacy Checking 333
Procedures for Two Samples 278 12.5.1 Residual Analysis 333
12.5.2 Influential Observations 335
12.6 Aspects of Multiple Regression Modeling 337
11 Simple Linear Regression 12.6.1 Polynomial Regression Models 337
and Correlation 280 12.6.2 Categorical Regressors and Indicator
Variables 339
11.1 Empirical Models 281 12.6.3 Selection of Variables and Model
11.2 Simple Linear Regression 284 Building 341
11.3 Properties of the Least Squares Estimators 288 12.6.4 Multicollinearity 349

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13 Design and Analysis of 15.2.3 Rational Subgroups 441

15.2.4 Analysis of Patterns on Control
Single-Factor Experiments: Charts 442
The Analysis of Variance 351 15.3 X and R or S Control Charts 444
15.4 Control Charts for Individual
13.1 Designing Engineering Experiments 352 Measurements 450
13.2 Completely Randomized Single-Factor 15.5 Process Capability 452
Experiment 353 15.6 Attribute Control Charts 456
13.2.1 Example: Tensile Strength 353 15.6.1 P Chart (Control Chart for
13.2.2 Analysis of Variance 354 Proportions) 456
13.2.3 Multiple Comparisons Following 15.6.2 U Chart (Control Chart for Defects
the ANOVA 359 per Unit) 458
13.2.4 Residual Analysis and Model 15.7 Control Chart Performance 460
Checking 361 15.8 Time-Weighted Charts 462
13.2.5 Determining Sample Size 363 15.8.1 Exponentially Weighted Moving-Average
13.3 The Random-Effects Model 365 Control Chart 462
13.3.1 Fixed Versus Random Factors 365 15.8.2 Cumulative Sum Control Chart 465
13.3.2 ANOVA and Variance Components 365 15.9 Other SPC Problem-Solving Tools 471
13.4 Randomized Complete Block Design 368 15.10 Decision Theory 473
13.4.1 Design and Statistical Analysis 368 15.10.1 Decision Models 473
13.4.2 Multiple Comparisons 372 15.10.2 Decision Criteria 474
13.4.3 Residual Analysis and Model 15.11 Implementing SPC 476
Checking 373

APPENDIX A Statistical Tables and Charts A-3

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14 Design of Experiments Table I Summary of Common Probability k
with Several Factors 375 Distributions A-4
Table II Cumulative Binomial Probabilities
14.1 Introduction 376 P(X ≤ x) A-5
14.2 Factorial Experiments 378 Table III Cumulative Standard Normal
14.3 Two-Factor Factorial Experiments 382 Distribution A-8
14.3.1 Statistical Analysis 382 Table IV Percentage Points χ2α,v of the Chi-Squared
14.3.2 Model Adequacy Checking 386 Distribution A-10
14.3.3 One Observation per Cell 387 Table V Percentage Points tα,v of the
14.4 General Factorial Experiments 388 t Distribution A-11
14.5 2k Factorial Designs 390 Table VI Percentage Points fα,v1 ,v2 of the
14.5.1 22 Design 390 F Distribution A-12
14.5.2 2k Design for k ≥ 3 Factors 396 Chart VII Operating Characteristic Curves A-17
14.6 Single Replicate of the 2k Design 402 Table VIII Critical Values for the Sign Test A-26
14.7 Addition of Center Points to a 2k Design 405 Table IX Critical Values for the Wilcoxon
14.8 Blocking and Confounding in the 2k Design 408 Signed-Rank Test A-26
14.9 One-Half Fraction of the 2k Design 413 Table X Critical Values for the Wilcoxon
14.10 Smaller Fractions: The 2k−p Fractional Rank-Sum Test A-27
Factorial 418 Table XI Factors for Constructing Variables
14.11 Response Surface Methods and Designs 425 Control Charts A-28
Table XII Factors for Tolerance Intervals A-29
15 Statistical Quality Control 434 APPENDIX B Bibliography A-31

15.1 Quality Improvement and Statistics 435 GLOSSARY G-1

15.1.1 Statistical Quality Control 436 EXERCISES P-1
15.1.2 Statistical Process Control 436 RESERVE PROBLEMS R-1
15.2 Introduction to Control Charts 436
INDEX I-1
15.2.1 Basic Principles 436
15.2.2 Design of a Control Chart 440

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CHAPTER 1
The Role of
Statistics in
Engineering

phillyskater/Getty Images
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES CHAPTER OUTLINE

1.1 The Engineering Method and

After careful study of this chapter, you should be able to do the
Statistical Thinking
following:
1.1.1 Variability
1. Identify the role that statistics can play in the engineering
1.1.2 Populations and Samples
problem-solving process
1.2 Collecting Engineering Data
2. Discuss how variability affects the data collected and used for
making engineering decisions 1.2.1 Basic Principles

3. Explain the difference between enumerative and analytical 1.2.2 Retrospective Study
studies 1.2.3 Observational Study
4. Discuss the different methods that engineers use to collect 1.2.4 Designed Experiments
data
1.2.5 Observing Processes Over Time
5. Identify the advantages that designed experiments have in
1.3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models
comparison to other methods of collecting engineering data
1.4 Probability and Probability Models
6. Explain the differences between mechanistic models and
empirical models
7. Discuss how probability and probability models are used in
engineering and science

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2 CHAPTER 1 The Role of Statistics in Engineering

Statistics is a science that helps us make decisions and draw conclusions in the presence of
variability. For example, civil engineers working in the transportation field are concerned about
the capacity of regional highway systems. A typical problem related to transportation would
involve data regarding this specific system’s number of nonwork, home-based trips, the number
of persons per household, and the number of vehicles per household. The objective would be
to produce a trip-generation model relating trips to the number of persons per household and
the number of vehicles per household. A statistical technique called regression analysis can be
used to construct this model. The trip-generation model is an important tool for transportation
systems planning. Regression methods are among the most widely used statistical techniques in
engineering. They are presented in Chapters 11 and 12.
The hospital emergency department (ED) is an important part of the healthcare delivery
system. The process by which patients arrive at the ED is highly variable and can depend on the
hour of the day and the day of the week, as well as on longer-term cyclical variations. The service
process is also highly variable, depending on the types of services that the patients require, the
number of patients in the ED, and how the ED is staffed and organized. An ED’s capacity is
also limited; consequently, some patients experience long waiting times. How long do patients
wait, on average? This is an important question for healthcare providers. If waiting times become
excessive, some patients will leave without receiving treatment (LWOT). Patients who LWOT do
not have their medical concerns addressed and are at risk for further problems and complications.
Therefore, another important question is: What proportion of patients LWOT from the ED? These
questions can be solved by employing probability models to describe the ED, and from these
models very precise estimates of waiting times and the number of patients who LWOT can be
obtained. Probability models that can be used to solve these types of problems are discussed in
Chapters 2 through 5.
The concepts of probability and statistics are powerful ones and contribute extensively to
k the solutions of many types of engineering problems. You encounter many examples of these k
applications in this book.

1.1The Engineering Method

and Statistical Thinking
An engineer is someone who solves problems of interest to society by the efficient application
of scientific principles. Engineers accomplish this by either refining an existing product or proc-
ess or by designing a new product or process that meets customers’ needs. The engineering, or
scientific, method is the approach to formulating and solving these problems. The steps in the
engineering method are as follows:

1. Develop a clear and concise description of the problem.

2. Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors that affect this problem or that may play a
role in its solution.
3. Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or engineering knowledge of the phe-
nomenon being studied. State any limitations or assumptions of the model.
4. Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to test or validate the tentative model or
conclusions made in steps 2 and 3.
5. Refine the model on the basis of the observed data.
6. Manipulate the model to assist in developing a solution to the problem.

k
 k

1.1 The Engineering Method and Statistical Thinking 3

Develop a Identify the Propose or Manipulate Confirm Conclusions

clear important refine a the the and
description factors model model solution recommendations

Conduct
experiments

FIGURE 1.1 The engineering method.

7. Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that the proposed solution to the problem is
both effective and efficient.
8. Draw conclusions or make recommendations based on the problem solution.

The steps in the engineering method are shown in Figure 1.1. Many engineering sciences employ
the engineering method: the mechanical sciences (statics, dynamics), fluid science, thermal sci-
ence, electrical science, and the science of materials. Notice that the engineering method features
a strong interplay among the problem, the factors that may influence its solution, a model of the
phenomenon, and experimentation to verify the adequacy of the model and the proposed solution
to the problem. Steps 2–4 in Figure 1.1 are enclosed in a box, indicating that several cycles or
iterations of these steps may be required to obtain the final solution. Consequently, engineers
must know how to efficiently plan experiments, collect data, analyze and interpret the data,
k and understand how the observed data relate to the model they have proposed for the problem k
under study.
The field of statistics deals with the collection, presentation, analysis, and use of data to
make decisions, solve problems, and design products and processes. In simple terms, statistics
is the science of data. Because many aspects of engineering practice involve working with data,
obviously knowledge of statistics is just as important to an engineer as are the other engineer-
ing sciences. Specifically, statistical techniques can be powerful aids in designing new products
and systems, improving existing designs, and designing, developing, and improving production
processes.

1.1.1 Variability
Statistical methods are used to help us describe and understand variability. By variability, we
mean that successive observations of a system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same
result. We all encounter variability in our everyday lives, and statistical thinking can give us a
useful way to incorporate this variability into our decision-making processes. For example, con-
sider the gasoline mileage performance of your car. Do you always get exactly the same mileage
performance on every tank of fuel? Of course not—in fact, sometimes the mileage performance
varies considerably. This observed variability in gasoline mileage depends on many factors, such
as the type of driving that has occurred most recently (city versus highway), the changes in the
vehicle’s condition over time (which could include factors such as tire inflation, engine compres-
sion, or valve wear), the brand and/or octane number of the gasoline used, or possibly even the
weather conditions that have been recently experienced. These factors represent potential sources
of variability in the system. Statistics provides a framework for describing this variability and
for learning about which potential sources of variability are the most important or which have the
greatest impact on the gasoline mileage performance.

k
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
 THE WIDDER DOODLE’S
COURTSHIP.
It was about six weeks after Nancy Cyphers’es death. It was a
lovely September mernin’, in the fall of the year when I waked up,
and opened my eyes at about 5 o’clock, A. M., in the forenoon. The
bedroom bein’ on the back of the house, and secure from intruders,
we wusn’t never particular to lower and put down the curtains. And I
could see a levely picture between the fold of snowy white cotten
cloth, edged with a deep, beautiful net and fringe of my own makin’,
that wus tied gracefully back on each side of the winder with a cord
and tassel (also of my own makin’).
It was a picture handsomer than any of ’em, framed by Thomas J.,
that hung up in our parlor. Close by the winder, and right in front of
it, was a rose-bush and a wax bull, full of bright scarlet, and snow-
white berries. And over ’em flamed out a maple, dressed up in more
colors that Joseph’s coat, and each color perfectly beautiful. The
birds wus a-singin’ to the branches, sweet, and strong, and earnest,
and though I couldn’t understand a word they said, still it was a very
happyfyin’ song to me. Through some of the maple branches I could
see the blue sky a-shinin’ down; but lower down, through the
boughs of the rose and wax bulls, I could see the east, a-lookin’
handsomer than I ever remembered seein’ the east look. It seemed
as if it had fairly outdone itself, a-tryin’ to make a levely and
beautiful starin’ place for the sun, to set out from on his daily tower.
The sun seemed to enjoy it dretfully, havin’ such a levely home to
set out from. It seemed to look so extremely attractive to him, that I
knew, unless somethin’ uncommon happened, he would be punctual
to be back there to the very minute, the next mornin’. And thinks’es
I to myself, (for moral) eppisodin’ has become almost a 2d or 3d
nater to me, if home was always made so bright and attractive there
would be other sons and heads of families that would be more
punctual and delighted to get back to their startin’ places and homes
at the exact minute. But I probably didn’t eppisode on this theme
more’n a moment or a moment and a ½, though it is as noble and
elevatin’ a theme as ever was eppisoded on, for another thought
came to me, almost overpowerin’ly, as I see the sun a settin’ out so
grand, and noble, and happy on his tower. The thought that come to
me wus this; I wished that I too could set on a short tower. I had
staid to home for quite a spell. And though home is the best spot in
the hull world for a stiddy diet, still the appetite call fur spices, and
different sorts of food. Human nater, and especially wemen human
nater likes a change and variety. And it does come kinder natural to
a wemen to want to go a-visutin’, now and then, and sometimes
oftner. I had been a-wonderin’ it over in my mind for a number of
days, though as yet I had not tackled Josiah upon the subject, not
knowin’ how he would take it, but knowin’ well that men do not feel
as wimmen do about visatin’.
The county fair wus to be held the next week, at Dover town,
sixteen miles from Janesville. And I had two aunts there, Sophrenia
Cypher, she that was Sophrenia Burpy, my mother’s own sister, and
married to Solomon Cypher’s only brother, and then she that wus,
and now is, Samantha Ann Burpy, my mother’s youngest sister. A
maiden lady, ligin’ on a independent property of her own, with a
hired girl, and sound and excellent principles. I wus named after her,
and set a sight of store by her. She hain’t an old maid from
necessity, far from it, she had chances. I hadn’t visited them for over
five years, and never wus to a county fair in my life; and as I lay
there on my goose-feather pillow, a seein’ the sun set out and travel
gloriously on his tower, I thought to myself how sweet it would be if
I and my Josiah could go and do likewise. Could go to Dover town,
visit our aunts and attend to the fair. But studyin’ as deep as I had
studied on the subject of men’s dispositions, I felt that I must be as
wise as a serpent, and harmless as a dove. And so I gently and
almost tenderly punched my companion with my elbow, and seys, in
awful, affectionate axents:
 “Josiah!”
“What is the matter?” says he, a wakin’ up sudden. “What are you
goarin’s me with your elbow for?”
His tone and his demeaner would have strick dismay to the heart
of a weaker wemen, but I kep’ right on, and said to him, in still more
tender and affectionate axents:
“Josiah, you seem to me to be a runnin’ down, I am alarmed
about you, Josiah Allen.”
“Oh, shaw!” says he, and it was as fractious and worrysome a
“shaw,” as I ever heard shawed in my hull life.
But I continued on and continued, knowin’ that perseverance was
requisit’ and necessary.
Says I, “You cannot conceal it from your pardner, Josiah; you are
not in one-half so good order as you wus in.”
“Wall! what of it? What if I hain’t?” he snapped out awful
snappish.
Says I, in still more tender tones, “You need a change, Josiah; you
ort to go off on a short tower, you and your pardner, Samantha.”
“A tower!”
Oh! never, never did I, durin’ my life, ever see a tower snapped
out as that tower wus. He acted scornful, and overbearin’, and
almost haughty about the idee. And some wimmen would have been
completely skirt out by his mean, it wus so cold, and threatenin’, and
offish. Not so Samantha. No! though his demeaner wus such that I
almost despaired of success, still I felt that I would do all that
wemen could do, and then if I must give it up, I could have a clear
conscience. So inspired, and held up by this resolve, I laid to’ and
got a breakfast, that exceeded anything that had been seen for
months in Jenesville, in the line of breakfes’ses. It affected the
widder Doodle dreadfully; she shed tears, she said it was “so
beautiful, and reminded her so of Doodle.”
 And it was perfectly delicious, and I could see as Josiah partook of
it, that his mean wus a gradually mellerin’ down, and growin’ softer,
and more yieldin’ and sweet. And finally when he had got about half
through his meal, and he could see that as good as the vittles had
been precedin’, better was to come, then I tackled him, and then I
got the victory. He consented.
The widder Doodle seemed more’n willin’ to stay and keep house
for us, and suffice it to say, that the next afternoon saw us a settin’
out on our tower. Aunt Samantha Ann was perfectly delighted to see
us, and we spent the most of the time with her, though we made
aunt Sophrenia a good, honorable visit; she, too, was glad to see us,
very. We staid to Dover town just a week to a day, attended to the
fair, which was very interestin’ and aggreable, both to myself and to
Josiah.
The last day of the fair, we laid out to attend only half a day, and
start for home about noon, so as to reach home in good season. We
had told widder Doodle we would be there certainly that day before
nightfall.
It was, probably, about half-past ten A. M., in the forenoon. I was
a standin’ in the Hall devoted to picters, and flowers, and pillar
cases, and tattan and embroidery, and so forth, and I wus just
examinin’ a lamp mat, which was perfectly beautiful, when a good
lookin’ wemen came up to me, and says she, a lookin’ up above my
head:
“Have you seen the phantom leave?” or sunthin to that effect.
And I says to her, firmly but kindly:
“There hain’t been no phantom here appearin, to me, and how
could I see it leave?”
And thinkin’ she wus in the dark on this matter, and it was my
duty to enlighten her, says I:
“Somebody has been a-trying to impose on you, mam. There
’haint no such things as ghosts or phantoms.”
 She said sunthin’ about “their bein’ a case,” or sunthin’; she talked
dretful low, and the noise around was fearful, so I couldn’t heer her
over and above well. But from what I did heer, I see she was on the
wrong track, and says I firmly:
“I defy you, man, to bring forward a case of ghost, or phantom,
that will bear the daylight,” says I, “they are made up of fear, and
fancy, and moonshine.”
She took up her parasol, and pinted right up to a glass case, and
says she:
“I ment them phantom leaves there, up in that case.”
“Oh!” says I, in a relieved tone. “I thought you ment a ghost!”
They looked handsome, some like the frost-work on our windows
in the winter.
Wall, it probably wusn’t a ½ an hour after that, my pride had a
fall. Truly, when we are a-standin’ up the straightest, tottlin’ may
come on to us, and sudden crumplin’ of the knees. There I had been
a-boastin’, in my proud, philosophical spirit, and there wus no such
things as phantoms, and lo, and behold! within 31 moments time, I
thought I see a ghost appearin’ to me. I was skeert, and awe-struck.
The way on’t wus, I stood there not thinkin’ of no trouble, when all
of a sudden, I heerd these words;
“Oh, Doodle! Doodle! If you was alive, I shouldn’t be in this
predickerment.”
If I had some hen’s feathers by me, I should have burnt a few, to
keep me from given up, and fainting away. And then these words
came to me:
“Oh, Doodle! Doodle! You never would have stood by, and seen
your relict smashed to pieces before your linement.”
And as I heerd these words, I seen her appearin’ to me. I see the
Widder Doodle emergin’ from the crushin’ crowd, and advancin’ onto
me like a phantom.
 Says I, in a low voice, “Be you a ghost, or be you a phantom? or
are you a forerunner, Widder?” Says I, “You be a forerunner, I know
you be.”
For even as I looked, I see behind her the form of Solomon
Cypher, advancin’ slowly, and appearin’ to me. I felt strange, and
feerfully curious.
But within ½ to ²⁄₈ of a moment, my senses came back, for on
givin’ her a closer look, I see that no respectable ghost, that thought
anything of itself, would be ketched out in company, a-lookin’ so like
fungation. I felt better, and says I:
“Widder Doodle, how under the sun did you come here to Dover
town?”
Says she, “Samantha, I am married; I am on my tower.”
I thought again, almost wildly, of burnt feathers, but I controlled
myself, pretty well, and says:
“Who to?”
“Solemen Cypher,” says she. “We are goin’ to his brother’s on our
tower.”
As she said this, it all came back to me—Solemen’s talk the day he
came to borry my cloze for the mourners: her visits to his
housekeeper sense; and his strange and foolish errents to our house
from day to day. Why, he had made such strange and mysterious
errents to our house since his wife died, that I had told Josiah “I
believed Solemen Cypher wus a-loosin’ his faculties,” and I shouldn’t
have been a mite surprised to have had him beset us to lend him a
meetin’ house, or try to get the loan of an Egyptian mummy. Now I
see through them strange and mysterious errents of his’n. But I
didn’t speak my thoughts; I only said, almost mechanically:
“Widder Doodle, what under the sun hus put it into your head to
marry?”
 “Wall,” she said, she “had kinder got into the habit of marryin’, and
it seemed some like 2nd nater to her, and she thought Solemen had
some of Mr. Doodle’s liniment, and she thought she’d kinder marry
to him, and——”
She tried to excuse it off, but she didn’t give any firm reason that
carried conviction to my soul. But I says to myself, in reasonable
axents:
“Samantha, can you—can you ever obtain anything to carry from
an ort?”
I see, on lookin’ closer at her, what made her look so oncommon
curius. She had tried to dress sort o’ bridy, and at the same time was
a-mournin’ for Doodle. (She never will get that man out of her head,
I don’t believe.)
She said she “didn’t want to hurt Solemen’s feelin’s. She put on
the white bobbinet lace to please Cypher. But,” says she, “though
Solemen don’t mistrust it, my black bead collar and jest half of my
weddin’ dress means Doodle.”
It was a black and white lawn, with big, even checks. The skirt
was gathered in full all round, and it was made plain waist. It sot
pretty well, only it drawed in acrost the chest. (She made it herself
and cut it too narrer.) She had a shawl with a palm-leaf border, that
she had when she married Doodle; and a Leghorn bonnet that she
wore on the same occasion. It came over her face considerable, and
had a bunch of artifishel flowers on each side of her face. Her veil
was made out of an old white lace cape of her’n, but the edgin’
round it was new—four cents a yard, for she told me so. And she
had a pair of new white gloves, No. 7, purchased with a view to their
shrinkin’ in the future, and a white cotton handkerchief. But she told
me (in strict confidence,) that she had got a black pocket to her
dress, and she had on a new pair of black elastic garters. Says she,
“I cannot forget Doodle. I never can forget that dear man.” I knew
she couldn’t.
 Solemen seemed to use her pretty middlin’ well, only I could see
that he felt above her feerfully. He acted dretful domineerin’, and
seemed to feel very, very haughty toward wimmin. He looked down
on us awfully as a race, and said we should both probably get hurt
before we left the ground.
He and Josiah went out to look at some cattle for a few moments,
and the widder, bein’ very talkative, told me all about her courtships.
I says to her:
“Widder, I believe you mean well, but how under the sun could
you marry a man six weeks after his wife died?”
“Wall,” says she, “Solemen said that the corpse wouldn’t be no
deader than it was then, if he waited three or four months, as some
men did.”
“And,” says she, “he asked me to have him in a dretful handsome
way,” says she. “‘The Children of the Abbey,’ or ‘Thadeus of Warsaw,’
nor none of ’em, couldn’t have done it up in any more romantic and
foamin’ way.” Says she, “The way on’t wus, I had been to see his
housekeeper, and he was bringin’ me home, and I wus a praisin’ up
his wagon and horses—a new double wagon with a spring seat,—
and all of a suddent he spoke out, in a real ardent and lover like
tone:
“‘Widder Doodle! if you will be my bride, the wagon is your’n, and
the mares,’ says he. ‘Widder, I throw myself onto your feet, and I
throw the wagon, and the mares, and with them I throw eighty-five
acres of good land, fourteen cows, five calves, four three-year-olds
and a yearlin’; a dwellin’-house, a new horse-barn, and myself. I
throw ’em all onto your feet, and there we lay on ’em.’
“He waited for me to answer. And it flustrated me so, that I says,
‘O, Doodle! Doodle! if you wus alive you would tell me what to do to
do right!’
“And that,” she said, “seemed to mad him; his forehead all
wrinkled up, and he looked as black and hard as a stove-pipe. And
he yelled out that he ‘didn’t want to hear nothin’ about no Doodle,
and he wouldn’t, nuther.’
“And I took out my handkerchief and cried on it, and he said he’d
‘overlook Doodle for once.’ And then he said agin, in a kind of a
solemn and warnin’ way:
“‘Widder, I am a layin’ on your feet, and my property is there, my
land, my live stock, my housen and my housen stuff, and I, are all a
layin’ on your feet. Make up your mind and make it up at once, for if
you don’t consent, I have got other views ahead on me, which must
be seen to instantly and at once. Time is hastenin’, and the world is
full of willin’ wimmen. Widder, what do you say?”
“And then,” says she, “I kinder consented and he said we’d be
married the first of the week, and he turn off the hired girl and I
could come right there and do the housework, and tend to the milk
of fourteen cows, and be almost perfectly happy. He thought as he
was hurried with his fall’s work, we’d better be married Sunday, so’s
not to break into the week’s work; so we wuz,” says she, “we wuz
married last Sunday, and we kep’ it still from you, so’s to surprise
you.”
“Truly you have,” says I. But I didn’t have no time to add or
multiply and more words, for my Josiah came jest then and we
started off homewards.
After we had well got started, Josiah spoke up, and begun to
grumble and find fault about their marriage so soon after Nancy
Cypher’ses decease. He took on for as much as a mile, or a mile and
a-half. Says he, “If Solomon Cypher didn’t have no decency, nor
know nothin’, I should have thought the widder would have told him
better.”
But I looked him calmly in the face and says I, “Josiah, when you
are doin’ a sum in arithmetic, how much do you usually get to carry
from an ort?” And then I came out still more plainer, and says I, “Ort
from ort leaves how many, Josiah Allen?”
 “Ort,” says he. “But what under the sun are you a-prancin’ off into
’rithmetic for?”
“Wall,” says I, calmly, “When you obtain anything to carry from an
ort, then I will obtain sense from the widder, I mean the bride. But
who would think of blaming the ort?”
 BETSEY BOBBIT: HER POEM.
Josiah came in, t’other day, from the postoffice; and he says, says
he, throwin’ down the “Weekly Gimlet:”
“Here’s old Betsey Bobbit been a makin’ a fool of herself agin. Just
read this stuff that she calls a pome.”
I took the newspaper, and sot down by the winder, to get more
light, for my eyes ain’t as good as when I was a gal, and this is what
I read:

I WISH I WAS A WIDDER,

BY BETSEY BOBBIT.

Oh, “Gimlet,” back again I float

With broken wings, a weary bard;
I cannot write as once I wrote,
I have to work so very hard.
So hard my lot, so tossed about,
My muse is fairly tuckered out.

My muse aforesaid, once hath flown,

But now her back is broke, and breast;
And yet she fain would crumple down
On “Gimlet” pages she would rest;
And sing plain words as there she’s sot
Haply they’ll rhyme, and haply not

I spake plain words in former days,

No guile I showed, clear was my plan;
My gole it matrimony was.
My earthly aim it was a man.
I gained my man. I won my gole.
Alas, I feel not as I fole.

Yes, ringing through my maiden thought

This clear voice rose, “oh come up higher”
To speak plain truth with cander fraught,
To married be, was my desire.
Now sweeter still this lot doth seem
To be a widder is my theme.

For toil hath claimed me for her own,

In wedlock I have found no ease;
I’ve cleaned and washed for neighbors round
And took my pay in beans and pease;
In boiling sap no rest I took
Or husking corn in barn or stook.

Or picking wool from house to house,

White-washing, painting, papering,
In stretching carpets, boiling souse,
E’en picking hops it hath a sting
For spiders there assembled be,
Mosqueetoes, bugs, and et ceteree.

I have to work, oh! very hard;

Old Toil, I know your breadth, and length.
I’m tired to death; and in one word
I have to work beyond my strength,
And mortal men are very tough
To get along with—nasty, rough.

Yes, tribulation’s doomed to her

Who weds a man, without no doubt
In peace a man is singuler
His ways, they are past finding out,
And oh! the wrath of mortal males
To paint their ire, earth’s language fails.

And thirteen children in our home

Their buttons rend, their clothes they burst,
Much bread and such do they consume,
Of children they do seem the worst;
And Simon and I do disagree,
He’s prone to sin continualee.

He horrors has, he oft doth kick,

He prances, yells, he will not work,
Sometimes I think he is too sick;
Sometimes I think he tries to shirk,
But ’tis hard for her in either case
Who B Bobbit was in happier days.

Happier? Away! Such things I spurn,

I count it true from spring to fall
’Tis “better to be wed and groan
Than never to be wed at all.”
I’d work my hands down to the bone
Rather than rest, a maiden lone.

This truth I cannot, will not shirk,

I feel it when I sorrow most,
I’d rather break my back with work
And haggard look as any ghost—
Rather than lonely vigils keep
I’d wed, and sigh, and groan, and weep.

Yes, I can say, though tears fall quick,

Can say while briny tear-drops start,
I’d rather wed a crooked stick
Than never wed no stick at all.
Rather than laughed at be as of yore
I’d rather laugh myself no more.
I’d rather go half-clad and starved
And mops and dish-cloths madly wave
Than have the words B Bobbit carved
On headstone rising o’er my grave
Proud thought, now when that stun is risen,
’Twill bear two names, mine and hisen.

Methinks ’twould colder make the stun

If but one name, the name of she
Should linger there alone, alone,
How different when the name of he
Does also deck the funeral urn
Two wedded names, his name and hurn.

And sweeter yet, oh! blessed lot

Oh! state most dignified and blest
To be a widder calmly sot
And have both dignity and rest.
Oh, Simon, strangely sweet ’twould be
To be a widder unto thee.

The warfare past, the horrors done,

With maiden ease and pride of wife,
The dignity of wedded one,
The calm and peace of single life;
Oh strangely sweet this lot doth seem,
A female widder is my theme.

I would not hurt a hair of he,

Yet did he from earth’s toils escape
I could most reconciled be
Could sweetly mourn e’en without crape
Could say without a pang of pain
That Simon’s loss was Betsey’s gain.

I’ve told the plain tale of my woes,

 With no deceit or language vain,
Have told whereon my hopes are rose
Have sung my mournful song of pain.
And now e’en I will end my tale
I’ve sung my song, I’ve wailed my wail.
“Wall, I call it foolish stuff,” I said, when I had finished. “Though, if
I was to measure ’em with a yardstick, the lines might come out
pretty nigh an equal length, and so I s’pose it would be called
poetry.”
At any rate, I have made a practice, ever since, of callin’ it so; for
I am one that despises envy and jealousy amongst sister
authoresses. No, you never ketch me at it; I would sooner help ’em
up the ladder than upset ’em, and it is ever my practice so to do. But
truth must be spoke if subjects are brung up. Uronious views must
be condemned by Warriors of the Right, whether ladders be upset,
or stand firm, poetesses also.
I felt that this poetry attacked a tender subject, a subject dearer
to me than all the world besides, the subject of Josiah. Josiah is a
man.
And I say it, and I say it plain that men hain’t no such creeters as
he tries to make out they be. Men are first-rate creeters in lots of
things, and as good as wimmen any day of the week.
Of course, I agree with Betsy that husbands are tryin’ in lots of
things; they need a firm hand to the hellum to guide ’em along
through the tempestuous wave of married life, and get along with
’em. They are loss of trouble, and then I think they pay all. Why, I
wouldn’t swap my Josiah for the best house and lot in Janesville, or
the crown of the Widder Albert. I love Josiah Allen. And I don’t know
but the very trouble he has caused me makes me cling closer to
him; you know the harder a horse’s head beats and thrashes against
burdock burs, the tighter the burdocks will cling to its mane. Josiah
makes me sights of trouble, but I cling to him closely.
 I admit that men are curious creeters and tegus creeters, a good
deal of the time. But then agin, so be wimmen, just as tegus, and I
don’t know but teguser! I believe my soul, if I had got to be born
again, I had almost as lives be born a man as a woman.
No, I don’t think one sect ort to boast much over the other one.
They are both about equally foolish and disagreeable, and both have
their goodness and nobilities. And both ort to have their rights. Now
I haint one to set up and say men hadn’t ort to vote, that they don’t
know enough, and hain’t good enough, and so forth, and so on. No,
you don’t ketch me at it. I am one that stands up for justice and
reason.
Now, the other day a wild-eyed woman with short hair, who goes
round lecturin’ on wimmen’s rights, came to see me, a tryin’ to
inviggle me into a plot to keep men from votin’. Says she, “The time
is drawin’ near, when wimmen are a goin’ to vote, without no doubt.”
“Amen!” says I, “I can say amen to that with my hull heart and
soul.”
“And then,” says she, “when we get the staff in our own hands
less we wimmen all put in together and try to keep men from votin’.”
“Never!” says I. “Never! will you get me into such a scrape as
that.” Says I, “men have jest exactly as good a right to vote as
wimmen have. They are condemned, and protected, and controlled
by the same laws that wimmen are, and so of course are equally
interested in makin’ ’em. You needn’t try to inviggle me into no plot
to keep men from votin’, for justice is ever my theme, and also
Josiah.”
Says she, bitterly, “I’d love to make these miserable sneaks try it
once and see how they would like it, to have to spend their property
and be hauled round, and hung by laws they hadn’t no hand in
makin’.”
But I still say with marble firmness, “men has jest as good a right
to vote as wimmen have. And you needn’t try to inviggle me into no
such plans, for I won’t be inviggled.”
 And so she stopped invigglin, and went off.
And then agin in Betsy’s poetry (though as a neighbor, and a
female authoress, I never would speak a word against it, and what I
say, I say as a Warrior, and would wish to be so took) I would say in
kindness that Betsy sot out in married life expectin’ too much. Now,
she didn’t marry in the right way, and so she ought to have expected
tougher times than the usual run of married females ort to expect,
more than the ordinary tribulations of matrimony.
And it won’t do to expect too much in this world anyway. If you
can only bring your lives down to it, it is a sight better to expect
nothing, and then you won’t be disappointed if you get it, as you
most probably will. And if you get something, it will be a joyful
surprise to you. But there are few indeed who has ever sot down on
this calm hite of filosify.
Folks expect too much. As many, and many times as their hopes
has proved to be unronious, they think, well now, if I only had that
certain thing, or was in that certain place, I should be happy. But
they haint. They find when they reach that certain gole and have
climbed up and sot down on it, they’ll find that somebody has got
onto the gole before ’em, and is there a settin’ on it. No matter how
spry anybody may be, they’ll find that Sorrow can climb faster than
they can, and can set down on goles quicker.
It haint no matter how easy a seat anybody sets down in, they’ll
find that they’ll have to hunch along, and let Disappointment set
down with ’em, and Anxiety, and Weariness, and et ceteree, et
ceteree.
Now, the scholar, or the literatoor, or writer, thinks if he can only
stand up on that certain hite of scientific discovery, or Akkropolis of
literatoor, he will be happy; for he will known all that he cares about,
and will have all the fame he wants to. But when he gets up there,
he’ll see plain, for the higher he riz above the mists of ignorance that
floats ’round the lower lands, the clearer his vision, and he will see
another peek right ahead of him steeper and loftier and icier than
the last, and so on ad infinitum, ad infinity. And if it is literatoor, he’ll
see somebody that’s got higher, or thinks he has, or he’ll find some
critick that says he hasn’t done much, and Shakespeare did better.
Just as it was with old Mrs. Peedick, our present Mrs. Peedick’s
mother-in-law, she said, she told me with her own lips, that she
knew she should be happy when she got a glass butter-dish, but she
said she wasn’t; she told me with her own lips, that jest as quick as
she got that she wanted a sugar-bowl, for the Druffels had sugar-
bowls, and why shouldn’t she?
The lover thinks, when he can once claim his sweetheart, call her
his own, he will be blessed and content; but he hain’t. No matter
how well he loves her, no matter how fond she is of him, and how
blessed they are in each other’s love, the haunting fear must always
rack his soul, the horrible fear be there, of seeing her slip away from
him altogether. That in place of her warm, beating heart, whose
every throb is full of love for him, will be only her vacant place, and
instead of the tender sweetness of her voice, the everlasting silence
of Eternity.
The little ones that cling to our knees, that pray beside us at bed-
time, and the patter of whose feet is such music to us—they go, too,
and we no more feel their kisses, or hear their tiny voices. Every day,
every hour, we are losing something, that we called our own.
You see we don’t own much of anything in this world. It’s curious,
but so it is. And what we call our own, don’t belong to us; not at all.
That is one of the things that makes such an extremely curious
world to live in. Yes, we are situated extremely curious, as much so
as the robins and swallows who build their nests on the swaying
forest boughs.
We smile at the robin, with our wise, amused pity, who builds her
tiny nest, with such laborious care, high up, out on the waving tree-
top, only to be blown away by the chilly autumn winds. But are not
our homes, the sweetest homes of our tenderest love, built upon
just as insecure foundations, hanging over more mysterious depths?
Rocked to and fro, swept to their ruin by a breath of the Unknown?
Our dreams, and hopes, and ambitions, what are they all but the
sticks and straws that we weave about our frail nests, only to be
blown away forever?
And when our December comes, are not we too swept away, poor
voyagers, over pathless wastes? Yet He, who has provided a balmy
South, as a refuge for the summer birds, to which they fly,
intuitively, with blind hope and trust—has not He prepared likewise a
shelter for us, one where we may fulfil our deathless longings, meet
the “loved and lost,” and realize our soul’s dearest dreams? Yes, over
the lonely way, over the untried fields of the future, ay, even over
the Unknown Sea, which they call Death, even over that, He will
guide us safely, to a haven, a home, immortal, “not made with
hands, eternal in the Heavens”.
But I am eppisodin!
 DEACON SLIMPSEY’S MOURNFUL
FOREBODINGS.
Thomas Jefferson went to the school-house to meetin’ last night,
and he broke out to the breakfast-table:
“Betsey Bobbet spoke in meetin’ last night, father.” He addressed
the words to his father, for he knows I won’t uphold no kind of light
talking about serious things.
“She said she knew she was religious, because she felt she loved
the bretheren.” Then they both laughed in an idiotic manner. But I
said, in a tone of cool dignity, as I passed him his 3d cup of coffee,
“She meant it in a Scriptural sense, no doubt.”
“I guess you’d think she meant it in a earthly sense, if you had
seen her hang on to old Slimpsey last night; she’ll marry that old
man yet, if he don’t look out.”
“Oh, shaw!” says I, coolly. “She’s payin’ attention to the editor of
the Gimlet.”
“She’ll never get him,” says he. “She means to be on the safe side,
and get one or the other of ’em; how steady she has been to
meetin’ sence Deacon Slimpsey moved into the place.”
“You shall not make light of her religeen, Thomas Jefferson,” says
I, in a severe voice.
“I won’t, mother. I shouldn’t feel right to, for it is light enough
now; it don’t all consist in talkin’ in meetin’, mother. I don’t believe in
folks’es usin’ up all their religeen Sunday nights, and then goin’
without any all the rest of the week; it looks as shiftless in ’em as a
3-year-old hat on a female.”
 Says I, in a tone of deep rebuke, “Instead of tendin’ other folks’s
motes, Thomas Jefferson, you had better take care of your own
beams; you’ll have plenty work enough to last you one spell.”
“And if you are through with your breakfast,” says his father, “you
had better go and give the cows something to eat.”
“Can’t they come here, father?” says he, leanin’ kinder lazy over
the table.
Says I, “That is pretty talk to your father, Thomas J. How do you
suppose your days will be long in the land if you don’t honor your
father and mother?”
“I do honor you, mother. I never see such long, wet, tedious days
as they have been ever sence I have been home from school, and I
lay it to honorin’ you and father so.”
Says I, “I won’t hear another light word this mornin’, Thomas
Jefferson—not one.” He read earnestness in my tone; and he rose
with alackrity and went to the barn, and his farther soon drew on his
boots and followed him, and with a pensive brow I turned out my
dish water. I hadn’t got my dishes more than half done, when, with
no warnin’ of no kind, the door burst open, and in tottered Deacon
Slimpsey, pale as a piece of white cotton shirt. I wildly wrung out my
dish-cloth, and offered him a chair, sayin’, in a agitated tone, “What
is the matter, Deacon Slimpsey?”
“Am I pursued?” says he, in a voice of low frenzy, as he sank into
a wooden-bottomed chair. I cast one or two eagle glances out of the
window, both ways, and replied in a voice of choked-down emotion:
“There haint nobody in sight. Has your life been attacked by
burglers and incendiarys? Speak, Deacon Slimpsey, speak!”
He struggled nobly for calmness, but in vain. And then he put his
hand wildly to his brow and murmured, in low and hollow accents:
“Betsey Bobbet!”
 I see he was overcome by as many as seven different emotions of
different anguishes, and I give him pretty near a minute to recover
himself; and then, says I, as I sadly resumed my dish-cloth, “What
of her, Deacon Slimpsey?”
“She’ll be the death on me,” says he, “and that haint the worst on
it. My soul is jeopardied on account of her. Oh!” says he, groanin’ in
an anguish, “Can you believe it, Miss Allen, that I, a deacon in an
autherdox church, could be tempted to swear? Behold that wretch! I
confess it, as I came through your gate, just now, I said to myself,
‘By Jupiter, I can’t stand it so much longer’; and only last night I
wished I was a ghost; for I thought if I were an apperition, I could
have escaped from her view. Oh!” says he, groanin’ agin, “I have got
so low as to wish I was a ghost!” He paused, and in a deep and
brooding silence I finished my dishes, and hung up my dish-pan.
“She was rushing out of Deacon Gowdey’s, as I came by, just now,
to talk to me. She don’t give me no peace—last night she would
walk tight to my side all the way home, and she looked hungry at
the gate as I went through, and fastened it on the inside.” Agin he
paused overcome by his emotions, and I looked pityin’ly on him. He
was a small boned man of about seventy summers and winters. Age,
who had ploughed the wrinkles into his face, had turned the furrows
deep. The cruel fingers of time, or some other female, had plucked
nearly every hair from his head, and the ruthless hand of fate had
also seen fit to deprive him of his eye-winkers, not one solitary
winker bein’ left for a shade tree (as it were) to protect the pale
pupils below, and they bein’ a light watery blue, and the lids bein’
inflamed, they looked sad indeed. Owing to afflictive providences, he
was dressed up more than men generally be, for his neck bein’ badly
swelled, he wore a string of yellow amber beads, and in behalf of his
sore eyes he wore ear-rings. But truly outside splender and glitter
won’t satisfy the mind, or bring happiness; I looked upon his
mournful face, and my heart melted inside of me, almost as soft as
it could, almost as soft as butter in the month of August, and I said
to him in a soothin’ and encouragin’ tone:
 “Mebby she’ll marry the editor of the Gimlet. She is payin’
attention to him.”
“No, she won’t,” says he, in a solemn and affectin’ tone that
brought tears to my eyes, as I sat peelin’ my onions for dinner. “No,
she won’t. I shall be the one, I feel it. I was always the victim; I was
always down-trodden. When I was a baby, my mother had two twins
both of ’em a little older than me, and they almost tore me to pieces
before I got into trowsers. Mebby it would have been better for me if
they had,” said he in a musin’ and mournful tone—and then havin’ a
deep sigh, he resumed; “When I went to school and we played leap-
frog if there was a frog to be squashed down under all the rest, I
was that frog; it has always been so, if ever there was a victim
wanted, I was the victim, and Betsey Bobbet will get round me yet,
and see if she don’t; women are awful perseverin’ in such things.”
“Cheer up, Deacon Slimpsey, you haint obleeged to marry her—it
is a free country; folks haint obleeged to marry unless they are a
mind to; it don’t take a brass band to make that legal.” I quoted
these words in a light and joyous tone, hopin’ to rouse him from his
despondancy—but in vain, for he only repeated in a gloomy tone:
“She’ll get around me yet, Miss Allen, I feel it,” and as the shade
deepened on his eyebrow, he said, “Have you seen her verses in the
last week’s Gimlet?”
“No,” says I, “I haint.”
In a silent and hopeless way he took the paper out of his pocket,
and handed it to me and I read as follows:

A SONG
Composed not for the strong-minded females, who madly
and indecently insist on rights, but for the retiring and
delicate-minded of the sect who modestly murmur “we wont
have no rights—we scorn ’em;” will some modest and bashful
sister set it to music, that we may timidly, but loudly warble
it, and oblige hers till death in this glorious cause.
 Betsey Bobbet.

Not for strong minded wimmen

Do I now tune my liar;
Oh not for them would I kin-
dle up the sacred fire;
Oh modest bashful female
For you I tune my lay;
Although strong-minded wimmin sneer
We’ll conquer in the fray.
Chorus—Press onward, do not fear, sisters,
Press onward, do not fear,
Remember womens spear, sisters,
Remember womens spear.

Twould cause some fun if poor Miss Wade,

Should say of her boy Harry,
“I shall not give him any trade,
But bring him up to marry;”
Twould cause some fun of course, dear maids,
If Mrs. Wade’ses Harry,
Should lose his end and aim in life,
And find no chance to marry.
Chorus—Press onward, do not fear, sisters, etc.

Yes, wedlock is our only hope,

All o’er this mighty nation;
Men are brought up to other trades,
But this is our vocation.
Oh not for sense or love ask we,
We ask not to be courted;—
Our watch-word is to married be,
That we may be supported.
Chorus—Press onward, do not fear, sisters, etc.

Say not you’r strong, and love to work,

 Are healthier than your brother,
Who for a blacksmith is designed,
Such feelings you must smother;
Your restless hands fold up or gripe
Your waist unto a span,
And spend your strength in looking out
To hail the coming man.
Chorus—Press onward, do not fear, sisters, etc.

Oh do not be discouraged, when

You find your hopes brought down;
And find sad and unwilling men,
Heed not their gloomy frown;
Heed not their wild despaier
We will not give no quarter;
In battle all is fair
We’ll win, for we had orter.
Chorus—Press onward, do not fear, sisters,
Press onward, do not fear,
Remember womens spear, sisters,
Remember womens spear.

“Wall,” says I in an encouragin’ tone, as I handed him the paper

agin—“that haint much different from the piece she had in the
Gimlet a spell ago, that was about womens spear.”
“It is that spear that is goin’ to destroy me,” says he, mournfully.
“Don’t give up so, Deacon Slimpsey. I hate to see you lookin’ so
gloomy and deprested.”
“It is the awful determination these lines breathe forth that
appauls me,” says he. “I have seen it in another.
“Betsey Bobbet reminds me dreadfully of another. And I don’t
want to marry agin, Miss Allen. I don’t want to,” says he, lookin’ me
pitifully in the face, “I didn’t want to marry the first time; I wanted
to be a bachelder. I think they have the easiest time of it by half.
Now there is a friend of mine that never was married, he is jest my
age, or that is, he is only half an hour younger, and that haint
enough difference to make any account of, is it Miss Allen?” says he
in a pensive and enquirin’ tone.
“No,” says I in a reasonable accent. “No, Deacon Slimpsey, it
haint.”
“Wall, that man has always been a bachelder, and you ought to
see what a head of hair he has got, sound at the roots now, not a
lock missing. I wanted to be one, and meant to be, but jest as I got
my plans all laid, she, my late wife, come and kept house for me,
and married me. I lived with her for twenty 5 years, and when she
left me,” he murmured with a contented look, “I was reconciled to it.
I was reconciled before it took place. I don’t want to say anything
against nobody that haint here, but I lost some hair by my late wife,”
says he, putting his hand to his bald head in an abstracted way. “I
lost a good deal of hair by her, and I haint much left as you can
see,” says he in a melancholy tone. “I don’t want to be married agin.
I did want to save a lock or two, for my children to keep as a relict
of me.” And again he paused overcome by his feelin’s. I knew not
what to say to comfort him, and I poured onto him a few comforting
adjectives, sich as,
“Mebby you are borrowin’ trouble without a cause, Deacon. With
life there is hope, Deacon Slimpsey. It is always the darkest before
daylight.” But in vain. He only sighed mournfully.
“She’ll get round me yet, Miss Allen—mark my words, and when
the time comes you will think of what I told you.” His face was most
black with gloomy apprehensions, as he repeated again—“You see if
she don’t get round me,” and a tear began to flow; I turned away
with instinctive delicacy, and set my pan of onions in the sink, but
when I glanced at him again it was still flowing, and I said to him in
a tone of two-thirds pity and one comfort. “Chirk up, Deacon
Slimpsey, be a man.”
 “That is the trouble,” says he, “if I wasnt a man she would give
me some peace,” and he wept into his red silk handkerchief (with a
yellow border) bitterly.
 BORROWING THE MAGAZINE.
Josiah had been to Jonesville, to the post-office and got the last
number of my magazine, and I was just lookin’ at the pictures,
which are always as pretty a pink, when happenin’ to cast my eyes
out of the window, I saw Miss Gowdey and her little boy comin’ up
the road.
Now, some children I am attached to, and some I ain’t; and, when
I ain’t, I don’t want to touch ’em with a 40-foot pole. Or—I don’t
know—sometimes I would like to touch ’em with one. I have seen
children that was so sweet-looking and innocent, that it seemed as if
they wouldn’t want much fixin’-over to make angels of ’em; but
Johnny Gowdey would want an awful sight done to him, to make an
angel of him. Thomas Jefferson says he had as leave have a young
tornado let loose on the farm as to have him come here a-visitin’—
and his mother always brings him.
Wal, as I said, I see ’em comin’ up the road; and, jest as I
expected, they came up to the door and knocked. I got up and
opened the door, and set ’em some chairs, and sez I: “Lay off your
things, won’t you?”
Sez she: “I can’t stop long.” But she sot about half an hour; and,
jest before she went, she took up the magazine, the Christmas
number it was, that lay on the stand, and sez she: “I should be
dreadful glad to borrer this for a day or 2.”
“I hain’t read a word in it,” sez I, “fer I jest got it.”
“Should you be likely to read any in it to-night?” sez she. I told her
I didn’t know as I should. “Wall,” sez she, “if you’ll let me take it, I’ll
send it home by to-morrow noon at the outside, and I’ll try not to let
you come after it, as you have your other ones.”
 “I suppose you can take it,” sez I, in a cold tone; “but I wish you
would be careful of it, for I want to get ’em bound.”
She said she would lay it right on to the parlor-table, and, when
she read in it, she would hold a paper around it. Sez I: “You needn’t
do that,” and I must confess, from that very minute I had my mind. I
always mistrust folks that are 2 good; there is a mejum course that I
rather see folks pursue. I always love to see folks begin as they can
hold out, and folks that are 2 good hardly ever hold out. When I see
such folks, I always think of the poor sick woman that lay sufferin’ in
total darkness for a week, vainly urgin’ her husband to buy some
candles, till finally he went, one night, when she was asleep, and
bought 12 candles, and lit ’em all and sot ’em in a row in front of her
bed. She, dreamin’ of conflegrations, widly started up to see what
was the matter, and sunk back, sayin’ in low and faint axents:
“Daddy, when you are good, you are 2 good.”
When Miss Gowdey said she would keep it on the parlor table, I
had my doubts, and when she said she would hold a paper round it
when she read it, I thought more’n as likely as not the book was
lost; but I didn’t say nothin’, I kep’ in, and done up the book and
handed it to her. She took a large clean handkercher out of her
pocket, and folded it round it and started up to go.
If you will believe it, it run along as much as 2 or 3 weeks and no
book sent home; and one night, when Josiah and I was a-settin’
there alone—the children was out to one of the neighbors’—I jest
broke out, and sez I:
“It is a shameful piece of business, and I won’t stan’ it.”
“What is the matter?” sez Josiah, layin’ down his new paper.
“Miss Gowdey is the matter! My magazine is the matter,” sez I.
“There she has kep’ it ’most 3 weeks, and she knew I hadn’t read a
word in it,” sez I. “It is a burnin’ shame.”
“Wal, what made you let it go?” sez he. “Deacon Gowdey is worth
3 times as much as I be. Why don’t they take their own magazines?
What made you let ’em have it?”
 The next day, after I done up my mornin’s work, I went down to
Deacon Gowdey’s; I wanted to know about my magazine. There
wasn’t anybody in the settin’-room, when I went in, but Johnny; he
was settin’ on the floor, playin’ with some pictures.
Sez I: “Where is your ma, Johnny?”
Sez he: “She’s in the kitchen, huskin’ some beans fer dinner; but
see what I’ve got, Aunt Allen,” and he come up in front of me, with
the picture of a woman cut out of a book. As he come up close to
me, and held it up in front of me by the head, I knew it in a minute;
it come out of my magazine—it was the very handsomest figger in
the fashion plate. For a minute, I was speechless; but these
thoughts raged tumultuously through my brain: “If the child is father
to the man, as I heard Thomas Jefferson readin’ about, here is a
parent that I would like to have the care of fer a short time.” At this
crisis in my thoughts, he spoke up agin:
“I am goin’ to cut her petticoats down into pantaloons, and paint
some whiskers on her face and make a pirate of her.”
Then the feelin’s I had long curbed broke forth, and I said to him
in awful tones: “You will be a pirate yourself, young man, if you keep
on—a bloody pirate on the high seas,” sez I. “What do you mean by
tearin’ folks’es books to pieces in this way?”
Just at this minute, Miss Gowdey came in, and heerd my last
words. She jest said: “How d’ye do?” to me, and then she went at
Johnny:
“You awful child, you! How dare you touch that book? How dare
you unlock the parlor-door, and climb up on the best table, and take
the clean paper off of it, or handle it? How dare you, John Wesley?”
“You give it to me yourself, ma; you know you did, last night,
when the minister was here. You said, if I wouldn’t tease fer any
more honey, you’d lem’me take it. And can’t I have some honey
now? Say, ma, can’t you gim’me some?”